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Lions vs. Jaguars: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Jaguars: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 11 matchup in Ford Field

This Sunday’s morning coffee brings back reflections of the last time the Lions played the Jaguars. That meeting in December of 2022 was the first time Dan Campbell’s Lions played like a great team.

Those Lions blew out a Jaguars team that would go on to win a playoff game. Detroit has never looked back. Adding significantly more talent on both sides of the ball and growing the impressive young core has made the Lions a viable Super Bowl contender. At 8-1, the Lions welcome back a Jaguars team that is a rotting shell of the sprightly crew that was on the business end of the 40-14 beatdown two years ago.

Why I think the Lions will win

Barring another fluky five-turnover performance from Jared Goff, the Lions passing offense should be able to hit big plays against the Jaguars. Goff’s five INT anomaly in Week 10 matches the entire season volume from Jacksonville’s defense in 10 games; they’re not a team that creates takeaways or stresses the ball well in either run or pass defense. And they don’t have anyone who can effectively mark Amon-Ra St. Brown working the intermediate part of the field.

If the Jaguars shift to compensate, then they don’t have any answer for Jameson Williams over the top. Or Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield on a quick swing pass. Or Brock Wright leaking out the back side on a delayed TE release. Or David Montgomery on a sprint draw play behind Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler, with Penei Sewell having already cleared out the linebacker.

In short, the Lions offensive diversity presents overwhelming issues for a Jaguars defense that got torched for 35 points by the Bears (!!) not too long ago.

Flip the side to Jacksonville’s offense. Trevor Lawrence might not be worth his astronomical salary, but Lawrence is at least a quality starting QB who has some real ability. He’s out, replaced by panicky, immobile, slow-to-throw Mac Jones. That’s a very poor fit with a replacement left tackle in Walker Little trying to fill in for injured starter Cam Robinson. Just for good measure, top RB Tank Bigsby is also out with an injury.

Even if they all played, the Lions defense still matches up well with a slow-paced offense that tries a little too hard to generate big plays. They might hit a couple, even with Jones at the helm. But asking this Jacksonville offense to keep pace with Detroit on the scoreboard is not a conducive path to victory for the visitors.

The Lions do the little things so much better, so much more frequently than the Jaguars. Things like third down offense and defense, red zone offense and defense, ball security, first-down rushing offense and defense. The 14-point spread in the odds reflects the relative confidence in the ability of each team to play to its capacity.

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What worries me about the Jaguars

I’ll be honest on this one. Not much concerns me about the Jaguars, not if the Lions take them seriously and play even a B-minus game or higher. There just isn’t enough breadth of impact talent on the Jaguars roster to compete with the Lions — if Detroit is focused and plays hard for four quarters.

That’s not to say the Jaguars are bereft of talent or ability. Their defensive front can cause some problems. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker are an athletic pass-rush combo that can impact the quarterback. Walker (7 sacks) and Hines-Allen (5.5) can each defeat good blocking and take advantage of missteps by the offensive line. Roy Robertson-Harris is the type of nationally underappreciated interior presence who can make a name for himself, too. He’s better than most Lions fans will expect him to be.

The Jaguars linebackers might be the fastest combo in the league. It doesn’t mean they tackle all that well (notably Ventrell Miller) or cover well (notably Devin Lloyd), but they do create some issues with their overall speed and ability to be where the offense doesn’t want them to be. With Sam LaPorta out, it makes life for the Jacksonville LBs a lot easier.

I’d be remiss to not mention Jaguars rookie wideout Brian Thomas. He’s been consistently outstanding, a legit No. 1 target and playmaker already. His size, speed and confident panache make Thomas a major potential problem. The Jaguars have a pair of quality pass-catching tight ends in Brenston Strange and Evan Engram, too. If they get anything from the likes of Christian Kirk or Gabe Davis, even Mac Jones can make some hay against a very good Lions secondary.

Final score prediction

The Lions have the better unit in every phase of this matchup against the Jaguars. As long as Detroit doesn’t get cute playing with its food, this shouldn’t be a stressful Sunday for Lions fans.

Lions 36, Jaguars 13

Lions vs. Packers: Last minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Packers: Last minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 9 battle in the NFC North

The phrase “football weather” conjures up visions of crisp autumn afternoons, with a chill in the air and maybe a little rain, perhaps a good end of the field from the wind. For the first time this season, the Detroit Lions will experience football weather.

The seasonable conditions in Green Bay make forecasting the late-afternoon game between the Lions and Packers more difficult. Between the unpredictability of Mother Nature and the end of daylight savings time, it’s something of a discombobulated Sunday morning in figuring out who will win this game.

The 6-1 Lions can win–and win big. The 6-2 Packers can also win–and win emphatically. Detroit is rightly favored, but how will it play out?

Why I think the Lions will win

The high-powered Lions offense can outscore anyone, anywhere. And I think the catalyst behind why Ben Johnson’s offense is so dominant has shifted as the 2024 season has progressed. It used to be the offensive line, but now the primary impetus is the play of Jared Goff at quarterback.

Goff is playing as well as any player in the league, regardless of position. The fact he’s doing it at the most important position is a huge reason why the Lions are approaching offensive juggernaut status. The precision. The field vision. The preternatural calmness in the face of defensive chaos. Goff is very deserving of the NFL MVP talk.

That offensive line is still great, too. The left side has been a little shaky lately, but overall, Hank Fraley’s veteran line is as good as it gets. In Green Bay, they’ll need to prove it in the run game. Because that’s the clearest path to victory for Detroit this afternoon.

