Football Power Index – Page 11

How the latest Football Power Index has LSU finishing over final three

How the FPI sees the season finishing

The LSU Tigers go into the final stretch of the season with three home games. On the road this year, they finished 1-4 while winning three of four at home. That is a good thing for the Tigers. They still have an opportunity to finish out with a .500 season and a bowl game on the line.

Not exactly where some thought they would be, present company included. They have two winnable games and one that looks less so as the weeks roll by. Texas A&M started slow but seems like they have figured it out as they catapulted themselves near the top 10.

Whether or not this team sees bowl season could very well come down to how they look against an Arkansas team that already earned bowl eligibility. We look at the updated Football Power Index from ESPN. Currently, they have LSU ranked No. 41 overall.

A look at how ESPN’s FPI sees the season finishing

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Florida finally takes a dive in ESPN’s Football Power Index

Florida’s loss to South Carolina was finally enough to drop it out of the top 10.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has been inexplicably high on the Gators all season. Even as the team dropped games to Kentucky, LSU and Georgia, it remained in the FPI top 10.

But everything fell apart on Saturday night. The Gators had no answer for SEC bottom-feeder South Carolina, who absolutely dominated it en route to a 40-17 win at home. The loss leaves the program facing some hard questions about its future, and finally, Florida has dropped in the FPI from No. 8 to No. 20.

Still, this is significantly higher than the Gators probably deserve based on the way they’ve played. They rank above two 8-1 teams in Oregon and Michigan State, and UF, alongside Texas (which ranks one spot above it) are the only two teams with a losing record in the top 25.

ESPN still gives Florida a roughly 65% chance of winning out, but that percentage has dropped quite a bit after the showing on Saturday night, and the team should be significantly less confident in games at Missouri and vs. Florida State at home.

The Gators appear to be full-on spiraling, and this probably won’t be their last drop in the rankings.

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ESPN’s Football Power Index still loves the 4-4 Gators

Somehow, the 4-4 Gators remain in the top 10 of ESPN’s FPI.

There’s been an interesting disconnect this season between the product Florida puts out on the field and the way that advanced analytics systems view the team. The Gators are 4-4, are struggling mightily on defense and have seen the explosiveness of their offense decrease in recent weeks.

Still, Florida ranks in the top 10 of the SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, and ESPN’s Football Power Index feels the same way, ranking Florida eighth in the latest edition.

Its projected record (7.5-4.5) is the lowest of any team ranked in the top 10, and somehow, the Gators prevail, ranking ahead of teams like Auburn, Clemson and Iowa State, and just behind the likes of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Michigan.

One reason for this could be something that Dan Mullen has harped on a bit too much for Gators fans’ liking this year: The fact that the team has outgained every opponent this season.

While yards don’t equate to points, that is certainly abnormal and just given the numbers, you would not expect this Florida team to be sitting at .500 right now.

The defense stats don’t exactly capture how porous Todd Grantham’s unit has been this year, and offensively, the team has consistently ranked among the best this year thanks to a change in identity to focus on the run game.

Of course, FPI doesn’t mean anything if you don’t win games, and Florida is heading to a disappointing finish. But based on the way the team is viewed by FPI and other analytics systems, it stands to reason this team is a bit more unlucky than your average 4-4 team.

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Arkansas doesn’t even have a 60 percent chance to beat Mississippi State

ESPN’s Football Power Index thinks Saturday’s Arkansas-Mississippi State game will be close.

Arkansas’ season doesn’t exactly hinge on its outcome against Mississippi State on Saturday. But it isn’t far off, either.

Fresh off a bye week, Arkansas is healthy and ready to become bowl-eligible (in a full 12-game season) for the first time since 2016. A win against the Bulldogs in Week 10 in Fayetteville would do that. A loss, though, might make the sledding awfully tough in the final three weeks.

