Tag: dfs value picks

We are facing the first CoVid related terrorism this week. As if we needed more fantasy stars out. This time they may not even be injured, but they will miss this week because someone else in their team bubble got the bug. If you have Steelers or Titans adjust appropriately. DK and FD have both removed these players from this slate, so double-check any previously submitted lineups to swap them out. As for the disease, will we ever find out who the NFL’s Rudy Gobert was? Probably not, but it will be interesting to see if there are any other mysterious injury designations on the Week 5 injury report for the Titans.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Sunday, the Eagles head west to San Francisco in the battle of sixth string WRs and injured TEs. Never did I ever think that I’d be considering Nick Mullens above Carson Wentz in rankings. Fortunately, they are both ranked below Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Whomever actually plays at RB for San Fran is a worthy starter. If both Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon miss this game, I’d rank Jeff Wilson at RB2 on this slate behind only Aaron Jones. If either Mostert or McKinnon plays, they will cut into Wilson’s total thus hurting all three of them. In that case, all of them will fall into the RB4 range. Miles Sanders is a very talented back, and one of the few healthy bodies on offense for Philly, but even injury-ravaged the Niners run defense is elite. At his price, he cannot be anything higher than RB4 on this slate. I’d love to see Philly use Boston Scott at Slot WR, it isn’t like they are using him in the running game. He can be ignored except in Showdown contests.

The Niners are starting to get their WRs back healthy. They still will have to wait at least one more week for Deebo Samuel. Brandon Aiyuk looks like the real deal for a future starter opposite Samuel. With injuries throughout both games at the WR position, he needs to be considered as a WR2/3. Kendrick Bourne also is in play at WR3. Mohamed Sanu has not clicked as fast as I would have hoped. I’ll leave him and Trent Taylor on the bench until we see more use from either.

Can you name the second and third WR for Philadelphia? Right now, with DeSean Jackson questionable, we may see Greg Ward and Deontay Burnett start, with John Hightower and the injured J.J. Arcega-Whiteside play supplemental roles. Ward (WR7 on the slate) is the only one worth playing and he is my favorite WR3 option. Reports have George Kittle ready to return this week. Coming off of the injury, he slides into TE2 territory, but don’t be surprised if his utilization is not full-go. Zach Ertz may receive 40 targets in this game, putting him firmly as the TE1 on this docket. In addition, Richard Rodgers actually finished Week 3 playing WR, but he qualifies at TE, making him a potential TE5. The team just added former WR, Hakeem Butler to play TE (although he qualifies at WR), so maybe they will end up trading jobs.  Either defense should be considered, but the Niners are the clear DEF1 this weekend.

Monday, We get two more confidence-inspiring QBs in Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. Ryan is the QB1 and the safest play on the docket. Ryan would normally be interchangeable with Rodgers, but Aaron has more injury concerns at WR. Aaron Jones is the easy RB1 as Atlanta has been rotten against the run. Green Bay has struggled to stop the run as well, but Brian Hill has started to butt into Todd Gurley’s workload. Gurley is no better than RB2 on this slate and may fall to RB3 if only one back is healthy for San Fran. Hill is a solid FLEX play, but he shouldn’t be among your top four choices.

Russell Gage left last week’s game with an injury and he is joining Julio Jones, Allen Lazard, and Davante Adams as high-end WRs that may or may not play. If Davante suits up, he is the WR1 on this slate. Otherwise, that role goes to Calvin Ridley (who is no lower than the WR2). Julio would be the WR2 if he goes.  I love Gage, and I hope he plays. If he does, he is in play at WR3. Also in that conversation is Marquez Valdes-Scantling. If both Gage and Jones are out for Atlanta, Olamide Zaccheaus could be a sneaky WR3 play, but I wouldn’t go as deep as Brandon Powell. Green Bay has dominated opposing TEs for a few years now. This is why I can’t rate Hayden Hurst higher than TE4 here. I actually will put Rodgers’ red zone target, Robert Tonyan in at TE3. I won’t have a lot of exposure to him, due to the presence of both Marcedes Lewis and Jace Sternberger. Still, Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the league against opposing TEs, so playing Tonyan or even Sternberger is not out of the question. Plus, they both need to be considered in Showdown formats. I expect this game to be fairly high-scoring, so I will look elsewhere for my defense.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $7.8K for either Russell Wilson. $8K for Alvin Kamara. $6K for Kenyan Drake. $6.8K for D.K Metcalf. $4.5K for Tee Higgins. $3.97K for Isaiah Ford or Gabriel Davis for less if John Brown is out. $4.3K for Dalton Schultz. $5.9K for Devin Singletary at FLEX. $3K for the Jaguars’ defense.

At FD: $9K for Wilson. $8.8K for Kamara. $6K for Singletary. $6.5K for Devante Parker. $6.9K for Metcalf. $5.7K for Jarvis Landry. $4.9K for Schultz. $7K for Drake at FLEX. $5K for the Ravens’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night: Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick at SF, Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Metcalf, Parker, Landry, Drew Sample, and either Drake or Singletary at FLEX.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – The Miami-Seattle contest is this week’s DAL-SEA contest from last week. Obviously, Ryan Fitzpatrick is not Dak Prescott. Still, Fitz is a capable veteran with some solid weapons around him. He also is considerably cheaper than Dak was last week. I love Fitzpatrick in DFS this week. This is truly the first time that we have had a high-leverage playable asset as a value-priced QB on the main slate. It should also be clear that Russell Wilson is a clear #1 option at the position once again. Among the pivots, up high are Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Deshaun Watson (assuming the Vikings/Texans game is played as planned). I can also go a little cheaper and use Joe Burrow, Gardner Minshew, or Baker Mayfield. That said, if I am going to spend down, I might as well spend down on Fitzpatrick.

Fantasy Four Pack

Russell Wilson, Seahawks @ MIA ($7800 DK, $9000 FD)
FD is giving Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson the CMAC treatment at QB pricing them both over $9K. Jackson has a slightly tougher matchup, but he is still a decent option, but Russell Wilson is on historical record pace. I doubt that Wilson will throw another five TDs, but 350-3 is a pretty impressive floor. Plus, there is an increased likelihood that Wilson could score a rushing TD with Chris Carson likely out.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens @ WAS ($8100 DK, $9600 FD)
Washington is going to have to deal with the problem of an angry Lamar Jackson this week. Jackson, coming off one of his worst performances ever, will no doubt be looking to recement himself as one of the top-three dynasty options despite his inability to win the big one versus Patrick Mahomes. The Football Team actually has a decent defense, especially up front. This is the only reason that I am not going to give Jackson a GREEN grade. That said, Lamar could easily channel his inner Hulk and turn himself green.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. CLE ($7200 DK, $8200 FD)
Only two teams have allowed more passing TDs than Cleveland. One of those teams is the Dallas Cowboys. Baker Mayfield is not Russell Wilson, but he can use his weapons to keep this game competitive. This will force Dak Prescott to keep his foot on the accelerator. I’m certain that the SEA-MIA game will draw a lot of attention from the DFS world, making this contest a sneaky pivot, for both Dak and Baker.

Patrick Mahomes vs. NE ($7400 DK, $8700 FD)
Last week, Patrick Mahomes proved to the world that no team can truly stop him. New England will try here. The Lord knows, that Bill Belichick prides himself on taking away an opponents’ biggest weapon. Well, go ahead Bill. Try to take away Tyreek Hill and watch Travis Kelce beat you. Try to take away both of them and watch Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins beat you. Take away all four of them, and Mahomes will throw the ball to their fullback and their tackle-eligible and win that way. Simply put, there is no way to stop this offense. You can barely hope to contain it. Through three career meetings, Mahomes has averaged 2.6 TDs and 310 passing yards against the Patriots. That is always his floor.

DFS Sleepers

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins vs. SEA ($5400 DK, $7100 FD)
Ryan Fitzpatrick is my favorite sleeper of the week. Despite his puny DK price, he just missed making the top four overall for the week. Seattle has the second-best passing offense in football. The best passing offense in football belongs to whoever is facing them. Through three weeks, Seattle is allowing an average of 440 passing yards per game and two passing TDs per game. Plus they have also allowed two QB rushing TDs. Fitzpatrick is no spring chicken, but he has been known to rush one in from time to time. To fit all the top RBs and WRs into your lineup, Fitz is such a perfect play. My only concern here is that it seems like every season Ryan has one sure thing game that he underperforms in. Let us hope its not this one.

Baker Mayfield, Browns @ DAL ($5800 DK, $7000 FD)
Dallas will have no problem scoring at will in this game. This means, that Baker Mayfield will be forced to throw the ball extensively to stay in the game. With weapons such as Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, Austin Hooper, Odell Beckham, and Jarvis Landry, Baker has no excuses for not fighting here. Plus, since the game is in Dallas, Baker doesn’t have to worry about cleaning up the stadium afterward.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Alvin Kamara is the easy lock and load option as long as Michael Thomas remains out. Even if Thomas returns, Kamara’s price tag makes him a safe 3x play. It would be very hard, but fitting both Kamara and Ezekiel Elliott into a lineup would be glorious. Dalvin Cook is a nice pivot play from those two, assuming the Vikings play their game. I will likely use one of that threesome paired with either James Robinson or Kenyan Drake. The other mid-priced RBs that I like this week are Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson, Mike Davis, and Joe Mixon. This gives you a list of nine players to mix and match from in filling your RB1, RB2, and FLEX. The cheap options are just not interesting this week. I suppose that you could trot out Adrian Peterson for potential volume or Chase Edmonds for the great matchup, but I’d pass.

