Falcons Dolphins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

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The Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins open their preseasons Friday. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Falcons vs. Dolphins odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Atlanta finished last season with a 7-10 record, good for 3rd in the NFC South. The Falcons signed QB Kirk Cousins in March and rehired coach Raheem Morris, who held multiple positions within the organization during the 2015-2020 seasons, in January. With the 8th overall pick in the NFL Draft, the team selected QB Michael Penix Jr. out of Washington.

Miami finished 11-6 last season, tied for the best record in the AFC East, but lost a tiebreaking Week 18 matchup to the Buffalo Bills for the division. It made the playoffs, but did not last long after falling 26-7 in the Wild Card round against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins signed WR Odell Beckham Jr. to a 1-year contract in the offseason and extended both QB Tua Tagovailoa and WR Jaylen Waddle. The team added DE Chop Robinson with the 21st overall pick in the draft.

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Falcons at Dolphins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Falcons -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Dolphins +125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Falcons -2.5 (-110) | Dolphins +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 38.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Falcons at Dolphins picks and predictions

Prediction

Falcons 24, Dolphins 20

Moneyline

PASS.

There is better value on Falcons’ spread.

Against the spread

BET FALCONS -2.5 (-110).

While Miami should have the better regular season, Atlanta has a deeper QB room which holds more weight during the preseason. The Falcons have already announced QB Kirk Cousins will see minimal playing time during the preseason, but Penix should see the field a lot, which is great for the Falcons’ offensive abilities.

Over/Under

BET OVER 38.5 (-110).

The Falcons scored 13 or more points in 2 of their 3 preseason games last year, while the Dolphins put up 18 or more in 2 of their 3. While both teams may get out to slow starts, they have solid backups looking to prove themselves, including QBs capable of operating high-performing offenses.

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Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins odds and lines, with expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Falcons will travel to face the Miami Dolphins on Friday to kickstart their 2023 preseason schedule at Hard Rock Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Falcons vs. Dolphins odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Falcons registered a 7-10 record in 2022, which was only 1 game behind the division-winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There is more excitement surrounding Atlanta in 2023 with QB Desmond Ridder getting the nod under center and the arrival of rookie RB Bijan Robinson.

The Dolphins seemed poised for a postseason berth in 2022 before QB Tua Tagovailoa dealt with various injuries. In Mike McDaniel’s second year as head coach, Miami could push for contention this season despite All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey missing time due to undergoing knee surgery recently.

Neither team is expected to play starters for an extended period of time in Friday’s exhibition contest.

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Falcons at Dolphins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Falcons -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Dolphins +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread (ATS): Falcons -2.5 (-110) | Dolphins +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 36 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Falcons at Dolphins picks and predictions

Prediction

Dolphins 24, Falcons 20

Moneyline

While the Falcons have Robinson making his preseason debut, I’ll take the DOLPHINS (+115) at home Friday. Arthur Smith and McDaniel both went 2-1 in the preseason in 2022, though, the depth that Miami now has makes me lean toward the home squad.

Against the spread

DOLPHINS +2.5 (-110) is the pick here as QB Mike White should get decent run as the backup for Miami. The Dolphins’ lone preseason loss last year was a 2-point defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders.

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Over/Under

OVER 36 (-110) is how I’d bet on the total with Ridder potentially getting the start in his first full season as the starter. The Dolphins will likely rest the majority of their starters, but McDaniel is capable of dialing up points with his backups.

The Falcons posted 27 or more points in 2 of their 3 preseason matchups in 2022. Meanwhile, the Dolphins scored 26 or more points in 2 of their 3 preseason contests a year ago, including 48 points on the Philadelphia Eagles in the preseason finale.

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Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Falcons (2-3) visit the Miami Dolphins (1-5) Sunday. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium. Below, we look at the Falcons vs. Dolphins odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

Miami is home underdogs to a weak Falcons team fresh off a loss in London, England, to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa returned last week after a brief stint on IR and threw for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The Dolphins struggled to get much going with their injury-riddled roster. This will be a massive game for them as they try to improve on their horrific start to the 2021 season.

The Falcons have only beaten teams from New York as they’ve downed both the Jets and Giants by 7 or fewer points.

Teams have been able to get to QB Matt Ryan as the Falcons don’t field a terrific offensive line, and WR Calvin Ridley hasn’t had the breakout season many were expecting.

Falcons at Dolphins odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:55 p.m. ET.

Money line: Falcons -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Dolphins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Against the spread (ATS): Falcons -2.5 (-108) | Dolphins +2.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Falcons at Dolphins key injuries

Falcons

OLB Dante Fowler Jr. (knee) out

Dolphins

WR DeVante Parker (hamstring) questionable
CB Byron Jones (groin) questionable
CB Xavien Howard (groin) questionable
C Greg Mancz (groin) questionable

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Falcons at Dolphins odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Dolphins 24, Falcons 17

Money line

BET on the DOLPHINS (+105) as the best value in this game.

The Dolphins were heavily injured when they took on Jacksonville, and at the very least, Howard and Jones are now listed as questionable.

Bringing back Tua is also huge as he’s just a far greater playmaker than backup QB Jacoby Brissett. Tua led the Dolphins to a victory the New England Patriots in their season opener.

Tua was excellent in his return against a relatively underrated Jaguars team, and with an extra week of reps under his belt, he should be able to take control of this game. Wideout Devante Parker remains questionable and hasn’t taken the field since Week 5.

I’d feel comfortable backing Miami if they can return just two of their three key players.

