Tag: Eric Gordon

Eric Gordon practices Friday, set to return Sunday for Rockets

After a 22-game absence due to knee surgery, Rockets guard Eric Gordon is set to return to game action on Sunday in New Orleans.

After a 22-game absence, Houston Rockets guard Eric Gordon is set to return to game action on Sunday night in New Orleans.

Head coach Mike D’Antoni announced the news at Friday’s practice in Houston, where Gordon was a full participant.

With starting point guard Russell Westbrook likely to miss Sunday’s game as part of his maintenance plan on back-to-backs, it’s an ideal spot for Gordon to return to help fill those minutes.

And after losing Wednesday at Golden State (8-24) as a significant favorite, the Rockets (21-10) would prefer not to let another game versus a lesser opponent such as the Pelicans (9-23) slip away.

Now 31 years old, Gordon has been out since Nov. 13 after undergoing surgery on his right knee, which likely contributed to Gordon’s much worse than expected start to the 2019-20 season.

In nine games in October and November, the 6-foot-3 guard shot 30.9% overall and 28.4% from three-point range. Both figures are well below the 41.4% and 36.4% percentages logged over Gordon’s first three seasons in Houston, and his points per game average dipped from 16.8 over his initial three years to 10.9 this season.

Now in his fourth season in Houston, Gordon has averaged 16.6 points (36.1% on three-pointers) in 31.2 minutes per game with the Rockets. He won the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year Award back in 2016-17, his first season with the team, before starting most games in 2018-19 at small forward. However, D’Antoni appears set this season on starting Danuel House Jr. there, which makes his teamyounger, taller, and more athletic.

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Gordon signed a multi-year contract extension in September, which keeps him under contract through at least the 2022-23 season. The timing of that deal makes him ineligible to be traded this season.

Gordon had 17 points on 6-of-11 shooting (54.5%) in a Houston victory at New Orleans on Nov. 11, including 4-of-7 (57.1%) from three-point range. That was his last game prior to the medical procedure.

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Moments of the decade: Top Houston Rockets transactions

With the 2010s coming to a close, we look back at the best moves from Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey over the past decade.

Though they haven’t won an NBA title, the decade of the 2010s will likely be remembered fondly in the history of Houston Rockets basketball.

Dating back to 2010, the Rockets have the fourth-most wins among the NBA’s 30 franchises. They’ve advanced to the Western Conference Finals twice in the past five years, which they hadn’t previously done since 1997.

They also added one of the top players in team history — and likely NBA history — in 2018 MVP and reigning scoring champion James Harden.

Led by renowned GM Daryl Morey, here’s a look back at some of the franchise’s most influential moves over the past decade.

(Editor’s note: There will be a separate list of the team’s top games of the decade, since it would be tough to compare any individual game to a transaction — with the latter often shaping the roster for years.)

Honorable Mention

The Russell Westbrook trade — For now, the July 2019 trade of Chris Paul and draft considerations to Oklahoma City for former league MVP Russell Westbrook leads the “honorable mention” category. That’s not to diminish his potential impact, however. Rather, it reflects the limited sample, with Westbrook having played just 28 games with the Rockets.

It’s been a largely successful start to the Harden-Westbrook partnership, with the Rockets at 21-10 and Westbrook averaging 24.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 7.1 assists per game. But this trade will ultimately be judged by what the duo does and leads the team to in future playoff runs.

It could eventually be remembered as the decade’s most meaningful move, if it leads the Rockets to their first NBA title since 1995. It could also be remembered as a disaster, if Houston struggles in the postseason and the draft picks given up to the Thunder end up being high ones due to a future rebuild. As the decade concludes, it’s far too soon to tell.

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Hiring Mike D’Antoni — Houston’s current head coach prefers the focus to be on his players. However, he deserves ample credit for his own role in their success. Since taking the team’s reins in the 2016-17 season, the Rockets have the highest winning percentage of any NBA team.

It’s easy to forget, but before D’Antoni was hired in the 2016 offseason, the Rockets were at a bit of a crossroads as a franchise. The 41-41 record of the 2015-16 season remains the only season of the Harden era that Houston did not finish with a winning record, and many around the league believed Morey should make a philosophical change to a more traditional approach. The hire was not well received by many at the time.