Fantasy Four Pack

Alvin Kamara, Saints @ DET ($8000 DK, $8800 FD)
Detroit hasn’t been nearly as bad against the run as you probably think. Still, Alvin Kamara is the New Orleans’ offense with Michael Thomas out. Now, should Thomas manage to return this week, lower your expectations slightly. Even then, he should be able to secure 125-2, with seven or more receptions. So, even with Thomas, Kamara is a lock for 3x performance. This price is just too low to not take advantage of.

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys vs. CLE ($7800 DK, $9000 FD)
Cleveland’s RB rushing numbers against are very low. Of course, in the last two weeks, they have faced teams not interested in establishing the run. Dallas on the other hand will have every intention of steamrolling the Browns with Ezekiel Elliott. The DK price is very nice for Elliott, but I don’t love paying $9K for him on FD. Especially if this game becomes a shootout between two bad pass defenses. Fortunately, Zeke is used in the passing game as well.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings @ HOU ($7600 DK, $8700 FD)
Pay attention the next couple of days to verify that the Vikings are playing. As of today, Minnesota and Houston are scheduled to face off without postponement. Still, with CoVid issues related to the Vikings’ Week 3 opponent Tennessee, things could turn fast. Houston has allowed the most rushing yards to opposing RBs and they have given up a rushing TD to every #1 RB they have faced.  Dalvin Cook was finally allowed to Russ this week, and he finished with 199 total yards and a score. I’d be happy with 2/3 of that here.

Kenyan Drake, Cardinals @ CAR ($6000 DK, $7000 FD)
Kenyan Drake has been so-so so far this year. Part of that is because Arizona has been so pass-happy. Part of that is also because Kliff Kingsbury is committed to giving Chase Edmonds significant touches. Finally, part of this is because Kyler Murray is channeling his inner Lamar Jackson. Drake won’t have any trouble putting up big yardage against a Carolina run defense that has been historically bad for a season plus now. The Panthers are allowing 188 total yards per game to opposing backs, 2.3 total touchdowns, and 11 receptions per game. Edmonds is also in play as a cheap punt, but Drake will top 125-1 without much effort.

DFS Sleepers

Devin Singletary, Bills @ LV ($5900 DK, $6000 FD)
Carolina is bad against RBs, and now in true Las Vegas form, the Raiders want their piece of the action. No team (including Carolina) has allowed more RB total yards. The Raiders are only tied with Carolina for the most total TDs allowed to the position. The Panthers still hold the advantage in RB receptions allowed, but Vegas is a close second and the Raiders have given up more RB receiving yards. What I am leading to is that while everyone knows that Carolina gets smoked by running backs, people may not be aware of how bad Vegas has been. Devin Singletary has had a slight advantage in touches over Zack Moss, and with Moss out last week, Singletary nearly reached his first two weeks stats combined. Early reports have Moss returning this week, but if he does miss this game or is limited, Singletary will go off. Of course, even if Moss plays Singletary should still post a big line here.

Mike Davis, Panthers vs. ARI ($5700 DK, $6300 FD)
So, is Christian McCaffrey a system RB? Mike Davis didn’t completely replicate McCaffrey’s production, but I’m certain his owners were not upset with 91 total yards, eight receptions, and a score. Arizona has been solid against the run, but they have allowed the fifth-most RB receiving yards, despite holding opponents to only 4.3 RB receptions per game. Davis’ price tag is only slightly higher than that of CMAC normally, which makes his ability to reach 3x value that much easier.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy –  Michael Thomas may return this week, but at what percent. I’d be more inclined to give him a chance if the sites had given us a returning from injury discount. It isn’t happening though, so just ignore him. I believe DeAndre Hopkins could have a very good game, but he has now missed a couple of consecutive practices this week. Check his Friday practice status before using him. Or better yet, just skip both of them and use your Cowboys and Seahawks again. Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Amari Cooper all should be in your consideration every week at WR1. Metcalf is my favorite this week as teams may be more in on Lockett due to his three scores last week. Lest they forget that DK should have had a second score as well, if not for his bone-headed play. If you don’t choose one of those three consider target hog Keenan Allen. For WR2 I am targeting one of the following: Tyler Boyd, Will Fuller, Odell Beckham, DeVante Parker (my favorite), or Jarvis Landry. If you spend less at RB2, you may consider starting three from the above two lists. Otherwise, there are several decent WR3 options. My favorites this week are Andy Isabella, Tee Higgins, Preston Williams (if you don’t use DaVante Parker), Cole Beasley (especially if John Brown misses the game), and Laviska Shenault. Beyond them, there are a few cheap punt choices. I won’t use them unless I end up $24K+ at RB/FLEX. Danny Amendola, the Bills’ reserve options if Brown doesn’t play, and Damiere Byrd are the ones that interest me the most.

Fantasy Four Pack

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks @ MIA ($7900 DK, $7500 FD)
Three TDs and 9-100 on a team-high 13 targets, Tyler Lockett won’t reach these lofty figures every week. Still, his elite-level speed puts him into a position to break any catch into a touchdown. He has topped 90 yards and/or scored in every contest this season. Both will happen this week, just don’t count on three scores. Last year, no team gave up more WR touchdowns than Miami. They’ve improved this season, but not that much.

DK Metcalf, Seahawks @ MIA ($6800 DK, $6900 FD)
Yes, the top two WR scorers this week will come from the same team. Russell Wilson tried to get DK Metcalf two deep TDs last week. Unfortunately for DK, his nonchalance ended up in a fumbled touchback on one of those attempts. Through three weeks, Metcalf has exactly four catches each week. He has topped 90 receiving yards in each of those games and he has scored in each of those games too. I expect more catches this week, but the 90+ yards and the TD are locks as well. I will actually have more exposure to Metcalf than Lockett due to the price difference and recency bias which may have the chalk bets on Lockett instead. Still, if you want to do the triple stack with Russell, go right ahead.

Amari Cooper, Cowboys vs. CLE ($6700 DK, $7100 FD)
Amari Cooper doesn’t get to face the rotten Seahawks’ pass defense this week. Fortunately for his owners, Cleveland’s secondary isn’t much better. Opposing #1 WRs are averaging 5.3-89 against them, but only one has scored so far. That said, they have faced two mediocre offenses and a Ravens’ offense that is more run-focused. Cooper is the safest option week-to-week in this passing offense, and 7-100-1 is always in play.

Keenan Allen, Chargers @ TB ($6500 DK, $6900 FD)
Justin Herbert is already a better QB than Tyrod Taylor could ever dream of being. He also knows to throw to pepper one of the surest-handed receivers in the recent history of football in Keenan Allen. The two games that the pair have played together have featured 29 targets for Allen, including 19 last week. This has worked out to 20-228-1 for Allen over that pair of games. Tampa Bay wasn’t tested Week 1 when Michael Thomas left the game early with an injury. Since then, they have given up 13-175 to Carolina and Denver’s #1 WRs. I shouldn’t have to tell you that Herbert is already a better QB than either Teddy Bridgewater or Jeff Driskel as well. For those wanting to pivot completely from the Seahawks game, this is the easy pick.

DFS Sleepers

DeVante Parker, Dolphins vs. SEA ($5700 DK, $6500 FD)
Whoever faces Seattle this season will have to chuck the pigskin repeatedly to stay in contention. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not opposed to that, he has nothing to lose. Through three games, NINE different WRs have topped 70 receiving yards against this defense. Plus, SIX of those nine topped 100 yards against them. Devante Parker is the clear cut #1 for Fitzpatrick, so this will be his best game to date. You can even get cute and consider starting Preston Williams and Isaiah Ford as discount punt WR3 plays.

Laviska Shenault, Jaguars @ CIN ($4400 DK, $5200 FD)
I’m not going to take anything away from running back, favorite, James Robinson, but he has a great change-of-pace replacement in Laviska Shenault. Oh yeah, he also is one of the better WRs on their team as well. The new-look Cincinnati’ secondary has actually gelled faster than I expected, but with Joe Burrow throwing the ball nearly 50 times per week, opposing offenses will throw the ball a ton too. A shootout environment can also be foreseen here since Burrow’s Bengals will be facing gunslinger Gardner Minshew. Between carries and catches, Shenault should have little trouble reaching 3x value in a poor man’s Percy Harvin sort of way.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – I find myself looking at the top prices on the TE chart and questioning how Mike Gesicki, T.J. Hockenson, Hunter Henry, and Dalton Schultz are among the ten highest-priced. Even more amazingly, those are my favorite plays this week at the position. I don’t mind Travis Kelce at a reduced price, but he still has the specter of Bill Belichick staring at him. Mark Andrews also has a ridiculously low DK price, but his hands-of-stone showing last Monday has me fearing something is amiss in the city of Baltimore.  Even Tyler Higbee has a reasonable price tag, but the Giants’ tight end coverage has been surprisingly effective this year. Gesicki and Schultz will probably be my top-two in terms of usage. I also will go to the Drew Sample well again despite his poor showing last week. Outside of that consider Jordan Akins and the Buffalo and Jacksonville TEs as potential punt fodder. Perhaps, you could even consider Ian Thomas, he is facing the Cardinals.

Fantasy Four Pack

Mark Andrews, Ravens @ WAS ($6000 DK, $7400 FD)
Yes, the drops Monday night were concerning. This is still Mark Andrews though. He has shown remarkable hands throughout his short career, so we can likely chalk up Monday to a fluke. The DK $6K price is absurdly low against Washington, but I don’t love the FD $7.4K. Coming off of a bad game, expect Lamar Jackson to pepper his favorite target early and often. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lock up a pair of scores here.

Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. NE ($6800 DK, $7600 FD)
Travis Kelce managed to put up a quality line against the tough as nails Ravens last week. He now was 85 or more receiving yards and/or a score in each game. New England does like to attempt to shut down a team’s best weapon, and they were successful in said goal against Darren Waller two weeks back. Still, Kelce has fared well against NE in the past averaging 5.7-52-0.5 over six games. Not elite trends, but certainly worth some exposure.

