In a lightweight bout in the main event, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje meet Saturday at UFC 291 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims are on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET, with the prelims are on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET and the main card is on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
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Records: Poirier (29-7-0) | Gaethje (24-4-0)
Poirier posted a 3rd-round submission victory over Michael Chandler last time out in November at UFC 281 as he bounced back from a submission loss to Charles Oliveira in a title fight at UFC 269 in December 2021. He has had 4 consecutive finishes since last going the distance against Dan Hooker in June 2020.
Gaethje has alternated wins and losses in his past 5 fights. He lost a title bout to Oliveira at UFC 274 before bouncing back with a majority-decision win over Rafael Fiziev at UFC 286 in March. He has gone the distance in 2 of the past 3 bouts. However, those are the only 2 times he has gone the distance in his 10 fights at the UFC level.
These 2 fighters met in the main event in a UFC Fight Night in mid-April 2018, with Poirier picking up the KO/TKO win in the 4th round.
Poirier holds a 2-inch reach advantage but Gaethje has a 7.38-to-5.51 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Gaethje is also slightly more accurate with his strikes, landing 60.57% to 54.94% for Poirier. However, Poirier has an edge with a 1.39-to-0.13 takedown average advantage and he has a 1.24 submission average, too.
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UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Poirier -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Gaethje +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under +105)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +180 | No -250)
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
The play is POIRIER (-150) straight up as the moderate favorite. While he has 2 losses in the past 6 fights those setbacks are both in title fights against Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov, neither of whom are slouches.
The former champ has shown he can do it a number of ways, winning twice via KO/TKO, once by way of submission and another by unanimous decision across the past 5 fights. His versatility will help him in this rematch.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-135) is a strong play as Gaethje has gone the distance in 2 of his last 3 outings. While I don’t think he gets the job done, I think he will make Poirier work very hard for the victory.
I believe this will be Poirier’s first fight to go the distance since he got by Hooker at UFC Fight Night in June 2020. I believe YES (+180): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a huge value.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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