As it turned out, the D’Antoni hire doubled down on the team’s three-point-heavy and analytics-oriented approach and brought total alignment to the organization. Since then, nearly the entire NBA has dramatically shifted its shot charts, with the success of D’Antoni’s Rockets blazing a trail that others have since followed.

D’Antoni won the NBA’s 2016-17 Coach of the Year award as Houston improved from 41-41 to 55-27, and he now has the highest regular-season and postseason winning percentages in Rockets history.

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Rockets guard Eric Gordon could return Sunday in New Orleans

A new report suggests Rockets guard Eric Gordon could return Sunday in New Orleans, when Russell Westbrook sits out on a back-to-back.

The Houston Rockets could get reserve guard Eric Gordon back from injury as soon as this weekend, according to a new report.

Gordon, who has been out since Nov. 13 after undergoing surgery on his right knee, was initially given a six-week timetable for his recovery. This Wednesday, when the Rockets visit Golden State as part of the NBA’s Christmas Day schedule of nationally televised games, is exactly six weeks from the procedure date.

However, with the Rockets (21-9) having won four straight games and 10 of 13 overall, there wouldn’t seem to be much incentive to rush Gordon back ⁠— especially against a Warriors team that enters Wednesday at 7-24 and with the worst record in the Western Conference.

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Gordon is traveling with the Rockets on their current four-game West Coast road trip, and the team had previously left the door open to his return during it. But there’s no need to push the envelope at the moment, considering how they’re playing and the opponent.

That could change this weekend, however, when the Rockets have back-to-back games starting with Saturday night at home vs. Brooklyn and continuing Sunday night at New Orleans. With starting guard Russell Westbrook likely to miss the second game as part of his maintenance plan on back-to-backs, that’s when head coach Mike D’Antoni could really use Gordon’s services to help fill those minutes.

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Per Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle, it sounds as if that could be the plan. On Tuesday, he reported:

He won’t be back in time to play the Warriors on Wednesday in one of the league’s showcase games and the Rockets’ first appearance in the Warriors’ new Chase Center home.

Yet, there still could be something that would feel right about the timing of Gordon’s approaching return.

With the Rockets to follow their road trip with a back-to-back games, Gordon could play for the first time since his Nov. 13 surgery on Sunday in New Orleans. That’s where he played for the last time before his surgery, offering a chance to pick up literally where he left off in his best game of the season.

Gordon had 17 points on 6-of-11 shooting (54.5%) in a Houston victory at New Orleans on Nov. 11, including 4-of-7 (57.1%) from three-point range.

Feigen clarifies later in the story that the final return schedule has yet to be set for Gordon, who turns 31 years old Wednesday. Whenever he returns, D’Antoni has already said that Gordon will play off the bench with an initial minutes restriction.

Regardless of role, the top priority for the Rockets is making sure Gordon is healthy after his procedure, since the knee problem likely contributed to Gordon’s much worse than expected start to the 2019-20 season.

In nine games in October and November, the 6-foot-3 guard shot 30.9% overall and 28.4% from three-point range. Both figures are well below the 41.4% and 36.4% percentages logged over Gordon’s first three seasons in Houston, and his points per game average dipped from 16.8 over his initial three years to 10.9 this season.

Now in his fourth season with the Rockets, Gordon has averaged 16.6 points (36.1% on three-pointers) in 31.2 minutes per game. He won the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year Award back in 2016-17, his first season with the franchise, before starting most games in 2018-19 at small forward. However, D’Antoni appears set this season on starting Danuel House Jr. there, which makes Houston younger, taller, and more athletic.

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Gordon signed a multi-year contract extension in September, which keeps him under contract through at least the 2022-23 season. The timing of that deal makes him ineligible to be traded this season.

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Mike D’Antoni confirms that Eric Gordon will return to bench role

The Rockets will use former NBA Sixth Man of the Year Eric Gordon off the bench once he returns, Houston coach Mike D’Antoni said Wednesday.

Rockets guard Eric Gordon will come off the bench when he returns from injury later this month, head coach Mike D’Antoni confirmed at Wednesday’s practice in Houston.

Gordon started 53 of 68 regular-season games for the Rockets a season ago, and all 11 in the postseason. However, since the Rockets were set in the backcourt with James Harden and Chris Paul, the majority of those starts came at small forward ⁠— where the 6-foot-3 Gordon is undersized.