Tyler Higbee, Rams vs. NYG ($5700 DK, $6000 FD)
As I mentioned above, the Giants haven’t been horrible against opposing TEs. That alone raises a little worry in me. Nevertheless, the slate is a little thin up top. That elevates Tyler Higbee into a safe TE3/4 spot. Plus, the Giants stats may be slightly skewed here. They were dominant against the opposing TEs the first two weeks, but last week Jordan Reed and Ross Dwelley combined for 6-72. You don’t have to look far into recent history, last year they finished with the third-most TDs allowed to the position. I expect Los Angeles to run the ball a lot this game, but I also expect them to get Higbee back into the game script too.

Mike Gesicki, Dolphins vs. SEA ($5100 DK, $5700 FD)
Throughout this article, you’ve witnessed me bad-mouth Seattle’s pass defense repeatedly. Their TE defense doesn’t get a pass either. Their numbers look decent because their opponents have decimated them via the WR route, with nine WRs topping 70 receiving yards. When you look at the Dolphins’ offense, Mike Gesicki is no worse than their #3 option in the passing game. He has scored in back-to-back games and he went ham in Week 2 for 8-130 on 11 targets. There is a pretty clear path to targets here, and an even easier path to yardage.

DFS Sleepers

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys vs. CLE ($4300 DK, $4900 FD)
Even as the tenth-highest priced TE on DK this week, Dalton Schultz projects as a value. Cleveland finished last season allowing the second-most scores to the position. They are only fourth-worst in TDs allowed so far this season. Of course, they have also allowed the third-most receptions and tenth-highest number of receiving yards to the position through three weeks. Schultz’s numbers dipped from Week 2 to Week 3 as Cedrick Wilson stole the spotlight inside. I expect his numbers to trend back up here.

Drew Sample, Bengals vs. JAX ($3500 DK, $4700 FD)
Yes, I am going back to the small Drew Sample size play again. It burnt me badly last week, but I still have confidence in the young Bengal. Jacksonville has given up the fifth-most yardage and fourth-most TDs to the position, so opportunities should be there. Cincy wasn’t able to use their TEs last week, as they had to stay in and block to try and keep Joe Burrow upright. It didn’t work, Burrow was still planted eight times. Jacksonville’s pass rush is nowhere near as scary as Philly’s. They have exactly one sack in each of the first three games.

[lawrence-newsletter]

Wow, the carnage that was Week 2. If you sustained two or fewer injuries consider it a victory. Once again, I proved myself the original and true TE whisperer, but injuries to Davante Adams and every bell-cow RB in the league cost me the big payday. Fortunately with DFS, If you fall off your horse, you can immediately get back up again the following week.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Sunday we get a battle of two grizzled veteran QBs each trending a different direction in their careers. Last Monday, Drew Brees looked like he should have retired this offseason. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers has looked like he is looking to serve to Green Bay management his foul thoughts about their drafting of Jordan Love. Brees is at home (Not that home-field advantage means much in the time of CoVid), so maybe he won’t be as atrocious as he was this past week.  Rodgers may be without his top weapon, Davante Adams, but he has played like he has a lot left to give. Still, with the consensus top-two fantasy QBs facing off on Sunday Night, Aaron and Drew will be looking at QB3 and QB4 at best. Aaron Jones has been dominant in both the passing and running game. He is actually starting to remind me of Alvin Kamara. Kamara dominated the touches for New Orleans last week with Michael Thomas out. Thomas should remain out, leaving Kamara and Jones your consensus RB1 and RB2. I could also see using Latavius Murray at FLEX if you decide to spend up at WR. Even if Davante Adams plays, a hamstring will likely slow him down. If that wasn’t enough he would also have to deal with Marshon Lattimore. Despite the quality QBs on this docket, the WR matchups aren’t great. I doubt I would use Adams much, if at all unless he has a full practice before Friday. If he is given a clean bill of health, I might use him as a pivot WR1. I actually wish he would take a week off to be fully repaired for their Week 4 contest. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard are both legit WR2 options, and I would be happy to use either.

Emmanuel Sanders was handed the keys to a Ferrari last week and left the lot with a Yugo. It will be hard to trust him here, although he cannot possibly be targeted less. I guess you could use him at WR3, but I don’t love the matchup. Tre’Quan Smith was the actual WR-beneficiary of Thomas’ absence. He needs to be on your short-list for WR3. Deonte Harris looks like a future star in the league, but his time isn’t yet. I’m not going to dig that deep except in Showdown formats. At TE, Robert Tonyan or Marcedes Lewis could do 1/3 of the damage Darren Waller did and make themselves relevant at a cheap price. Still, they are TE5 and TE7 at best. Jared Cook was also inexcusably not used on MNF. That will need to change in this game. He will still be TE3 behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, but the price difference may make the slide worth it. He also could be a useful FLEX, if you don’t use three RBs. On paper, the Saints’ defense is better than the Packers. They didn’t look the role last week, but the whole team was Vegas-drunk on the field. At home, I would list them at DEF1. The Packers get the defacto DEF2 spot, but I almost feel safer playing them than New Orleans.

Monday, Baltimore hosts Kansas City in a battle between the young phenoms, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Both teams have electric offenses that can score from anywhere, but the Baltimore defense is far more proven than that of KC. Still, Mahomes has averaged 376-2.5 against this defense in two career starts. I’ll slot him in at QB2, but Jackson (despite lesser numbers against KC in their two meetings) gets the QB1 slot thanks to his rushing ability. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the RB3 on this slate in a tough matchup. I still am tempted to use him at FLEX alongside both Jones and Kamara. We got a strange RB usage collection from Baltimore last week. J.K. Dobbins is clearly the most talented, but he played third-fiddle to both Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards. At this point, we need to ignore this backfield until Dobbins ascends to the rightful position on top. None is worthy of anything more than a FLEX slot. Tyreek Hill went off versus Baltimore last season, a sign that even an elite defense cannot contain Hill. He is the easy WR1 on this slate. Sammy Watkins did what we all expected and turned back into a pumpkin Week 2. Even if he was 100% healthy, I refuse to start him outside of Week 1. Demarcus Robinson is the safer play this week and he is worthy of WR3 consideration (especially if Watkins doesn’t suit up). Mecole Hardman also can be considered at WR3 if Watkins sits out.

Targets and yardage were pretty well split between Hollywood Brown, Miles Boykin, and Willie Snead last week. In Week 1, Brown was the clear alpha male in terms of yardage and Snead scored the touchdown. Brown remains a WR2 option here and Snead and Boykin can each be considered at WR3 or FLEX. KC had some difficulty covering Keenan Allen across the middle of the field last week, this could suggest Snead is the best option here working out of the slot. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are your TE1 and TE2 respectively. Start either of them, if you can afford them. Heck, I wouldn’t give you flack for starting both of them and benching one of the top-three RBs.  On talent alone, Baltimore has the best defense on the slate. Unfortunately, Mahomes has already proven that he can beat them. If they are your defense, don’t drop them in season long, just highly consider benching them for a week. I’ll leave them benched in DFS as well. The Chiefs defense has outperformed their talent level so far. Still, I will pass on using them here as anything other than a pivot.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $7.3K for either Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott. $7.8K for Derrick Henry. $6.4K for Miles Sanders. $6.5K for D.K Metcalf. $5.4K for CeeDee Lamb. $3.9K for Adam Humphries (assuming A.J. Brown is out), otherwise $4K for Michael Pittman. $3.5K for Drew Sample. $5K for Joshua Kelley at FLEX. $3.7K for the Buccaneers’ defense.

At FD: $8.5K for Prescott. $8.2K for Henry. $7.4K for Sanders. $8K for Calvin Ridley. $6.5K for Metcalf. $5.6K for Lamb. $4.9K for Sample or Dalton Schultz. $5.9K for Kelley at FLEX. $4.8K for the Colts’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Prescott, Kyler Murray at SF, Henry, Sanders, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Corey Davis, Sample, and Kelley at FLEX.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – The Dallas-Seattle contest is the easy target here. I fully expect to choose either Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson for most of my lineups. Kyler Murray is my pivot. I don’t love any of the middle tier QBs. Philip Rivers has a good matchup, but it  feels like a low scoring game. Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Joe Burrow, and Ben Roethlisberger have the most upside. The only punt option I will even consider is Nick Mullens.

Fantasy Four Pack

Russell Wilson, Seahawks vs DAL ($7300 DK, $8700 FD)
What’s not to like? Through the first two weeks Russell Wilson has nearly as many touchdowns as incompletions. Dallas’ secondary is middle of the pack at best, and this projects to be a shootout.

Dak Prescott, Cowboys @ SEA ($7200 DK, $8500 FD)
No team has allowed more passing yards this year than the Seahawks. Plus, they have given up two QB rushing scores. This game has the highest over currently, and I expect it to be obliterated. Each QB should top 350 total yards and each will account for at least three total TDs.  I firmly expect Russell to be the leader in ownership, so Dak might be the wiser play here.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals vs. DET ($6800 DK, $8400 FD)
Detroit is still without their top two cornerbacks, but rookie Jeff Okudah is back (although it seems he doesn’t have his own coaches’ support). Kyler Murray is doing his best Lamar Jackson impersonation, throwing for a TD in each game, plus adding three on the ground. He is also averaging 79 rushing yards per game. This week Murray is the sneaky pivot play, if you want to be contrarian against the DAL-SEA game. He is the only QB on this slate with any chance of besting their point totals.

