Tag: fantasy football average draft placement

Everyone playing fantasy football should be looking to land optimal value with each pick, but anyone with experience knows that rarely actually happens. We all have our favorites for whom we’re willing to reach, which tends to drive down the draft stock of other players. As a result, we see trends that produce undervalued fantasy football picks.

In this release, undervalued players will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts. The following players represent the best bang for your buck in relation to their average draft placement (ADP).

Be sure to check out David Dorey’s official positional sleepers and undervalued players breakdown.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and are PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. “N/A” represents not enough selections to warrant inclusion in the ADP charts.

2020 Fantasy football value buys

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford | Detroit Lions | ADP: 10:03

In 2019, before Stafford suffered a season-ending back injury that is no longer an issue, he was on pace for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns. We’ve seen him do it before, so this wasn’t totally out of left field. OC Darrell Bevell has a reputation for being a run-first play-caller, but it’s somewhat skewed since he had Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in their respective prime on his teams. Detroit’s running game has to be better this year, which means we’re unlikely to see 5k from Stafford, but he’s quite efficient and has a supporting cast to do some damage.

The value of a proven veteran entering Year 2 in an offense while so many other quarterbacks will be scrambling to play catch-up once on-field activities resume cannot go underappreciated. In 2020 drafts, waiting on your quarterback will pay off, and landing this Lion is a wise investment. He’s a viable QB1 but requires a competent counterpart on draft day. Be aware, however, gamers are starting to catch on to his value.

NEW — Jared Goff | Los Angeles Rams | ADP: 13:05

While Goff comes with significant risks, he also is a reasonably sound value as a strong backup to an elite starter, such as Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. One of the advantages of investing highly in a quarterback is not having to come back and spend up on a backup. In fact, many times I’ve advocated to entirely avoid a backup, but it depends upon the owner and situation.

For owners who opt to wait on the position, Goff is a fringe starter when the matchup is right, although it effectively requires a similar investment at the position. Volume alone will carry him most weeks, especially if the mostly untested backfield struggles. The defense is bound to take a step backward by way of personnel losses and the move to an untested, new coordinator, which also suggests more passing.

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Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans | ADP: 14:02

Of quarterbacks to start at least 10 times last year, Tannehill rated as the No. 10 fantasy quarterback on a per-game basis. He threw 22 touchdowns against only six picks, and didn’t toss an INT in seven of his appearances. Over the final six regular-season games, he really found his groove and was good for at least 26.7 fantasy points in four of those outings.

People may let the playoffs stick in their mind where Tannehill wasn’t asked to throw the ball. It’s fair, since the offense runs through Derrick Henry. The receiving corps should be better with A.J. Brown ready to ascend in Year 2, Corey Davis playing for a contract in 2021, and Adam Humphries coming back healthy. Tannehill won’t lose you games, which may be extra important in a season with a limited offseason routine and an abbreviated preseason. Trust him as a matchup-play QB2.

Philip Rivers | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 14:05

It’s easy to feel nervous about rostering an average-armed, 38-year-old quarterback whose mobility never has been his strong suit. Sometimes we have to defy conventional logic and focus on intangibles. Rivers is reunited with head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni in Indy, taking snaps behind what is arguably the best line in football.

The weaponry is young after wideout T.Y. Hilton, who is coming off of an injury-marred campaign. However, veteran tight end Jack Doyle isn’t fighting rehab or losing touches to Eric Ebron. The backfield is better than it has been in years, and Rivers will be able to rely on play-action passing. The Colts have two promising former second-round picks in wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell to complement each other in ideal ways. Rivers is not a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but there will be weeks he plays like it, and gamers need to take advantage of it with rotational QB play at a cheap price.

Running backs

NEW — Ronald Jones | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 6:05

This one is kind of tricky. Jones was publicly tabbed as the starter, despite the signing of LeSean McCoy and drafting of Ke’Shawn Vaughn. This will be an exceptionally difficult year for rookies, even at running back, although Vaughn wasn’t exactly a slam dunk prior to the McCoy signing. As for the veteran, you can be the judge of whether he has anything left in the tank, but it should be rather telling that McCoy couldn’t even make the active roster during the final weeks of the 2019 season playing under Andy Reid.