Run the bleeping ball. Ram it down Green Bay’s throat with the lethal combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Have Penei Sewell, Frank Ragnow and friends push the Packers line around, using the unsure footing in the soggy tundra to their advantage. I’m confident Ben Johnson will deploy that as a primary game plan.

It’s helped by the Packers scheme, which doesn’t blitz often. On the surface, that would seem more pertinent to the pass protection, but the run game can benefit from knowing that the Packers rely heavily on their linebackers and safeties to make reactive plays, not proactively attacking. That plays directly into the hands of the Lions offense — especially in the inclement footing and weather.

That also plays into the play-action that Goff and his receivers do so well. Green Bay’s linebackers are pretty solid, and quite fast to close. But if they get sucked up by the run fake, Sam LaPorta can get that much more open in the seam and on out routes, and Amon-Ra St. Brown gets a little more room to operate over the middle and quickly switch from receiver to runner. Nobody does it better.

The iffy status of top Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander should help offset Detroit not having Jameson Williams, who is serving the second of his two-game suspension.

This is also the rare game where the Lions have at least a push at kicker. No disrespect to Jake Bates, but it’s been a process of the first-year Lions kicker earning trust. Bates is doing just that with a heretofore perfect start on field goals. He hasn’t kicked outside before, and that does bring some concern back. However, the Packers are on their second kicker in Brandon McManus. He’s also been perfect in his two games with Green Bay, so maybe the Lions don’t have an advantage, but in Bates we (mostly) trust. Nailing the game-winner in Minnesota with the game plan specifically playing to let Bates kick it did wonders for the young kicker, and also this fan’s faith in him.

What worries me about the Packers

If there is any team that can try to successfully outscore the Lions, it’s Green Bay. Their balanced, well-coordinated offense actually averages more yards per game (388) than Detroit’s, and the Packers are top 10 in both rushing and passing.

Jordan Love has thrown the ball very well, and he’s got a lot of weapons at his disposal. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft all have at least 20 targets, meaning Love isn’t shy about spreading the ball around to his best option–and all those guys are good options. Some are more consistent than others, but the Lions secondary will be challenged by the Packers’ diverse passing offense.

That makes getting to Love with the pass rush and forcing him into the mistakes he’s shown he will make an imperative for Aaron Glenn’s defense. They’ll need to do that with Levi Onwuzurike and Al-Quadin Muhammad as the EDGEs thanks to a plethora of injuries. Both are best in small doses, but the extreme lack of depth means they’ll be relied upon to play heavy minutes in unfamiliar field conditions.

They also have to worry about Josh Jacobs, a running back whose style is similar to what Detroit saw last week in Tony Pollard–who had an impressively productive day against the Lions’ stingy run defense. The Packers use Reed as a running weapon nicely, and Love can get outside the pocket and run a little (though his gimpy groin might hinder that).

The Packers defense gives up a lot of yards, but they’re very good at creating takeaways and capitalizing on mistakes. Green Bay leads the league in creating turnovers; 19 takeaways in eight games is no fluke. One of the reasons the Packers have a relatively low team tackling grade from PFF is that they attack the ball more than they try to end the play. Gibbs and especially Goff (4 fumbles in two games) need to be vigilant in protecting the ball from prying Packers punches.

Green Bay upgraded at defensive coordinator in dumping one-time Lions flop Joe Barry and replacing him with the more creative, more teaching-oriented Jeff Hafley. Ben Johnson hasn’t seen Hafley’s defense before, and that might lead to some feeling-out process and a slow start for Detroit’s offense. I don’t think the Lions can afford many empty possessions in this one.

Final score prediction

This one’s tough. I think the first team to 20 points wins, and these are two of the best first-quarter offenses in the league. I trust Jared Goff to make fewer mistakes than Jordan Love, especially if the Packers are pressing to score from behind. It’s up to the Lions dilapidated defense to force that scenario, and that’s a tough ask in Green Bay.

Lions 36, Packers 34

Lions vs. Titans: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Titans: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 8 matchup in Ford Field

It’s a wonderful football Sunday here in Michigan. The morning coffee cuts through the chilly air. It’s hoodie and hat weather, and I’m repping the Lions with each.

The Detroit Lions welcome the Titans from Tennessee to this beautiful fall day. Of course, playing in the dome in Ford Field sort of negates the autumnal charm of the Great Lakes. Then again, Dan Campbell’s 5-1 Lions aren’t looking to make the Titans trip enjoyable–nor should they.

Why I think the Lions will win

Tennessee enters the game with a 1-5 record, thanks in large part to a heretofore dreadful offense that is plagued by turnovers and awful quarterback play from Will Levis and (last week) Mason Rudolph. They’re dead last in passing yards per game despite having an impressive (on paper) receiving corps in Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Hopkins (now gone) and TE Chig Okonkwo, plus versatile RB Tony Pollard.

Quarterback play has been bad, but so has pass protection. Tennessee ranks 26th in sack percentage allowed and 27th in pass-blocking grades from PFF, with first-round rookie LT JC Latham really struggling early on. The new offense under rookie head coach Brian Callahan hasn’t clicked yet.

All that is to say — this is not an offense that can outscore Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions offense. Even without Jameson Williams, the Lions have more than enough firepower to win a shootout against Tennessee. And the Titans seem quite averse to trying to even try to get into a shootout with their offense.

