We continue forward deeper into the pandemic-fueled 2020 season. Injuries and illness have decimated the QB and TE positions. We are on RB3 and RB4 for some teams right now. WR is really the only position that hasn’t been pummeled this season. Of course, we also have several NFL teams that have decided to punt the WR position as well. This is good news for DFS players because we can get WR1 production at WR3 prices by choosing the top options from teams that otherwise are devoid of talent. I mean they have to throw it to someone right. With mediocre crap filling up the positions, I’d rather spend up for the true talent there and backfill with the values at the WR spot – just seek out the volume plays. With this being the last major bye week of the year and with two premiere offenses playing Thursday night and three other higher-end offenses playing in the Primetime Slate, we need to find value where we can.
DFS: The Primetime Slate
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs will be seeking to avenge their sole loss of the year to the Raiders this week. Las Vegas simply out-lasted them in the earlier contest. It was amazing because Kansas City has a much better offense than Vegas. Patrick Mahomes has five games this season with three or more TDs. One of those was the game against Vegas. At that point, Kansas City actually was still attempting to run the ball in addition to passing. Now the Chiefs are just going four-wide on every down and we see Mahomes throw for nearly 800 yards and nine passing scores in just the last two weeks. This is despite facing back-to-back rotten run defenses. The Raiders’ run defense may be worse than both of the last two opponents, but if the Chiefs’ RBs aren’t even going to be on the field as anything more than pass-blockers, then I’m all-in on Mahomes having another insane game. He is easily the QB1 here. As for the Raiders, Derek Carr is trending the wrong way since the earlier meeting against the Chiefs. He has 430 passing yards and three touchdowns TOTAL over the last three games. Compare that with the 347-3 he posted in just the Chiefs’ game. I think he is no safer this week than QB3, and that is purely speculating that he can keep this one close.
As I mentioned above, Kansas City has basically abandoned the run in their last two games. They have 92 pass attempts compared to only 31 run attempts. Even in that earlier game, the spread was just a hair above 2-1. What this means is that even though the Raiders are a cake matchup for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell, you cannot start either of them as anything higher than a FLEX. I’m honestly not even sure which one I’d recommend as a dart throw here. It would probably be Helaire just because he is seeing more targets. Josh Jacobs had a very solid day in the earlier meeting. He scored twice (one of three multi-score weeks for him this season). He also watched Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard siphon off a lot of touches. Richard was hurt last week, so perhaps Jacobs doesn’t get vultured quite as much this week. He still has to deal with Booker, who is seeing more and more snaps each week. This slate features four split backfields, so any surety is a must-start. That makes Jacobs RB1 here. If Booker continues his change of pace role, I can safely recommend him as a FLEX option. I’m just scared that the Chiefs jump out early and severely limit the rushing attempts for Vegas this time around. Richard will be no better than the third-option here so he should be avoided in any non-Showdown format, and even then he might not be play-worthy.
As is standard, Sammy Watkins had a huge Week 1, and then he disappeared never to be seen again. Word is he may return this week, but we’ve heard that one before. In his absence, Demarcus Robinson has been a very solid option by scoring and/or topping 60 receiving yards in three of the last four games. I love him this week as a cheap alternative to the expensive Tyreek Hill. Hill is still the WR1 on this slate, but his price may be prohibitive. Still, he has five touchdowns over the last three weeks so don’t ignore him completely. Mecole Hardman has also seen an uptick in usage with Watkins out. His speed puts him in play as a WR3, even if Watkins returns. The only one hurt by Watkins returning would be Robinson. If Sammy plays, I could see using Robinson as no more than a WR3. Without Watkins, both Hardman and Robinson could be WR2 choices. As for Sammy, I don’t trust Watkins to do anything even if he does play, so just leave him on the bench. Bryan Pringle is always a favorite of mine in Showdown slates, but he is not in play here. The Raiders will likely have to throw the ball to stay in this one. It helps that all five of Carr’s wide receivers should be able to suit up for this game. Of course, this multi-faceted attack limits their individual appeal. Brian Edwards returned and posted a single catch, but his presence ate into Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow’s workload. Agholor is the safest of that threesome since he remains the primary deep threat for Carr. Henry Ruggs has also been involved deep, dropping a likely long touchdown last week. Still, he hasn’t seen more than four targets since Week 1. You’ll want to run it back with one of these guys, but the choice is difficult. Whichever one you choose will be no more than your WR3. I’d go with Ruggs since he led the team in WR snaps last week and since he scored in the earlier meeting. Agholor would be my second choice and I’ll leave Edwards, Renfrow, and Zay Jones off my lineup cards.