Jones suffered through an objectively awful rookie season but managed to turn it around in a respectable way as a sophomore. Year 3 should be even better with a more disciplined offense under quarterback in Tom Brady. The defense is solid enough to keep the offense in games, and Jones has an opportunity to learn from McCoy. Don’t be overly fearful of Shady’s role. Don’t give Vaughn the benefit of the doubt. Trust in Jones’ trajectory, but be prepared to jump ship if his ADP climbs closer to the 40s. Currently, he sits behind major question marks in the ADP pecking order.

Matt Breida | Miami Dolphins | ADP: 8:06

The explosive runner was dealt from the San Francisco 49ers to the Dolphins during the draft and will form a one-two punch with the more powerful Jordan Howard. First and foremost, injuries are a concern with Breida. He battled an ankle sprain on more than one occasion in the past two seasons, yet he still gutted it out and played a few times when it looked grim in the days leading up to kickoff. When healthy, he is a low-volume, high-output weapon with the ability to contribute in the passing game.

Breida began the year strong for San Fran in 2019, logging at least 14 touches in the first four games. He scored twice, racked up two 100-yard games and then struggled to be relevant after suffering a Week 9 ankle sprain during a game in which he was returning to form after a two-week lull. The logjam in the 49ers’ backfield led to him being sent to Miami. Chan Gailey is the new OC in South Beach, and he has shown capable of producing a variety of successful offensive systems. There will be a lot of inconsistency from the entire Miami offense, but Breida’s efficiency gives him a chance to exceed expectations. He’s a value buy as a No. 3 back in PPR setups.

NEW — Tarik Cohen | Chicago Bears | ADP: 8:08

The Bears, outside of Allen Robinson, don’t have a great deal of fantasy prospects to be intrigued by on draft day. WR Anthony Miller could step up, but that relies on strong quarterback play from either Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles — something most gamers shouldn’t be comfortable banking on. Cohen, even in what was probably a down year by expectations, finished 2019 with only 669 offensive yards and a trio of touchdowns. The silver lining is he landed a career-high 79 receptions, which is what keeps his fantasy football value afloat.

Those 79 receptions realistically could be eclipsed in 2020, and Cohen is worth consideration only in PPR leagues. Let’s say the quarterbacks both struggle, and no receiver steps up to take pressure off of Robinson … that really leaves Cohen as the chief recipient of targets. The arrow aims north and for RB40 in the ADP charts.

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Tony Pollard | Dallas Cowboys | ADP: 10:10

There’s no reason anyone who takes Ezekiel Elliott should come away from their draft without Pollard in tow — unless you, the speculative buyer, swoops in first. Being a handcuff aside, there’s some one-off utility for Pollard being a standalone back some weeks. He can do it all and is efficient, which is favorable for a fringe lineup gamble. The Cowboys have a boatload of cash invested into Zeke, and while this shouldn’t be taken to the extreme, it’s not outlandish to think the coaching staff could look to lessen his workload after his COVID-19 diagnosis. No back has handled it more in the last two years than Elliott’s 736 touches (Christian McCaffrey is next at 729).

Pollard amassed 562 yards on 101 touches last year, and he scored three times. Half of his production came in two games that were blowouts in Dallas’ favor — a reality that makes playing him particularly treacherous. Simply put, if Elliott were to go down with a significant injury, fantasy owners have an immediate RB1 on their hands. Pollard is worth a slight reach if you’re thin at the position.

Wide receivers

Jamison Crowder | New York Jets | ADP: 10:07

Does anyone really believe rookie Denzel Mims will be the No. 1 target for Sam Darnold following an offseason with no semblance of a conventional offseason layout, especially coming out of Baylor’s system? How about putting faith in journeyman Breshad Perriman finally living up to his potential as a former first-round pick after a handful of productive (and timely) fantasy games as a Buccaneer? If Perriman was so ready to ascend, why didn’t Tampa make an earnest effort to re-sign him? It’s not like the Jets splurged, even if it was still more than warranted ($8M) based on past production.

The point of all of that is the team’s No. 1 receiver is not coming off of the board until the 10th round in PPR leagues. That is insane. Crowder, aside from an injury-shortened season in Washington, has been quite productive out of the slot for gamers in reception-rewarding formats. New York threw to him 122 times last year, and the team actually regressed in the short term at WR in the meantime. Only 15 wideouts saw more balls come their way in ’19 … Chris Godwin had fewer looks and people are drafting him as a WR1. At any rate, Crowder finished WR26 in PPR without topping 900 yards. He’s being drafted as WR47. Even if he regresses slightly in targets, we’re still looking at a significant value buy.

