Tag: ESPN FPI

Projecting the rest of the Duke football season using ESPN FPI

Breaking down the latest record projection for Duke football using the Football Power Index produced by ESPN.

Even with three losses in their past four games, the Duke Blue Devils already did the hard part of reaching six wins for the 2024 college football season.

Now, with three games left ahead on the schedule, the only question for first-year head coach [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] and his team is how many wins they can stack before the end of the regular season.

While the ESPN Football Power Index remains pretty pessimistic on the Blue Devils as a whole, keeping them outside of the top 60 teams in the country and the top 10 of the ACC despite their 6-3 record, Duke is still projected to finish with 7.6 wins. In fact, ESPN Analytics thinks there’s more than a 14% chance that Diaz wins his last three games for a 9-3 record in his debut season.

Here’s a breakdown of the final three games on the schedule and Duke’s chances to emerge with a win in the eyes of ESPN FPI.

NC State Wolfpack (Week 11)

Estimated Win Percentage: 54.4%

The Wolfpack have won each of their past two games to pull themselves to 5-4, and true freshman quarterback CJ Bailey has played a major role in the late-season reemergence. The first-year passer has thrown for 1,141 yards and nine touchdowns in his past four games, including a three-touchdown performance during last week’s 59-28 win over Stanford.

However, this two-game win streak has come against California and Stanford, two teams with a combined 1-9 conference record, and the Golden Bears came within a missed 28-yard field goal of winning anyway. Duke should be favored, even if the oddsmakers disagree.

Record: 7-3 (3-3)

Virginia Tech Hokies (Week 13)

Estimated Win Percentage: 38.7%

The Hokies fell to 5-4 on Saturday thanks to an overtime loss to Syracuse, but quarterback Kyron Drones and star running back Bhayshul Tuten both didn’t touch the ball during the defeat. Considering that the duo is responsible for 1,274 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground, even ignoring Drones’ passing production, and the Hokies still took a 6-2 Syracuse team to extra time on the road paints a good picture of why this Virginia Tech team is so scary.

Record: 7-4 (3-4)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Week 14)

Estimated Win Percentage: 66.3%

In a similar situation to the Wolfpack, Wake Forest beat Connecticut and Stanford to pull itself back to 4-4 for the season so far. However, the Demon Deacons beat the Cardinal by three points thanks to a late interception on the final drive. During Stanford’s six-game losing streak, the other five teams won by an average of 30.6 points. Wake Forest would need another conference win or two before this game to close this gap.

Record: 8-4 (4-4)

Wisconsin continues to dive in ESPN FPI after blowout loss to Iowa

Wisconsin continues to dive in ESPN FPI after blowout loss to Iowa

Wisconsin continued its steep slide in ESPN FPI after a 42-10 loss to Iowa on Saturday.

The Badgers dropped six spots from No. 31 to No. 37 with the loss — down 12 slots from the team’s No. 25 ranking entering the Penn State matchup.

Related: Major takeaways from Wisconsin Badgers’ worst loss to Iowa since 1968

The loss continues to dim Wisconsin’s rest-of-season outlook. FPI now projects the team’s final record at 6.3 — 5.7, with a 82% chance of reaching bowl eligibility.

The Badgers move forward with matchups against Oregon (No. 7 in FPI), Nebraska (No. 55) and Minnesota (No. 31). Oregon and Minnesota are on the rise after continued strong play, while Nebraska has plummeted after three consecutive losses.

It goes without saying that Luke Fickell’s team needs to improve upon its recent form to reach the six-win threshold required for postseason eligibility — let alone to have a chance at defeating top-ranked Oregon.

The Badgers are idle in Week 11 before hosting the Ducks on Nov. 16. The bye week could be much-needed for a team and program currently on the ropes.

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Duke football holds steady in ESPN Football Power Index rankings after Week 10

The Duke Blue Devils stayed in almost the exact same place in the ESPN Football Power Index rankings after Week 10.

The Duke Blue Devils had the undefeated Miami Hurricanes on the ropes through two-and-a-half quarters on Saturday afternoon, but head coach Manny Diaz and his team couldn’t slam the door on the ACC favorites in a 53-31 loss.

As a result, despite Miami looking like a firm College Football Playoff contender, Duke dropped one spot to 61st in the ESPN Football Power Index rankings on Sunday.

The low ranking seems a little unfair given that Duke’s last two games included an overtime loss to the 8-1 SMU Mustangs, the No. 16 team in the rankings, and an 11-point lead over the Hurricanes.

