Tag: dfs sleepers

We would have a smaller Week 12 slate thanks to our typical primetime games and the Thanksgiving day games. Fortunately, there are no bye weeks this week. We also currently get Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh moved to the Sunday player pool on DK. It remains to be seen if FD decides to add those players, but as of publishing they had not.

Historically, I’ve found that casual players tend to get their Thanksgiving weekends’ tied up with shopping and family and travel. That of course won’t be an issue this year, as shopping and travel and family have all been canceled by the ‘VID. It remains to be seen if we see some tourneys facing overlay on Sunday morning. Just don’t let the leftover turkey cause you to oversleep.

 

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

This rivalry game seems pretty one-sided for this season. Yes, Chicago has a very good defense. This is Aaron Rodgers in primetime though. Expecting him to not throw for 325-2 is outrageous. Even against the other solid defenses that he has faced, Rodgers has produced floor games that most QBs would envy. As for Chicago, we don’t even know who will be under center in this game. The team was in the catbird seat in the division earlier this season when Mitchell Trubisky was the starter. Still, his errant play got him benched for Nick Foles. Foles hasn’t done much better, but will the team bite the bullet and go back to Mitch? Making matters worse, both QBs are dealing with injuries. Rodgers will finish as either QB2 or QB3 on the slate (depending on Carson Wentz’s play), but whoever starts for Chicago will finish as the clear worst starter this week.

Perhaps surprisingly, Chicago is only middle-of-the-pack against opposing RBs. This means that barring a miraculous return from Chris Carson this week, Aaron Jones still gets to be RB2 on this slate. Unfortunately, there is not enough meat on the bone for Jamaal Williams to be considered a safe play. I’ll leave him for Showdown slate play. As for Chicago, David Montgomery should return this week. He hasn’t done a ton this year, but he does catch passes and Green Bay is atrocious at stopping the run. I actually like Montgomery as RB3 on this slate, and he makes a nice FLEX play. Ryan Nall did nill while Montgomery was out, so ignore him here.

Davante Adams is a stud. It doesn’t matter if he faces a good defense. He will finish as no worse than WR2 on this slate and he should be locked into your lineup card at WR1. If you do fade him based on his salary find a roster spot at WR3 for Allen Lazard or Marquez Valdes-Scantling. I wouldn’t go any deeper down the rabbit hole though. As for Chicago, Allen Robinson will face coverage from Jaire Alexander. It didn’t matter last season when he posted a pair of 100-yard games against Green Bay. I like him as the WR3 or WR4 here. He has fared well regardless of QB, so he is a sneaky roll it back option here if you also use Davante and Rodgers. Anthony Miller has seen more targets of late, but I can’t trust him as more than a WR3. Cordarelle Patterson could be a punt WR3 option, as he will get a few carries to spell the returning Montgomery. I like Darnell Mooney in dynasty, I just don’t see enough usage for him this week. He is no better than WR8 on this slate and likely lower than that.

Robert Tonyan has seen his usage decrease as Green Bay’s WRs have returned to health. Rodgers expects all of his weapons to be healthy this week, so I’m not jumping to start him, even in an ok matchup. He will be no better than TE2 on the slate. I’m definitely not reaching for Marcedes Lewis or Jace Sternberger. As for the Bears, Jimmy Graham was shut out by the Vikings. Yuck. Cole Kmet isn’t used enough to be considered here, but Graham could rebound since both QBs have targeted him regularly. Graham will still not be better than my fourth option here though. Amazingly, Chicago will be the DEF2 on this slate and Green Bay will be the DEF1.

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles

This game should have some fireworks. You have two offenses capable of putting up points going up against two defenses that have already phoned it in. The Seahawks are allowing a league-worst 355 passing yards per game – the next closest team is Atlanta at 313 passing yards per game. The Hawks are giving up even more yardage on the road. Carson Wentz has been maligned all season despite having AAF castoffs, converted TEs, and scat backs playing WR earlier in the year and despite having a piecemeal offensive line held together by duct tape and chewing gum. Despite all of this, Wentz still has multiple TDs in eight of ten games. What hasn’t been there is the yardage. That won’t be a problem this week though. Your QB2 will be either Wentz or Rodgers, don’t be surprised if it ends up being Wentz. As for Russell Wilson, he is second in passing yards. He leads the league in passing TDs and total TDs. He even ranks fourth among QBs in rushing yards. Oh yeah, he has also failed to tally three scores in only three games this year. That said, two of those three subpar games have come in the last two weeks. I’m not worried here at all though. Every talented QB to face Philly has done well. Their pass defense numbers look better on paper due to games against C.J. Beathard, Ben Dinucci, Dwayne Haskins, and Deep Fake Baker Mayfield. Wilson is a lock for three scores, 350 total yards, and the QB1 rank on this slate.

