Tag: FanBall

In redraft leagues, this is the first week of the playoffs. In most years, we see a boost in DFS play this week as teams who have been eliminated from the money chase begin to peruse alternate money-raising activities. Still, this is 2020, and we don’t know if these same casual players will just bounce completely once their season ends this year. Perhaps a real test will be in the next two weeks as basketball starts back up.

We also are finally past all of the byes, so the main slate player pool will expand some. As of now, we don’t have any rescheduled games. This means that the main slate will have 26 of the 32 teams in it. A bigger player pool plus more potential entrants equal a harder to win GPP. So don’t get distraught if you have a rough week in tournament play. Take this opportunity this week to smash cash games harder. Don’t ignore tournament play, but don’t overexpose yourself to it. Also, remember that hitting the “good chalk” is even more important in this scenario. We should have a better idea by Week 15 of how the last couple of weeks will shake out.

 

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

Once again we get Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Baltimore in the Primetime slate. This week, these three teams are joined by the upstart Cleveland Browns. Ben Roethlisberger has looked shaky in his last two outings against a pair of very good pass defenses. Buffalo is not as strong against the pass as Washington or Baltimore, but they aren’t a cakewalk either. As a match to the defense, Ben is probably the QB2 on this slate. I just don’t know if I trust him over Josh Allen here. Speaking of Allen, he would get the QB3 slot if we just looked at the opposition’s defense. Pittsburgh’s pass defense is easily the toughest on this slate, but Allen can get it done on the ground as well and Pittsburgh has been losing ground in their ground defense.

By Sunday Night, James Conner should finally be ready to return from his COVID diagnosis. It isn’t as if Pittsburgh was giving him an abundance of carries anyway. Perhaps, Conner being gone is part of the offensive struggles that Pittsburgh has seen the last two weeks. Still, if they aren’t going to have him on the field up 20 in the fourth quarter, then why bother having him on the field at all? Buffalo is easily the worst run defense on this slate, but I still doubt I will be in on him as more than a FLEX play. Benny Snell would have even lesser appeal if Conner still isn’t back from COVID’s clutches. As for Buffalo, Zack Moss got benched last Monday. He went from being a split-carry option to a no-carry option instantly. Apparently, Sean McDermott is channeling his inner Bruce Arians. If we knew that Moss would stay in the doghouse, I’d be all over Devin Singletary at a reduced price versus the other starting RBs on this slate. He is useful in both the run and pass games, making him a decent bargain here. That said, neither Moss nor Singletary is a TD-threat since Josh Allen either takes it in himself or Buffalo throws a 1-yard pass to their tight end du jour. Even if Moss is allowed to play, I am still gonna consider Singletary as a FLEX. Moss, however, is all-out for me.

The Pittsburgh wheel-of-wide receivers landed on Diontae Johnson and James Washington last week. This meant Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster were left out in the cold once again. Diontae and JuJu are receiving the lions’ share of the targets, so they are arguably the safest plays in this quartet. It will be interesting to see which one Tre’Davious White chooses to lockdown. Despite his presence, opposing WR1s have been successful recently against Buffalo. I think he shadows Johnson, which downgrades him significantly. These other WR1s would’ve likely have seen a larger dip in production if they had other weapons to safely siphon targets away from the #1. Ben has two/three other very good options to look at when he sees who is lined up opposite White. Looking quickly at the game logs against them, slot WRs have destroyed Buffalo this year. This screams to me that JuJu is set to explode this week. He will likely be my WR1 on this slate. Claypool will be my second choice from this game, and he is a worthy WR2 option. Despite the ridiculous target share coming in, Diontae is my third-choice from this group. Washington is also an outside guy, but there isn’t much chance he gets any of White’s attention in four and five-wide sets. He is a cheap WR3 option and a great Showdown slate play. Stefon Diggs would be the WR1 overall on this slate if he was facing any team other than the Steelers. We saw last week what Pittsburgh did to Terry McLaurin and he and Diggs are very comparable. I frankly don’t want anything to do with him here. There are at least four (probably five) other receivers on this slate that I like better. Much like Buffalo’s defense, Pittsburgh’s weak point is against slot receivers. For Buffalo that is 100%  Cole Beasley territory. He is the best WR2 option this week, and it isn’t close. He is one of the four/five I prefer to Diggs this week. Gabriel Davis has been an above-average replacement for John Brown, but against a tough pass defense, he is no better than a FLEX play here.

Eric Ebron is quickly becoming a valuable fourth option in the passing game for Pittsburgh. Considering that Pittsburgh is using a spread offense on EVERY play, you would think his numbers might be muted. They aren’t. Pittsburgh is actually running him in those spread sets. Buffalo has really struggled against opposing TEs this year, so feel free to use him as your TE2 on this slate. Choosing the Buffalo TE that is going to score each week is impossible. All we know is that one of them will score. Pittsburgh just got assassinated by Logan Thomas last week, but none of the Buffalo TEs are on that talent spectrum. Dawson Knox has been the one used the most the last four weeks and I’d argue he is the most talented of their TE room. He also has TDs in two straight games. So if you are in a money pickle, you could use him. Just know that this play is purely a punt. I don’t mind either of these teams as your defense this week, but Baltimore is the more obvious play.

 

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

With as many bad outings as he has had recently, Lamar Jackson getting the QB1 rating on a slate is a bit of a surprise. Cleveland is certainly easier to throw against than run against, but they can be beaten both ways. It helps that Jackson has three passing TDs in each of his last three games against Cleveland. Baker Mayfield went ham last week against Tennessee. That won’t happen this week. In five career games against Baltimore, Mayfield has thrown for eight touchdowns. He does have a couple of 300-yard games, but a lot of that has been in garbage time. Frankly, I don’t see any non-contrarian reason to use him here.

Now that JK Dobbins has passed the COVID protocols, he is the clear RB1 for Baltimore. He should also be the RB2 on this slate. Cleveland is pretty good against the run, but so are two of the other three teams on this slate. The Browns do give up a few RB rushing scores, so a TD isn’t out of the question. Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have been relegated to backup duty and neither deserves a play in an otherwise crappy RB-matchup. Nick Chubb for Cleveland gets the RB1 slot here. Baltimore is also elite against the run, but Chubb is far-and-away the most-talented back on this docket. Kareem Hunt is clearly second-fiddle to Chubb, but he is used enough to warrant consideration as a FLEX play (Assuming you don’t also use Chubb).

Marquise Brown caught a TD pass two weeks ago from Trace McSorley. With Lamar Jackson under center, Brown has been a bit of an afterthought. The Ravens will get back Willie Snead and Mark Andrews this week and Dez Bryant has arguably passed Brown on the pecking order as well (if he doesn’t quit). Still, Cleveland has been abhorrent against opposing WRs. Earlier this year, Cleveland was equally bad against slot receivers and outside receivers.  In Week 1, Brown topped 100 yards and Snead scored a TD to go with 64 receiving yards. The Browns have been stingier of late to slot receivers, so I’m leaving Snead as nothing more than a punt WR3. As for Brown and Bryant, either could be used as a WR2 here. As good as the Ravens’ pass defense is, they have given up one decent WR performance in pretty much every game. In most of those cases, the decent performance came from an opposition’s WR1. For Cleveland, that is clearly Jarvis Landry. He has scored in two straight games and actually outperformed Odell Beckham back in Week 1 against the Browns. Based on volume alone, Landry deserves WR2 consideration. Only two teams have had two decent WR performances against Cleveland in one game. Cleveland isn’t talented enough to achieve this level. You can maybe hope for a long score for Rashard Higgins or Donovan Peoples-Jones, but they won’t have enough catches to be legitimately worth playing here.

Mark Andrews returns just in times to face a Cleveland defense that is the easiest to beat on this slate by TEs. He is the easy TE1 here. Although, I could see an argument for playing both him and Ebron in a Double-TE lineup. Baltimore is somewhat amenable to opposing TEs, so Austin Hooper gets feint consideration as TE3. I’m not going to use him, because I just don’t think Cleveland will score enough to warrant the play. Baltimore’s defense is the clearcut top choice here. Cleveland is the clearcut bottom choice here.

 

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $5.5K for Andy Dalton. $7.6K for Aaron Jones. $6.5K for David Montgomery. $9.3K for Davante Adams. $6.5K for Amari Cooper. $3.5K for  Darnell Mooney. $3.5K for Dalton Schultz. $5.2K for Melvin Gordon at FLEX. $2.4K for the Dallas defense.

At FD: $6.8K for Dalton. $8.7K for Jones. $6.6K for Montgomery. $9.6K for Adams. $6.8K for Cooper. $5.1K for Collin Johnson. $5.1K for Schultz. $6.1K for Gordon at FLEX. $4.9K for the Saints’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Aaron Rodgers, Dalton at SF, Derrick Henry, Montgomery, Adams, Cooper, Collin Johnson, Schultz, and Gordon at FLEX.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes	$8,100	$8,900
Russell Wilson	$7,900	$9,000
Deshaun Watson	$7,600	$8,000
Aaron Rodgers	$7,500	$9,100
Kyler Murray	$7,200	$8,100
Tom Brady	$6,900	$7,800
Justin Herbert	$6,800	$8,300
Ryan Tannehill	$6,700	$7,900
Taysom Hill	$6,600	$7,700
Kirk Cousins	$6,200	$7,500
Drew Brees	$6,100	$7,000
Derek Carr	$6,000	$7,100
Philip Rivers	$5,900	$7,000
Teddy Bridgewater	$5,800	$7,000
Matt Ryan	$5,700	$7,300
Matthew Stafford	$5,700	$7,200
Mitchell Trubisky	$5,600	$6,800
Andy Dalton	$5,500	$6,800
Daniel Jones	$5,500	$6,800
Tua Tagovailoa	$5,400	$6,600
Alex Smith	$5,200	$6,600
Drew Lock	$5,100	$6,700
Jalen Hurts	$5,100	$6,600
Mike Glennon	$5,100	$6,600
Nick Mullens	$5,100	$6,700
Sam Darnold	$5,100	$7,000
Colt McCoy	$5,000	$6,500
Brandon Allen	$4,900	$6,500
Ryan Finley	$4,300	$6,500

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – There are so many great pay-up plays this week at QB. Russell Wilson in a “get-right” game is my favorite option. That said, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady are all great choices. Even Ryan Tannehill could have a solid game, although I expect Tennessee to concentrate on the run. If you are looking to save money Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Mitchell Trubisky deserve consideration. Then we come to my favorite play of the week, Andy Dalton, in the revenge game against Cincy. I want more money to spend at RB/WR this week, so despite all the decent matchups up top, I am spending down here this week.

Fantasy Four Pack

Russell Wilson, Seahawks vs. NYJ ($7900 DK, $9000 FD)
Over the first eight games, Russell Wilson had four games with four or more passing TDs. Over his last four games, Russell has a total of four TDs. Facing a 29th ranked Jets squad should be just the medicine Wilson needs to cure his uncommon cold streak. It’s true that Seattle won’t have to throw the ball in this game, but with Wilson off-kilter, you know they will. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if Wilson is allowed to throw for 450-4 here before the dogs are finally called off. It will help his cause that New York should be able to put up points in response to keep this game competitive.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers @ DET ($7500 DK, $9100 FD)
Detroit has allowed the eighth-most passing TDs this season. They have also given up the seventh-most passing yards. Yes, they are also rotten against the run. So, there is a great likelihood that we will see a lot of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams this week. Still, getting Aaron Rodgers to not throw the ball just to take advantage of a good run matchup is not in Rodgers’ persona. He ceded the heavy lifting to Jones in their first meeting, but he still posted multiple TDs. This is the trend in this matchup as Rodgers has multiple TDs in 16 of their 21 hookups. The last time he failed to net multiple TDs against Detroit was in 2018. In that game, he was injured and he only got five pass attempts. You have to go back another four years just to find another game where Rodgers didn’t net multiple scores against this defense. Oh, by the way, those previous incarnations of the Lions’ defense were better than this one.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs @ MIA ($8100 DK, $8900 FD)
Miami is middle-of-the-pack in passing yards allowed. That said, they are the best team in the league in terms of passing TDs allowed and only four teams have more interceptions than they do. Still, this is Patrick Mahomes. If anyone can put a dent in Miami’s defensive stats it is him. After all, Mahomes is a better QB than guys like Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, and C.J. Beathard. These are five of the QBs that Miami has boosted their stats against.

Tom Brady, Buccaneers vs. MIN ($6900 DK, $7800 FD)
Only four teams have allowed more passing TDs than Minnesota. Normally, Minnesota would try to run the ball to control the clock and momentum. That won’t work against the Buccaneers. They hold the best RBs in check. Kirk Cousins is going to have to throw the ball to keep this one competitive. If Cousins is throwing, then of course Tom Brady will be throwing. He has three studs at WR to choose from and Minnesota has a bunch of rookies in their secondary. They have improved since the start of the season, but they haven’t seen this many threats at once yet. I like both of these guys to throw for 300-3 here as this game could approach 60 combined points.

DFS Sleepers

Andy Dalton, Cowboys @ CIN ($5500 DK, $6800 FD)
Andy Dalton’s revenge game against the Cincinnati Bengals’ mediocre secondary…sign me up! It is too bad Joe Burrow won’t get to defend his honor in this contest as well. If I’m Dallas, I let Dalton throw for as many yards and TDs as he wants.

Mitchell Trubisky, Bears vs. HOU ($5600 DK, $6800 FD)
Mitchell Trubisky has been efficient since taking back over as Chicago’s starting QB. He probably could’ve posted a bigger game last week, but Chicago did so much damage on the ground. David Montgomery will have another cakewalk rushing game this week, but Trubisky should get in on the fun too. Houston has allowed above average yardage numbers to every QB they have faced this year except Baker Mayfield in a monsoon. This includes solid passing lines from bums like Jake Luton and Cam Newton.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Dalvin Cook	$9,400	$10,200
Christian McCaffrey	$9,200	$10,000
Derrick Henry	$8,700	$9,600
Aaron Jones	$7,600	$8,700
James Robinson	$7,500	$8,000
Alvin Kamara	$7,100	$7,800
Austin Ekeler	$7,000	$7,500
Chris Carson	$6,900	$7,700
Antonio Gibson	$6,700	$6,700
Ezekiel Elliott	$6,600	$7,600
D’Andre Swift	$6,500	$6,900
David Montgomery	$6,500	$6,600
Mike Davis	$6,400	$6,800
Josh Jacobs	$6,300	$7,400
Miles Sanders	$6,200	$6,200
Raheem Mostert	$6,200	$7,100
Ronald Jones	$6,100	$6,300
Jamaal Williams	$6,000	$5,200
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	$5,900	$6,400
Jonathan Taylor	$5,800	$7,000
Wayne Gallman	$5,700	$6,000
Myles Gaskin	$5,600	$6,000
Kenyan Drake	$5,500	$6,500
Latavius Murray	$5,400	$5,500
Devontae Booker	$5,300	$5,700
David Johnson	$5,200	$5,900
Melvin Gordon	$5,200	$6,100
Nyheim Hines	$5,200	$6,100
Carlos Hyde	$5,100	$5,600
Adrian Peterson	$5,000	$5,900
Giovani Bernard	$5,000	$5,700
J.D. McKissic	$4,900	$5,300
Doug Johnson	$4,800	$5,400
Todd Gurley	$4,800	$6,100
Ty Johnson	$4,700	$5,500
Leonard Fournette	$4,500	$5,500
Ito Smith	$4,400	$5,200
Le’Veon Bell	$4,400	$5,400
Phillip Lindsay	$4,300	$5,800
Brian Hill	$4,200	$5,300
Josh Adams	$4,100	$5,100
Frank Gore	$4,000	$5,200

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones are the obvious top two choices at the position this week. Ezekiel Elliott could also be in play as a pivot that will be low-owned. I love David Montgomery for a second-straight week. He will be my likely RB2 in most lineups. Kenyan Drake and Melvin Gordon are the other two middle-priced guys I will consider here. J.D. McKissic and Ty Johnson should get the volume as replacements for their injured counterparts, but neither has a great matchup. This makes them both no better than punt options (and then only at FLEX). The better punt play might be Giovani Bernard against a Dallas defense that is abysmal.

Fantasy Four Pack

Derrick Henry, Titans @ JAC ($8700 DK, $9600 FD)
Derrick Henry gets his turn against the Jacksonville defense that was just gouged the last two weeks. Over that span, they are allowing just under 250 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. Henry is the main guy for Tennessee. He has been responsible for 83% of Tennessee’s RB touches this year. I’ll take 83% of 250 yards. The TDs are just gravy – yes I said TD(s), plural. It isn’t will he have more than one, it is how many more than one will he have.

Aaron Jones, Packers @ DET  ($7600 DK, $8700 FD)
Detroit has allowed a league-worst 23 total TDs to opposing RBs. The next-worst team has allowed only 16. Three of those TDs were scored by Aaron Jones back in Week 2. In that game, Jones also posted 236 total yards. The Lions also gave up an additional 84 total yards to the rest of the Green Bay backs in that game. This is one of the few times where I could see doing a full stack of QB-RB-WR.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings @ TB ($9400 DK, $10200 FD)
You cannot run against Tampa Bay. No one can. This includes Dalvin Cook. Still, only two teams have allowed more RB receptions than Tampa. Dalvin Cook might not get it going on the ground but he should still be good for seven or eight catches and a total of 100 combined yards. That puts him in play in DFS formats that favor full PPR like DK and FanBall.

James Robinson, Jaguars vs. TEN ($7500 DK, $8000 FD)
James Robinson has the third-most rushing yards among RBs and the fourth-most total yards among RBs. Not bad for a guy who wasn’t even projected as the Jacksonville starter prior to the season. He only has nine total TDs, but he also only has two games with fewer than 90 total yards. The TDs will be there this week as Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most total TDs to the position.

DFS Sleepers

Melvin Gordon, Broncos @ CAR ($5200 DK, $6100 FD)
We can argue until we are blue in the face whether Melvin Gordon is the top RB on his own team. All that matters is that Denver’s coaching staff fees that he is. Both Gordon and Phillip Lindsay are averaging 4.6 YPC but Gordon has a 7-1 TD advantage and 10 times as many receptions this year. Carolina has improved from last season against RBs, but then again they could have put 11 chimpanzees on the field and improved from last year. They are still definitely touchable. At this price, both Gordon and Lindsay are legit FLEX options.

