In a welterweight bout on the main card, Stephen Thompson and Belal Muhammad meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 199 – also known as UFC Vegas 45 – at UFC Apex in Enterprise, Nev. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 199: Thompson vs. Muhammad odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 4 p.m. ET and the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Thompson, a.k.a. “Wonderboy”, heads into this one as a moderate favorite. He has a three-inch reach advantage, although Muhammad has a slight 4.61-to-4.06 significant strikes landed per minute advantage and 1.80-to-0.30 takedown advantage.
Thompson is looking to bounce back after a unanimous-decision loss to Gilbert Burns at UFC 264 in July. Eight of his past nine fights went the distance, with the lone exception of a KO/TKO loss in Round 2 against Anthony Pettis in March 2019.
Muhammad enters 5-0-1 across his last six outings, including a unanimous-decision win over Demian Maia last time out at UFC 263 in June. Nine of his last 11 fights have gone the distance.
UFC Fight Night 199 Thompson vs. Muhammad: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Thompson -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Muhammad +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -260 | No +180)
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UFC Fight Night 199 Thompson vs. Muhammad: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Thompson (16-5-1) | Muhammad (19-3-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
Thompson (-230) is a little on the expensive side, costing you more than two times your potential return. He tends to leave his fate in the hands of the judges more often than not which makes him a risky play, and Muhammad is one tough customer who will make him work for it in another close one.
PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
While playing Yes (-260): Fight to Go the Distance is a little risky at more than two and a half times per your return, look to THOMPSON ON POINTS (-117) for a much better value in the Method of Victory section.
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