This year, with a backcourt of two former MVPs in Harden and Russell Westbrook, the same logic would seem to hold true. The Rockets began training camp and preseason with Gordon as the starting small forward and briefly placed him into that role during the regular season in early November, but they’ve since settled on a larger and more athletic starting lineup with 6-foot-6 Danuel House Jr. at that position.

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Now 30 years old, there is certainly precedent for Gordon succeeding as a reserve. In the 2016-17 season, Gordon’s first in Houston, he won the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award as a spark plug off D’Antoni’s bench.

Regardless of role, the top priority for the Rockets is making sure Gordon is healthy upon his expected return. Gordon underwent surgery on his right knee on Nov. 11, with the team announcing that he was expected to miss about six weeks. That would put him on schedule for a return in late December, which by all indications is still the plan.

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D’Antoni said earlier this week that Gordon would initially be on a minutes restriction upon his return, though he didn’t specify the potential limit.

The knee problem may have contributed to Gordon’s much worse than expected start to the 2019-20 season. In nine games, the 6-foot-3 guard shot 30.9% overall and 28.4% from three-point range. Both figures are well below the 41.4% and 36.4% percentages logged over Gordon’s first three seasons in Houston, and his points per game average dipped from 16.8 over his initial three years to 10.9 this season.

Now in his fourth season in Houston, Gordon has averaged 16.6 points (36.1% on three-pointers) in 31.2 minutes per game with the Rockets.

Gordon signed a multi-year contract extension in September, which keeps him under contract through at least the 2022-23 season. The timing of that deal makes him ineligible to be traded this season.

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Eric Gordon moving closer to Rockets return, per Mike D’Antoni

Houston Rockets guard Eric Gordon is “closer” to a return after knee surgery, per Mike D’Antoni, with a potential return around Christmas.

Injured Rockets guard Eric Gordon is closer to a return, Houston coach Mike D’Antoni said before Monday’s home game versus San Antonio.

The news confirms a Friday report by The Athletic‘s Kelly Iko, who said Gordon recently told him that he was on schedule with his recovery.

Gordon underwent surgery on his right knee on Nov. 11, with the team announcing at the time that the 6-foot-3 guard was expected to miss about six weeks. Exactly six weeks from Gordon’s surgery date is Dec. 25, when the Rockets have a nationally televised matchup at Golden State on Christmas Day. That day is also Gordon’s 31st birthday.

While it’s unclear if that exact game on Christmas is the target date for his return, D’Antoni certainly didn’t rule it out Monday. However, he cautioned that Gordon would initially be on a minutes restriction.

Gordon was seen putting up shots pregame when the Rockets visited Orlando last Friday, and he expressed optimism about his status that same day to the Houston Chronicle‘s Jonathan Feigen.

The knee problem may have contributed to Gordon’s much worse than expected start to the 2019-20 NBA season. In nine games, the 6-foot-3 guard shot 30.9% overall and 28.4% from three-point range. Both figures are well below the 41.4% and 36.4% percentages logged over Gordon’s first three seasons in Houston, and his points per game average dipped from 16.8 over his initial three years to 10.9 this season.

Now in his fourth season with the Rockets, Gordon has averaged 16.6 points (36.1% on three-pointers) in 31.2 minutes per game with the franchise. He was the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award winner in the 2016-17 season, his first with the Rockets, and is expected to again be a spark plug off D’Antoni’s bench upon his return later this month.

Gordon signed a multi-year contract extension in September, which keeps him under contract with Houston through at least the 2022-23 season. The timing of that deal makes him ineligible to be traded this season.

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Report: Eric Gordon still eyeing late December return to Rockets

After recent knee surgery, Rockets guard Eric Gordon told The Athletic’s Kelly Iko that he remains on course to return later this month.

Houston Rockets guard Eric Gordon remains on schedule to return to the team in late December, according to an update Friday from The Athletic‘s Kelly Iko.

Gordon underwent surgery on his right knee on Nov. 11, with the team announcing at the time that he was expected to miss about six weeks.