Even with the banged-up Lions pass rush, this is not the kind of offense or team mindset that can effectively exploit the Detroit vulnerability. The Lions run defense remains very good, though they do remain somewhat susceptible to runners like Pollard who can cut back at full speed and read blocks well.

Back to that Lions offense. With Goff playing as well as any quarterback in the league right now, this should be a game where the Lions can score 30-plus points. Tennessee’s defense isn’t bad at all, but they also haven’t seen a precise, creative, balanced unit like the Lions yet. Goff’s unfailing willingness to take what the defense gives him and the diverse barrage of weapons at his disposal are capable of quickly frustrating the Titans defense.

What worries me about the Titans

Tennessee continues to sport an impressive defensive line, even with former coach Terrell Williams now in Detroit. Jeffery Simmons is as good as it gets on the interior. Massive rookie T’Vondre Sweat effectively and actively takes up a lot of space. Sweat is questionable for the game, but if he plays, the inside-out runs and delayed handoffs will not work well for Detroit’s offense. Their linebackers play well behind the duo, too–even without Ernest Jones. Any hesitation from the RBs will not end well for Gibbs or Montgomery.

Despite trading Hopkins, the Titans receivers still do have some real talent. Ridley is playing better than his stats would indicate, and Tyler Boyd is a tough matchup over the middle. Okonkwo and Pollard are both excellent receivers who can make the first tackler miss, so the Lions LBs and safeties will need to stay disciplined and alert.

I do have some concerns about the pass rush, or lack thereof. Al-Quadin Muhammad is Detroit’s top EDGE in this game, but he comes from the practice squad and hasn’t played in a game since 2022. If coordinator Aaron Glenn tries too hard to scheme up the rush, it does take away from the coverage but especially the tackling and containment after the catch, and that’s where these Titans receivers can win.

Then there’s the more abstract. It’s hard for a team to get such consistently bad play from players who do seem to have some real ability. That starts with Will Levis, who is effective in a Baker Mayfield kind of way until he makes truly ponderous decisions and terrible throws at the least opportune times. Their cornerbacks are solid but don’t always play to their potential. Perhaps missing L’Jarius Sneed will provide an opportunity for a heretofore unheralded defensive back to step up and make a name. Tennessee is overdue for something like that to happen.

And, of course, the history factor. The Lions have never beaten the Titans. Most of the games have been more about Detroit finding ways to lose than the Titans being that much better (2008 excepted). History must be respected before repeating it can be avoided.

Final score prediction

This is the “easiest” game left on the Lions schedule. Worry about a trap game if you will, but I believe that Dan Campbell and his staff will avoid falling victim to overconfidence. It might not result in the lopsided outcome that my Titans Wire colleagues all predicted, but the Lions should win comfortably.

Lions 26, Titans 13

Lions vs. Vikings: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Vikings: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 7 NFC North showdown

This Sunday’s morning coffee precedes a newly rare occurrence. The Detroit Lions play a 1 p.m. game on a Sunday. It’s just the second time all season, and it’s Week 7. As it’s currently 5:57 AM and I’ve got a lot of thoughts about today’s matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, the coffee is definitely flowing.

This will be Detroit’s first time as an underdog in 2024. It’s the first game without dominant EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, too. First divisional game as well, and it’s a big one. A Lions win in Minnesota would elevate Detroit into the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Sure it’s early in the season, but it would still be fantastic to seize the top spot and make someone else come and try to take it. That’s what Dan Campbell is all about, and that’s why Detroit loves him.

But this one will not be easy…

Why I think the Lions will win

I am a believer, without any substantive data to back it up, that in the first game after a team loses a superstar like Hutchinson, the supporting players rise up and compensate well. I think back to a Texans team that lost prime J.J. Watt in Houston’s fifth game of the season, only to come out the next week and bag four sacks and force four takeaways. Lions DT D.J. Reader got one of those sacks–the only one he would record that season.

Heck, the Lions already did that once this year when All-Pro center Frank Ragnow missed the 40-point eruption over Seattle. It shouldn’t be relied upon because I’m sure the long-term data would tell me I’m off-base, but it happens enough that it’s feasible it could happen again.

This Lions defense certainly has that capability. The Vikings don’t have a lot of tape on Pat O’Connor in Detroit, or Isaac Ukwu or Trevor Nowaske. They both played decent enough in Dallas after Hutchinson’s injury to think they can impact this game on a key play or two. It doesn’t take much to facilitate a big play from safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, who might be the best playmaking tandem in the league–especially when playing 2-high looks, which figures to be the base look against an explosive Vikings offense.

It helps that the Lions have scored over 40 points in consecutive games for the first time since before William Clay Ford bought the team over 60 years ago. Granted they played a soft Dallas team in Week 6, but Jared Goff and the offense have been completely dialed in the last two games.

Goff has a nice history playing against Minnesota (4-2 in Detroit), as well as lighting up the creative chaos that is the Brian Flores defensive scheme. Detroit scored exactly 30 points in both meetings last season, both Detroit wins. Goff keeps proving he’s reliable in big games and will find the proper target at the right time, a big key to nullifying the exotic Vikings defense.

It won’t hurt that Minnesota’s best second-level run defender, LB Blake Cashman, is out with an injury. Jahmyr Gibbs should benefit, though David Montgomery could also find a little more running room, too. Both are capable of putting up 75 yards and a touchdown apiece.

What worries me about the Vikings

Playing an unbeaten opponent in their house is never easy, not even in Week 3. It’s Week 7, more than long enough for the Vikings to quiet any naysayers about the validity of their unblemished record. They’re fifth in scoring offense, fourth in scoring defense. They won in Green Bay a week after blowing away a Texans team that would be the No. 2 seed in the AFC if the season ended today — and could very well stay there.