The good news for Arkansas faithful is the Razorbacks have, per ESPN’s Football Power Index, a 59.5% chance of beating Mississippi State. The wild thing is, though, Mike Leach’s team is actually the higher rated team. In the Worldwide Leader’s algorithm, anyway.

Mississippi State checked in at No. 28 in the FPI, jumping six spots after beating Kentucky over the weekend. Arkansas, which was off, went up two spots, as well, to No. 31. The difference is largely negligible, of course, but one of which to note. Mississippi State’s chances in the game grew higher after it knocked off the Wildcats.

ESPN’s data projects both teams to finish 7-5. Arkansas sits at 5-3 now and Mississippi State is the same. The Bulldogs are, though, are two games better in SEC play having beaten Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, as well. Arkansas’ lone in-conference win came against the Aggies back in September.

The Bulldogs winning Saturday would be an upset, but only by the most modest calculations. But Arkansas, with Alabama and LSU (on the road) the following two weeks, really could breath easier about the postseason if it avoided any such result.

Anticipate a tight one inside Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium.

ESPN’s Football Power Index inexplicably loves the Gators despite 4-3 record

The Gators are somehow still a top-10 team in FPI.

Florida’s 2021 season has been an abject disappointment. Losing at home to Alabama by two points after engineering an impressive comeback is one thing, but road losses to Kentucky and LSU are much less justifiable. The Gators sit at just 4-3, and with a matchup against No. 1 Georgia coming up next week, 8-4 seems like this team’s likely ceiling.

But don’t tell that to ESPN’s Football Power Index. Analytics systems don’t usually line up exactly one-to-one with human voters, but the difference between UF’s standing in the polls and in the FPI is a staggering one.

Despite its record, Florida is ranked as the No. 7 team in FPI, and it even saw its ranking rise one spot during the bye week. Only two SEC teams rank higher: Georgia and Alabama, who are No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.

FPI clearly has a lot of respect for the SEC, but what’s interesting is that while it’s high on the Gators, it’s not nearly as high on the teams that beat them. LSU and Kentucky rank 32nd and 36th, and even with those losses on the resume, Florida has essentially maintained a top-10 spot throughout the season.

UF definitely doesn’t look like a top-10 team right now, but there’s obviously something about this squad the analytics like. If there’s anything that can provide encouragement heading into a game against UGA in which it will be heavy underdogs, it’s that.

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FPI projects Notre Dame-USC outcome

Do you think Saturday’s game come down to the final minutes?

As frustrating as Notre Dame has been through the first six games of 2021 I feel safe in stating a few things about them:

They’re a good but not great team
Their flaws being as obvious as they are frustrating to see because they’ve been evident almost weekly
Like the majority of the time since 2017, this team is going to win a lot simply because they rarely do something to beat themselves (Cincinnati game obviously withstanding)

With all of that in mind, and the fact that the rival USC Trojans are just 3-3 and again playing under an interim head coach as they travel to South Bend, it’s not a surprise to see Notre Dame as an overwhelming favorite in Saturday’s game according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

FPI Projection: Notre Dame 77.3% chance to win

I will note that I find the FPI rankings system to be largely absurd but do find value in their individual game projections the deeper into the season we get.

A win would give Notre Dame their fourth-straight over the Trojans which would be the longest winning streak for the Irish since taking 11-straight from 1983-1993.

Notre Dame-USC: Fun facts from epic college football rivalry

Notre Dame’s statistical leaders through first six games

Florida sees a fall but still ranks highly in FPI after loss to LSU

Florida somehow remains in the top 10 of ESPN’s Football Power Index even after the LSU loss.

Florida fell to just 4-3 on the season with Saturday’s frustrating road loss against the LSU Tigers. UF entered as double-digit favorites against a team that was decimated by injuries and had already begun the process of divorcing from its head coach, but that wasn’t enough to score a win in Baton Rouge.

The Gators lost 49-42, and they had to turn to redshirt freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson to lead the comeback effort after Emory Jones threw a pick-six to start the second half.

