ESPN: Since 2019, Rockets lead NBA in outperforming draft slots

Since 2019, the Rockets have received “almost double the expected value of their draft picks,” per ESPN’s Kevin Pelton.

Led by the likes of Alperen Sengun (No. 16 overall pick in 2021), Tari Eason (No. 17 in 2022), and Cam Whitmore (No. 20 in 2023), the Houston Rockets have found a surprising amount of production in recent years from picks made in the second half of the first round.

Now, according to statistical models from ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, there’s an ability to quantify just how much.

Pelton writes:

Over the past five drafts (2019 to 2023), the three teams that have added the most value on a per-pick basis relative to what we would expect based on where they picked all have ties to the Houston Rockets’ front office. Along with Houston, that group includes the Philadelphia 76ers, who hired longtime Rockets executive Daryl Morey in 2020, and the Sacramento Kings, who hired Monte McNair from Houston in 2020 as their lead executive. Those teams rank just ahead of the Golden State Warriors and Utah Jazz.

Although Morey oversaw only one of those drafts, the Rockets themselves are far and away No. 1 by this measure, getting almost double the expected value of their picks. Houston picked the two players who most exceeded the expectations for their draft spot, Alperen Sengun at No. 16 in 2021, and Cam Whitmore at No. 20 last year.

It’s a strong endorsement for Houston’s current front office, led by general manager Rafael Stone and assistant general manager Eli Witus. Yet, it’s worth noting that Houston doesn’t currently have a pick in the middle-to-late portions of the 2024 first round, which is the area the Rockets have most frequently outperformed from.

So, for the Rockets to keep that streak going, the path will be a bit more challenging with only the No. 3 overall selection.

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Rockets extend front office contracts of Rafael Stone, Eli Witus

“We wanted to show them as well as the public we’re excited with the direction the Rockets were going,” owner Tilman Fertitta tells the Houston Chronicle.

The Rockets extended the contracts of general manager Rafael Stone and assistant general manager Eli Witus, longtime beat writer Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle reported Tuesday. Terms of the deal, both in terms of finances and years, were not disclosed.

The agreements were reached in January, Feigen reports.

“We wanted to show them as well as the public we’re excited with the direction the Rockets were going,” owner Tilman Fertitta told Feigen. “It became clear that the Rockets had executed our plan to draft and develop young potential cornerstones for the franchise, stabilized the team with veterans that translated to winning games and found our coach for the present and future.”

By any objective measures, 2023-24 was a successful season.

After averaging fewer than 20 wins per season over the previous three years, the Rockets (41-41) became the 10th NBA team in history — and the fifth in the last 30 years — to immediately follow a season of 60 or more losses with a non-losing season.

Stone played a key role. In the preceding offseason, Stone hired Ime Udoka as head coach; drafted promising rookies Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore; and signed Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday and Jock Landale as free agents.

Those newcomers were paired with four young and talented returnees: Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason. The combination had immediate benefits.

Thus, Stone and Witus were rewarded. Both were hired to their current roles in October 2020 after the exit of longtime general manager Rafael Stone, and it appears they will stay in place as the Rockets ditch the rebuilding years and move closer to contention.

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Report: Many around NBA view Rockets executive Eli Witus as future GM

Several NBA staffers picked Houston’s Eli Witus as their choice for the smartest front-office figure in the league, Yahoo’s @JakeLFischer reports. #Rockets

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Could veteran Houston Rockets executive Eli Witus — currently the executive vice president of basketball operations and assistant general manager —  become a general manager?

In a column about the NBA’s next wave of front-office executives, Jake Fischer of Yahoo! Sports cites sources from other teams around the league as being bullish on Witus’ future job prospects.

From the article:

Despite the Rockets’ bumpy rebuild, Houston assistant general manager Eli Witus also registered strong support among various league personnel to pilot his own program, with several league figures pinning Witus as their choice for the smartest front-office figure in the league.

Witus has served as Houston’s No. 2 basketball operations executive since October 2020, working hand in hand with general manager Rafael Stone. Prior to that, Stone was second in command to Daryl Morey (now in Philadelphia) with Witus slightly lower in the hierarchy.

At 51 years old, Stone doesn’t appear likely to step down from his post in the near future. Thus, if Witus wants to lead his own team, he likely needs to make a move similar to how Monte McNair (Sacramento) and Gersson Rosas (then Minnesota) left the Rockets during the Morey years for external promotions.