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers vs. HOU ($6400 DK, $7500 FD)
Ben Roethlisberger at home is always a playable option. Especially, with the development of Diontae Johnson as a legit WR2 in that offense. Houston has faced Patrick Mahomes followed by Lamar Jackson, so they may be spent coming into this game. Or worse yet, they may underestimate the Steelers’ offense after facing those two dynamos. I’m not going to predict 300-3 here, but 275-2 is a lock. In an otherwise weak QB room this week, that puts Big Ben in play.

DFS Sleepers

Philip Rivers, Colts vs. NYJ ($6000 DK, $7000 FD)
Philip Rivers underperformed last week, but it wasn’t really his fault. Indianapolis didn’t have to throw the ball much as Jonathan Taylor was eating. The Jets rushing defense is not as good as I gave them credit for  last week. That said, their passing defense is still worse. That FD price is slightly off-putting, but I could see throwing out a couple DK lineups. He also makes a nice SF play on FB.

Ryan Tannehill, Titans @ MIN ($5900 DK, $7400 FD)
Much like Philip Rivers last week, Ryan Tannehill may not need to throw the ball a ton here. Still, if he does the matchup is juicy as Minnesota cannot cover anyone. Tannehill has stolen all of the TD thunder this year from Derrick Henry. That will change this week, but I still see Tannehill throwing for 275-2. In case things go pear-shaped for Henry in this game, Tannehill should be able to pick up the slack. So don’t be afraid to do a Tannehill-Davis/Humphries-Jonnu stack and pray that Henry is once again held out of the end zone.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – The top of the price chart looks very different without Christian McCaffrey and Saquan Barkley. In these odd days, I find myself looking at this chart and thinking there is very little reason to not roster Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor on every lineup. Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook aren’t horrible as pivots, but I expect to have a lot of other exposure to the DAL-SEA game, and the Vikings’ O-Line is highly concerning. I especially do not like the fact that both Cook and Zeke, as well as Josh Jacobs, are more expensive than Henry on FD. If I do pivot, the easier choices would be Austin Ekeler or Miles Sanders. Considering the price difference, and the likely high-ownership level for Henry, Sanders is the clear contrarian play. In the mid-tier, there are three names that jump out with good matchups: James White, Melvin Gordon, and Mike Davis. I doubt I will have much exposure to any of them outside of FLEX. The one mid-priced RB that I will have massive exposure to is Joshua Kelley. Considering the matchup and the price, it would behoove you to pencil in Kelley in every FLEX slot. Heck, I may even put him into RB2, if I want to spend up at WR. If you don’t use Kelley at FLEX, please roster Ekeler at RB2. The punt options I may have some interest in include: Devin Singletary, the 49ers pairing, Antonio Gibson, and Tarik Cohen.

Fantasy Four Pack

Derrick Henry, Titans @ MIN ($7800 DK, $8200 FD)
Amazingly, Derrick Henry has not scored a TD yet this year. That will change on the Titans’ first drive of this game. Minnesota is currently playing with only one returning starting defensive lineman from last year and without one of their top-two linebackers. One week after Aaron Jones destroyed this run defense’s will to live, Jonathan Taylor piled it on flattening them like a steamroller. Derrick Henry is a battering ram not unlike Taylor and Jones, so I expect similar outcomes. As long as Ryan Tannehill doesn’t hog all of the scoring opportunities, this legitimately could be one of those slate-busting 225-3 type of games for Henry. He will have near 100% ownership, so bear that in mind if you want to be contrarian. Still, do you want to be on the outside looking in if he does go off? If I do skip Henry, I would use Miles Sanders or Austin Ekeler and pray against the chalk.

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys @ SEA ($8300 DK, $9000 FD)
We already know that this will be a high-scoring game. This could possibly hurt Ezekiel Elliott if he doesn’t get the carries he normally does. He will still get a healthy dose of runs and a fair amount of catches out of the backfield too, so don’t completely ignore him. That said, I am going to have immense exposure to both passing attacks in this game. In these situations, you need to be careful not to be over-exposed to one game. With lesser prices assigned to both Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor, this seems like the easy fade in the DAL-SEA game. If you are dead-set on playing Zeke this week, may I suggest fading the rest of that game, and then loading up on Chargers and Titans.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts vs. NYJ ($7000 DK, $6700 FD)
I gave the Jets’ run defense way too much credit going into Week 2. Jerick McKinnon and Raheem Mostert had their way with this group. Now, New York gets to face an even tougher challenge in Jonathan Taylor and the Colts’ offensive line. Without Marlon Mack, Taylor lodged 26 carries against the Vikings. Jordan Wilkins served as the change of pace option last week, and Nyheim Hines barely saw the field. That was a bit puzzling. I firmly expect Hines to return to his pass-catching role as the season progresses. That said, there isn’t going to be a need for that in this game as the Colts will lead throughout. That means another healthy carry load for Taylor.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers vs. CAR ($6800 DK, $7500 FD)
Carolina is officially the RB whipping boy for 2020. On the year, they are allowing an average of 185 total yards, three TDs, and 9.5 receptions to opposing backs. At this point, you can start both Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley without a problem. Ekeler is a great pivot from the top-dollar guys this week. His numbers will only be limited by Kelley’s activity. I still see each of them posting well over 100 total yards and each will score at least once.

DFS Sleepers

Joshua Kelley, Chargers vs. CAR ($5000 DK, $5900 FD)
As much as I love Austin Ekeler at his price, I love Joshua Kelley even more so at his price. One of the two must be in your lineup, and if you want to roll both of them, I wouldn’t blame you. As I mentioned just above, they will both go ham this week. The biggest question mark is, will they each score twice, or will one of them score only once?

James White, Patriots vs. LVR ($5300 DK, $5300 FD)
James White suffered a personal tragedy last weekend when his father was killed and his mother was critically injured in a car accident. No one should ever be subjected to that sort of horror. I can’t even fathom what must have been going through his mind. As of Wednesday, White hadn’t returned to practice. So, you will need to watch the reports this Friday to see if he will be back this week. If he returns, the matchup is sweet against a Raiders’ run defense that has given up four rushing TDs, the league-high in RB receiving yards, and the league fourth-high in running back receptions. If he sits out this week (and I would fully understand if he did), the other value play RB is Mike Davis taking over the CMAC role on the road in Los Angeles. My concern here is that he will be over-owned.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy –  There are a lot of good but not great options up top this week. DeAndre Hopkins is the only sure thing, but his price is appropriately high. If you wish to spend lower at RB, you can probably utilize Hopkins. As for me, I will join the huddled masses and go all-in on the DAL-SEA game. DK Metcalf and Amari Cooper are primed for huge performances. That said, they will also have high ownership. Using Tyler Lockett and/or Michael Gallup instead of Metcalf and/or Cooper might be the slier option. If you choose to use Big Ben, make sure to pair him with JuJu Smith-Schuster up top or Diontae Johnson for less (assuming he plays). Several people may scroll down and see Allen Robinson versus Atlanta. Do you really trust Mitchell Trubisky to have another decent performance? Show me don’t tell me. At WR2, I could also see you using Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb (if you don’t use Gallup or Cooper), Corey Davis, DeSean Jackson, or Russell Gage. You could also use any of them at WR3. Punt options that I like this week are Darius Slayton, the Cardinals’ backups, Adam Humphries, Greg Ward, and Braxton Berrios. That said, Humphries is the only one from that list that I will have significant exposure to (and then only if A.J. Brown misses the game).

Fantasy Four Pack

DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals vs DET ($7900 DK, $8500 FD)
DeAndre Hopkins gets his turn against the depleted Lions’ secondary. Davante Adams left the game early last week with an injury. That was the only thing that kept him from a great game. Marquez Valdes-Scantling stepped in and the two combined for 100 yards. With so much exposure to the DAL-SEA passing game, Hopkins might make a sneaky pivot. The negative is that Hopkins costs more. Still, if you choose to use Kyler Murray, you really need to use his top option in the receiving game. If you don’t use Hopkins consider using Larry Fitzgerald or Christian Kirk at WR3.

Calvin Ridley, Falcons vs. CHI ($7200 DK, $8000 FD)
Take nothing away from the Chicago pass defense. They can stifle some of the best. This is simply a case of Calvin Ridley emerging as one of the best of the best. Through two weeks, Ridley leads the league in receiving TDs and he is tied for the most receiving yards. I’m torn as to what effect an absent Julio Jones would have on this game. With Jones on the field (even as a decoy), Ridley will receive lesser coverage. However, if Jones is limited or a no-go, Ridley may see even more targets thrown his way. Either way, you can count on 8-125-1 from Ridley as a floor. This is another situation where if you don’t use the big dollar option, consider using Russell Gage at WR3.

DK Metcalf, Seahawks vs. DAL ($6500 DK, $6500 FD)
Speaking of breakout performances, DK Metcalf served the world notice by making Stephon Gilmore look like an every day ham-and-egger. Dallas does not have anyone that I believe can cover this chiseled beast. We are looking at a shootout in this contest, so anything less than 8-100-1 would seem a failure.

Amari Cooper, Cowboys @ SEA ($6500 DK, $7000 FD)
If this game is going to devolve into a shootout, I want as much exposure as possible. Amari Cooper trails only DeAndre Hopkins among all WR in targets. That trend will likely continue this week. I should clarify that I like all three of Dallas’ WRs as legit plays this week. Amongst them, Cooper may have the lowest ownership since he is the most expensive of the three. He also will likely have lower ownership than Metcalf, who is coming off the breakout game. The easy solution, give me Cooper and Metcalf and sprinkle in something cheaper at WR3. Cooper hasn’t scored yet this year, that changes this week.

DFS Sleepers

Corey Davis, Titans @ MIN ($5200 DK, $5300 FD)
A.J. Brown may not go this weekend. It shouldn’t matter since he won’t be needed for Tennessee to win this game. Minnesota’s secondary was already young and inexperienced. Now, they will likely be without the two best of the inexperienced guys. Corey Davis didn’t have the large output of yardage he had in Week 1, but he scored in Week 2. This week, he accomplishes both.

