Tag: final score predictions

Lions vs Commanders: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs Commanders: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the NFC Divisional Round game in Detroit

After a well-deserved bye week to the second round of the postseason, the Detroit Lions are back in action on Saturday night. The top-seeded Lions host the Washington Commanders in the NFC Divisional Round matchup at Ford Field.

Ah yes, prime-time games make the morning coffee a requisite shot in the arm. Not that the excitement of the Lions being favored by more than a touchdown to earn a second straight trip to the NFC Championship game isn’t invigorating in its own right. It’s the largest point spread the Lions have ever been favored by in a postseason game in the Super Bowl era, and for good reason.

NFL Playoff picks: Unlock exclusive data-driven predictions

Here’s what I’m thinking about tonight’s game as I try to thaw out my frozen toes and prep for a long day of waiting for Lions football.

Why I think the Lions will win

Detroit was the best team in the league in the regular season, period. No team scored more points. No team came close to the Lions in total point differential (+222). Washington finished +94 and got over half that in blowout wins over Carolina (40-7) and Arizona (42-14) in the first eight weeks. Since that time, the Commanders are only +27 and that’s with a 23-point win over Tennessee, the league’s worst team. Since September, their only win over a team that finished with a winning record was a 36-33 win over the Eagles in a game where Philly’s starting QB, Jalen Hurts, didn’t play. That win, by the way, went a long way in giving the Lions some breathing room to be the top seed, so thanks for that, Washington…

Detroit’s creative, multifaceted and diversely highly skilled offense is a major mismatch for the Commanders. Getting David Montgomery back, even if it’s just a limited capacity, only compounds the distinct advantage for Detroit. As long as Jared Goff is his typical sharp self and the run blocking is effective, the Lions should be able to move the ball effectively and also hit explosive plays (10+ yard runs, 20+ yard passes).

Washington has no answer for Jameson Williams deep, and if they try to stop that, St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and even Tim Patrick and Brock Wright can devour them in the layer between the LBs and DBs. The Commanders have a very good LB group (more on them later), but they’re a lot better at going forward than playing out in space. I’m very confident Ben Johnson will understand how to pick that apart, even if it does create some lost plays along the way.

Defensively, the welcomed return of Alex Anzalone made a huge difference in erasing the sain of some ugly performances down the stretch in his absence. He and Jack Campbell together are about as good as a team can hope for in corralling a mobile quarterback who can throw. Having quick, smart, playmaking safeties in Brian Branch and All-Pro Kerby Joseph behind them, and in conjunction with them as well, means the Lions control the middle of the field. It fosters a lot of confidence that the Detroit defense will win the war, even if Daniels and friends do capture a few battles.

Typically, I worry about teams coming off a bye week into the postseason. And while these are unchartered waters for the Lions franchise, they couldn’t ask for a better captain at the helm than Dan Campbell. His approach won’t allow for complacency or losing an edge. He and his assistants have had extra time to self-scout and tweak a little with a healthier roster, and ample time to prepare for a Washington team. These Commanders are playing a radically different style of team on both sides of the ball than they played in Tampa a week ago. The lack of carryover game plans could really help Detroit in this one, too.

What concerns me about the Commanders

First things first. Washington beat a good Buccaneers team in Tampa last weekend. That needs to be respected; the Bucs, after all, hung one of the two losses on the Lions this year. The Commanders have proven they are capable of winning on the road and handling the pressure.

It was Washington’s first postseason win since 2005, but it wasn’t the first playoff rodeo for coach Dan Quinn. He once helmed a Falcons team to within a half of winning the Super Bowl, and he’s got a veteran staff around him. The Commanders might be somewhat precocious, but they’re going to be well-prepared and probably won’t be in awe of the moment.

[lawrence-related id=118522]

Jayden Daniels certainly looked ready. The likely Offensive Rookie of the Year (Raiders TE Brock Bowers could/should win) can both run and pass, a combination the Lions defense has struggled with at times. He’s much more in the vein of Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson than Josh Allen or (ghost of the past) Justin Fields. Daniels runs to run, with designed rushes. The Commanders do a good job of the RPO and giving him an easy option while also stressing the playside linebacker or safety (often both).

Daniels tends to make the correct decision, and quickly. He’s got a legit No. 1 receiver in Terry McLaurin, a guy who can make contested catches and present himself as a big target. Austin Ekeler is still a dangerous receiver out of the backfield and a capable outside/cutback runner.

Strategically, Washington is adept at long, time-consuming drives. They ranked 3rd in plays per drive and 6th in time of possession. Given that the Lions offense is a major issue for the Commanders defense, the ability to grind out a 10-play, 66-yard drive that ends in a touchdown is a huge asset. They’re good in the red zone, too–7th in TD percentage, with Daniels running for six on his own.

Their overhauled defense has speed at all three levels. The linebacking duo of Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu might be the best the Lions see all year. Luvu gets little fanfare, but he’s arguably the best A-gap blitzer in the league, and he tackles well in space. He and Wagner are both good pass rushers and finishers, and Washington does a good job of setting them up with a strong line that can give them creases. Rookie RG Christian Mahogany will need to be ready and able in his first playoff appearance.

Rookie slot CB Mike Sainristil quickly proved one of the best at his position. His quickness and toughness could be an effective foil against Lions All-Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown — if such a thing exists.

Other than kicker, Washington also comes close to the Lions across special teams. Yes, even at punter; Tress Way is a top-10 all-time punter in both gross and net yards. Jack Fox is the best, but Way isn’t far behind, and the Washington coverage unit is top-shelf. Read as: free yards are unlikely in this one for Detroit.

Final score prediction

The bottom line is simple: if the Lions play at a B-level or better, Washington would need a near-miraculous game to beat them in Detroit. If the Lions aren’t sharp from the get-go, Washington has the ability to pull it off. They don’t know they’re not supposed to win, and that makes them dangerous; Campbell’s Lions have worn that hat very nicely and I think the Commanders will too. But not today…

Lions 33, Commanders 24

Lions vs Vikings: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs Vikings: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 18 finale from Ford Field

It’s here! The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings meet tonight in one of the most significant regular-season games in franchise history for Detroit.

So much is on the line. The NFC North title. The No. 1 seed in the NFC for the postseason and the associated home-field advantage. A playoff bye and a more favorable (in theory) divisional-round matchup for the winner’s first postseason game.

