Jalen Hurts is making his first NFL start against a tough New Orleans Saints defense. How can he succeed? In two ways.
Well, it is official. The Philadelphia Eagles have named rookie Jalen Hurts as their starting quarterback for Week 14. With Carson Wentz struggling with ineffectiveness Doug Pederson turned to the rookie midway through last week’s loss to the Green Bay Packers. Hurts provided a spark, hitting Jalen Reagor on a deep vertical route in the third quarter and throwing his first NFL touchdown pass in the fourth, but it was not enough to overcome a deficit at Lambeau Field.
Will his game be enough for what awaits him Sunday?
The Eagles make this switch at perhaps the most inopportune moment on their schedule. In Week 14 they’ll see a New Orleans Saints defense that has been a bit of a wrecking ball this season. Need evidence? Just a few weeks ago they demolished the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and in the loss veteran passer Tom Brady turned in one of the worst statistical performances of his career. Brady posted an NFL passer rating of just 40.4 in the loss, his worst outing since the opening week of the 2003 season. In that game, a 31-0 loss at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, Brady threw four interceptions and ESPN’s Tom Jackson would rail after the game that the Patriots — due to the trade of Lawyer Milloy — hated their coach.
New England would win the Super Bowl.
But this is 2020, and things have changed. The Saints are a tough defense, and they have forced bad games from quarterbacks not named Brady this season as well. As of Week 14 the Saints are ranked second in the league in Defensive DVOA. (Oh, and the Cardinals, who the Eagles play next week, are ranked 13th). Now it is true that the Saints get the statistical benefit of playing against a practice squad wide receiver a few weeks ago when the Denver Broncos were forced to turn to Kendall Hinton, but still, this is a good defense.
Two things of note, however, might illuminate a path for Hurts to have success against New Orleans Sunday.
First, the Saints as of last week were leading the league in playing “2-Man,” or Cover 2, Man Underneath:
This coverage has two weak areas: Between the two deep safeties and deep along the sidelines. As luck would have it, deep along the sideline is where Hurts connected with his fellow rookie last week:
So, expect some shot plays in the vertical passing game. Hurts’ ability as a touch passer was a strength of his coming out of Oklahoma, and could be a factor on Sunday.
The other element that could be a factor in his favor against the Saints is his athleticism, but not the way you might think. The Saints have been very good at getting pressure on opposing passers this season. New Orleans has a Pressure Percentage of 25.4%, which is fifth-most in the league. They also have 36 quarterback sacks, third-most in the league.
Yet that has left them susceptible to plays in scramble drill situations, when the guys up front cannot finish the play and the quarterback is able to create off structure and/or outside of the pocket. Here’s Nick Mullens creating outside the pocket late in the down against the Saints:
Now here’s Teddy Bridgewater spinning away from multiple defenders before finding a receiver downfield in a scramble drill situation:
And wouldn’t you know it, that first touchdown pass of Hurts’ career came on a…scramble drill play:
Rookie QB Jalen Hurts is getting thrown into the deep end for his first career start. However, his touch in the downfield passing game against Cover 2 Man Under coverages, as well as his ability to create outside of the pocket in response to the Saints’ pressure game, could give him some opportunities to produce big plays in the passing game.
The selection of Jalen Hurts by the Philadelphia Eagles raised eyebrows. His fit in their offense might be a window into their future.
NFL teams are, by their nature, secretive operations.
Consider how teams like the New England Patriots handle their injury reports. Some of their designations are reminiscent of the summertime, when an NHL player can suffer a broken leg and rather than give away their true injury, the organization will release news that the player suffered a “lower body contusion.” When you are chasing the Stanley Cup, you cannot give your opponents a literal target to hit. It is the same with the Patriots. Reports are filled with grey areas.
But every so often we get a window into how a team actually views themselves, and one of those windows is the draft. We get a chance to see how teams view their roster and what positions they feel must be addressed, and we even get a glimpse into how they might tweak their schemes as the next few years unfold.