This is a very good football team on both sides of the ball. More to the point, they have offensive and defensive playmakers that can match Detroit’s; exceedingly few teams can lay claim to that. Worse, the Vikings are coming off their bye week. They’re fresh and also had time to prepare more in-depth for a specific opponent in Detroit they desperately want to beat.

Everyone expected the offense to be pretty good, even with journeyman Sam Darnold at quarterback. Justin Jefferson is a legit All-Pro weapon at wideout, and Aaron Jones is a very effective and versatile running back. Jordan Addison is a dangerous No. 2 wideout, with Jailen Nailor an effective role player in support. Minnesota’s offensive line isn’t to Detroit’s level, but the Vikings unit features two really good tackles and a strong center (sound familiar?).

It’s the defensive playmaking from the Vikings that has surprised me. They’re a very well-conceived unit, with smart addition Jonathan Greenard nicely balancing Patrick Jones, the best pass rusher most Lions fans have never heard of. They’ve combined for nine sacks. LB Andrew Van Ginkel is a perfect fit in Brian Flores’ defense, capable of playing in coverage or rushing the passer from any pre-snap alignment. He’s got three sacks and two pick-sixes as a variable catalyst who is very difficult to read. Their corners have been more reliable in coverage this year, and Minnesota might have the best-tackling secondary in the NFL. They’re the best first-quarter defense in the league, meaning they’re good at playing with a lead and turning up the pressure even more.

I do think Flores’ defense has its vulnerabilities. It’s a unit that relies heavily on takeaways and offensive mistakes. Jared Goff has done well in playing smart and avoiding the no-scope-360 errors. As noted above, the Lions ground-and-pound with the offensive line leading Gibbs and Montgomery is a great solution for attacking it. Minnesota is ripe for the picking with a good No. 2 TE like Brock Wright and a deep shot to Jameson Williams against the blitz.

That was true against Tampa Bay, too. You might not want to remember Week 2, but that was a game where the Lions–specifically OC Ben Johnson–decided not to take advantage of any of their matchup advantages. Detroit lost that one to a Buccaneers team that isn’t close to as potent as Minnesota because the Lions offense got away from its identity.

I need to see Johnson prove to me he’s not going to make that mistake again. If Jared Goff throws over 40 nickel-and-dime times in this one (he threw 55 times for just 307 yards vs. TB), that plane ride back to Detroit is apt to be a solemn one.

Minnesota also happens to have found itself a kicker in rookie Will Reichard. The former clutch Alabama kicker is perfect on the season, including a 58-yarder. The Vikings punter, Ryan Wright, is very good at preventing returns and pinning teams deep in conjunction with a well-coached coverage unit. Read as: no free yards from special teams.

Final score prediction

Like most everyone, I think these are the two best teams in the NFC. Detroit playing this game without all the recently injured pass rushers, and Minnesota playing at home coming off a bye week, is enough to make me think the Vikings will prevail. Barely…

Vikings 29, Lions 27

Lions and Cowboys: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions and Cowboys: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 6 game in Dallas

It’s been a few Sundays since the Lions played, what with the bye week and a Monday night game. It’s nice to have the Sunday morning coffee to sip in the chilly Michigan autumn and conjure up some thoughts on Detroit’s game in Dallas later this afternoon.

It should be a good game. Lions fans get their first taste of Tom Brady calling a game, and it’s the featured matchup across the country in the late window. What a great opportunity for Dan Campbell’s Lions to show their mettle coming out of the bye and prove they belong among the NFL’s elite at this juncture of the 2024 season.

Why I think the Lions will win

This one is simple: the run game. The Lions are a top-10 run offense, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Only three teams run the ball more frequently than the Lions do (32.9 attempts per game) with the talented combo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s a consistent attack built around one of the NFL’s best offensive lines–one that returns All-Pro center Frank Ragnow in the middle after missing Detroit’s last game.

That matches up against a Dallas run defense that has not been good. In fact, the Cowboys have the lowest PFF team grade in run defense, and they also rank near the bottom in tackling grade, too. Their linebackers are very speed-based, and they play behind a dilapidated line that doesn’t make many plays. This sets up as a game where both Montgomery and Gibbs can top 75 rushing yards and each score a touchdown.

Then there’s the flip side. Detroit’s defense against running backs remains the NFL’s best; the Lions still give up a lot of yards to opposing QBs that run, but no team allows a lower yards per carry to RBs on first downs (2.9) than the Lions run defense. They face a Dallas run offense that barely tries. The Cowboys run the ball less than all but one team, and one reason might be their anemic 3.5 YPC, also 31st in the league.

Without their top three pass rushers, notably Micah Parsons, the Dallas pass rush isn’t nearly as foreboding. They still have some talent, but this is a game where Jared Goff should have some opportunities down the field on play action. Old friend Amani Oruwariye figures to match up against Jameson Williams, and it could remind Lions fans why the team gave up on Oruwariye and have a much better secondary for it, too.

Aidan Hutchinson has a great matchup today, too. The Cowboys offensive line has been rebuilt, and it’s a lot better on the interior than at tackle. Hutchinson leads the NFL in sacks even though he’s played one fewer game than almost everyone, and his pressure rate and pass rush win rate are off the charts. Tackles Tyler Guyton and Terrence Steele are eminently beatable. As a bonus, the Dallas tight ends are among the worst in pass protection, too. If the Lions get anything at all from the other side opposite Hutchinson, it’s going to be a long day for Dak Prescott.