As I drink the first cup of Sunday morning coffee, I’ve got quite a few thoughts about this Week 18 finale swirling in my head. Foremost is that it’s going to be a long, angst-ridden wait to tonight’s prime-time kickoff in Ford Field. “Waiting all day for Sunday night,” indeed…

Why I think the Lions will win

One of the biggest reasons is the venue. Ford Field figures to be insanely loud in favor of the Lions, with palpable energy from a fan base that understands how they can help their beloved team prevail. Dan Campbell’s team does a good job of not getting uptight with the pressure and at feeding off the fan energy, too.

That’s the baseline for the positivity. But there are many, many more reasons to really like the Lions to win this game. Most of them are on the offensive side of the ball for Detroit.

It starts with Jared Goff. The master of play-action and working the intermediate range in the middle of the field goes up against a defense that concedes both of those by schematic design. Goff has carved up Brian Flores’ defenses in all three meetings between Detroit and Minnesota (all won by the Lions):

Week 7 – 22-for-25, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 0 giveaways, QB Rating of 140.0
2023 Week 16 – 30-of-40, 257 yards, 1 TD, 0 giveaways, QB Rating 99.7
2023 Week 18 – 23-of-32, 320 yards, 2 TDs, 0 giveaways QB Rating 124.5

The Vikings rank near the top in blitzing at 38 percent. They do so quite creatively, with a varied approach that thrives on creating confusion and delay in the quarterback. But Goff has been very sharp in understanding where his hot reads are, and the Lions offensive line and tight ends/running backs have been effective at pre-snap diagnosis and staying disciplined in pass protection.

This graphic from FOX Sports sums it up nicely:

Blitzing tends to create considerable opportunities for electrifying Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown after the catch. St. Brown’s three games against Flores: 27 catches on 32 targets, 362 yards, 4 TDs.

As long as Goff can get the ball out, the Lions carry a massive advantage against Minnesota’s defense. Goff will have to be up to his usual standards, but if that’s not the case, then this probably isn’t going to be much fun, regardless.

Defensively, getting Alex Anzalone back can only help the Lions pass coverage. Anything No. 34 can offer is a bonus for a defense that has trotted out Ezekiel Turner, Kwon Alexander and Jamal Adams in Anzalone’s coverage LB role. All three quickly proved why they were still available in December. Ben Niemann tackles well and has closing speed but lacks Anzalone’s instincts and cross-field speed in coverage.

Getting a couple of takeaways in the win over San Francisco proved huge. Kerby Joseph’s first pick in the game was Detroit’s first in six weeks, and that void was cataclysmic for the Lions defense. Minnesota has a high-powered passing offense, but they are one that will take chances being aggressive. Kerby Joseph, Brian Branch and Amik Robertson (3 PDs and a forced fumble in 2 starts at outside CB) are all capable of making Sam Darnold (12 INTs on the season) pay for not being precise.

Minnesota’s offense ranks near the bottom in yards per carry on the ground (4.0, 29th), which can play into the Vikings pressing and potentially putting the ball up for grabs. Aaron Jones found a lot of success (93 yards on 14 carries) in the first meeting, however, so this is one of those toss-up battles.

The Lions also have a major advantage in the punting battle. Don’t snicker at that, either. Pro Bowler Jack Fox has a shot at setting the NFL record for best net punting average for a season. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Ryan Wright is a bottom-5 punter in both gross and net yards, ranking 27th in both.

Return man Kalif Raymond is back from injured reserve to try and still win the league’s punt return yardage crown; Raymond has 390 and the leader (Denver’s Marvin Mims) is only 18 yards ahead of him despite Kalif missing five games. One-time Lion Brandon Powell is Minnesota’s punt returner, and he’s dead last in yards per return (7.2) amongst regular returners. Read as: there’s a very real opportunity for the Lions to pick up a lot of field position in the punt game — should either Fox or Wright have to punt.

What concerns me about the Vikings

Unfortunately, there’s quite a bit here, too. Minnesota is 14-2 and while they haven’t blown many teams away, they’re a top 10 team on both offense and defense. They also know how to win close games, with nine wins (and a loss to the Lions) in 1-possession finals. Call it lucky or flukishly unsustainable if you must, but they’re really good in those situations and comfortable playing under pressure. I don’t think that changes in Detroit.

Sam Darnold is having the kind of year for Minnesota that Goff did in 2023 for Detroit, reminding everyone why he was once a No. 2 overall draft pick. Statistically, Darnold and Goff have very similar numbers in 2024. Goff is a touch more accurate (71.7 to 68.1 completion percentage) and Darnold takes more sacks (46 to 29), but they’re having comparable overall seasons.

Darnold has great weapons to work with. Justin Jefferson is as good as any receiver in the league, and he’s quickly developed great chemistry with Darnold. He’s the kind of receiver who can make Detroit really miss top outside CB Carlton Davis, who is sidelined with a broken jaw. While Robertson has stepped up nicely, he gives up a lot of size to Jefferson. Rookie CB Terrion Arnold remains prone to rookie mistakes, and that’s not something Detroit can afford.

Officiating could come into play here. Arnold has cleaned up his handsy-ness in coverage, but (with apologies to Josh Allen) there isn’t a better QB at throwing passes that draw defensive pass interference than Darnold.

The Vikings lead the league with 328 yards gained via DPI infractions. The Lions? One drawn DPI for 5 yards all season. A lot of that is about style of passing and passer. If Arnold gets grabby against Jefferson or Jordan Addison, the Vikings have proven they’ll coax those flags to their advantage. Sunday night’s officiating crew throws more flags for DPI than any other, too.

Minnesota has one of the best first-quarter offenses, ranking second in points in the opening stanza. That makes it tougher for the Lions to get out to a lead and eliminate part of the opposing playbook because the enemy offense is busy playing catch-up. Kevin O’Connell has proven to be a very adept game manager and situational play-caller, so that might not matter against Minnesota. They haven’t really abandoned the run in prior deficits, it’s worth noting. Regardless, it’s not going to be easy for the Lions (14th in 1st quarter scoring) to establish an early lead.

The Vikings do have capable pass rushers without blitzing, when they choose to just roll four at the QB. Jonathan Greenard bagged a sack in the last outing and gave left tackle Taylor Decker problems all afternoon. In fact, it was the worst pass protection game in Decker’s entire career, according to PFF grades.

Minnesota uses OLB Andrew Van Ginkel as a weapon very effectively, rushing him from all over the formation. Van Ginkel doesn’t get enough national attention for how smoothly he avoids blocks and how quickly he can strike. Lions fans might remember that Van Ginkel got to Goff for two sacks and five QB hits in the first meeting. With blitz-happy Ivan Pace at ILB mixed in, the Vikings do have some wrecking balls that can give even the Lions great OL some issues. On top of that, the Lions line has not been at its peak recently; even All-Pro RT Penei Sewell has not played his best football in the last month or so in pass protection. It’s a concern.

