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Where Wisconsin basketball stands in KenPom and ESPN BPI after win over UT Rio Grande

This story was updated to add new information.

Wisconsin basketball improved to 5-0 on the 2024-25 season with an 87-84 win over UT Rio Grande on Monday.

The Badgers struggled defensively for much of the contest, allowing the Vaqueros to shoot 49% from the floor and nearly 40% from 3. The team was somewhat on the ropes midway through the second half before John Blackwell and John Tonje led a scoring surge that tipped the scales, eventually leading to the three-point win.

One big stat that continues to matter: Wisconsin shot 84.4% (27-of-32) from the free-throw line in the victory. The team’s final 11 points came from the charity stripe. The Badgers are No. 2 in the nation in team free throw percentage at 88.6%; the stat has been a driving force behind the team’s 5-0 start.

That undefeated start led to national recognition, even before the win over UT Rio Grande. Wisconsin entered the AP Poll at No. 19 and USA TODAY Sports men’s basketball coaches poll at No. 25 on Monday.

While the Badgers’ resume is building with each passing performance, their win on Monday didn’t impress some rating metrics. Wisconsin dropped 11 spots in KenPom from No. 29 to No. 40 after the win. Greg Gard’s team possesses the 18th-ranked offense and 83rd-ranked defense in the metric.

Allowing 84 points to a UT Rio Grande team that is No. 199 in KenPom assuredly led to the ratings downgrade, specifically defensively.

The Badgers also dropped from No. 22 in ESPN BPI to No. 30, reflecting the same general trend. BPI has the team’s projected final record at 19.6-10.4 and gives it an 8.2% chance to win the Big Ten.

Minus the needed defensive improvements, it’s hard to not be impressed by Wisconsin’s start to the season. This early season stage figured to see significant growing pains with new faces in the rotation. Instead, the Badgers are flashing top form and entering the conversation atop the Big Ten.

Wisconsin is back on the court on Friday against UCF at the Greenbrier Tip-Off.

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Where Wisconsin basketball stands in KenPom and ESPN BPI after win over Arizona

Wisconsin basketball is on the rise after its 103-88 win over No. 9 Arizona on Friday.

The Badgers are 4-0 after the statement victory. The team, which had tempered expectations entering the year, appears to again be one of the Big Ten’s best.

Those season expectations should rise as the team flashes top form during nonconference play. It will be tested once the Big Ten schedule begins, especially with the inclusion of the conference’s new members.

Before that point, it’s worth documenting the team’s ascension in rating metrics and national rankings. KenPom and ESPN BPI are taking note of the Badgers’ stellar start to the season:

KenPom: No. 30 overall (up 10 spots) — No. 17 offense, No. 57 defense
ESPN BPI: No. 23 overall (up six spots) — 14.2 rating, 20.6 – 9.4 projected record, 15.4% chance to win Big Ten Conference

Wisconsin is sure to enter the AP Poll Top 25 when it is updated to start the week. It should hold ranking with a home game against UT-Rio Grande on Monday before a weekend trip to the Greenbrier Tip-Off, which includes Pittsburgh, Central Florida and LSU.

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Wisconsin basketball rockets up both KenPom and ESPN BPI after win over Appalachian State

Wisconsin basketball improved to 3-0 on the 2024-25 season with a blowout win over Appalachian State on Sunday.

The win was powered by transfer wing John Tonje, a common sentence in the season’s early stages. He finished with 17 points on 8-of-14 shooting, plus seven rebounds, five assists and two steals. Senior center Steven Crowl also had his best outing of the young season, adding 17 points on 7-of-12 shooting.

Wisconsin is off to a strong start. Though the opponents are far from the class of the sport, the Badgers are taking clear steps forward with every contest. That improvement, mixed with decisive winning, should be enough to create optimism surrounding the team’s rest-of-season outlook.

For more on that outlook, here is where Greg Gard’s group stands in KenPom and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index after the win over Appalachian State:

KenPom: No. 40 overall (up nine spots) — No. 37 offense, No. 55 defense
ESPN BPI: No. 29 overall (up 10 spots) — 13.1 rating, 18.8 – 11.2 projected record, 6.7% chance to win Big Ten Conference

Those trend lines are just from the decisive victory over Appalachian State. The movement has the team now ranked No. 5 in the Big Ten by BPI and No. 10 by KenPom.

