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2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

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It’s time for the postseason. This week, the FedExCup Playoffs begin with the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tenn. It’s the 1st round of the playoffs as the top 70 players in the standings fight for 50 spots in the next round at the BMW Championship.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets from BetMGM Sportsbook among the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scottie Scheffler is back in the field this week, fresh off winning a gold medal in Paris 2 weeks ago. Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg are also among the favorites behind Scheffler. Lucas Glover won this event last year, but he failed to qualify for the playoffs so he won’t be able to defend his title.

TPC Southwind is a par 70 and 7,243 yards long. It doesn’t require length off the tee and the water hazards throughout the course make it a challenging track for players. The winning score has been between 13-under and 16-under par in each of the last 5 years. Scoring opportunities are somewhat limited by the fact that there are only 2 par 5s on the course, so there’s an emphasis on par-4 scoring and mid-iron approaches.

FedEx St. Jude Championship: Best outright winner predictions

FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:13 a.m. ET.

Rory McIlroy (+180)

McIlroy usually performs very well in the playoffs and TPC Southwind is a course that fits his game well with how many mid-to-long irons he’ll have to hit. He’s had finishes of 3rd, 4th and 12th here since 2019.

Ludvig Aberg (+350)

Aberg is among the best long-iron players on the planet and his accuracy off the tee will have him positioned well in the fairway more often than not. It’s his tournament debut, but that’s never caused any issues for him before.

Xander Schauffele (+160)

Schauffele is one of the most reliable players on tour right now with his consistency. He doesn’t have a great record at TPC Southwind, but his game is suited for just about every course.

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FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-10 picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+175)

It’s tempting to bet Fleetwood to win after his podium finish in the Olympics and given his record at this course, but a top-10 bet is much safer. He has finishes of 3rd and 4th at this event in his last 4 starts, so he knows how to navigate TPC Southwind.

Hideki Matsuyama (+225)

Matsuyama is a short-game wizard, which will come in handy at TPC Southwind where players are bound to miss the greens. He finished 3rd at the Olympics and his ball-striking is on point at the moment. It’s a great recipe for him to play well again this week.

Sahith Theegala (+300)

Theegala has only played this event twice (2022-23), but he finished 13th each time. It might be safer taking him for a top-20, but getting risky with a top-10 bet is worth the gamble because of how close he’s come in the last 2 years.

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FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-20 picks

Taylor Moore (+275)

Moore finished 31st in 2022 and 5th last year, his only 2 starts in the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He also has 2 top-12s in his last 5 starts on tour this season, so he’s playing well.

Sungjae Im (+100)

Im had a couple of close calls at the FedEx St. Jude Championship the last 2 years, finishing 6th in 2022 and 2nd last year. He’s in good form right now despite struggling last weekend at the Wyndham Championship, making him a good bet for a top-20 finish in just a 70-player field.

FedEx St. Jude Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Sungjae Im (-105) vs. Russell Henley (-120)

Henley is surprisingly favored over Im in this bet, but I’ll take the underdog at nearly even money. Henley finished 6th here last year, but missed the cut in 2022.

Aaron Rai (-110) vs. Billy Horschel (-110)

Rai just won the Wyndham Championship and while it’s possible he could struggle coming down from the high of victory after what was a long 3 days in North Carolina, I like him to finish higher than Horschel in this no-cut event.

FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top Korean

Sungjae Im (+200)

Im and Tom Kim are co-favorites at +200 to finish as the top Korean this week and both are honestly good fits for this course. But given Im’s record, he should have a slight edge.

FedEx St. Jude Championship – First-round leader

Alex Noren (+5500)

Noren is 4th on tour in 1st-round scoring average (68.47), so he often gets off to great starts. For a course that demands accuracy off the tee, he should find himself near the top of the leaderboard after Round 1.

Justin Thomas (+4000)

Thomas led the Scottish Open after a 1st-round 62 and then came back with an opening-round 68 at the Open Championship a week later. He’s gotten off to strong starts in recent events and he hasn’t shot worse than 68 at this tournament in his last 4 starts.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group C winner: Aaron Rai (+400)

Henley (+300), Tom Kim (+330), Corey Conners (+350) and Viktor Hovland (+400) are the other 4 competitors in this market, making Rai tied for the worst odds of the 5. His win at the Wyndham was impressive, once again showing he’s one of the best ball-strikers on tour.

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2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The regular season has wrapped up for 2022-23, but that just means the FedExCup Playoffs are about to get underway. The 1st leg of the playoffs begins this week at the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis, which is once again hosted by TPC Southwind.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scottie Scheffler is back in the field after taking the last 2 weeks off and he’s unsurprisingly ranked as the top player in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Jon Rahm is No. 2, followed by Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler.

