Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 195 odds and lines between Jim Miller vs. Erick Gonzalez, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.
In a lightweight bout on the main card, Jim Miller meets Erick Gonzalez Saturday at UFC Fight Night 195 – also known as UFC Vegas 40 and UFC on ESPN+ 53 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 195 Miller vs. Gonzalez odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 4:30 p.m. ET and the main card at 7 p.m. ET.
The 38-year-old Miller has dropped back-to-back fights via unanimous decision, including last time out April 10 against Joe Solecki. He has won just four of his last 12 fights, with each of the victories coming by way of submission.
Gonzalez, nine years younger than the veteran Miller, is making his UFC debut. “The Ghost Pepper” has finished inside the distance in 11 of his 19 professional fights. He is a perfect 8-0 via TKO/KO, but just 1-2 by way of submission, so he’ll want to avoid the canvas against the wily veteran.
UFC Fight Night 195 Miller vs. Gonzalez: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Miller -270 (bet $270 to win $100) | Gonzalez +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under -101)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -145 | No +105)
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UFC Fight Night 195 Miller vs. Gonzalez: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Miller (32-16-0) | Gonzalez (14-5-0)
Miller (-270) is a little too expensive, costing more than two and a half times your potential return. Instead, get a little more specific instead.
Miller isn’t about the knockout, so you can avoid that – his last KO/TKO win came in 2016 at UFC 200. He also isn’t about the decision as the last time he won on points by the judges was also in 2016 at UFC 205. If you like the veteran, you have to play MILLER BY SUBMISSION (+210) on Method of Victory for a chance to more than double up.
NO (+105): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a good play since I expect a finish from the veteran.
In addition, playing a two-round block to win is a good idea. MILLER TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+570) and MILLER TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+1000) will cause you to lose one end even if he wins in Rounds 2-3. However, you’ll still be quite a bit ahead.
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