Tag: fantasy football PPR

With the popularity of point-per-reception leagues, fantasy footballers find themselves with different strategic decisions to ponder before draft day.

One of the most common scenarios is not necessarily a strategic move but a situational problem every gamer eventually will encounter: Not every player you will covet is ideal for PPR scoring, of course, so it forces gamers to feel like they need to chase receptions elsewhere, almost as some players do with roto scoring in baseball.

This scenario tends to be most commonly found at the running back position. Derrick Henry and Marlon Mack immediately come to mind as the types whose selection compels investment in reception-friendly counterparts. This also happens at wide receiver, where low-volume players tend to make fantasy owners look for make-up points elsewhere.

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Naturally, gamers will gravitate toward reception hogs. Michael Thomas saw more than 34 percent of New Orleans’ total targets in 2019 — the largest share of any wideout. There’s only one of him to go around, so we’ll focus on players who will come cheaper than the Thomases of the world. Everyone knows about slot receivers in New England’s system, for example. Not everyone can draft a 150-target asset, leading some gamers to look to running back for help.

Running backs

Identifying which teams utilize their running backs the most in the passing game is a fine place to start. In 2019, the top target shares at the position belonged to:

1) Los Angeles Chargers (31.7 percent)
2T) New Orleans Saints (28.6 percent)
2T) Minnesota Vikings (28.6 percent)*
4) New England Patriots (28.3 percent)
5) Chicago Bears (26.0 percent)

*The only team to leave the top five from last year was the New York Giants, falling from fourth in 2018 to 25th in 2019, in part due to losing Saquon Barkley for several games.

Of the teams that shuffled around a little last year inside of the top five, the Chargers made a change at offensive coordinator during the year, and Minnesota made one after the 2019 season. Expect little change in philosophy. Bill Lazor replaces Mark Helfrich as offensive coordinator in Chicago, which is more or less a game-planning helper role to head coach/play-caller Matt Nagy. Lazor’s 2017-18 run as Cincinnati’s OC resulted in a pair of midrange finishes for target share to RBs.

One thing to look for is an offense with suspect receivers, making the incorporation of running backs into the aerial game a must. This was quite apparent last year when examining the order of the next 10 teams.

6) Carolina Panthers (25.6 percent)*
7) Green Bay Packers (24.5 percent)
8) Las Vegas Raiders (23.8 percent)
9) Denver Broncos (23.3 percent)*
10) Jacksonville Jaguars (22.9 percent)*
11) Pittsburgh Steelers (22.7 percent)
12) Washington Redskins (22.4 percent)*
13) Cleveland Browns (22.3 percent)*
14) San Francisco 49ers (22.1 percent)
15) New York Jets (21.7 percent)

*denotes change in offensive system

• Carolina has the best pass-catching back in the business, so a change to Joe Brady — the architect of last year’s most prolific offense in college football — shouldn’t interfere with Christian McCaffrey’s dominance.
• Denver will go with Pat Shurmur as the offensive coordinator, and just two years ago his system generated a top-five target share.
• Jacksonville will roll with Jay Gruden, whose offense has produced encouraging results that have been dampened by injuries to his primary pass-catching running back (who now happens to be a Jaguar).
• Washington’s offense will be run by Scott Turner, and it’s pretty obvious what went on with McCaffrey in Carolina’s passing game during his limited stint calling plays.
• The Browns will run a West Coast design that helped generate the second-highest share (tied) of targets for backs in Minnesota last year, which figures to have similar effects given the talent in the Cleveland backfield.

The combination of necessity, system design, and personnel talent almost exclusively control what manufactures a running back-heavy share of receiving work. The following running backs should help owners up their PPR game.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns: Supremely talented as receiver, Hunt enters an offense that offered a wealth of receiving work out of the backfield in Minnesota last year. The Vikings sent 75 passes to the team’s top pair of running backs. Alexander Mattison, Minnesota’s No. 2, is not even in the same galaxy as a receiver in comparison to Hunt. There are a lot of weapons in this offense; Hunt may fall victim to losing targets because of certain matchups and No. 1 back Nick Chubb some weeks, but there’s plenty to like for PPR purposes. And a bonus is if Chubb were to get hurt, Hunt is a top-five fantasy back in an instant.

Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears: Only two backs had more targets come their way in 2019. The overall passing attack in Chicago hasn’t improved over the offseason, so look for more Cohen out of the backfield. Only Reggie Bush in 2007 caught more passes for fewer yards per reception than Cohen’s 5.77 last year. Drops plagued him, as well, but Cohen is working on improving, and the coaching staff will look to deploy him in more creative ways. Utilize this to your advantage.

James White, New England Patriots: No Tom Brady may scare off some gamers who feel White’s prowess was elevated by the methodical approach of TB12. The expected move to Jarrett Stidham actually could have a similar — and possibly increased — effect, especially since the receiving corps isn’t particularly skillful. White could better his 95 targets from a year ago.

Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles: Many casual gamers won’t even recognize the name. Scott turned it on down the stretch in 2019, mostly due to necessity, but the coaching staff took notice and will deploy him often in 2020. Scott faces competition for receiving work from Miles Sanders, however, so expectations for a monster effort must remain in check.

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Chris Thompson, Jacksonville Jaguars: Thompson’s biggest enemy always has been staying on the field, and it remains a priority concern for gaming purposes. That said, his chief advocate has been Gruden, Jacksonville’s incoming OC. Leonard Fournette caught 76 of his 100 targets (4th most) in 2019, and that is bound to regress — the passing game will be more balanced as wideouts mature, and no one on this coaching staff’s ideal scenario should be to have their bruising back see 100 receiving looks again.

Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions: D’Andre Swift’s second-round selection could relegate Johnson to a change-up role, which most likely would focus on utilizing his receiving skills. The system has been kind to producing work for sure-handed RBs throughout the years, but there is some concern this could turn into a hot-hand scenario in favor of the versatile Swift. And Johnson’s injury history is impossible to ignore.

Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins traded for the explosive former 49er in the 2020 NFL Draft, and he’ll pair with a classic two-downer in Jordan Howard. While the former Bear and Eagle isn’t a poor pass-catching back, Miami is better off utilizing his talents on the ground and giving Breida more work in the aerial department. Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s primary skill throughout the years has been the keen sense of molding his system around the team’s personnel, and it would be awfully surprising to see Breida get neglected in the passing attack.

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts: Hines went from 81 targets in 2018 to only 58 last year, which still was good for 16th among running backs. The move to Philip Rivers will help get Hines back on track, as the veteran quarterback’s arm isn’t what it used to be, and he’s more than comfortable throwing to RBs. There is concern here after Indy drafted versatile running back Jonathan Taylor, however. A young and mostly unproven cast of receiving weapons should help solidify Hines’ role in the offense.

Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ke’Shawn Vaughn was drafted and profiles as a two-down back, for the most part. The addition of Tom Brady — a checkdown master — bodes well for Jones to see increased action in the aerial game. The unretirement of Rob Gronkowski, in cooperation with two star receivers, suggests the Bucs will keep defenses guessing all day. Much like with Hunt, Jones may find himself lost in a sea of talent some weeks.

Jalen Richard, Las Vegas Raiders: This one is a little on the cloudy side. The Raiders drafted RB/WR Lynn Bowden Jr. as a do-all player, and veteran Devontae Booker was signed to bolster the depth after rusher DeAndre Washington and his 41 targets didn’t return. Richard knows the system and saw two more looks than Washington in 2019. Oakland’s receiving corps improved through the draft, too, and one has to think significant gains are in store for second-year receiver Hunter Renfrow. At any rate, Richard is worthy of attention in desperate scenarios.

Receivers and tight ends

Not every PPR league draft allows gamers to build the proper roster of explosive talent and reception-boosting balance. Therefore, all have to be mindful of where we can build adequate depth or fringe starting value catered to the scoring system. The following receivers will give you a chance to improve your point-earning potential without breaking the bank.

