Tag: fantasy schedule swings

2024 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets an easier schedule for 2024? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the more accurate among fantasy positions, thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and the difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is more telling than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2024?

Best schedule swings

 Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet (SEA) – After two seasons as the No. 20 fantasy running back, Walker gets a chance to take advantage of the most dramatic swing for the position. His schedule strength rockets up from No. 30 to No. 2 and that should be apparent so long as Charbonnet doesn’t take a hefty chunk away from him.

Aaron Jones (MIN) – The offensive line won’t be an advantage unlike back in Green Bay, but Jones’ first season with the Vikings with a boost from the No. 29 up to the No. 9 schedule. He wasn’t there last year, but he suffered through the worst schedule in 2023 while with the Packers. The schedule should help get him back on track.

Breece Hall (NYJ) – Hall already exploded last year when the Jets kicked off the training wheels and let Hall become the workhorse back. He’ll enjoy a lighter schedule this time around and maybe even a passing offense that can take the pressure of him.

Javonte Williams (DEN) – After a tough 2023 when he was still recovering from his torn ACL, Williams has a nice upgrade to his schedule but he seems to have lost a bit from his injury and the Broncos added Audric Estime. This isn’t as safe of an advantage as it might seem.

Rachaad White (TB) – With the Buccaneers getting a rougher passing schedule, White may already be in line for more receptions from the backfield. But he also gets a solid upgrade in rushing schedule that should keep him on the field and productive. Bucky Irving was drafted to help out, but an easier schedule should keep White looking better and keep Irving from making inroads for a bigger share.

About the same schedule strength

The only notable teams are the Bengals and Colts who repeat what were already tough schedules from 2023.

Worst schedule swings

Christian McCaffrey (SF) – Okay, so the best running back from 2023 has the worst swing in schedule strength. Is that enough to sway you from taking him with the 1.01 pick? Probably not. McCaffrey’s problem is more about staying healthy but he’s always a monster when he plays because he just switches to being a receiver if the rushing lanes are clogged. Still, will be interesting to track.

Bijan Robinson (ATL) – Not Bijan too! The Falcons’ stud running back is hoping to become “all that he can be” now that Arthur Smith is gone and new OC Zac Robinson wants to use him extensively in any way they can get the ball into his hands. But the dip from No. 7 down to the No. 29 is concerning for any back. On the plus, Robinson’s volume should be much higher for 2024, and he was already the No. 8 fantasy running back last year with partial use.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) – While Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson should be better than their schedules, the same may not be true for the aging Elliott, who has slowed down and is now back in Dallas for the second time for a team with a lesser O-line and now the worst schedule for running backs. Elliott is no lock to remain the RB1 in Dallas all season and has fallen deep in drafts. This won’t make him any more appealing.

Travis Etienne (JAC) – The schedule strength has taken a downturn from 2023, but like McCaffrey and Robinson, Etienne is a dual-threat back and the center of their backfield that contains no real competition.

James Cook (BUF) – This is a bit concerning for a lesser talented back than the above players. Cook ended as the No. 11 fantasy back last year as a surprise, but he was facing the No. 2 best fantasy schedule for the position. He drops below average for 2024, and the Bills offense will be different with their best wideouts gone. That may help Cook see more receptions, but he’s probably not “better than his schedule.”

2023 Schedule Swings: Running Backs

Which RB gets an easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The schedule strength for running backs is always the most accurate among fantasy positions, thanks to their volume of work and the tendency of teams to feature the run and rely more consistently on individual players. That makes this analysis the most reliable.

The average fantasy points allowed by defenses to running backs last year were applied to each offense’s schedule to determine their true schedule strength of last year, and applied the same values to their 2023 schedule. This includes considering both home and away venues separately for each defense.

The resulting fantasy point advantages are compared between years and their difference is their “swing points.”  The higher the Swing Points, the better their schedule is compared to last year. This analysis is more telling than standard schedule strength. You know what happened last year with players – do they get an easier or tougher schedule for 2023?