Philly is most thankful this holiday weekend to have Miles Sanders back. He is averaging just under five yards per touch in his two games back. He only has one score to show for it, but against this defense, he still nets the RB1 slot. Boston Scott is also in consideration at FLEX since Seattle has actually allowed multiple fantasy-relevant RBs in four of their last six games. The Seahawks will also be thankful to welcome back their top RB from injury. Chris Carson is projected to start Sunday after missing four weeks with a foot injury. Carson also averaged just under five YPC before his injury, but it remains to be seen if he is limited at all in his first game back. He may see a slightly reduced carry-load, with decent backups like Carlos Hyde and DeeJay Dallas able to spell him. His scoring shouldn’t suffer though as he is the back best suited for use at the stripe and he is averaging a score per game played this season. Plus, Philly has allowed a league fifth-worst ten RB rushing touchdowns. Assuming a mildly reduced role, I have him alongside David Montgomery at RB3. Either make a decent FLEX play. Hyde would be RB4 if Carson has a setback this week. Dallas and Travis Homer won’t see enough work to merit DFS usage.

Jalen Reagor has slowly begun to eat into the WR1 status of Travis Fulgham. I think deep down inside we all knew it was inevitable since talent does rise to the top. Fulgham does still have 12 targets over the last two games despite facing a pair of very good corners so all is not lost for him. Seattle has zero good cornerbacks, so both Reagor and Fulgham are in the WR2/3 conversation. Basically, every team has posted two or three high-end WR outputs against Seattle this season. I like both to approach 100 yards and score. Even Greg Ward deserves consideration as a punt WR3. Seattle can also bring it 3-deep, and Philadelphia has also allowed multiple fantasy-worthy WR starters in more than half of their games. This means that both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should be in the conversation with Davante Adams for WR1 on the slate. The Eagles have split their struggles between speedy receivers, slot possession guys, and big-bodied high-pointers all season, so there is no favorite play between them this week. In what should be a shootout, David Moore is also usable as a punt WR3.

Zach Ertz is not guaranteed to return this week, if he did I’d be hesitant to play him as anything more than a variance play for exposure in this game. I’m actually hoping he remains out as this will secure TE1 status for Dallas Goedert. Seattle has been so bad against WRs that opponents haven’t had to throw the ball to their TEs against them. Goedert is basically a bulky slot WR for Philly though. I love him this week as the likely third passing TD for Wentz. Due to his red-zone usage, Richard Rodgers is also in play as a punt TE if Ertz sits. Greg Olsen is done for the foreseeable future and possibly his career. This means we get the return to prominence of early 2019 fan-favorite Will Dissly and late 2019 fan-favorite Jacob Hollister. Either TE would approach 5-50 in this game if the other wasn’t there. The presence of both means they will probably split 6-60 making neither a great play. Outside of Goedert, there isn’t another sure thing TE on this slate, so feel free to try your luck with one of them. Each has the receiving chops to be successful. I like Dissly a bit more and wouldn’t be surprised if he catches a short TD. Neither defense is very good, but you could consider Seattle’s defense in hopes that Wentz continues his turnover fest, sack-filled season.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $8K for Patrick Mahomes. $9.5K for Dalvin Cook. $4.3K for Frank Gore. $7.8K for Tyreek Hill. $5.1K for Curtis Samuel. $4K for Hunter Renfrow. $3.1K for Irv Smith. $5K for Wayne Gallman (Assuming Devonta Freeman is out) or $5.1K for Salvon Ahmed (assuming Myles Gaskin remains out) at FLEX. $3.1K or $3.2K respectively for either the Browns’ or Giants’ defenses.

At FD: $9K for Mahomes. $11K for Cook. $5.2K for Gore. $5.9K for Samuel. $5.7K for Michael Pittman. $5.1K for Renfrow. $8K for Travis Kelce. $5.7K for Gallman at FLEX. $4.3K for the Giants’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Mahomes, Derek Carr at SF, Cook, Ahmed, Hill, Renfrow, Samuel, Kelce, and Gallman at FLEX.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Kyler Murray	$8,200	$9,100
Patrick Mahomes	$8,000	$9,000
Josh Allen	$7,600	$8,600
Justin Herbert	$7,200	$8,400
Lamar Jackson	$6,800	XXXX
Ben Roethlisberger	$6,600	XXXX
Tom Brady	$6,600	$7,900
Cam Newton	$6,400	$7,700
Teddy Bridgewater	$6,300	$7,000
Taysom Hill	$6,200	$7,300
Kirk Cousins	$6,100	$7,100
Philip Rivers	$6,100	$6,800
Jared Goff	$6,000	$7,000
Matt Ryan	$5,900	$7,600
Tua Tagovailoa	$5,900	$6,800
Ryan Tannehill	$5,800	$7,500
Derek Carr	$5,700	$7,100
Daniel Jones	$5,500	$7,200
P.J. Walker	$5,400	$6,500
Baker Mayfield	$5,300	$6,900
Nick Mullens	$5,200	$6,600
Drew Lock	$5,100	$6,700
Sam Darnold	$5,100	$6,500
Joe Flacco	$5,000	$6,500
Mike Glennon	$4,600	$6,200
Brandon Allen	XXXX	$6,000