Miami has given up the 30th most yards in the league, but if its healthy, this team is still a borderline playoff contender. I’d wait to bet this and see if Howard or Jones plays as they’ll hopefully be able to cover Ridley.

Against the spread

PASS on the spread with a slight lean to the Dolphins +2.5 (-112). However, I’d prefer to hit the money line over snagging a couple of points as the value at plus-money is better.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 47.5 (-108).

Ryan and the Falcons haven’t exposed many teams, and star rookie TE Kyle Pitts hasn’t quite been targeted like most expected. Ridley also hasn’t taken over in Julio Jones’ absence.

Ridley has yet to eclipse 100 yards despite having double-digit targets in three games.

Partially due to its lacking offensive line moving the ball has been a struggle for Atlanta. With Miami also one of the bottom three teams in yards per game, expect this game to be relatively slow-paced.

Both teams rank in the bottom 15 in points per game as neither average over 21 per game. I’d be hard-pressed to back them combining for more than 47.

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Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins preseason Week 2 matchup, with NFL odds, lines, picks, predictions and best bets.

The Atlanta Falcons (0-1) and Miami Dolphins (0-1) head into their second game of the NFL preseason off of a week of joint practices. The Dolphins will have the modest home-field advantage at Hard Rock Stadium for Saturday’s 7 p.m. ET kickoff. Below, we look at the Falcons vs. Dolphins odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Falcons suffered a 23-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans on their home field last week. Veteran backup QB AJ McCarron and rookie Feleipe Franks split snaps and went a combined 7-for-21 for just 21 net yards and no touchdowns through the air; however, Franks added 76 rushing yards on 4 carries.

The Dolphins took a 20-13 loss on the road against the Chicago Bears. Second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa was an efficient 8-for-11 for 99 yards with 1 interception, while backups Jacoby Brissett and Reid Sinnett were 6-for-10 on the day.

Falcons at Dolphins odds, spread and lines

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:52 a.m. ET.

Money line: Falcons +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Dolphins -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Falcons +4.5 (-115) | Dolphins -4.5 (-105)
Total: 37.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Falcons at Dolphins odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Dolphins 20, Falcons 13

Money line

The Falcons played few starters on either side of the ball last week and didn’t see much of promise from either McCarron or Franks in the backup quarterback battle. Rookie TE Kyle Pitts may get his first taste of game action this week, but QB Matt Ryan is unlikely to see much – if any – time.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins could keep giving reps to Tagovailoa to get the second-year signal-caller more meaningful practice with his new additions on offense. The competition for the Dolphins’ leading running back role is also likely to continue between Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed as both played well last week.

Still, we need to PASS on the steep money line price for the Dolphins. There’s a much better payout to be had with the spread.

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Against the spread

Back the DOLPHINS -4.5 (-105) for a win by 5 or more points. The Falcons were blown out at home last week and new head coach Arthur Smith showed little desire to see his first-teamers as he focuses on depth position battles in his first preseason with the team.

Over/Under

Back the UNDER 37.5 (-125) with both these teams playing well below this total last week and the defenses having had a week of practice against at least some of the different offensive combinations they’ll see Saturday.

The Dolphins are bringing back an experienced defensive core from last season while the Falcons’ defensive players should be highly motivated while competing for multiple openings within the Week 1 roster.

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Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins odds and lines: Tua, ‘Phins favored at home

Assessing the odds and lines for Saturday’s NFL preseason contest between the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins.

The Atlanta Falcons (0-1) visit the Miami Dolphins (0-1) Saturday in Week 2 of the NFL preseason. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium. Below, we look at the Falcons at Dolphins odds and lines.

The Falcons didn’t play any key offensive starters in their 23-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans last week. Backup QBs AJ McCarron and Feleipe Franks split the snaps with McCarron going 5-for-12 for 36 yards and 1 interception and Franks completing just 2 of 9 pass attempts for 16 yards but adding 76 yards on the ground.

The Dolphins took a 20-13 loss on the road against the Chicago Bears in Week 1. Second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa went 8-for-11 for 99 yards with 1 interception. Backup signal-callers Jacoby Brissett and Reid Sinnett both went 6-for-10 with Brissett completing a touchdown pass to RB Salvon Ahmed.

Expect to see both teams stick with backups in Week 2 with position battles heating up in the abbreviated three-week preseason.

Falcons at Dolphins: Odds, spread and line

Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 12:53 p.m. ET.

Money line: Falcons +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Dolphins -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Falcons +3.5, -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Dolphins -3.5, +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Total: 36.5, Over -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Under +100 (bet $100 to win $100)

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2020 betting stats:

ATS: Falcons 7-9 | Dolphins 11-5
O/U: Falcons 7-9 | Dolphins 7-9

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New to NFL betting?

The +140 odds for the underdog Falcons represent a 41.67% implied win probability. Those odds can also be expressed as a fraction of 7/5 or a decimal of 2.40. Atlanta must win, tie or lose by no more than 3 points in order for a +3.5 (-130) bet against the spread to cash.

The Dolphins (-170) are slight home favorites with an implied win probability of 62.96%. Those odds can be seen as a decimal of 1.59 or a fraction of 10/17. They must win by at least 4 points in order to cover the -3.5-point spread.

Atlanta and Miami would need to combine to score 37 or more points in order to cash the OVER on the projected total of 36.5 points. A combined point total of 36 or fewer points is a win for the Under (+100). The odds suggest a higher-scoring game by favoring the Over (-125).

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