NEW — Christian Kirk | Arizona Cardinals | ADP: 10:10

It’s always strange to see incongruent ADP trends within an offense. Quarterback Kyler Murray is going as a top-five passer, and DeAndre Hopkins is a top-three receiver, but Kirk is WR46? Larry Fitzgerald is WR64? There’s no tight end to speak of in this four-wide system. Running back Kenyan Drake caught 28 passes in eight games with Arizona last season. The point being, how can Murray dominate if only Nuk is forecasted to stand out?

Kirk enters Year 3 and is poised to anchor the No. 2 spot ahead of Fitz. Durability is a concern after he has failed to play more than 13 games in his two pro seasons. Kirk averaged 5.2 targets per contest in 2019, and the continuity of the system and quarterback will be a huge help in this pandemic-stricken season. There is plenty of action to go around in an offense that went three- and four-wide 81 percent of its snaps last season. He won’t be a TD machine, nor will Kirk become a guaranteed weekly starter, but the 46th receiver drafted, on average, is at least a flex consideration.

NEW — Golden Tate | New York Giants | ADP: 13:10

Currently, 57 other receivers are being drafted, on average, ahead of Tate, which is pure lunacy. Yes, he’s well-aged for a receiver, turning 32 in early August. He played 11 games for the Giants last season and averaged 14 fantasy point per contest, which tied his second-best weekly rate over 10 years as a pro. Even if someone has concerns about Daniel Jones taking a significant step forward, many gamers are sold on his maturation after a promising rookie campaign. It stands to reason Tate would be a major part of Jones enjoying a breakout second season.

New York has a new offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett, whose system has proven successful for wideouts in the past. Tate has demonstrated an ability to quickly pick up a new offense more than once. The Giants upgraded defensive personnel, which could lead to less passing, in the best-case scenario. The loss of left tackle Nate Solder is a legit concern, too. However, Tate could be force-fed targets if injuries once again take out Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. Tate is a point-per-reception WR3 at a ridiculous value.

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Parris Campbell | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: N/A

It’s understandable why fantasy owner have been standoffish toward Campbell in the early going of drafting. He was an utter disappointment as a rookie and barely was able to get onto the field. In seven games, the 2019 second-rounder managed a paltry 18 catches for 127 yards and a score, averaging only 7.1 yards per snag. He has speed for days and will have a second offseason to fully digest the playbook. Staying off of the trainer’s table is a must, however.

Campbell doesn’t come without risk, but the upside outweighs it with a late-round selection in drafts. He’s going to be at least in competition for the No. 2 looks behind T.Y. Hilton in an offense that will go from Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer to Philip Rivers under center. Even at his advanced age (38), Rivers is an upgrade. While Indy added a receiver in Round 2 this year, as well, there’s a steeper learning curve in the pandemic timeline for a rookie. Besides, Michael Pittman Jr. and Campbell are hardly the same style of player. The Ohio State product is not being drafted, on average, in the top 67 receivers, so taking a late-round gamble on him isn’t going to crater your season. Perhaps he can finally figure out how to put all of that speed to good use.

Tight ends

Mike Gesicki | Miami Dolphins | ADP: 13:03

There’s a natural trajectory developing right before our eyes, and too few early-drafting fantasy footballers aren’t keen to his potential. Gesicki’s rookie season was so disastrous it seemingly has negatively affected his fantasy football perception a great deal. Gesicki was targeted at least six times in 10 of this games last year, landing four or more balls in all but three of them. Following 16 games as a rookie without finding paydirt, Year 2 began with another lengthy scoreless string for the Penn State product. It took Gesicki 25 appearances into his NFL career to find the end zone, but once he did, five touchdowns poured in over the last six games.

The Dolphins will have a new system in 2020 under veteran play-caller Chan Gailey. His system has adapted so many times throughout the years, finding ample work for a tight end on the rise shouldn’t be a concern — especially given all of the questions among the receiving corps. There was obvious chemistry between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gesicki as 2019 closed out. It’s only a matter of time before we see Tua Tagovailoa as the starter, and inexperienced quarterbacks tend to rely on tight ends as a safety blanket. Gesicki is in an intriguing situation to vault from last year’s TE12 to somewhere in the middle of the pack among starters.

Jack Doyle | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 14:03

Doyle is two season removed from an 80-catch, 690-yard, four-score showing with the Colts. He lost most of his 2018 season to injury, playing only six games, and the statistical pace was still right in line with his breakout year. The veteran returned to play 16 contests last year and scored four times once again, but his receptions (43) and yardage (448) were down. It was the first time in his career in which Doyle averaged north of 10 yards per grab, at least. He shared time with Eric Ebron, and Indy’s entire passing game was less than impressive as T.Y. Hilton battled injuries nearly all season.

