Fantasy football ADP positional evaluations

A snapshot of fantasy football ADP reactions.

Fantasy football average draft position (ADP) is a handy tool to get a feel for where certain players are going relative to their positional peers. It’s not particularly useful when compiled regardless of position, because of too many variables to accurately judge the influences from each drafter.

Cautionary advice: ADP data is merely a guideline and should not be utilized as the be-all, end-all factor in knowing when to draft players. A great example is found in quarterback valuation. Inexperienced gamers tend to greatly overvalue the significance of the position in relation to other positions, largely because of the nature of quarterback being the face of the NFL, which leads to inflated recognition.

In this analysis, viewers get a snapshot view of my impressions from the latest ADP data.

Note: All ADP figures below are from FantasyFootballCalculator.com and utilize PPR scoring.

Quarterbacks

Rk
Pick
Name
Pos
Team
Bye
ADP reaction
Notes
1
2.09
Pat Mahomes
QB
KC
12
2
4.01
Josh Allen
QB
BUF
7
3
4.10
Kyler Murray
QB
ARI
12
4
5.03
Dak Prescott
QB
DAL
7
5
5.05
Lamar Jackson
QB
BAL
8
6
6.01
Justin Herbert
QB
LAC
7
Slightly high
New system could create early struggles
7
6.06
Russell Wilson
QB
SEA
9
8
6.10
Aaron Rodgers
QB
GB
13
Volatile
Current dispute with team has future in doubt
9
7.05
Tom Brady
QB
TB
9
10
8.03
Jalen Hurts
QB
PHI
14
Optimistic
New offensive system, inexperienced WRs
11
8.04
Matthew Stafford
QB
LAR
11
12
8.12
Joe Burrow
QB
CIN
10
Value buy
Knee is healthy, weapons & OL upgraded
13
9.08
Trevor Lawrence
QB
JAX
7
14
9.09
Ryan Tannehill
QB
TEN
13
Rising
Addition of Julio Jones has QB’s stock rising
15
9.10
Matt Ryan
QB
ATL
6
Falling
Loss of Julio Jones devaluing stock
16
10.08
Deshaun Watson
QB
HOU
10
Volatile
Off-field issues, plus demand for trade has him in limbo
17
12.03
Kirk Cousins
QB
MIN
7
18
12.03
Baker Mayfield
QB
CLE
13
19
12.09
Carson Wentz
QB
IND
14
Volatile
Has talent but needs weapons to step up
20
13.09
Taysom Hill
QB
NO
6
Volatile
Battling for QB1 job
21
13.10
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
MIA
14
Value buy
Drastic upgrade of targets, full offseason to master playbook
22
14.01
Cam Newton
QB
NE
14
Volatile
Major durability concerns, first-round rookie looming
23
14.04
Jameis Winston
QB
NO
6
Volatile
Battling for QB1 job; stock will skyrocket if named starter
24
14.04
Trey Lance
QB
SF
6
Volatile
Vying for starting job
25
14.05
Ryan Fitzpatrick
QB
WAS
9
Value buy
Ample weaponry, little competition for QB1 job
26
14.05
Sam Darnold
QB
CAR
13
27
14.06
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
PIT
7
Value buy
Ridiculously low in relation to weapons available
28
14.07
Justin Fields
QB
CHI
10
29
14.07
Daniel Jones
QB
NYG
10
Value buy
Risky as anyone, but Year 2 in offense, more weapons
30
14.08
Derek Carr
QB
LV
8
Undervalued
Safe QB2 who can be had in the last round of drafts

[lawrence-related id=458784,458768]