Travis Kelce leads all TEs in every category. He scored and topped 100 yards in their earlier meeting and he is without a doubt the TE1 here. Darren Waller will be a little bit cheaper and despite all of the returning WRs, Waller is still getting a large number of targets. The Chiefs are the toughest of the four teams in terms of shutting down opposing TEs. That said, one of the scores they gave up earlier this year was to Waller. He is more reliable than the Monday night TEs, even though their matchups are easier. I’ll give him the TE2 role here and a possible FLEX assignment if you go Double-TE. Despite Carr’s recent lack of production, he remains one of the best QBs in the league in regards to not turning the ball over. Still, I’ll give Kansas City the DEF2 ranking here just a smidge over Tampa Bay.
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jared Goff has tended to play up or down to his competition level for his entire career. He actually had a great passing game last week, but he ceded all of the TDs to the running game. It was the fourth time this year and the second-straight game in which he has thrown for zero or one TD. Running against Tampa Bay is virtually impossible, so perhaps this week Goff gets it done through the air. I still have him only a hair above Carr and Brady as QB2, with all three several lengths behind Mahomes. As for the Rams, their pass defense is legit. They just took out MVP candidate Russell Wilson. Tom Brady is the GOAT, but this week he is no better than QB3 out of this group of four. Brady just needs to be happy that he is not facing the Rams in LA, where they have given up only one passing TD all season.
The Rams have played musical running backs all season. None will do anything on the ground against this defense. Their best hope is that Malcolm Brown gets a TD plunge. As impossible as it is to run against the Rams, they are allowing the most receptions to the RB position. Cam Akers has been unused in the passing game, so he is firmly planted on your bench. Darrell Henderson has the most talent of any of the three of them, but he had the fewest yards and usage of any of them last week. He also trails Brown on the year in both targets and receptions. All of this adds up to Brown being the best play of the three, yet no more than RB3 overall on the slate. Ronald Jones fumbled early last week and Twitter exploded expecting him to not play again until at least Week 13. Instead, Jones returned to the game, had a 98-yard TD run, and finished with an absurd 198 total yards. Now before you go saying “I told ya so” in regards to Jones, remember this was against a Carolina Panthers’ team that hasn’t shut down an RB-room since nearly 2017. Yes, Jones is the RB2 on this slate, but it is less due to his talent, and more due to the lack of defined RB roles on the other teams. Leonard Fournette should still see a few passes out of the backfield, but barring multiple early fumbles from Jones, he is now relegated to C-O-P status. With so many other possible FLEX plays this week (Booker, Brown, the TEs), I don’t even love him there.
It is much easier to beat Tampa Bay through the air. This means that Jared Goff should throw the ball early and often. Cooper Kupp is my favorite play of his WRs since the Bucs have had issues with possession and slot WRs. He should be the WR2 on this slate, and I will play him as WR1 in any lineup that I don’t use Tyreek Hill. Robert Woods has actually been out-targeted by Josh Reynolds the last three games. Woods still has a couple of scores over that stretch thanks to his running attempts. This week, he gets WR2 consideration, but only if you are not using Kupp. Reynolds needs to be considered as the cheap WR3 option if you don’t use one of the Raiders. I can actually see using both him and Kupp in the same stack with Goff. Van Jefferson may be good in the future, but for now, he will need an injury to be relevant. I’ll leave him for Showdown slates only. The Buccaneers have three legitimate candidates for WR1 on any given week. This week, at least one of them will be locked down by Jalen Ramsey. My money is on Ramsey shadowing the most talented option that being Chris Godwin. Don’t be surprised, however, if Mike Evans becomes the shadow target of Ramsey. Due to the matchup, I don’t like either as more than a WR2 this week, and considering their prices, I don’t even really like that. Whichever one avoids Ramsey will have some value, the other one is unusable. The one WR I like here is Antonio Brown. His possession role (particularly if he lines up in the slot this week) is the best choice of the threesome. Since the signing of Brown, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson have become afterthoughts in this offense. Do not waste your time or roster slots on either of them.
