Tag: fantasy-football-week-4

Running back injuries and vultures marred the early slate last week. Khalil Herbert taking over for David Montgomery cost me a ton of cash. I also would like that second touchdown for Dalvin Cook instead of Alexander Mattison. Don’t even get me started on Jamaal Williams and Chase Edmonds. Will Herbert be a must-start this week? Will we see more vultures? Will Justin Fields ever complete more passes than most nine-man high school football teams? Find out this and more below in this week’s DFS Domination.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Sunday Night

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY

A lot has changed since Super Bowl LV between these teams. One thing that has not is the QB matchup. Patrick Mahomes (QB1) is seeking revenge for being shut out in that game. Only three of Mahomes’ pass-catchers remain from that game, but Mahomes is still the safest play of the four QBs on this slate.

Tom Brady (QB2) threw for three TDs in that game. Two of those went to Rob Gronkowski and one went to Antonio Brown. My “Magic 8 Ball” says we won’t see either of them this week. We will see a few of Brady’s injured weapons return, though, and that should keep him viable this week after a pair of short-handed games.

It was not a good week on the ground for Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB3). He did catch five passes and scored a TD, but it was easily his worst game of the year. Running against Tampa is virtually impossible, but this tableau is full of sketchy RB matchups. Historically, Tampa has been generous to pass-catching backs. CEH has a 12-7 target advantage over Jerick McKinnon (RB6) on the year, but it has been 9-3 over the last two games. Consider CEH as an RB2 or McKinnon as a punt-flex.

Leonard Fournette (RB1) is the only player remaining for either team that scored a TD in that Super Bowl. He also is the only RB on this whole slate that I feel comfortable starting. KC has been so-so against the run, and the Chiefs allowed a fair amount of RB receptions, too. His receptions will dip this week with the return of the other weapons, but he still has the highest floor of any RB here.

Skyy Moore (WR19) was supposed to be more involved last week. Don’t you just love coach speak? He gets the lowest rating of any WR, and he is unusable until he sees an offensive target. Fortunately, JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR4) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (abdomen – WR10) are performing strongly. Smith-Schuster deserves WR2 consideration and MVS can be considered for WR3. Mecole Hardman (WR13) had a down week, but he has provided punt-WR3-level performance all season. He is also the last remaining KC WR from that Super Bowl appearance.

Mike Evans (WR2) will return from his suspension, and Chris Godwin (hamstring – WR6) might return from his injury. This will boost Tom Brady immensely. Julio Jones (PCL – WR8) is also a possible returnee. Evans is an easy WR1, and Godwin would be a WR2, if he plays. I wouldn’t trust Jones yet, though, unless Godwin remains out. Russell Gage (WR7) came up huge against Green Bay. His numbers will drop with the returns, but he is still a safe WR2 play. Breshad Perriman (knee, hamstring – WR11) and Cole Beasley (WR12) are both usable at WR3, but only if both Godwin and Jones don’t play. Jaelon Darden (WR16) should be left to Showdown contests.

This is the slate to consider double-TE or even triple-TE. Travis Kelce (TE1) is the best option. Just get him into your lineup and smile. I’d only consider Noah Gray (TE6) in Showdown.

Cameron Brate (TE4) will see fewer targets now that Tampa is getting their pass-catchers back. He still is a decent flex play if you go multiple-TE.

Monday Night

LOS ANGELES RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO

Matthew Stafford (QB3) had a rough day versus Arizona. He won’t have it any easier this week. Plus, his price won’t be enough of a discount to pivot to him.

At least Jimmy Garoppolo (QB4) will be priced cheaply enough to consider for punting the position. Unfortunately, he is far and away the least talented QB on this slate and is facing an elite defense.

The Rams are playing musical chairs with their backfield. Darrell Henderson (RB5) led the way in Week 1, but Cam Akers (RB4) has been the more valuable the last two weeks. San Fran is stifling against the run making neither more than a cheap pivot RB2.