Russell Gage, Falcons vs. CHI ($5100 DK, $5600 FD)
If I told you after two weeks that two Falcons’ WRs were among the top-ten in targets, you would have guessed it was Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. In reality, Russell Gage has more targets than Julio who was slowed down last week by an injury. Now it appears that Julio is questionable at best for this weekend. If he cannot go, that will undoubtedly increase the target share for Gage. His price is considerably cheaper than Ridley and there is no chance that he will face the Bears’ top cover cornerback. If you don’t roll him out this week, when will you?

Tight End

Weekly strategy – So many bargains at the TE position this week. Even the expensive options aren’t that expensive. I’m a little concerned about George Kittle coming back too early from injury and I’m also concerned about Bill Belichick trying to shut down Darren Waller. Outside of that, start any of these guys. Jonnu Smith is the popular new-guy who will have huge ownership against the rotten Vikings’ defense. Tyler Higbee is the young star coming off the three-score game. Then there is Zach Ertz, the veteran with the team with no WRs facing a questionable secondary. Let us not forget, Evan Engram, who gets to absorb both Sterling Shepard and Saquan Barkley’s targets. Not to mention, guys like Dalton Schultz and Greg Olsen in the DAL-SEA point orgy and Jordan Reed if George Kittle cannot go. This smells like one of those weeks where I could roll out the Double-TE. I especially am tempted to play Drew Sample against the same Philly defense that allowed Higbee to score three times last week.

Fantasy Four Pack

Tyler Higbee, Rams @ BUF ($5900 DK, $6100 FD)
I am concerned a little about the Rams traveling east for an early game. That said, my concern falls more on Cooper Kupp and especially Robert Woods since they also must face the Bills’ tough cornerbacks. In the first two weeks, Buffalo did fumble some at covering TEs. Chris Herndon and Mike Gesicki combined to post 14-167-1 against them. I’d argue that Higbee is better than either of them. If Jared Goff struggles to find his WRs open, expect a huge game from Higbee.

Jonnu Smith, Titans @ MIN ($5200 DK, $5600 FD)
Without A.J. Brown in the lineup, Jonnu Smith led Tennessee in receiving yards last week. This week he faces another easy opponent in Minnesota. The Vikings just got done allowing 5-111 to reserve TE, Mo Alie-Cox in Week 2. Even if Brown plays, I expect Smith to top 100 yards. What remains to be seen, however, is whether he vultures one of Derrick Henry’s likely four TDs.

Zach Ertz, Eagles vs. CIN ($5100 DK, $6200 FD)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Philadelphia is short-handed at WR. Fortunately for the Eagles, they have two of the best TEs in football in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Goedert actually has more targets than Ertz through two weeks, but Ertz is the proven veteran who stepped up and led the team to finish the 2019 season. Ertz also caught five of his seven targets last week while Goedert dropped half of his. Carson Wentz will target both of them double-digit times this week, and I don’t blame you for rolling with either of them.

Darren Waller, Raiders @ NE ($5700 DK, $6600 FD)
I was down on Darren Waller this offseason. I was concerned by the sheer volume of receiving options that the team brought in. I was wrong. Waller has taken the next step. He now joins George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews in the elite TE tier. Bill Belichick has a habit of strategizing to take out an opponents’ best players, but we saw how poorly that worked on DK Metcalf last week. Waller is talented enough to best this defense, just don’t go overboard here, since there are cheaper options.

DFS Sleepers

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys @ SEA ($4400 DK, $5300 FD)
In case you need more exposure to this game, may I suggest Dalton Schultz. My namesake went off last week as he got to absorb the hype that was previously destined for Blake Jarwin. Seattle hasn’t been properly tested by a TE yet this year, but last year they allowed the second-most yardage and the third-most receptions to the position. If you decide you want a Cowboys’ receiver without spending up for Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, or Michael Gallup, consider Schultz here. He actually led the team in targets and receptions last week. Plus, there are more than enough points to go around here.

Drew Sample, Bengals @ PHI ($3500 DK, $4800 FD)
It is clear that Joe Burrow likes to target the TE position. Through two weeks, Burrow has targeted Drew Sample and C.J. Uzomah a total of 21 times. The pair has accumulated a total of 16-139-1. Now Uzomah is done for the year leaving Sample to be the primary weapon from the TE spot. He was peppered repeatedly in Week 2 following the injury and I expect more of the same here. Plus, Philadelphia just allowed three TDs to Tyler Higbee, so there is chum in the water.

[lawrence-newsletter]

So, what did we learn from Week 1? Nobody is immune to injuries. Cheap chalk replacement-level RBs cannot be trusted. Don’t tinker too much on Sunday morning (I – and my wallet – apologize to you, Davante Adams). Carolina against RBs is the new Arizona versus TEs, and nobody can lose a game quite like Detroit.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

We are back to a two-game primetime slate this week. I enjoyed the MNF doubleheader, but my standard sleep schedule approves of the return to normalcy.

On Sunday night, the Patriots set out west to Seattle. The Seahawks were just torched through the air by the Falcons, but the Patriots do not have the WR weaponry that Atlanta had. Still, with Michael Thomas all but out on Monday. You have to consider N’Keal Harry and Julian Edelman as legit WR2 options. You also have to consider Cam Newton as the possible QB1. Even more confusing is the RB position. Both New England and Seattle have muddled backfields, with very little to truly rely on. You probably have to choose at least one of the fivesome of Carlos Hyde, Chris Carson, Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, and James White. White and Carson are the most consistent in that group, so I will lean on one of them (likely in FLEX). Russell Wilson has two very good WRs to lean on, as well as his own legs. The Patriots pass defense’ is still solid, but with Thomas likely out, you have to consider Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf as the likely WR1 here by default. Greg Olsen scored in Week 1 versus Atlanta, but he is no better than TE3 on this slate. That said, I could see using him at FLEX if you don’t use one of the above RBs.  I’m not going to waste a spot on either of these defenses unless I am seeking a pivot from the obvious Saints play.

New Orleans also travels west to lock horns with the Raiders. Las Vegas showcased their offense in Week 1, but it was against the junior varsity defense of Carolina. New Orleans’ defense will humble Derek Carr and Company very fast. Carr might be QB5 on this slate behind Taysom Hill depending on contest positioning rules. Josh Jacobs is probably RB2 just because of the lack of clear talent in the Sunday night game. I don’t love him here, but volume alone makes him a safe play. Plus, Jalen Richard didn’t get utilized enough to be considered seriously here. Nelson Agholor, Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow, and Bryan Edwards are a deep collection of mediocrity. They are facing an elite secondary, and none should be thought of as more than a WR3 this week. I don’t even think I can stomach that play. Darren Waller on the other hand is an elite play and he deserves consideration at TE or FLEX. For New Orleans, Drew Brees would be the clear QB1, if Michael Thomas would play. I’m not holding my breath on that. Even without Thomas, Brees is probably QB2 here. A nearly 100% Thomas is still the WR1 on this slate. Heck, a nearly 85% Thomas is WR1 as well. If Thomas sits, Emmanuel Sanders is no worse than WR2, and he suddenly joins the Seahawks duo in WR1 consideration. In addition, Tre’quan Smith would jump into WR3 talk. Alvin Kamara was clearly not 100% in Week 1. He still scored twice and almost scored a third time. His numbers will be limited by his volume, but he should still be in RB1 or RB2 range. Latavius Murray could also be considered at RB2 or FLEX. Jared Cook joins Waller in TE1 talk and he becomes a must-start if Thomas is out. The Saints’ defense should be option 1, option 2, and option 3 at the position on this slate. Don’t get cute here.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $6.9K for Aaron Rodgers. $7.9K for Derrick Henry $4.5K for Benny Snell (if James Conner cannot go, otherwise take your pick of Josh Adams, James Robinson, one of the Washington running backs, or Miles Gaskin). $8.1K for Davante Adams. $5.2K for Anthony Miller. $4.5K for Parris Campbell. $4.2K for Jonnu Smith. $4.8K for Leonard Fournette at FLEX. $3.9K for the Bills’ defense.

At FD: $7.9K for Rodgers. $8.3K for Henry. $8K for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. $8.6K for Adams. $6K for Jamison Crowder. $5.3K for Campbell. $4.9K for Jonnu. $6K for Fournette at FLEX. $4.9K for the Bills’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo at SF, Henry, Edwards-Helaire, Adams, Julio Jones, Campbell, Jonnu, and Fournette at FLEX.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Aaron Rodgers is the easy and obvious play this week. Unfortunately, everyone knows this. If you want to seek out a pivot, consider Josh Allen or Matt Ryan. I’d also consider Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson on DK. If I decide to punt the position, Philip Rivers, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff and Ryan Tannehill would be my choices. My suicide dive this week would be trusting in Tyrod Taylor again after his first-week fiasco. He did have the green light to throw the deep ball, and he will certainly need to this week. If you are going to go down this rabbit hole, fully embrace it and stack him with either Mike Williams or Keenan Allen.

Fantasy Four Pack

Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs DET ($6900 DK, $7900 FD)
Aaron Rodgers just disassembled the Vikings’ kiddie corps cornerbacks. They get easy assignment number two this week, as Detroit will likely be without their top three cornerbacks. Rodgers is likely to be playing with a chip on his shoulder all season as the Packers wasted a high pick on his supposed heir apparent. Rodgers’ Stone Cold Salute tour continues here with an easy 350-3 for the not-nearly-washed veteran.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens @ HOU ($8200 DK, $9500 FD)
Houston’s defense isn’t as bad as it appeared against Kansas City. Still, you have to feel bad for this unit being forced to lock horns with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in the first two games of the year. Mahomes ate the Texans’ defense alive thanks in part to his depth. Lamar Jackson is surrounded by great runners, but only Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews truly strike fear in the passing game. Jackson is always a lock for 225-1 through the air and 60-1 on the ground, and that doesn’t change this week. I’m just going to dodge him on FD where the price is a bit too high.