Neither defense is very good against opposing TEs. Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate may have some value since Brady will likely be forced to look inside with his passes. Still, with so many weapons and such a flatlined ceiling for Brady, I cannot predict big yardage for either of them. In both cases, you are simply begging for the TD. Gronk is TE4 here and Brate is TE6. I’m not going to use either of them unless my salary cap funds are completely depleted. Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett have alternated solid games all season. Higbee appears to be fully recovered from his earlier injury, so perhaps his big Week 10 game is the trend in the right direction for him. I like Higbee as no worse than TE3 here, and Everett at TE5 against a defense that has allowed six TE scores already this season. Either would be an interesting Double-TE play, and both will save you tremendously cost-wise compared to Kelce and Waller if you use them at your primary TE slot. The Rams and Bucs are both options at defense this week. I like the Rams a slight bit more, but neither is awful.
The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups
At DK: $6.7K for Ben Roethlisberger. $9.2K for Alvin Kamara. $5.8K for Antonio Gibson. $6.4K or less for your choice of JuJu Smith-Schuster or Diontae Johnson. $6.1K for Jamison Crowder. $4.3K for Jalen Reagor. $3.3K for Logan Thomas. $5.7K for Damien Harris or less for one of the Colts’ RBs at FLEX. $2.3K for the Falcons’ defense.
At FD: $8K for Roethlisberger. $9.7K for Kamara. $6.5K for Gibson. $6.4K for Diontae. $6.6K for Crowder. $4.6K for Jakeem Grant. $4.5K for Taysom Hill. $10.5K for Dalvin Cook at FLEX. $3.2K for the Falcons’ defense.
At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Roethlisberger, Carson Wentz at SF, D’Andre Swift, Gibson, Diontae, Travis Fulgham, Breshad Perriman, Travis Kelce, and Cook at FLEX.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | $7,300 | $8,400 |
| Aaron Rodgers | $7,000 | $9,000 |
| Justin Herbert | $6,800 | $8,500 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | $6,700 | $8,000 |
| Deshaun Watson | $6,500 | $7,700 |
| Matt Ryan | $6,300 | $7,800 |
| Cam Newton | $6,200 | $7,600 |
| Kirk Cousins | $6,200 | $7,100 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $6,100 | $7,300 |
| Matthew Stafford | $6,000 | $7,500 |
| Jameis Winston | $5,900 | $7,200 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $5,800 | $6,700 |
| Carson Wentz | $5,700 | $7,400 |
| Philip Rivers | $5,600 | $7,000 |
| Joe Burrow | $5,500 | $7,700 |
| Baker Mayfield | $5,400 | $7,000 |
| Drew Lock | $5,400 | $6,800 |
| Alex Smith | $5,300 | $6,600 |
| Andy Dalton | $5,300 | $6,900 |
| Garrett Gilbert | $5,200 | $6,500 |
| Jake Luton | $5,000 | $6,500 |
| Joe Flacco | $5,000 | $6,100 |
| P.J. Walker | $4,800 | $6,500 |
| Taysom Hill | $4,800 | XXXX |
| Will Grier | $4,600 | $6,000 |
Quarterback
Weekly strategy – Ben Roethlisberger is really the only high-priced option I know will hit 3X value. Lamar Jackson may on DK, but I’m not confident about him on FD. Justin Herbert will be over-owned against the Jets and the Chargers may just lean on their plethora of RBs. Matt Ryan is my likely pivot. He should reach 3X as well if the game script plays out as I expect. Jameis Winston could have a solid day and I feel better about his DK price than his FD price. The same goes for Carson Wentz. This might be the week to save some money at the position and punt with Alex Smith or even Mr. Elite Joe Flacco.
Fantasy Four Pack
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers @ JAX ($6700 DK, $8000 FD)
Last week, I was concerned that Aaron Rodgers might not meet value because Aaron Jones would run the ball all game against these Jaguars. I was wrong there. I’m not concerned about the Steelers’ running game right now, because they have abandoned it. Much like the Chiefs, Pittsburgh was running 5-Wide sets up 22 points midway through the fourth quarter. Apparently, they believe to beat the Chiefs they have to perform on offense as the Chiefs would. Ben Roethlisberger has no shortage of stud weapons to throw to. All three of his top WRs will score this week, and I like Ebron to nab a TD as well. We learned last week that Jake Luton could stay competitive in bad weather, but that was against the subpar and short-handed Packers’ defense. Luton stands no chance against Pittsburgh. Normally, that would scare me off of the QB and onto Conner, but after seeing the Steelers’ strategy the last two weeks, that fear has disappeared.
