Jordan Espinosa and Mark De La Rosa lock horns in a bantamweight fight on the main card at UFC Fight Night 172 Saturday at the UFC’s Apex Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.
Espinosa (14-7) enters as a moderate favorite over De La Rosa (11-4) in the first fight on the main card.
Espinosa holds a 4 1/2-inch reach advantage, and will look to add to his already sizable significant strikes landed per minute advantage. He leads that department 4.25 to 3.28 over De La Rosa, and has an even larger advantage in significant strike-accuracy percentage at 55.97 to 36.25. Espinosa isn’t a one-trick pony, though, and can grapple with the best of them, too. His numbers on the canvas are slightly better than what MDLR brings to the table.
Espinosa is hungry to snap a two-bout losing streak, as he was submitted in the first round against both Matt Schnell (Aug. 3, 2019) and Alex Perez (Jan. 25, 2020). However, the danger isn’t quite as high against De La Rosa, although you have to figure the challenger will certainly try his best to get the favorite to the mat.
De La Rosa is on a slide of his own, dropping his past three fights. “The Bumblebee” was knocked out in Round 2 last time out against Raulian Paiva Feb. 15, 2020, following a pair of unanimous-decision setbacks to Kai Kara-France Aug. 31, 2019, and Alex Perez March 30, 2019. De La Rosa’s last win was Nov. 10, 2018, a split-decision victory over Joby Sanchez. Three of De La Rosa’s past four fights have ended up going the distance, while Espinosa has finished inside the distance in three of his past four.
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Jordan Espinosa vs. Mark De La Rosa betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday, June 11 at 5:45 a.m. ET.
ESPINOSA (-164) is the favorite, and you have to like him in this bout mainly because of his reach advantage and potential to finish with one punch. He makes his punches count, and De La Rosa doesn’t have the kind of ground game which would be a problem for the favorite. Based upon Espinosa’s significant strikes advantage and his work on the mat, taking NO (+170): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong value.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Fili (-164) returns a profit of just 6.10, while a winning $10 bet on De La Rosa (+135) fetches a profit of $13.50. A $10 play on NO (+170) for “Will the fight go the distance?” returns a profit of $17.
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