“We showed that we can play toe to toe with anybody in the country,” Diaz said after the game.

Despite the low placement among Power Four programs, ESPN still likes the Blue Devils’ chances to reach eight wins. With a 6-3 record and upcoming games against NC State, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest, the popular analytical formula gives Duke a projected win total of 7.6.

The Hurricanes moved up one spot to ninth in the rankings, still the top ACC program, but the Louisville Cardinals vaulted themselves up to 14th after their road upset of the Clemson Tigers.

The Texas Longhorns, Ohio State Buckeyes, Alabama Crimson Tide, Georgia Bulldogs, and Notre Dame Fighting Irish remained the top five teams in order.

ESPN FPI rankings continue to rank Georgia low after Week 9

Where does Georgia football rank in ESPN’s puzzling FPI rankings after a Week 9 bye? How is Texas ranked No. 1?

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) is out after Week 9. This week involved several of the lower ranked teams competing with the top teams, with interesting results, but not many upsets.

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the FPI,  10 of the top 25 teams are in the SEC, including four of the top five. That shows how much competition Georgia has to deal with in the top conference in college football.

Georgia was on their bye week this week after the amazing 30-15 win over the Texas Longhorns. However, even with the loss, Texas is not only ahead of Georgia in the rankings, but they’re not at the top of the list after defeating the Vanderbilt Commodores 27-24. Georgia is ranked No. 4.

Alabama also appears ahead of Georgia after a 34-0 blowout win over Missouri. They’re penciled in as the No. 3 spot, despite having a worse record than Georgia, although they did win 41-34 against the Bulldogs earlier in the year.

The most even matchup on paper this week came from the LSU Tigers and the Texas A&M Aggies, two teams with undefeated records against SEC competition. The Aggies beat the Tigers 38-23 thanks to five touchdowns on the ground. As a result, Texas A&M rises two spots in FPI while LSU drops two spots.

Week 10 features some more intriguing games. Big Ten titans Ohio State and Penn State matchup in a game with conference championship implications. Pittsburgh and SMU, two teams undefeated in the ACC, play each other next week as well. The Oregon Ducks, currently the No. 1 team on the US LBM Coaches Poll, will match up against the defending champion Michigan Wolerines.

ESPN’s FPI Top 25 after Week 9

© Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
  1. Texas (25.7 FPI)
  2. Ohio State (25.6 FPI)
  3. Alabama (25 FPI)
  4. Georgia (22.9 FPI)
  5. Notre Dame (22.5 FPI)
  6. Tennessee (21.5 FPI)
  7. Ole Miss (21.4 FPI)
  8. Oregon (21 FPI)
  9. Penn State (19.6 FPI)
  10. Miami (19.1 FPI)
  11. Indiana (17.2 FPI)
  12. Texas A&M (16.7 FPI)
  13. Clemson (16.5 FPI)
  14. LSU (16.3 FPI)
  15. USC (14.8 FPI)
  16. SMU (13.3 FPI)
  17. Louisville (13.3 FPI)
  18. Kansas State (13.2 FPI)
  19. Iowa State (12.5 FPI)
  20. Boise State (11.9 FPI)
  21. South Carolina (11.5 FPI)
  22. Colorado (11.0 FPI)
  23. Florida (10.9 FPI)
  24. Missouri (10.6 FPI)
  25. Arkansas (10.4 FPI)

Where do Alabama’s upcoming opponents rank among ESPN’s FPI?

What is Alabama’s FPI ranking after defeating Missouri, and how do the Crimson Tide’s remaining opponents rank?

Throughout the 2024 college football season, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has remained high on the Alabama Crimson Tide. That did not change after the Crimson Tide’s Week 9 victory over Missouri either, as Alabama did not move from their FPI ranking of No. 3 nationally in Sunday’s update.

According to ESPN’s FPI, Alabama now has a 45.2% chance to win out over the remainder of the regular season, as well as a 6.2% chance to win the SEC. The Crimson Tide also have a 53.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 13.9% chance to make the national championship game, and an 8.2% chance to win the title.

Ranking at No. 3, it’s clear that ESPN’s FPI is high on Alabama, as it has been nearly all season. However, where do Alabama’s upcoming opponents rank in the statistic?

Beginning with the LSU Tigers, Alabama’s long-time SEC foe is currently sitting at No. 14 nationally after dropping two spots due to their Week 9 defeat at Texas A&M. The Tigers are Alabama’s highest-ranked opponent remaining by far, sitting 15 spots above the next highest.