In the upcoming year, though, Ebron is gone, Philip Rivers replaces Jacoby Brissett, and the only real competition for tight end looks is Trey Burton. To Burton’s credit, he stood out in Philly with current Colts head coach Frank Reich serving as OC. Rivers has made a living throwing to the tight end position, and the Colts upgraded talent in the receiving corps over the past two drafts, which should free up Doyle to see less attention in the intermediate portion of the route tree. No one should bank on Doyle carrying your fantasy team at tight end, of course, but he’s going as the 20th tight end drafted, which is tremendous value for a possible fantasy starter.

NEW — Dallas Goedert | Philadelphia Eagles | ADP: 13:09

It’s not often a backup tight end gets an inclusion in an undervalued players list, but that’s exactly what where Goedert finds himself after a breakthrough 2019 season. He averaged 9.9 PPR points per game as a sophomore, in part because of the rash of injuries Philly faced in the receiving corps. In that context, it’s easy to understand why Goedert went from No. 8 (among tight ends with at least 14 appearances) to ADP TE16.

Zach Ertz is the top dog, but he’s getting up there in tight end years and comes with some durability questions. The Eagles have WR Alshon Jeffery looking at staying on the PUP list to open the year. Wideout Marquise Goodwin opted out of the season, and DeSean Jackson is made of glass. Third-down back Boston Scott is mostly unproven. … As one can see, there are many openings for Goedert to pick up where he left off. Consider him one of the few tight ends worthy of a selection with the intention of playing him as a flex.

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Kickers

Ka’imi Fairbairn | Houston Texans | ADP: 15:02

In 2018, Fairbairn led all kickers in fantasy football points. He regressed to PK19 last year, which came from a massive regression in field goal attempts, as well as make percentage, going from 2018’s 88.1 percent to 80.0 in 2019. The Texans made significant change on offense, bringing in running back David Johnson and trading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason. It’s more than fair to expect this offense will take a step back in explosiveness and score fewer touchdowns. The entire offensive design should be more conservative based on the personnel limitations. More stalled drives tend to result in more three-point tries. If he could get closer to the 42 attempts of 2018 — even, say, kick 35 times — we’re talking about a mid-tier No. 1 kicker.

Josh Lambo | Jacksonville Jaguars | ADP: N/A

Last year’s No. 7 fantasy kicker isn’t getting drafted, on average, in the top 16 spots. He posted 7.4 fantasy points per game in 2019, marking the third time in his past four seasons to score at least than much. Lambo’s fantasy success was fueled by a personal-best 34 field goal attempts and and insane 97.1 percent conversation rate. There will be regression in the accuracy, because that’s just not sustainable over time. To counter it, look for an increase from 20 extra point attempts. This offense figures to be more prolific in the TD column with a proven play-caller in Jay Gruden, the maturation of QB Gardner Minshew, and upgrades in the offensive personnel.

Defense/special teams

Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: N/A

The Colts added DeForest Buckner to shore up the front line, especially against the run. He adds a significant help in reaching the quarterback, too, having recorded 19.5 sacks in the last two years combined. The linebacking corps returns intact and healthy, which will be the key to steering this defense’s fantasy fortunes one way or the other. In the secondary, veterans T.J. Carrie (Browns) and Xavier Rhodes (Vikings) come over to bolster a pair of young safeties. Rhodes endured a rocky 2019 but shouldn’t be totally written off yet. Second-year corner Rock Ya-Sin figures to only be better. The schedule is quite reasonable, and this division has undergone significant enough changes to suggest there’s some upside in facing Jacksonville (young QB, new offense) and Houston (major RB and WR moves) twice apiece.

New Orleans Saints | Undervalued | ADP: N/A

In 2019, the Saints were fantasy’s fifth-best defensive unit for points scored. The value differential here is only four spots in relation to ADP, sot it’s not like this unit will be some kind of crazy steal. There’s a lot to be said for continuity in both personnel and coaching during the year of the pandemic, so don’t short-change the notion of stability. The pass rush should remain strong, and the secondary improved. The NFL draft brought in pass-rushing specialist Zack Baun. Offensive consistency also is an important factor, too, and it shouldn’t be understated. Don’t be suckered into overvaluing the universally preferred teams, like New England, Chicago and Buffalo, while passing on a smarter option in New Orleans.