The Duke Blue Devils have to win against themselves in order to win against UNC.
Sir Edmund Hillary said it best: “It is not the mountain we conquer but ourselves.”
It feels like the perfect quote to summarise the Duke basketball experience this year and focus on what’s ahead of the team as they prepare to try and get revenge for an early February loss to their rivals, UNC. The Blue Devils have been fighting the team in the mirror all season. It’s time they conquer that.
If they can, the Blue Devils will head to Washington, D.C., for the ACC Tournament, with their share of the 2023-2024 ACC regular season title; if the Tar Heels win, they are the outright title winners. Losing that also likely eliminates Duke from having any shot at a 2-seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
For Duke, it’s simple: UNC is the best opponent (not named Arizona or Baylor) on their schedule. They beat Baylor in Madison Square Garden, which stands out as a great Quad 1 win, but the Blue Devils know they need more. Hubert Davis’ team is undoubtedly in the Final Four-capable tier of teams, so a win against North Carolina would be the perfect confirmation that this Duke team has grown and evolved and is playing its best basketball.
It’s easier said than done, as UNC will have everything to play for on top of the sheer fact that this is a rivalry, and it could be Armando Bacot and RJ Davis’ last game against Duke ever. They’ve ruined big nights in Cameron Indoor Stadium before.
Duke played a rough basketball game against UNC in the first round in Chapel Hill. They were not strong on the court, and their defensive plan wasn’t strong. Ultimately, the Heels just played better.
Duke shot 26.3% from three, compared to almost 38% from UNC. Harrison Ingram was the thorn in Duke’s side from the outside, going 5/9 from deep. Duke also had 11 turnovers, which led to 19 UNC points. Eight of those turnovers were live-ball, which makes it even harder to get back on defense against a transition offense-focused team like UNC.
Kyle Filipowski struggled with foul trouble, and when his team needed him to contain Armando Bacot without a double team, he couldn’t. Tyrese Proctor had one of his worst games, registering just two points and one assist on 1/6 shooting in 26 minutes.
So, what has to change this time around? Duke has to put together a complete performance as they have in games on the road at Miami, NC State, Virginia Tech, or as they did recently at home versus Virginia. This team has shown that it can play a full 40 minutes on both ends of the court, and when they can, they will blow teams away, as eight of their conference wins have been by 15 points or more.
Duke is a deeper team now. The bench has lengthened a much-needed development due to limitations with guys like Jaylen Blakes and Ryan Young. They are decent role players but certainly guys with deficiencies. The answers were the 6-foot-9 five-star freshman Sean Stewart and the 6-foot-8 four-star small forward TJ Power.
Power’s shooting ability is among the best on a team of great shooters this season, but the lack of opportunities hasn’t allowed him to showcase that. Stewart is hyper-athletic and an incredible shot disruptor combined with pure energy and hustle, allowing him to provide the energy on 50/50 plays Duke needs.
Each player has played at least 10 minutes in the last three games. Stewart had a season-high 26 minutes of game action at NC State, where he had his proverbial breakout game, scoring 12 points, five rebounds, three blocks, two steals, and two assists. He was a menace on defense, and four rebounds came on the offensive glass, giving Duke extra possessions.
They must be factors in this rematch, and the rest of the team needs to be more assertive with the ball. If Duke hadn’t been forced into so many live-ball turnovers, they could’ve shaved off at least six points they allowed. Tyrese Proctor must play better, especially considering Caleb Foster will still be out. He’s had some encouraging performances since being inserted back into the starting lineup with Foster out, and Monday night in Raleigh showcased that.
Kyle Filipowski needs to be a factor for the entire 40 minutes. Jon Scheyer must find a better way to defend Bacot while not allowing RJ Davis to explode. Do not respect Elliot Cadeau’s shot. Make him shoot more jumpers than layups, and respect Ingram as a solid spot-up shooter.
It won’t be easy, but Duke can beat UNC. Aside from the implications mentioned above about the ACC title, this win is about Duke playing well enough to beat an elite opponent as it pursues a sixth NCAA title in two weeks.
They missed the mark early against Arizona and in Chapel Hill. In both games, Duke was the loser, but there was a clear sense that Duke didn’t play well enough to beat that caliber of team. Can they conquer themselves and raise their level of play to conquer their goals? We’ll find out on Saturday.