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets: The WR1 in New York’s offense caught 78 of his 122 targets. The utilization volume ranked as the 16th-highest figure in 2019, and he finished as a No. 2 in PPR without going over 833 yard and six touchdowns. Volume absolutely matters, and the price tag for a situation like this only increases the allure of Crowder. Despite adding two new receivers this offseason, Crowder’s role remains unchanged, and his percentage of the team’s passing work (40 percent of all 2019 NYJ WR looks), should buoy his value relative to his mostly pedestrian counting stats.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers: One of my favorite sleeper targets for 2020, the second-year wideout saw 92 targets (37th among WRs) in 2019 with a hodgepodge of quarterbacks. He offers many of the same skills that helped Antonio Brown ascend to greatness in a similar version of this offense, and the Steelers absolutely need someone to help take the pressure off of JuJu Smith-Schuster. Getting Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) back healthy is a welcomed sight, as well, and the overall maturation for Johnson in Year 2 cannot be ignored.

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders: Another second-year sleeper target, Renfrow is poised to ascend in an offense starving for reliable receivers. Henry Ruggs was drafted in Round 1 this year, and while he’s a phenomenal talent, the rookie’s game is built around speed and not necessarily possession traits. In 13 games last year, he saved the best for last, returning from a punctured lung (yikes!) to author consecutive 100-yard games and score a TD in each contest. The Clemson product is heady and dedicated — two aspects that will serve him well during this pandemic-affected offseason.

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Kelvin Harmon, Washington Redskins: Harmon’s spot on this list takes a leap of faith that we’ll see meaningful maturation from his quarterback, Dwayne Haskins, as well as from the second-year receiver himself. He’s a big-bodied target with a chain-moving skill set, and the Redskins need to incorporate someone other than Terry McLaurin into their regular designs. Washington’s talent pool is suspect, and it appears Harmon will be given every opportunity to seize the No. 2 role. McLaurin has praised Harmon this offseason, and Haskins has worked with the North Carolina State product to further develop chemistry.

Danny Amendola, Detroit Lions: The veteran journeyman’s inclusion should be viewed through the prism of late-round desperation. He was all over the map in terms of utilization while Matthew Stafford was healthy a year ago, but a closer look reveals after No. 9 went down, Amendola actually saw slightly fewer targets per game. This also coincided with injuries to T.J. Hockenson, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. This offenses has a defined role for slot receivers, and as long as the well-aged Amendola stays healthy, he’s a sneaky play for potential flex stats.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins: A year after being more or less a ghost, Gesicki emerged as the seventh-most targeted tight end in football in 2019. He developed chemistry, especially down the stretch run, with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Granted, we have no idea when we’ll see Tua Tagovailoa under center, but inexperienced quarterbacks tend to overly rely on tight ends. Gesicki was lauded coming out of Penn State in 2018 and should dramatic improvement as sophomore. Despite a new system, he’s an intriguing risk-reward decision for owners trying to make up some ground. It’s not like Miami added enough talent at wide receiver to imply Gesicki is poised to regress due to competition for touches, so trust in that aspect to help keep his role intact or better.

Tyler Eifert, Jacksonville Jaguars: Injuries are always a worry when considering Eifert for a fantasy roster. The silver lining is found in him staying on the field for 16 games last year. Now he is reunited with a former coach in Jags’ new offensive coordinator, and the system has been known to breed quality results for fantasy football purposes. As QB Gardner Minshew continues to find his way, look for more targets to head to the position, especially now that he has a tight end with serious receiving chops. Eifert isn’t likely to be an every-week starter, but finding a morsel of value at the tail end of a draft can be a viable consolation for avoiding the position early.

Blake Jarwin, Dallas Cowboys: This one really could go either way, and much of Jarwin’s role can be directly tied to what we expect from rookie receiver CeeDee Lamb. The lack of an organized, on-field offseason is bound to hurt the rookie’s progression, whereas Jarwin enters his second year in this offense. The Cowboys threw 83 passes at Jason Witten a year ago, and only nine other tight ends saw more looks in 2019. There should be some skepticism over Jarwin’s readiness to ascend, but what late-round upside buy doesn’t come with notable risk?