Matt Ryan, Falcons @ NO ($6300 DK, $7800 FD)
Matt Ryan has multiple passing TDs in eight of his last ten games against the Saints. He also has topped 300 passing yards in 12 of 23 career meetings with them. The only negative trend Ryan has against New Orleans is that he is getting sacked far too frequently against them (19 times in his last four games). Assuming he isn’t knocked out of this game, Ryan and Jameis Winston should put up a shootout with all of their combined weapons. I like both of them this week, but know that Winston is more likely to throw a few INTs. Either way, lock in Ryan for 300+ yards and 2-3 passing scores.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs. TEN ($7300 DK, $8400 FD)
Tennessee is rotten on pass defense. Only five teams have allowed more passing yards and only two teams have allowed more passing TDs. Unfortunately for Lamar Jackson, throwing the ball hasn’t been his strong suit this season. He has one game with more than 250 passing yards this season, that was way back in Week 1. The two running QBs that Tennessee has faced this season (Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson) did little on the ground against the Titans. This was less because Tennessee shut them down on the ground, and more because they were both able to throw the ball at will. Jackson’s weapons are nowhere near on par with the WRs that Allen and Watson can throw out there, so the 250 mark seems like a passing ceiling for Jackson. We can also say that Jackson is a better ball carrier than either Allen or Watson, so we still like him to produce at least a floor rushing game of 55-1. All in, he should finish as one of the top-3 QBs in points this week, but I don’t feel as confident about him as I do some of the others.
Justin Herbert, Chargers vs. NYJ ($6800 DK, $8500 FD)
I have already made the outlandish claim on our weekly office pool picks that the Jets are going to upset the Chargers this week. In order for this to happen, Joe Flacco will have to throw the ball frequently to his growing collection of WRs. If he is throwing the ball a lot, then Justin Herbert will actually need to throw it a lot too. This would be a perfect storm to keep the Chargers from just running the ball down New York’s throat. The Jets have allowed huge fantasy points to each of the last five QBs they have faced. Including some big yardage on the ground. Since Week 4, Herbert is tied for the league lead in passing TDs and he has a couple of rushing scores as well. I loathe paying this much for a rookie QB on FD, but at DK he should easily hit the 3X mark. It all comes down to the Chargers not abandoning the pass here.
DFS Sleepers
Alex Smith, Football Team vs. CIN ($5300 DK, $6600 FD)
Over the last two weeks, no QB has thrown for more yards than Alex Smith. Yes, it is a small sample size and yes, it was against two horrible pass defenses. Cincy isn’t much better. They have allowed 14 passing TDs over their last four games. So, I trust that Smith will not only top 300 yards once again but also finally reach that two-TD plateau.
Joe Flacco, Jets @ LAC ($5000 DK, $6100 FD)
Up above, I discuss what I expect to happen between the Chargers and Jets. Joe Flacco, quietly, has a dearth of finally healthy WRs to throw to. The Chargers have allowed multiple TDs to seven of the nine QBs they have faced, and each of the last six they have faced. The Jets have zero running game, so they will have to lean on Flacco. Normally that would suck, but with Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder to throw to, it sucks a little less. Heck, if we had a healthy Sam Darnold this week, he might finish as a top-5 QB. Flacco won’t reach those heights, but 275-2/3 is possible.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | $9,400 | $10,000 |
| Alvin Kamara | $9,200 | $9,700 |
| Dalvin Cook | $9,000 | $10,500 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,000 | $8,200 |
| Aaron Jones | $7,200 | $8,200 |
| Nick Chubb | $7,000 | $8,100 |
| Miles Sanders | $6,900 | $7,700 |
| Mike Davis | $6,800 | $7,400 |
| Kareem Hunt | $6,700 | $6,700 |
| James Conner | $6,600 | $7,000 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | $6,500 | $8,000 |
| D’Andre Swift | $6,400 | $6,900 |
| James Robinson | $6,400 | $7,200 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,300 | $7,500 |