Giovani Bernard, Bengals vs. DAL ($5000 DK, $5700 FD)
Giovani Bernard has watched his stats get neutered thanks to the presence of Brandon Allen under center. He still is getting the lion’s share of the touches but he has faced some very good run defenses recently. Ryan Finley relieved Brandon Allen following the latter sustaining a chest injury. Perhaps Finley under center will improve Bernard’s outlook for this week. If not at least he has the Dallas defense to look forward to. They just allowed Baltimore’s RB hodgepodge to run for 26-223-1 plus an additional 11-71-1 to their running QB Lamar Jackson.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Davante Adams	$9,300	$9,600
Tyreek Hill	$8,500	$9,000
DK Metcalf	$8,400	$8,600
Keenan Allen	$7,700	$8,500
DeAndre Hopkins	$7,600	$8,200
Calvin Ridley	$7,500	$8,100
Justin Jefferson	$7,400	$7,800
A.J. Brown	$7,300	$8,000
Tyler Lockett	$7,200	$7,900
Michael Thomas	$7,100	$7,300
Adam Thielen	$7,000	$7,700
Allen Robinson	$6,800	$7,000
Terry McLaurin	$6,700	$7,200
Julio Jones	$6,600	$7,600
Mike Evans	$6,600	$7,300
Amari Cooper	$6,500	$6,800
Deebo Samuel	$6,400	$6,300
Chris Godwin	$6,300	$7,400
Robby Anderson	$6,200	$6,500
Brandin Cooks	$6,100	$6,900
DeVante Parker	$6,100	$6,500
Kenny Golladay	$6,000	$6,600
Marvin Jones	$5,800	$6,200
Corey Davis	$5,700	$6,800
DJ Moore	$5,600	$7,100
Antonio Brown	$5,500	$6,500
Brandon Aiyuk	$5,400	$6,700
Jamison Crowder	$5,400	$6,600
DJ Chark	$5,300	$5,900
Curtis Samuel	$5,200	$5,900
Sterling Shepard	$5,200	$5,500
T.Y. Hilton	$5,100	$6,000
Allen Lazard	$5,000	$5,800
Keke Coutee	$5,000	$5,600
Michael Pittman	$5,000	$5,700
Sammy Watkins	$4,900	$5,600
Travis Fulgham	$4,900	$5,600
Tyler Boyd	$4,900	$6,700
CeeDee Lamb	$4,800	$6,000
Tee Higgins	$4,800	$6,400
Christian Kirk	$4,700	$5,500
Jerry Jeudy	$4,700	$5,600
Mike Williams	$4,700	$6,100
Nelson Agholor	$4,700	$5,200
Henry Ruggs	$4,600	$5,400
Russell Gage	$4,500	$5,500
Jalen Reagor	$4,400	$5,500
Emmanuel Sanders	$4,300	$5,300
Darius Slayton	$4,200	$5,400
Tim Patrick	$4,200	$5,400
Laviska Shenault	$4,100	$5,400
Danny Amendola	$4,000	$5,200
Hunter Renfrow	$4,000	$5,300
Anthony Miller	$3,900	$5,000
Breshad Perriman	$3,900	$5,800
Chad Hansen	$3,900	$5,100
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	$3,900	$5,400
Demarcus Robinson	$3,800	$5,200
Michael Gallup	$3,800	$5,300
Collin Johnson	$3,600	$5,100
Golden Tate	$3,600	$5,100
Darnell Mooney	$3,500	$5,100
Larry Fitzgerald	$3,500	$5,000
David Moore	$3,400	$4,800
Steven Sims	$3,300	$4,600
Mecole Hardman	$3,200	$5,300
Quintez Cephus	$3,200	$5,000
Greg Ward	$3,100	$5,000
A.J. Green	$3,000	$5,300
Jamal Agnew	$3,000	$4,800
KJ Hamler	$3,000	$5,000
Lynn Bowden	$3,000	$4,600

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Davante Adams has managed to blow up the last couple of weeks despite facing premium coverage. That alone earns him the top spot in most of my lineups this week. Both, DK Metcalf and Keenan Allen could be a pivot from him. Still, I love the idea of Adams at WR1 paired with one of the Cowboys (Amari Cooper or CeeDee Lamb) at WR2. If I don’t use one of these two at WR2, I will likely use Michael Gallup at WR3. My other choices at WR2 include Allen Robinson, one of the Vikings, Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown, and Corey Davis. With the added players this week, it would be easy to punt up top here. For me, it will depend on how much I spend at QB. If you need to spend down at WR2, you could use Keke Coutee, Jamison Crowder, D.J. Chark, or Tyler Boyd. Cheaper WR3 options to consider include Tim Patrick, the other Bears’ WRs, the other Jets’ WRs, and the other Jaguars’ WRs. Among them, Darnell Mooney and Collin Johnson offer the most value to me.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Davante Adams, Packers @ DET ($9300 DK, $9600 FD)
Despite facing a murderer’s row of coverage in the last three weeks, Davante Adams has posted 23-288-4. This is just the tip of a seven-game run during which he has recorded 61-776-11. Those 11 touchdowns would rank third on the season and he has that in just his last seven games. Detroit has actually been successful at holding opposing WRs out of the end zone. Unfortunately for them, they have given up the fourth-most yardage to the position (and the most over the last four weeks). Apparently, their defensive backs must be great at pursuit, catching opposing WRs down in the red zone after long plays.

DK Metcalf, Seahawks vs. NYJ ($8400 DK, $8600 FD)
Only two teams have given up more receiving yards to opposing WRs than the Jets. DK Metcalf has also been run through a chamber of horrors over his last seven facing elite level cornerbacks from  Buffalo, Arizona 2x, Philadelphia, the Rams, Giants, and Niners. All he has done over that span is accrue the third-most receiving yards in the league. Russell Wilson’s passing TDs have fallen recently but he is due to have a monster game this week. Metcalf will be the primary beneficiary.

Keenan Allen, Chargers vs. ATL ($7700 DK, $8500 FD)
Atlanta’s pass defense has allowed the second-most WR receiving yards. They have particularly struggled with possession and slot WRs. The numbers look slightly better recently, but that coincides with facing Drew Lock, Taysom Hill, and Derek Carr. Even against those “vaunted” arms, featured possession guys like Michael Thomas, Jerry Jeudy, and Hunter Renfrow have posted big lines. Meanwhile, Keenan Allen has a couple of limited outputs in the last two weeks. He still scored in one of them. In fact, he has scored in five of his last six games. With questionable alternate resources to throw to, Justin Herbert will pepper Keenan Allen until the cows come home. In this game that should equal 9-90-1

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs @ MIA ($8500 DK, $9000 FD)
Miami’s cornerbacks are very good but facing Tyreek Hill is a challenge that keeps even the best CBs up at night. Plus, some of the better performances against them this year have come from “speed” WRs. Hill is riding a heater of nine TDs in his last six games. It helps when he can get behind any defensive back at any time and when he has a QB that can throw the ball the length of the field with accuracy.

DFS Sleepers

Jamison Crowder, Jets @ SEA ($5300 DK, $5600 FD)
Seattle remains the worst in the league against opposing WRs. They have played better recently since the activation of Jamal Adams, but they still sit at the bottom of the barrel for the year. All season, they have had issues covering inside WRs when there have been other talented WRs on the field simultaneously. That will be the circumstance this weekend as Breshad Perriman should provide enough of a nuisance to free up Jamison Crowder inside. Last week, it allowed Crowder to score twice. The outlook would be even rosier if Denzel Mims was available, but he is dealing with a personal issue and is expected to miss this week’s game. Crowder’s biggest success has come with Sam Darnold under center and that won’t change this weekend.

Keke Coutee, Texans @ CHI ($5000 DK, $5600 FD)
People who follow me on Twitter will attest that Sunday morning I was begging players to use Keke Coutee after the news of Will Fuller’s suspension came out. It didn’t matter that Houston was facing the all-world Colts’ defense, since Deshaun Watson was going to throw the ball all over the field regardless. Chicago also has a good defense, but they are trending the wrong way. Over the last four weeks, they are allowing a league-high six WR scores. Coutee has a skillset well designed to fill in for Fuller. He even has Fuller’s propensity for injury. As long as he doesn’t get knocked out of the game, he will put up another huge line.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Travis Kelce	$7,400	$8,200
Darren Waller	$6,800	$7,100
T.J. Hockenson	$5,000	$6,000
Rob Gronkowski	$4,800	$6,200
Mike Gesicki	$4,500	$5,700
Hunter Henry	$4,400	$5,600
Evan Engram	$4,300	$5,700
Robert Tonyan	$4,200	$5,900
Noah Fant	$4,100	$5,500
Dallas Goedert	$4,000	$5,600
Jonnu Smith	$3,900	$5,400
Jared Cook	$3,800	$5,400
Hayden Hurst	$3,700	$5,500
Zach Ertz	$3,700	$5,300
Anthony Firkser	$3,600	$5,100
Dan Arnold	$3,600	$5,000
Dalton Schultz	$3,500	$5,100
Jordan Reed	$3,500	$5,000
Logan Thomas	$3,300	$5,200
Irv Smith	$3,100	$5,100
Jacob Hollister	$3,100	$4,900
Trey Burton	$3,100	$5,200
Tyler Eifert	$3,100	$4,700
Drew Sample	$3,000	$4,700
Jimmy Graham	$3,000	$5,200
Cole Kmet	$2,900	$4,600
Jordan Akins	$2,900	$5,000
Kyle Rudolph	$2,900	$4,800
Will Dissly	$2,900	$4,600
Darren Fells	$2,500	$4,800
James O’Shaughnessy	$2,500	$4,100

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Paying up for Travis Kelce or T.J. Hockenson would be nice this week but I am simply spending too much elsewhere. Rob Gronkowski, Hunter Henry, and Robert Tonyan are more likely the expensive options I will roll with. That said, with the amount I am spending elsewhere, I will likely punt down to one of the Titans, one of the Seahawks, one of the Texans, one of the Jaguars, or my favorite plays Logan Thomas and Dalton Schultz.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ MIA ($7400 DK, $8200 FD)
On paper, Miami has looked very good against TEs this season. They also have faced a bunch of crumb bums. The THREE above-average TEs they have faced have done well against them. They also just gave up a very solid line to Drew Sample last week. Travis Kelce, you may have heard of him. He is a smidge more-talented than Drew Sample. His QB is just a shade better than Brandon Allen. Despite playing TE, Kelce is the #2 overall receiving option in football right now. He is only five yards behind DK Metcalf for the league title. He has one game all season that he has not either topped 70 receiving yards and/or scored. What I am saying is it doesn’t matter who he is facing, Kelce will always be the TE1 on the slate.

Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers vs. MIN ($4800 DK, $6200 FD)
I was already concerned about the Vikings’ defense trying to stop the Buccaneers’ passing offense. That was before the Vikings’ lost their best LB to injury during warmups to last week’s game. Eric Kendricks’ status for this week is very much up in the air. If he doesn’t play, an already depleted secondary will have no prayer here. Rob Gronkowski will likely score in this game even if Kendricks is on the field. If he misses this one Gronk may lead all athletes not named Davante Adams in scoring this week.

T.J. Hockenson, Lions vs. GB ($5000 DK, $6000 FD)
T.J. Hockenson has the third-most yards and the sixth-most scores among TEs this season. This includes his averaging 5-80 over the last three games. Green Bay has been solid against the position this season but over the last three weeks, they have gotten bitten some by volume. If Matthew Stafford gives Hockenson the volume he has seen recently, a 7-70-1 line is certainly attainable.

Hunter Henry, Chargers vs. ATL ($4400 DK, $5600 FD)
The entire Chargers’ offense crapped the bed last week versus New England. This week will be a little bit easier. Whereas the Patriots have allowed one TE score this year, the Falcons have allowed nine. Hunter Henry only saw two targets last week. This was only the third time this season he failed to have six targets or more. If Justin Herbert is going to turn around his recent struggles, he will need to lean on Henry again.

DFS Sleepers

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys @ CIN ($3500 DK, $5100 FD) Only three teams have allowed more TE receptions and no team has allowed more receiving yards to the position than Cincinnati. This includes giving up 17-233-1 over the last two weeks. Dalton Schultz has seen his numbers flutter since Dak Prescott’s injury. That said, over the last couple of weeks, Dalton has started to get on the same page as his QB. With the revenge game in play for Andy Dalton, I love the stack with his TE and one of his WRs. This will save you big bucks for using at RB and WR1.

Logan Thomas, Football Team @ SF ($3300 DK, $5200 FD) When Antonio Gibson was knocked out of the Washington game versus Pittsburgh last week, I expected J.D. McKissic to be absolutely peppered. He got a ton of targets, but the other winner was Logan Thomas. Thomas scored for the second-straight game and he caught all nine of his targets for 98 yards. The Niners have been very good against the position, but they haven’t faced a lot of studs. It will be interesting to see if Thomas remains a top two or three passing game option for Alex Smith. At this price on DK, he is definitely worth the risk.

[lawrence-newslette

What a crazy last week as Baltimore forced the entire league into a horror spiral of reschedulings. This also affected the Week 13 slate as the Thursday game is gone, but there are now multiple Monday games and even another Tuesday game. Pittsburgh once again got screwed due to another team’s COVID issues and poor Denver was forced to play with a Practice-Squad WR as their quarterback. But at least Baltimore will only be without Lamar for one week, so it is good to see that the NFL isn’t picking favorites.

 

DFS: The Primetime Plus Slate

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

At least Denver gets to start an actual QB against Kansas City this week. I am unapologetically a Broncos’ Hater, and a Chiefs’ Homer, but the NFL did Denver dirty last week. Unfortunately for the Broncos, their actual QBs aren’t much better than the WR they trotted out last week. Drew Lock is their only option to put up a fight against KC, and even then it isn’t really close. If Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, or Blake Bortles is forced to play, just cancel this game too. Drew Lock should be able to post 275-2, mostly in garbage time. This would actually put him in the QB4 range on the S-M-T slate. As for Patrick Mahomes, the only QB on the slate with any hope of beating him would be Lamar Jackson on Tuesday. Of’ course, you would need to know 100% that he was going to play before fading Mahomes for him. Anything less than 375-3 for Mahomes would be upsetting.

Philip Lindsay left Week 12 with an injury to his knee, early reports suggest he should be ok for this game. If he plays, he has FLEX value, but Melvin Gordon is the safer TD-target. KC is actually not very good against the run, so they are both in play, but I’m not rushing to start either of them. It should be noted that KC is much more amenable to opposing pass-catching backs, and that role is Gordon’s over Lindsay. Clyde Edwards-Helaire scored in their earlier meeting and both he and Le’Veon Bell posted nice YPC. The issue was that neither had more than eight carries. Helaire is definitely leading the carry numbers over the last couple of weeks, but Bell has averaged more receptions. With KC likely ahead a lot early, odds are that we see more carries in the second half rather than passes. This suggests that Helaire is the better play. I still don’t see either of them as better than an RB4 on this elongated slate.

Jerry Jeudy is the safest play for the Broncos’ WRs. Still, I wouldn’t play him as anything more than a WR3. Tim Patrick is actually a better play as he will be lesser-owned. Both KJ Hamler and Daesean Hamilton may get enough looks to be FLEX worthy if you want additional exposure to this game. As for KC, Tyreek Hill went berzerk last week netting nearly 5X as many yards as he had in the earlier contest against Denver. After that start, using him seems like chasing points. Still, he is the top option on this slate and he has scored nine touchdowns over his last five games. Sammy Watkins finished second on the team amongst WRs in targets, and he didn’t reinjure himself. That alone makes him playable. I see him as a safe WR3 if you don’t use Hill. Demarcus Robinson was surprisingly still targeted six times with the returning Watkins. This suggests that he isn’t disappearing any time soon. I’d just be wary of using him as anything more than an exposure-play since this game could go pear-shaped fast and lead to more rushes and fewer passes. The same goes for Mecole Hardman. I’d definitely use him in Showdown, but I don’t see the volume there this week.

Noah Fant was the only Bronco to catch a pass last week. He has been getting regular targets ever since returning from injury. In their earlier meeting, Fant combined with Albert Okwuegbunam for 10-98. Albert is in the can for the rest of the year, so potentially all of that could come Fant’s way. With both Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce on this slate, I still won’t trust Fant as more than TE3. That said, his price will be much cheaper than those two, so roll away. Kelce is the best athlete on the slate. He is also the most expensive. Denver is only so-so against TEs and they held him in check last time. I cannot believe they will achieve that twice in one season. His numbers will be fine. KC’s defense is the third-best option to choose from this week. Denver’s is the twelfth-best option (and yes, there are only four defenses on the slate).

 

Washington Football Team @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I feel bad for Washington this week. I love their young RB and their young WR1, but they are running into a black and gold wall that will be in a foul mood due to getting done dirty by the NFL executives. Alex Smith is a streamable QB in certain situations. This isn’t one of them. His best hope is 175-2. As for Ben Roethlisberger, this isn’t a great matchup for him either. Fortunately, it is at home and he has all of his pass-catching weapons active. He will likely finish as QB4 on this slate with a pair of TDs and a sub-BigBen line.

Antonio Gibson has been one of the top-three rookie RBs this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has begun to ease up on opposing RBs. They are still elite, just not as elite as they were earlier this year. With so many question marks at the position this week, I’ll gladly use him as RB2 or FLEX. J.D. McKissic also deserves some attention as the pass-catching option, since Washington will likely be playing from behind. James Conner missed Week 12 due to COVID. His status for this week is still in question. I’m more concerned about Pittsburgh ignoring the running game than I am about Conner’s illness. If he cannot go, Benny Snell becomes a sneaky FLEX option, but he too may be left out of the passing game.

Terry McLaurin is the only sure thing WR on Washington. Pittsburgh knows this as well and has the tools to shut him down. That said, McLaurin has done enough against very good defenses to not completely write off. I don’t see using him as anything more than a contrarian play, but the salary may be too high to even justify that. Dontrelle Inman, and the two Sims, just don’t receive enough targets to use in a bad matchup. Pittsburgh has three “stud” WRs, but Washington has allowed the second-fewest WR scores this season. Most of the damage against them has come from large-bodied outside WRs. That should favor Chase Claypool, but he has also been the least consistent of the Steelers’ big-three. I like both him and Diontae Johnson as over-priced WR2 but again I’m not racing to start any of the three since they are expensive. JuJu Smith-Schuster has the size and the talent to do something, but he still would be my third choice. James Washington has actually started to fall behind Ray-Ray McCloud on the touch list. I’ll pass on both of them.

Logan Thomas’ matchup isn’t great either, but he has been getting a lot of targets recently, especially in the red zone. I don’t like him for many yards here, but with so much attention targeted towards McLaurin, I like Thomas to score a short TD. He still is looking at a TE5 slot at best. Eric Ebron has actually been even more reliable scoring frequently of late. Washington has allowed a ton of yards, receptions, and TDs to opposing TEs this year. He will battle Fant for the TE3 slot on this docket making himself a great pivot play. Washington’s defense is usually a great play. This week, they aren’t even the best play in this game. That said, I will have some exposure to them since their pass rush is so damn good.

 

Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers

All of the premium QBs to face San Francisco have had their way with them. Their numbers look better because of their ability to frustrate mediocre QBs. Josh Allen is elite enough to put up a solid line here. He is no worse than the QB4 here, and I personally believe that he will finish closer to QB2 than whoever finishes as the QB4. Nick Mullens is arguably a better QB than Jimmy Garoppolo. Still, his success this week will be determined by whether or not Brandon Aiyuk plays. If Aiyuk is out there, he will likely draw Tre’Davious White’s coverage, opening things up for Deebo Samuel. This game could still become a shootout, so I definitely like Mullens on FanBall in SuperFlex, but I’ll probably pass on him as a QB1 in full Primetime slate play.

