Tag: ESPN FPI

Where is Georgia football in ESPN FPI’s rankings after Week 12

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives more respect to Georgia after UGA’s win over Tennessee

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) rankings are out after Week 12’s college football action, which featured some massive turnover in the SEC and the Big 12.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the FPI, nine of the top 25 teams are in the SEC, including five of the top 10.

The Georgia Bulldogs’ 31-17 win over the Tennessee Volunteers rises them up to No. 5. Georgia now have two wins against teams in the top 10. The Bulldogs have a playoff spot locked up if they win their next two games. Meanwhile, the Volunteers are more than likely on the outside looking in, despite placing No. 9 on this list.

The BYU Cougars stunningly lost last week to Kansas. BYU still has the top conference record in the Big 12, but there are three Big 12 teams above them in the FPI rankings. The Cougars are not in the FPI top 25, so ESPN doesn’t buy them being legitimate contenders.

Another Big 12 team, Kansas State, suffered the biggest fall of anyone on this list, dropping six spots after a rough 24-14 loss to the Arizona State Sun Devils, who are just outside of the top 25. Louisville also dropped four spots after a wild 38-35 loss to 2-7 Stanford where Louisville Cardinals blew a 35-21 lead.

Week 13 features Indiana versus Ohio State, a matchup that will go a long way in deciding the Big Ten championship race. The Hoosiers have been dominant offensively, but Ohio State is their first ranked opponent.

ESPN’s FPI Top 25 after Week 12

Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
  1. Texas (26.7 FPI)
  2. Alabama (26.6 FPI)
  3. Ohio State (25.3 FPI)
  4. Notre Dame (23.3 FPI)
  5. Georgia (23 FPI)
  6. Ole Miss (22.4 FPI)
  7. Penn State (20.7 FPI)
  8. Oregon (20.6 FPI)
  9. Tennessee (19.3 FPI)
  10. Miami (17.9 FPI)
  11. Indiana (17.7 FPI)
  12. Clemson (15.3 FPI)
  13. South Carolina (14.5 FPI)
  14. Texas A&M (14.4 FPI)
  15. SMU (13.9 FPI)
  16. USC (13.5 FPI)
  17. Louisville (13.4 FPI)
  18. Tulane (13.3 FPI)
  19. LSU (13.1 FPI)
  20. Colorado (12.7 FPI)
  21. Boise State (12 FPI)
  22. Iowa (11.5 FPI)
  23. Iowa State (11.3 FPI)
  24. Missouri (11 FPI)
  25. Kansas State (10.7 FPI)

Texas A&M rises in newest Football Power Index rankings

Texas A&M has risen one spot in the newest ESPN FPI rankings after Week 12.

Texas A&M (8-2, 5-1 SEC) and first-year head coach Mike Elko have continued to defy preseason expectations. The Aggies are two wins away from reaching the SEC Championship Game for the first time in program history, but that’s a tall task with a road trip to Auburn and the season finale home test vs. Texas left on the schedule.

After defeating New Mexico State 38-3, Texas A&M’s offense made some strides in the passing game, while redshirt freshman quarterback Marcel Reed finished 20/31 for 286 yards and two touchdowns, rushing for another score.

Defensively, junior DL Malick Sylla, in just his second statistical appearance this season, recorded a game-high two sacks and three tackles for loss. At the same time, sophomore DL Rylan Kennedy earned the highest defensive Pro Football Focus score.

Ahead of facing Auburn, ESPN’s Football Power Index update saw the Aggies rise one spot, while the Auburn Tigers and Florida Gators also rose in the rankings.

Texas A&M football’s FPI ranking, rating

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Texas A&M rose to No. 14 after defeating New Mexico State, with a 14.4 FPI rating, the seventh-highest among SEC teams. The Aggies are projected to win 8.8 games and have a 2.8% chance of winning out. Sitting at 8-2 and 5-1, A&M currently has a 12.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.1% chance of making the National Championship game.

SEC team in FPI

The top-ranked SEC teams in the upper echelon of the rankings include Texas (26.7), followed by Alabama (2nd, 26.6), Georgia (23.0) at 5th, Ole Miss (22.4) at 6th, and Tennessee (19.3) in the 9th spot.