In Friday’s update, Iko writes:

Gordon and I had a brief chat earlier this month, and he indicated to me that his recovery is going well, that it was very necessary, and that he’s still on course for his originally targeted return, two weeks from now. If I were a betting man, I’d give a 60 percent chance he plays Christmas Day in San Francisco and a 90 percent chance he’s available Dec. 31, at home against Denver.

Christmas Day will also be Gordon’s 31st birthday.

The knee problem may have contributed to Gordon’s much worse than expected start to the 2019-20 NBA season. In nine games, the 6-foot-3 guard shot 30.9% overall and 28.4% from three-point range. Both figures are well below the 41.4% and 36.4% percentages logged over Gordon’s first three seasons in Houston, and his points per game average dipped from 16.8 over his initial three years to 10.9 this season.

“It will clean up some things,” head coach Mike D’Antoni said in November of Gordon’s procedure. “It’s been bothering him actually since the middle of last year. I think he’s actually relieved that he can clean it up, get it going, so he can come back as strong as ever.”

About a week later, Gordon largely echoed that assessment in comments to local media in Houston.

Regarding his knee, Gordon said:

It just got worse over time, and it was really affecting what I do. I couldn’t be as athletic as I wanted to be, and that was something I was really working on. That’s what I was worried about, more the rehab and doing things to keep me out there on the floor, instead of just worrying about playing. But I’ll get back to that here very soon.

Now in his fourth season with the Rockets, Gordon has averaged 16.6 points (36.1% on three-pointers) in 31.2 minutes per game with the franchise. He was the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award winner in the 2016-17 season, his first in Houston, and is expected to again be a spark plug off D’Antoni’s bench upon his return later this month.

Gordon signed a multi-year contract extension with the Rockets in early September, which keeps him under contract with the team through at least the 2022-23 season. The timing of that deal makes him ineligible to be traded this season.

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Ben McLemore continues to excel for Rockets in starting role

With a key contract date looming, swingman Ben McLemore made a strong case in Saturday’s win about his value to the Houston Rockets.

Ben McLemore went into this past week knowing it was a potentially critical one for his longer-term future with the Houston Rockets.

Based on his contract, Sunday, Dec. 1 is the date in which he begins earning more money than the partial guarantee ($500,000) on his contract. In other words, since he can now theoretically be replaced by a veteran free agent without an additional financial penalty to the team, he must prove worthy of his roster spot solely on basketball merit.

In Saturday’s blowout win over the Hawks, the 26-year-old made quite a convincing case. In 34 minutes as the starting small forward, McLemore set season-highs across the board with 24 points (64.3% shooting, 54.5% on three-pointers), 13 rebounds, and six makes from three-point range.

For the season, McLemore’s three-point shooting percentage improved from 29.1% before Saturday’s game to a more respectable 31.6% after it.

It could be randomness due to a small sample size, but one fascinating aspect of McLemore’s 2019-20 season to date is how much more effective he’s been as a starter. In five games filling in for Danuel House Jr., McLemore is averaging 17.4 points (47.5% shooting, 40.0% on three-pointers) and 5.4 rebounds in 31.6 minutes per game.

By contrast, the 6-foot-3 guard is averaging just 4.9 points and 1.4 rebounds in 17.0 minutes per game as a reserve, with shooting percentages of 27.4% overall and 25.0% from behind the free-point arc.

The University of Kansas product, who was drafted No. 7 overall in the 2013 NBA Draft, told Houston Chronicle beat writer Jonathan Feigen that he wasn’t putting much stock in his starter versus reserve splits.

Before Saturday’s game, McLemore said:

I’m not reading into it … at all. I just try to play my game, keep it simple, do everything I need to do at a high level to help my team win games. It’s just staying ready, staying the course. Any time my name is getting called, I do the best I can.

For the season as a whole, McLemore has seemingly found ways to help the Rockets — even when his shots aren’t falling. His defensive rating of 104.4 and overall net rating of 14.5 are both the team’s best among regular rotation players to have averaged over 10 minutes per game.

Head coach Mike D’Antoni said Saturday that House and starting center Clint Capela, who each missed the Hawks game with illnesses, were trending well for potential returns in Houston’s next game on Tuesday in San Antonio. If that happens, McLemore would return to a bench role.

It remains to be seen if McLemore’s shooting numbers will bounce back as a reserve. But even if for some odd reason they don’t, he may still have value to the team as a fill-in starter for House, who has already missed five games with an assortment of injuries and ailments.

