Tag: Fantasy Baseball Team

Fantasy baseball sleepers: Target these hidden stolen base gems

Analyzing five fantasy baseball sleepers who can help you win your 2020 fantasy baseball league’s stolen-base category.

The MLB and fantasy baseball season will be upon soon, and now is the time to hone in on targets to bolster your fantasy baseball lineup. Stolen bases have dropped by nearly 20% since 2014, and 20-steal producers have become more rare … and more of a commodity. Below, we investigate some hidden stolen-base gems, players who can produce in the category but at the right price point or at a value slot in a fantasy baseball draft.

Fantasy baseball sleepers

Jon Berti, SS-OF-3B, Miami Marlins

Berti logged an impressive late-bloomer rookie season in 2019. The now-30-year-old can play all over the diamond, and that led to 256 at-bats a year ago. Berti clocked a .348 on-base percentage and 17 stolen bases, and he was up with the big club from July 31 to the end of the season.

A thief of 270 bags in nine Minor League seasons, Berti’s straight-line sprint speed measured as 13th-fastest in the 2019 MLB season. The .348 OBP would appear ripe for regression, but the 2020 season brings a 26th roster spots for MLB clubs and that much more opportunity for a diverse talent.

Garrett Hampson, 2B-OF, Colorado Rockies

Hampson was a negative-WAR, .247 batter in his age-25 rookie season in 2019. What’s intriguing is his elite speed and the numbers he cobbled together in the second half last season. Hampson logged a .284/.348/.462 (batting/on-base/slugging) slash line in 188 second-half plate appearances.

The opportunities led to 11 stolen bases in 12 attempts. Only three players posted faster StatCast times than Hampson’s 30.1 feet per second. The upside here is upwards of 25 steals.

Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Cleveland Indians

Hernandez comes over from Philadelphia as a free agent. A durable sort with previous OBP norms near .360, the 29-year-old scuffled his way to a .333 OBP (and nine SB) in 2019.

A return to a double-digit walk rate (which Hernandez had each season from 2016-18) would be a boon to fantasy baseball drafters looking for more thefts. The speedy second sacker logged a 7% walk rate in 2019. A different philosophy in Cleveland is likely, and so is a potential doubling of last year’s stolen base figure.

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Nick Madrigal, 2B, Chicago White Sox

Madrigal will likely record his first steals of 2020 with the Charlotte Knights. The crazy-fast Pale Hose prospect swiped 35 bases in 120 MiLB games last year. (In those 120 games, Madrigal walked 44 times while striking out just 16 times.)

The 23-year-old might not be a prospect we see until after Derby Day, but he profiles as a very interesting fantasy baseball asset. He could arrive in May and still end up 20-plus steals this season.

Also see:

Trent Grisham, OF, San Diego Padres

Another 23-year-old prospect, Grisham registered a .328 OBP (and one stolen base) in 51 games with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2019. After being traded for, he’s the heir apparent for the Padres’ center field job this season.

Grisham’s skills have upside across the board, and for a highly athletic player whose StatCast speed numbers put him in very good company, stolen base numbers can certainly be in the mix. He had 25 steals in 55 games as an 18-year-old in 2015, and stole 38 in 133 games in advanced A-ball two years later. Grisham is having a big spring for the Padres. He may well be worth having in a few categories, one of them being stolen bases.

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2020 Fantasy Baseball Busts: 5 Players to Avoid on Draft Day

Highlighting five fantasy baseball bust candidates who should be avoided at their average draft position (ADP).

We recently looked at the top fantasy baseball sleepers for the 2020 MLB season and now focus on five fantasy baseball bust candidates you’ll need to avoid during your fantasy baseball draft, at least at their current average draft position (ADP) cost.

The term “bust” isn’t always meant for players who’ll have downright awful seasons. Here, it refers to players who won’t meet your fantasy baseball expectations based on where they’re being drafted and who they’re being drafted above.

Also see: 2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

2020 Fantasy baseball busts

Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals

(Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff – USA TODAY Sports)

Soler broke out in 2019 to more than double in his career total in homers with 48 while playing all 162 games. He hit just nine homers in 61 games with the Royals in 2018.

He has a career batting average of .255, though he has .265 each of the last two seasons, and his 26.2% strikeout rate last season was worse than all but 16 other qualified hitters. He has next to no speed to offer, and he has little protection while hitting in the middle of a rebuilding Royals club.

DJ LeMahieu, INF, New York Yankees

(Photo Credit: Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports)

LeMahieu, at age 31, hit more home runs in his first season with the Yankees than in he did in any of six full seasons with the Colorado Rockies. In fact, his 26 home runs last season were more than he hit in total in 2017 and 2018. This despite a move to Yankee Stadium from Coors Field.

The veteran infield also noticed a spike in his batting average and on-base percentage, despite a pedestrian 7.0% walk rate. He hasn’t been able to steal double-digit bases since 2016, and he’s one of several Yankees hitters who can be expected to see a dip in the runs and RBI totals this year after a record-setting 2019 for the team.

WIN YOUR FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE

Sign up for BaseballHQ.com‘s award-winning, insider services and dominate. Sign up now; use the code “PREP20” at checkout to take 25% OFF a Draft Prep subscription.

Mallex Smith, OF, Seattle Mariners

(Photo Credit: David Banks – USA TODAY Sports)

Smith led baseball with 46 stolen bases last season, and he was thrown out just nine times. His .227 batting average was worse than anyone else with at least 12 SBs and he struck out in 24.9% of plate appearances with just a 7.4% walk rate. He has just 13 career home runs in 428 games and is purely a one-category player.

Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates

(Photo Credit: Cody Glenn – USA TODAY Sports)

Similarly to Soler, Bell enjoyed a career-best power surge last season. He has the better-rounded game, but as the only hitter to fear in a soft Pirates lineup, he’s unlikely to see enough pitches to hit, and there’ll be no one to drive him home once he walks.

He ranked ninth in baseball in RBI last season, but he’ll have fewer men on base in 2020, as well.

Josh Hader, RP, Milwaukee Brewers

(Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – USA TODAY Sports)

Hader is this year’s prime example of relievers being overvalued in fantasy baseball. He ranked third in baseball in saves last season while pitching to a 2.62 ERA. He ranked first with 16.41 strikeouts per nine innings and his 75 2/3 innings were more than anyone else in the top 10 in the category, but he’s being drafted an average of 18 spots ahead of the next highest RP.

He’s also the closer for a Brewers team expected to take at least a small step backward this season in the competitive NL Central. Expect fewer saves this season and not enough strikeouts to justify picking Hader above the likes of Charlie Morton, Zach Greinke, Lucas Giolito, Chris Paddack and other top-tier starters.

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire.

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