San Francisco is treading thin at the RB position. Jeff Wilson (RB2) has performed adequately enough to be the second-safest play on this weak slate. The team also has undrafted rookie Jordan Mason (RB6), but he can be ignored. As always, consider Kyle Juszczyk (RB7) in Showdown.

I predicted the down Week 3 for Cooper Kupp (WR1). He will return to stud-dom this game and is a must-start WR1 on a small slate. Allen Robinson (WR9) has 10 targets over the last two weeks, but his production continues to lack. He is a slightly overpriced WR2 here. With Van Jefferson (knee) out for the next month, Ben Skowronek (WR14) and Brandon Powell (WR15) have at least a bit of value. You can consider one of them at WR3, but I wouldn’t.

Deebo Samuel (WR3) is one of only three WRs that I would consider for WR1. I’d also consider using him at WR2 if you want to go cheaper at RB. Brandon Aiyuk (WR5) is a decent WR2 option as well (at a much cheaper price). Jauan Jennings (WR17) and Ray-Ray McCloud (WR18) are not used enough to be relied upon here.

Tyler Higbee (TE2) remains tied for third in TE targets. I will definitely use him in multiple-TE lineups. Kendall Blanton (TE5) returned to the Rams last week and caught a long pass. He should still be left to Showdown.

George Kittle (TE3) returned last Sunday night and performed adequately, at best. I was expecting more despite this being his first game. Still, you can use him in multiple-TE lineups or as a pivot. His breakout is coming eventually.

The Main Slate: recommended DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($8.4k), RB Jamaal Williams ($6.1k), RB Dameon Pierce ($5.6k), WR Gabe Davis ($6.6k), WR Devin Duvernay ($4.1k), WR Kendrick Bourne ($3.7k), TE Mark Andrews ($7.1k), FLEX Khalil Herbert ($5.7k), DST Chicago Bears ($2.7k)

FD Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($8.9k), RB Jamaal Williams ($7.4k), RB Dameon Pierce ($6.8k), WR Gabe Davis ($6.5k), WR Amari Cooper ($7.5k), WR Greg Dortch ($5.3k), TE Mark Andrews ($8.4k), FLEX Robert Tonyan ($4.9k), DST Chicago Bears ($4.1k)

FB Lineup: QB Josh Allen ($7.4k), RB Najee Harris ($5.8k), RB Jamaal Williams ($5.3k), WR Stefon Diggs ($7.4k), WR Zay Jones ($4k), WR Kendrick Bourne ($3.5k), TE Mark Andrews ($6.5k), FLEX Dameon Pierce ($5.1k), FLEX Kareem Hunt ($4.8k)

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Jalen Hurts is a decent third option, but there is no “non-weather” reason to avoid using one of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. Jared Goff and Carson Wentz are decent pivots. Also consider using Jacoby Brissett, Geno Smith, or Davis Mills as a punt play.

Fantasy Four-pack

Josh Allen, Bills @ BAL
($8,400 DK, $8,900 FD) Allen is sitting as the top-ranked QB through three weeks. Now, he gets to face the 30th-ranked pass defense in Baltimore. The only thing that could slow this aerial assault is if there are any remnants of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Ian up the coast in Baltimore.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs. BUF ($8,300 DK, $8,800 FD) If the weather does become a factor in this game, I give a slight advantage to Jackson, who runs more than Allen. This game has the makings of a scoring fest, so get as many stack legs into this matchup as you can.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles vs. JAX
($8,200 DK, $8,600 FD) Philly is more inland than Baltimore, so if you do decide to pivot due to weather, this game has high point potential, too. That said, I don’t trust Hurts’ arm as much as I trust that of Allen or Jackson. A.J. Brown also missed practice this week due to the birth of his child. They may be off-kilter to start this game. If you stack this one perhaps consider using DeVonta Smith or Dallas Goedert instead.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. NE
($6,300 DK, $7,400 FD) I don’t love the upper- to midpriced QBs this week. That said, Rodgers seems to be developing a rapport with his receiving corps as Allen Lazard is healthy and Romeo Doubs looks like an impact rookie. The Patriots just was gouged by Lamar Jackson for four TDs last week. At home, Rodgers will throw for at least two.