Josh Allen, Bills @ MIA ($6700 DK, $8200 FD)
One week into the season and Miami is already flailing in their rushing defense allowing 217 yards on the ground to New England. 75 of those yards and two of the scores went to the no-longer-running QB, Cam Newton. Newton’s legs may be past their prime, but he did a number on the Dolphins. Josh Allen is a younger, healthier version of Newton, arguably with a stronger arm. Working against Allen is that John Brown is nursing a foot injury and Stefon Diggs will likely lock horns with Xavien Howard. Working in Allen’s favor is that he is coming off a huge rushing game. Considering the matchup, Allen could produce a Lamar Jackson like line for more than a thousand fewer dollars.

Matt Ryan, Falcons @ DAL ($6600 DK, $7700 FD)
Matt Ryan failed to lead his team to victory Week 1, but he did manage to rattle the digit counters for 450-2. There is no way to properly cover Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, and Hayden Hurst. The numbers will continue to bulge your eyes all season, as long as everyone remains healthy. Dallas is middle of the pack against the pass, which should be good enough to hold Ryan to 325-2. That is still an easy lock for fourth-best on this slate. Dak Prescott just missed this top-4, so feel free to use him as well. On FB, I wouldn’t blame you for double-stacking this game in SF.

DFS Sleepers

Philip Rivers, Colts vs. MIN ($5900 DK, $7100 FD)
We learned last week that Minnesota’s pass defense is not ready for primetime. We also learned that if you give Philip Rivers a professional offensive line, he can pick apart a secondary despite being slightly less mobile than the Statue of Liberty. Due to their prices, I adore the stack of Rivers with Parris Campbell. That said, I don’t have any problem with stacking him with Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, or even Jack Doyle as well.

Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers @ NYJ ($5700 DK, $7100 FD)
This recommendation is predicated on the 49ers’ receiving corps being healthy. If the team can get back Brandon Aiyuk or George Kittle this week, the Jets will have their hands full. Jimmy Garoppolo managed to throw for two TDs last week despite his top receivers being a trio of RBs and Kittle (who left halfway through the game). The Niners also added Mohamed Sanu to their receiver group earlier this week. He has familiarity with Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and he is a well-traveled veteran, so he should be able to step right in and contribute. I don’t love the FD price, but his DK price should make him a sneaky QB punt play.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – This week, I am all in on three stud RBs. Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are all super juicy based on their prices. I am going to do everything possible to fit two of that threesome in every lineup. Hell, I may even try to squeeze all three onto a roster. Austin Ekeler could be a decent pivot if you want exposure to the KC-LAC game without rolling with the rookie phenom. The middle tier offers some decent FLEX play options including Jonathan Taylor, Malcolm Brown, Nyheim Hines, J.K. Dobbins, the Bills’ RBs, and the Tampa RBs. This is the group that I am likely to choose my FLEX from. There are several decent punt options this week. I particularly like Tarik Cohen, Peyton Barber, James Robinson, Miles Gaskin, and Josh Adams. With a need to spend up here and for Davante Adams, their cheap salaries could be necessary.

Fantasy Four Pack

Derrick Henry, Titans vs JAX ($7900 DK, $8300 FD)
The Jaguars only allowed Indianapolis’ RBs to post 20-76-1 on the ground Week 1. Their big issue was that they gave up 17-142-1 to the position through the air. Unlike Indy with their three-headed backfield Week 1, Tennessee has Derrick Henry, Derrick Henry, and Derrick Henry in their backfield. It is true that he has never been a huge pass-catcher, but he isn’t a bum in that regard either. If you need more reason to get Henry into your lineup, over his last four games against Jacksonville, Henry has posted 516 total yards and seven total TDs.

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys vs. ATL ($8200 DK, $8600 FD)
Ezekiel Elliott was his usual self in Week 1, topping 125 total yards and scoring twice. This is what you expect on a week-to-week basis from Zeke, so the final line should not surprise. Still, for some reason, the DFS sites do not have his salary in the stratosphere of Christian McCaffrey. Atlanta just allowed Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde to combine for 89 total yards and three total TDs. Neither of those two is close to on par with Zeke. Another 125-2 should be Elliott’s floor here, in what I expect to be a shootout.

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers @ TB ($10000 DK, $10500 FD)
Once again Christian McCaffrey finds himself trapped in a spot where he will produce 20+ points but not return 3X value. With other lesser-priced studs in equal or better matchups, McCaffrey becomes a trap for inexperienced DFS players. Sure, you need to have some exposure to him, but know that it will put cramps onto the rest of your roster. It doesn’t help him that he is facing a Tampa team whose strength is their run defense. Alvin Kamara did have some success against this defense through the air (something that CMAC is quite familiar with). That said, Teddy Bridgewater only targeted McCaffrey three times in Week 1. Plus, once again, Bridgewater only threw for one touchdown (a problematic trend he has had his whole career). Last year, McCaffrey posted 110 total yards and two scores against Tampa. That sounds about right for one game by CMAC, the issue is that was his TWO-GAME total.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs @ LAC ($7400 DK, $8000 FD)
Fresh off of breaking the opening night Showdown slate, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is going to be a very popular play at RB1 this week. The biggest issue I have is that CEH was not used at all in the passing game. I would’ve guessed by default he would have received one target, but nope. I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that he doesn’t get 25 carries again, but I also have to assume he gets a couple passes thrown his way. Ultimately, it should balance out to something around 125 total yards and a score. The rub that may help Helaire outperform this projection is that the Chargers are elite against the pass. This includes giving Patrick Mahomes fits over his last three starts against them. If Mahomes struggles with Los Angeles’ pass defense again, the Chiefs may have to give Helaire another 25 carries.

DFS Sleepers

Jonathan Taylor, Colts vs. MIN ($5700 DK, $5800 FD)
Jonathan Taylor didn’t finish with many yards on the ground last week, but both he and Nyheim Hines had huge games through the air. With Marlon Mack out of the picture, Taylor will gain all of the work on 1st and 2nd downs, and he doesn’t have to be replaced on 3rd down. Hines will still get some love, and I like both of them this week. Minnesota lost it’s top run stuffer from last year. They then watched his replacement opt-out due to CoVid. Plus, they will also be without two of their other primary defensive linemen from last year. Taylor will be a popular play at RB2 or FLEX, if you want to go against the grain, roll with Nyheim instead. If you are really ballsy, play them both.

Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers vs. CAR ($4800 DK, $6000 FD)
Speaking of two-headed sleeper operations, Leonard Fournette was not added by Tampa to play second-fiddle to Ronald Jones. Fournette will eventually be the featured back here. That “eventually” begins this week. Carolina used to have an elite linebacker corps and they used to be feared by opposing backs. Nowadays, they consider it a victory when they hold opposing backs under 250 total yards and three touchdowns. Much like Hines, Jones will post a juicy line here also. That said, Fournette (even without trying) will top 100 yards and score at least once.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – I cost myself roughly a thousand dollars Sunday morning by tinkering and subbing in Michael Thomas for Davante Adams in my best lineup of the week. Yes, it happens to everyone. Fortunately, Davante is in a class by himself this week. It would be a horrible mistake to not roster him. The only tinkerable offense that I could commit this week, would be to sub in DeAndre Hopkins. I really don’t want to spend down at RB, so I won’t be finagling to get both of them on a roster. The only other high-priced WRs that I might consider using at WR1/WR2 are JuJu Smith-Schuster and Calvin Ridley.  The middle tier is loaded with potential, but no one jumps out. This looks like one of those weeks where after WR1, I may spend just under $10K on DK and $12K on FD to roster my WR2 and WR3. Some of the better choices include T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, Marvin Jones, Anthony Miller, Darius Slayton, CeeDee Lamb, and my three favorites: Jamison Crowder, Mike Williams, and Parris Campbell. If you choose to punt WR2 and WR3 even further, you can find deals like Cole Beasley, Keelan Cole, James Washington, Adam Humphries, Scotty Miller, and Quintez Cephus (if Golladay doesn’t play).

Fantasy Four Pack

Davante Adams, Packers vs DET ($8100 DK, $8600 FD)
14-156-2 on 17 targets. I’ll remember those stats for awhile. Why did I allow myself to tinker? Of course, no one could’ve foreseen Michael Thomas going down with an injury. I’ll just keep telling myself that. Davante Adams’ price is still too low based on what he projects for this week. Detroit will likely be without their three best cornerbacks. This is not optimal when you are about to face Aaron Rodgers. All of Rodgers’ weapons are in play as potential bargains, but considering Adams’ target hoarding, he is a mortal lock. I am already penciling him in for 12-135-2.

DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals vs. WAS ($7700 DK, $8300 FD)
My humble pie tour continues here, as I was down on DeAndre Hopkins last week against the Niners. I really wanted to see what his usage would be. Plus, it was San Fran and their defense was supposed to be elite. Needless to say, Hopkins balled out in his first game in this new offense. 16 targets might not be replicable from week to week, but double-digit targets should be the norm for Nuk. Washington has a great D-line, but Kyler Murray has the legs to make plays on the run. With Hopkins’ hands being beyond reliable, I expect him to be peppered this week. If you are unable to or unwilling to roster Adams, please consider Hopkins here. He will finish with a floor of 10-120-1.