South Carolina rose one spot (14.5) after defeating Missouri, while LSU (13.1) dropped three spots after falling to Florida on the road in a College Football Playoff elimination game. Here is the rest of the SEC rankings:

  • Missouri (24th, 11.0)
  • Florida (26th, 10.5)
  • Oklahoma (27th, 10.3)
  • Auburn (28th, 9.1)
  • Arkansas (32nd, 8.3)
  • Vanderbilt (38th, 6.6)
  • Mississippi State (69th, -0.0)

Texas A&M will face Auburn on the road on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 6:30 pm. CT. The game will air on ESPN.

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ESPN computer predicts Penn State win probability at Minnesota

The ESPN win probability is trending up for Penn State at the right time this weekend.

Penn State will play one final road game this regular season before closing out the season at home, and a chance to host a first-round College Football Playoff game is coming into view. Of the two final games of the regular season, the more challenging of the two continues to appear to be this week’s road game at Minnesota. But as the game has finally arrived, it seems the trends for this week’s Big Ten road trip are swinging back in Penn State’s favor at just the right time.

ESPN’s win probability figures are giving Penn State a 75.1% chance of coming home with a win against the Gophers this week. That figure is notable because the projected win probability for Penn State in this particular matchup had been decreasing on a weekly basis since the start of October.

On October 1, Penn State’s win probability was calculated at 77.9% according to ESPN’s computers. That figures dropped to 74.2% the following week, then to 72.1% the following week, and eventually down to 68.1% after Penn State lost to Ohio State.

Penn State was always viewed as the favorite according to ESPN’s calculations, but the trends were going against the Nittany Lions and favoring the Gophers. This was largely because Minnesota was stringing together some solid wins and the home-field advantage was playing a factor. But Minnesota lost its last game against Rutgers before heading into the bye week, and Penn State has dominated each of its last two opponents after losing to the Buckeyes.

Penn State opened as a nearly two-touchdown favorite this week against the Gophers. A win would put Penn State at 10-1 with one final game at home against Maryland to play. Penn State is currently in a great spot to host a first-round College Football Playoff game, and a win against Minnesota would potentially go a long way to securing a first-round playoff game in Beaver Stadium in December.

So there is a lot on the line for Penn State this weekend, even if a spot in the Big Tne championship game may be just out of reach.

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All 32 NFL teams (including the Falcons) ranked by FPI ratings

All 32 NFL teams (including the Falcons) ranked by FPI ratings entering Week 11

The Atlanta Falcons took a tumble on Sunday during the 20-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints, one of the lowliest teams in the NFL.

The Falcons had some of the same type of issues they have had in previous games with slow starts and missed opportunities, in addition to an uncharacteristic three missed field goals by Younghoe Koo.

Atlanta now holds a 0.8 FPI rating, good for 14th in the NFL. The Falcons will hit the road to take on the Denver Broncos with a -2.8 FPI rating at No. 25.

FPI is described as “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” according to ESPN.com.

“FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

So without any further delay, here’s a look at how the league’s 32 teams stack up based on FPI heading into Week 11 of the 2024 season:

  1. Detroit Lions (8-1): 7.5
  2. Baltimore Ravens (7-3): 7.0
  3. Buffalo Bills (8-2): 6.0
  4. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0): 5.4
  5. San Francisco 49ers (5-4): 4.4
  6. Green Bay Packers (6-3): 4.4
  7. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2): 4.2
  8. Minnesota Vikings (7-2): 2.3
  9. Washington Commanders (7-3): 2.0
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2): 1.9
  11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6): 1.7
  12. Arizona Cardinals (6-4): 1.5
  13. Houston Texans (6-4): 1.2
  14. Atlanta Falcons (6-4): 0.8
  15. Cincinnati Bengals (4-6): 0.7
  16. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3): 0.7
  17. New York Jets (3-7): 0.2
  18. Cleveland Browns (2-7): -0.3
  19. Los Angeles Rams (4-5): -0.4
  20. Miami Dolphins (3-6): -0.7
  21. New Orleans Saints (3-7): -1.3
  22. Seattle Seahawks (4-5): -1.4
  23. Chicago Bears (4-5): -1.4
  24. Indianapolis Colts (4-6): -1.6
  25. Denver Broncos (5-5): -2.8
  26. New York Giants (2-8): -4.6
  27. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7): -4.8
  28. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8): -5.1
  29. Tennessee Titans (2-7): -5.2
  30. New England Patriots (3-7): -6.5
  31. Carolina Panthers (3-7): -7.4
  32. Dallas Cowboys (3-6): -8.0

The Falcons will next go up against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Atlanta and Denver are set to kick off at 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 17.