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What worries me about the Cowboys

We’ll start where we just left off: Dak Prescott. He’s a very good quarterback, one who has played very well against Detroit. Prescott is 5-0 against Detroit, completing over 67 percent of his passes and throwing 11 TDs against just one INT. His career QB Rating against Detroit (118.6) is higher than against any other team.

Even though Dallas can’t run the ball, it’s still a dangerous offense around Prescott, too. The Cowboys seem aware they can’t run and often eschew it, which puts a lot of pressure on the opposing secondary. CeeDee Lamb is an elite receiver who can win all over the field, and he and Prescott are in lockstep. Tight end Jake Ferguson is a good receiver, too. Their backs can catch and turn it up quickly, as well.

I’d be negligent if I didn’t bring up the officiating. Too many Lions-Cowboys games have been impacted by controversial (read: bad) officiating, including last year’s game, where referee Brad Allen decided Dallas should win.

In a close game, kicking matters. It’s hard to trust Lions greenhorn Jake Bates at this point; the track record just isn’t there. His Dallas counterpart, Brandon Aubrey, has already made a 65-yard FG this year and is 7-of-8 from beyond 50 yards this season. He’s quickly become the NFL’s best distance kicker, and that can be the difference in the game.

Final score prediction

It’s hard to forecast a win in Dallas, even with the Lions favored. Once bitten, twice shy is an apropos theme song. Still, Detroit has the better offense and the better defense as the two teams meet today. Barring some unexpected bye-week rust or OC Ben Johnson outsmarting himself, the Lions should be able to outscore the Cowboys in Dallas and run away with an impressive road win over a likely playoff foe.

Lions 30, Cowboys 24

Lions vs. Seahawks: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Seahawks: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 4 matchup on Monday Night Football

It’s a beautiful morning as dawn just begins to creep up and the steam from my coffee wakes the body. The light from my laptop is brighter than the slowly rising sun as I write this. It’s Lions football day, as odd as that still seems.

For years, the Lions didn’t get primetime attention. As someone who typically goes to bed around 9:30, that suited me fine. Now that the team is successful and, dare I say, high-profile, it’s a fun new adjustment to earning these nontraditional starting times.

Here’s what’s rattling around my Lions brain about tonight’s Monday Night Football showdown with the unbeaten Seattle Seahawks as I enjoy the morning coffee.

Why I think the Lions will win

The matchup of the Lions rushing offense against the Seahawks dilapidated defensive front should be one Detroit can exploit. Even with Frank Ragnow out, and that definitely hurts the Lions’ run offense, the combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should still find some room to run. Montgomery especially should be effective because of his ability to power through the first contact; Seattle’s linebackers and safeties are solid, but they’re not the types who can slow down what Montgomery offers in the B-gaps and certainly not with top DTs Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams out.

Aidan Hutchinson should be able to continue his Defensive Player of the Year front-runner status and impact the Seattle offense. Charles Cross is a good left tackle, but the Seahawks will start Stone Forsythe at right tackle and old friend Laken Tomlinson at left guard. Those are both prime attack points for Hutchinson, and DL coach Terrell Williams has shown he can vary alignments to get No. 97 in favorable matchups. This could be a big night for Levi Onwuzurike and his power-based game on the outside, too. Seattle has been vulnerable to the “heavy” EDGEs who can reset the line against the run.

The ability to win on both sides of the ball on first downs should set up the Lions to capitalize on third downs. Detroit has been very good on third downs on offense (45.2%–4th in the league) and defense (25.8%–3rd). About the only area the Seahawks offense has struggled is on third downs (36.8%–19th) and that’s because they’re not great at running the ball on first downs (3.6 yards per attempt–23rd). As long as LBs Jack Campbell and Alex Anzalone remain sharp against the run, the Lions defense can set up some third-and-longs that give the pass rush some chances to create big plays.

What worries me about the Seahawks

This is a good football team. I know, I know–they’ve played a cakewalk schedule. They’ve also feasted on that schedule, which is exactly what a good team does in playing inferior opponents.

Lesser Seattle teams than this edition have given the Lions fits lately, including last year. They play their own way and tend to dictate how the game flow goes, and that’s been a problem for this Lions coaching staff. These are the exact types of games where Detroit OC Ben Johnson gets away from basics and tries to prove things he doesn’t need to. They’re the types where Lions DC Aaron Glenn winds up being too reactive and doesn’t stick to his guns in man coverage and creative pass rushes. Geno Smith has a way of doing that to opposing teams.

I worry very much that the Lions will miss safety Brian Branch in this one. Seattle has three dangerous wide receivers, and Smith has proven he plays no favorites in getting the ball where it needs to go. Likely Branch replacement Brandon Joseph has struggled with tackling going back to college, and now he gets his primetime baptism with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett?! Suboptimal, to say the least.

Back to the recent success Seattle has had against the Lions for a minute…

I’m a believer that those sorts of things build upon themselves. Success begets success. Smith specifically is a very difficult matchup for the Lions because he’s a lot like Goff–smart, precise, flexible of mind and target–but he’s also capable of running a little if that door opens. He’s got tremendous confidence in his teammates and their ability to overcome challenges and win, and they’ve done it before in Detroit.

Final score prediction

I expect a tightly played, back-and-forth game between two teams that look like they could meet again in late January. The Lions will win if they’re better in the red zone and avoid giving up big plays. Alas, I just don’t feel it playing out that way.