Final score prediction

Should be a great game. The Vikings are a very good team. The Lions are just a little bit better and they believe it, too.

Lions 34, Vikings 30

 

 

Lions vs 49ers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs 49ers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 17 matchup on Monday Night Football

We’ve reached the penultimate Detroit Lions game of the season on the penultimate day of 2024. It’s the final Monday Night Football game of the season, a road trip to the site where last year’s postseason run ended for Detroit.

Yet, strangely, tonight’s game in San Francisco feels largely anticlimactic. Unless the game ends in a tie, the outcome doesn’t impact the Lions and their chase for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, home-field advantage throughout the postseason and a coveted bye week to get more rest and recovery time for the walking wounded. Next Sunday night’s game in Detroit against the Minnesota Vikings is for all the marbles. This one against the 49ers is more like putting a tired old nemesis out of its malaiseful misery.

Why I think the Lions will win

The Lions have the better offense in this game. Better quarterback in Jared Goff. Better running back in Jahmyr Gibbs. Better wide receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Tim Patrick. Better line at all five positions across the offensive front. Give the Niners the slight edge at tight end with George Kittle nudging past Sam LaPorta on career accomplishment, but it’s probably closer than most would realize. Put Deebo Samuel between St. Brown and Jamo in the wideout pantheon.

Now, let’s go to the defensive side of the ball. The 49ers have the best EDGE in Nick Bosa and the best off-ball LB in Fred Warner, though that’s a fairly close battle with Jack Campbell. Leonard Floyd is a light push over Detroit’s top EDGE, Za’Darius Smith.

Therein lies the list of positions where the 49ers are better than the Lions. Yes, even after all the injuries in Detroit and the relentless summer hype about San Francisco’s greatness, they will trot out five total players on Monday night who would start this game for Detroit. That list might nudge to six for nickel CB Deommodore Lenoir, but that’s only because Amik Robertson (a better slot than Lenoir) is playing outside for Detroit in place of injured Carlton Davis.

Detroit’s advantages even extend to the specialists, where Jack Fox surpasses Pat O’Donnell and young Jake Bates has proven more reliable than San Francisco’s Jake Moody, who is a 75 percent placekicker and barely a 50/50 proposition beyond 40 yards this year (he’s 9-for-16 beyond 40).

All that superior talent across the board, with Dan Campbell repeatedly stressing how important this game is to his team. Yeah, no. Don’t overthink this one. You might not agree with playing starters deep into the game, but Dan Campbell doesn’t care. That’s why he’s great–he respects his opponent and knows he must keep his team sharp against all comers.

What concerns me about the 49ers

Maybe it’s the extra saltiness of the Monday morning bagel, but the only way I see the 49ers prevailing tonight is if the Lions let them. They do have some remaining assets that could at least keep the game competitive, however.

Brock Purdy remains one of the best deep-ball throwers in the league. As an overall quarterback, Purdy is still somewhere in the NFL’s very shrinking middle class, but the man throws a sharp, accurate deep ball with uncanny regularity. To his credit, he will throw it to any of his receivers, too; even without Brandon Aiyuk, the man who tortured the Lions in the NFC Championship game, the over-the-top throws still come.

Kittle and Deebo Samuel remain noble warriors. Unlike former teammate De’Vondre Campbell, who walked off mid-game two weeks ago, the healthy remaining 49ers stars are still playing like their playoff lives depend on every snap. The heart of a champion dies hard, and those two keep beating whatever life can be breathed into the 49ers’ injury-devastated offense.

I suppose fear of the unknown probably merits a mention. Thanks to injuries, the Niners themselves might not even know who the starting offensive tackles or running backs are in this game. Could Patrick Taylor, Austen Pleasants or Eric Saubert explode for a career-best outing? It’s unlikely but not completely implausible.

(You get bonus points for knowing what position any of those guys play without looking it up!)

Final score prediction

What could have been an epic playoff preview, a high-stakes rematch of last year’s NFC title game, fizzled away with the Niners’ 6-9 start. Both teams suffered far too many critical injuries. One team adapted, the other wilted. That will be reflected in the scoreboard tonight.

Lions 34, 49ers 15

Lions vs Bears: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs Bears: Last-minute matchup thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 16 game in Chicago

It’s been a few weeks since the Detroit Lions played at 1 p.m. ET on a Sunday. The Lions have played today’s Week 16 opponent, the Chicago Bears, more recently than they last played at the traditional early Sunday kickoff.

As such, this Sunday’s morning pot of coffee is rushed a bit. It’s time to get buzzing about the Lions once again. The 12-2 Lions head west on I-94 to Chicago to play the 4-10 Bears, losers of eight games in a row. It’s time for the first-place Lions to shine through the wintry gloaming and bring smiles back to Detroit after a tough loss to the Bills that added more names to the already-naughty list of injured players.

Here’s what’s on mind in the hours before the game at Soldier Field…

Why I think the Lions will win

Aside from the fact that the Bears have exactly one offensive player (WR D.J. Moore) who would start this week for Detroit, or the additional fact that Bears defensive front has fallen off a cliff since the start of their nine-game losing streak, there are just so many reasons to believe the Lions cruise in Chicago.

The Xs and Os all favor the Lions, every single one of them. That’s still true even with the recent injury ravages to Detroit’s defense. But it’s the Lions offense versus the Bears defense that leaves me bullish on the trip to Chicago.

In the past, which includes the tightly played Thanksgiving matchup, the Bears defense presented quite a few problems for Detroit’s offense. Between their scheme crowding the middle of the field and Chicago’s ability to reliably generate pressure without blitzing, there might not be a better defensive design to slow down QB Jared Goff and OC Ben Johnson’s offense.

That Chicago defense might still have much of the same personnel, but they appear to have been declawed. The Bears have fallen from grace. Over the last six games–which includes the Week 13 meeting–Chicago has managed just nine sacks and a pressure percentage that ranks 28th over that time, per SIS. The stingy early-season defense has allowed 28 per game in the last month and is trending in the wrong way. The run defense, never a strength, continues to surrender almost five yards per carry on first down and 4.7 (27th in the league) overall.

For all of the Lions injuries, the offense is still in pretty good shape. Losing David Montgomery certainly hurts, but the rest of the skill position players are coming off a game where they hung 42 points on a very good Bills team.

The vaunted Lions offensive line hasn’t played to its lofty standards recently. There are two ways to look at that. Either Penei Sewell, Frank Ragnow and friends just aren’t that good anymore, or they’re due for a rebound game where they assert their dominance. I’ll take the latter in this one, with some legitimate disappointed surprise if it doesn’t play out that way.