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are the clear top options this week. Choosing one of them will put you light years ahead of the competition. Tom Brady would be the only pivot that I’d seriously consider. Teddy Bridgewater is still not a sure-thing starter. If he gets the start, it is a revenge game. Derek Carr and Daniel Jones are both a great value option. I also don’t mind Matt Ryan on DK. The only punt play that I would consider is P.J. Walker if Bridgewater sits.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs @ TB ($8000 DK, $9000 FD)
Last week, Jared Goff proved the all too obvious truth that Tampa Bay is bad against the pass. Now they have to deal with Patrick Mahomes in a likely shootout. Mahomes will throw for at least three TDs as KC realizes that they cannot move the ball on the ground against the very strong Buccaneers’ run defense.

Josh Allen, Bills vs. LAC ($7600 DK, $8600 FD)
The Chargers aren’t giving up a ton of yardage to opposing QBs but they have allowed the seventh-most passing TDs and the fourth-most total TDs to the position. Meanwhile, Josh Allen has the third-most rushing TDs among all QBs and only seven other QBs have more passing TDs than him. Justin Herbert has the tools and weapons to keep this game somewhat competitive, which should force Buffalo to keep their foot on the accelerator.

Tom Brady, Buccaneers vs. KC ($6600 DK, $7900 FD)
We know Kansas City will be throwing all game. Fortunately, Tom Brady also has the skills and weapons to stay competitive. Unlike Herbert above, Brady isn’t traveling west to east for an early game. Brady also has three elite-level weapons compared to Herbert who has Keenan Allen and a couple of good but not great secondary options. This game will be high-scoring and while the rest of the pool is on Mahomes, Brady provides exposure to the game for less cost.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals @ NE ($8200 DK, $9100 FD)
Kyler Murray has the combination of running and passing skills that everyone expected Lamar Jackson to feature this year. New England has some solid cornerbacks and Murray may be limited slightly by his shoulder, but that shouldn’t completely take you off of him. Murray can score via his feet or arm from any point on the field. I also highly doubt that Kliff Kingsbury will let him play this week if the injury is a legit concern. I’m going to pass on pairing him with DeAndre Hopkins who will likely see a Stephon Gilmore shadow, but Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Andy Isabella, and the RBs should give him enough potential value.

DFS Sleepers

Derek Carr, Raiders @ ATL ($5700 DK, $7100 FD)
Atlanta has allowed the second-most passing yards, the second-most passing TDs, and the most rushing TDs to opposing QBs. Derek Carr has multiple touchdowns in seven of ten games and he is distributing the ball to a huge selection of receiving options (all of whom are finally healthy). I particularly like pairing Carr with his tight end Darren Waller or his possession receiver Hunter Renfrow.

Daniel Jones, Giants @ CIN ($5500 DK, $7200 FD)
Cincinnati has allowed 15 passing touchdowns over their last five games. Now that they no longer have their franchise QB, the likelihood that the team might start to phone it in grows. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones has all of his passing weapons (except Saquan Barkley) healthy and on the field for basically the first time in his career. It’s not quite as safe of a value as Carr, but barring something crazy with the weather I like Jones to hit 3x.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Dalvin Cook	$9,500	$11,000
Christian McCaffrey	$9,200	$10,000
Alvin Kamara	$8,200	$8,600
Derrick Henry	$7,900	$8,300
Josh Jacobs	$7,200	$8,000
Nick Chubb	$7,100	$8,400
Mike Davis	$6,900	$7,200
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	$6,400	$6,700
James Robinson	$6,300	$7,400
James Conner	$6,200	XXXX
Austin Ekeler	$6,100	$6,500
Ronald Jones	$6,100	$6,500
Jonathan Taylor	$5,900	$6,400
Latavius Murray	$5,900	$5,000
Damien Harris	$5,800	$6,000
Kalen Ballage	$5,800	$5,500
Giovani Bernard	$5,700	$6,100
Myles Gaskin	$5,700	$5,600
Kareem Hunt	$5,600	$6,600
Raheem Mostert	$5,600	$7,000
J.K. Dobbins	$5,500	XXXX
Todd Gurley	$5,500	$6,900
Kenyan Drake	$5,400	$6,200
Chase Edmonds	$5,300	$5,800
Gus Edwards	$5,200	XXXX
Melvin Gordon	$5,200	$6,800
Darrell Henderson	$5,100	$5,900
Salvon Ahmed	$5,100	$5,800
Wayne Gallman	$5,000	$5,700
Leonard Fournette	$4,900	$5,600
Zack Moss	$4,800	$5,600
Malcolm Brown	$4,700	$5,500
Devonta Freeman	$4,600	$5,000
Nyheim Hines	$4,600	$5,700
James White	$4,500	$5,400
Le’Veon Bell	$4,500	$5,600
Mark Ingram	$4,400	XXXX
Phillip Lindsay	$4,400	$5,300
Frank Gore	$4,300	$5,200
Cam Akers	$4,200	$5,500
Devin SIngletary	$4,200	$5,500
Brian Hill	$4,000	$5,100
Samaje Perine	$4,000	$4,800