Then again, Witus, who does extremely few interviews, might prefer the relative anonymity that accompanies a secondary role.

Whatever the case, if Houston’s rebuild proves successful, it could be a decision for Witus to make in the coming years.

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Patrick Fertitta praises Rafael Stone, Eli Witus for Harden trade decision

Per ESPN, Patrick Fertitta credits Rafael Stone and Eli Witus for “making the hard and, at the time, very unpopular decision” to prioritize draft capital in the Harden trade.

Assuming the Rockets keep the pick, or if it is used it as part of a package to trade up, the No. 17 overall selection (via Brooklyn) in Thursday’s 2022 NBA draft will be Houston’s first potentially long-term player acquired from the controversial James Harden trade in January 2021.

Going forward, it certainly won’t be the last. And that choice by general manager Rafael Stone is looking less controversial by the day.

The Rockets own either Brooklyn’s first-round pick or a right to swap first-round picks with the Nets in each of the next five years, through 2027. With the Nets reeling from Harden’s midseason departure in February 2022 and uncertainty over Kyrie Irving’s next contract, the outlook for those assets has never been better, from a Houston perspective.

Granted, the Rockets did acquire some players in the Harden trade — namely Victor Oladipo (later traded for Kelly Olynyk and Avery Bradley), Dante Exum, and Rodions Kurucs. But none of those players remain with the Rockets today, and they were effectively included in the Harden trade as salary filler to satisfy the league’s matching rules.

The primary goal, when Houston decided it had to trade its disgruntled All-Star and former MVP, was the historic haul of draft assets. While many fans wanted the Rockets to go a different direction with more certainty — a package from Philadelphia headlined by Ben Simmons, in particular — the path Stone took is looking more attractive by the day.

According to Tim MacMahon of ESPN, Rockets ownership — namely, Tilman Fertitta and his son, Patrick — have noticed.

MacMahon writes:

Patrick Fertitta, Tilman’s son who is heavily involved in the Rockets’ day-to-day operations, credits Stone and assistant general manager Eli Witus for “making the hard and, at the time, very unpopular decision” to prioritize draft capital in the Harden trade. …

Patrick Fertitta: We made the decision from an ownership standpoint that our goal was to win a championship. In order to win a championship, you have to take material sacrifice and pain. I think [for] a lot of teams out there, a lot of organizations, a lot of ownership groups, a lot of front offices, their pain threshold doesn’t allow that.”

“We made a decision to go forward with that. It hasn’t been easy at times, but we’re committed to it, and we are aligned from ownership to the front office and on down the line to doing what it takes to give ourselves the highest probability of eventually winning a title. That’s the path we’ve chosen, and we’re sticking to it.”

Tilman Fertitta: If you look back at what we would have gotten versus the draft capital that we got, I couldn’t be happier with the decision.

It’s also worth noting that the path chosen by the Rockets allowed them to lose many more games in the 2020-21 season, which led to them maximizing their 2021 draft lottery odds and eventually drafting Jalen Green at No. 2 overall as a franchise cornerstone.

Had Houston acquired a package in the Harden trade with more immediate difference makers, the Rockets likely would have won more games. In that scenario, not only would the Rockets not have Green, but they likely would have tumbled in the first-round order — since Oklahoma City had a top-four-protected pick swap right with Houston.

It’s certainly not a victory lap, since Stone, Witus, and the rest of Houston’s front office still need to make appropriate choices with that draft capital. The Rockets also need to develop them in the right way. Whether Brooklyn actually breaks up its current core, or if they can find a way to salvage things with Irving, is still an open question. The answer could determine just how valuable those future picks are.

But in June 2022, 17 months after the Harden trade, the outlook is as positive as it realistically could be at such an early stage. The good news for Stone and Witus is that Houston’s ownership sees it, too.

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Matt Bullard excited by new challenge in Rockets’ front office

“I’ve already been to work, been looking at draft prospects,” Bullard told Mark Berman of Fox 26 Houston. “It’s been a blast so far.”

When longtime Houston Rockets player and broadcaster Matt Bullard announced that he wasn’t returning to his usual television role with AT&T SportsNet Southwest, he made clear that it wasn’t his decision.