Buffalo cannot decide if Zack Moss or Devin Singletary is going to be their RB1. After a pair of duds, Singletary led the backfield again in Week 12. Unfortunately, these two splitting reps really harshes my mellow about playing either of them. It doesn’t help that San Fran is pretty solid against the run too. I’ll probably fade them both here, with only minor FLEX-posure to Singletary. Raheem Mostert returned last week and looked very good despite being on a snap count. I expect a full complement of usage this week, but with Mike Shanahanigans calling the show, you never really know in SF. I still have him as the best matchup this week for an opposing RB. So, I will have him in the vast majority of my lineups. Unless he reinjures himself before game time. Neither Jerick McKinnon nor Jeff Wilson should receive enough usage to play this week. Things might get even shadier if Tevin Coleman returns this week. Let us all hope he doesn’t.

Stefon Diggs’ first-half usage last week was puzzling. Basically, every WR for Buffalo had to be shaking their head while they watched the first half play out. Yes, the trick play from Cole Beasley to Gabriel Davis was cool, but when Beasley and Diggs see only five total targets in the first half of a game without John Brown. You start scratching your head. WR1s have destroyed San Francisco this season. Diggs should be the only true pivot from Tyreek Hill, and realistically you should just roster both of them. Meanwhile, slot WRs have done next to nothing against SF this year. So start Beasley at your own risk. If Brown is out again, I could see using Davis as a punt WR3, but I feel there are better options. Buffalo has a great CB in Tre’Davious White, the issue is that he refuses to shadow an opponent’s top WR. San Fran can take advantage of this by lining up Deebo Samuel in the slot, especially if Brandon Aiyuk is available to line up outside. This is why you have to give serious consideration to Deebo at WR3, or possibly even FLEX. Aiyuk returning is probably best left on the bench. Kendrick Bourne is always a TD threat, so you can definitely consider him as a punt WR3. I wouldn’t go any deeper though unless Aiyuk is out. In that case, Richie James could be a punt WR3 option as well.

San Francisco has the best defense in the league against opposing TEs. Good luck choosing which Buffalo TE to count on week-to-week anyway. The best you can hope for with any of them is the 1-5-1 line. There is no skin on the bone in that strategy. Jordan Reed played through an illness last week, it may be the first time in history where Reed was on the injured list on a Friday and that he actually played on Sunday. He was a dud last week anyway. That said, he still outperformed Ross Dwelley. As long as Reed remains healthy (and that is always a risk), he will have a good day this week since Buffalo is awful against opposing TEs. If I don’t spend up at the position, Reed is probably the safest cheap option. I believe there may actually be some points scored here., so I don’t love either defense. If I had to choose it would be Buffalo since Mullens is a lesser QB than Allen, but there are better options available.

 

Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens

Andy Dalton has experience facing the Ravens. That is all that he has going for himself this week. If he is lucky, maybe a few of the Ravens’ defenders might still be out due to COVID, but of course, the NFL could just push it back till they are all healthy too. The only QB that I would rank behind Dalton this week is Alex Smith. Lamar Jackson is on track to be able to play in this contest. Assuming he does, he gets the QB2 assignment on this slate. If he is out, then downgrade all of the Ravens’ skill position players. Robert Griffin has value as an alternate against this weak defense, but if he starts, he slides below Josh Allen and Big Ben on my wish list.

Ezekiel Elliott has been an abject bust this season. It clearly isn’t entirely his fault, but why subject yourself to paying his salary to run face-first into this defense. That said, Baltimore has actually given up several solid games to opposing brute-force RBs. So, if the price is palatable, you can consider him at RB2. I’ll pass on Tony Pollard though. J.K. Dobbins is finally getting fed like a true RB1. Dallas is rotten against the run, so consider Dobbins the safest RB1 option on the slate. Mark Ingram has fallen out of favor and Gus Edwards is more of the true backup now. I wouldn’t bother with either of them unless one of the others tests positive for COVID.

Baltimore is one of the best in the league against opposing WRs. Still, recently, the Ravens have been more giving to big-bodied outside WRs. All of the Cowboys’ WRs are bigger, but I will give the edge here to Amari Cooper since he has been the most consistent among them. I could see either him or CeeDee Lamb scoring a TD, but not both of them. Both should also have good but not great final lines. Michael Gallup has been more involved of late, but he remains the third-fiddle in a game against an elite pass defense. That is a no for me. Obviously, if I am not considering him. I am also not considering Cedrick Wilson. Marquise Brown has been more Fresno than Hollywood this season. He has an abysmal 6-55-1 line total over the last four weeks. Yuck. If this wasn’t Dallas, he wouldn’t even deserve coverage in this article. You can actually grit your team and use him at WR3 this week. It may be the last time all season. Dez Bryant gets the Revenge Game narrative. I feel better about him than Hollywood. Willie Snead has also been reliable for Lamar Jackson. Now he just has to clear COVID protocol. If he does Snead makes a solid WR3 option based on volume. If Snead doesn’t play, I like Dez even more. I’m not ready to count on Devin Duvernay yet, but he is someone to watch for the future. He might be a better Showdown option.

Mark Andrews tested positive for COVID in Week 12 and missed the game against Pittsburgh. If he is cleared for this contest, he is no worse than TE3 as Dallas can be beaten by the position. That said, Andrews is a type-1 diabetic which could cause issues with the disease. Baltimore lacks any additional depth at the position, so if he is a no-go you can ignore the position here. As for Dallas, Dalton Schultz is everything that we expected Blake Jarwin to be. Schultz ranks fifth among TEs in receptions and 13th in receiving yards. He only has three scores, but with the WRs being strangled this week, he is in a good position to score here.  Baltimore is middle-of-the-pack at best against TEs, making Schultz the true safest option in Dallas’ passing game this week. Baltimore’s defense (even if they are short-handed by COVID) versus Andy Dalton is juicy. KC and Pittsburgh are the only two matchups I feel stronger about. Dallas’ defense should be avoided unless Lamar Jackson is out. Then, Dallas can be avoided as anything but a contrarian play.

 

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $6.4K for Kirk Cousins. $6.7K for Miles Sanders. $5.5K for David Montgomery. $7.6K for A.J. Brown. $6.9K for Justin Jefferson. $3.8K for  Golden Tate. $4.3K for Dallas Goedert. $4.4K for Frank Gore at FLEX. $4.4K for the Dolphins’ defense.

At FD: $7.3K for Cousins. $7.2K for Sanders. $6.2K for Montgomery. $8.2K for Brown. $7.7K for Jefferson. $7.2K for Michael Thomas. $5K for Kyle Rudolph. $6.1K for Wayne Gallman at FLEX. $4.9K for the Dolphins’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Cousins, Patrick Mahomes at SF, Dalvin Cook, Sanders, Tyreek Hill, Jefferson, Tate, Rudolph, and Gore at FLEX.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Russell Wilson	$7,700	$9,000
Kyler Murray	$7,600	$8,700
Deshaun Watson	$7,500	$8,200
Justin Herbert	$6,900	$7,900
Aaron Rodgers	$6,800	$8,500
Kirk Cousins	$6,400	$7,300
Taysom Hill	$6,300	$7,700
Ryan Tannehill	$6,200	$7,800
Ryan Fitzpatrick	$6,000	$7,400
Philip Rivers	$5,900	$7,000
Tua Tagovailoa	$5,900	$6,700
Cam Newton	$5,800	$7,500
Derek Carr	$5,800	$7,200
Jared Goff	$5,800	$7,200
Matthew Stafford	$5,700	$6,800
Gardner Minshew	$5,600	$7,000
Matt Ryan	$5,600	$7,400
Daniel Jones	$5,500	$7,100
Carson Wentz	$5,400	$7,300
Mitchell Trubisky	$5,400	$6,900
Nick Foles	$5,400	$6,900
Baker Mayfield	$5,300	$7,100
Jalen Hurts	$5,300	$6,900
Sam Darnold	$5,000	$6,500
Brandon Allen	$4,800	$6,000
Colt McCoy	$4,800	$6,500
Mike Glennon	$4,800	$6,800
Ryan Finley	$4,800	$6,300
Jacoby Brissett	$4,400	$6,000

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Kirk Cousins is the safest play among the higher-priced QBs. I never thought that I would write that line. You can also use Russell Wilson, but his price is decisively higher. I like Ryan Tannehill as my pivot play here. I could also see using Ryan Fitzpatrick if Miami gives him another start. As for punt options, I will consider whoever starts for the Giants, Mitchell Trubisky, and Baker Mayfield. You can also take a risk with Sam Darnold. I wouldn’t go overboard on that play though.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Russell Wilson, Seahawks vs. NYG ($7700 DK, $9000 FD)
Russell Wilson is always a threat to go crazy and throw for 400-4. The Giants’ pass defense is strong enough to give Wilson some fits, but they cannot stop both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. They also cannot stop the run. This may actually hurt Wilson’s total output this week as he won’t have to throw the ball as much with Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde rumbling over the opposition. 275-2 is always Wilson’s floor. I’d be a little concerned about that $9K FD price, but his DK salary isn’t horrible.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. PHI ($6800 DK, $8500 FD)
Despite DK Metcalf eating Darius Slay for dinner last week, the Philly pass defense remains on the above side of average. Slay has been pretty damn elite every game until the last one. Either way, this won’t be a smash game for Aaron Rodgers, but it will be a decent game. Much like Wilson, Rodgers has a pretty high floor. This means that his DK salary is always in 3X territory. However, just like Wilson, his FD price is probably a shade high this week. He still is good for 250-2+.

Kirk Cousins, Vikings vs. JAC ($6400 DK, $7300 FD)
Among the higher-priced quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins is the most expensive option that I feel confident will reach 3X value. Atlanta is the only team to allow more total TDs to the quarterback position than the Jaguars. Cousins isn’t a real threat for a rushing TD, but Jacksonville also has allowed the second-most passing TDs to the position. That sets up nicely for Cousins, who has the second-most passing TDs over the last four weeks.

Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. CLE ($6200 DK, $7800 FD)
Ryan Tannehill gets to lock horns with Cleveland in what should be a shootout. They have allowed the sixth-most passing TDs this season. Part of that is because their defense is better against the run than the pass. Tennessee will attempt to topple that trend with Derrick Henry, but there will be yardage for Tannehill too. I especially like him paired with A.J. Brown as Cleveland has really struggled with WR1s.

DFS Sleepers

Baker Mayfield, Browns @ TEN ($5300 DK, $7100 FD)
As I mentioned right above, this should be a shootout. Tennessee is equally bad against the run and the pass. The Titans have actually allowed more passing TDs than the Browns. Baker Mayfield was ice cold for a few weeks (thanks to having a couple of bad weather games and no reliable WRs), but he finally remembered that he had Jarvis Landry to throw to last week. Expect more of the same this week.

Colt McCoy, Giants @ SEA ($4800 DK, $6500 FD)
This play of course is based on Daniel Jones missing the game due to his injury from last week. If Jones plays, I like him as well, but he is not as cheap. Seattle has allowed nearly 400 more passing yards than the next closest team. They also have given up 25 total QB scores. Colt McCoy has been serviceable in his limited action the last few seasons but he has a lot of weapons to choose from. I especially like pairing him with Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate. I also do not like Evan Engram as a pairing this week.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Dalvin Cook	$9,500	$10,500
Derrick Henry	$9,200	$10,000
Nick Chubb	$7,700	$8,700
Josh Jacobs	$7,400	$7,800
James Robinson	$7,300	$7,800
Aaron Jones	$7,200	$8,400
Austin Ekeler	$7,100	$7,000
Alvin Kamara	$7,000	$7,500
Miles Sanders	$6,700	$7,200
D’Andre Swift	$6,500	$6,800
Chris Carson	$6,300	$8,000
Boston Scott	$6,000	$5,700
Latavius Murray	$5,900	$5,800
Myles Gaskin	$5,900	$5,500
Duke Johnson	$5,800	$6,000
Jonathan Taylor	$5,700	$6,400
Kenyan Drake	$5,700	$6,600
Wayne Gallman	$5,600	$6,100
David Montgomery	$5,500	$6,200
Devontae Booker	$5,500	$6,000
Kareem Hunt	$5,400	$6,300
Carlos Hyde	$5,300	$5,700
Nyheim Hines	$5,300	$6,400
Damien Harris	$5,200	$5,900
Giovani Bernard	$5,200	$5,800
James White	$5,000	$5,700
Adrian Peterson	$4,900	$5,600
Chase Edmonds	$4,900	$5,500
Brian Hill	$4,800	$5,800
Ito Smith	$4,700	$5,500
Cam Akers	$4,500	$5,600
Frank Gore	$4,400	$5,300
Matt Breida	$4,400	$5,300
Darrell Henderson	$4,300	$5,600
Dwayne Washington	$4,000	$4,500
Jalen Richard	$4,000	$4,500
Sony Michel	$4,000	$5,300

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Derrick Henry joins Dalvin Cook at the $10K+ club on FD. Both are still great plays. If you can use one of them, please do. I am looking forward to spending up at WR this week, so I will likely pivot down to Nick Chubb or Austin Ekeler, both of whom are much cheaper. Either way, roster one of those four at RB1. Miles Sanders and Chris Carson are also cheaper considerations at RB1 or RB2 if you choose to pay up for RBs this week. I love Jonathan Taylor and David Montgomery as additional RB2 options. Myles Gaskin is also in play (if he returns from his injury). If Gaskin doesn’t play Matt Breida and Dwayne Washington could be decent punt options. They could also be used at FLEX. That said, I doubt I won’t use Frank Gore at FLEX or one of the Raiders if Josh Jacobs is out.

Fantasy Four Pack

Dalvin Cook, Vikings @ JAC ($9500 DK, $10500 FD)
In this matchup, I wouldn’t be opposed to stacking Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, a WR, and a TE. That would be putting a lot of trust in the Vikings’ offense, but more importantly, it would be showing a lot of trust in the ineptitude of Jacksonville. I am a little concerned about the price on FD since Cook did have a minor injury last week. When Minnesota gets far enough ahead, we might see a larger share of Alexander Mattison than Cook’s owners might prefer.

Derrick Henry, Titans vs. CLE  ($9200 DK, $10000 FD)
I love both of the QBs in this contest and I love both of the RB1s as well. Nick Chubb is a lot cheaper, but he also has to share touches with Kareem Hunt. Derrick Henry doesn’t share with anyone. Cleveland is considerably better against the run than the pass, but Henry has proved the last couple of weeks that he is matchup-proof. Just don’t expect three TDs here.

Nick Chubb, Browns @ TEN ($7700 DK, $8700 FD)
Just play everyone in this game that lines up behind the line of scrimmage. You can also consider A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Austin Hooper, and Jarvis Landry, among the players that line up on the line of scrimmage. Nick Chubb is a preferred play for me instead of Henry because he is cheaper.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers vs. NE ($7100 DK, $7000 FD)
New England has been hit-or-miss against opposing RBs this season. They also have an elite pass defense. If I was the Chargers, my strategy this week would be to limit Justin Herbert’s downfield pass attempts and work more with the short-passing game to Austin Ekeler and Hunter Henry. Ekeler did not rusty at all last week, and he had an ok game on the ground and an absurdly great one through the air. Even the best WRs don’t garner 16 targets very often. It would behoove the Chargers to repeat that game plan here.

DFS Sleepers

David Montgomery, Bears vs. DET ($5500 DK, $6200 FD)
David Montgomery proved last week that he could be a valuable RB1 when facing a subpar defense. His usage in the passing game only boosts his value. The presence of Mitchell Trubisky is probably best for him too, as Trubisky’s lack of pocket presence increases the likelihood of dump-off passes. Detroit is rotten against the run having allowed a league-worst 21 total RB scores. This sets up for a perfect storm for David this week as he should top 100 yards on the ground, post 6-40 through the air, and score at least once.

Frank Gore, Jets vs. LV ($4400 DK, $5300 FD)
Frank Gore still has some life in those 57-year-old legs. He didn’t score but he carried the ball 18 times for 74 yards and even added three receptions. If I didn’t know better, I’d guess he was only 47 years old. What’s that? He is only 37? Wow, he’s just a spring chicken. No wonder, he did so well. Las Vegas has allowed the third-most total TDs to opposing RBs. So, perhaps Gore gets into the end zone this week as well. At this price, he will be my favorite FLEX play.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Davante Adams	$9,000	$9,500
DK Metcalf	$8,200	$8,500
Keenan Allen	$8,100	$8,100
DeAndre Hopkins	$7,800	$8,000
A.J. Brown	$7,600	$8,200
Tyler Lockett	$7,400	$7,900
Adam Thielen	$7,300	$7,800
Calvin Ridley	$7,200	$8,400
Michael Thomas	$7,000	$7,200
Justin Jefferson	$6,900	$7,700
Allen Robinson	$6,700	$6,900
Julio Jones	$6,600	$8,000
DeVante Parker	$6,400	$6,800
Jarvis Landry	$6,200	$6,000
Cooper Kupp	$6,100	$6,600
Kenny Golladay	$6,000	$7,000
Robert Woods	$5,900	$7,100
Marvin Jones	$5,700	$6,000
Brandin Cooks	$5,600	$6,500
Jakobi Meyers	$5,500	$5,900
DJ Chark	$5,400	$6,300
Sterling Shepard	$5,300	$5,600
Christian Kirk	$5,200	$5,800
Nelson Agholor	$5,200	$5,400
Travis Fulgham	$5,200	$6,300
Corey Davis	$5,100	$6,100
Jamison Crowder	$5,100	$6,200
Allen Lazard	$5,000	$5,600
Michael Pittman	$4,900	$5,600
Mike Williams	$4,800	$5,800
Emmanuel Sanders	$4,700	$5,300
Tyler Boyd	$4,700	$6,600
Darius Slayton	$4,600	$5,700
Tee Higgins	$4,600	$6,400
Henry Ruggs	$4,500	$5,400
Jalen Reagor	$4,500	$5,500
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	$4,400	$5,700
Hunter Renfrow	$4,300	$5,400
T.Y. Hilton	$4,300	$5,600
Josh Reynolds	$4,200	$5,500
Denzel Mims	$4,100	$5,500
Rashard Higgins	$4,000	$5,400
Breshad Perriman	$3,900	$5,900
Damiere Byrd	$3,900	$5,300
Golden Tate	$3,800	$5,200
Keelan Cole	$3,800	$5,300
Danny Amendola	$3,700	$5,000
Larry Fitzgerald	$3,600	$5,000
Laviska Shenault	$3,600	$5,200
Jakeem Grant	$3,500	$4,800
Keke Coutee	$3,500	$4,800
Marvin Hall	$3,500	$4,900
Zach Pascal	$3,500	$4,800
Darnell Mooney	$3,400	$5,100
David Moore	$3,400	$5,000
Collin Johnson	$3,300	$5,000
A.J. Green	$3,100	$5,200
Anthony Miller	$3,100	$4,900
Mohamed Sanu	$3,000	$4,900

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – I’m concerned about whichever WR lines up opposite James Bradberry in the SEA-NYG game. That said, big-bodied WRs have had more success against New York recently, so consider DK Metcalf the play unless the shadow coverage of Metcalf is announced prior to game time. If Bradberry is on Lockett as I expect, Metcalf is a solid WR1 option. Otherwise, the safer options would be A.J. Brown, one of the Vikings, or Michael Thomas. I have three favorites for WR2, led by Allen Robinson. He should be in every lineup as either WR1 or WR2. The other two that I like are Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker.  There are a ton of options for WR3. I’m leaning Sterling Shepard, but I’ll take any Giants, Colts, Raiders, or Jets’ WR. It might be chasing points, but Collin Johnson makes a sneaky punt play as do both Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller if you decide to fade Allen Robinson.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

A.J. Brown, Titans vs. CLE ($7600 DK, $8200 FD)
Similar larger-bodied WRs such as Collin Johnson, Will Fuller, Dontrelle Inman, Tyler Boyd, and Chase Claypool have all had success against Cleveland this season. Meanwhile, A.J. Brown has scored in seven of the eight games since his return from injury. This is despite facing some elite-level defenses such as Baltimore, Pittsburgh, The Bills, The Bears, and Indy twice. Cleveland has a solid run defense, but their pass defense pales in comparison to those listed above.