Detroit’s defense continues the search for healthy bodies, and the latest losses of Alim McNeill and (especially) Carlton Davis are quite problematic. The Lions plan a ton of man coverage in part because Davis, as the team’s top cover man, is very good at it. Caleb Williams, the Bears’ rookie QB, is at his worst when facing man coverage. Their receivers don’t separate easily from man, and Williams’ hesitancy to let it fly exacerbates their issues. Even without Davis and McNeill joining the injured list, I don’t see Williams suddenly becoming much better at any of those things–especially not with a banged-up OL and an interim coach who doesn’t appear to have resonated with the team as they hoped.

What concerns me about the Bears

Last week, ahead of the Lions-Bills game in this spot, I gave a two-word answer here. Josh Allen.

This week, I’ll give another two-word answer for what worries me about the Bears.

Not much.

Okay, that’s a little too dismissive of another professional team, one that the Lions edged by just three points last month. They still have a very good tight end in Cole Kmet, who works very well in tandem with D.J. Moore–a guy who has proven he’s one of the best all-around receivers in the league even if the stats don’t necessarily say so.

Keenan Allen isn’t close to what he used to be in his Chargers prime, but he remains a viable threat in the red zone and on the sidelines. Rookie Rome Odunze is, much like his fellow top-10 rookie at QB, sporadically great but often not quite there yet. Old friend D’Andre Swift is a legit receiving threat out of the backfield, something that Josh Allen and the Bills destroyed Detroit’s defense with a week ago.

Williams, of course, is the key to it all. While stylistically quite different, his rookie campaign has a few similarities to one Matthew Stafford in Detroit back in 2009. Remember those days, Lions fans? We loved the flashes of brilliance and the glimpses of the emerging standout, but there were also those weird empty drives that strung together a little too easily in just about every game. The sharpness of the eyes and the relative inexperience against the speedier schemes and defenses of the NFL gave young Stafford a lot of trouble. They do against Williams, too. But if, by chance, Williams can keep his composure for four quarters, the Bears offense can definitely do some damage against Detroit the way Stafford could take over a game or two as a rookie.

Chicago’s defense still fares well at creating takeaways. They do still gum up the 5-to-10-yard passes over the middle as well as anyone, and that’s still where Jared Goff is at his best in targeting. The Bears are still capable on third down defense (10th) and red zone TD percentage (3rd). They should have some semblance of confidence after playing very effective defense in the second half on Thanksgiving, too. If ever there was a team with a death-gasp stunner of a game, this is the time and place for it for Chicago.

Final score prediction

I’m going to hedge this one, because there are two distinct ways I see the Lions and Bears playing out.

A) The Lions come out flat in the cold, struggle with a defensive miscommunication or two, and fall behind at the half. Then Dan Campbell roars life into his team at halftime and Detroit prevails 27-22.

B) Detroit replicates the first half success from the Thanksgiving meeting, but this time the Bears are more resigned to their losing fate and the Lions cruise 33-12.

Either way, the Lions should improve to 13-2.

Lions vs Packers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for Week 14

Lions vs Packers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 14 matchup on Thursday night

For the second week in a row, we are treated to Detroit Lions football on a Thursday instead of the traditional Sunday kickoff. As was the case in Week 13’s Thanksgiving matinee against the Chicago Bears, this Thursday pits the LIons in a home game against a division rival.

This time, it’s Thursday night football against the Green Bay Packers. Yeah, those guys from the other side of Lake Michigan. The place where the Lions roared to a 24-14 victory five weeks ago that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicates.

As I sip the morning coffee amidst a winter storm warning that has closed schools and businesses everywhere around me, the chill of the specter of tonight’s game is unavoidable. This is a big one for both teams.

Why I think the Lions will win

The running game with Sonic and Knuckles, better known as Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, continues to play exceedingly well. The Lions offense can control the game script because they can run so effectively in any situation. 1st-and-10, Montgomery gets eight. 3rd-and-3, Gibbs blasts off for 17.

The ability to consistently generate big plays from the run game is huge for Detroit. It’s also huge in how it impacts the opposing defense. The Packers linebackers and safeties have to remain alert for the potential that Gibbs will be racing to the outside on a simple zone run, or Montgomery will run through the initial tackle and be charging at them at full speed, often with Penei Sewell and Kevin Zeitler still leading the way well past the line of scrimmage. That’s in addition to their potential coverage responsibilities against Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and even Tim Patrick, who has become more involved in the passing offense since the first meeting.

Detroit might have to focus on outscoring the Packers in this one, thanks to all the defensive attrition. Jared Goff and his merry band of weaponry can do it, and do it unapologetically. That’s a very real edge for the Lions; they’ve done it before and can do it again. The Lions know it, but the Packers do too, and that puts considerable pressure on a young, mistake-prone Green Bay team to try and match. That’s how Detroit so comfortably handled the Week 9 game in Green Bay.

Special teams certainly deserves a nod for the Lions. Punter Jack Fox is having an incredible season. In a golden age of NFL punting, Fox remains the gold standard for consistency in flipping the field. The coverage units have remained strong despite major injury-induced personnel changes, too. Coordinator Dave Fipp has his units playing as well as anyone.

Defensively, there is a “revenge game” angle for a couple of key Lions–perhaps the two most key Detroit defenders. Za’Darius Smith has taken over as the team’s top pass rusher since joining the team. Before he joined the Lions, Smith openly talked about how badly he wanted to come to Detroit specifically so he could play against the Packers, his old team. Smith’s tenure with Green Bay did not end well, and he’s ready to take out some frustration.

Safety Brian Branch had to watch most of the Week 9 win from the locker room after being ejected for a questionable hit. Branch’s ability to make big plays and be a versatile wild card at the back end is integral to everything coordinator Aaron Glenn wants to do defensively, and now Branch has an edge of redemption to him. That should play very well for Detroit.

What worries me about the Packers

Green Bay is playing some very strong football over the past three weeks, winning all three games since losing to Detroit. Their Week 10 bye revived and refocused their offense, notably in ball security. Jordan Love has been playing smarter, cleaner ball; Green Bay has just one giveaway in those three games.

Some of that stems from Josh Jacobs running the ball extremely well. He’s the type of RB that has given the Lions defense some trouble this year, and now the Detroit defense must try to slow him down without premium run defender DJ Reader and three of its top four LBs behind him. Reader’s loss is a big one, because the nose tackle is exceptional at keeping blockers away from Jack Campbell and all the replacements surrounding him at linebacker. Now it’s up to Brodric Martin, who has played exactly two snaps all year. All of the line depth and all of the linebacking depth is completely new from the first meeting.