Seahawks 23, Lions 21

Lions vs. Buccaneers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Buccaneers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 2 matchup in Ford Field

It’s Week 2 of the NFL season, yet it still feels very much like summer around the upper Midwest. As I sit with my Sunday morning coffee just before 7 a.m., it’s already 62 degrees on the way to near 90.

The unseasonably hot weather reminds many folks around Michigan of Florida. That’s a fitting sentiment as the Detroit Lions welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Ford Field later this afternoon. The fans packing the rafters in the home of the Lions will not give the visitors from Florida a warm welcome as the two teams renew a rekindling rivalry.

Detroit beat the Bucs in the NFC Divisional Round, 31-23. Both teams are gunning to go 2-0 and maintain their supremacy in their respective NFC divisions. It’s a big game for the early season.

Why I think the Lions will win

It’s normally considered trite to lead with injuries to the opponent, but the loss of safety Antoine Winfield Jr. in the middle of the Buccaneers defense cannot be overstated. He’s their best player and Winfield plays a position that is hypercritical to stopping Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta from exploiting the middle of the field in the passing game.

Pair that with injuries at outside cornerback, where the Bucs will be quite shorthanded even if Zyon McCollum is cleared from his brain injury to play. Tampa’s secondary might remind some Lions fans of Detroit’s own inadequate patchwork in the early Dan Campbell years. Tyrek Funderburk and Tavierre Thomas each playing significant roles against a Lions passing attack that is looking to bounce back from a subpar overall Week 1 is a recipe for Goff and St. Brown to get right quickly.

I also like the scheduling quirk. After playing the Rams last week, the Lions draw a Bucs team with new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. He’s a progeny of the Sean McVay/Rams offensive system. A familiar system, one the Lions played against just last week.

Tampa Bay is very talented, no doubt about it. But the basic scheme and style of play the Bucs bring isn’t much different from what the Lions played in Week 1. No radical changes of approach, no real divergent attack. Both offenses are based on having two very skilled primary outside wide receivers, a quarterback who makes quick, good decisions, and a run game that is meant to be a good complementary weapon, not a feature. Game prep for Aaron Glenn and the Lions defense was fairly easy this week.

Contrast that with Tampa Bay. Last week the Bucs played Washington, a team led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels operating Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Daniels was a bigger threat with his legs, taking off 16 times out of the pocket and almost topping 100 yards on the ground. He only threw for 184. Washington’s leading receiver amongst wide receivers was rookie Luke McCaffrey, who caught three passes for 18 yards.

Now they’ve got to play Goff, St. Brown, LaPorta, Week 1 star Jameson Williams and an offensive line that shines in pass protection. That’s not even bringing the lethal power ground game of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs into the equation. Tampa Bay is a very well-coached defense between head coach Todd Bowles and co-DCs in Kacy Rogers and Larry Foote, but having to uproot everything they did in Week 1 to prep for Week 2, and doing it without several key pieces, yeah–that’s a very difficult assignment.

What worries me about the Bucs

Let’s go back to the Bucs offense. Baker Mayfield leads the NFL in touchdown passes, and he looked very sharp last Sunday. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are as good of a 1-2 wideout tandem as the Lions will see all year, and that includes Kupp and Nacua. It’s great that Lions CB Carlton Davis has years of experience practicing against those guys, but there’s only so much that can help.

The Lions pass rush has to impact Mayfield. He’s more mobile than Matthew Stafford last week, but he’s also prone to lapses of judgment when he’s pressured. Losing Marcus Davenport is a rough break for the Lions, and someone else must step up to help Aidan Hutchinson, who draws perhaps his toughest assignment of the year in Tristan Wirfs. Mayfield, with those receivers, with a more promising run game that the Bucs showed in Week 1, that’s an offense that can win this game.

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The middle-of-the-field defense in Tampa Bay is designed to stuff the run. Nose Vita Vea is one of the best at it, and LB Lavonte David is still great. Even without Winfield, David and his fellow LBs are swift and savvy in the middle of the field and can complicate the intermediate passing game like the Rams did so effectively against the Lions in Week 1.

Final thought and score prediction

During the week, I predicted the Lions to win 31-25. I still like that basic margin of victory, but I do see how the score could wind up being a little lower–even with the defensive injuries on both teams.

Lions 27, Buccaneers 21

Lions vs. Rams: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Rams: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for NFL Week 1

The Sunday morning coffee is a little more vibrant this morning. There’s a welcome chill in the air as summer fades.

It’s Detroit Lions season!

This year promises to be a special one for Lions fans. Dan Campbell’s team is coming off the most successful season of the Super Bowl era, coming within a whisker of the team’s first NFC Championship and Super Bowl appearance.

As the team readies tonight’s opener against the Los Angeles Rams, it’s a more complete roster than the one that beat these Rams for the first-ever playoff win in Ford Field back in January. It’s a team that can win any game against any opponent, anywhere–postseason included. That quest starts tonight in Ford Field in front of what will certainly be a raucous crowd of partisans chanting “Ja-Red Goff” and ready to explode when the Lions take the field.

The first game is always a tough one to break down ahead of time. Teams have changed. These two teams, the Lions and Rams, have changed quite a bit on defense. We’ve also not seen one projected starter from either unit play a single snap in the preseason, adding to the mystery.

Why I think the Lions will win

On paper anyway, this is a game the Lions should win. The Rams have a plethora of new and unproven pieces all over their defense. They just lost their projected top cornerback, Darious Williams, to I.R. They traded away starting linebacker Ernest Jones, a move that was widely unpopular amongst Rams fans and, reportedly, inside the locker room.