Adam Thielen, Vikings vs. JAC ($7300 DK, $7800 FD)
Adam Thielen returns from his COVID hiatus to face a Jacksonville defense that is allowing the sixth-most yardage to opposing WRs. I love both Thielen and Justin Jefferson to have huge games. Each will approach 100 yards and score. I wouldn’t be surprised if Thielen scores twice.

Allen Robinson, Bears vs. DET ($6700 DK, $6900 FD)
Mitchell Trubisky has averaged three passing TDs in his last four games against Detroit. In these games, Allen Robinson has scored three TDs and averaged 6-95. If you decide to get cute and not use ARob, please get exposure to this game thru Darnell Mooney or Anthony Miller.

Michael Thomas, Saints @ ATL ($7000 DK, $7200 FD)
This is all about the matchup. Michael Thomas has only scored three career TDs against Atlanta but he has averaged 8-98 over nine career meetings. The Taysom Hill dynamic may limit Thomas’ overall value, but Hill is at least targeting him (and only him). Only one team has allowed more yardage to opposing WRs, so fire up Thomas at this reduced price.

DFS Sleepers

Sterling Shepard, Giants @ SEA ($5300 DK, $5600 FD)
Sterling Shepard led the Giants’ receiving corps last week. When Colt McCoy took over, Shepard had half of Colt’s completed passes and 40% of Colt’s targets. Seattle has allowed a league-worst 220 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. Those yards will go to someone, my money is on Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate.

Michael Pittman, Colts @ HOU ($4900 DK, $5600 FD)
The Texans had allowed the league’s third-most WR scores before losing their top CB to a PED suspension. Michael Pittman busted last week, but he was still targeted nine times, so the Colts intend to get him the ball. Similar big WRs have destroyed Houston this year. Without Roby to cover him, Pittman should blow up as well.

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Darren Waller	$6,100	$7,000
T.J. Hockenson	$5,000	$6,100
Evan Engram	$4,900	$6,000
Hunter Henry	$4,800	$6,000
Dallas Goedert	$4,300	$6,200
Mike Gesicki	$4,200	$5,700
Jonnu Smith	$4,100	$5,700
Hayden Hurst	$4,000	$5,600
Zach Ertz	$3,900	$5,700
Austin Hooper	$3,800	$5,300
Jared Cook	$3,700	$5,500
Robert Tonyan	$3,700	$5,900
Jimmy Graham	$3,600	$5,400
Trey Burton	$3,500	$5,500
Kyle Rudolph	$3,400	$5,000
Tyler Higbee	$3,400	$5,100
Will Dissly	$3,300	$4,500
Gerald Everett	$3,200	$4,800
Irv Smith	$3,200	$4,900
Jacob Hollister	$3,000	$4,900
Tyler Eifert	$3,000	$4,700
Drew Sample	$2,900	$4,500
Jordan Akins	$2,900	$5,200
Darren Fells	$2,700	$4,800

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Darren Waller has a great spot here, but his price tag is considerably higher than everyone else. I’m spending a lot at WR, so I will probably look further down the money ladder for my TE. T.J. Hockenson and Dallas Goedert are the next best options. The pivots would be Mike Gesicki or Jonnu Smith. I like both Robert Tonyan and Trey Burton on DK, but their FD prices seem a tad high.  My favorite play outside of Hockenson is Kyle Rudolph. If Irv Smith misses another week, bump Rudolph up even higher. Smith could also be a punt option, as could Jordan Akins as the new #2 target for Deshaun Watson.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Darren Waller, Raiders @ NYJ ($6100 DK, $7000 FD)
The Jets have allowed a league-worst nine TE scores. This includes three in the last two weeks. Every quality TE to face them has posted a big game and even some mediocre TEs were goal-line active against them. Darren Waller trails only Travis Kelce in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Plus, he is fifth in TE scores. So, if you can afford to use him please do. I’d even consider the stack with Derek Carr and one of his WRs.

T.J. Hockenson, Lions @ CHI ($5000 DK, $6100 FD)
T.J. Hockenson has only one game this season where he has failed to top 50 receiving yards or score. Since Week 8, Hockenson ranks second at the position in targets and receiving yards. Meanwhile, Chicago has allowed the fourth-most TE touchdowns and the fourth-most TE receptions. They have also given up the sixth-most yards to the position. Last week, Green Bay’s TEs lambasted them to the tune of  8-88-2 and in Week 1, T.J. posted 5-56-1 against them.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles @ GB ($4300 DK, $6200 FD)
Zach Ertz may finally return this week. That should help the entirety of the Philly offense. It also may take a few looks away from Dallas Goedert. Still, in Weeks 1 and 2, when both were healthy, Dallas posted 12-131-1 on 17 targets. So Ertz’s presence doesn’t mean that we will lose Goedert. Plus, it is no guarantee that Ertz returns this week. Green Bay has been pretty solid against the position, but Indy scored twice against them with their TEs two weeks ago. Hopefully, Carson Wentz watched the footage of his former OC, Frank Reich’s offense against the pack. If so, we could see Wentz continue to pepper Dallas.

Hunter Henry, Chargers vs. NE ($4800 DK, $6000 FD)
New England is elite against TEs…or so it would appear. The few high-end TEs they have faced have produced solid lines (albeit scoreless). The reason their numbers look so great, however, is that they have faced lead TEs like Dan Arnold, Chris Herndon, Tyler Kroft, Albert Okwuegbunum, and old man Greg Olsen in half of their games. With Keenan Allen likely being shadowed, Justin Herbert will have to look towards his RBs and TEs. It won’t be a first, since Henry has six or more targets in ten games this year.

DFS Sleepers

Kyle Rudolph, Vikings vs. JAC ($3400 DK, $5000 FD) No team has allowed more TE touchdowns than Jacksonville. This includes allowing at least one score in seven different games. Meanwhile, Kyle Rudolph has the eighth-most receiving yards among TEs since Week 6. If Irv Smith misses another game, boost Kyle Rudolph even further. That said, even if Irv plays I like Kyle. In fact, I like both of them then.

Jordan Akins, Texans vs. IND ($2900 DK, $5200 FD) Someone will have to take on the 39% of Deshaun Watson’s targets vacated over the last three weeks by the suspension of Will Fuller, the injury to Randall Cobb, and the release of Kenny Stills. Keke Coutee will certainly get a boost as the new starter opposite Brandin Cooks, but Jordan Akins actually ranks second in targets, receptions, and receiving yards among the remaining skill position players, despite missing three games. Indy is very good on defense but at only $2.9K on DK, a touchdown alone equals nearly 3X.

[lawrence-newsletter]

We would have a smaller Week 12 slate thanks to our typical primetime games and the Thanksgiving day games. Fortunately, there are no bye weeks this week. We also currently get Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh moved to the Sunday player pool on DK. It remains to be seen if FD decides to add those players, but as of publishing they had not.

Historically, I’ve found that casual players tend to get their Thanksgiving weekends’ tied up with shopping and family and travel. That of course won’t be an issue this year, as shopping and travel and family have all been canceled by the ‘VID. It remains to be seen if we see some tourneys facing overlay on Sunday morning. Just don’t let the leftover turkey cause you to oversleep.

 

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

This rivalry game seems pretty one-sided for this season. Yes, Chicago has a very good defense. This is Aaron Rodgers in primetime though. Expecting him to not throw for 325-2 is outrageous. Even against the other solid defenses that he has faced, Rodgers has produced floor games that most QBs would envy. As for Chicago, we don’t even know who will be under center in this game. The team was in the catbird seat in the division earlier this season when Mitchell Trubisky was the starter. Still, his errant play got him benched for Nick Foles. Foles hasn’t done much better, but will the team bite the bullet and go back to Mitch? Making matters worse, both QBs are dealing with injuries. Rodgers will finish as either QB2 or QB3 on the slate (depending on Carson Wentz’s play), but whoever starts for Chicago will finish as the clear worst starter this week.

Perhaps surprisingly, Chicago is only middle-of-the-pack against opposing RBs. This means that barring a miraculous return from Chris Carson this week, Aaron Jones still gets to be RB2 on this slate. Unfortunately, there is not enough meat on the bone for Jamaal Williams to be considered a safe play. I’ll leave him for Showdown slate play. As for Chicago, David Montgomery should return this week. He hasn’t done a ton this year, but he does catch passes and Green Bay is atrocious at stopping the run. I actually like Montgomery as RB3 on this slate, and he makes a nice FLEX play. Ryan Nall did nill while Montgomery was out, so ignore him here.

Davante Adams is a stud. It doesn’t matter if he faces a good defense. He will finish as no worse than WR2 on this slate and he should be locked into your lineup card at WR1. If you do fade him based on his salary find a roster spot at WR3 for Allen Lazard or Marquez Valdes-Scantling. I wouldn’t go any deeper down the rabbit hole though. As for Chicago, Allen Robinson will face coverage from Jaire Alexander. It didn’t matter last season when he posted a pair of 100-yard games against Green Bay. I like him as the WR3 or WR4 here. He has fared well regardless of QB, so he is a sneaky roll it back option here if you also use Davante and Rodgers. Anthony Miller has seen more targets of late, but I can’t trust him as more than a WR3. Cordarelle Patterson could be a punt WR3 option, as he will get a few carries to spell the returning Montgomery. I like Darnell Mooney in dynasty, I just don’t see enough usage for him this week. He is no better than WR8 on this slate and likely lower than that.

Robert Tonyan has seen his usage decrease as Green Bay’s WRs have returned to health. Rodgers expects all of his weapons to be healthy this week, so I’m not jumping to start him, even in an ok matchup. He will be no better than TE2 on the slate. I’m definitely not reaching for Marcedes Lewis or Jace Sternberger. As for the Bears, Jimmy Graham was shut out by the Vikings. Yuck. Cole Kmet isn’t used enough to be considered here, but Graham could rebound since both QBs have targeted him regularly. Graham will still not be better than my fourth option here though. Amazingly, Chicago will be the DEF2 on this slate and Green Bay will be the DEF1.

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles

This game should have some fireworks. You have two offenses capable of putting up points going up against two defenses that have already phoned it in. The Seahawks are allowing a league-worst 355 passing yards per game – the next closest team is Atlanta at 313 passing yards per game. The Hawks are giving up even more yardage on the road. Carson Wentz has been maligned all season despite having AAF castoffs, converted TEs, and scat backs playing WR earlier in the year and despite having a piecemeal offensive line held together by duct tape and chewing gum. Despite all of this, Wentz still has multiple TDs in eight of ten games. What hasn’t been there is the yardage. That won’t be a problem this week though. Your QB2 will be either Wentz or Rodgers, don’t be surprised if it ends up being Wentz. As for Russell Wilson, he is second in passing yards. He leads the league in passing TDs and total TDs. He even ranks fourth among QBs in rushing yards. Oh yeah, he has also failed to tally three scores in only three games this year. That said, two of those three subpar games have come in the last two weeks. I’m not worried here at all though. Every talented QB to face Philly has done well. Their pass defense numbers look better on paper due to games against C.J. Beathard, Ben Dinucci, Dwayne Haskins, and Deep Fake Baker Mayfield. Wilson is a lock for three scores, 350 total yards, and the QB1 rank on this slate.

Philly is most thankful this holiday weekend to have Miles Sanders back. He is averaging just under five yards per touch in his two games back. He only has one score to show for it, but against this defense, he still nets the RB1 slot. Boston Scott is also in consideration at FLEX since Seattle has actually allowed multiple fantasy-relevant RBs in four of their last six games. The Seahawks will also be thankful to welcome back their top RB from injury. Chris Carson is projected to start Sunday after missing four weeks with a foot injury. Carson also averaged just under five YPC before his injury, but it remains to be seen if he is limited at all in his first game back. He may see a slightly reduced carry-load, with decent backups like Carlos Hyde and DeeJay Dallas able to spell him. His scoring shouldn’t suffer though as he is the back best suited for use at the stripe and he is averaging a score per game played this season. Plus, Philly has allowed a league fifth-worst ten RB rushing touchdowns. Assuming a mildly reduced role, I have him alongside David Montgomery at RB3. Either make a decent FLEX play. Hyde would be RB4 if Carson has a setback this week. Dallas and Travis Homer won’t see enough work to merit DFS usage.

Jalen Reagor has slowly begun to eat into the WR1 status of Travis Fulgham. I think deep down inside we all knew it was inevitable since talent does rise to the top. Fulgham does still have 12 targets over the last two games despite facing a pair of very good corners so all is not lost for him. Seattle has zero good cornerbacks, so both Reagor and Fulgham are in the WR2/3 conversation. Basically, every team has posted two or three high-end WR outputs against Seattle this season. I like both to approach 100 yards and score. Even Greg Ward deserves consideration as a punt WR3. Seattle can also bring it 3-deep, and Philadelphia has also allowed multiple fantasy-worthy WR starters in more than half of their games. This means that both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should be in the conversation with Davante Adams for WR1 on the slate. The Eagles have split their struggles between speedy receivers, slot possession guys, and big-bodied high-pointers all season, so there is no favorite play between them this week. In what should be a shootout, David Moore is also usable as a punt WR3.

Zach Ertz is not guaranteed to return this week, if he did I’d be hesitant to play him as anything more than a variance play for exposure in this game. I’m actually hoping he remains out as this will secure TE1 status for Dallas Goedert. Seattle has been so bad against WRs that opponents haven’t had to throw the ball to their TEs against them. Goedert is basically a bulky slot WR for Philly though. I love him this week as the likely third passing TD for Wentz. Due to his red-zone usage, Richard Rodgers is also in play as a punt TE if Ertz sits. Greg Olsen is done for the foreseeable future and possibly his career. This means we get the return to prominence of early 2019 fan-favorite Will Dissly and late 2019 fan-favorite Jacob Hollister. Either TE would approach 5-50 in this game if the other wasn’t there. The presence of both means they will probably split 6-60 making neither a great play. Outside of Goedert, there isn’t another sure thing TE on this slate, so feel free to try your luck with one of them. Each has the receiving chops to be successful. I like Dissly a bit more and wouldn’t be surprised if he catches a short TD. Neither defense is very good, but you could consider Seattle’s defense in hopes that Wentz continues his turnover fest, sack-filled season.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $8K for Patrick Mahomes. $9.5K for Dalvin Cook. $4.3K for Frank Gore. $7.8K for Tyreek Hill. $5.1K for Curtis Samuel. $4K for Hunter Renfrow. $3.1K for Irv Smith. $5K for Wayne Gallman (Assuming Devonta Freeman is out) or $5.1K for Salvon Ahmed (assuming Myles Gaskin remains out) at FLEX. $3.1K or $3.2K respectively for either the Browns’ or Giants’ defenses.

At FD: $9K for Mahomes. $11K for Cook. $5.2K for Gore. $5.9K for Samuel. $5.7K for Michael Pittman. $5.1K for Renfrow. $8K for Travis Kelce. $5.7K for Gallman at FLEX. $4.3K for the Giants’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Mahomes, Derek Carr at SF, Cook, Ahmed, Hill, Renfrow, Samuel, Kelce, and Gallman at FLEX.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Kyler Murray	$8,200	$9,100
Patrick Mahomes	$8,000	$9,000
Josh Allen	$7,600	$8,600
Justin Herbert	$7,200	$8,400
Lamar Jackson	$6,800	XXXX
Ben Roethlisberger	$6,600	XXXX
Tom Brady	$6,600	$7,900
Cam Newton	$6,400	$7,700
Teddy Bridgewater	$6,300	$7,000
Taysom Hill	$6,200	$7,300
Kirk Cousins	$6,100	$7,100
Philip Rivers	$6,100	$6,800
Jared Goff	$6,000	$7,000
Matt Ryan	$5,900	$7,600
Tua Tagovailoa	$5,900	$6,800
Ryan Tannehill	$5,800	$7,500
Derek Carr	$5,700	$7,100
Daniel Jones	$5,500	$7,200
P.J. Walker	$5,400	$6,500
Baker Mayfield	$5,300	$6,900
Nick Mullens	$5,200	$6,600
Drew Lock	$5,100	$6,700
Sam Darnold	$5,100	$6,500
Joe Flacco	$5,000	$6,500
Mike Glennon	$4,600	$6,200
Brandon Allen	XXXX	$6,000

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are the clear top options this week. Choosing one of them will put you light years ahead of the competition. Tom Brady would be the only pivot that I’d seriously consider. Teddy Bridgewater is still not a sure-thing starter. If he gets the start, it is a revenge game. Derek Carr and Daniel Jones are both a great value option. I also don’t mind Matt Ryan on DK. The only punt play that I would consider is P.J. Walker if Bridgewater sits.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs @ TB ($8000 DK, $9000 FD)
Last week, Jared Goff proved the all too obvious truth that Tampa Bay is bad against the pass. Now they have to deal with Patrick Mahomes in a likely shootout. Mahomes will throw for at least three TDs as KC realizes that they cannot move the ball on the ground against the very strong Buccaneers’ run defense.

Josh Allen, Bills vs. LAC ($7600 DK, $8600 FD)
The Chargers aren’t giving up a ton of yardage to opposing QBs but they have allowed the seventh-most passing TDs and the fourth-most total TDs to the position. Meanwhile, Josh Allen has the third-most rushing TDs among all QBs and only seven other QBs have more passing TDs than him. Justin Herbert has the tools and weapons to keep this game somewhat competitive, which should force Buffalo to keep their foot on the accelerator.