The latter may be a bit more reserved on the Badgers’ quality after only three games. Regardless, it’s worthwhile noting that our updated Big Ten basketball power rankings aren’t the only measure that is upgrading Wisconsin after the first week of the season.

The Badgers are back on the Kohl Center court for a premier matchup against No. 10 Arizona on Friday. A win would only continue the team’s current upward trajectory.

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Where Wisconsin basketball stands in KenPom and ESPN BPI after win over Montana State

Wisconsin basketball place in KenPom and ESPN BPI after win over Montana State

Wisconsin basketball improved to 2-0 on the young season with a victory over Montana State on Thursday.

The win was highlighted by the efficiency of Greg Gard’s team, as it shot 45% from the field, 50% from three-point range and 95% from the free-throw line. Those shooting rates helped the team avoid the same slow start it experienced in its opening victory over Holy Cross.

Montana State entered Thursday ranked No. 175 in ESPN BPI and No. 194 in KenPom. While the team is far from the quality of Wisconsin’s upcoming Big Ten opponents, it does boast three consecutive Big Sky tournament titles and NCAA Tournament appearances. The Bobcats have become the class of the conference and a dangerous mid-major foe.

Despite that, Wisconsin’s decisive victory did not do much to improve its place in either ESPN’s Basketball Power Index or KenPom. The Badgers sit at No. 39 nationally in BPI and No. 49 in KenPom after the 2-0 start. Neither of those rankings changed after the latest victory.

BPI specifically ranks the Badgers as the No. 8 team in the Big Ten while KenPom has the group down at No. 12 in the conference.

It is still extremely early in the college basketball season — more than a month remains before the real start of the conference schedule. These ranking updates are a valuable look at were the Badgers project long-term. As is always the case, continued winning in the non-conference schedule will only help that standing.

The Badgers are next on the court on Sunday, Nov. 10 at noon ET, 11 a.m. CT against the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Wisconsin will look for another big step forward en route to a 3-0 start.

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Wisconsin basketball falls in ESPN BPI after opening win over Holy Cross

Wisconsin basketball began its 2024-25 season with an 85-61 victory over Holy Cross on Monday.

Despite the final 24-point margin, the win was far from a wire-to-wire dominant showing. The Badgers trailed 13-3 in the first minutes, 23-7 halfway through the first half and 36-35 at halftime. The team eventually found its form, but could not coast to an easy victory against ESPN BPI’s No. 331 (of 364) team in the sport.

Those early-game struggles and lack of overall dominance saw the Badgers dip in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index despite the win. The team dropped from its preseason slot of No. 28 down to No. 39, also down to the No. 9-ranked team in the Big Ten.

ESPN BPI now projects the Badgers’ final record at 18.2 — 11.8 (10.4 — 9.6 in Big Ten play), and gives them a 5.5% chance to win the conference.

The good news: early-season rankings updates don’t define a team’s rest-of-season fate. The 2024-25 Badgers may face a predictable slow start with several new faces in the lineup. But the team projects to be one that improves as the season continues, especially as the transfer additions gel in the rotation and top youngsters including Daniel Freitag continue to develop.

Wisconsin’s second-half performance against Holy Cross showed the start of that development, as transfer wing John Tonje and sophomore forward Nolan Winter took over the matchup.

The Badgers are back on the Kohl Center court on Thursday against Montana State (No. 173 in BPI). They then continue with a home matchup with Appalachian State (No. 194) before a high-profile showdown with top-ranked Arizona (No. 5).

Badgers fans should watch for progress from the team through each of these matchups. Steady development from Greg Gard’s group will have it in strong position once Big Ten play heats up in January.

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Auburn basketball has a 95% chance to beat Georgia on Saturday

ESPN analytics expects Auburn to earn a huge win over rival Georgia to close out the regular season.

The final weekend of the regular season is here, and ESPN predicts Auburn will close out conference play with a big win.

Ahead of Saturday’s game against Georgia, ESPN’s matchup predictor is forecasting Auburn to beat the Bulldogs convincingly by giving them a 94.9% chance of victory. If this prediction comes true, it will be Auburn’s second win over Georgia this season.

Auburn bests Georgia in every major category, with the largest discrepancy being points scored per game. Auburn scores an average of 83.2 points per game while Georgia posts 74.9 points per game. Auburn’s [autotag]Johni Broome[/autotag] scores an average of 16.4 points per game, which tops Georgia’s leading scorer, Noah Thomasson, who scores 12.8 points per game.