Specifically, the lack of coordinated experience and cohesion in the back seven is a very bad matchup for the Rams against Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery; whew, the Lions have some great offensive weaponry. The Rams couldn’t match that when they had Aaron Donald and a more seasoned secondary. Now they’ve got neither.

Detroit’s own defense should be much improved. The overhauled secondary is better equipped to handle the Rams explosive passing attack. The increased physicality that Carlton Davis brings, the increased athleticism Terrion Arnold brings, the increased disruptiveness Amik Robertson offers in the slot, the increased range and deep coverage instincts Brian Branch offers playing full-time safety, it’s all better than it was a year ago.

The Rams remain a very dynamic offense, but they haven’t seen what this Lions unit can do–quite literally; Detroit sitting the starters and playing a relatively vanilla defensive scheme in the preseason means coordinator Aaron Glenn’s unit can present new wrinkles and challenges the Rams don’t even expect to see.

I think the addition of Marcus Davenport as the starting EDGE opposite Aidan Hutchinson deserves more attention. Davenport is straight out of central casting for what Glenn, Campbell and the Lions want playing across from No. 97. Most importantly, he’s healthy. The Rams will be playing without regular starting LT Alaric Jackson, too. Davenport can have a big impact on his new team right away.

What worries me about the Rams

Any team with a veteran quarterback of Matthew Stafford’s accomplishment, with one of the best receiving corps in the league, should never be overlooked. They’re thin up front, but they’re good. These Rams are one of the few offenses that can reasonably expect to match Detroit blow-for-blow.

They lost Aaron Donald on defense, and he cannot be replaced. However, the Rams smartly opted for a different strategy. L.A. has quite a few impressive young talents all along the defensive front. Kobie Turner probably should have been the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year, and I don’t think he was just a product of playing next to Donald. Jared Verse and especially Braden Fiske were very popular Lions draft projections last spring, and for good reason. Don’t sleep on them against a Lions offensive line with a new guard tandem, one of which–right guard Kevin Zeitler–spent more time injured than playing this summer. Graham Glasgow wasn’t exactly looking comfortable in moving to left guard either.

I’m not too concerned about the concept of last year’s left guard, Jonah Jackson, selling out his old team. Jackson has enough to worry about in playing center against Alim McNeill, whom he couldn’t handle in practices when playing his more natural spot at guard. Ben Johnson’s creativity won’t be stifled. I do, however, worry a bit about Johnson trying to show how smart he is rather than trying to win the game, an issue that hurt the Lions at times last year.

It’s hard to know what to expect from the Lions (or Rams) special teams. I’m simultaneously excited to see what Jake Bates can do as a kicker and also terrified at his complete lack of experience and rather uninspiring summer. The Rams kicker, rookie Joshua Karty, is also an unknown in the NFL, but I watched Karty nail game-winners in college in high-pressure situations. The last time Bates had a critical attempt in a meaningful game, he missed. Twice.

Final score prediction

I expect the Rams potent offense will be able to score some points on a talented, new-look Lions defense that hasn’t played together in meaningful action just yet. I expect the Lions offense will be able to score more than that against an inexperienced, lesser-talented Los Angeles defense.

Lions 33, Rams 24

Lions vs. 49ers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. 49ers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the NFC Championship game

We’ve made it to the NFC Championship game! For just the second time in the Super Bowl era, the Detroit Lions are playing with a Super Bowl appearance on the line.

Sunday night’s game against the top-seeded 49ers in San Francisco figures to be a great one. As I anxiously mull about on Saturday night before an early-morning trip to the Senior Bowl in Mobile, here’s what I’m thinking about the matchup between the Lions and 49ers and how the game might play out.

Why I think the Lions will win

Jared Goff is playing some seriously inspired football. His confidence and mastery of the Lions offense is exemplary, and Goff’s play has risen when the stakes have gotten higher. He’s got big-game experience from his Rams days, and he won’t be fazed by playing a team he’s seen many times over the years.
The 49ers defensive front is designed to get pressure on the QB, not stop the run. Not that Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, et al, aren’t capable against the run, but it’s not their forte. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have both been among the NFL leaders in yardage on first-down carries and red zone success rate. Moreover, the Niners aren’t used to a team sticking to the run even when San Francisco holds a lead. Detroit won’t abandon it and that can be very effective.
The Lions played a stylistically similar type of opponent last week, notably on defense. Tampa Bay and San Francisco do a lot of the same things defensively from the same base formations. The Lions won’t have to adjust the game plan of attack to accommodate a divergent style of defense. Meanwhile, the 49ers defense faced the Packers, who do a lot more deep throwing and quarterback movement than Detroit does. They’ll need to do more to adapt to the more diverse weaponry, power/gap run scheme and superior offensive line the Lions are bringing to the table.
Aidan Hutchinson is riding a heater, and he will primarily match up against 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz. That’s the weakest right tackle in pass protection he’s faced in weeks. With Brock Purdy vulnerable to making mistakes under pressure, if Hutchinson stays hot, the Lions pass defense could get chances to make plays. They’ve been better at making those than the Packers defense that couldn’t corral Purdy’s mistakes last week.
Dan Campbell told his team in the locker room after last week’s win (paraphrasing here) that they’re too young to know they’re not supposed to keep winning. There’s no pressure on them. For the 49ers, there is considerable pressure to not lose the NFC Championship game for the third year in a row. Campbell knows how to coach that plucky underdog type of team, whereas I don’t trust Kyle Shanahan to wear the front-runner hat all that comfortably.

