In a lightweight bout on the main card, Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler meet Saturday at UFC 281 at Madison Square Garden in New York. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC 281: Poirier vs. Chandler odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the prelims on ESPNews/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.
Poirier is looking to bounce back after getting submitted by Charles Oliveira in a tight fight at UFC 269 in mid-Dec last time out. Each of his past 3 fights has finished inside the distance, and he has 8 stoppages in his last 10 outings overall.
Poirier has a slight 1-inch height advantage and a half-inch reach advantage. It’s fairly even in the significant strikes department, with Poirier holding a small 5.61-to-5.17 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.
Chandler knocked out Tony Ferguson early in Round 2 at UFC 274 in May, and 3 of his 4 fights at the UFC level ended via knockout, with 2 wins and 1 loss. He also has a unanimous-decision loss by Justin Gaethje at UFC 268 last Nov. during the span.
The former Bellator title holder is looking to position himself for another title shot, but he has work to do. Chandler has a slight advantage with a 1.83-to-1.44 takedown average lead, while the 2 fighters are identical with a 36.84% takedown accuracy percentage.
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UFC 281: Poirier vs. Chandler odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Poirier -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Chandler +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +120)
- Fight to go distance: Yes (+200) | No (-290)
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UFC 281: Poirier vs. Chandler picks and predictions
Records: Poirier (28-7-0) | Chandler (23-7-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
CHANDLER (+175) is the value play here on the 2-way line.
The former Bellator champ is a punching machine, and win or lose, his fights are must-see TV. He has been a little sloppy during his time with the UFC, stepping into the fist of Oliveira at UFC 262 and losing by unanimous-decision against Gaethje. However, Dan Hooker and Ferguson know about the punching power, with both fighters on the end of a TKO/KO loss.
The 33-year-old Poirier is going to be locked in a war, and he is going to be on the short end of yet another Chandler knockout. CHANDLER BY TKO/KO (+430) is worth a look in the method of victory section for a chance to multiply your initial wager by more than 4 times.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-165) is worth a roll of the dice here, despite the temptation of playing Under at plus-money.
Yes, in 3 of Chandler’s 4 fights at the UFC level, Under 1.5 Rounds has cashed. However, Poirier has managed to go Over 1.5 Rounds in 10 of his previous 11 fights. He has championship potential, and he isn’t going to go quietly into the night.
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