One of the more interestin potential scheme fits from this entire draft is the marriage of Jalen Hurts to the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense. Head coach Doug Pederson is a branch off the Andy Reid coaching tree. An offensive system built upon the traditional West Coast offense. Carson Wentz came out of a West Coast system at North Dakota State, making his fit in the Eagles’ system an easier transition than other rookies face.
But Hurts? Hurts comes from an Air Raid system. While Lincoln Riley and Pederson both have versions of “Mesh,” that Air Raid staple, in their playbooks, there are other elements of those two systems that are not as similar. So how can Hurts project into such a system? Furthermore what, if anything, does this mean for Carson Wentz?
Before diving into this, one thing to remember. Scheme fits – particularly projecting them – sometimes cause the fiercest debates in NFL front offices. Former NFL scout Dan Hatman, now the director of the Scouting Academy, has told me many times about how scouts and executives might evaluate a given player the same exact way in terms of his traits and abilities, but clash bitterly over what scheme fit the player would be best suited to operate in. Getting that fit right might be the toughest – but most critical – part of the draft process.
Projecting the West Coast Fit
(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)
The first step in projecting Jalen Hurts into the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense, as it currently stands, begins where all nerdy deep film dives begin.
In a playbook.
Thinking about Hurts in the Philadelphia offense requires an analysis of what the Eagles do offensively. Working through their playbook, you can then cross-reference some of what Hurts was asked to do under Lincoln Riley and see what worked, and what did not.
Let’s start with a design that the Eagles love to run, fade-smash. This is a fade route from the slot receiver with a hitch route on the outside. The Eagles can also run it out of a trips formation, using a stick route or a hitch route from the #3, or inside receiver. That looks like this:
As you can see, the middle receiver “F” runs a vertical route that will adjust depending on the coverage. If the secondary is in a coverage that is part of the Cover 2 family (the “2H” indication) then there will be a space between the safeties in the middle of the field. This is commonly referred to as a “middle of the field (MOFO)” coverage. Then the F receiver bends his route towards that vacant area of the field. If there is a single-high safety (“1H”) such as in a Cover 3 scheme, the F receiver stays more vertical. If there is man coverage, he will bend to the outside on more of a fade.
Here is Hurts running virtually this design against South Dakota from 2019, with a trips look to the right side of the formation:
Put yourself into the mind of the quarterback before the ball is snapped. Working outside in on the trips side of the formation, you see a press coverage cornerback with inside alignment. Then you see three safeties in the middle of the field, with one of them aligned over the middle trips receiver, seven yards off the football and using outside leverage. Then you see the inside receiver, with a bubble over him. The linebackers are down in blitz posture and perhaps the nearest defender in a coverage position pre-snap is a safety, 11 yards off the ball.
If you were the quarterback, which of those three routes are you throwing the football to?
As you might expect, Hurts sees pre-snap that the inside route is the best option, and that is what he throws:
The snap is slightly low, which might play a slight role in the result of the play, but more distressing is the loop in the throwing motion. Hurts has an elongated drawback to his motion here, akin to an English longbowsman drawing his bow hand back before letting loose. It might seem like nothing at first blush, but in a West Coast system, where the core philosophy is getting the football out of the quarterback’s hands quickly to targets in space so they can operate after the catch, even the slightest of delays is deadly.
Consider this. As illustrated in our writeup of Hurts before the draft, his average snap-to-throw time last year was 3.08 seconds. Now some of that can be attributed to his ability to scramble, extend plays and make things happen in scramble drill situations, but 3.08 seconds would have been dead last in the NFL last season. Only Kirk Cousins, with an average snap-to-throw time of 3.01 seconds, would have been close to that mark, and Cousins was also the only qualifying quarterback north of three seconds. Wentz (you know, the starting quarterback in the offense we are analyzing) averaged 2.71 seconds. Other quarterbacks in West Coast-based systems put up similar numbers, such as Mitchell Trubisky (2.64 seconds), Jimmy Garoppolo (2.65 seconds) and Drew Brees (2.57 seconds).