What worries me about the 49ers

They’re the No. 1 seed because they’re a very well-rounded team. Top five scoring offense. Top five scoring defense. They don’t need one unit to thrive to win. Detroit doesn’t need that either, but the 49ers have more margin for error built in.
Brock Purdy throws the most accurate deep ball (over 20 air yards) in the league, completing 70 percent of his deep downfield passes per SIS. He pulls that off in part because he’s got several targets who can get open deep, from Brandon Aiyuk to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle to Jauan Jennings. The Lions pass defense is infamously terrible at covering the deeper throws against inferior quarterbacks to Purdy with fewer quality options.
The injury situation on the Lions offensive line could be a lot worse, but it’s still suboptimal to face the 49ers rush without starting left guard Jonah Jackson and with Frank Ragnow nursing injuries to more body parts than a trainer learns exist on the first day of med school. As good as Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and the run game are all playing, it all functions because the offensive line is great. Kayode Awosika was rough in pass protection in relief of Jackson last week, and there is zero depth behind anyone else. There could be some negative blocking impact from losing TE Brock Wright, too.
The fact I made it this far in talking about how good the 49ers are and didn’t even mention Christian McCaffrey, the NFL’s best all-around running back, is telling. Detroit’s decline in tackling of late must end, or else McCaffrey will prove why he deserves more MVP consideration.

Final score prediction

I think the 7-point line favoring the 49ers is way too high. I think the Lions would win about 46 of 100 matchups between these two current teams in San Francisco. Here’s hoping it’s one of the 46! But I can’t in good faith pick against the NFC’s top team at home with how good they are on both sides of the ball. 49ers 32, Lions 28.

Lions vs. Rams: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Rams: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the wild card playoff game in Ford Field

It’s been a long time since the morning coffee went down on a day with a Detroit Lions playoff game. Too long.

The question for this snowy Sunday is, will there be another Lions playoff game next weekend?

It’s not going to be easy, but these Lions have a strong chance to keep the postseason run rolling.

Why I think the Lions will win

The Jared Goff revenge factor is real. His divorce from Rams coach Sean McVay and Los Angeles is well-documented, but one facet that doesn’t get enough oxygen: how badly Goff’s teammates want to help the Lions QB prove himself and get his vengeance. Think “Jim Schwartz being carried off in victory in his first trip back to Ford Field” type of desire by the Lions to deliver their leader some validation.
The Rams don’t defend the middle of the field in the passing game all that well. Guess where the Lions passing game thrives. With top Rams safety Jordan Fuller banged up and questionable, it creates an even bigger advantage for All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta, who I do think plays in this one.
Special teams are a massive advantage for Detroit, including kicker Michael Badgley. Yes, folks, the Rams special teams are indeed that kind of bad. I even pegged the Lions defense and special teams to get the first score of the game as this week’s best bet. Dave Fipp’s creativity with fakes factors in here, too.
The Lions run defense against opposing RBs is fantastic. Even in Week 18, where the Detroit defense’s tackling was awful, they still did a decent job in limiting the ground game. Rams RB Kyren Williams is a good one, a worthy Pro Bowler. The Lions LBs and safeties have been very good all season in run defense, too. This is one area where the Lions’ EDGEs have a nice advantage against the Rams’ OTs and TEs, where only RT Rob Havenstein is even league-average at run blocking. Hutchinson has a big advantage in the pass rush against Havenstein, who doesn’t move well laterally, too.
For all the hullabaloo about Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit for a playoff game, Stafford’s own history in playoff games is a mixed bag. His career INT rate and sack rate are higher in the playoffs than the regular season. That’s true for most QBs; playoff games mean facing better opponents. But we’ve all seen Stafford have some bonehead plays and inexplicable misses in big games. There’s more than a little pressure on him to perform big in his return to Detroit, too.
The Rams won just one game against another team in the playoffs until last week, when they beat a 49ers team resting key offensive players. The first win over a playoff team came in Week 13 against a Cleveland Browns team starting its 4th-string QB, their No. 4 and No. 5 OTs, and no Myles Garrett. The Rams are good, but they’re far from battle-tested in 2023.

What worries me about the Rams

The DT duo of Aaron Donald and Kobie Turner is the best in the league in 2023. Donald didn’t have his best year but is still the preeminent interior pass rusher in the NFL. Turner quietly but emphatically outplayed the more celebrated Jalen Carter amongst rookie DTs, especially after the first month of the season. Even with the Lions strong OL, they’re a problem.
The Rams have a dangerous duo at WR in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Lions would struggle to cover either one of those on their own, but together they create a huge advantage for the Rams offense. If the Lions safeties aren’t sharp in coverage rotations and assignments, it’s not going to be pretty. The Detroit outside CBs simply cannot handle the combination on their own, and the Rams do a good job with formations and motion to set up favorable matchups, too.
This is more about the Lions, but I have some concern that OC Ben Johnson will do what he did in Dallas — trying to show how smart and creative he is instead of actually attacking the defense. Like Dallas, the Rams defense is predicated on speed, penetration and flow. They’re vulnerable to offenses that can punch them in the mouth. Johnson only threw a few jabs in Dallas and it wasn’t nearly enough. Has he learned his lesson?

Final score prediction

The Lions have more paths to victory than the visiting Rams, and I think they find just enough trails to win. Lions 30, Rams 27.