MLS is not immune to its silly season moments, and with the league’s transfer window opening on Thursday, it appears that Toronto FC is trying to be involved in every trade and transfer rumor out there.
Not long after Italy attacker Lorenzo Insigne arrived in town ahead of a likely debut for TFC Saturday, July 9 against the San Jose Earthquakes, Pro Soccer Wire broke news that TFC is looking to trade Mexico center back Carlos Salcedo.
On Tuesday, the news got even more frantic. First, multiple reports said Inter Miami was about acquire Alejandro Pozuelo in a trade with Toronto. Then, MLSsoccer.com reported that the Pozuelo trade, if completed, would open the door for Toronto to sign a second Italian international, with Federico Bernardeschi apparently their target.
Let’s try to come to grips with why all of these deals are happening at once.
TFC is bad right now
The Reds have been an ambitious club for years, but 2021 was a disaster for the club, and 2022 hasn’t been much better. Despite making a splash in signing Bob Bradley to take over after Greg Vanney’s departure, an inexperienced TFC side is in 12th place in the Eastern Conference with 18 points. Only the Chicago Fire (0.94) and Sporting Kansas City (0.84) have a worse points-per-game rate than TFC’s 1.00.
The underlying data says that this is actually fortunate for TFC. According to data from FBref, Toronto’s -16.6 expected goals difference is—by a whopping 5.5 goals!—the worst in MLS. Even with Bradley installing a progressive style of play and astute additions like underrated forward Jesús Jiménez, it’s been a debacle of a season.
And that’s the thing about ambitious clubs that also have deep pockets like TFC does: right or wrong, they don’t just accept a debacle of a season.
Salcedo on the outs
We should start with the look to ship Salcedo out. He, like Jiménez, was added this winter, and the idea was that an active Mexican national team defender with MLS experience should be a big boost to a defense that needed it.
Instead, Salcedo has struggled mightily at the heart of the TFC defense. American Soccer Analysis’s Goals Added metric, a rough guide to a player’s total contributions, rates Salcedo as the third-worst center back in MLS this season. It simply hasn’t been a good fit, whether that’s on Salcedo, Bradley, compatibility with teammates, or all of the above.
To be fair to Salcedo, though, this extends throughout the squad. The only TFC defender with a positive Goals Added rating is Jakheele Marshall-Rutty, who is both more of a winger than a defender, and who has largely been coming off the bench while Toronto chases games, allowing his attacking tendencies to be the emphasis.
Still, when you’re letting up over two expected goals per game (TFC is by some distance the worst in MLS in xGA), someone’s gotta go, and Salcedo occupies a Designated Player slot to boot. It’s not a shock that a team wanting to make major changes is looking his way first.
Insigne In
TFC’s biggest offseason move was also MLS’s biggest offseason move: a stunning move to sign a current Italian international who was filling the nets in Serie A. Insigne’s last two campaigns for Napoli saw him produce 30 goals and 16 assists in the league, and Insigne was first-choice as they qualified for the Champions League this season.
MLS teams just don’t often sign a player in that stratosphere before they turn 33 or 34, and while Insigne is close (he’s 31), it’s still a remarkable turn of events. Insigne’s contract begins when the transfer window opens, and it’ll make him the league’s highest-paid player.
There’s little reason to doubt that he’ll be a great help to TFC, no matter if he lines up on the left wing or as a center forward. Jiménez has scored eight goals, but after him the attack has been tepid or worse. Jonathan Osorio and Pozuelo, who we’ll address in a moment, have four goals apiece, and then it really dries up from there.
On a per-game basis, TFC has the second-worst xG in MLS, and it’s largely because Jiménez is their lone goal threat. Insigne’s not going to fix the defense, but at the very least he gives Toronto a chance to win some shootouts.
Adios, Pozuelo + Ciao, Bernarseschi?
TFC is, as we discussed, apparently about to trade Pozuelo to Miami in order to open up room for another Serie A vet, Federico Bernardeschi. The 28-year-old winger is a free agent, but he’s also a prime-years attacking player who just spent five seasons regularly contributing for Juventus…so yeah, they need a DP spot.
The other aspect here is that Bradley has largely played Pozuelo, a natural No. 10, out on the right. That’s not new for Pozuelo, who was nominally a right forward under Vanney somewhat frequently, but it’s asking him to play a bit out of position for the good of the team. That’s not a great situation for a DP; you generally want those players in exactly their right position and role.
There’s also a question of fitness with Pozuelo, who was only available for about half of TFC’s games last year, and never seemed close to 100% in a miserable one goal/four assist campaign. He’s only missed two games in 2022, and his four goals/five assists are pretty good given the nightmare taking place around him, but consider this: on top of the whole “regular for Juventus” aspect, TFC would be getting younger by swapping Pozuelo out and replacing him with Bernardeschi.
While it’s probably not a good idea to trade Pozuelo within the East, where he will immediately solve some serious problems for a Miami side that is like TFC below the red line, it’s something of a “beggars can’t be choosers” moment. If a player with Bernardeschi’s profile wants to come to your MLS club and give a serious effort, you find a way to make it happen.
What should we expect?
Bottom line, these are good moves, but they’re not going to solve everything for TFC. Adding Insigne and Bernardeschi will allow Bradley to move back into a 4-3-3 formation, which seems to be his preference, and Jiménez has proven to be a good enough finisher feeding on scraps that his strike rate should grow once both Italians are up and running.
Still, trading Salcedo alone doesn’t cure a defense in which every player seems to be underperforming, and Bradley has stuck to his guns in terms of playing an open brand of possession soccer. TFC will take risks going forward, and a defense that has been a catastrophe will have to succeed while exposed.
One way this might help out is just a simple fear factor. Right now, everyone that plays Toronto attacks them, because why wouldn’t you? They can’t stop anyone right now, so teams are confident they’ll get the goals they need to win. That willingness to be open against Toronto will probably shift once the Serie A-caliber upgrades are there to worry about.
In fact, their hopes may hinge on a move that isn’t getting as much attention: Domenico Criscito, yet another Serie A vet, was signed this past Wednesday, and is already training with the team. While it’s not necessarily great policy to sign 35 year olds in MLS, TFC could suddenly improve quite a bit if Criscito—who, it must be noted, played in 20 games for Genoa in 2021-22—can give them a few good months.
It’s reasonable to expect that Insigne and Bernardeschi will improve a moribund attack. If Criscito can help guide the defense out of their current, awful form, there’s a slim chance we see another late-season charge up the table that is baked into seemingly every MLS season.
