The No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-2) clash with the No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) Saturday in the Playstation Fiesta Bowl. The kickoff at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET and the game airs on ESPN. Below, we look at the Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Oklahoma State had its College Football Playoff chances spoiled with a Big XII title game loss to the No. 6 Baylor Bears 21-16 as 7-point favorites.
The Cowboys allow the fewest points per game and yards per play in the Big XII and have the Big XII Coach of the Year in Mike Gundy. Oklahoma State is 9-3-1 ATS and 4-8-1 O/U with the ninth-hardest schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.
Notre Dame is the last team out of the College Football Playoff, and former head coach Brian Kelly left the program abruptly after accepting the same gig for the LSU Tigers.
The Fighting Irish have marquee victories vs. the Wisconsin Badgers and the Purdue Boilermakers but lost at home to the No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats 24-13 Oct. 2. Notre Dame is 9-3 ATS and 6-6 O/U with the 49th-toughest schedule (Sagarin).
Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Oklahoma State -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Notre Dame -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Oklahoma State +0.5 (-110) | Notre Dame -0.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame odds, lines, picks and predictions
Get some action on this matchup at Tipico Sportsbook, a trusted, global sports-betting leader and Sportsbook Wire’s official betting partner.
Place your legal, online sports bets in CO and NJ at Tipico now. IA, Tipico is coming to your state soon! New customer offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $100 in instant bet credits! 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Bet now!
Prediction
Oklahoma State 23, Notre Dame 17
Money line
BET OKLAHOMA STATE (-110) for 1 unit because I really like how its defense matches up against Notre Dame. We’re just getting there a bit late as they were plus-money earlier in the day.
Notre Dame’s leading rusher, RB Kyren Williams, opted out of the Fiesta Bowl to prep for the NFL Draft, and the Fighting Irish’s ground game was probably going to struggle vs. Oklahoma State’s defense anyhow.
For instance, Notre Dame ranks 99th in line yards per snap, 87th in rushing success rate and 108th in offensive busted drive rate (according to Football Outsiders). Whereas Oklahoma State’s defense is second in total efficiency, ranks third in line yards per snap and fifth in rushing yards allowed per game.
If Notre Dame doesn’t get production out of its rushing attack then the Fighting Irish will be forced to convert a bunch of long third-downs. This is a situation that Notre Dame figures to lose.
Oklahoma State is 23rd in defensive third-down conversion rate and has the highest sack rate in the country while Notre Dame’s offensive line is 106th in sack rate allowed (per Football Outsiders).
This pass-rush strength-on-weakness edge in Oklahoma State’s favor is big enough to be the differentiator between these two even teams. Also, Oklahoma State has one of the best secondaries in the Big XII, making it even more difficult for Notre Dame QB Jack Coan and co.
BET OKLAHOMA STATE (-110).
Against the spread
PASS since Oklahoma State +0.5 (-110) doesn’t offer up any insurance for our Cowboys money line wager. For what it’s worth, Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its past five bowl games with a plus-10.9 spread differential.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 45.5 (-115) for 1 unit because Notre Dame also has one of the best defenses in the nation. Notre Dame ranks eighth in defensive efficiency (Football Outsiders), ninth in points per play and 14th in opponent’s third-down conversion rate.
Plus there’s a line freeze in the betting market for the total in this game. According to Pregame.com, more than three-fourths of the action is on the Over, but the total hasn’t budged off the opener. It seems that the oddsmakers are confident in their total and are cool with taking more Over money.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and, soon, IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter and SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]