I give Glenn a ton of credit for keeping the Lions defense formidable throughout all the injuries. But there’s only so much that all those bandages can stretch before they snap, and I worry that happens against a multitalented Packers offense that has been playing largely mistake-free ball lately. Love has found a bit of a rhythm as the Packers lean on Jacobs and a better-than-advertised run blocking OL, and he’s got dangerous weapons in Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed. Those guys might not be stars, and all have some inconsistency to their games, but they’re playing very well collectively of late.

The Lions patchwork defense has benefitted from playing erratic QBs in Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams, each of which plays behind an offensive line that isn’t nearly as good as what it will see against Green Bay. Based on the last few weeks, it’s unfair to lump Love in with those quarterbacks, too.

That’s got the potential for Green Bay to play with a lead, and that’s a bit of an issue for the Lions offense. Not having left tackle Taylor Decker could be very bad for Detroit. Decker wasn’t terribly missed against Chicago and their straightforward pass rush attack. Green Bay does a lot more blitzing and wide-angle rushing than the Bears, and that’s not a strong suit for Decker’s replacement, Dan Skipper. As much as we all love Skipper, he’s also not nearly the run-blocking presence that Decker is. With left guard Graham Glasgow also not playing well of late, I worry that a more one-handed offense will struggle against a swift, aggressive Packers defense.

Final score prediction

The Lions are rightly favored to win, but I can’t escape the feeling that the myriad injuries finally catch up to the team tonight. Not having Decker and Reader is huge; I would pick the Lions if either were playing in Week 14. But they’re not, and Green Bay is playing focused enough that I don’t think the Packers give back that advantage.

Packers 29, Lions 21

Lions vs Bears: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs Bears: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day game in Ford Field

Happy Thanksgiving! It’s always a special holiday for Detroit Lions fans, but this year is even more grand.

As I drink the morning coffee on this Lions gameday, the Lions are owners of the best record in the NFL. Okay, technically the Kansas City Chiefs are also 10-1, but the Lions are the current holders of the No. 32 spot on the NFL’s waiver wire.

Dan Campbell’s Lions are the best team in the league entering Week 13. They’ve won nine games in a row thanks to a balance between the No. 1 scoring offense and No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL.

It’s been a long time since the Lions won on Thanksgiving. The Chicago Bears, today’s opponent, are responsible for ruining the day for the Lions in three of those seven consecutive losses. Will the Lions exact some revenge on the day where Detroit is the rare focal point of the NFL?

Why I think the Lions will win

Defense.

Okay, I probably need to say more than one word. But everything good about this matchup rests upon Aaron Glenn’s banged-up but still incredibly effective defensive unit.

The Lions defense is playing some great team football lately. The cohesion and communication between the line, the backers and the secondary has been outstanding, no matter the personnel on hand. Glenn has found the sweet spot for his impact players, namely DT Alim McNeill and safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph.

All three are poised for big games in this one, most notably McNeill. He’s been on a tear as a pass rusher on the interior, and in this matchup, McNeill draws a subpar G-C-G package from the Bears. They’re not bad players individually, but the combination of Teven Jenkins, Matt Pryor and Coleman Shelton plays with little chemistry or coordination.

The biggest matchup advantage for the Lions in this game comes from their big guys on defense, and that also includes DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, Levi Onwuzurike and Za’Darius Smith. Power wins against the Bears. Talented power dominates.

The object of Detroit’s aggression is rookie QB Caleb Williams. The latest in a long line of Bears quarterback solutions has, at times, shown why he was the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft in Detroit. Williams has also proven his vociferous critics correct (so far, anyway) with erratic decisions, an inability to consistently win in the structure of the offense, and a maddening propensity to hold the ball way too long.

Getting Terrion Arnold back will help the Lions man coverage on the outside, though not having Carlton Davis will hurt. The opportunism of Joseph and Branch at safety, playing behind a pass rush that should be effective and a run defense that should stymie old friend D’Andre Swift, makes it tough to see the Bears scoring much without some help from more injuries, officiating or just a collective off day from too many Lions. Branch got his out of his system last week, and I expect a big rebound game here.

Moreover, Chicago is just not a well-coached offense. The Windy City airwaves and blogosphere are crowded with calls for coach Matt Eberflus’ head. They’ve already fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, but the heat is still on thanks to a scheme that doesn’t necessarily play to the strength of their top talents. Clock management, playcalling decisions, frigid starts to games–they’re all still major issues for the Bears.

On the opposite side of the ball, the Lions should be able to run early and often against the Bears defensive front. Chicago has some very legit talent upfront, but their spacing and attack-at-all-times scheme leaves them vulnerable against disciplined offenses that don’t get discouraged from running the ball on 2nd-and-10 or 3rd-and-7. The Lions run offense with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, running behind a well-heeled line, has no such problems.

Then there’s the coaching. Eberflus is on the hot seat. Campbell should be getting more mention than he is for NFL Coach of the Year, and all three coordinators–Glenn, OC Ben Johnson and special teams coach Dave Fipp–are at or near the top of their respective positions. The Lions coaching staff is a well-oiled machine. The Bears staff is leaking oil above some smoldering kindling.

Don’t think for a second the Lions coaches don’t know how long it’s been since this team won on this day. Chicago might be an inferior opponent statistically and record-wise, but ending the Thanksgiving losing will mean something to them. So will beating a division opponent.

What concerns me about the Bears

Much of what concerns me about the Bears relates more to the Lions and the rampant injuries across the roster. If Detroit was at full strength, I would expect them to win by 20-plus points.

Alas, this is not even close to the full complement of talent for Detroit. Left tackle Taylor Decker is out, as is starting outside CB Carlton Davis. Losing Decker is huge because the fundamental tenet of Chicago’s defense is being able to pressure the quarterback by only rushing four. The dropoff from Decker to the next OT in line–be it Dan Skipper or practice squad elevation Jamarco Jones–is significant.

Moving Penei Sewell from the right side to the left shores up the left side, but the Bears defense typically aligns their best pass rusher, Montez Sweat, against the right tackle. Much of the Lion’s run blocking is based around Sewell’s seek-and-destroy mobility and power from the right side, too. Either way, Decker is a major loss against the Bears.