TPC Southwind is a par 70 and plays at 7,243 yards, featuring firm Bermuda greens and penalizing rough. There are only 2 par-5s on the scorecard, so birdie opportunities aren’t as abundant as some other courses. Will Zalatoris won with a score of 15-under par last year, beating Sepp Straka in a playoff. Zalatoris won’t be defending his title as he’s missed most of the season with an injury.

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FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:40 p.m. ET.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+500)

Fitzpatrick is 2 for 4 in top-5s at this event since 2019, finishing 4th, 6th, 57th and 5th in his last 4 appearances. That’s a stellar track record and worth betting on this week, similar to the way Webb Simpson owns Sedgefield and the Wyndham Championship no matter his current form. Fitzpatrick’s driver has been off lately but if he straightens it out, he’ll be in contention.

Collin Morikawa (+375)

One of the most important factors in finding success at TPC Southwind is keeping the ball out of the Bermuda rough. Morikawa may not be long, but he’s an accurate ball striker. With only 2 par-5s on the course, he won’t be at a significant disadvantage length-wise. He finished 5th here last year.

J.T. Poston (+700)

Poston has finished 2nd and 7th in his last 2 starts, which came after also notching back-to-back 6th-place finishes at the John Deere Classic and Scottish Open. He’s finished 18th, 30th and 20th here in his last 3 tries but he’s a worthwhile long shot for a top-5.

FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-10 picks

Jordan Spieth (+225)

Spieth’s putter has been ice cold this season, ranking 82nd in strokes gained: putting. He’s still hitting it pretty well, ranking 28th in SG: tee-to-green, but his putter has to get going. If it does, he could find himself in contention; he has two 12th-place finishes in his last 4 trips here.

Brian Harman (+275)

Harman’s only finish outside the top 10 in his last 4 starts was a T-12 at the Scottish Open. Otherwise, he’s finished 2nd, 9th and won the Open. His odds for a top-10 should probably be shorter than this, but we’ll take the good price on him to keep things rolling.

Stephan Jaeger (+400)

Jaeger has finished between 9th and 34th in his last 5 starts this season, striking the ball exceptionally well in that span. His 46th-place finish here last year is nothing to write home about, but he’s in excellent form for a top-10.

Also see: FedEx St. Jude Championship outright winner predictions

FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-20 picks

Harris English (+200)

English has 2 top-10s in his last 3 starts at this tournament, including a T-4 in 2021. He played relatively well at the Wyndham Championship, tying for 33rd, but this seems to be a course where he plays well.

Tommy Fleetwood (-110)

When Fleetwood has made the cut recently, he’s finished near the top of the leaderboard. In his last 7 starts when he’s made the cut, he’s finished no worse than T-18 and has 4 top-10s in that span. He finished 4th here in 2019, as well.

Rickie Fowler (-110)

Fowler has been a top-20 machine this season, finishing in the top 20 a whopping 14 times. He came in 15th here in 2020 and is playing some of the best golf of his career right now.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Andrew Putnam (+220)
Byeong Hun An (+138)

FedEx St. Jude Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Jon Rahm (-145) vs. Patrick Cantlay (+115)

It might seem like a steep price to pay for Rahm over Cantlay, but this is setting up to be a great week for the Spaniard. He’s finished 5th and 7th in 2 of his last 3 starts here and finished 2nd in his last tournament, the Open Championship.

Sepp Straka (+120) vs. Jason Day (-150)

Straka nearly won this event last year, losing to Zalatoris in a playoff. Day played well at the Open last month, but a line of -150 over Straka feels expensive. I’ll take the value with Straka, who has a win and a 2nd-place finish in his last 3 starts.

FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top Continental European

Jon Rahm (+110)

Going back to Rahm with this bet against the likes of Viktor Hovland, Straka, Jaeger and others. Rahm has longer odds here than he does for a top-10, so I like the value at +110.

FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top English

Matt Fitzpatrick (+300)

We’ve already discussed Fitzpatrick’s course history, which is the primary reason I like him at all this week. Tyrrell Hatton and Fleetwood have shorter odds than Fitzpatrick, but they should be about even to be the top Englishman.

FedEx St. Jude Championship – First-round leader

Sepp Straka (+4500)

Straka was 2 shots off the lead after Round 1 last year when he shot 64 on Thursday, followed by rounds of 66, 68 and 67. He’s a player who can run hot and cold, so he’s a good FRL bet.

Tony Finau (+3300)

Finau also shot 64 in the 1st round last year, which was tied for 3rd after Round 1. He hasn’t been in great form lately but this could be the week he gets back on track with the playoffs starting.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group A winner: Jon Rahm (+320)

This group has the big guns: Scheffler (+210), McIlroy (+320), Cantlay (+550) and Schauffele (+550). Yet, it’s Rahm who I like the best, particularly at a number of +320.

USA vs. Rest of field: The field (+115)

There’s a strong rest-of-world contingent in this field, led by Rahm and Hovland. Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick are also strong contenders, as is Hatton. At plus money, it’s worth a bet.