| Latavius Murray | $5,900 | $5,000 |
| Todd Gurley | $5,900 | $6,700 |
| Antonio Gibson | $5,800 | $6,500 |
| Jonathan Taylor | $5,800 | $5,700 |
| Damien Harris | $5,700 | $5,800 |
| Jamaal WIlliams | $5,700 | $5,300 |
| Boston Scott | $5,600 | $5,200 |
| Kalen Ballage | $5,600 | $5,800 |
| Giovani Bernard | $5,500 | $6,300 |
| Duke Johnson | $5,400 | $6,000 |
| J.D. McKissic | $5,200 | $5,600 |
| Nyheim Hines | $5,200 | $6,100 |
| David Johnson | $5,100 | $6,200 |
| J.K. Dobbins | $5,100 | $5,500 |
| Melvin Gordon | $5,100 | $6,400 |
| Mark Ingram | $5,000 | $5,900 |
| Salvon Ahmed | $4,800 | $5,600 |
| Rex Burkhead | $4,600 | $5,900 |
| Gus Edwards | $4,500 | $5,500 |
| Phillip Lindsay | $4,500 | $5,400 |
| La’Mical Perine | $4,400 | $5,400 |
| James White | $4,200 | $5,300 |
| Frank Gore | $4,100 | $5,000 |
| Adrian Peterson | $4,000 | $5,100 |
| Brian Hill | $4,000 | $5,000 |
| Jordan Wilkins | $4,000 | $5,300 |
| Joshua Kelley | $4,000 | $5,200 |
Running Back
Weekly strategy – FD is being miserly this week with huge salaries all around. Three RBs near or above $10K??? Of course, one of them is almost assuredly out. The other two actually have smash spots. There is seriously no easy way to fit both Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook into your lineup without seriously punting elsewhere. That said, with Flacco and Wentz and Smith as cheaper QB options that you can stack with cheaper WRs, you can probably do it. At least use one of them. Mike Davis and D’Andre Swift are my favorite pivot plays. Neither will have high ownership percentages. Looking a little cheaper, Antonio Gibson is also primed for a huge game. If you have a failure to trust a stack with Alex Smith and a WR, perhaps you can use Gibson as RB2 to save some money. Both Damien Harris and his running mate Rex Burkhead could be cheap RB2 options as well. Punt options this week include Salvon Ahmed, J.D. McKissic, Melvin Gordon, and the Colts’ RBs.
Fantasy Four Pack
Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. ATL ($9200 DK, $9700 FD)
Alvin Kamara has never scored against Atlanta. That seems impossible but it is true. That will change this week as the Saints do everything possible to protect Jameis Winston. Atlanta is one of the worst teams at defending pass-catching RBs, and that is Kamara’s wheelhouse (or wheel route if you will). Kamara also proved last week that even if he is held in check on the ground, that he still can post a no yardage -multiple TD rushing performance. This is why he trails only Dalvin Cook in terms of total RB scores this year.
Dalvin Cook, Vikings vs. DAL ($9000 DK, $10500 FD)
Wow, $10.5K on FD. That will be hard to stomach. He still might reach 3X versus the biblically bad Cowboys. Houston is the only team to allow more rushing yards to opposing RBs this year. Plus, Dalvin Cook can do so much damage both on the ground and through the air. Over his last six games, Cook is averaging over 170 combo yards per game. He also has scored at least one TD in every game except last week. Heck, even missing a game and a half to injury, he has more total TDs than any other player this season.
D’Andre Swift, Lions @ CAR ($6400 DK, $6900 FD)
The real Panthers’ run defense showed its true colors again last week allowing 192-1 to Ronald Jones. Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift has surpassed all of the other Detroit RBs, and arguably all of the other rookie RBs in the league too. In his first “official start” last week, Swift posted 149 combo yards and a score. Plus, he is being used both on the ground and through the air making him even more valuable.
Mike Davis, Panthers vs. DET ($6800 DK, $7400 FD)
In the same game, Mike Davis also has the chance to re-emerge as the discount Christian McCaffrey that he was earlier this year. His usage had been shaky the last few weeks while CMAC was out, but earlier this year he was looking like a system-RB. With Teddy Bridgewater likely to miss this game, I expect Will Grier or P.J. Walker to lean on Davis both on the ground and via the dump-off pass. He isn’t $4K this week, but he will still exceed 2X value. Especially since Detroit has allowed 789 combo yards and 11 total TDs to opposing RBs over the last four games.