DFS Sleepers

Jared Goff, Lions vs. SEA
($5,900 DK, $7,600 FD)  This is perhaps the safest pivot game for stacking if the weather is wreaking havoc across the East Coast. Both teams have many passing-game weapons and questionable pass defenses. Goff’s value slips since Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) cannot go, but you can still stack guys like T.J. Hockenson (hip) and D.J. Chark (ankle) with him.

Jacoby Brissett, Browns @ ATL
($5,500 DK, $6,800 FD)
Atlanta just allowed Geno Smith to throw for 325-2. Prior to that, they allowed five passing TDs over the first two games against Matthew Stafford and Jameis Winston. Stafford is the only QB in that group better than Brissett (and you could argue Stafford is not playing up to form yet this year). Brissett isn’t going to light up the box score, but 225-2 with 25-30 rushing yards is certainly in play. Consider stacking him with Amari Cooper or David Njoku to save some money.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – The prices continue to go down for Jonathan Taylor (toe) and Christian McCaffrey (thigh). It is hard to not take advantage of it despite their minor injuries. That said, I am spending big at QB and WR, so I may opt for something cheaper here. Austin Ekeler has an easy matchup, but we have to be concerned about his early-season rushing numbers. Najee Harris, Cordarrelle Patterson, and James Robinson all make volume-based pivots. If David Montgomery (ankle) misses this game, Khalil Herbert is a must-start. The same goes for Jamaal Williams if D’Andre Swift (shoulder) is out. Miles Sanders, Antonio Gibson, Kareem Hunt, and Dameon Pierce are my discount RB alternatives to avoid the high ownership of Williams and Herbert. If you choose to punt here, consider Breece Hall or Rashaad Penny.

Fantasy Four-pack

Nick Chubb, Browns @ ATL
($7,900 DK, $9,200 FD) Chubb leads the league in rushing yards and is tied for the NFL lead in total RB scores. This comes despite him ceding touches to Kareem Hunt. The FD price is too high but under $8k on DK is hard to pass.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts vs TEN
($8,800 DK, $8,700 FD) Taylor missed some practice this week due to a toe issue, but he is good to go. He has posted a pair of stinkers after decimating Houston in Week 1. He will get his groove back here, at a discounted price.

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers vs. ARI ($8,700 DK, $8,800 FD) McCaffrey also missed practice this week due to a thigh problem. Considering his history of leg injuries, this gives me cause to worry. Thankfully, he is also priced lower than usual. Arizona has allowed four total running back TDs. McCaffrey will get back into the end zone this week … I’d just prefer we saw more passes in his direction.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers @ HOU
($7,700 DK, $8,400 FD) Ekeler’s rushing effectiveness this season has left us scratching our heads as if we had horrible scalp psoriasis. Fortunately, he has feasted in the passing game. Houston has allowed a league-worst 190 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. If Ekeler can’t get it going on the ground this week, he might not all year.

DFS Sleepers

Dameon Pierce, Texans vs. LAC
($5,600 DK, $6,800 FD) The DFS sites have updated everyone’s salary except for Dameon Pierce. Someone needs to tell them that he has the 15th-most rushing yards despite playing sparingly in Week 1. They also can be told that the Chargers are allowing an average of 147 combo yards and a total score per week to opposing backs.

Breece Hall, Jets @ PIT
($5,400 DK, $6,300 FD) Hall has been a PPR beast over the first three weeks. It remains to be seen if the QB change will affect this usage. My money is on Hall remaining an asset. I’d just like to see Michael Carter out of the picture.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – If there was a way to do it, I would stack Josh Allen with both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Unfortunately, I know that is nearly impossible. I will have one of them in every lineup. The other high-priced WRs have solid but not spectacular matchups or some other concern. At WR2 consider Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, DeVonta Smith, or Brandin Cooks. Curtis Samuel can also be considered, although his price is starting to reach that shady territory. Isaiah McKenzie, Greg Dortch (back), Zay Jones (ankle), Devin Duvernay, Laviska Shenault (hamstring), and the Patriots’ WRs (if Brian Hoyer starts) are the best WR3 choices.