After LSU, Mercer is not included in ESPN’s FPI as they are a FCS team, which means that the Oklahoma Sooners are next on the schedule. The Sooners are currently ranked No. 29 nationally, as they did not change after their road loss at Ole Miss.

After the trip to Norman, Alabama will return home for “The Iron Bowl” against the rival Auburn Tigers. Auburn currently ranks directly behind Oklahoma in ESPN’s FPI at No. 30 overall, jumping two spots after their road win at Kentucky.

Likely the favorite in all of their remaining regular season matchups, can Alabama win out to make the College Football Playoff? Time will only tell.

North Carolina jumps back ahead of Duke football in the ESPN FPI rankings after Week 9

A dreaded in-state rival moved back ahead of Duke in the ESPN Football Power Index on Sunday despite a worse record and a head-to-head loss.

The ESPN Football Power Index remains a slightly fickle beast.

One week after the Blue Devils dropped a spot by beating the Florida State Seminoles, Duke actually moved up four spots to 60th in the site’s national rankings on Sunday after an overtime loss to the SMU Mustangs.

Yes, the movement makes sense when fans account for the respective opponents. Florida State lost to Miami by 22 points on Saturday to drop to 1-7 for the season while the Mustangs, now 7-1 for the year and undefeated in ACC play, control their own destiny within the conference. The comparison is just funny to point out.

One could actually argue that ESPN Analytics is being a little stingy by only moving Duke up four spots. The Mustangs stood tight at No. 16 despite giving the ball to the Blue Devils six different times and relying upon a blocked field goal on the final play of regulation.

Either way, Duke’s tiny boost moves the Blue Devils to 11th among ACC teams. In a small bit of injustice, the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are 4-4 for the season after notably blowing a 20-point in Durham, jumped 12 spots to 57th because of their blowout victory over the Virginia Cavaliers.

The Hurricanes (10th) and the Clemson Tigers (13th) remain in line for a showdown in the conference title game with potential College Football Playoff appearances in store. The Mustangs and Louisville Cardinals (17th) are the only other ACC teams within the top 25 of the ESPN rankings.

Wisconsin falls in ESPN FPI after Week 9 loss to Penn State

Wisconsin falls in ESPN FPI after Week 9 loss to Penn State

Wisconsin fell in ESPN FPI after its 28-13 loss to Penn State on Saturday.

The Badgers dropped six spots from No. 25 to No. 31 in the metric, due to their rating falling to 9.2. The dip halts the team’s rapid ascension over its previous three-game winning streak. It also dims its rest-of-season outlook with challenging games upcoming.

Related: Updated game-by-game predictions for Wisconsin football after loss to Penn State

Wisconsin moves forward with games against Iowa (No. 26 in FPI), Oregon (No. 8), Nebraska (No. 46) and Minnesota (No. 35). The Badgers had created separation from that trio of rivals — Oregon aside. That separation is mostly gone after Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota all delivered strong performances in Week 9.

FPI’s rest-of-season forecast for Wisconsin specifically includes a projected final record of 6-9 — 5.1, a 92.1% chance to reach bowl eligibility and a 0.1% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Other notable FPI movements from around the Big Ten include Ohio State dropping from No. 1 to No. 2, Minnesota jumping 10 spots to No. 35, Nebraska jumping 12 spots to No. 46, Michigan falling to No. 39 despite a victory and Maryland plummeting to No. 59 with its blowout loss.

The Badgers are back in action next Saturday night for a rivalry showdown against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

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ESPN FPI projects the winner of Auburn vs. Kentucky

How does ESPN analytics project Saturday’s game between Auburn and Kentucky to play out?

Four consecutive losses are sitting on the back of the Auburn Tigers and head coach [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag] as they prepare for their final game in October. While things may be looking up in some aspects of the game, the Tigers keep finding ways to lose when they can no longer afford it.

That luck must turn around on Saturday as Auburn takes on the Kentucky Wildcats, a game that looks to be fairly even according to the metrics.

According to the ESPN Football Power Index and matchup predictor, the Tigers are not currently favored to win, having a 48.7% chance to beat the Wildcats on the road. That is their highest favorability in a while, however, trying to use it to their advantage.

The numbers have stayed the same for the most part. BetMGM shows Kentucky as a 2.5-point favorite, not having changed since the line opened. The point total has increased, though, rising from 42.5 to 43.5, keeping the narrative that neither of these offenses will score much.