Tom Brady, Buccaneers vs. KC ($6600 DK, $7900 FD)
We know Kansas City will be throwing all game. Fortunately, Tom Brady also has the skills and weapons to stay competitive. Unlike Herbert above, Brady isn’t traveling west to east for an early game. Brady also has three elite-level weapons compared to Herbert who has Keenan Allen and a couple of good but not great secondary options. This game will be high-scoring and while the rest of the pool is on Mahomes, Brady provides exposure to the game for less cost.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals @ NE ($8200 DK, $9100 FD)
Kyler Murray has the combination of running and passing skills that everyone expected Lamar Jackson to feature this year. New England has some solid cornerbacks and Murray may be limited slightly by his shoulder, but that shouldn’t completely take you off of him. Murray can score via his feet or arm from any point on the field. I also highly doubt that Kliff Kingsbury will let him play this week if the injury is a legit concern. I’m going to pass on pairing him with DeAndre Hopkins who will likely see a Stephon Gilmore shadow, but Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Andy Isabella, and the RBs should give him enough potential value.

DFS Sleepers

Derek Carr, Raiders @ ATL ($5700 DK, $7100 FD)
Atlanta has allowed the second-most passing yards, the second-most passing TDs, and the most rushing TDs to opposing QBs. Derek Carr has multiple touchdowns in seven of ten games and he is distributing the ball to a huge selection of receiving options (all of whom are finally healthy). I particularly like pairing Carr with his tight end Darren Waller or his possession receiver Hunter Renfrow.

Daniel Jones, Giants @ CIN ($5500 DK, $7200 FD)
Cincinnati has allowed 15 passing touchdowns over their last five games. Now that they no longer have their franchise QB, the likelihood that the team might start to phone it in grows. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones has all of his passing weapons (except Saquan Barkley) healthy and on the field for basically the first time in his career. It’s not quite as safe of a value as Carr, but barring something crazy with the weather I like Jones to hit 3x.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Dalvin Cook	$9,500	$11,000
Christian McCaffrey	$9,200	$10,000
Alvin Kamara	$8,200	$8,600
Derrick Henry	$7,900	$8,300
Josh Jacobs	$7,200	$8,000
Nick Chubb	$7,100	$8,400
Mike Davis	$6,900	$7,200
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	$6,400	$6,700
James Robinson	$6,300	$7,400
James Conner	$6,200	XXXX
Austin Ekeler	$6,100	$6,500
Ronald Jones	$6,100	$6,500
Jonathan Taylor	$5,900	$6,400
Latavius Murray	$5,900	$5,000
Damien Harris	$5,800	$6,000
Kalen Ballage	$5,800	$5,500
Giovani Bernard	$5,700	$6,100
Myles Gaskin	$5,700	$5,600
Kareem Hunt	$5,600	$6,600
Raheem Mostert	$5,600	$7,000
J.K. Dobbins	$5,500	XXXX
Todd Gurley	$5,500	$6,900
Kenyan Drake	$5,400	$6,200
Chase Edmonds	$5,300	$5,800
Gus Edwards	$5,200	XXXX
Melvin Gordon	$5,200	$6,800
Darrell Henderson	$5,100	$5,900
Salvon Ahmed	$5,100	$5,800
Wayne Gallman	$5,000	$5,700
Leonard Fournette	$4,900	$5,600
Zack Moss	$4,800	$5,600
Malcolm Brown	$4,700	$5,500
Devonta Freeman	$4,600	$5,000
Nyheim Hines	$4,600	$5,700
James White	$4,500	$5,400
Le’Veon Bell	$4,500	$5,600
Mark Ingram	$4,400	XXXX
Phillip Lindsay	$4,400	$5,300
Frank Gore	$4,300	$5,200
Cam Akers	$4,200	$5,500
Devin SIngletary	$4,200	$5,500
Brian Hill	$4,000	$5,100
Samaje Perine	$4,000	$4,800

Running Back

Weekly strategy –  FD has pushed Dalvin Cook over the $11K figure. That is crazy. It is also still a safe 3x target for Dalvin. He remains the safest big-dollar play on the slate. Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs are the only clear pivots anywhere near this price range. Giovani Bernard (if he plays) and Todd Gurley are my top RB2 options. If I don’t use one of them, I will go with the Miami starter, the Giants’ starter, James White, Nyheim Hines, or Frank Gore.  I will also use one of those five at the FLEX position. If Bernard does not play, Samaje Perine could have some punt appeal.

Fantasy Four Pack

Dalvin Cook, Vikings vs. CAR ($9500 DK, $11000 FD)
Even at $11K, Dalvin Cook is safe to hit 3x value. Carolina has been one of the historically worst run defenses for approaching two seasons now. Since the start of 2019, Carolina is allowing an average of just under 150 total yards per game and just over 1.5 total TDs per game to opposing RBs. Cook will blow by both of those benchmarks.

Nick Chubb, Browns @ JAX ($7100 DK, $8400 FD)
Nick Chubb cannot truly be considered a pivot when his price is $2.5K less than Dalvin. Still, he is the next highest-priced player who was most likely to hit 3x. Jacksonville is allowing just under 140 total yards per game to opposing RBs. Chubb will split touches with Kareem Hunt, but Chubb is averaging 6.2 yards per carry since his return from injury.

Josh Jacobs, Raiders @ ATL ($7200 DK, $8000 FD)
Josh Jacobs gets to face an Atlanta defense that has been brutal against the pass, but actually pretty solid against the run. Still, Jacobs has been scoring at will of late and Vegas is not afraid to give him 25+ touches in a game.

Alvin Kamara, Saints @ DEN ($8200 DK, $8600 FD)
The presence of Taysom Hill under the center produces a potential vulture at the stripe for Alvin Kamara. Even with a reduced number of touches in the last few weeks, Kamara has five scores over his last three games. Taysom will find him in the passing game eventually. Over the last four weeks, Denver has allowed the second-most total yards and total TDs to the position. New Orleans should have a big lead this week, so expect Alvin and his running mate Latavius Murray to get a lot of clock management carries in the second half.

DFS Sleepers

Todd Gurley, Falcons vs. LV ($5500 DK, $6900 FD)
All Todd Gurley does is score TDs. This is essential to know because only two teams have allowed more RB scores. Gurley (as always it seems) is nursing a knee injury, so watch his status. If he cannot go, Brian Hill could be a slate-breaker.

Wayne Gallman, Giants @ CIN ($5000 DK, $5700 FD)
If you told me at the start of the year that Wayne Gallman would be on an active NFL roster at this point in the season, I would’ve laughed. Now, not only is he the starter for the Giants. He is poised for a huge performance. Cincy has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing RBs and more than 5.2 YPC. Obviously, keep an eye on Devonta Freeman’s practice status. His ankle injury return will be soon. If he plays this week it takes away a lot of Gallman’s luster.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
DeAndre Hopkins	$8,100	$8,500
Keenan Allen	$8,000	$8,200
Tyreek Hill	$7,800	$8,600
Stefon Diggs	$7,600	$7,900
Michael Thomas	$7,400	$7,700
Calvin Ridley	$7,100	$8,100
Adam Thielen	$6,800	$7,800
A.J. Brown	$6,700	$7,500
Julio Jones	$6,500	$8,000
Cooper Kupp	$6,400	$6,700
Justin Jefferson	$6,300	$7,000
Diontae Johnson	$6,200	XXXX
DJ Moore	$6,200	$7,300
Chase Claypool	$6,100	XXXX
Mike Evans	$6,100	$7,100
Robby Anderson	$6,100	$6,400
Chris Godwin	$6,000	$7,400
DeVante Parker	$5,900	$6,500
JuJu Smith-Schuster	$5,900	XXXX
Christian Kirk	$5,800	$6,100
Robert Woods	$5,800	$6,800
Antonio Brown	$5,700	$6,500
Brandon Aiyuk	$5,600	$6,600
Cole Beasley	$5,500	$5,400
Deebo Samuel	$5,400	$6,000
Jamison Crowder	$5,400	$6,300
Jakobi Meyers	$5,300	$5,800
DJ Chark	$5,200	$6,100
Jarvis Landry	$5,200	$5,700
Curtis Samuel	$5,100	$5,900
Jerry Jeudy	$5,100	$5,700
Sterling Shepard	$5,100	$5,400
Michael Pittman	$5,000	$5,700
Mike WIlliams	$5,000	$6,100
Tyler Boyd	$5,000	$6,900
Corey Davis	$4,900	$6,000
Darius Slayton	$4,900	$5,900
Nelson Agholor	$4,900	$5,900
Tim Patrick	$4,900	$5,500
Emmanuel Sanders	$4,800	$5,600
John Brown	$4,800	$5,700
Russell Gage	$4,800	$5,200
Marquise Brown	$4,700	XXXX
Rashard Higgins	$4,700	$5,500
Sammy Watkins	$4,700	$5,600
Tee Higgins	$4,700	$6,200
Henry Ruggs	$4,300	$5,500
Josh Reynolds	$4,300	$5,800
Willie Snead	$4,300	XXXX
Breshad Perriman	$4,200	$5,900
Mecole Hardman	$4,200	$5,500
Damiere Byrd	$4,100	$5,400
Zach Pascal	$4,100	$5,000
Hunter Renfrow	$4,000	$5,100
Kendrick Bourne	$4,000	$5,200
T.Y. Hilton	$3,900	$5,400
Larry Fitzgerald	$3,800	$5,100
Demarcus Robinson	$3,700	$5,300
Jakeem Grant	$3,700	$4,800
A.J. Green	$3,600	$5,300
Dez Bryant	$3,600	XXXX
Keelan Cole	$3,600	$5,300
Denzel Mims	$3,500	$5.600
Golden Tate	$3,500	$5,100
KJ Hamler	$3,500	$5.100

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Up top you are going to want at least one of Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, or Michael Thomas. Fitting two of them under the cap will be next to impossible, but feel free to try. Both Calvin Ridley and Keenan Allen can be lesser-owned pivots. Any of the Panthers’ WRs makes a nice WR2. I am leaning Curtis Samuel. I also like Justin Jefferson in that same game and Chris Godwin on DK. For WR3, I am leaning towards one of the Raiders, one of the Giants, one of the Colts, or maybe Emmanuel Sanders in a revenge game. Hunter Renfrow and Michael Pittman are my favorite twosome from that group.

Fantasy Four Pack

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs @ TB ($7800 DK, $8600 FD)
Running the ball against the Buccaneers is a mistake. It isn’t like KC likes to run the ball anyways. It helps that Tampa has an offense that can keep this game competitive. That means that KC won’t be encouraged to run out the clock in the second half. We should get a full game of four-wide for Mahomes and Company. That should equate to a huge game fromt he best stack of the week Mahomes-Tyreek Hill-Travis Kelce. Sammy Watkins may be back healthy this week too and he could be a sneaky way to get access to this game while fading Hill.

Michael Thomas, Saints @ DEN ($7400 DK, $7700 FD)
So, Apparently Taysom Hill likes targeting Michael Thomas. I mean that sort of usage was what I expected with Drew Brees under center. The last four weeks, Denver has allowed the fourth-most WR touchdowns. Three of those scores went to opposing WR1s. I expect Emmanuel Sanders to have a good game as well since this si a revenge game for him.

Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. LAC ($7600 DK, $7900 FD)
WR1s have eaten all season versus the Chargers thanks to the depleted secondary. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs has 85 yards and/or a touchdown in every game but one. That sort of consistentcy is what you dream of in DFS.

Calvin Ridley, Falcons vs. LV ($7100 DK, $8100 FD)
Vegas’ pass defense is better than we ever expected. They still are allowing a fair amount of points to opponents WR1s. It ultimately comes down to whether or not Julio Jones is limited or out this week. I’m not sure that Atlanta can support two big performers against this defense, but whoever ends up being the #1 this week should have a solid game. Right now that is trending towards being Calvin Ridley. He is used to being the center of attention, drawing seven or more targets in seven of nine games this year.

DFS Sleepers

Curtis Samuel, Panthers @ MIN ($5100 DK, $5900 FD)
Minnesota’s pass defense has been deservingly maligned all year. Simply put, they are young and mistake-prone. They will grow into their clothes over time, but for now when they battle three-deep WR corps, they have no prayer. Curtis Samuel has been very active for Carolina, both catching the ball and acting as a C-O-P back to both Christian McCaffrey and Mike Davis. His swiss-army nature has helped him net five scores over his last five games. Another is coming here.

Michael Pittman, Colts vs. TEN ($5000 DK, $5700 FD)
Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing WRs. They have especially struggled with big-bodied WRs like Michael Pittman. One of the bigger games they have allowed recently went to Pittman back in Week 10 as part of a 7-101 receiving line, where he also added 21 yards on the ground.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Travis Kelce	$7,000	$8,000
Darren Waller	$6,000	$7,100
Mark Andrews	$5,200	XXXX
Hunter Henry	$4,800	$5,900
Evan Engram	$4,500	$5,600
Rob Gronkowski	$4,400	$6,200
Mike Gesicki	$4,300	$5,600
Noah Fant	$4,200	$5,700
Eric Ebron	$4,100	XXXX
Jonnu Smith	$4,100	$6,000
Hayden Hurst	$3,900	$5,500
Austin Hooper	$3,800	$5,100
Tyler Higbee	$3,700	$5,300
Jordan Reed	$3,600	$5,000
Jared Cook	$3,500	$5,800
Gerald Everett	$3,300	$4,700
Trey Burton	$3,200	$5,400
Irv Smith	$3,100	$5,200
Ross Dwelley	$2,900	$5,000
Kyle Rudolph	$2,800	$4,600

Tight End

Weekly strategy – We finally have the week where you want to spend up at TE. Travis Kelce and Darren Waller are the two highest-priced and they are both primed to produce the best numbers of the week at the position by a lot. The second-tier options have some upside, but none truly feels safe. I’d say if you don’t go with one of the big two, I’d just punt down to Trey Burton or Irv Smith (especially if Adam Thielen is out).

Fantasy Four Pack

Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ TB ($7000 DK, $8000 FD)
Travis Kelce leads the TE position in every meaningful fantasy category. Even if you just look at the last four weeks (which includes Kelce’s bye week), Kelce leads in each of those categories. Tampa has allowed the sixth-most TE touchdowns despite facing only a couple of high-end options there. Kelce will approach

Darren Waller, Raiders @ ATL ($6000 DK, $7000 FD)
Darren Waller is second to Kelce in receptions, targets, and receiving yards, and he trails only four TEs in TDs. There is a decent option for using both of them this week. Atlanta has allowed the most TE scores, the second-most TE receiving yards, and the fourth-most TE receptions

Evan Engram, Giants @ CIN ($4500 DK, $5600 FD)
Prior to Week 10’s stinker, Evan Engram had 29 targets over his previous three games. That actually led all TEs over the span of Weeks 7-9. If you include his rushing yards, he would’ve finished third among all TEs during that span. Cincy has played better of late, but they have given up some big performances early in the year to similar-level TEs like Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews, and Trey Burton.

Hunter Henry, Chargers @ BUF ($4800 DK, $5900 FD)
No team has allowed more receptions or receiving yards to opposing TEs. They also have allowed the sixth-most TDs to the position. Hunter Henry has scored in back-to-back games and he has six or more targets in all but two games. With Tre’Davious White shutting down one of the WRs, Justin Herbert will have to lean even more on his big tight end.

DFS Sleepers

Mike Gesicki, Dolphins @ NYJ ($4300 DK, $5600 FD)
Mike Gesicki started the season on an upward trajectory with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, but once Tua Tagovailoa took over his targets took a tumble. He still isn’t seeing a ton of looks, but he has topped 40 yards receiving in three straight games. Tua will be back under center Sunday so hopefully, this new trend continues. A Gesicki TD is also in play as New York ranks fourth-worst in terms of TE scores allowed, this includes a pair of scores to Gesicki’s running mates (Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe) back in Week 6.

Irv Smith, Vikings vs. CAR ($3100 DK, $5200 FD)
Currently, Adam Thielen is questionable to play this week due to COVID. If Thielen misses the game both Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith will act as option B in the Vikings’ passing game. Irv is actually built like a large WR, so he may even be on the field in three WR sets. You can move the ball on the Panthers with TEs, they have allowed the second-most receptions and the third-most receiving yards to the position.

[lawrence-newsletter]

We continue forward deeper into the pandemic-fueled 2020 season. Injuries and illness have decimated the QB and TE positions. We are on RB3 and RB4 for some teams right now. WR is really the only position that hasn’t been pummeled this season. Of course, we also have several NFL teams that have decided to punt the WR position as well. This is good news for DFS players because we can get WR1 production at WR3 prices by choosing the top options from teams that otherwise are devoid of talent. I mean they have to throw it to someone right. With mediocre crap filling up the positions, I’d rather spend up for the true talent there and backfill with the values at the WR spot – just seek out the volume plays. With this being the last major bye week of the year and with two premiere offenses playing Thursday night and three other higher-end offenses playing in the Primetime Slate, we need to find value where we can.

 

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs will be seeking to avenge their sole loss of the year to the Raiders this week. Las Vegas simply out-lasted them in the earlier contest. It was amazing because Kansas City has a much better offense than Vegas. Patrick Mahomes has five games this season with three or more TDs. One of those was the game against Vegas. At that point, Kansas City actually was still attempting to run the ball in addition to passing.  Now the Chiefs are just going four-wide on every down and we see Mahomes throw for nearly 800 yards and nine passing scores in just the last two weeks. This is despite facing back-to-back rotten run defenses. The Raiders’ run defense may be worse than both of the last two opponents, but if the Chiefs’ RBs aren’t even going to be on the field as anything more than pass-blockers, then I’m all-in on Mahomes having another insane game. He is easily the QB1 here. As for the Raiders, Derek Carr is trending the wrong way since the earlier meeting against the Chiefs. He has 430 passing yards and three touchdowns TOTAL over the last three games. Compare that with the 347-3 he posted in just the Chiefs’ game. I think he is no safer this week than QB3, and that is purely speculating that he can keep this one close.

As I mentioned above, Kansas City has basically abandoned the run in their last two games. They have 92 pass attempts compared to only 31 run attempts. Even in that earlier game, the spread was just a hair above 2-1. What this means is that even though the Raiders are a cake matchup for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell, you cannot start either of them as anything higher than a FLEX. I’m honestly not even sure which one I’d recommend as a dart throw here. It would probably be Helaire just because he is seeing more targets. Josh Jacobs had a very solid day in the earlier meeting. He scored twice (one of three multi-score weeks for him this season). He also watched Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard siphon off a lot of touches. Richard was hurt last week, so perhaps Jacobs doesn’t get vultured quite as much this week. He still has to deal with Booker, who is seeing more and more snaps each week. This slate features four split backfields, so any surety is a must-start. That makes Jacobs RB1 here. If Booker continues his change of pace role, I can safely recommend him as a FLEX option. I’m just scared that the Chiefs jump out early and severely limit the rushing attempts for Vegas this time around. Richard will be no better than the third-option here so he should be avoided in any non-Showdown format, and even then he might not be play-worthy.

