We recently looked at the top fantasy baseball sleepers for the 2020 MLB season and now focus on five fantasy baseball bust candidates you’ll need to avoid during your fantasy baseball draft, at least at their current average draft position (ADP) cost.
The term “bust” isn’t always meant for players who’ll have downright awful seasons. Here, it refers to players who won’t meet your fantasy baseball expectations based on where they’re being drafted and who they’re being drafted above.
Also see: 2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
2020 Fantasy baseball busts
Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals
Soler broke out in 2019 to more than double in his career total in homers with 48 while playing all 162 games. He hit just nine homers in 61 games with the Royals in 2018.
He has a career batting average of .255, though he has .265 each of the last two seasons, and his 26.2% strikeout rate last season was worse than all but 16 other qualified hitters. He has next to no speed to offer, and he has little protection while hitting in the middle of a rebuilding Royals club.
DJ LeMahieu, INF, New York Yankees
LeMahieu, at age 31, hit more home runs in his first season with the Yankees than in he did in any of six full seasons with the Colorado Rockies. In fact, his 26 home runs last season were more than he hit in total in 2017 and 2018. This despite a move to Yankee Stadium from Coors Field.
The veteran infield also noticed a spike in his batting average and on-base percentage, despite a pedestrian 7.0% walk rate. He hasn’t been able to steal double-digit bases since 2016, and he’s one of several Yankees hitters who can be expected to see a dip in the runs and RBI totals this year after a record-setting 2019 for the team.
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Mallex Smith, OF, Seattle Mariners
Smith led baseball with 46 stolen bases last season, and he was thrown out just nine times. His .227 batting average was worse than anyone else with at least 12 SBs and he struck out in 24.9% of plate appearances with just a 7.4% walk rate. He has just 13 career home runs in 428 games and is purely a one-category player.
Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Similarly to Soler, Bell enjoyed a career-best power surge last season. He has the better-rounded game, but as the only hitter to fear in a soft Pirates lineup, he’s unlikely to see enough pitches to hit, and there’ll be no one to drive him home once he walks.
He ranked ninth in baseball in RBI last season, but he’ll have fewer men on base in 2020, as well.
Josh Hader, RP, Milwaukee Brewers
Hader is this year’s prime example of relievers being overvalued in fantasy baseball. He ranked third in baseball in saves last season while pitching to a 2.62 ERA. He ranked first with 16.41 strikeouts per nine innings and his 75 2/3 innings were more than anyone else in the top 10 in the category, but he’s being drafted an average of 18 spots ahead of the next highest RP.
He’s also the closer for a Brewers team expected to take at least a small step backward this season in the competitive NL Central. Expect fewer saves this season and not enough strikeouts to justify picking Hader above the likes of Charlie Morton, Zach Greinke, Lucas Giolito, Chris Paddack and other top-tier starters.
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