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Georgia Bulldogs drop in ESPN’s Football Power Index

The Georgia Bulldogs drop in ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings after their 28-10 loss to the Ole Miss Rebels.

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) is out after Week 11’s college football action, which featured several games that shook up the ACC and SEC.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the FPI, nine of the top 25 teams are in the SEC, including five of the top 10. The SEC is again looking like the best conference in college football.

Thanks to the previously No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs’ 28-10 loss to the No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels, they slide down to No. 6. That puts them behind three teams in the SEC: Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss. Alabama earns the No. 1 spot after their dominating 42-13 win against LSU and they have the highest percentage to make the playoffs outside of Texas.

There was a major upset that took place in Georgia with the previosly undefeated Miami Hurricanes losing to Georgia Tech and hurting their ACC championship hopes.

The Yellow Jackets took a 14-10 lead in the second quarter and never let go. Miami did have a chance to drive down the field with two minutes left in the fourth, but Cam Ward was strip sacked by Tech’s Romello Height.

For Georgia Bulldogs fans, Week 12 will be a do-or-die matchup vs. the No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers. A loss could doom Georgia to miss the College Football Playoff for the second straight season.

ESPN’s FPI Top 25 after Week 11

Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
  1. Alabama (26.9 FPI)
  2. Texas (26.8 FPI)
  3. Ohio State (25.9 FPI)
  4. Notre Dame (24.1 FPI)
  5. Ole Miss (22.8 FPI)
  6. Georgia (22.2 FPI)
  7. Oregon (21.4 FPI)
  8. Penn State (20.1 FPI)
  9. Tennessee (20 FPI)
  10. Indiana (18.1 FPI)
  11. Miami (17.9 FPI)
  12. Clemson (15.4 FPI)
  13. Louisville (15.1 FPI)
  14. South Carolina (15 FPI)
  15. Texas A&M (14.7 FPI)
  16. LSU (14.3 FPI)
  17. SMU (14.3 FPI)
  18. USC (13.7 FPI)
  19. Kansas State (12 FPI)
  20. Tulane (11.8 FPI)
  21. Boise State (11.6 FPI)
  22. Colorado (11.5 FPI)
  23. Iowa (11.5 FPI)
  24. Iowa State (10.6 FPI)
  25. Missouri (10.6 FPI)

Predicting Texas A&M’s 3 remaining football games ahead of Week 12 per ESPN FPI

Here is how ESPN FPI predicts Texas A&M’s remaining three games before taking on New Mexico State

Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1 SEC) will enter Week 12 rested and ready to host New Mexico State on Saturday night in Kyle Field, as the Aggies benefited from Georgia’s loss to Ole Miss in Week 11, now tied for first with Tennessee in the SEC standings.

Texas A&M’s blowout loss to South Carolina was certainly a learning moment for first-year head coach Mike Elko and his staff, knowing that a host of issues on both sides of the ball contributed to allowing the Gamecocks to run all over the Aggie defense, mainly due to the 25 missed tackles that led to several chunk plays.

However, losing star running back Le’Veon Moss has forced OC Collin Klein to reevaluate the offense, starting with helping quarterback Marcel Reed improve in the pocket and providing the redshirt sophomore with better options in the passing game.

According to ESPN FPI, here are the latest predictions for New Mexico State, Auburn (on the road), and the season finale vs. Texas.

Texas A&M vs. New Mexico State

Date: Nov. 16

Location: College Station, Kyle Field

ESPN Matchup Predictor: 99.0% chance Texas A&M wins

For more Auburn news and analysis, visit Auburn Wire.

Texas A&M vs. Texas

Date: Nov. 30

Location: College Station, Kyle Field

ESPN Matchup Predictor: 22.8% chance to win

Texas A&M’s chance to defend its home turf and defeat rival Texas dropped nearly six points after losing to South Carolina and Moss’s injury. After the Longhorns’ blowout win over Florida, the Aggie’s probability to come out victorious dropped two more points. For more Texas news and analysis, visit Longhorns Wire.

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The Aggies need to explode offensively on the ground and through the air against a New Mexico State defense ranked 126th in the country while also showing that the tacking issues have been fixed.

Texas A&M at Auburn

Date: Nov. 23

Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium

ESPN Matchup Predictor: 62.3% chance Texas A&M wins

No matter how bad Auburn has been, this is an SEC road game with everything on the line if the Aggies can cruise past New Mexico State. Texas A&M’s run defense will be key against Tigers running back Jarquez Hunter.

For more Auburn news and analysis, visit Auburn Wire.