As is standard, Sammy Watkins had a huge Week 1, and then he disappeared never to be seen again. Word is he may return this week, but we’ve heard that one before. In his absence, Demarcus Robinson has been a very solid option by scoring and/or topping 60 receiving yards in three of the last four games. I love him this week as a cheap alternative to the expensive Tyreek Hill. Hill is still the WR1 on this slate, but his price may be prohibitive. Still, he has five touchdowns over the last three weeks so don’t ignore him completely. Mecole Hardman has also seen an uptick in usage with Watkins out. His speed puts him in play as a WR3, even if Watkins returns. The only one hurt by Watkins returning would be Robinson. If Sammy plays, I could see using Robinson as no more than a WR3. Without Watkins, both Hardman and Robinson could be WR2 choices. As for Sammy, I don’t trust Watkins to do anything even if he does play, so just leave him on the bench. Bryan Pringle is always a favorite of mine in Showdown slates, but he is not in play here. The Raiders will likely have to throw the ball to stay in this one. It helps that all five of Carr’s wide receivers should be able to suit up for this game. Of course, this multi-faceted attack limits their individual appeal. Brian Edwards returned and posted a single catch, but his presence ate into Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow’s workload. Agholor is the safest of that threesome since he remains the primary deep threat for Carr. Henry Ruggs has also been involved deep, dropping a likely long touchdown last week. Still, he hasn’t seen more than four targets since Week 1. You’ll want to run it back with one of these guys, but the choice is difficult. Whichever one you choose will be no more than your WR3. I’d go with Ruggs since he led the team in WR snaps last week and since he scored in the earlier meeting. Agholor would be my second choice and I’ll leave Edwards, Renfrow, and Zay Jones off my lineup cards.

Travis Kelce leads all TEs in every category. He scored and topped 100 yards in their earlier meeting and he is without a doubt the TE1 here. Darren Waller will be a little bit cheaper and despite all of the returning WRs, Waller is still getting a large number of targets. The Chiefs are the toughest of the four teams in terms of shutting down opposing TEs. That said, one of the scores they gave up earlier this year was to Waller. He is more reliable than the Monday night TEs, even though their matchups are easier. I’ll give him the TE2 role here and a possible FLEX assignment if you go Double-TE. Despite Carr’s recent lack of production, he remains one of the best QBs in the league in regards to not turning the ball over. Still, I’ll give Kansas City the DEF2 ranking here just a smidge over Tampa Bay.

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jared Goff has tended to play up or down to his competition level for his entire career. He actually had a great passing game last week, but he ceded all of the TDs to the running game. It was the fourth time this year and the second-straight game in which he has thrown for zero or one TD. Running against Tampa Bay is virtually impossible, so perhaps this week Goff gets it done through the air. I still have him only a hair above Carr and Brady as QB2, with all three several lengths behind Mahomes. As for the Rams, their pass defense is legit. They just took out MVP candidate Russell Wilson. Tom Brady is the GOAT, but this week he is no better than QB3 out of this group of four. Brady just needs to be happy that he is not facing the Rams in LA, where they have given up only one passing TD all season.

The Rams have played musical running backs all season. None will do anything on the ground against this defense. Their best hope is that Malcolm Brown gets a TD plunge. As impossible as it is to run against the Rams, they are allowing the most receptions to the RB position. Cam Akers has been unused in the passing game, so he is firmly planted on your bench. Darrell Henderson has the most talent of any of the three of them, but he had the fewest yards and usage of any of them last week. He also trails Brown on the year in both targets and receptions. All of this adds up to Brown being the best play of the three, yet no more than RB3 overall on the slate. Ronald Jones fumbled early last week and Twitter exploded expecting him to not play again until at least Week 13. Instead, Jones returned to the game, had a 98-yard TD run, and finished with an absurd 198 total yards. Now before you go saying “I told ya so” in regards to Jones, remember this was against a Carolina Panthers’ team that hasn’t shut down an RB-room since nearly 2017. Yes, Jones is the RB2 on this slate, but it is less due to his talent, and more due to the lack of defined RB roles on the other teams. Leonard Fournette should still see a few passes out of the backfield, but barring multiple early fumbles from Jones, he is now relegated to C-O-P status. With so many other possible FLEX plays this week (Booker, Brown, the TEs), I don’t even love him there.

It is much easier to beat Tampa Bay through the air. This means that Jared Goff should throw the ball early and often. Cooper Kupp is my favorite play of his WRs since the Bucs have had issues with possession and slot WRs. He should be the WR2 on this slate, and I will play him as WR1 in any lineup that I don’t use Tyreek Hill. Robert Woods has actually been out-targeted by Josh Reynolds the last three games. Woods still has a couple of scores over that stretch thanks to his running attempts. This week, he gets WR2 consideration, but only if you are not using Kupp. Reynolds needs to be considered as the cheap WR3 option if you don’t use one of the Raiders. I can actually see using both him and Kupp in the same stack with Goff. Van Jefferson may be good in the future, but for now, he will need an injury to be relevant. I’ll leave him for Showdown slates only. The Buccaneers have three legitimate candidates for WR1 on any given week. This week, at least one of them will be locked down by Jalen Ramsey. My money is on Ramsey shadowing the most talented option that being Chris Godwin. Don’t be surprised, however, if Mike Evans becomes the shadow target of Ramsey. Due to the matchup, I don’t like either as more than a WR2 this week, and considering their prices, I don’t even really like that. Whichever one avoids Ramsey will have some value, the other one is unusable. The one WR I like here is Antonio Brown. His possession role (particularly if he lines up in the slot this week) is the best choice of the threesome. Since the signing of Brown, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson have become afterthoughts in this offense. Do not waste your time or roster slots on either of them.

Neither defense is very good against opposing TEs. Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate may have some value since Brady will likely be forced to look inside with his passes. Still, with so many weapons and such a flatlined ceiling for Brady, I cannot predict big yardage for either of them. In both cases, you are simply begging for the TD. Gronk is TE4 here and Brate is TE6. I’m not going to use either of them unless my salary cap funds are completely depleted. Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett have alternated solid games all season. Higbee appears to be fully recovered from his earlier injury, so perhaps his big Week 10 game is the trend in the right direction for him. I like Higbee as no worse than TE3 here, and Everett at TE5 against a defense that has allowed six TE scores already this season. Either would be an interesting Double-TE play, and both will save you tremendously cost-wise compared to Kelce and Waller if you use them at your primary TE slot. The Rams and Bucs are both options at defense this week. I like the Rams a slight bit more, but neither is awful.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $6.7K for Ben Roethlisberger. $9.2K for Alvin Kamara. $5.8K for Antonio Gibson. $6.4K or less for your choice of JuJu Smith-Schuster or Diontae Johnson. $6.1K for Jamison Crowder. $4.3K for Jalen Reagor. $3.3K for Logan Thomas. $5.7K for Damien Harris or less for one of the Colts’ RBs at FLEX. $2.3K for the Falcons’ defense.

At FD: $8K for Roethlisberger. $9.7K for Kamara. $6.5K for Gibson. $6.4K for Diontae. $6.6K for Crowder. $4.6K for Jakeem Grant. $4.5K for Taysom Hill. $10.5K for Dalvin Cook at FLEX. $3.2K for the Falcons’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Roethlisberger, Carson Wentz at SF, D’Andre Swift, Gibson, Diontae, Travis Fulgham, Breshad Perriman, Travis Kelce, and Cook at FLEX.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Lamar Jackson	$7,300	$8,400
Aaron Rodgers	$7,000	$9,000
Justin Herbert	$6,800	$8,500
Ben Roethlisberger	$6,700	$8,000
Deshaun Watson	$6,500	$7,700
Matt Ryan	$6,300	$7,800
Cam Newton	$6,200	$7,600
Kirk Cousins	$6,200	$7,100
Ryan Tannehill	$6,100	$7,300
Matthew Stafford	$6,000	$7,500
Jameis Winston	$5,900	$7,200
Tua Tagovailoa	$5,800	$6,700
Carson Wentz	$5,700	$7,400
Philip Rivers	$5,600	$7,000
Joe Burrow	$5,500	$7,700
Baker Mayfield	$5,400	$7,000
Drew Lock	$5,400	$6,800
Alex Smith	$5,300	$6,600
Andy Dalton	$5,300	$6,900
Garrett Gilbert	$5,200	$6,500
Jake Luton	$5,000	$6,500
Joe Flacco	$5,000	$6,100
P.J. Walker	$4,800	$6,500
Taysom Hill	$4,800	XXXX
Will Grier	$4,600	$6,000

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Ben Roethlisberger is really the only high-priced option I know will hit 3X value. Lamar Jackson may on DK, but I’m not confident about him on FD. Justin Herbert will be over-owned against the Jets and the Chargers may just lean on their plethora of RBs. Matt Ryan is my likely pivot. He should reach 3X as well if the game script plays out as I expect.  Jameis Winston could have a solid day and I feel better about his DK price than his FD price. The same goes for Carson Wentz. This might be the week to save some money at the position and punt with Alex Smith or even Mr. Elite Joe Flacco.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers @ JAX ($6700 DK, $8000 FD)
Last week, I was concerned that Aaron Rodgers might not meet value because Aaron Jones would run the ball all game against these Jaguars. I was wrong there. I’m not concerned about the Steelers’ running game right now, because they have abandoned it. Much like the Chiefs, Pittsburgh was running 5-Wide sets up 22 points midway through the fourth quarter. Apparently, they believe to beat the Chiefs they have to perform on offense as the Chiefs would. Ben Roethlisberger has no shortage of stud weapons to throw to. All three of his top WRs will score this week, and I like Ebron to nab a TD as well. We learned last week that Jake Luton could stay competitive in bad weather, but that was against the subpar and short-handed Packers’ defense. Luton stands no chance against Pittsburgh. Normally, that would scare me off of the QB and onto Conner, but after seeing the Steelers’ strategy the last two weeks, that fear has disappeared.

Matt Ryan, Falcons @ NO ($6300 DK, $7800 FD)
Matt Ryan has multiple passing TDs in eight of his last ten games against the Saints. He also has topped 300 passing yards in 12 of 23 career meetings with them. The only negative trend Ryan has against New Orleans is that he is getting sacked far too frequently against them (19 times in his last four games). Assuming he isn’t knocked out of this game, Ryan and Jameis Winston should put up a shootout with all of their combined weapons. I like both of them this week, but know that Winston is more likely to throw a few INTs. Either way, lock in Ryan for 300+ yards and 2-3 passing scores.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs. TEN ($7300 DK, $8400 FD)
Tennessee is rotten on pass defense. Only five teams have allowed more passing yards and only two teams have allowed more passing TDs. Unfortunately for Lamar Jackson, throwing the ball hasn’t been his strong suit this season. He has one game with more than 250 passing yards this season, that was way back in Week 1. The two running QBs that Tennessee has faced this season (Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson) did little on the ground against the Titans. This was less because Tennessee shut them down on the ground, and more because they were both able to throw the ball at will. Jackson’s weapons are nowhere near on par with the WRs that Allen and Watson can throw out there, so the 250 mark seems like a passing ceiling for Jackson. We can also say that Jackson is a better ball carrier than either Allen or Watson, so we still like him to produce at least a floor rushing game of 55-1. All in, he should finish as one of the top-3 QBs in points this week, but I don’t feel as confident about him as I do some of the others.

Justin Herbert, Chargers vs. NYJ ($6800 DK, $8500 FD)
I have already made the outlandish claim on our weekly office pool picks that the Jets are going to upset the Chargers this week. In order for this to happen, Joe Flacco will have to throw the ball frequently to his growing collection of WRs. If he is throwing the ball a lot, then Justin Herbert will actually need to throw it a lot too. This would be a perfect storm to keep the Chargers from just running the ball down New York’s throat. The Jets have allowed huge fantasy points to each of the last five QBs they have faced. Including some big yardage on the ground. Since Week 4, Herbert is tied for the league lead in passing TDs and he has a couple of rushing scores as well. I loathe paying this much for a rookie QB on FD, but at DK he should easily hit the 3X mark. It all comes down to the Chargers not abandoning the pass here.

DFS Sleepers

Alex Smith, Football Team vs. CIN ($5300 DK, $6600 FD)
Over the last two weeks, no QB has thrown for more yards than Alex Smith. Yes, it is a small sample size and yes, it was against two horrible pass defenses. Cincy isn’t much better. They have allowed 14 passing TDs over their last four games. So, I trust that Smith will not only top 300 yards once again but also finally reach that two-TD plateau.

Joe Flacco, Jets @ LAC ($5000 DK, $6100 FD)
Up above, I discuss what I expect to happen between the Chargers and Jets. Joe Flacco, quietly, has a dearth of finally healthy WRs to throw to. The Chargers have allowed multiple TDs to seven of the nine QBs they have faced, and each of the last six they have faced. The Jets have zero running game, so they will have to lean on Flacco. Normally that would suck, but with Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder to throw to, it sucks a little less. Heck, if we had a healthy Sam Darnold this week, he might finish as a top-5 QB. Flacco won’t reach those heights, but 275-2/3 is possible.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey	$9,400	$10,000
Alvin Kamara	$9,200	$9,700
Dalvin Cook	$9,000	$10,500
Derrick Henry	$8,000	$8,200
Aaron Jones	$7,200	$8,200
Nick Chubb	$7,000	$8,100
Miles Sanders	$6,900	$7,700
Mike Davis	$6,800	$7,400
Kareem Hunt	$6,700	$6,700
James Conner	$6,600	$7,000
Ezekiel Elliott	$6,500	$8,000
D’Andre Swift	$6,400	$6,900
James Robinson	$6,400	$7,200
Joe Mixon	$6,300	$7,500
Latavius Murray	$5,900	$5,000
Todd Gurley	$5,900	$6,700
Antonio Gibson	$5,800	$6,500
Jonathan Taylor	$5,800	$5,700
Damien Harris	$5,700	$5,800
Jamaal WIlliams	$5,700	$5,300
Boston Scott	$5,600	$5,200
Kalen Ballage	$5,600	$5,800
Giovani Bernard	$5,500	$6,300
Duke Johnson	$5,400	$6,000
J.D. McKissic	$5,200	$5,600
Nyheim Hines	$5,200	$6,100
David Johnson	$5,100	$6,200
J.K. Dobbins	$5,100	$5,500
Melvin Gordon	$5,100	$6,400
Mark Ingram	$5,000	$5,900
Salvon Ahmed	$4,800	$5,600
Rex Burkhead	$4,600	$5,900
Gus Edwards	$4,500	$5,500
Phillip Lindsay	$4,500	$5,400
La’Mical Perine	$4,400	$5,400
James White	$4,200	$5,300
Frank Gore	$4,100	$5,000
Adrian Peterson	$4,000	$5,100
Brian Hill	$4,000	$5,000
Jordan Wilkins	$4,000	$5,300
Joshua Kelley	$4,000	$5,200

Running Back

Weekly strategy –  FD is being miserly this week with huge salaries all around. Three RBs near or above $10K??? Of course, one of them is almost assuredly out. The other two actually have smash spots. There is seriously no easy way to fit both Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook into your lineup without seriously punting elsewhere. That said, with Flacco and Wentz and Smith as cheaper QB options that you can stack with cheaper WRs, you can probably do it. At least use one of them. Mike Davis and D’Andre Swift are my favorite pivot plays. Neither will have high ownership percentages. Looking a little cheaper, Antonio Gibson is also primed for a huge game. If you have a failure to trust a stack with Alex Smith and a WR, perhaps you can use Gibson as RB2 to save some money. Both Damien Harris and his running mate Rex Burkhead could be cheap RB2 options as well. Punt options this week include Salvon Ahmed, J.D. McKissic, Melvin Gordon, and the Colts’ RBs.

Fantasy Four Pack

Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. ATL ($9200 DK, $9700 FD)
Alvin Kamara has never scored against Atlanta. That seems impossible but it is true. That will change this week as the Saints do everything possible to protect Jameis Winston. Atlanta is one of the worst teams at defending pass-catching RBs, and that is Kamara’s wheelhouse (or wheel route if you will). Kamara also proved last week that even if he is held in check on the ground, that he still can post a no yardage -multiple TD rushing performance. This is why he trails only Dalvin Cook in terms of total RB scores this year.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings vs. DAL ($9000 DK, $10500 FD)
Wow, $10.5K on FD. That will be hard to stomach. He still might reach 3X versus the biblically bad Cowboys. Houston is the only team to allow more rushing yards to opposing RBs this year. Plus, Dalvin Cook can do so much damage both on the ground and through the air. Over his last six games, Cook is averaging over 170 combo yards per game. He also has scored at least one TD in every game except last week. Heck, even missing a game and a half to injury, he has more total TDs than any other player this season.

D’Andre Swift, Lions @ CAR ($6400 DK, $6900 FD)
The real Panthers’ run defense showed its true colors again last week allowing 192-1 to Ronald Jones. Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift has surpassed all of the other Detroit RBs, and arguably all of the other rookie RBs in the league too. In his first “official start” last week, Swift posted 149 combo yards and a score. Plus, he is being used both on the ground and through the air making him even more valuable.

Mike Davis, Panthers vs. DET ($6800 DK, $7400 FD)
In the same game, Mike Davis also has the chance to re-emerge as the discount Christian McCaffrey that he was earlier this year. His usage had been shaky the last few weeks while CMAC was out, but earlier this year he was looking like a system-RB. With Teddy Bridgewater likely to miss this game, I expect Will Grier or P.J. Walker to lean on Davis both on the ground and via the dump-off pass. He isn’t $4K this week, but he will still exceed 2X value. Especially since Detroit has allowed 789 combo yards and 11 total TDs to opposing RBs over the last four games.

DFS Sleepers

Antonio Gibson, Football Team vs. CIN ($5800 DK, $6500 FD)
I called both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic last week in the sleepers section. They both went off. This matchup is just as sweet for both of them. I’m favoring Gibson this week since Cincinnati has been more amenable to RBs rushing than through the air. On the season, the Bengals are allowing more than five yards per carry to opposing RBs, while allowing only four receptions per game (McKissic’s specialty) to the position.