Assistant coach Elston Turner told The Athletic‘s Kelly Iko last week that he believed House’s aggressive and physical style as a defender contributed to his propensity for injury. Turner told Iko:

House is just a young guy with energy. He’s still trying to make his name in this league. He’s really good at blowing up situations, which we try to encourage, like dribble handoffs and pin-downs. He’ll run through it and not even let them hand the ball off.

“He’s good at it; that’s why he stays hurt all the time,” Turner said, chuckling to himself.

Besides his current illness, House has suffered minor injuries to his back, shoulder, and ankle over the season’s first 19 games.

There’s probably a small-sample-size component to both House’s absences and McLemore’s subpar splits as a reserve. But even if for some reason there isn’t, then McLemore has still presented the Rockets with legitimate reasons to keep him around as an insurance policy at small forward. That’s especially significant with guard Eric Gordon still expected to miss several more weeks due to knee surgery.

Entering the week, the Rockets had lost three straight games — and McLemore’s 0-for-6 showing on three-pointers in the final game versus Dallas had many questioning the stability of his roster spot, given the looming Dec. 1 date in which his salary surpasses his partial guarantee.

But the Rockets (13-6) finished the week with back-to-back wins, and in House’s absence, McLemore was an huge part of the second victory with season-high numbers across the board. It came at just the right time for the team as a whole, and perhaps for McLemore individually, as well.

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Why the Rockets need Eric Gordon to unlock shots for James Harden

With James Harden limited to just 16 shot attempts in back-to-back Rockets losses, here’s how the eventual return of Eric Gordon could help.

Rockets GM Daryl Morey seems to be pointing at the eventual return of guard Eric Gordon as a critical development to help loosen opposing defenses for Houston superstar James Harden. There’s ample reason to believe in that relationship, too.

Morey, who is currently in Europe on a scouting trip, posted a nighttime image of an illuminated room with the caption: “Opposing coaches coming up with ways to stop [Harden] once [Gordon] comes back.”

Gordon recently had surgery on his right knee, and he’s expected to return in late December. The knee problem likely contributed to Gordon’s much worse than expected start to the 2019-20 season — with shooting figures of 30.9% overall and 28.4% on three-pointers. Both figures are well below the percentages of 41.4% and 36.4% from his first three seasons in Houston, and his average of 10.9 points per game is the lowest of any season in his 12-year career.

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The Rockets (11-5) have largely had a successful start to the new season, even with Gordon struggling or out injured. However, they’ve lost two straight games versus the Nuggets and Clippers this week in which the leading theme was an inability to get Harden enough shot attempts.

Through 16 games, Harden is currently scoring 38.3 points per game on remarkable efficiency, with a career-high 62.7% true shooting clip. It’s the best per-game total for any NBA player in the last 56 seasons.

Yet, in large part due to that dominance, opposing teams are coming up with new and almost unprecedented ways to combat Harden with numerous traps and double-teams to force the ball out of the his hands early and force any other Rockets player to beat them.

Nuggets coach Michael Malone compared it to defending Michael Jordan, viewed by many as the greatest player in basketball history. “Back in the day, they had the Jordan Rules,” Malone said Wednesday. “You have to have rules against James Harden. It’s the same caliber of player.”

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In Wednesday’s game against the Nuggets and Friday’s game against the Clippers, Harden was extremely efficient with combined averages of 32.0 points, 9.5 assists, and 7.5 rebounds per game on 53.1% overall shooting and 47.4% on three-pointers.

However, the raw scoring output was still more than six points below his season-long average, largely due to Harden only being able to get off 16 shots in each game. After the game, the former Most Valuable Player (MVP) said the level of defensive attention was almost unprecedented.

The primary issue appears to be that not enough of Harden’s perimeter teammates command respect from opposing defenders. For example, Russell Westbrook and Ben McLemore — with the latter starting due to absences by Gordon and Danuel House Jr. (sore shoulder) — are connecting on just 22.0% and 31.5% from three-point range, respectively. Reserve guard Austin Rivers is shooting just 30.3% on three-pointers, including a woeful 17.6% over his last seven games.