Davis’ absence on defense pushes Kindle Vildor, Khalil Dorsey and Emmanuel Moseley two spots higher up the depth chart. Remember, just last Thursday Detroit had rookie Ennis Rakestraw as CB4. Now he and Davis are out. The Lions depth CBs are tasked with controlling a very good 1-2-3 WR combination in DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen. The safeties and LBs can’t help too much because TE Cole Kmet is a very good receiver, as is Swift at RB out of the backfield. Caleb Williams’ running and improvisational ability demands their attention, too. Chicago’s offense might be erratic and poorly coached, but they do have the ability to make some plays.

Back to the Bears defense. Goff has struggled against them; 43-for-70, 393 yards, 3 TDs and 5 INTs in two games last year. Much like the Buccaneers in Detroit’s only loss this year, the Bears are really good at getting quick pressure by rushing just four, and simultaneously crowding the middle of the field. That’s where Goff attacks at his best and the Bears are really good at taking it away. They too have opportunistic defenders; eight different Bears have INTs and 10 have forced fumbles on the season. Factor in Graham Glasgow’s recent struggles at left guard and Decker’s absence to his outside flank, and the Bears D could be a real problem for Goff and the Lions. Especially if Ben Johnson gets impatient and too intricate with his play calls and designs–as happened against the Buccaneers back in Week 2…

Final score prediction

I think the Lions have enough talent to survive what figures to be a spirited challenge from a Bears team that just might have a death-gasp game in them. Lions win, 20-17, on a Jake Bates field goal on Detroit’s final drive.

 

Lions vs. Colts: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Colts: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 12 matchup in Indianapolis

One of the best things about the Detroit Lions being 9-1 and in first place is how well it makes the Sunday morning coffee taste. There’s just something a little smoother and richer about first-place coffee. I can get used to this.

Today’s is also nice because it’s the last of the Sunday morning brews before a 1 p.m. kickoff for a month. The Lions are playing at 1 ET in Indianapolis today, but then it’s Thanksgiving with the Bears coming to Ford Field, then a Thursday night game with Green Bay and then a late-afternoon Sunday kickoff against the Bills.

The Lions are favored by a touchdown on the road against the Colts, but this is a dangerous one. The recent defensive injuries that continue to decimate the Lions could be a bigger problem against the Colts than other recent foes.

Here’s what I’m thinking about today’s game a few hours ahead of kickoff.

[lawrence-related id=115624]

Why I think the Lions will win

This is a game where Detroit’s investment in the offensive line and running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should really pay off. The Lions have one of the best rushing attacks in the league, and it’s consistent. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson doesn’t lose patience in the run, either. Not that he should need to in this one…

And that’s because the Colts do lose patience on run defense. They are a team that can get some nice stops but then give up a series of big runs. Only the Texans have allowed more runs of 10-plus yards over the last four weeks than the Colts, and it was the Lions who helped push the Texans to the bottom by continuing to run the ball even when trailing. Sonic and Knuckles can do that again, if needed.

The Colts also don’t defend the pass very effectively, especially against accurate QBs. Jared Goff should be able to at least equal his 73 percent completion percentage against a Colts secondary that will gamble on the ball in lieu of tighter pre-throw coverage. With how well Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Tim Patrick get open and present as targets, the Lions should be able to move the ball quite effectively.

Converting those yards into points hasn’t been much of a problem of late. Detroit has been great in the red zone nearly all season, ranking fourth in TD percentage. The one misstep was the Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers, when the Lions went 1-of-7 in the red zone. The Colts defense is middle-of-the-pack in red zone defense. On the flip side, Detroit’s defense is third in the red zone. The Lions are great when it really counts, and the Colts can’t match that. The ability of Gibbs and Jameson Williams to score from well outside the red zone sure helps, too.

This matchup does present something of a trap game for Detroit. Head coach Dan Campbell and his staff have done a great job of not falling into those traps. One of the hallmarks of the resurgent Lions under Campbell the last two years is that they make the opponent come up to their level of play, instead of getting lulled into falling to the inferior opponent’s level. That’s a great mindset to avoid the upset, even on the road against a team like the Colts that does present some challenges.

What concerns me about the Colts

The Colts are a difficult foe with Anthony Richardson at the helm because convention goes out the window. Richardson aggressively seeks big plays and has the athletic ability to pull them off. He’s got decent weapons, too. Alec Pierce leads the league in yards per reception at over 22 per catch, while Josh Downs and Michael Pittman are both sure-handed and capable after the catch. It’s more of a concern this week because the Lions will be without Terrion Arnold, while Carlton Davis is playing with a broken thumb. It’s not a great week for the Lions to be shorthanded at cornerback.

Indy’s offense with Richardson goes for the big plays. Moreover, they don’t really get dissuaded if they aren’t hitting them early. They put a lot of pressure on the opposing defense to play a lot more of the field than is required most weeks. Even without starting tackle Bernhard Raimann, the Colts should still be able to run the ball with Jonathan Taylor and Trey Sermon, plus Richardson’s freaky size and speed in keeping the ball. This is not a great week for the Lions to be shorthanded at linebacker with Alex Anzalone and Jalen Reeves-Maybin, the team’s two fastest LBs, out with injuries.

On defense, the Colts are very good at creating takeaways. It’s a focus of coordinator Gus Bradley and they’re relentless about it. They’re also a defense without any one dominant pass rusher to focus upon. Kwity Paye and rookie Laiatu Latu are their best rushers, but they have a lot of guys who can win pass rush reps often. Grover Stewart is the best interior lineman you never hear about, but he’s not alone out there. Don’t be fooled by the lack of big pressure or sack numbers; they can impact Goff and score wins against Detroit’s very good offensive line.

Going back up to the Lions forcing the opponent to come to their level–that’s something the Colts do fairly well. Every Indianapolis game is a close one. They haven’t figured out how to win them all that well, but the Colts have only had one game decided by more than one score. They know how to consistently hang around with better teams. That makes them dangerous, especially for a Lions defense that will be missing half its Week 1 starters.

Final score prediction

I have a feeling the Colts are going to make this a tighter game than a lot of fans expect. They’re going to hit on some big plays that the Lions defense doesn’t typically give up. I also have a feeling the Lions offense will be able to hit one or two more of those big plays than the Colts can. Should be a fun game but perhaps a nerve-racking one.

Lions 33, Colts 27

Lions vs. Jaguars: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Jaguars: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 11 matchup in Ford Field

This Sunday’s morning coffee brings back reflections of the last time the Lions played the Jaguars. That meeting in December of 2022 was the first time Dan Campbell’s Lions played like a great team.

Those Lions blew out a Jaguars team that would go on to win a playoff game. Detroit has never looked back. Adding significantly more talent on both sides of the ball and growing the impressive young core has made the Lions a viable Super Bowl contender. At 8-1, the Lions welcome back a Jaguars team that is a rotting shell of the sprightly crew that was on the business end of the 40-14 beatdown two years ago.