Best schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
GB 28.3 6.5 -21.8 GB 10 31
PIT 25.7 10.7 -14.9 PIT 7 28
CLE 21.2 18.4 -2.8 CLE 2 20
TB 19.5 12.5 -7.0 TB 5 24
MIN 16.1 7.1 -9.0 MIN 9 27
NO 14.3 8.0 -6.3 NO 8 23
KC 10.0 29.6 19.6 KC 1 6
BAL 9.5 1.8 -7.6 BAL 14 25

Aaron Jones / AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers – The Packers were saddled with one of the worst running back schedules last year, but Aaron Jones was still the No. 6 fantasy back while Dillion fell from No. 22 to No. 28. Jones turned in another solid year as a rusher and added a career-best 59 catches while Dillon handled almost the same touches as 2021, but wasn’t as effective. The departure of Aaron Rodgers throws everything into question, but at least Jones and Dillion won’t have the schedule working against them.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers – In his rookie season, Harris faced the No. 4 easiest schedule for running backs and ended up as the No. 3 fantasy back thanks in part to his 74 catches. When he suffered a major decline in schedule strength down to only No. 28, he ended up as the No. 14 fantasy back while the Steelers adjusted to life without Ben Roethlisberger. Harris inherits yet another major shift in schedule strength this year, back up to one of the more advantageous slate of games.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – The Browns are consistently in the Top-5 in rushing stats  and have the upgrade in passing with a full season of Deshaun Watson for 2022. Chubb ended as the No. 5 fantasy back anyway, with a career-best 302 carries for 1,525 yards. The Browns lost Kareem Hunt with no real upgrades and just Jerome Ford to play the complementary role. Chubb’s a safe bet for another stellar year that may not be quite as busy, but could be even more effective.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – As of this writing, Leonard Fournette has not signed with anyone, so he could return. The Buccaneers are entering a new era without Tom Brady and relying on a new offensive scheme under first-year OC Dave Canales. Chase Edmonds is new and yet already proven to be just the back half of any committee. The second-year rusher White is the heir apparent to the starting role after just 129 carries as a rookie with only a 3.7-yard average. Another back may still be acquired but at least White is situated with a better situation and schedule than he experienced last year.

About the same schedule strength

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
CIN 6.9 -9.2 -16.1 CIN 22 29
BUF 3.3 -17.0 -20.3 BUF 24 30
WAS 1.2 0.0 -1.2 WAS 18 18
LAR 1.2 1.2 0.0 LAR 15 17
DET 0.3 12.0 11.7 DET 6 13
MIA -4.2 -29.6 -25.5 MIA 30 32
CHI -4.6 -7.7 -3.1 CHI 21 21
TEN -10.6 17.4 28.0 TEN 3 2
JAC -12.0 2.1 14.2 JAC 13 11
CAR -19.0 -20.7 -1.7 CAR 26 19
NYJ -19.3 0.0 19.3 NYJ 17 7
DEN -19.5 2.5 21.9 DEN 11 5
HOU -19.9 -11.3 8.6 HOU 23 15
SF -22.2 2.4 24.6 SF 12 4
IND -22.3 -3.1 19.1 IND 19 8
LAC -22.6 15.4 38.0 LAC 4 1

This middle tier says that the schedule shouldn’t be notably bad or good from 2022, so the expectations shouldn’t change in regard to current year opponents. The notable unchanged include Miami facing the No. 30 schedule after battling the No. 32 last year. Derrick Henry (3 vs. 2) and Austin Ekeler (4 vs. 1) again enjoy top ranked schedules.

Worst schedule swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
ARI -23.9 -7.3 16.5 ARI 20 10
PHI -24.2 -28.6 -4.4 PHI 28 22
SEA -24.9 -33.0 -8.0 SEA 32 26
ATL -25.0 -21.1 3.9 ATL 27 16
NE -26.1 0.4 26.5 NE 16 3
LV -38.0 -19.8 18.2 LV 25 9
DAL -41.2 -29.2 11.9 DAL 29 12
NYG -42.2 -32.8 9.4 NYG 31 14