On Friday’s final possession in Los Angeles with the Rockets trailing by one point in the closing seconds, the Clippers effectively dared Westbrook to beat them by sending his defender to trap Harden. Predictably, Westbrook bricked his open three-pointer, and the Rockets went on to lose the game.

P.J. Tucker does command respect with a 45.6% clip on three-pointers, but he’s just one player. Moreover, his inability to create offense off the dribble makes it easier for defenders to scramble back and recover against him.

That’s where Gordon, if healthy, could be so vital. Not only did Gordon shoot 40% from three-point range last postseason with the Rockets, but he also scored nearly 18 points per game because of his ability to both shoot and create.

It should be noted that the Nuggets and Clippers are both top 10 defenses. Most opponents on the regular-season schedule — even if they try similar schemes — won’t have the collective length or personnel to pull off what those teams did over the past two games. The looming return of House (44.6% on three-pointers) should help, as well.

But the last two games are a good reminder of what might be waiting for the Rockets in the Western Conference playoffs next spring. If Houston’s formula for success continues to rely heavily on Harden producing at historic levels, opponents are going to send incredible amounts of resources his way. To combat that, non-Harden Rockets need to make opposing defenses pay for effectively surrendering a four-on-three in order to double Harden.

There is some reason to believe in organic growth. Giving many of McLemore’s minutes to House should help, and Westbrook should bounce back to some degree. While he’s never been a good three-point shooter, his career mark of 30.5% is significantly better than his current 22% rate. Last year, Westbrook shook off a similarly cold start to his season to connect on nearly 33% of his three-pointers over the year’s second half.

But in the long run, a healthy Gordon might be most important of all, given his unique combination of shooting and playmaking relative to the rest of the current roster.

The Rockets’ offense (No. 3 in net rating) is certainly good enough to win games in the regular season without Gordon. After all, Houston has still won eight of its last 10 overall, even considering the 0-2 road trip.

However, the way both the Nuggets and Clippers won by denying shot attempts to Harden was a reminder of how critical Gordon still is to the Rockets’ ultimate ambition of an NBA championship next June.

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Eric Gordon explains the timing that led to his knee surgery

In new comments after his recent knee surgery, Rockets guard Eric Gordon says he didn’t think he needed the procedure during the offseason.

In new comments after his recent knee surgery, Houston Rockets guard Eric Gordon says he didn’t think he needed the procedure during the past NBA offseason.

When head coach Mike D’Antoni disclosed last week that Gordon’s knee pain dated back to last season, many fans naturally wondered if the 30-year-old should have had the procedure during the summer — when the projected six-week recovery timetable would not have forced him to miss any games of the 2019-20 regular season.

However, in speaking with reporters this week at Toyota Center, Gordon said he did not view the prior pain as worthy of surgery.

I’ve been dealing with this since last season, I’m pretty sure coach told you about that. Along the way, it just got worse and worse. It’s something that needed to happen, and so it’s definitely a major relief. Now I can go out there and play free.

It just got worse over time, and it was really affecting what I do. I couldn’t be as athletic as I wanted to be, and that was something I was really working on. That’s what I was worried about, more the rehab and doing things to keep me out there on the floor, instead of just worrying about playing. But I’ll get back to that here very soon.

The knee problem likely contributed to Gordon’s much worse than expected start to the season — with shooting percentages of 30.9% overall and 28.4% from three-point range. Both figures are well below the 41.4% and 36.4% percentages logged by Gordon during his first three seasons in Houston, and his current average of 10.9 points per game is the lowest of any season in his 12-year career.

“I know it’s going to be a six-week process,” said Gordon, who signed a multi-year contract extension with the Rockets in September. “I’ve just got to follow it and get back out there as soon as I can.”

Even with Gordon missing time, the Rockets (11-3) entered Wednesday with the NBA’s longest active winning streak at eight games. As one might expect, Gordon is hoping to get back as quickly as possible to help his teammates continue their run of success.

I just like how we’re playing, I like our record. It’s good that we got off to a good start. By the time I come back, hopefully we can continue to keep thriving.

Six weeks from his Nov. 13 surgery date is Dec. 25, which is when the Rockets have a nationally televised game at Golden State as part of the NBA’s annual Christmas Day slate. If Gordon returns then, that would mean he misses 20 total games due to the procedure.

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Why James Harden could have a real chance to average 40 points

Rockets star James Harden is averaging 39.5 points through 13 games, and a closer look at the data suggests his scoring may get even better.