Running backs

Rk
Pick
Name
Pos
Team
Bye
ADP reaction
Notes
1
1.01
Christian McCaffrey
RB
CAR
13
2
1.03
Dalvin Cook
RB
MIN
7
3
1.04
Alvin Kamara
RB
NO
6
4
1.04
Derrick Henry
RB
TEN
13
Mild risk
Elevated injury concerns, fewer touches likely
5
1.04
Saquon Barkley
RB
NYG
10
Mild risk
Possibly light workload early in season after 2020 ACL tear
6
1.06
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
DAL
7
7
1.07
Nick Chubb
RB
CLE
13
8
1.08
Jonathan Taylor
RB
IND
14
Value
Quality value with top-3 potential behind strong OL
9
1.09
Austin Ekeler
RB
LAC
7
Optimistic
Attainable placement but requires a full slate & 2019 aerial volume
10
1.12
Aaron Jones
RB
GB
13
11
2.02
Cam Akers
RB
LAR
11
12
2.05
Antonio Gibson
RB
WAS
9
13
2.07
Joe Mixon
RB
CIN
10
Risk-reward
Interesting risk-reward ratio with expected increase in touches, but an injury risk
14
2.09
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB
KC
12
15
3.02
Najee Harris
RB
PIT
7
16
3.03
J.K. Dobbins
RB
BAL
8
Value
Factors for serious breakout as a possible top-8 back
17
3.07
D’Andre Swift
RB
DET
9
18
3.08
Miles Sanders
RB
PHI
14
Risk
Injury history, new offense, inexperience QB & WRs; immense individual talent
19
3.09
Josh Jacobs
RB
LV
8
Slightly overvalued
Injury risk, lower volume after Kenyan Drake addition; too dependent on TDs
20
3.10
Chris Carson
RB
SEA
9
21
3.12
David Montgomery
RB
CHI
10
22
4.06
James Robinson
RB
JAX
7
Overvalued
Rookie standout thrived on volume that will be lost to rookie Travis Etienne
23
4.07
Kareem Hunt
RB
CLE
13
24
4.09
Myles Gaskin
RB
MIA
14
25
4.11
Raheem Mostert
RB
SF
6
Overvalued
Injury-prone with rookie Trey Sermon lurking and capable of overtaking
26
5.07
Mike Davis
RB
ATL
6
Value
Could catch 75 passes in this Julio Jones-less offense
27
5.07
Melvin Gordon
RB
DEN
11
28
6.02
Chase Edmonds
RB
ARI
12
29
6.03
Travis Etienne
RB
JAX
7
30
6.11
Ronald Jones II
RB
TB
9
Overvalued
Too many mouths to feed in crowded backfield & offense
31
7.01
Leonard Fournette
RB
TB
9
Overvalued
Will lose much value as a receiver after Gio Bernard’s addition
32
7.04
Javonte Williams
RB
DEN
11
33
7.04
Damien Harris
RB
NE
14
34
7.06
David Johnson
RB
HOU
10
Overvalued
Crowded backfield, serious issues at QB and WR
35
7.07
Kene Nwangwu
RB
MIN
7
Overvalued
Flying up boards on speculation; Dalvin Cook is the workhorse, Alexander Mattison in his way
36
7.10
James Conner
RB
ARI
12
Risk-reward
Injury concerns up the wazoo; Chase Edmonds ready to ascend; TD-dependent
37
8.04
Kenyan Drake
RB
LV
8
38
8.08
J.D. McKissic
RB
WAS
9
Value buy
PPR powerhouse coming at a discount
39
8.11
A.J. Dillon
RB
GB
13
40
9.02
Devin Singletary
RB
BUF
7
41
9.05
Nyheim Hines
RB
IND
14
Value
Fair price for a proven PPR asset
42
9.05
Zack Moss
RB
BUF
7
43
9.07
Gus Edwards
RB
BAL
8
44
9.09
Jeffery Wilson
RB
SF
6
Falling
Could miss time into regular season after offseason surgery
45
10.02
Trey Sermon
RB
SF
6
Undervalued
Should continue to rise but has legitimate RB1 talent and safe RB2 potential
46
10.03
Latavius Murray
RB
NO
6
47
10.04
Tony Pollard
RB
DAL
7
48
10.06
Jamaal Williams
RB
DET
9
Value
An injury away from seeing RB1 volume behind a strong line
49
10.11
Phillip Lindsay
RB
HOU
10
50
11.02
Alexander Mattison
RB
MIN
7
51
11.04
Tarik Cohen
RB
CHI
10
52
11.08
Darrell Henderson
RB
LAR
11
53
12.01
Rashaad Penny
RB
SEA
9
54
12.05
Michael Carter
RB
NYJ
6
Value
Will compete for starting job and is more versatile than many recognize
55
12.07
Marlon Mack
RB
IND
14
56
12.08
James White
RB
NE
14
57
13.03
Tevin Coleman
RB
NYJ
6
58
13.04
Kenneth Gainwell
RB
PHI
14
59
13.10
Malcolm Brown
RB
MIA
14
60
13.11
Giovani Bernard
RB
TB
9
61
14.01
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
NE
14
62
14.02
Justin Jackson
RB
LAC
7
63
14.04
Damien Williams
RB
CHI
10
Value
Low-risk, speculative investment; Tarik Cohen returning from ACL
64
14.04
Darrel Williams
RB
KC
12
65
14.04
Chuba Hubbard
RB
CAR
13
Value buy
One McCaffrey injury away from elite production
66
14.05
Wayne Gallman
RB
SF
6
67
14.06
Salvon Ahmed
RB
MIA
14
68
14.06
Samaje Perine
RB
CIN
10
69
14.08
Mark Ingram
RB
HOU
10
70
14.09
Jerick McKinnon
RB
KC
12
71
14.09
Devontae Booker
RB
NYG
10
72
14.10
Benny Snell Jr.
RB
PIT
7
73
14.10
Kerryon Johnson
RB
PHI
14
74
14.11
Sony Michel
RB
NE
14
75
14.12
Anthony McFarland Jr.
RB
PIT
7
76
15.01
Boston Scott
RB
PHI
14
Value buy
Late-round flier with weekly flex potential
77
15.02
Matt Breida
RB
BUF
7
78
15.05
Donta Foreman
RB
TEN
13