However, that doesn’t mean that he isn’t excited about what’s to come in his new role as an analyst in Houston’s front office beneath general manager Rafael Stone. “This change for me is very exciting,” Bullard tells Mark Berman of Fox 26 Houston. “It’s a new challenge I’m really excited about. I’m looking forward. I’ve already been to work, been looking at draft prospects. It’s been a blast so far.”

The Rockets currently own three first-round picks in the July 29 draft, headlined by the No. 2 overall selection. As such, Bullard should have a busy month as he gets acquainted with many of the 2021 rookie prospects. NBA free agency then begins in the first week of August, which will prompt yet another round of player evaluations by teams.

Bullard and Chris Wallace, who spent nearly 20 years as a general manager with Boston and Memphis, are the newest additions to Stone’s staff. Outside of Stone and assistant general manager Eli Witus, all are broadly considered scouts or analysts and are not given a more formal job title — since Stone prioritizes a collaborative approach and wants his front office members to share input on all sorts of topics.

Houston’s full list of scouts and analysts now includes Bullard, Wallace, Ed Pinckney, Chuck Hayes, Matt Barlowe, Alain Digbeu, Jake Flancer, Ross Homan, Ed Kupfer, Jimmy Paulis, Javier Pesquera, Marko Radovanovic, Jason Roman, Ben Rubin, Travis Stockbridge, and Cole Zwicker.

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Meet Rafael Stone and Eli Witus, the Rockets’ new top executives

Rafael Stone becomes the 10th current Black executive to hold the GM title in the NBA, while Witus will serve as his top lieutenant.

With the sudden departure of Daryl Morey, the Houston Rockets will have a new general manager for the first time since early 2007.

Houston’s new GM is Rafael Stone, and he becomes just the 10th current Black executive to hold that title in the NBA. Most recently, Stone was executive vice president of basketball operations, effectively making him Morey’s top lieutenant with the Rockets last season.

Eli Witus. who was previously assistant GM, will be promoted into Stone’s prior role as the No. 2 man in basketball operations.

Here’s how longtime Houston Chronicle beat writer Jonathan Feigen describes the recent roles of Stone and Witus in the front office:

Stone, the team’s former general counsel, has become increasingly involved in the Rockets’ front office decision making for several years along with Witus and Monte McNair, who became general manager with the Sacramento Kings.

McNair served more as a liaison with the coaching staff, typically traveling with the team, with Stone and Witus working more closely with Morey and former Rockets executive Gersson Rosas, the president of basketball operations with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Stone joined the Rockets in 2005 as general counsel (which actually predates the hiring of Morey), and he increasingly took on larger roles within basketball operations over the years. Meanwhile, Witus joined the team three years later. He started as a statistical analyst in 2008, and has since led the Rockets’ analytics department and cap management since his promotion to vice president of basketball operations in 2013.

When Stone and Witus were promoted to their most recent positions in April 2019 (to help compensate for the loss of Gersson Rosas, who took the top basketball operations job in Minnesota), here’s what Morey said:

We are very fortunate to have Rafael and Eli. They work wonderfully together providing strategic insight and analysis. Collectively, they are on the cutting edge of basketball decision making and have been key to our ability to put the team in the place we are today. It is important to us organizationally to be flexible and creative as we find ways to add to our roster, and these two are at the forefront of that effort.

Whether it be acquiring Chris Paul two years ago or signing Clint Capela this summer, we are leaning on them to identify winning players and figure out the best method of fitting them into our team.

Prior to joining the Rockets and Toyota Center, Stone practiced in Dewey Ballantine LLP’s mergers and acquisitions and capital markets group. While working in that capacity with Dewey Ballantine, Stone represented acquirers, targets, investment banks, investors, and issuers in numerous acquisitions and financings.

A native of Seattle, Washington, Stone received a bachelor’s degree in history and political science from Williams College in 1994 and graduated from Stanford Law School in 1997. He also played varsity basketball at Williams College for four years. Stone currently resides in Houston with his wife, Felicia, and their three children.

Considering the experience that Stone and Witus have with Morey over the years, the Rockets are not expected to see a major transition in their innovative, analytics-driven approach. Under Morey’s watch, the Rockets have the NBA’s longest streak of consecutive playoff berths.

Morey is staying on with the Rockets in a short-term advisory role as the front office completes its search for a new head coach. The decision to leave was entirely Morey’s call, as confirmed to Rockets Wire by a team source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the situation.

As expected, Houston owner Tilman Fertitta and CEO Tad Brown will remain in their usual places at the top of the organizational hierarchy.

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