Perhaps comparing Hurts to his true peers and not NFL starters would be a more fair comparison. Looking at the other draftable quarterbacks in this class, Hurts was the only passer who eclipsed a snap-to-throw time of 2.75 seconds. Steven Montez, from Colorado, was next-highest with an average of 2.73 seconds. Joe Burrow averaged 2.70 seconds, Jake Fromm averaged 2.50 seconds, and Tua Tagovailoa averaged 2.57 seconds.
So, this is an issue, and part of the problem is the elongated release. On this example we also saw another issue with his mechanics, a very wide throwing base. Putting these together, Hurts on film displayed some mechanical inconsistencies that are not a great fit for a quick-strike, West Coast offense.
Now to his credit, Hurts has done a good job of cleaning up his mechanics. His throwing session in Indianapolis during the Combine, for example, was one such illustration of the work he has done in this area. After the Combine Touchdown Wire declared him one of the “Winners” writing in part:
But scouts and evaluators knew that the Oklahoma signal-caller was athletic. What they wanted to see was more evidence that he can develop into an NFL passer. That is where his throwing session comes into play. He impressed during his throwing session, displaying tighter and crisper mechanics. In addition, the ball popped out of his hand very well. For example, he delivered on a well-placed out route to Isaiah Hodges along the left sideline, as well and a great dig route to Antonio Gandy-Golden off of a deep drop into the pocket. Those throws highlighted some improved footwork from the quarterback. Hurts helped himself this week, especially when you consider how well he likely performed in his interviews with teams.
Yet…how often have we heard and seen stories like this? Consider the saga of Blake Bortles. Coming out of UCF one of the knocks on him as a quarterback was his mechanical flaws. In his pre-draft report on him at NFL.com, Nolan Nawrocki wrote: “Could stand to shorten his release — wraps the ball slightly at the beginning of his windup.” Bleacher Report described him as having a “somewhat elongated delivery.” But he worked on his mechanics, and when he made the decision to throw at the Combine, he left people impressed with his suddenly “perfect mechanics.” Dane Brugler described his throwing session by saying that Bortles “didn’t disappoint with the spotlight on him, displaying his smooth set up and release and tossing darts down the field.” That continued into his Pro Day, vaulting him to the top of the board.
But you know how this story ends.
Bortles’ mechanics were a consistent issue during his time in Jacksonville with the Jaguars. Every preseason there were stories about how he worked on his throwing motion during the offseason, and yet once the games started, that elongated delivery was back. For example, there is this story from March of 2017 highlighting how he adjusted his mechanics. Or a story from that summer here at Touchdown Wire outlining how he has fixed his mechanics…again. Then just a few months later, the poor mechanics are “back” and his issues might be “not easily solved.”
It is an issue of muscle memory. When you are throwing routes versus air during the offseason or one-on-ones during training camp, you can keep those mechanical fixes in your mind. But when the Von Millers of the world are trying to cause you physical harm, you don’t care about the tinkering you’ve done with your throwing motion, because you’re trying to stay alive. Muscle memory takes over, and the poor habits of the past surface anew.
Can Hurts avoid such a fate? Only time will tell, but it poses a problem for a potential transition to a West Coast based system where quick throws and timing are essential.
There is another issue here, and that is one of a mental perspective. At this point in his career, Hurts is more of a “see it, throw it” passer. Anticipatory throws are not his strong suit. Far too often on film he waits to see a route come open before releasing the ball, and again, this is an issue in a West Coast system.
Take this play against South Dakota:
Look at how long Hurts waits to throw this seam route. Now perhaps he was fixated on holding the free safety in the middle of the field, but there is a window to throw this early for a huge play. But he waits, and by that time the distance the throw needs to carry invites the safety – who Hurts moved out of position – back into the route to make a play on the football.
Take this throw from the National Championship Game:
Hurts has an opportunity to make an anticipation throw here on this out route to the right sideline. If he pulls the trigger with the break, this is a first down. Heck, if he even throws it a bit late, it is a completion. But he stares it down, then double-clutches, and eventually makes it a much tougher throw. Which is nearly intercepted.
This is why the potential fit in Philadelphia’s offense is troublesome. The one-two punch of an elongated delivery and a “see it, throw it” mentality is not a fit for a West Coast offense predicated on quick throws, timing and rhythm, and yardage after the catch.