Julio Jones, Falcons @ DAL ($7400 DK, $8200 FD)
No-score Julio Jones returned last week, but no one will be angry about a 9-157 line from their top WR option. The TD would’ve been a nice cherry on top, but Matt Ryan was redistributing the wealth between Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage. We could easily see a repeat performance this week, with all three topping 100 receiving yards. Considering their prices, Gage and Ridley are more likely to hit 3X value, but Jones has the safest floor.

Adam Thielen, Vikings @ IND ($7200 DK, $7300 FD)
The Indianapolis Colts inherited former Vikings’ cornerback, Xavier Rhodes this offseason. It wasn’t an upgrade. Rhodes has been trending downward each of the last three years. Last week, the Colts’ secondary allowed touchdowns to three of the top four WRs on Jacksonville. When you look at the Vikings’ depth chart at WR, it reads Adam Thielen, Adam Thielen, Adam Thielen, Olabisi Johnson, and Justin Jefferson. Thielen finished with more than half of Kirk Cousins’ WR targets. He also topped 100 yards and scored twice (despite being the only true threat outside, and despite facing a very good CB for the Packers). Minnesota’s secondary is equally suspect, so this game should devolve into a shootout. Load up appropriately.

DFS Sleepers

Cole Beasley, Bills @ MIA ($4700 DK, $5400 FD)
John Brown is questionable with a bum foot. Stefon Diggs will likely be shadowed by Xavien Howard (assuming he is good to go). This will leave an opening for Cole Beasley to get a bump from his seven Week 1 targets. Beasley finished 2019 with touchdowns and/or 100 yards receiving in seven of his last eleven games. This was obviously pre-Diggs. That said if Diggs is there, but Brown isn’t, those numbers could repeat themselves.

Parris Campbell, Colts vs. MIN ($4500 DK, $5300 FD)
Parris Campbell rewarded his offseason suitors by tying with T.Y. Hilton for a team-high nine targets in Week 1. Campbell did more with his targets than Hilton did, and it appears we may have a changing of the guard up top for Indy. Minnesota couldn’t stop anyone through the air last week as Aaron Rodgers picked them apart. Philip Rivers is less mobile than Rodgers, but he also has the best offensive line he has ever had in front of him. This game has the makings of a shootout, so getting cheap exposure to it is wise.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Mark Andrews is the only truly elite play up top. Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and Evan Engram deserve some rub, but I’m going cheap here this week. Last week’s MNF matchup of Jonnu Smith and Noah Fant gave us a peek into the future of the top tier of TEs. Each looked phenomenal. They will be my top two options this week since their price is more in alignment with my free-spending ways at RB and WR. I don’t mind Hayden Hurst, Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki, or Eric Ebron as a pivot play in the same price range. There are also several deep punt values that may encourage me to go double-TE and squeeze both Adams and Hopkins along with Zeke and Henry. Feel free to consider Dalton Schultz, Dawson Knox, Jack Doyle, Logan Thomas (my favorite punt of the week), and Ian Thomas. I particularly love this fivesome on DK where their price is very low.

Fantasy Four Pack

Mark Andrews, Ravens @ HOU ($6300 DK, $7500 FD)
Houston is (much like last year) a decent but not great team against TEs. Travis Kelce was left wide open on multiple occasions last week, including in the red zone. That strategy didn’t work very well. Lamar Jackson doesn’t have the dearth of weapons that Patrick Mahomes has, but he has his favorite binky, Mark Andrews. Andrews tied with Hollywood Brown for the team lead in targets and receptions, but the tight end hauled in two scores while Brown was held out of the end zone. Unless Houston changes their gameplan significantly, Andrews should finish with a floor of 6-80-1.

Jonnu Smith, Titans vs. JAX ($4200 DK, $4900 FD)
Yes, I have Jonnu Smith ranked above Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Kittle would be above him if we knew he would play, but Jonnu has arrived and he isn’t going anywhere but up. In Week 1, the Colts’ TEs combined for 5-69. That should be Smith’s floor this week as long as he continues to see a healthy dose of targets. Jacksonville also gave up a ton of receptions to Indy’s RBs out of the backfield. Derrick Henry isn’t known as a huge pass catcher, so some of those looks might go to Smith lined up from an H-Back position.

George Kittle, 49ers @ NYJ ($6700 DK, $7400 FD)
George Kittle remains questionable as of the publication of this article. That said, Kittle is a tough SOB and if anyone can play through his injury, it is him. The Niners will likely get Brandon Aiyuk back this week as well which should throw Kittle some shade in coverage. Not that he will need any against a Jets’ secondary that just isn’t very good. The Jets’ run defense is actually pretty decent, so I expect the Niners to lean more on the pass than the run this week. If Kittle plays the full game he should finish with 8-80-1. Even limited he should top 5-50. Watch as we get closer to Sunday because you hate to spend this much on a questionable guy, especially with some incredible bargains at the position this week.

Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ LAC ($7000 DK, $7800 FD)
One of the spots in the Chargers’ secondary you can attack successfully is with your TEs. Last year, they were middle of the pack against the position, and last week, they allowed C.J. Uzomah to go for 4-45. Travis Kelce is considerably more talented than Uzomah, and Andy Reid does a great job of game-planning to exploit his opponent’s biggest weakness. Throwing outside versus the Chargers’ cornerbacks isn’t normally a winning strategy (although Tyreek Hill has been serviceable against them in the past). A big worry I have here is that Kelce has only scored twice in twelve career games versus LA. You are still gonna be happy with your 6-60 floor, but without a guaranteed score, I abhor paying this much.

DFS Sleepers

Noah Fant, Broncos @ PIT ($4400 DK, $5300 FD)
Noah Fant joined Jonnu Smith in busting out on MNF. This week he faces a much stiffer challenge in Pittsburgh. Still, if Courtland Sutton misses another game, Fant will likely repeat his role as the number two receiving option for Drew Lock. I’m not going to predict another 5-81-1, but 4-60-1 is certainly in play. Last season, Pittsburgh was beatable by TEs. Only two teams allowed more tight end TDs. Fant may also be under-owned, as teams use Jonnu for right around the same dollar amount in a perceived better game script. This will make him a nice pivot.

Logan Thomas, Football Team @ ARI ($3600 DK, $4700 FD)
Yes, Arizona improved their coverage against tight ends this offseason. That said, an improvement from historically bad to slightly below average isn’t exactly a confidence builder. They still allowed a gimpy George Kittle and the undead corpse of Jordan Reed to post 6-56 against them. Meanwhile, Dwayne Haskins targeted Logan Thomas a team-high eight times in their upset of the Eagles. They say don’t mess with what is working for you, so I expect Ron Rivera to continue to utilize Thomas frequently. I mean, It isn’t as if they have a lot of weapons in their passing game to rely upon anyway.

[lawrence-newsletter]

Well, we are finally back. This has been one heck of a year, right? I never thought that our country would come to a point where people were actually questioning if we would, or could, have a football season. Personally, I never doubted the collective spirit of our sports-loving fans and the undiluted competitiveness of these fine athletes to tread forward. Fortunately, we do have football — and fantasy football — now to distract us.

Even more, fortunately, we also have been blessed with the opportunity to personally profit from identifying and selecting the best performers among these superstars.

For those new to the Dominator, every week we identify all of the players on DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD) that are likely to be rostered. We then assign a grade to each of those players representing their presumed performance. Players rated to achieve 3X their value or more, (30+ points for $10K salary) will be shaded in GREEN. Players rated to achieve between 2X and 3X their value (20-29 points for $10K salary) will be shaded BLACK. Players rated to finish with less than 2X value (less than 20 points for $10K salary) will be shaded RED.

We also give you The Fantasy Four-pack, a breakdown of the top four performers at each position regardless of their salary. So you know which guys are the safest to construct your roster around.  In addition, we provide our top-two Sleepers at each position, This will help you fit your roster under the league salary caps.

If that wasn’t enough, I also give you my favorite GPP lineup for both DK and FD, along with my top lineup for Fanball (FB). Heck, I even give you a comprehensive break down of the Primetime slate games which are not part of the main “Millionaire” slates.

Just follow these simple steps:

1. Read the Dominator
2. Enter your lineups
3. Follow me @NewClearHarley on Twitter for Sunday morning updates and additional sleepers
4. Profit

DFS: The Primetime Slate

We have three games on the evening docket this week thanks to a MNF doubleheader. On Sunday, Dallas travels to Los Angeles to take on the Rams. Both these teams can score some points, and with better defenses showing up in both MNF games, I expect to have a lot of exposure here. The biggest issue here is, who is going to be doing all of the scoring? There are too many weapons in the Dallas passing game now, plus they still have Ezekiel Elliott. St. Louis has a three-headed monster in their backfield, effectively negating the value of each of them. They also tend to be more pass-happy. I don’t love any of the QBs on Monday (except as a money-saving option), so I would recommend choosing either Dak Prescott or Jared Goff here. Goff will be cheaper, making him my preference. I want nothing to do with the RB mess in Los Angeles until things shake out. As for Zeke, you have three elite RBs to choose from on this slate. You won’t be able to afford all three, but choose two of them. Both of these teams were tough on opposing WRs last year, but Dallas was a hair better. I can see rostering one of Cee Dee Lamb or Michael Gallup at WR2, or Josh Reynolds at WR3. I doubt I will be able to afford Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, or Cooper Kupp. I like Blake Jarwin as a sleeper for the year, but not this week. That said, Tyler Higbee is super juicy against a Dallas team that allowed more TE receptions than any other team last year. Don’t waste your time on either of these defenses.