DFS Sleepers
Antonio Gibson, Football Team vs. CIN ($5800 DK, $6500 FD)
I called both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic last week in the sleepers section. They both went off. This matchup is just as sweet for both of them. I’m favoring Gibson this week since Cincinnati has been more amenable to RBs rushing than through the air. On the season, the Bengals are allowing more than five yards per carry to opposing RBs, while allowing only four receptions per game (McKissic’s specialty) to the position.
Salvon Ahmed, Dolphins @ DEN ($4800 DK, $5600 FD)
I admit before Week 9 I had never heard of this man. Salvon Ahmed managed to pass the undead corpse of Jordan Howard, the never-healthy Matt Breida, and the all-hype Patrick Laird on the Dolphins’ back-up RB depth chart. That was not much of a challenge. He looked serviceable last week, which is more than can be said for any of that other threesome. Obviously, when Myles Gaskin returns, Ahmed becomes a pumpkin again. Until then enjoy the ride against a Denver defense that has given up just under 300 total yards over their last two games to go along with five total TDs by opposing RBs.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | $8,600 | $9,500 |
| Julio Jones | $7,500 | $8,100 |
| Keenan Allen | $7,400 | $8,000 |
| Michael Thomas | $7,300 | $8,200 |
| A.J. Brown | $7,200 | $7,500 |
| Calvin Ridley | $7,000 | $7,800 |
| Terry McLaurin | $6,900 | $7,300 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,400 | $6,500 |
| Adam Thielen | $6,300 | $7,900 |
| Will Fuller | $6,200 | $7,100 |
| Chase Claypool | $6,100 | $6,400 |
| Jamison Crowder | $6,100 | $6,600 |
| Justin Jefferson | $6,000 | $6,700 |
| Robby Anderson | $6,000 | $6,300 |
| Diontae Johnson | $5,900 | $6,400 |
| Tee Higgins | $5,900 | $6,500 |
| Kenny Golladay | $5,800 | $7,000 |
| Marquise Brown | $5,800 | $5,900 |
| DeVante Parker | $5,700 | $6,200 |
| DJ Chark | $5,700 | $6,200 |
| DJ Moore | $5,600 | $7,100 |
| Travis Fulgham | $5,600 | $6,800 |
| Tyler Boyd | $5,600 | $6,600 |
| Jarvis Landry | $5,500 | $5,900 |
| Marvin Jones | $5,500 | $6,400 |
| Amari Cooper | $5,400 | $6,900 |
| Jerry Jeudy | $5,300 | $5,700 |
| Brandin Cooks | $5,200 | $6,100 |
| Mike Williams | $5,100 | $5,900 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $5,000 | $5,800 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $4,900 | $5,600 |
| Jakobi Meyers | $4,900 | $6,000 |
| Corey Davis | $4,800 | $5,900 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $4,800 | $5,800 |
| Tim Patrick | $4,800 | $5,500 |
| Curtis Samuel | $4,700 | $5,600 |
| Allen Lazard | $4,600 | $5,500 |
| Michael Pittman | $4,500 | $5,500 |
| Rashard Higgins | $4,500 | $5,400 |
| Willie Snead | $4,500 | $5,200 |
| Zach Pascal | $4,400 | $5,300 |
| Breshad Perriman | $4,300 | $5,700 |
| Jalen Reagor | $4,300 | $5,600 |
| T.Y. Hilton | $4,200 | $5,400 |
| Greg Ward | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| Russell Gage | $3,900 | $5,100 |
| Keelan Cole | $3,800 | $5,300 |
| Marvin Hall | $3,800 | $5,100 |
| Danny Amendola | $3,700 | $5,200 |
| Michael Gallup | $3,700 | $5,400 |
| A.J. Green | $3,600 | $5,500 |
| KJ Hamler | $3,600 | $5,200 |
| Laviska Shenault | $3,600 | $5,000 |
| N’Keal Harry | $3,600 | $5,300 |
| Randall Cobb | $3,600 | $5,100 |
| Damiere Byrd | $3,500 | $5,300 |
| Jakeem Grant | $3,500 | $4,600 |
| Cam Sims | $3,300 | $5,000 |
| Denzel Mims | $3,300 | $5.400 |
| Steven Sims | $3,000 | $4,600 |
Wide Receiver
Weekly strategy – Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas are the top two options this week. One of the two should be your WR1. Pivots from those two would be Terry McLaurin or JuJu Smith-Schuster. I also like both of the Falcons, but deciding which one will have the better game this week is tough. For WR2 I really like Jamison Crowder, Justin Jefferson, and perhaps my favorite play of the week Diontae Johnson. If you choose to throw big money at RB2, you could choose your top two WRs from this group. There are several cheaper WR3 options. I like both Eagles, Breshad Perriman, and Jakobi Meyers the most. If you need to drop into punt-range to save money here, I’d suggest Jakeem Grant or one of the Simses for the Football Team.