Wide receivers

Rk
Pick
Name
Pos
Team
Bye
ADP reaction
Notes
1
1.10
Tyreek Hill
WR
KC
12
2
2.01
Davante Adams
WR
GB
13
Volatile
Overvalued placement if Aaron Rodgers gets his way and leaves
3
2.02
Stefon Diggs
WR
BUF
7
4
2.04
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
ARI
12
5
2.06
Calvin Ridley
WR
ATL
6
6
2.08
D.K. Metcalf
WR
SEA
9
7
2.10
A.J. Brown
WR
TEN
13
8
3.01
Keenan Allen
WR
LAC
7
9
3.02
Justin Jefferson
WR
MIN
7
10
3.04
Michael Thomas
WR
NO
6
Value buy
Weird to say he’s a value at WR10, but if Jameis Winston starts, Thomas returns to elite status
11
3.09
Allen Robinson
WR
CHI
10
Volatile
Talent is there, but does he have chemistry with Andy Dalton or rookie QB?
12
3.10
Terry McLaurin
WR
WAS
9
13
4.02
Julio Jones
WR
TEN
13
14
4.04
Mike Evans
WR
TB
9
15
4.05
Amari Cooper
WR
DAL
7
16
4.06
CeeDee Lamb
WR
DAL
7
17
4.07
Robert Woods
WR
LAR
11
18
4.11
Chris Godwin
WR
TB
9
19
5.01
Adam Thielen
WR
MIN
7
Slightly overvalued
Mild injury risk; losing ground to Justin Jefferson; too reliant on TDs in 2020
20
5.02
Cooper Kupp
WR
LAR
11
21
5.07
Kenny Golladay
WR
NYG
10
Volatile
Injury history, Daniel Jones question marks, new offense for Golladay
22
5.09
Diontae Johnson
WR
PIT
7
23
5.10
Tyler Lockett
WR
SEA
9
24
6.01
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
SF
6
25
6.04
Odell Beckham Jr
WR
CLE
13
Overvalued
Coming off ACL tear; lacks obvious chemistry with Baker Mayfield; run-heavy offense
26
6.04
D.J. Moore
WR
CAR
13
27
6.06
Ja’Marr Chase
WR
CIN
10
Slightly optimistic
Dependent upon shaking off rust after sitting out 2020; needs to learn NFL system
28
6.11
Tee Higgins
WR
CIN
10
29
7.01
D.J. Chark
WR
JAX
7
Volatile
No clue if he has chemistry with Trevor Lawrence; added receiving talent to steal looks
30
7.02
Chase Claypool
WR
PIT
7
31
7.04
DeVonta Smith
WR
PHI
14
Volatile
Talented rookie but needs to acclimate to NFL with relatively inexperienced QB
32
7.06
Courtland Sutton
WR
DEN
11
Value buy
Regardless of QB situation, Sutton is a WR1 talent & on track after ACL tear
33
7.10
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
PIT
7
34
8.01
Tyler Boyd
WR
CIN
10
35
8.03
Deebo Samuel
WR
SF
6
36
8.04
Will Fuller
WR
MIA
14
Volatile
Facing early-season suspension, unreal injury history, new QB & system
37
8.05
Robby Anderson
WR
CAR
13
38
8.09
Jerry Jeudy
WR
DEN
11
39
8.12
Brandin Cooks
WR
HOU
10
Volatile
Will drastically out-play ADP if Deshaun Watson is the full-season starter
40
9.03
Jarvis Landry
WR
CLE
13
Value buy
Safe PPR addition as WR3; stock depressed after fighting hip injury throughout 2020
41
9.05
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR
IND
14
Value buy
Potential for top-24 finish in PPR based on volume, but remains plenty risky
42
9.11
Antonio Brown
WR
TB
9
43
10.01
Marquise Brown
WR
BAL
8
Value buy
Will be inconsistent by nature of his style, but serious value opportunity
44
10.02
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
JAX
7
Value buy
Offseason standout thus far; offense will need to pass to overcome Jags’ defense
45
10.04
DeVante Parker
WR
MIA
14
Value buy
Likely WR1 with new WRs to take away some pressure; QB maturation expected
46
10.06
Curtis Samuel
WR
WAS
9
Value buy
PPR value but some risk; knows system and has a gunslinger QB
47
11.01
Cole Beasley
WR
BUF
7
48
11.01
Jaylen Waddle
WR
MIA
14
Overvalued
Profiles as erratic rookie in an offense with several viable targets; star power after 2021, though
49
11.03
Henry Ruggs III
WR
LV
8
Value buy
Having strong offseason and poised to live up to 2020 draft potential
50
11.06
Corey Davis
WR
NYJ
6
51
11.11
T.Y. Hilton
WR
IND
14
52
11.12
Michael Gallup
WR
DAL
7
53
12.04
Mike Williams
WR
LAC
7
54
12.09
Marvin Jones
WR
JAX
7
55
12.11
Jamison Crowder
WR
NYJ
6
56
13.04
Mecole Hardman
WR
KC
12
57
13.04
Darnell Mooney
WR
CHI
10
Value buy
WR2 in what could be a stronger passing game; but some risk due to looming rookie QB
58
13.06
Rashod Bateman
WR
BAL
8
Rising
Standing out so far in camp and has an opportunity to seize WR1 role
59
13.08
Van Jefferson
WR
LAR
11
60
14.03
Gabriel Davis
WR
BUF
7
61
14.04
Nelson Agholor
WR
NE
14
62
14.04
Sterling Shepard
WR
NYG
10
63
14.05
Elijah Moore
WR
NYJ
6
64
14.05
Russell Gage
WR
ATL
6
Value buy
Expected to vie for WR2 role in an offense that should make him a weekly flex contender
65
14.07
Parris Campbell
WR
IND
14
66
14.08
Denzel Mims
WR
NYJ
6
67
14.08
John Brown
WR
LV
8
Value buy
Veteran of an inexperienced passing game; could surprise, especially if Henry Ruggs struggles again
68
14.09
DeSean Jackson
WR
LAR
11
69
14.09
Jalen Reagor
WR
PHI
14
70
14.11
A.J. Green
WR
ARI
12
71
14.11
Allen Lazard
WR
GB
13
72
14.12
Emmanuel Sanders
WR
BUF
7
73
15.01
Sammy Watkins
WR
BAL
8
74
15.03
Christian Kirk
WR
ARI
12
75
15.04
Darius Slayton
WR
NYG
10
76
15.04
Tre’Quan Smith
WR
NO
6
77
15.06
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
DET
9
Undervalued
Opportunity to be DET’s WR1 and could become a PPR option via volume
78
15.07
Josh Reynolds
WR
TEN
13