The Giants host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the early MNF game. The G-Men were easily the worst team on this slate against the pass last year, but Ben Roethlisberger has always performed better at home than on the road, and he is coming off a major injury. If his price remains low enough, I will have to have some exposure to him. Still, I won’t love it. This means that each of the Steelers’ passing game weapons is in play. I love JuJu Smith-Schuster this week, and he should be in all of our lineups at WR1. If you want some differentiation from the chalk, use James Washington or Diontae Johnson at WR3 instead. I even like using Eric Ebron at TE, if you don’t pay up for Higbee. James Conner is possible at RB2 or FLEX, but I wouldn’t overpay for him. Keep all of your Giants on the bench except for maybe Saquan Barkley. Even then, I’d rather have the pairing of Zeke and Derrick Henry. If I need to squeeze a WR3 in, I might consider Sterling Shepard. I don’t want any part of Daniel Jones, Golden Tate, Evan Engram, or Darius Slayton against this stud-laden defense. Speaking of defenses, just choose Pittsburgh and lock it and forget it.

The late MNF game is Tennessee traveling west to face the Broncos. Ryan Tannehill is about as boring as they come at QB. He is still the fourth-best option on this slate. Just don’t expect more than 250-2 from him in any game this year. Derrick Henry needs serious consideration at RB1 or RB2. He is the second-best option on this slate. I don’t love A.J. Brown based on his price point, and I will never use Corey Davis as anything other than the butt of my jokes. If I had to go with a WR on this offense, I’d choose Adam Humphries or Kalif Raymond as WR3/FLEX. Jonnu Smith is also a nice option as a punt TE or at FLEX. Denver was effective at keeping TEs out of the end zone, but they did give up a ton of receptions and yards to the position. As for the Broncos, I like Drew Lock’s potential, but I am not going there yet. I also am hesitant to trust either Melvin Gordon or Philip Lindsay until we see their usage. I might choose Gordon at FLEX, but I am not trusting either of them at one of the top two RB slots. Courtland Sutton will likely be more expensive than I want, so I will fade him. On the other hand, Jerry Jeudy could have some interest to me at WR3. Tennessee could be picked on by TEs last year, so Noah Fant is definitely in play at the position, or as a discount FLEX. The Broncos’ defense is nearly as good as Pittsburgh. So, if you want to avoid the defense chalk, go with Denver instead.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $6.8K for Drew Brees. $6.8K for Josh Jacobs. $4.9K for Tarik Cohen. $7.3K for Davante Adams. $5.8K for T.Y. Hilton $4.9K for DeSean Jackson. $6K for Mark Andrews. $4.5K or less for one of Chris Thompson, Preston Williams, Antonio Gibson, or Jack Doyle at FLEX. $3K for the Colts’ defense.

At FD: $8.4K for Russell Wilson. $10K for Christian McCaffrey. $5.4K for Jonathan Taylor. $8.8K for Michael Thomas. No more than $6.5K for WR2 (leaning T.Y. Hilton). $5.7K for DeSean Jackson. $5.3K for Jack Doyle or Hayden Hurst (if you go T.Y. at WR). $5.3 for James White at FLEX. $4.7K for the Bills’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Lamar Jackson, Drew Brees at SF, Josh Jacobs, James White, Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, DeSean Jackson, Tyler Higbee, and Chris Thompson at FLEX.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – I have no issue with any of the top four QBs this week. Drew Brees has a history of lighting it up at home. Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan should be tangled in an offensive shootout. Then there is Lamar Jackson versus the Browns, which just isn’t fair. Jackson’s salary is high, making him a tough play on DK. Nevertheless, with the extra cap space, I can see using him more frequently on FD and FB. With most prices actually close to on point for Week 1, I don’t love any of the cheaper options. I could see using Tyrod Taylor, Philip Rivers, or Ryan Fitzpatrick. However, none of them inspires a ton of confidence. If you do choose Brees or Jackson, make sure to stack them with Michael Thomas and Mark Andrews respectively.

Fantasy Four Pack

Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs CLE ($8100 DK, $9400 FD)
Lamar Jackson failed to top 250 passing yards against the Browns in either contest last season. That said, he did throw for three TDs in each game and he ran for 169 total yards on the ground. I expect the passing yards get a slight bump here, while the rushing yards slide down slightly. He is also guaranteed at least three total scores.

Drew Brees, Saints vs TB ($6800 DK, $8100 FD)
Sure, Tampa Bay has Tom Brady now; that doesn’t help their passing defense any. No team gave up more passing yards, and only two franchises allowed more passing scores. The Bucs did add Antoine Winfield to their secondary, but that is like putting a band-aid on a severed carotid. Drew Brees has averaged 327-3 over 13 home games the last two years, and that was without a legitimate second WR. That should be his floor this week.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks @ ATL ($7000 DK, $8400 FD)
Only eight teams allowed more passing TDs per game last year than Atlanta. The Falcons addressed this in the draft by selecting A.J. Terrell, but they still will have their hands full with the Seahawks’ weapons. In addition, Atlanta will be heaving the ball up and down the field in this contest too. This suggests that Seattle will be forced to throw the ball to keep up.

Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. SEA ($6700 DK, $7800 FD)
The other QB in this pairing, Matt Ryan, will likely be more popular due to the lower price. I’m fine with using either, as each should lock in at a floor of 300-2. I give a slight edge to Wilson, as Seattle’s secondary is better than Atlanta’s. Still, when you have Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Hayden Hurst at your disposal, you will post strong numbers every week.

DFS Sleepers

Philip Rivers, Colts @ JAX ($6000 DK, $7100 FD)
Jacksonville’s passing defense was middle of the road at best last year. Since then, they have punted anyone on their roster with a modicum of talent (with the exceptions of Gardner Minshew and D.J. Chark). Philip Rivers has the best offensive line he has ever had, he also has a deep corps of weapons to throw to. I don’t recommend punting QB this week, but if you do Rivers’ price on DK might be satisfactory. I love all of his passing game weapons this week, so I guess I will have some exposure to Rivers stacked with Jack Doyle and either T.Y. Hilton or Parris Campbell.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins @ NE ($5300 DK, $6400 FD)
New England’s defense remains solid despite a few players stepping away due to Covid-19. Nevertheless, Ryan Fitzpatrick has several weapons to target in this game including a healthy Davante Parker and Preston Williams. At this low price, you can afford to target two premium RBs (Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs) and still piece together a solid body to your roster. If you do go this route, I recommend stacking Fitz with Williams or Mike Gesicki.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Josh Jacobs is the only running back that I absolutely love this week. I’m still going to have exposure to Christian McCaffrey because he is a stud, and Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, and Miles Sanders due to their matchups. I just will look at those options as pivots. For RB2, I expect to target James White, Mark Ingram, Devin Singletary, or Jonathan Taylor. Each of those four may split time this week, but their matchups are golden. There is a strong likelihood that I will also roster my FLEX from this position. Currently, I am leaning one of the replacement-RBs (Tarik Cohen, Antonio Gibson, or James Robinson). They are each cheap enough to squeeze without much difficulty. I could also use a “pass-catching” back at my FLEX (Chris Thompson, Boston Scott, or Nyheim Hines) if I am really strapped for cash.

Fantasy Four Pack

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers vs LVR ($10000 DK, $10000 FD)
The Raiders were actually very stingy against opposing RBs last year. Only two teams allowed fewer RB rushing yards per game. That said, only six teams allowed more RB receiving yards than them. Christian McCaffrey is certainly known for his receiving prowess. I’m expecting him to have a very productive day, and he may even reach 3X value with the catches. The only reason he doesn’t get a green rating is that we don’t know yet what affect Teddy Bridgewater will have on the offense.

Josh Jacobs, Raiders @ CAR ($6800 DK, $8200 FD)
If he was guaranteed to be involved in the passing game as much as McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs may actually rank higher than him this week. Based on salary, he is the better option this week. Carolina managed to allow 30 total RB scores last year. That was ten more than the next-worst team. 27 of those scores came on the ground, and Jacobs doesn’t need to worry about splitting any ground touches.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers @ CIN ($7000 DK, $7700 FD)
Over the first four weeks of 2019 (while Melvin Gordon was out), Austin Ekeler had the fifth-most total yards and the most total TDs among RBs. In addition, his 24 receptions trailed only McCaffrey and he actually led the league in receiving yards over that span. Cincinnati didn’t give up a ton of receptions or receiving yards to opposing backs last year, but that was mainly because they couldn’t stop anyone on the ground. Cincinnati did upgrade their defense and Ekeler has a new QB, so there is a slight beware here. Still, if you can fit both Ekeler and Jacobs into your lineup – DO IT!

Aaron Jones, Packers @ MIN ($6900 DK, $7800 FD)
Last season, Aaron Jones exploded for 19 total scores. How does Green Bay repay him? They draft a running back early in the 2020 draft. That is almost as bad as drafting a QB high in the draft when you have a stud like Aaron Rod…oh wait. Jones scored three times and amassed 310 total yards in the two meetings with the Vikings last year. I’d be happy with half of that, but 125-1 would work too.

DFS Sleepers

Jonathan Taylor, Colts @ JAX ($5700 DK, $5400 FD)
Jacksonville finished last year allowing the second-most total scores to opposing RBs and the third-most rushing yards. Then they gutted their defense. That is right. It is only going to be worse for them this year. Yes, I am concerned about both Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines stealing some touches here. It won’t matter as all three could top 100 total yards and score before this one is over. The Colts did use a high pick on Jonathan Taylor so I expect he gets the lions’ share of the spoils.

Antonio Gibson, Football Team vs. PHI ($4000 DK, $4600 FD)
Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson have both left the facility leaving Antonio Gibson as the likely starter here. Technically, J.D. McKissic sits atop the Washington depth chart, but if you believe that, I have some nice oceanfront property in Oklahoma to sell you. Philly’s run defense isn’t awful, but they did give up a lot of RB receptions last year. Those will go to either McKissic or Gibson as Washington attempts to keep up with the Eagles.