There are a lot of questions surrounding this team, which allowed a record-setting day to LSU’s ground game despite entering the game as one of the worst in the FBS. But while UF fell in ESPN’s Football Power Index, it wasn’t a major drop.

In fact, Florida still ranks in the top 10 of FPI, coming in at No. 8. It’s the only three-loss team in the top 10, and no team ranked above it has more than one loss. This is likely partially due to the fact that all of UF’s losses came by one score and the Gators have outgained their opponent in every loss.

But yardage totals don’t win games, and even though ESPN’s FPI thinks that Florida is a good team, that won’t change the fact that its goals for the postseason are essentially out of reach now.

FPI clearly thinks this is a better team than the record shows, but at some point, you actually have to win games. And with an impending matchup against No. 1 Georgia, 8-4 feels like the best-case scenario.

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Updated Football Power Index: LSU finds a way to get bowl eligible?

The final five games will decide bowl eligibility, can the Tigers win two more games?

It is really hard to get a handle on what to expect from the LSU Tigers after watching this team for seven games. They are 4-3 (2-2) after an improbable victory over the Florida Gators, a team no one thought would lose that game.

The Tigers looked like a team that gave everything to save the job of their head coach. Ed Orgeron’s group came out and outdueled a pair of Florida quarterbacks that threw four interceptions in the game.

Ty Davis-Price and the offensive line have been under heavy criticism for most of the season. After back-to-back 140+ yard performances from the junior running back, has the offense figured out how to run the ball once again?

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With five games remaining on the schedule, can LSU become bowl eligible? ESPN’s Football Power Index breaks down their chances by win probability.

ESPN’s Football Power Index still likes the 4-2 Gators

Here’s where Florida stands in the latest FPI update.

Florida’s loss to Kentucky two weeks ago was a hard one to swallow. It likely ended any chance at winning the SEC for Florida, let alone making its first College Football Playoff appearance.

But with that being said, this is still a very competitive football team, and it’s one that the analytics seem to like. Florida ranks fourth in the SP+ rankings, and in the latest update to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Gators rank No. 6.

UF ranks just above three other two-loss teams in Clemson, Texas and Iowa State, and it’s just behind a pair of undefeated teams Oklahoma and Michigan.

Still, Florida’s projected record stands at just 8.5-3.5, and FPI only gives the Gators an 8.8% chance to win out. That’s likely because in two weeks, they draw the No. 1 team in FPI in the Georgia Bulldogs.

That game and this week’s road matchup at LSU, who ranks No. 38 in FPI, present the two toughest remaining games on Florida’s schedule.

SEC West is there for Arkansas’ taking, but the odds are long

Arkansas doesn’t have much of a chance to make the College Football Playoff. But that chance isn’t zero.

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Arkansas football can win the SEC West this year. No doubt about it. The math works.

However, it only works if you squint your eyes and some other things fall into place.

FiveThirtyEight released its data Tuesday on the likeliest teams to make the College Football Playoff. Arkansas finds itself lower in such a hierarchy than the Razorbacks do in the Associated Press or AFCA USA TODAY Coaches Poll rankings.

The Hogs have the 25th best odds.

Arkansas is ranked ahead of Arizona State in both polls and ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Sun Devils, however, have a better chance to find themselves in the Playoff by virtue of playing weaker competition week-in and week-out in the PAC 12. Arkansas has the 21st hardest schedule remaining in FBS. Arizona State has the 64th most difficult. Thus, the slotting.

If the Razorbacks were to beat Auburn on Saturday, which the FPI gives them a 60% chance to do, the Hogs’ chance to make the Playoff increases from 1% to 2%.

A loss, on the other hand, drops those odds to less than 1%, all but finishing Arkansas’ chance.

Needless to say, the 11 a.m. CT kickoff with the Tigers on Saturday is huge, not for Arkansas’ long Playoff odds, but for stacking themselves among college football’s elite.