Fantasy three-pack

Stefon Diggs, Bills @ BAL
($8,400 DK, $8,700 FD)
Stefon Diggs leads the league in receiving yards and receiving TDs. He also is only one reception behind the league leader. The weather may take away some of the deep passing in this game, but Diggs can run the middle routes with the best of them, so 12-150-2 is certainly a possibility.

A.J. Brown, Eagles vs. JAX
($7,400 DK, $8,300 FD) I am slightly concerned about Brown missing practice this week due to the birth of his child. Still, he is an elite-level talent facing an improving but still young defense in a shootout. If you have concerns about his absences, consider rolling with DeVonta Smith instead.

Davante Adams, Raiders vs. DEN
($8,300 DK, $7,900 FD) Adams cannot possibly continue this lack of production. He is still getting targeted, ranking third in that category. He also has scored in every game. The receptions and yardage will come here even against a tough defense. 

DFS Sleepers

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks @ DET
($5,900 DK, $6,900 FD) Jeff Okudah has done a remarkable job of shutting down opposing WR1s this year. The problem is that his DB running mates have more holes in their coverage than a colander. Okudah will shadow DK Metcalf this week, providing Lockett the chance to go off. He netted nine catches on 11 targets each of the last two weeks. Expect a similar line here.

Brandin Cooks, Texans vs. LAC
($5,800 DK, $6,400 FD) Cooks has been Mr. Consistent his entire career. Unfortunately, he is off to a slow start in 2022. The Chargers have allowed the fifth-most WR receptions and TDs to five different WRs already. So, Cooks will finally get in gear this week.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Mark Andrews is expensive. He is also the undisputed top option of the week. If you don’t use him, consider Pat Freiermuth or T.J. Hockenson. On DK, consider using David Njoku (knee), Robert Tonyan, or Evan Engram as a punt option, but limit your exposure to them on FD due to the price difference. If you use a punt-QB lineup with Geno Smith or Ryan Tannehill, then Austin Hooper (neck) or Will Dissly can both be on the menu, too, in stacks.

Fantasy Four-pack

Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. BUF
($7,100 DK, $8,400 FD) In a game that is expected to be the highest point total, you want all of the top scoring options active. None are safer than Andrews, who will score at least twice against this short-handed secondary.

Darren Waller, Raiders vs. DEN
($5,600 DK, $6,500 FD) Waller didn’t do as much last week as I would’ve liked with Hunter Renfrow out. Renfrow remains in the concussion protocol, so he may miss another contest here. Denver’s defense’s biggest weakness might be against this position, so Vegas should attack them with Waller here.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons vs. CLE
($5,000 DK, $6,100 FD) We finally saw the real Pitts last week. Despite the abysmal start, Pitts still finds himself eleventh in TE receiving yards. That ranking will continue to rise here in a sneaky shootout.

T.J. Hockenson, Lions vs. SEA
($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD) Only seven teams have allowed more TE receiving yards than Seattle. Meanwhile, Hockenson has started the season slowly, but he did score last week. With Amon-Ra St. Brown missing this game, Hockenson will be the red zone beneficiary and score again.

DFS Sleepers

David Njoku, Browns @ ATL
($3,700 DK, $5,700 FD) We have predicted the Njoku breakout for it seems like a decade. Little did we know it would take Jacoby freaking Brissett to unlock the huge tight end. The Falcons have allowed an average of 6.3-74 to the position. That should be considered Njoku’s floor as long as his knee doesn’t limit him.

Evan Engram, Jaguars @ PHI
($3,400 DK, $5,000 FD) Philly’s exterior secondary may be the best in football. Unfortunately, their underneath coverage has been sloppy, at best. Engram hasn’t done much this year, but Jacksonville will deploy him frequently this week as their outside receivers are swallowed up by James Bradberry and Darius Slay. Engram has familiarity with Philly from his time with New York. In six career games against them, he has topped five receptions and/or scored four times.