Salvon Ahmed, Dolphins @ DEN ($4800 DK, $5600 FD)
I admit before Week 9 I had never heard of this man. Salvon Ahmed managed to pass the undead corpse of Jordan Howard, the never-healthy Matt Breida, and the all-hype Patrick Laird on the Dolphins’ back-up RB depth chart. That was not much of a  challenge. He looked serviceable last week, which is more than can be said for any of that other threesome. Obviously, when Myles Gaskin returns, Ahmed becomes a pumpkin again. Until then enjoy the ride against a Denver defense that has given up just under 300 total yards over their last two games to go along with five total TDs by opposing RBs.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Davante Adams	$8,600	$9,500
Julio Jones	$7,500	$8,100
Keenan Allen	$7,400	$8,000
Michael Thomas	$7,300	$8,200
A.J. Brown	$7,200	$7,500
Calvin Ridley	$7,000	$7,800
Terry McLaurin	$6,900	$7,300
JuJu Smith-Schuster	$6,400	$6,500
Adam Thielen	$6,300	$7,900
Will Fuller	$6,200	$7,100
Chase Claypool	$6,100	$6,400
Jamison Crowder	$6,100	$6,600
Justin Jefferson	$6,000	$6,700
Robby Anderson	$6,000	$6,300
Diontae Johnson	$5,900	$6,400
Tee Higgins	$5,900	$6,500
Kenny Golladay	$5,800	$7,000
Marquise Brown	$5,800	$5,900
DeVante Parker	$5,700	$6,200
DJ Chark	$5,700	$6,200
DJ Moore	$5,600	$7,100
Travis Fulgham	$5,600	$6,800
Tyler Boyd	$5,600	$6,600
Jarvis Landry	$5,500	$5,900
Marvin Jones	$5,500	$6,400
Amari Cooper	$5,400	$6,900
Jerry Jeudy	$5,300	$5,700
Brandin Cooks	$5,200	$6,100
Mike Williams	$5,100	$5,900
CeeDee Lamb	$5,000	$5,800
Emmanuel Sanders	$4,900	$5,600
Jakobi Meyers	$4,900	$6,000
Corey Davis	$4,800	$5,900
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	$4,800	$5,800
Tim Patrick	$4,800	$5,500
Curtis Samuel	$4,700	$5,600
Allen Lazard	$4,600	$5,500
Michael Pittman	$4,500	$5,500
Rashard Higgins	$4,500	$5,400
Willie Snead	$4,500	$5,200
Zach Pascal	$4,400	$5,300
Breshad Perriman	$4,300	$5,700
Jalen Reagor	$4,300	$5,600
T.Y. Hilton	$4,200	$5,400
Greg Ward	$4,000	$5,200
Russell Gage	$3,900	$5,100
Keelan Cole	$3,800	$5,300
Marvin Hall	$3,800	$5,100
Danny Amendola	$3,700	$5,200
Michael Gallup	$3,700	$5,400
A.J. Green	$3,600	$5,500
KJ Hamler	$3,600	$5,200
Laviska Shenault	$3,600	$5,000
N’Keal Harry	$3,600	$5,300
Randall Cobb	$3,600	$5,100
Damiere Byrd	$3,500	$5,300
Jakeem Grant	$3,500	$4,600
Cam Sims	$3,300	$5,000
Denzel Mims	$3,300	$5.400
Steven Sims	$3,000	$4,600

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas are the top two options this week. One of the two should be your WR1. Pivots from those two would be Terry McLaurin or JuJu Smith-Schuster. I also like both of the Falcons, but deciding which one will have the better game this week is tough. For WR2 I really like Jamison Crowder, Justin Jefferson, and perhaps my favorite play of the week Diontae Johnson. If you choose to throw big money at RB2, you could choose your top two WRs from this group. There are several cheaper WR3 options. I like both Eagles, Breshad Perriman, and Jakobi Meyers the most. If you need to drop into punt-range to save money here, I’d suggest Jakeem Grant or one of the Simses for the Football Team.

Fantasy Four Pack

Keenan Allen, Chargers vs. NYJ ($7400 DK, $8000 FD)
The Jets have struggled against both #1 WRs and possession-style WRs. Keenan Allen fits both of those descriptions. Allen has scored in four of his last five games. The one exception was when he went off for 10-125 against Jacksonville. Double-digit receptions, the century mark, and a score are all in play here.

Michael Thomas, Saints vs. ATL ($7300 DK, $8200 FD)
Michael Thomas failed in a nearly sure thing spot last week. I put the blame on the lack of practice snaps for Jameis Winston. Thomas was on the field quite a bit, he just didn’t see the target share that we expect when Drew Brees is under center. Only Seattle has allowed more receiving yards to opposing WRs. Bigger-bodied WRs have absolutely dominated Atlanta all season. We’ll see more of the same here.

Terry McLaurin, Football Team vs. CIN ($6900 DK, $7300 FD)
Terry McLaurin is still getting value pricing despite posting seven or more catches six times this year. He has been particularly on fire the last three weeks posting 21-300-2. Cincinnati has allowed a league-high seven WR touchdowns to go along with 660 WR receiving yards over the last four weeks, despite having their bye fall in that span. Most of that damage was done by WR1s, but secondary WRs have had success too, so if you need a punt play consider one of the Simses.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers @ JAX ($6400 DK, $6500 FD)
As lengthy as 2020 has been, it seems like years have passed since earlier this year when JuJu Smith-Schuster was not being targeted. Since Week 7, JuJu has seen a league third-high 42 targets. This has come despite the presence of James Washington, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool. He also trails only Davante Adams in receptions during that stretch. I mentioned up above about the Steelers game plan switch recently to throwing, throwing, and more throwing. This benefits all of Big Ben’s weapons. In five of their last six games, Jacksonville has allowed two or more WRs from each of their opponents to post big scores. One of those this week will be JuJu the other will be…

DFS Sleepers

Diontae Johnson, Steelers @ JAX ($5900 DK, $6400 FD)
…Diontae Johnson. Diontae has played only five full games this year thanks to a series of early year injuries. In those five games, he is averaging double-digit targets. That will give him an easy 7-75-1 here. There is a part of me that wants to Triple-stack Big Ben and both of his top two WRs. At the very least, make sure you have one of them in your lineup.

Jalen Reagor, Eagles @ CLE ($4300 DK, $5600 FD)
Over their last two games, Jalen Reagor leads all Eagles’ skill position players in targets and he is second in receptions and receiving yards. Part of that was tight coverage on Travis Fulgham, but in his case that comes with being a “WR1”. Cleveland has allowed multiple non-WR1s to post big games this year including Willie Snead, Dontrelle Inman, “The Other” Mike Thomas, Cee Dee Lamb, and Marcus Johnson. Reagor will be the next subordinate WR to post a big score against this defense. At this price, he is almost a must-play at WR3. He also should have lower ownership than Fulgham, who I like this week as well.

 

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Mark Andrews	$4,900	$6,500
Jonnu Smith	$4,700	$5,800
Hunter Henry	$4,600	$5,500
Noah Fant	$4,500	$5,700
Hayden Hurst	$4,400	$5,500
Mike Gesicki	$4,300	$5,300
T.J. Hockenson	$4,200	$6,000
Jared Cook	$4,100	$6,100
Eric Ebron	$4,000	$5,400
Austin Hooper	$3,900	$5,100
Dallas Goedert	$3,800	$5,800
Zach Ertz	$3,700	$6,000
Dalton Schultz	$3,600	$5,000
Richard Rodgers	$3,500	$5,000
Irv Smith	$3,400	$5,100
Logan Thomas	$3,300	$5,200
Kyle Rudolph	$3,200	$4,500
Taysom Hill	XXXX	$4,500
Robert Tonyan	$3,200	$5,600
Trey Burton	$3,100	$5,200
Darren Fells	$2,900	$5,000
Mo Alie-Cox	$2,900	$4,900
Drew Sample	$2,700	$4,600
Jack Doyle	$2,500	$4,700
Jordan Akins	$2,500	$4,900

Tight End

Weekly strategy – At Mark Andrews’ price on DK, it is hard to not see him as a value. The FD price is not quite as appealing but he still has potential for 3X based on the matchup. The safer and cheaper option would be Hunter Henry. Jared Cook also has a great DK price and matchup but a less appealing FD price. Cheaper options that I Like are Logan Thomas, Irv Smith, and Darren Fells. Robert Tonyan could also have an increase in value if Davante Adams cannot play. Worse than usual, the floor pricing at FD is higher than the top pricing on DK. If you don’t use the underpriced Henry, I’d recommend punting on FD with Taysom Hill. At Hill’s price, his floor is safe and he has a higher ceiling than anyone else.

Fantasy Four Pack

Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. DEN ($4900 DK, $6500 FD)
It really shows the state of the TE position this week when Mark Andrews is the highest-priced option at under $5K on DK. Even $6.5K on FD doesn’t seem too high. Andrews doesn’t have to worry about Nick Boyle vulturing him anymore. Despite the vultures, Andrews leads the Ravens in receiving TDs and receptions and is second in targets and receiving yards. Without Boyle for part of the game, Andrews finished with 7-61 on nine targets last week. Repeat that and add a TD and he blows away 3X.

Hunter Henry, Chargers vs. NYJ ($4600 DK, $5500 FD)
Hunter Henry hasn’t topped four catches nor 40 yards since Week 3. That said, he does have two TDs during that stretch. So why do I like him so much this week? He is facing a Jets’ defense that has allowed a league fourth-high six tight end scores despite facing only a couple of elite TEs. As underwhelming as Henry has been, he is more talented than seven of the nine top-TEs that New York has faced. A score is a lock here, and I like Henry to bump up to the 6-60 range in what I see as a shootout.

Jared Cook, Saints vs. ATL ($4100 DK, $6100 FD)
Much like Henry, Jared Cook has been rotten the last two games since Michael Thomas returned. Still, before that, he had scored in three straight games and four of five. He remains a huge target for Jameis Winston in the red zone, and at this price on DK, he can hit 3X with a pair of catches and a score. Obviously, the FD price is high based on his possible floor, but Atlanta has allowed the most TE touchdowns, and the second-most TE receptions and receiving yards.

Jonnu Smith, Titans @ BAL ($4700 DK, $5800 FD)
Jonnu Smith joins the list of disappointing TEs in the top-4 this week. In Smith’s defense, he at least has scored in both of the last two weeks. He also leads all TEs in total touchdowns for the year. Yes, Jonnu has more TDs than either George Kittle or Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews or T.J. Hockenson. With so few good selections to choose from this week, you may just want to go with one that is TD-dependent. The Ravens have given up a few TE scores to TD-dependent guys this year and quality TEs like Kelce have put up decent overall lines against them as well.

DFS Sleepers

Logan Thomas, Football Team vs. CIN ($3300 DK, $5200 FD)
Logan Thomas is tied with Terry McLaurin for the Washington Football Team lead with three receiving scores. He also ranks third on the team in both targets and receptions and second in receiving yards. Meanwhile, Cincy has allowed big games to three of the last five TE groups they have faced. I’m going to have a hard time deciding who to fade for Washington this week.

Taysom Hill, Saints vs. ATL ($XXXX DK, $4500 FD)
Obviously, you are not starting Taysom Hill on DK at QB. That said, it will be nearly impossible to not start Hill on FD at TE. First off, his price is lower than virtually everyone else. We know he will have at the minimum his gadget play snaps, which have accounted for RB3/4 numbers the last couple of weeks. We also know that the team is not shy about bringing him in to play QB in the red zone. The rub here will come if Jameis Winston gets hurt or gets picked off three times in the first quarter (which could happen). If that occurs, then you get QB-level statistical production out of your bargain-basement TE.

[lawrence-newsletter]

We made it to Week 10. Part of me is surprised that the season hasn’t been completed unraveled due to this pandemic. Fortunately, the league and the players association have been flexible in their handling of positive tests. There still have been some ridiculous things like the Green Bay vs. San Fran game from last Thursday that should have never happened. As of now, there aren’t any planned changes in the schedule for this week but keep tuned in just in case.

 

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

When the schedule makers drew this one up, they probably were expecting a battle of one of the most electrifying young QBs in the game going up against one of the best defenses in football.  Well, Lamar Jackson has not lived up to his high-end billing and the Patriots’ defense just did everything in their power to try and lose a game to Joe Flacco. This alone should give you hope that Jackson might do something this week. Considering the lack of QB talent on the rest of this slate, he actually gets top billing here, just don’t expect the world. Cam Newton’s receiving corps is almost as deep as the group San Francisco suited up last Thursday. Still, just like Jackson, Newton can make hey with his feet in the red zone keeping his value high. Baltimore’s defense is very good, so I’ll not rank Newton higher than QB2 here, but don’t be surprised if he finishes with the fewest points among any of the four QBs on this slate.

Mark Ingram could return this week, but it would almost be better for Baltimore RB fantasy owners if he just didn’t come back this year. His return will only further murky the waters of value for J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. With all three active, none is better than a FLEX play. It’s too bad because New England can be beaten on the ground. If Ingram sits, I like Edwards to score a TD and Dobbins to catch five or six passes while rolling up 60-70 yards. Still, I doubt I would use either as anything more than FLEX. IF the Baltimore RB group is murky water, then the New England one is straight-up road tar. Damien Harris injured his chest on Monday night and it appeared that he knocked himself unconscious too. I have a hard time believing he will play this week. Baltimore has an elite level run defense, so he wouldn’t have been a great play anyways. James White may be the better play as the Ravens can give up some yards through the air to opposing backs. Even with lesser usage this season, he still makes a decent FLEX play here. Still, Rex Burkhead may be the best play of all for the Patriots’ run group as he can do both ground and pound and catch the ball and run. I’d actually list hin as my choice for RB2 or RB3 on this slate. Of course, the whole situation could get even muddier if Harris plays or if Sony Michel manages to return this week. If that happens just fade the lot of them.

If no one told you that Dez Bryant was active for the Ravens last week would you have known? I’ll wait until he actually shows up on a stat sheet before considering him. Marquise Brown tried to be a squeaky wheel, but he hasn’t gotten any oil over the last two games. This week, he could have value, especially if Stephon Gilmore is out again. At worst, he is WR5 on this slate. I could see using Willie Snead at WR3 to save some money, but his ceiling is very low. Miles Boykin has an even lower ceiling. Jakobi Meyers absolutely blew-up on MNF against the Jets. This week will be much tougher. Only two teams have allowed fewer WR touchdowns than Baltimore. They have given up some yardage (and most of it has come to larger physical receivers like Meyers so he is in play, just don’t count on a score. I would rank him as WR3 on the board here and I’ll certainly use him some this week. Damiere Byrd was second in targets for NE last week, but against a tough pass defense neither him nor Gunner Olszewski should be used outside of Showdown slates. If healthy, N’Keal Harry could receive some FLEX love. His being healthy is always a stretch though.

Over the last three weeks, Nick Boyle has actually outproduced Mark Andrews. New England is beyond the elite against the TE position, so the name alone won’t save his role here. In fact, his name alone may drive his salary off of the playable list. Just don’t waste your time with Boyle either. Ryan Izzo is supposedly the top TE for New England. He didn’t even net a target against one of the worst defenses against TEs last week. Don’t get cute here. New England’s defense couldn’t stymy the immobile corpse of Joe Flacco, they have zero chance of intimidating Lamar Jackson. Leave them on the bench. Baltimore’s defense is in play but I like the Monday night options slightly better.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Kirk Cousins against a stingy Bears’ pass defense is not a smooth play. That said, he has the weapons on offense to produce a 230-2 floor, which may be the second-best line on the slate. More likely, Cousins finishes as QB3. Nick Foles has a much easier row to hoe throwing against the inexperienced Vikings’ secondary. That said, the young-uns are starting to gel there thanks to Mike Zimmer’s coaching. Plus, this is Nick Foles we are talking about. He doesn’t exactly scare anyone. Fortunately for Foles, he has Allen Robinson and Jimmy Graham to do some damage. This should secure him QB2 on this slate, but not by much.

Dalvin Cook is the best active RB in football right now. Meanwhile, Chicago’s run defense is nowhere near as good as you think it is. Cook won’t have 200 total yards this week, but he’ll still easily top 100 yards. This means he is RB1 on this slate and it isn’t close. Lamar Jackson is the only athlete who might finish with more total yards than him here – and HE ISN’T A RB! Alexander Mattison won’t play enough to be valuable here. David Montgomery is recovering from a concussion. He gets an extra day to get healthy, but it is no guarantee that he plays. If Montgomery plays, he is the definite RB2 on the slate. If he doesn’t play Ryan Nall becomes at worst RB3 on the slate and a near-must start.

Allen Robinson versus the inexperienced Vikings’ pass defense is the clear WR1 here. Both, Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller are starting to see more targets. Either could be used as WR3. Cordarelle Patterson could also be used out of the backfield and as a WR in a revenge game script. I like him as a possible punt-FLEX. In general, WRs have not done much this year against Chicago. The ones that have had success are bigger outside guys. That role has fallen onto Justin Jefferson of late. Still, Adam Thielen can take a pass from anywhere to the house, and he remains a red zone threat despite not scoring the last weeks. One of these two should be your WR2. My money is on Jefferson. The Minnesota WR relevance depth chart ends at this point.

Cole Kmet returned last week. Minnesota gives up a ton of yards to the TE position, but they have been stingy allowing only three scores all year.  Jimmy Graham is the safer play and the TE1 on this docket as he has scored five times this season and he has produced a few solid games against Minnesota over his career. For Minnesota, Irv Smith has finally started to be used in the red zone. It was only a matter of time before he inherited this role from veteran Kyle Rudolph. Chicago has struggled mightily against the position, especially in the red zone. So either one might score here. Considering the price difference between them and Graham/Andrews, I’d rather take the flyer on Rudolph or Irv. Chicago’s defense should cause Kirk Cousins to make a few mistakes and Nick Foles should cause himself to make a few mistakes, so either defense is a good play here. That said, I favor Chicago because they are more proven.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $8K for Kyler Murray. $7.1K for Aaron Jones. $4.9K for J.D. McKissic or $4K for Mike Davis if Christian McCaffrey doesn’t play. $7.4K for Michael Thomas. $5.7K for Christian Kirk. $3.5K for Josh Reynolds. $3.5K for Jordan Reed or $4.4K for Eric Ebron if you use Davis instead of McKissic. $6.9K for James Conner at FLEX. $2.6K for the Lions’ defense.

At FD: $7.4K for Jared Goff. $8.8K for Jones. $5.4K for Davis (if no CMAC) or $5.8K for Duke Johnson. $9.5K for Davante Adams. $8.5K for Thomas. $5K for Reynolds. $5K for Reed or $4.6K for Greg Olsen or $4.5K for Gerald Everett. $5.3K for McKissic at FLEX. $4.8K for the Lions’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Murray, Goff at SF, Jones, McKissic, Thomas, Robert Woods, Kirk, Reed, and James Conner at FLEX.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Kyler Murray	$8,000	$8,800
Aaron Rodgers	$7,900	$8,400
Russell Wilson	$7,700	$8,900
Josh Allen	$7,500	$8,700
Deshaun Watson	$6,900	$8,300
Justin Herbert	$6,600	$8,000
Jared Goff	$6,500	$7,400
Drew Brees	$6,400	$7,600
Tom Brady	$6,300	$7,800
Ben Roethlisberger	$6,200	$7,400
Teddy Bridgewater	$6,100	$7,000
Baker Mayfield	$6,000	$7,000
Carson Wentz	$5,900	$7,500
Matthew Stafford	$5,800	$7,300
Joe Burrow	$5,700	$7,200
Tua Tagovailoa	$5,600	$6,800
Drew Lock	$5,500	$7,100
Derek Carr	$5,400	$6,900
Jake Luton	$5,400	$6,700
Nick Mullens	$5,300	$6,600
Alex Smith	$5,200	$6,500
Daniel Jones	$5,200	$6,700
Chase Daniel	$5,000	$6,000

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – I normally hate spending up for my QB. That said, with so many premium options here it will be hard to say no. Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson are the safest plays of the week. Aaron Rodgers should be right in the mix as well, but the game script could limit his final stats. Considering that Jared Goff’s price is so low, it will also be tough not to choose to use him. Teddy Bridgewater would be an interesting pivot from any of them as would Ben Roethlisberger (If he clears the COVID protocols). There are also several cheaper options that I like such as Tua Tagovailoa, Drew Lock, and Nick Mullens.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Kyler Murray, Cardinals vs. BUF ($8000 DK, $8800 FD)
Last week, I was wrong about Kyler Murray. I feel he really proved that he is matchup proof. Buffalo is not a pushover, but they have given up a few points to opposing QBs this season. They have also faced a few QBs that could move around, but they have not faced a rushing QB as explosive as Murray. Kyler will post three total scores en route to a near 30 point fantasy afternoon. Giving him the safest floor among the higher-priced options.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. JAX ($7900 DK, $8400 FD)
Aaron Rodgers has perhaps the easiest matchup among the high-priced options this week. This may actually hurt Rodgers’ chances at a huge week. We also know that Rodgers won’t be affected by any potential weather in Green Bay this weekend. What we don’t know is whether or not Jake Luton will keep this game competitive. If things go south fast for the Jacksonville signal-caller, this game may become the Aaron Jones show fast. All of that said, Rodgers is still a stud QB facing a below-average defense. That alone should be worthy of nearly 3X value.