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Through 13 games of the 2019-20 season, Rockets star James Harden is averaging 39.5 points per game, including an astounding 43.0 points during Houston’s current seven-game winning streak.

Over the weekend, NBA legend and future Hall of Famer Dwyane Wade said he wants to see Harden average 40 for the season.

On paper, it sounds almost impossible. After all, the only player in NBA history to average 40+ points in a season was Wilt Chamberlain, and it came nearly 60 years ago in the 1961-62 and 1962-63 seasons. But upon looking at the numbers, Harden might have a real chance.

A year ago, Harden averaged 36.1 with the Rockets averaging 98.4 possessions per game — which was the NBA’s fourth-slowest pace. This year, after the offseason addition of Russell Westbrook, Houston is at the league’s third-highest pace at 106.00 possessions as of Monday — which represents a big increase in scoring opportunities.

Additionally, Harden’s current 39.5-point average comes on shooting percentages of 41.7% from the field and 33.2% from three-point range are the lowest of his eight seasons in Houston. If those revert closer to his career norms in Houston of 44.2% overall and 36.3% on three-pointers, that should lead to even more points.

In fact, we’ve already seen that dynamic start to play out. Harden’s subpar percentages largely reflect a shooting slump to begin the season, with Harden at 37.1% from the field and 21.5% on three-pointers through Houston’s first six games (3-3).

During the current seven-game winning streak, his percentages have jumped substantially to 44.9% overall and 41.4% on three-pointers.

In the latest episode of the Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective podcast, ESPN‘s Kevin Pelton and Kevin Arnovitz explained why a closer look at the numbers suggests that Harden could pull it off.

“He can,” said Pelton, when asked by Windhorst whether Harden could average 40 points. “I’m not sure I would bet on it. Now I would bet on him having the highest-scoring season since Chamberlain and beating out that Jordan season [37.1 points in 1986-87].”

“When you look at his stats, it’s not a lot of small sample size theater at all, really. The biggest difference from last season, and the reason for his scoring increase… he’s playing the same number of minutes per game, he’s scoring pretty much the identical number of points per 100 possessions, it’s up from 48.2 to 48.5.”

Pelton continued:

The difference is almost entirely that Houston has gone from one of the slowest-paced teams in the league to the fourth-fastest pace [now third]. That’s something that tends to stabilize at the team level pretty quickly. The stylistic markers of how you play tend to stabilize more quickly than the results, the outcome-based things. I think pace will come down over the course of the season, we do traditionally see that, but we’re probably going to see Harden shoot better on threes than he has this year, where he’s at 33% so far, which would be the lowest mark of his NBA career. So, I don’t think we’re going to see a big decline in his points per game.

Arnovitz then jumped in:

To follow Kevin’s point, what’s really interesting here is generally speaking, one of the features of small sample size theater in November is when Brian asks the question of, ‘Hey, can this guy keep it up?’ it’s because they’ve been overperforming, or gotten a little lucky, or been way outside from a positive outlier standpoint. But, that’s the thing. He’s not even shooting all that well! Imagine if he becomes a little more proficient per possession. … You know, Aron Baynes is not going to continue to shoot 50% from three. With Harden, he hasn’t even been that proficient. That’s what’s crazy about it.

Arnovitz did note that Eric Gordon‘s downtown in efficiency and current six-week absence due to knee surgery is giving Harden additional opportunities. In theory, that could reduce Harden’s usage rate slightly in the second half of the season, assuming Gordon returns healthy around Christmas, as planned.

But for now, as long as Harden stays healthy, there’s little in the data to suggest a probable regression in his scoring. And with the Rockets (10-3) having won seven consecutive games and the team’s defense faring extremely well with Harden on the court, there’s little reason for head coach Mike D’Antoni to consider tinkering with the formula.

After all, it’s not as if Harden’s exceptional offensive workload is limiting his proficiency on the defensive end. Moreover, the performance is strongly correlated with wins for his team, including three victories in four days to end last week — all against opponents with winning records (Clippers, Pacers, Timberwolves).

Harden will have his next opportunity to build on the historic numbers during a home matchup versus Portland (5-8) on Monday, when the Rockets will attempt to win their eighth straight game.

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