Fantasy Four Pack
Keenan Allen, Chargers vs. NYJ ($7400 DK, $8000 FD)
The Jets have struggled against both #1 WRs and possession-style WRs. Keenan Allen fits both of those descriptions. Allen has scored in four of his last five games. The one exception was when he went off for 10-125 against Jacksonville. Double-digit receptions, the century mark, and a score are all in play here.
Michael Thomas, Saints vs. ATL ($7300 DK, $8200 FD)
Michael Thomas failed in a nearly sure thing spot last week. I put the blame on the lack of practice snaps for Jameis Winston. Thomas was on the field quite a bit, he just didn’t see the target share that we expect when Drew Brees is under center. Only Seattle has allowed more receiving yards to opposing WRs. Bigger-bodied WRs have absolutely dominated Atlanta all season. We’ll see more of the same here.
Terry McLaurin, Football Team vs. CIN ($6900 DK, $7300 FD)
Terry McLaurin is still getting value pricing despite posting seven or more catches six times this year. He has been particularly on fire the last three weeks posting 21-300-2. Cincinnati has allowed a league-high seven WR touchdowns to go along with 660 WR receiving yards over the last four weeks, despite having their bye fall in that span. Most of that damage was done by WR1s, but secondary WRs have had success too, so if you need a punt play consider one of the Simses.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers @ JAX ($6400 DK, $6500 FD)
As lengthy as 2020 has been, it seems like years have passed since earlier this year when JuJu Smith-Schuster was not being targeted. Since Week 7, JuJu has seen a league third-high 42 targets. This has come despite the presence of James Washington, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool. He also trails only Davante Adams in receptions during that stretch. I mentioned up above about the Steelers game plan switch recently to throwing, throwing, and more throwing. This benefits all of Big Ben’s weapons. In five of their last six games, Jacksonville has allowed two or more WRs from each of their opponents to post big scores. One of those this week will be JuJu the other will be…
DFS Sleepers
Diontae Johnson, Steelers @ JAX ($5900 DK, $6400 FD)
…Diontae Johnson. Diontae has played only five full games this year thanks to a series of early year injuries. In those five games, he is averaging double-digit targets. That will give him an easy 7-75-1 here. There is a part of me that wants to Triple-stack Big Ben and both of his top two WRs. At the very least, make sure you have one of them in your lineup.
Jalen Reagor, Eagles @ CLE ($4300 DK, $5600 FD)
Over their last two games, Jalen Reagor leads all Eagles’ skill position players in targets and he is second in receptions and receiving yards. Part of that was tight coverage on Travis Fulgham, but in his case that comes with being a “WR1”. Cleveland has allowed multiple non-WR1s to post big games this year including Willie Snead, Dontrelle Inman, “The Other” Mike Thomas, Cee Dee Lamb, and Marcus Johnson. Reagor will be the next subordinate WR to post a big score against this defense. At this price, he is almost a must-play at WR3. He also should have lower ownership than Fulgham, who I like this week as well.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | $4,900 | $6,500 |
| Jonnu Smith | $4,700 | $5,800 |
| Hunter Henry | $4,600 | $5,500 |
| Noah Fant | $4,500 | $5,700 |
| Hayden Hurst | $4,400 | $5,500 |
| Mike Gesicki | $4,300 | $5,300 |
| T.J. Hockenson | $4,200 | $6,000 |
| Jared Cook | $4,100 | $6,100 |
| Eric Ebron | $4,000 | $5,400 |
| Austin Hooper | $3,900 | $5,100 |
| Dallas Goedert | $3,800 | $5,800 |
| Zach Ertz | $3,700 | $6,000 |
| Dalton Schultz | $3,600 | $5,000 |
| Richard Rodgers | $3,500 | $5,000 |
| Irv Smith | $3,400 | $5,100 |
| Logan Thomas | $3,300 | $5,200 |
| Kyle Rudolph | $3,200 | $4,500 |
| Taysom Hill | XXXX | $4,500 |
| Robert Tonyan | $3,200 | $5,600 |
| Trey Burton | $3,100 | $5,200 |
| Darren Fells | $2,900 | $5,000 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | $2,900 | $4,900 |
| Drew Sample | $2,700 | $4,600 |
| Jack Doyle | $2,500 | $4,700 |
| Jordan Akins | $2,500 | $4,900 |
Tight End
Weekly strategy – At Mark Andrews’ price on DK, it is hard to not see him as a value. The FD price is not quite as appealing but he still has potential for 3X based on the matchup. The safer and cheaper option would be Hunter Henry. Jared Cook also has a great DK price and matchup but a less appealing FD price. Cheaper options that I Like are Logan Thomas, Irv Smith, and Darren Fells. Robert Tonyan could also have an increase in value if Davante Adams cannot play. Worse than usual, the floor pricing at FD is higher than the top pricing on DK. If you don’t use the underpriced Henry, I’d recommend punting on FD with Taysom Hill. At Hill’s price, his floor is safe and he has a higher ceiling than anyone else.