Deshaun Watson, Texans @ CLE ($6900 DK, $8300 FD)
Deshaun Watson also has an easy matchup this week. Cleveland is ninth in passing yards allowed per game and seventh in passing TDs allowed per game. Deshaun is also working on a string of six straight multiple score games and he has topped 25 rushing yards in each of his last four contests. Coming off of the bye, Cleveland should be able to post some points against a so-so Houston secondary. This will keep the game script in a pass-forward mode putting all pieces of both offenses in play. I particularly like the Watson-Cooks-Fells stack, with a run it back of Rashad Higgins.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks @ LAR ($7700 DK, $8900 FD)
Much like Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson continues to produce outlandish numbers even in tougher matchups. This may be the toughest matchup of the season for Wilson on the road in Los Angeles against Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and Company – who are coming off of a bye to prepare. Still, Russell has one game this year with fewer than three total TDs. Meanwhile, in three home games, the Rams have allowed a total of ONE passing touchdown and a league-low 12 points per game. Wilson will damage these stat trends this week but expect a floor game out of him. I almost prefer the upside of Jared Goff in this contest instead.

DFS Sleepers

Drew Lock, Broncos @ LV ($5500 DK, $7100 FD)
Drew Lock gets sleeper status with me for a second-straight week. Ignoring the windstorm game against Cleveland two weeks ago, Las Vegas is allowing an average of 331-2.5 through the air to opposing QBs, since Week 4. Plus, three of the last five QBs to face them have rushing TDs as well. Meanwhile, Lock has five passing TDs over his last two starts and two rushing TDs over the last three games. Another three total scores are in the works here as well.

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs. LAC ($5600 DK, $6800 FD)
So far we have seen two victories for Tua Tagovailoa. One of them was an awful statistical performance, the other was an average performance. Fortunately for Tua, those two games came against an elite pass defense and an above-average one. The Chargers’ pass defense is below-average at best. One-Touchdown-Teddy (Bridgewater) is the only QB to not account for multiple TDs against this defense. That means that Tua should post a pair of scores as a floor.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey	$9,000	$9,700
Alvin Kamara	$8,200	$9,000
Aaron Jones	$7,100	$8,800
James Conner	$6,900	$7,600
Nick Chubb	$6,800	$8,200
Kareem Hunt	$6,700	$7,500
James Robinson	$6,600	$7,300
Josh Jacobs	$6,500	$7,500
Miles Sanders	$6,400	$7,700
Chase Edmonds	$6,300	$7,100
Chris Carson	$6,200	$7,800
Joe Mixon	$6,100	$7,000
Boston Scott	$6,000	$5,900
Darrell Henderson	$5,900	$5,800
Raheem Mostert	$5,700	$6,800
Antonio Gibson	$5,600	$6,100
Jerick McKinnon	$5,600	$5,500
Leonard Fournette	$5,500	$6,400
David Johnson	$5,400	$6,300
Giovani Bernard	$5,400	$6,200
Ronald Jones	$5,300	$6,400
Melvin Gordon	$5,200	$6,600
Zack Moss	$5,200	$5,800
D’Andre Swift	$5,100	$6,000
DeeJay Dallas	$5,100	$5,600
Duke Johnson	$5,000	$5,800
Kalen Ballage	$5,000	$5,300
Phillip Lindsay	$5,000	$5,900
J.D. McKissic	$4,900	$5,300
Kenyan Drake	$4,900	$6,000
JaMycal Hasty	$4,800	$5,100
Justin Jackson	$4,700	$5,500
Malcolm Brown	$4,700	$5,500
Devonta Freeman	$4,600	$5,400
Carlos Hyde	$4,500	$5,500
Wayne Gallman	$4,500	$5,700
Joshua Kelley	$4,400	$5,200
Devin Singletary	$4,300	$5,600
Cam Akers	$4,200	$5,100
Jordan Howard	$4,200	$5,200
DeAndre Washington	$4,100	$4,500
Adrian Peterson	$4,000	$5,200
Devontae Booker	$4,000	$5,200
Jamaal Williams	$4,000	$5,600
Latavius Murray	$4,000	$5,000
Matt Breida	$4,000	$4,600
Mike Davis	$4,000	$5,400

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Aaron Jones has the blow-up seat this week against Jacksonville. He and James Conner are the easy 1-2 combo up top. Rostering both of them should be attainable if you spend down at QB. James Robinson is a potential pivot, as is Kareem Hunt (if Nick Chubb is out), or Miles Sanders (if he plays).  Either way, try to roster two of that fivesome. Outside of that group, Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic are both studly options at FLEX. I also like the Tampa Bay duo and D’Andre Swift. There are a few possible punt plays. Whoever starts for Miami, Mike Davis, or Duke Johnson in volume roles, and Adrian Peterson in the revenge game.

Fantasy Four Pack

Aaron Jones, Packers vs. JAX ($7100 DK, $8800 FD)
Jacksonville is allowing over 140 combo yards per game to opposing backs and more than one RB touchdown per game. Aaron Jones played most of the snaps last Thursday despite not being 100%, he will be back to full health here and the game script will be right for him to blow-up for 150-2.

James Conner, Steelers vs. CIN ($6900 DK, $7600 FD)
James Conner was left out to dry last week as Pittsburgh decided to go five-wide virtually the entire game. Against the Cowboys, this was the most absurd strategy that Mike Tomlin has ever come up with. I expected after the game that the Scooby-Doo gang was going to come up to the podium and unmask Tomlin as Adam Gase. Amazingly, Tomlin survived that brain fart, so I doubt he screws up again like that this week. Cincinnati is actually worse again the run than Dallas, so Conner has no reason to not top 125-1 here.

James Robinson, Jaguars @ GB ($6600 DK, $7300 FD)
The presence of Jake Luton did not affect the running game value of James Robinson last week. What perhaps should concern you is that Chris Thompson had all of these RB targets last week. As long as Luton can keep this game close (no guarantee), he should lean on Robinson to run the ball against a Packers’ defense that is allowing nearly 150 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. Robinson has also scored in five of eight contests and he has four total TDs over the last three games. This sets up nicely as Green Bay has allowed the league-worst 15 total TDs to the position.

Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. SF ($8200 DK, $9000 FD)
I really don’t care for Alvin Kamara in this matchup as the San Francisco 49ers have been beasts against opposing backs. Still, this is Alvin Kamara. he can always do damage with swing passes and he has a nose for the end zone. I mean, he is averaging 7.5 catches per game and one total TD per game. That sort of production should guarantee him a top-5 final point count most weeks. Even if the matchup is subpar. Needless to say, I won’t have much exposure to him, but this could make him a sneaky play, in a game that could feature some higher scoring

DFS Sleepers

Mike Davis, Panthers vs. TB ($4000 DK, $5400 FD)
This is not a great matchup on paper, but if Christian McCaffrey misses this game, as is expected, then Mike Davis gets to return the featured role that he ate at earlier this year. Even if Davis cannot get going on the ground against this stingy run defense, he should approach double-digit targets and receptions. At this ridiculously low price, if he gets in the end zone he will break the slate. This is one of those chalk plays that you cannot avoid and still expect to cash.

J.D. McKissic, Redskins @ DET ($4900 DK, $5300 FD)
I love both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic this week. Each will produce 3X against a run defense that is still licking its wounds from last week. I’ve decided I prefer McKissic here since he is Alex Smith’s apparent binky. In the two games that Smith has played significant snaps, McKissic has 22 targets. 15 receptions, and 111 receiving yards. In both of those games, he led the team in targets and receptions. Gibson is the better bet to score here but use either as often as you can.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Davante Adams	$9,000	$9,500
DeAndre Hopkins	$7,700	$8,600
DK Metcalf	$7,600	$8,300
Stefon Diggs	$7,500	$7,900
Michael Thomas	$7,400	$8,500
Keenan Allen	$7,100	$7,800
Cooper Kupp	$6,900	$7,700
Terry McLaurin	$6,800	$7,000
Will Fuller	$6,700	$7,100
Robert Woods	$6,600	$7,200
Tyler Lockett	$6,500	$7,400
Travis Fulgham	$6,400	$6,800
Tyler Boyd	$6,400	$6,700
Mike Evans	$6,300	$7,300
DJ Chark	$6,200	$6,600
JuJu Smith-Schuster	$6,100	$6,400
Robby Anderson	$6,100	$6,400
Chris Godwin	$6,000	$7,500
Jarvis Landry	$5,900	$6,000
Antonio Brown	$5,800	$6,500
Chase Claypool	$5,800	$6,100
Brandon Aiyuk	$5,700	$6,500
Brandin Cooks	$5,600	$6,300
Jerry Jeudy	$5,600	$5,800
Tee Higgins	$5,500	$6,100
Deebo Samuel	$5,400	$6,000
Mike Williams	$5,400	$5,900
John Brown	$5,300	$5,600
Diontae Johnson	$5,200	$5,700
Marvin Jones	$5,200	$6,200
DJ Moore	$5,100	$6,900
DeVante Parker	$5,000	$6,000
Sterling Shepard	$5,000	$5,500
Curtis Samuel	$4,900	$5,700
Nelson Agholor	$4,900	$5,100
Tim Patrick	$4,900	$5,500
Darius Slayton	$4,800	$5,900
Emmanuel Sanders	$4,800	$5,800
Cole Beasley	$4,700	$5,400
Rashard Higgins	$4,600	$5,500
Henry Ruggs	$4,500	$5,600
A.J. Green	$4,400	$5,600
Kendrick Bourne	$4,400	$5,400
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	$4,400	$5,500
Hunter Renfrow	$4,200	$4,900
Jalen Reagor	$4,200	$5,600
Allen Lazard	$4,000	$5,700
Alshon Jeffery	$4,000	$4,800
Randall Cobb	$4,000	$5,100
Richie James	$4,000	$5,400
Danny Amendola	$3,900	$5,200
Larry Fitzgerald	$3,900	$5,000
Greg Ward	$3,800	$5,100
KJ Hamler	$3,800	$5,200
Laviska Shenault	$3,800	$5,200
Donovan Peoples-Jones	$3,700	$5,200
Golden Tate	$3,600	$5,300
Josh Reynolds	$3,500	$5.000
Marvin Hall	$3,500	$4,600
David Moore	$3,400	$5,300
Keelan Cole	$3,400	$5,100
Cam Sims	$3,200	$4,900
Austin Mack	$3,000	$4,900
Chris Conley	$3,000	$4,800
James Washington	$3,000	$5,100
Mack Hollins	$3,000	$4.800
Quintez Cephus	$3,000	$4,600
Steven Sims	$3,000	$4,600

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – I don’t mind the idea of paying up for Davante Adams. I just know it will be hard to fit him under the cap. Especially since you can nab Cooper Kupp or Michael Thomas for a lot less. I see Will Fuller as a pivot (although I will probably opt for his running mate Brandin Cooks at WR2 instead). The other WR2 options that I really like are JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jerry Jeudy, Christian Kirk, and Diontae Johnson.  As for WR3, I really love Curtis Samuel this week. DeVante Parker could be worth using with Preston Williams out. Rashard Higgins could be a high volume play this week and Jalen Reagor could be a sneaky play with Travis Fulgham locked up against James Bradberry. There are also a couple of punt-plays that I really love,  Josh Reynolds and Mack Hollins. Reynolds is a great WR3 option in the stack with Jared Goff if you don’t use Cooper Kupp at WR!

Fantasy Four Pack

Michael Thomas, Saints vs. SF ($7400 DK, $8500 FD)
Over their last six games, every WR1 except Jakobi Meyers has scored at least one TD against this defense. This includes 22-344-3 in the last two weeks against Davante Adams and DK Metcalf. Michael Thomas is certainly in their wheelhouse talent-wise. Thomas is fully healthy now and it is hard to run against SF, so expect New Orleans to use short passes to both Thomas and Alvin Kamara in lieu of running the ball.

Davante Adams, Packers vs. JAX ($9000 DK, $9500 FD)
Against a weak defense like Jacksonville, Davante Adams will score and will top 100 yards. Unfortunately, he has been given CMAC pricing. At this cost, you are praying he meets 3X rather than counting on it. In a game that Green Bay could jump out to a big lead, we might not see a ton of Adams in the second half as Green Bay drains the clock with Aaron Jones.

Cooper Kupp, Rams vs. SEA ($6900 DK, $7700 FD)
All Cooper Kupp did in Week 8 was haul in 11 of 20 targets for 110 yards. That was despite facing a team with two of the top CBs in football. This week he faces a defense that is allowing 22 receptions and 280 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. Not to the entire offense – TO JUST THE WRs! They’ve also given up 13 WR touchdowns. Robert Woods is also in play as is Josh Reynolds. If you don’t use Kupp, please use Reynolds at WR3.

Terry McLaurin, Football Team @ DET ($6800 DK, $7000 FD)
I’ve doubted Terry McLaurin on a couple of occasions this season. I was wrong. Only once in his last seven games has McLaurin not finished with at least 70 yards and/or a score. The QB change last week didn’t limit Terry’s usage as he still led the team in receiving yards.

DFS Sleepers

Brandin Cooks, Texans @ CLE ($5600 DK, $6300 FD)
Since Week 5, Brandin Cooks leads Will Fuller in receptions, targets, and receiving yards. The only category Fuller leads Cooks in is TDs. Still, Brandin has scored in three of those four contests. Cleveland has allowed the fifth-most WR touchdowns this season, including five in their last three games. I like both Fuller and Cooks this week, but once again Cooks is cheaper, making him easier to roster.

Curtis Samuel, Panthers vs. TB ($4900 DK, $5700 FD)
Curtis Samuel has been used both in the passing game and running game for Carolina. With Christian McCaffrey likely out, Samuel should go back to his change-of-pace role behind Mike Davis. This role gave him back-to-back scores on the ground in Weeks 7 and 8. Pair that with the two air scores that Samuel has locked up the last two weeks, makes him a safe play even with “One-Touchdown” Teddy throwing him the ball. Plus, over their last five meetings, Samuel has scored four TDs and he is averaging 73 total yards per game against the Bucs.

 

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Darren Waller	$5,900	$7,000
T.J. Hockenson	$5,100	$6,200
Noah Fant	$4,900	$5,700
Rob Gronkowski	$4,700	$6,100
Jared Cook	$4,600	$6,000
Evan Engram	$4,500	$5,600
Eric Ebron	$4,400	$5,400
Mike Gesicki	$4,300	$5,300
Dallas Goedert	$4,200	$5,800
Hunter Henry	$4,100	$5,500
Austin Hooper	$3,900	$5,100
Ross Dwelley	$3,800	$5,000
Tyler Higbee	$3,700	$5,200
Robert Tonyan	$3,600	$5,700
Jordan Reed	$3,500	$5,700
Darren Fells	$3,400	$5,000
Logan Thomas	$3,300	$4,900
David Njoku	$3,200	$4,800
Gerald Everett	$3,100	$4,500
Harrison Bryant	$3,000	$4,800
Tyler Kroft	$3,000	$4,700
Jordan Akins	$2,900	$4,900
Drew Sample	$2,700	$4,400
Tyler Eifert	$2,700	$4,600
Donald Parham	$2,500	$4,400
Greg Olsen	$2,500	$4,600
Jesse James	$2,500	$4,300

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Darren Waller at his DK price is very good, but his FD price is not a bargain. Both T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant are in play, and each costs less than Waller. Still, Eric Ebron makes the best play of the week based on pricepoint. To save a little consider using one of the Niners or Darren Fells. I will also have extensive exposure to Logan Thomas. There isn’t a punt play that I love, but I don’t mind TD-chasing with Donald Parham.

Fantasy Four Pack

Darren Waller, Raiders vs. DEN ($5900 DK, $7000 FD)
Denver can be beaten by opposing TEs. Still, they haven’t given up many TDs to the position. Nevertheless, this game projects as a shootout. That bodes well for Darren Waller since he has twice as many targets and nearly twice as many receptions as his next closest teammate. Waller has also scored in three of his last four games.

T.J. Hockenson, Lions vs. WAS ($5100 DK, $6200 FD)
T.J. Hockenson has scored and/or topped 50 receiving yards in every game this season. This includes TDs in four of his last five games. Meanwhile, Washington is elite against opposing WRs (especially outside WRs), but only two teams have allowed more TE touchdowns. So the strategy for Matthew Stafford should be to throw over the middle to Hockenson and Danny Amendola. Still, keep an eye on Hockenson’s practice status Friday, as he didn’t practice Thursday due to a new toe issue. If he doesn’t play, Jesse James could see some of this thunder at a rock-bottom price.

Noah Fant, Broncos @ LV ($4900 DK, $5700 FD)
As I mentioned above with Waller, this game should be a sneaky shootout, that may fly under the radar. Noah Fant has played through a couple of injuries in the last few weeks, but he is still posting effective stats. Every quality TE that Vegas has faced, except Hunter Henry, has scored against them. With recent-vulture, Albert Okwuegbunam out for the year, Fant will get back in the end zone this week.

Eric Ebron, Steelers vs. CIN ($4400 DK, $5400 FD)
Cincinnati has allowed the third-most receiving yards and TDs to opposing TEs. This includes five scores given up over their last three games. Eric Ebron has scored in back-to-back games and a third straight seems like a lock, especially since Vance McDonald has been ruled out due to COVID.

DFS Sleepers

Logan Thomas, Football Team @ DET ($3300 DK, $4900 FD)
Detroit has given up four TE scores over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, former Lion (revenge game anyone?), Logan Thomas has scored in two of his last three games. Plus, he is playing more frequently lined up as both a WR and TE, so he should see a fair amount of opportunities here.

Jordan Reed, Niners @ NO ($3500 DK, $5700 FD)
Jordan Reed was playing on a snap count last week coming off of the IR. This week, he should be free to run a full game script. In weeks 2 and 3 (while George Kittle was out), Reed combined for 9-73-2. He will still split TE targets with Ross Dwelley, but at $3.5K, his price is cheaper than that of Dwelley on DK. Of course, Dwelley is cheaper on FD, so on that site consider him instead. New Orleans has played the position much better recently, but they did give up six scores to opposing TEs over their first five games.

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