As it works out, most of the worst swings are just teams that faced average schedules last year, dropping down to face one of the worst. An impact to be sure, but at least no backfield suffers a freefall from the best to the worst schedule.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – Barkley looked to face a bad schedule in 2022 when he seemingly inherited one of the worst schedules but it ended up not quite so bad as it played out and he managed to stay healthy for the first time since his stellar rookie season. But it is back to yet another tough slate of opponents based on last year’s stats. Barkley has already proven to be better than the effects of a bad schedule anyway, and the offense appears to be on a very positive track between HC Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys – Like Fournette in Tampa Bay, there is a chance that Ezekiel Elliott re-signs with the Cowboys at a reduced rate (and assumedly workload as well). But Pollard parlayed a fine fourth season into a Top-10 finish among fantasy backs and forced the Cowboys to rethink their backfield. The Cowboys spoke to wanting more rushing this season which is nearly impossible given that their backfield handled an NFL-high 506 carries in 2022. And the only replacements for Elliott are Malik Davis, Ronald Jones and the diminutive Deuce Vaughn. The Cowboys have faced average schedules the last few years, so this downgrade comes at an interesting time with backfield roles changing.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders – Like Barkley, the Raiders schedule looked very tough entering 2022 but Jacobs excelled in the first season under HC Josh McDaniels as one of the most productive backs in the NFL. It helped that he went from a previous high of only 273 rushes to 340 carries last year. There’s a contentious contract situation that could be involved and a quarterback situation that is changing. That alone spells some risk, and the schedule won’t be an advantage even if he somehow repeats his 393 touches from last year.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots – The Patriots offense went without OC Josh McDaniels but that meant a heavy reliance on second-year Stevenson, especially as a receiver (69 receptions). That allowed him a Top-10 finish after only ranking No. 48 as a rookie. The offensive scheme is changing again this year with Bill O’Brien as the new coordinator but the Pats appear likely to repeat the usage of Stevenson. The schedule downgrade from what was one of the best down to only average will have an impact, but much of what Stevenson did was related to his receptions, and that should insulate himself from any dramatic decline in fantasy points.

2023 Schedule Swings: Quarterbacks

Which quarterback gets a far easier schedule for 2023? Who experiences the worst drop in schedule strength?

The same quarterback playing in the same offense with mostly the same players should produce the same results from last year, right? Of course not. The difference is that even if almost nothing changes on a team, they never face the same schedule from year to year. So a part of the valuation of a fantasy player should be if his schedule is easier or more challenging than the previous season.

The fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks by each defense and venue (both at home and away games) were arrayed against each team’s schedule for both 2022 and 2023. Then they are ranked from 1-32 for which teams had the best or worst schedules they played against last year and applied that against what they will face for 2023. Swings of less than 10 in schedule strength ranking say that the schedule isn’t reliably different for the player.

Best Schedule Swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
ATL 38.2 20.7 -17.4 ATL 1 28
LV 34.9 16.9 -18.0 LV 2 29
CAR 28.3 5.3 -23.0 CAR 10 32
DEN 15.9 11.8 -4.1 DEN 4 23
NO 13.3 11.7 -1.6 NO 5 21
PIT 11.7 -8.3 -20.1 PIT 25 30
CLE 10.5 -12.0 -22.5 CLE 29 31
BAL 8.9 0.7 -8.2 BAL 15 27

Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons – No NFL team ran fewer plays or gained fewer yards than the Falcons last year. So the rebuilding year happened at a bad time, with the schedule already working against them. Throw in a rookie quarterback and the results were not shocking. But the upgrade in quarterback schedule is immense as HC Arthur Smith’s second season kicks off with a more season crew of Ridder, Drake London, a healthy Kyle Pitts (hopefully) and the hype monster of Bijan Robinson. The Falcons may not rocket to the top of the standings, but an improvement appears a lock and the schedule is going to work for them this year.