Fantasy Four Pack
Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. DEN ($4900 DK, $6500 FD)
It really shows the state of the TE position this week when Mark Andrews is the highest-priced option at under $5K on DK. Even $6.5K on FD doesn’t seem too high. Andrews doesn’t have to worry about Nick Boyle vulturing him anymore. Despite the vultures, Andrews leads the Ravens in receiving TDs and receptions and is second in targets and receiving yards. Without Boyle for part of the game, Andrews finished with 7-61 on nine targets last week. Repeat that and add a TD and he blows away 3X.
Hunter Henry, Chargers vs. NYJ ($4600 DK, $5500 FD)
Hunter Henry hasn’t topped four catches nor 40 yards since Week 3. That said, he does have two TDs during that stretch. So why do I like him so much this week? He is facing a Jets’ defense that has allowed a league fourth-high six tight end scores despite facing only a couple of elite TEs. As underwhelming as Henry has been, he is more talented than seven of the nine top-TEs that New York has faced. A score is a lock here, and I like Henry to bump up to the 6-60 range in what I see as a shootout.
Jared Cook, Saints vs. ATL ($4100 DK, $6100 FD)
Much like Henry, Jared Cook has been rotten the last two games since Michael Thomas returned. Still, before that, he had scored in three straight games and four of five. He remains a huge target for Jameis Winston in the red zone, and at this price on DK, he can hit 3X with a pair of catches and a score. Obviously, the FD price is high based on his possible floor, but Atlanta has allowed the most TE touchdowns, and the second-most TE receptions and receiving yards.
Jonnu Smith, Titans @ BAL ($4700 DK, $5800 FD)
Jonnu Smith joins the list of disappointing TEs in the top-4 this week. In Smith’s defense, he at least has scored in both of the last two weeks. He also leads all TEs in total touchdowns for the year. Yes, Jonnu has more TDs than either George Kittle or Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews or T.J. Hockenson. With so few good selections to choose from this week, you may just want to go with one that is TD-dependent. The Ravens have given up a few TE scores to TD-dependent guys this year and quality TEs like Kelce have put up decent overall lines against them as well.
DFS Sleepers
Logan Thomas, Football Team vs. CIN ($3300 DK, $5200 FD)
Logan Thomas is tied with Terry McLaurin for the Washington Football Team lead with three receiving scores. He also ranks third on the team in both targets and receptions and second in receiving yards. Meanwhile, Cincy has allowed big games to three of the last five TE groups they have faced. I’m going to have a hard time deciding who to fade for Washington this week.
Taysom Hill, Saints vs. ATL ($XXXX DK, $4500 FD)
Obviously, you are not starting Taysom Hill on DK at QB. That said, it will be nearly impossible to not start Hill on FD at TE. First off, his price is lower than virtually everyone else. We know he will have at the minimum his gadget play snaps, which have accounted for RB3/4 numbers the last couple of weeks. We also know that the team is not shy about bringing him in to play QB in the red zone. The rub here will come if Jameis Winston gets hurt or gets picked off three times in the first quarter (which could happen). If that occurs, then you get QB-level statistical production out of your bargain-basement TE.
[lawrence-newsletter]