Why I think the Lions will win

Barring another fluky five-turnover performance from Jared Goff, the Lions passing offense should be able to hit big plays against the Jaguars. Goff’s five INT anomaly in Week 10 matches the entire season volume from Jacksonville’s defense in 10 games; they’re not a team that creates takeaways or stresses the ball well in either run or pass defense. And they don’t have anyone who can effectively mark Amon-Ra St. Brown working the intermediate part of the field.

If the Jaguars shift to compensate, then they don’t have any answer for Jameson Williams over the top. Or Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield on a quick swing pass. Or Brock Wright leaking out the back side on a delayed TE release. Or David Montgomery on a sprint draw play behind Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler, with Penei Sewell having already cleared out the linebacker.

In short, the Lions offensive diversity presents overwhelming issues for a Jaguars defense that got torched for 35 points by the Bears (!!) not too long ago.

Flip the side to Jacksonville’s offense. Trevor Lawrence might not be worth his astronomical salary, but Lawrence is at least a quality starting QB who has some real ability. He’s out, replaced by panicky, immobile, slow-to-throw Mac Jones. That’s a very poor fit with a replacement left tackle in Walker Little trying to fill in for injured starter Cam Robinson. Just for good measure, top RB Tank Bigsby is also out with an injury.

Even if they all played, the Lions defense still matches up well with a slow-paced offense that tries a little too hard to generate big plays. They might hit a couple, even with Jones at the helm. But asking this Jacksonville offense to keep pace with Detroit on the scoreboard is not a conducive path to victory for the visitors.

The Lions do the little things so much better, so much more frequently than the Jaguars. Things like third down offense and defense, red zone offense and defense, ball security, first-down rushing offense and defense. The 14-point spread in the odds reflects the relative confidence in the ability of each team to play to its capacity.

[lawrence-related id=115110]

What worries me about the Jaguars

I’ll be honest on this one. Not much concerns me about the Jaguars, not if the Lions take them seriously and play even a B-minus game or higher. There just isn’t enough breadth of impact talent on the Jaguars roster to compete with the Lions — if Detroit is focused and plays hard for four quarters.

That’s not to say the Jaguars are bereft of talent or ability. Their defensive front can cause some problems. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker are an athletic pass-rush combo that can impact the quarterback. Walker (7 sacks) and Hines-Allen (5.5) can each defeat good blocking and take advantage of missteps by the offensive line. Roy Robertson-Harris is the type of nationally underappreciated interior presence who can make a name for himself, too. He’s better than most Lions fans will expect him to be.

The Jaguars linebackers might be the fastest combo in the league. It doesn’t mean they tackle all that well (notably Ventrell Miller) or cover well (notably Devin Lloyd), but they do create some issues with their overall speed and ability to be where the offense doesn’t want them to be. With Sam LaPorta out, it makes life for the Jacksonville LBs a lot easier.

I’d be remiss to not mention Jaguars rookie wideout Brian Thomas. He’s been consistently outstanding, a legit No. 1 target and playmaker already. His size, speed and confident panache make Thomas a major potential problem. The Jaguars have a pair of quality pass-catching tight ends in Brenston Strange and Evan Engram, too. If they get anything from the likes of Christian Kirk or Gabe Davis, even Mac Jones can make some hay against a very good Lions secondary.

Final score prediction

The Lions have the better unit in every phase of this matchup against the Jaguars. As long as Detroit doesn’t get cute playing with its food, this shouldn’t be a stressful Sunday for Lions fans.

Lions 36, Jaguars 13

 

Lions vs. Packers: Last minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Packers: Last minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 9 battle in the NFC North

The phrase “football weather” conjures up visions of crisp autumn afternoons, with a chill in the air and maybe a little rain, perhaps a good end of the field from the wind. For the first time this season, the Detroit Lions will experience football weather.

The seasonable conditions in Green Bay make forecasting the late-afternoon game between the Lions and Packers more difficult. Between the unpredictability of Mother Nature and the end of daylight savings time, it’s something of a discombobulated Sunday morning in figuring out who will win this game.

The 6-1 Lions can win–and win big. The 6-2 Packers can also win–and win emphatically. Detroit is rightly favored, but how will it play out?

Why I think the Lions will win

The high-powered Lions offense can outscore anyone, anywhere. And I think the catalyst behind why Ben Johnson’s offense is so dominant has shifted as the 2024 season has progressed. It used to be the offensive line, but now the primary impetus is the play of Jared Goff at quarterback.

Goff is playing as well as any player in the league, regardless of position. The fact he’s doing it at the most important position is a huge reason why the Lions are approaching offensive juggernaut status. The precision. The field vision. The preternatural calmness in the face of defensive chaos. Goff is very deserving of the NFL MVP talk.

That offensive line is still great, too. The left side has been a little shaky lately, but overall, Hank Fraley’s veteran line is as good as it gets. In Green Bay, they’ll need to prove it in the run game. Because that’s the clearest path to victory for Detroit this afternoon.

Run the bleeping ball. Ram it down Green Bay’s throat with the lethal combination of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Have Penei Sewell, Frank Ragnow and friends push the Packers line around, using the unsure footing in the soggy tundra to their advantage. I’m confident Ben Johnson will deploy that as a primary game plan.

It’s helped by the Packers scheme, which doesn’t blitz often. On the surface, that would seem more pertinent to the pass protection, but the run game can benefit from knowing that the Packers rely heavily on their linebackers and safeties to make reactive plays, not proactively attacking. That plays directly into the hands of the Lions offense — especially in the inclement footing and weather.

That also plays into the play-action that Goff and his receivers do so well. Green Bay’s linebackers are pretty solid, and quite fast to close. But if they get sucked up by the run fake, Sam LaPorta can get that much more open in the seam and on out routes, and Amon-Ra St. Brown gets a little more room to operate over the middle and quickly switch from receiver to runner. Nobody does it better.

The iffy status of top Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander should help offset Detroit not having Jameson Williams, who is serving the second of his two-game suspension.

This is also the rare game where the Lions have at least a push at kicker. No disrespect to Jake Bates, but it’s been a process of the first-year Lions kicker earning trust. Bates is doing just that with a heretofore perfect start on field goals. He hasn’t kicked outside before, and that does bring some concern back. However, the Packers are on their second kicker in Brandon McManus. He’s also been perfect in his two games with Green Bay, so maybe the Lions don’t have an advantage, but in Bates we (mostly) trust. Nailing the game-winner in Minnesota with the game plan specifically playing to let Bates kick it did wonders for the young kicker, and also this fan’s faith in him.

