Tag: ESPN FPI

Two SEC teams on top in ESPN’s FPI Rankings

ESPN has released their FPI rankings, and there are two SEC teams at the top, but Georgia is not one of them

ESPN’s updated FPI (Football Power Index) rankings are out. After the Georgia Bulldogs’ 41-34 defeat to the Alabama Crimson Tide, UGA fell even further. Now, there are two teams atop the rankings after Week 5.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the FPI top 25 rankings, there are nine teams in the SEC, including five of the top six, showing how much competition Georgia has to deal with in the best conference in college football.

The FPI rankings have two teams tied for the top spot: Texas and Alabama. Alabama has the tiebreaker in strength of record because of their win against Georgia, but Texas has looked equally strong, with a +38 point differential and a top 10 win against Michigan on their ledger.

ESPN’s Top 25 FPI Rankings after Week 5

John David Mercer-Imagn Images
  1. Texas (27.9 FPI)
  2. Alabama (27.9 FPI)
  3. Ohio State (26.9 FPI)
  4. Georgia (25.2 FPI)
  5. Tennessee (23.6 FPI)
  6. Ole Miss (21.8 FPI)
  7. Notre Dame (19.3 FPI)
  8. Penn State (18.8 FPI)
  9. Oregon (18.4 FPI)
  10. Miami (17.9 FPI)
  11. USC (15.7 FPI)
  12. Louisville (15.3 FPI)
  13. Clemson (15.1 FPI)
  14. Missouri (14.1 FPI)
  15. LSU (13.9 FPI)
  16. Indiana (13.4 FPI)
  17. Oklahoma (12.2 FPI)
  18. Texas A&M (11.9 FPI)
  19. SMU (11.3 FPI)
  20. Kansas State (11.2 FPI)
  21. Boise State (10.9 FPI)
  22. Iowa State (10.6 FPI)
  23. Kentucky (9.5 FPI)
  24. Iowa (9.3 FPI)
  25. South Carolina (9.1 FPI)

Duke Blue Devils move within top 60 in ESPN’s Football Power Index after UNC win

Where are the undefeated Duke Blue Devils ranked in ESPN’s Football Power Index through five games?

The Duke football team keeps winning games, and as a result, the ESPN Football Power Index keeps moving the Blue Devils higher and higher.

After their 20-point comeback over the North Carolina Tar Heels clinched their first 5-0 start in thirty years, the Blue Devils moved up six spots to No. 59 in the FPI rankings.

After starting the season right on the edge of bowl eligibility with 6.0 projected wins, Duke head coach [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] needs to win just one of his final seven games to reach the postseason. ESPN Analytics gives him and his team a 97.5% chance to pick up a sixth win, and the Blue Devils’ projected win total moved up to 8.0.

The Miami Hurricanes dropped three spots to 10th after a near-loss to Virginia Tech at home, but they remain the highest ACC team in ESPN’s math. The Louisville Cardinals and Clemson Tigers follow close behind in 12th and 13th, respectively.

The Blue Devils are 10th out of 17 ACC teams in the rankings.

Wisconsin rises in ESPN FPI after blowout loss to No. 13 USC Trojans

ESPN FPI saw Saturday’s game as a step in the right direction

This may come as a surprise to those who watched Wisconsin’s 38-21 loss to No. 13 USC on Saturday: The Badgers rose four spots in the ESPN FPI after the contest, from No. 66 in the nation to No. 62.

The team’s FPI rating improved from 0.3 to 0.7, moving it past Florida State, Michigan State and others.

Related: Takeaways from Wisconsin’s blowout loss to No. 13 USC, the current state of the Badgers program

While the game’s final score and the Badgers’ disappearance in the second half paint an ugly picture of the current state of the team and program, FPI views the performance as a slight step in the right direction.

This ratings upgrade likely speaks more to where the team had fallen before Saturday’s contest. The Badgers barely defeated Western Michigan and South Dakota, two lightly regarded nonconference opponents. Those narrow victories sent the team from the mid-30s to the 60s. The blowout loss to No. 4 Alabama continued that slide.

Wisconsin showed some signs of life early against USC. The team led 21-10 at halftime after it connected on explosive plays on offense, ran the ball well and forced three USC turnovers. The 28-0 second-half margin, however, reversed any progress made.

But in the eyes of ESPN FPI, the overall performance was a slight improvement.

FPI projects the Badgers to finish with a final record of 4.9 — 7.1, with only a 32.2% chance to finish the season with six wins. Up next is a home matchup against Purdue, FPI’s 99th team in the country.