Texas A&M vs. Texas

Date: Nov. 30

Location: College Station, Kyle Field

ESPN Matchup Predictor: 22.8% chance to win

Texas A&M’s chance to defend its home turf and defeat rival Texas dropped nearly six points after losing to South Carolina and Moss’s injury. After the Longhorns’ blowout win over Florida, the Aggie’s probability to come out victorious dropped two more points. For more Texas news and analysis, visit Longhorns Wire.

Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes, and opinions. Follow Cameron on Twitter: @CameronOhnysty.

ESPN FPI reveals Colorado’s updated probability of making College Football Playoff

ESPN’s FPI revealed Colorado’s updated probability of making the College Football Playoff

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Colorado Buffaloes have a fair shot to make the College Football Playoff this season.

After Week 10, the latest FPI rankings give the Buffs the third-best chance (20%) of winning the Big 12 Conference, trailing only the BYU Cougars and the Iowa State Cyclones. Colorado also has a 17.3% chance of making the CFP, which would likely come down to earning the Big 12 Championship auto-bid.

The Buffaloes are ranked No. 24 in the FPI, surprisingly leading No. 28 BYU but trailing the No. 22 Kansas State Wildcats. ESPN’s mathematical ranking system also gives CU a 0.2% chance to win the national championship game.

Currently, the Buffs are tied for second place in the Big 12, though with little room for error as four games remain on their schedule. First up is the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who have the Big 12’s fifth-best conference title odds (4.4%), on Saturday.

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Predicting Texas A&M’s 3 remaining football games ahead of Week 11 per ESPN FPI

Here are the latest ESPN FPI predictions for Texas A&M’s three remaining regular season games

Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1) came in at No. 14 and the second team out in the first College Football Playoff projections, ahead of No. 15 LSU and right below No. 12 SMU, as the Aggies are in a great position to finish out the year strong and earn one of the final playoff spots.

After losing to South Carolina in Week 10, most in the national media jumped off the Aggie bandwagon, which began with A&M’s 38-23 win over LSU in one of the more memorable comebacks in program history, vaulting the Aggies to No. 10 in the AP Poll before dropping to No. 15 after falling to the Gamecocks.

Amid the second bye week of the season, head coach Mike Elko is now dealing with the season-ending injury to star running back Le’Veon Moss, meaning junior back Amari Daniels and senior EJ Smith will now become the primary running backs for the final three games.

According to ESPN FPI, here are the latest predictions for New Mexico State, Auburn (on the road), and the season finale vs. Texas.

Texas A&M vs. New Mexico State

Date: Nov. 16

Location: College Station, Kyle Field

ESPN Matchup Predictor: 99.0% chance Texas A&M wins

Nothing has changed here. However, how Elko uses the new and very thin running back rotation will be interesting, as the hope is that the passing game can produce some early scores to keep Amari Daniels and EJ Smith from having to endure unnecessary snaps.

Texas A&M at Auburn

Date: Nov. 23

Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium

ESPN Matchup Predictor: 61.8% chance Texas A&M wins

Texas A&M’s chances to defeat Auburn on the road in Week 14 slightly decreased after the news that RB Le’Veon Moss will miss the rest of the season, but Auburn isn’t South Carolina, so I’ll still give the Aggies the nod.

For more Auburn news and analysis, visit Auburn Wire.

Texas A&M vs. Texas

Date: Nov. 30

Location: College Station, Kyle Field

ESPN Matchup Predictor: 24.7% chance to win

Texas A&M’s chance to defend its home turf and defeat rival Texas dropped nearly six points after losing to South Carolina and Moss’s injury, which isn’t surprising. How the Aggies perform in the next two games will likely determine this matchup.

For more Texas news and analysis, visit Longhorns Wire.

Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes, and opinions. Follow Cameron on Twitter: @CameronOhnysty.

Where Georgia ranks in ESPN’s FPI after Florida win

ESPN’s FPI rankings have Georgia football ranked in the top-5 again

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) is out after Week 10. This week involved several high-profile upsets and escapes, making the rankings all the more interesting.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the FPI, nine of the top 25 teams are in the SEC, including six of the top twelve. The SEC is again looking like the best conference in college football

Georgia stayed put in the rankings after a 34-20 win over Florida where they played very inconsistently. Georgia fans were upset at how low they were placed after their 30-15 win over Texas (who is, by the way, still the No. 1 team on FPI), but this win didn’t prove them right. Georgia needed two fourth quarter touchdowns to finally pull away from Florida, who did not have their top two quarterbacks.