Quarterbacks, Las Vegas Raiders – Maybe it will be Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe it will be Brian Hoyer. Maybe it will be fourth-round pick Aiden O’Connell. The only certainty is that it will not be Derek Carr for the first time in ten years. The offense under HC Josh McDaniels ended with moderate passing stats though most of that all went to Davante Adams.  And the schedule was one of the worst, so just ending average on the pass was a success, even if Carr’s final year was in a tough situation. There will be  opportunity once it is certain which quarterback is the starter.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers – Optimism is high for the 1.01 pick of this year. He lands on a rebuilding Carolina team that’s starting over, again, and restocked their offense mostly through free agency. It’s a tall order to expect even the best player in college to step into a highly productive role on a team that’s starting over with coaches, scheme and personnel, but at least the schedule won’t work against him as he starts to learn the ropes.

Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) – The Broncos were average at best in the first season of Wilson under center. But now HC Sean Payton shows up to do his magic to the sluggish offense of the last few seasons. The jury is still out on Wilson, who hasn’t been a difference-maker in the last two years, and the offense hasn’t had many upgrades while rumors abounded regarding  potential trades of their wideouts. But Wilson gets a Top-5 schedule for 2022, and just in time to learn a new offense that worked wonders in New Orleans.

About the same schedule strength

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
TB 6.6 6.9 0.3 TB 8 16
CHI 4.9 13.3 8.4 CHI 3 9
DAL 3.2 -1.4 -4.6 DAL 20 24
KC 2.9 6.5 3.6 KC 9 14
MIA 1.2 -0.4 -1.6 MIA 19 22
NYJ -0.1 0.0 0.0 NYJ 17 17
CIN -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 CIN 18 18
JAC -2.7 1.1 3.8 JAC 13 13
TEN -3.1 -10.1 -7.0 TEN 27 26
NE -4.0 0.6 4.6 NE 16 12
MIN -4.0 -5.4 -1.5 MIN 23 20
GB -6.1 10.5 16.6 GB 6 4
NYG -6.8 -4.9 1.8 NYG 21 15
LAR -9.1 -14.0 -4.8 LAR 31 25
BUF -11.0 1.1 12.1 BUF 12 6
SEA -14.8 -8.9 5.9 SEA 26 11

Expect about the same schedule strength from the above teams. The only notable are both the Titans (Ryan Tannehill / Will Levis) and the Rams (Matt Stafford) still face a daunting set of opponents again this year.

Worst Schedule Swings

Swing Pts 2023 Pts 2022 Pts .. SOS 2023 Rank 2022 Rank
HOU -15.5 -7.2 8.4 HOU 24 10
DET -16.4 2.5 18.9 DET 11 3
LAC -19.0 9.5 28.5 LAC 7 1
IND -19.7 -5.4 14.3 IND 22 5
WAS -20.9 -11.4 9.5 WAS 28 8
PHI -21.1 0.8 21.9 PHI 14 2
SF -22.7 -13.0 9.7 SF 30 7
ARI -25.2 -26.2 -1.0 ARI 32 19

Kyler Murray (ARI) –  There are many red flags surrounding the Cards and Murray.  His planned return is uncertain, and his receiving corps was stripped of DeAndre Hopkins. Now he also faces the worst schedule and the largest drop in schedule strength, whenever he can return from his knee injury of 2022.

Quarterback, San Francisco 49ers – Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, or Sam Darnold? Given the recent injury history of the 49ers’ quarterbacks, maybe it’ll be a bit of all three. The schedule strength suffers a dramatic swing from the No. 7 to the No. 30 ranked set of opponents. The 49ers defense helps prevent the need for a shootout and the rushing offense is in great shape with Christian McCaffrey. The overall talent in receivers is there, but an iffy situation at quarterback coupled with one of the worst schedule strengths makes the position risky for 2023.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – Herbert enjoyed what turned out to be the weakest schedule against quarterbacks last year, and while the stats suggest that he’ll have a tougher challenge, it may not be that noticed. The Chargers drafted Quentin Johnson to give them three great options at wideouts, and the drop from No. 1 was only to No. 7 – still better than most of the league.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts – Fantasy fans want to see the Colt’s rookie evolve into the next Lamar Jackson but he already missed last year’s softer No. 5 ranked schedule. Richardson projects as most dangerous, and more valuable in fantasy, from his rushing ability.  The schedule is not kind but he’s not expected to immediately produced a high-powered passing attack.