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Duke football climbs closer to the middle of the ACC in ESPN FPI rankings

The Duke Blue Devils are one of the last unbeaten teams in the ACC, but ESPN FPI still seemingly wants to see more before promoting them.

Despite an undefeated run through non-conference play that included a road win over a Power Four program, ESPN FPI remains pessimistic about the Duke Blue Devils.

At the conclusion of Week 4, after a 45-17 win over Middle Tennessee, the Blue Devils moved up only six spots to 65th in the country.

The small boost did shift Duke closer to the middle of the ACC, but that stemmed from other failures around the conference more than anything else. The North Carolina Tar Heels dropped 11 spots to 69th after a 70-50 loss to James Madison, and Syracuse slid down nine spots to 68th after a home loss to Stanford.

As of Monday, the Blue Devils are 11th out of 17 ACC teams in ESPN’s rankings.

ESPN Analytics does, however, really like Duke’s chances to make a bowl game. The Blue Devils are projected to win 7.4 games this season, and the math thinks that first-year head coach Manny Diaz has a 90.2% chance to reach the college football postseason.

Wisconsin falling in both ESPN FPI and SP+ entering big game at USC

Wisconsin steady in both ESPN FPI and SP+ entering big game at USC

Wisconsin fell slightly in both ESPN FPI and SP+ after its Week 4 bye.

The Badgers fell one spot in FPI, from No. 65 to No. 66. It also dropped three spots in SP+ from No. 50 to No. 53.

Related: Big Ten Power Rankings after Week 4: Michigan is alive

Neither standings are near where the Badgers began the season. They were a consensus top-30 team, at the least, with significant improvement expected in the second year under Luke Fickell.

Mild struggles in nonconference matchups against Western Michigan and South Dakota began the downward trend. A 42-10 home blowout loss to No. 4 Alabama only accelerated it.

The bad news: SP+ works to be predictive and forward-looking. So Wisconsin’s current standing predicts some upcoming struggles against a challenging Big Ten schedule.

The good news: plenty of opportunities remain for the Badgers to improve their standing.

The first opportunity for a statement victory comes this weekend at USC. Wisconsin finding an upset road win with improved play on both sides of the football would instantly alter the narrative surrounding its season.

Importantly, it would start to return the team to where many expected it to be in year two under Fickell. A middling ranking from No. 50 to No. 65 in the nation is far from that expected mark.

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LSU moving up ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings after UCLA win

The Tigers are moving up in both the polls and the analytics-based power rankings this week.

LSU’s Week 4 win over UCLA was enough to see it climb several spots in both the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 on Sunday, and it now ranks in the top 15 in both.

ESPN’s Football Power Index hasn’t been quite as high on the Tigers so far this season, but it did give them a bump after a three-score win over a Big Ten program. Now, LSU ranks inside the top 20 after a three-spot rise, coming in at No. 19.

FPI can certainly have some early-season quirks, illustrated by the fact that Notre Dame remains ranked in the top 10 despite its loss to Northern Illinois.

The Tigers could continue to climb these rankings over the next two weeks as they face South Alabama on Saturday ahead of a bye. Then, it’s a crucial showdown against Ole Miss at home that could determine LSU’s playoff hopes.

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ESPN FPI predicts LSU’s Week 4 game against UCLA

ESPN’s Football Power Index likes LSU’s odds of winning on Saturday against the Bruins.

The Tigers fell behind early in Week 3 but overcame a 17-0 deficit to beat South Carolina on the road. Now, LSU returns to Baton Rouge to host UCLA in an SEC vs. Big Ten matchup at Tiger Stadium.

Coach Brian Kelly’s team is a heavy favorite against a rebuilding Bruins squad. UCLA is 1-1 on the year and coming off an ugly 42-13 loss to Indiana at home. The road doesn’t get much easier as it now takes on a ranked SEC opponent.

ESPN’s Football Power Index is also high on the Tigers in this one. It gives LSU an 87.9% chance to win the game as they rank No. 22 in the power index while the Bruins rank just 81st.

This is something of a tuneup for the Tigers before they face South Alabama in what should be another followed by a bye. After that, it’s an all-important home game against what could be a top-five Ole Miss team.

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Georgia football falls significantly in ESPN’s Week 3 FPI rankings

UGA’s recent 13-12 win at Kentucky is a big reason why ESPN dropped Georgia in their latest FPI rankings.