What worries me about the Packers

If there is any team that can try to successfully outscore the Lions, it’s Green Bay. Their balanced, well-coordinated offense actually averages more yards per game (388) than Detroit’s, and the Packers are top 10 in both rushing and passing.

Jordan Love has thrown the ball very well, and he’s got a lot of weapons at his disposal. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft all have at least 20 targets, meaning Love isn’t shy about spreading the ball around to his best option–and all those guys are good options. Some are more consistent than others, but the Lions secondary will be challenged by the Packers’ diverse passing offense.

That makes getting to Love with the pass rush and forcing him into the mistakes he’s shown he will make an imperative for Aaron Glenn’s defense. They’ll need to do that with Levi Onwuzurike and Al-Quadin Muhammad as the EDGEs thanks to a plethora of injuries. Both are best in small doses, but the extreme lack of depth means they’ll be relied upon to play heavy minutes in unfamiliar field conditions.

They also have to worry about Josh Jacobs, a running back whose style is similar to what Detroit saw last week in Tony Pollard–who had an impressively productive day against the Lions’ stingy run defense. The Packers use Reed as a running weapon nicely, and Love can get outside the pocket and run a little (though his gimpy groin might hinder that).

The Packers defense gives up a lot of yards, but they’re very good at creating takeaways and capitalizing on mistakes. Green Bay leads the league in creating turnovers; 19 takeaways in eight games is no fluke. One of the reasons the Packers have a relatively low team tackling grade from PFF is that they attack the ball more than they try to end the play. Gibbs and especially Goff (4 fumbles in two games) need to be vigilant in protecting the ball from prying Packers punches.

Green Bay upgraded at defensive coordinator in dumping one-time Lions flop Joe Barry and replacing him with the more creative, more teaching-oriented Jeff Hafley. Ben Johnson hasn’t seen Hafley’s defense before, and that might lead to some feeling-out process and a slow start for Detroit’s offense. I don’t think the Lions can afford many empty possessions in this one.

Final score prediction

This one’s tough. I think the first team to 20 points wins, and these are two of the best first-quarter offenses in the league. I trust Jared Goff to make fewer mistakes than Jordan Love, especially if the Packers are pressing to score from behind. It’s up to the Lions dilapidated defense to force that scenario, and that’s a tough ask in Green Bay.

Lions 36, Packers 34

Lions vs. Titans: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

Lions vs. Titans: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction for the Week 8 matchup in Ford Field

It’s a wonderful football Sunday here in Michigan. The morning coffee cuts through the chilly air. It’s hoodie and hat weather, and I’m repping the Lions with each.

The Detroit Lions welcome the Titans from Tennessee to this beautiful fall day. Of course, playing in the dome in Ford Field sort of negates the autumnal charm of the Great Lakes. Then again, Dan Campbell’s 5-1 Lions aren’t looking to make the Titans trip enjoyable–nor should they.

Why I think the Lions will win

Tennessee enters the game with a 1-5 record, thanks in large part to a heretofore dreadful offense that is plagued by turnovers and awful quarterback play from Will Levis and (last week) Mason Rudolph. They’re dead last in passing yards per game despite having an impressive (on paper) receiving corps in Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Hopkins (now gone) and TE Chig Okonkwo, plus versatile RB Tony Pollard.

Quarterback play has been bad, but so has pass protection. Tennessee ranks 26th in sack percentage allowed and 27th in pass-blocking grades from PFF, with first-round rookie LT JC Latham really struggling early on. The new offense under rookie head coach Brian Callahan hasn’t clicked yet.

All that is to say — this is not an offense that can outscore Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and the Lions offense. Even without Jameson Williams, the Lions have more than enough firepower to win a shootout against Tennessee. And the Titans seem quite averse to trying to even try to get into a shootout with their offense.

Even with the banged-up Lions pass rush, this is not the kind of offense or team mindset that can effectively exploit the Detroit vulnerability. The Lions run defense remains very good, though they do remain somewhat susceptible to runners like Pollard who can cut back at full speed and read blocks well.

Back to that Lions offense. With Goff playing as well as any quarterback in the league right now, this should be a game where the Lions can score 30-plus points. Tennessee’s defense isn’t bad at all, but they also haven’t seen a precise, creative, balanced unit like the Lions yet. Goff’s unfailing willingness to take what the defense gives him and the diverse barrage of weapons at his disposal are capable of quickly frustrating the Titans defense.

What worries me about the Titans

Tennessee continues to sport an impressive defensive line, even with former coach Terrell Williams now in Detroit. Jeffery Simmons is as good as it gets on the interior. Massive rookie T’Vondre Sweat effectively and actively takes up a lot of space. Sweat is questionable for the game, but if he plays, the inside-out runs and delayed handoffs will not work well for Detroit’s offense. Their linebackers play well behind the duo, too–even without Ernest Jones. Any hesitation from the RBs will not end well for Gibbs or Montgomery.

Despite trading Hopkins, the Titans receivers still do have some real talent. Ridley is playing better than his stats would indicate, and Tyler Boyd is a tough matchup over the middle. Okonkwo and Pollard are both excellent receivers who can make the first tackler miss, so the Lions LBs and safeties will need to stay disciplined and alert.

I do have some concerns about the pass rush, or lack thereof. Al-Quadin Muhammad is Detroit’s top EDGE in this game, but he comes from the practice squad and hasn’t played in a game since 2022. If coordinator Aaron Glenn tries too hard to scheme up the rush, it does take away from the coverage but especially the tackling and containment after the catch, and that’s where these Titans receivers can win.

Then there’s the more abstract. It’s hard for a team to get such consistently bad play from players who do seem to have some real ability. That starts with Will Levis, who is effective in a Baker Mayfield kind of way until he makes truly ponderous decisions and terrible throws at the least opportune times. Their cornerbacks are solid but don’t always play to their potential. Perhaps missing L’Jarius Sneed will provide an opportunity for a heretofore unheralded defensive back to step up and make a name. Tennessee is overdue for something like that to happen.

And, of course, the history factor. The Lions have never beaten the Titans. Most of the games have been more about Detroit finding ways to lose than the Titans being that much better (2008 excepted). History must be respected before repeating it can be avoided.

Final score prediction

This is the “easiest” game left on the Lions schedule. Worry about a trap game if you will, but I believe that Dan Campbell and his staff will avoid falling victim to overconfidence. It might not result in the lopsided outcome that my Titans Wire colleagues all predicted, but the Lions should win comfortably.

Lions 26, Titans 13