Interestingly enough, Alabama still ranks higher than Georgia. Alabama will get their mettle tested against LSU, another top 25 team in these rankings. There will be a lot riding on that matchup, with both teams threatened to fall out of the College Football Playoff picture with a third loss.

As mentioned, there were several matchups that impacted this list. Ohio State and Penn State battled it out in Happy Valley, with the Buckeyes putting an end to the Nittany Lions’ undefeated season in a 20-13 win. Iowa State and Clemson were both upset at home, putting their playoff dreams in serious doubt. Texas A&M got crushed by South Carolina’s rushing attack. Kansas State was also upset on the road against 3-5 Houston

Week 11 will feature some more exciting matchups. The biggest ones will be from the SEC, with Georgia heading to Oxford to play Ole Miss and the Alabama-LSU game.

ESPN’s FPI Top 25 after Week 10

© Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

  1. Texas (26 FPI)
  2. Ohio State (25.9 FPI)
  3. Alabama (25.3 FPI)
  4. Georgia (23.1 FPI)
  5. Notre Dame (22.5 FPI)
  6. Ole Miss (22 FPI)
  7. Oregon (21.7 FPI)
  8. Tennessee (20.5 FPI)
  9. Miami (19.5 FPI)
  10. Indiana (19.3 FPI)
  11. Penn State (19 FPI)
  12. LSU (16 FPI)
  13. Clemson (14.9 FPI)
  14. Louisville (14.8 FPI)
  15. Texas A&M (14.5 FPI)
  16. SMU (14.1 FPI)
  17. USC (13.7 FPI)
  18. South Carolina (13.3 FPI)
  19. Boise State (13.1 FPI)
  20. Iowa (12.3 FPI)
  21. Iowa State (11.8 FPI)
  22. Kansas State (11.5 FPI)
  23. Colorado (10.7 FPI)
  24. Tulane (10.7 FPI)
  25. Florida (10.5 FPI)

Projecting the rest of the Duke football season using ESPN FPI

Breaking down the latest record projection for Duke football using the Football Power Index produced by ESPN.

Even with three losses in their past four games, the Duke Blue Devils already did the hard part of reaching six wins for the 2024 college football season.

Now, with three games left ahead on the schedule, the only question for first-year head coach [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] and his team is how many wins they can stack before the end of the regular season.

While the ESPN Football Power Index remains pretty pessimistic on the Blue Devils as a whole, keeping them outside of the top 60 teams in the country and the top 10 of the ACC despite their 6-3 record, Duke is still projected to finish with 7.6 wins. In fact, ESPN Analytics thinks there’s more than a 14% chance that Diaz wins his last three games for a 9-3 record in his debut season.

Here’s a breakdown of the final three games on the schedule and Duke’s chances to emerge with a win in the eyes of ESPN FPI.

NC State Wolfpack (Week 11)

Estimated Win Percentage: 54.4%

The Wolfpack have won each of their past two games to pull themselves to 5-4, and true freshman quarterback CJ Bailey has played a major role in the late-season reemergence. The first-year passer has thrown for 1,141 yards and nine touchdowns in his past four games, including a three-touchdown performance during last week’s 59-28 win over Stanford.

However, this two-game win streak has come against California and Stanford, two teams with a combined 1-9 conference record, and the Golden Bears came within a missed 28-yard field goal of winning anyway. Duke should be favored, even if the oddsmakers disagree.

Record: 7-3 (3-3)

Virginia Tech Hokies (Week 13)

Estimated Win Percentage: 38.7%

The Hokies fell to 5-4 on Saturday thanks to an overtime loss to Syracuse, but quarterback Kyron Drones and star running back Bhayshul Tuten both didn’t touch the ball during the defeat. Considering that the duo is responsible for 1,274 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground, even ignoring Drones’ passing production, and the Hokies still took a 6-2 Syracuse team to extra time on the road paints a good picture of why this Virginia Tech team is so scary.

Record: 7-4 (3-4)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Week 14)

Estimated Win Percentage: 66.3%

In a similar situation to the Wolfpack, Wake Forest beat Connecticut and Stanford to pull itself back to 4-4 for the season so far. However, the Demon Deacons beat the Cardinal by three points thanks to a late interception on the final drive. During Stanford’s six-game losing streak, the other five teams won by an average of 30.6 points. Wake Forest would need another conference win or two before this game to close this gap.

Record: 8-4 (4-4)