ESPN released their FPI rankings following Week 3 and the Georgia Bulldogs have fallen from the No. 1 spot. After a rough 13-12 win over the Kentucky Wildcats, many media outlets, including Joel Klatt, dropped the Bulldogs down in their respective rankings.

According to ESPN, FPI (football power index) is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the top 25 rankings, there are nine teams in the SEC, including five of the top six, showing how much competition the Bulldogs have to deal with in the best conference in college football.

Texas has looked like the complete package in the SEC so far, dominating UTSA even without Quinn Ewers for most of the game. Their 31-12 win against No. 10 Michigan on the road was extremely impressive.

Meanwhile, Alabama earned the No. 2 spot after defeating Wisconsin 42-10. They still have yet to play a ranked opponent, but they’ll get tested against Georgia in Week 5. Both Georgia and Alabama have bye weeks ahead of their Sept. 28 game.

Tennessee finished No. 4 after throttling Kent State 71-0. They have yet to play an SEC opponent, but their best win was against No. 24 N.C. State 51-10

There is real possibility that Georgia could slip in these rankings even further, since they have a bye. Their matchup against Alabama in Week 5 will be seismic in these rankings and for Georgia’s SEC championship hopes.

ESPN’s Top 25 FPI Rankings after Week 3

Photo per Austin American-Statesman
  1. Texas (28.5 FPI)
  2. Alabama (28.2 FPI)
  3. Ohio State (26.2 FPI)
  4. Tennessee (24.4 FPI)
  5. Georgia (23.7 FPI)
  6. Ole Miss (22.7 FPI)
  7. Notre Dame (19.9 FPI)
  8. Miami (17.9 FPI)
  9. Penn State (17.7 FPI)
  10. Missouri (17.4 FPI)
  11. Oregon (17.1 FPI)
  12. USC (16.8 FPI)
  13. Louisville (14.7 FPI)
  14. Oklahoma (13.5 FPI)
  15. Texas A&M (13.4 FPI)
  16. Clemson (13.0 FPI)
  17. Kansas State (12.8 FPI)
  18. UCF (12.7 FPI)
  19. Indiana (12.1 FPI)
  20. Oklahoma State (10.9 FPI)
  21. Michigan (10.7 FPI)
  22. LSU (10.7 FPI)
  23. Boston College (10.2 FPI)
  24. Utah (10.1 FPI)
  25. Nebraska (9.1 FPI)

Duke football takes small tumble in ESPN FPI after Week 3 win over Connecticut

The Duke football team needed a fourth-quarter comeback to take down Connecticut on Saturday night, and ESPN FPI seemed unimpressed.

The Duke football team managed to overcome a four-point deficit in the fourth quarter against Connecticut on Saturday, but ESPN’s Football Power Index still punished the Blue Devils for the performance.

Head coach [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] and his team dropped seven spots down to 71st in the FPI rankings, the fourth-lowest team in the Atlantic Coast Conference through Week 3.

The small drop seems fair when fans consider that the Huskies lost to Maryland by 43 points in the first game of the season. Duke played UConn like they should have early on, scoring the first 17 points of the game, but an unlucky pick-six and two straight touchdown drives to open the second half pulled Connecticut ahead again.

Despite the slight demotion, ESPN Analytics still likes Duke’s chances to reach the postseason. The Blue Devils are projected to win 6.7 games this season, and FPI thinks they have a 77% chance to make a bowl game.

ESPN FPI gives Wisconsin a slim chance at beating Alabama on Saturday

ESPN FPI gives Wisconsin a slim chance at beating Alabama on Saturday

College football analysts and metrics are not giving Wisconsin much of a chance at upsetting No. 4-ranked Alabama on Saturday.

We at Badgers Wire have outlined Wisconsin’s biggest keys to an upset victory and why Wisconsin can win. But nationally, not many are giving the Badgers much of a chance. It is likely to create a screenshot from College GameDay where the entire panel chooses the same team to win (Alabama)

Related: 10 keys to Wisconsin Badgers pulling a program-defining upset against Alabama

ESPN FPI captures the national attitude entering Saturday’s big game. FPI and ESPN Analytics currently give Alabama a 92.2% chance of winning, with Wisconsin all the way down at 7.8%.

Those numbers are down significantly from ESPN FPI’s predictions in the preseason (Wisconsin at 18.7%) and after Week 1 (Wisconsin at 9.4%). It’s reasonable to infer that the metrics have not been impressed by the Badgers’ slow start to the season.

The beauty of sports: the pregame projections mean very little once the game begins. College football is defined by upsets and surprising results. The Badgers have a chance to shock the sporting world with a win on Saturday afternoon.

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