The Wildcats’ offense is currently ranked No. 15 in the SEC with just an average of 319.9 yards per game, while Auburn is sitting over a full 100 yards ahead at 421.9 (No. 9). It also sits dead last in passing offense and points scored not being able to move the ball down the field on many occasions.

Kentucky’s defense, however, has kept it in many games and is strong, similar to Missouri. The Wildcats rank in the top five in the conference in total defense, passing defense, and rushing defense, containing opponents and limiting yard production consistently throughout this year.

The Tigers will meet Kentucky in their final road game of this month-long stretch, kicking off at 6:45 p.m. CST at Kroger Field on Saturday. The game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow Tyler on Twitter @traley34

ESPN’s FPI disrespects Georgia after win over Texas

Georgia stays below Texas in ESPN’s illogical FPI after Week 8.

ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) is out after Week 8’s action. There was massive shakeup this week with the dethroning of the previous top team (Texas).

According to ESPN, FPI is defined as “a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward.” In the FPI,  10 of the top 25 teams are in the SEC, including four of the top five. That shows how much competition Georgia has to deal with in the best conference in college football.

Speaking of Georgia, it played the former top team, the Texas Longhorns, on Saturday and won 30-15. However, there’s no movement by Georgia in the FPI. It stays fourth. It is interesting to note that, according to ESPN, UGA has the highest strength of record. The Bulldogs have several more difficult matchups, including against Tennessee and Ole Miss.

The loss to Georgia did have implications for Texas. Thanks to being blown out, it falls to No. 2. Strangely, Ohio State takes its spot despite being on bye and already having lost to Oregon. Ohio State plays Nebraska next week before going up against fellow Big Ten contender Penn State on Nov. 2.

There were other matchups that shook up the FPI. Alabama headed to Rocky Top to play Tennessee, but it was no match for the Volunteers. Tennessee stopped it late to win 24-17. Miami continued to look suspect against Louisville, but it continued its undefeated season. It won an offensive battle, 52-45. Arkansas was looking for another home upset against the LSU Tigers, but it definitely didn’t work out. The Razorbacks were blown out by the Tigers, 34-10.

Week 9 features more matchups that can affect the FPI. Alabama will need to get out of their funk against Missouri. Notre Dame heads to MetLife Stadium to play Navy in a ranked matchup. Most importantly, LSU heads to Texas A&M for a classic SEC showdown.

ESPN’s FPI Top 25 after Week 8

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  1. Ohio State (27.5 FPI)
  2. Texas (27.2 FPI)
  3. Alabama (23.2 FPI)
  4. Georgia (22.9 FPI)
  5. Ole Miss (22.1 FPI)
  6. Tennessee (21 FPI)
  7. Notre Dame (21 FPI)
  8. Oregon (20.5 FPI)
  9. Penn State (18.6 FPI)
  10. Miami (18.3 FPI)
  11. Indiana (17.4 FPI)
  12. LSU (16.9 FPI)
  13. Clemson (16.9 FPI)
  14. Texas A&M (15.7 FPI)
  15. USC (14.4 FPI)
  16. SMU (14.4 FPI)
  17. Louisville (13.8 FPI)
  18. Kansas State (13.8 FPI)
  19. Iowa State (12.3 FPI)
  20. Missouri (12.2 FPI)
  21. Boise State (11.8 FPI)
  22. Florida (11.3 FPI)
  23. South Carolina (11.1 FPI)
  24. Colorado (10.0 FPI)
  25. Wisconsin (9.7 FPI)

Duke football drops in the ESPN FPI rankings despite Florida State victory

Duke won on Friday night, defeating Florida State for the first time ever, but ESPN still dropped the Blue Devils in the FPI rankings.

The Duke Blue Devils picked up their sixth win of the season on Friday night, defeating the Florida State Seminoles for the first time in 23 meetings, but the ESPN Football Power Index remains pessimistic about the team in Durham.

ESPN Analytics updated their FPI rankings on Sunday, and Duke actually dropped one spot to 64th in the country.

Of the 25 FBS teams with at least six victories so far this season, only two (Navy and Louisiana) sit lower than the Blue Devils.

The Seminoles, now 1-6 for the season, also dropped one spot, but FSU only fell to 68th. In fact, the 1-6 Mississippi State Bulldogs rank four spots higher than Duke, making them one of 10 teams with a losing record higher than 64th.

The undefeated Miami Hurricanes, who moved up to fifth in the US LBM Coaches Poll after their 52-45 victory over the Louisville Cardinals remained 10th in the national FPI rankings. With the Clemson Tigers up to 13th after a sixth straight win, the top of the ACC is narrowing fast.