Tight ends

Rk
Pick
Name
Pos
Team
Bye
ADP reaction
Notes
1
1.08
Travis Kelce
TE
KC
12
2
2.11
Darren Waller
TE
LV
8
3
3.01
George Kittle
TE
SF
6
4
5.03
Mark Andrews
TE
BAL
8
5
5.04
Kyle Pitts
TE
ATL
6
Optimistic
Rookie TEs rarely excel in fantasy, but there’s a real opportunity to live up to the hype
6
6.01
T.J. Hockenson
TE
DET
9
7
7.04
Logan Thomas
TE
WAS
9
Overvalued
Career year for QB-turned-TE in 2020; Curtis Samuel will eat into volume, which is what carried Thomas
8
7.10
Noah Fant
TE
DEN
11
9
8.04
Hunter Henry
TE
NE
14
Optimistic
Should see ample targets, although injury history & QB questions create unease over ADP
10
8.07
Dallas Goedert
TE
PHI
14
Volatile
Has the potential for a top-5 showing if TE Zach Ertz is traded
11
9.07
Evan Engram
TE
NYG
10
12
9.11
Rob Gronkowski
TE
TB
9
13
12.02
Jonnu Smith
TE
NE
14
14
12.03
Robert Tonyan Jr.
TE
GB
13
Volatile
TD-dependent 2020 standout faces uncertainty with Aaron Rodgers saga
15
13.01
Mike Gesicki
TE
MIA
14
Volatile
New receivers should eat into his target share; historically, this offense has seldom used its TEs
16
13.04
Tyler Higbee
TE
LAR
11
17
13.07
Mo Alie-Cox
TE
IND
14
Optimistic
Vying for TE1 role; daylight for serious role if WR cast fails to produce
18
13.12
Adam Trautman
TE
NO
6
Volatile
Tremendous upside if Jameis Winston starts at QB
19
14.01
Irv Smith Jr.
TE
MIN
7
20
14.03
Jared Cook
TE
LAC
7
Value buy
Age working against him, yet sizeable role is available in a familiar offense
21
14.04
Hayden Hurst
TE
ATL
6
22
14.04
Gerald Everett
TE
SEA
9
Value buy
Late-round flier but will need a helping hand for consistent utility
23
14.05
Zach Ertz
TE
PHI
14
Value buy
Volatile, too, but it’s only a matter of time before his situation is resolved
24
14.07
Blake Jarwin
TE
DAL
7
25
14.09
Cole Kmet
TE
CHI
10
26
15.02
Anthony Firkser
TE
TEN
13
Value buy
There’s a role for weekly lineup consideration in TE-friendly system

[lawrence-related id=459033]