Saturday’s game is one of the day’s middle-tier games in matchup quality. The game between Auburn and Georgia is the No. 23 of the day according to ESPN with a matchup quality score of 74.9. In addition to giving Auburn a high-percentage chance to win, ESPN predicts the Tigers to beat Georgia by 19.7 points.

Auburn squares off with Georgia on Saturday at 5:30 p.m. CT on SEC Network.

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Hogs given 53% chance to beat LSU in Wednesday’s Bud Walton finale

A little…surprising? LSU won the first meeting by 21 points.

Unpredictable.

Even with everything that has gone wrong with the Arkansas basketball team this season, that word is probably apt in describing the Razorbacks’ season.

After a week that saw Arkansas lose at home to 13th-place Vanderbilt, the Hogs turned around and played one of their best games of the season Saturday at Kentucky. They still lost, but considering the Wildcats’ status as a potential national champion, the only left to be desired, really, was the win.

It’s also a word – unpredictable – that describes what the computers think of the Hogs, too, which is why it’s hard to figure out why Arkansas was given a 53% chance to beat LSU on Wednesday in Razorbacks’ home finale at Bud Walton Arena.

Arkansas has only a 3-5 record in SEC play in front of its home fans this year. LSU has three more conference wins overall and has won four of its last five games in a better-than-expected season for the Bayou Bengals. LSU also beat Arkansas by 21 points when the teams met earlier this year in Baton Rouge.

To the computers, home still counts for something, apparently. To the fans? It will be interesting to see the crowd that shows for the most disappointing Arkansas season in more than a decade.

Where Alabama basketball ranks in ESPN’s BPI entering final week of regular season

After losing two out of its last three games, Alabama tumbles a bit in ESPN’s BPI

[autotag]Nate Oats[/autotag] and the Alabama men’s basketball are entering the final week of the regular season. With this past weekend’s home loss to Tennessee, an SEC regular season title is not likely to happen for the Tide.

Before tip-off on Tuesday night at Florida, let’s look at the latest update of ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.

According to ESPN, the BPI is a “measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team’s W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day’s rest, and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily.”

Here is a breakdown of where Alabama ranks in the BPI.

Blue Devils hop within the top eight in ESPN BPI

Duke climbed two spots to eighth in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, now four spots above rival North Carolina.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index certainly seemed impressed with Duke’s 25-point win over Virginia on Saturday evening.

The Blue Devils climbed two spots up to eighth in ESPN’s BPI, jumping above Iowa State and Creighton.

Only Houston, Purdue, Arizona, Tennessee, Connecticut, Auburn, and Alabama are higher than the Blue Devils in the site’s overall rankings.

The two-spot bump moved Duke farther above North Carolina, who slipped all the way down to 12th.

The Blue Devils have built their reputation around their offense this season, averaging 80.3 points per game so far this season. BPI has been impressed with the team’s scoring efforts, as Duke is eighth in the nation in ESPN’s Offensive Power Index.

Head coach Jon Scheyer’s squad has become more well-rounded as the year has progressed, too, as Duke is now just outside the top 20 in the Defensive Power Index.

NC State, whom Duke visits for a road game on Monday, is 72nd in ESPN BPI.

Auburn has an 86% chance to beat Mississippi State on Saturday

ESPN’s BPI expects Auburn to blast the Bulldogs on Saturday at Neville Arena.

Final predictions are beginning to roll in for No. 11 Auburn’s game with Mississippi State on Saturday. According to ESPN’s version, the final score will not be close.

ESPN’s matchup predictor projects that the Tigers will prevail on Saturday by giving them an 86.0% chance to beat Mississippi State at Neville Arena.

Mississippi State won the first battle between these two programs on January 27 at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, 64-58. Both teams are expected to play great defense again in the rematch, but the Tigers have the edge at home, and they continue to score over 80 points per game. Auburn will have to find a way to win the rebound battle, however, as the Bulldogs pull down one more rebound per game than Auburn.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index ranks the game between Auburn and Mississippi State as the No. 16 game of the day with a matchup quality score of 81.4. The Tigers are forecasted to win the game by 12 points according to the BPI.

The Tigers and Bulldogs battle at 3 p.m. CT Saturday on ESPN 2 live from Neville Arena in Auburn. Click here to get a full preview of the game.