Running Back

Weekly strategy –  FD has pushed Dalvin Cook over the $11K figure. That is crazy. It is also still a safe 3x target for Dalvin. He remains the safest big-dollar play on the slate. Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs are the only clear pivots anywhere near this price range. Giovani Bernard (if he plays) and Todd Gurley are my top RB2 options. If I don’t use one of them, I will go with the Miami starter, the Giants’ starter, James White, Nyheim Hines, or Frank Gore.  I will also use one of those five at the FLEX position. If Bernard does not play, Samaje Perine could have some punt appeal.

Fantasy Four Pack

Dalvin Cook, Vikings vs. CAR ($9500 DK, $11000 FD)
Even at $11K, Dalvin Cook is safe to hit 3x value. Carolina has been one of the historically worst run defenses for approaching two seasons now. Since the start of 2019, Carolina is allowing an average of just under 150 total yards per game and just over 1.5 total TDs per game to opposing RBs. Cook will blow by both of those benchmarks.

Nick Chubb, Browns @ JAX ($7100 DK, $8400 FD)
Nick Chubb cannot truly be considered a pivot when his price is $2.5K less than Dalvin. Still, he is the next highest-priced player who was most likely to hit 3x. Jacksonville is allowing just under 140 total yards per game to opposing RBs. Chubb will split touches with Kareem Hunt, but Chubb is averaging 6.2 yards per carry since his return from injury.

Josh Jacobs, Raiders @ ATL ($7200 DK, $8000 FD)
Josh Jacobs gets to face an Atlanta defense that has been brutal against the pass, but actually pretty solid against the run. Still, Jacobs has been scoring at will of late and Vegas is not afraid to give him 25+ touches in a game.

Alvin Kamara, Saints @ DEN ($8200 DK, $8600 FD)
The presence of Taysom Hill under the center produces a potential vulture at the stripe for Alvin Kamara. Even with a reduced number of touches in the last few weeks, Kamara has five scores over his last three games. Taysom will find him in the passing game eventually. Over the last four weeks, Denver has allowed the second-most total yards and total TDs to the position. New Orleans should have a big lead this week, so expect Alvin and his running mate Latavius Murray to get a lot of clock management carries in the second half.

DFS Sleepers

Todd Gurley, Falcons vs. LV ($5500 DK, $6900 FD)
All Todd Gurley does is score TDs. This is essential to know because only two teams have allowed more RB scores. Gurley (as always it seems) is nursing a knee injury, so watch his status. If he cannot go, Brian Hill could be a slate-breaker.

Wayne Gallman, Giants @ CIN ($5000 DK, $5700 FD)
If you told me at the start of the year that Wayne Gallman would be on an active NFL roster at this point in the season, I would’ve laughed. Now, not only is he the starter for the Giants. He is poised for a huge performance. Cincy has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing RBs and more than 5.2 YPC. Obviously, keep an eye on Devonta Freeman’s practice status. His ankle injury return will be soon. If he plays this week it takes away a lot of Gallman’s luster.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
DeAndre Hopkins	$8,100	$8,500
Keenan Allen	$8,000	$8,200
Tyreek Hill	$7,800	$8,600
Stefon Diggs	$7,600	$7,900
Michael Thomas	$7,400	$7,700
Calvin Ridley	$7,100	$8,100
Adam Thielen	$6,800	$7,800
A.J. Brown	$6,700	$7,500
Julio Jones	$6,500	$8,000
Cooper Kupp	$6,400	$6,700
Justin Jefferson	$6,300	$7,000
Diontae Johnson	$6,200	XXXX
DJ Moore	$6,200	$7,300
Chase Claypool	$6,100	XXXX
Mike Evans	$6,100	$7,100
Robby Anderson	$6,100	$6,400
Chris Godwin	$6,000	$7,400
DeVante Parker	$5,900	$6,500
JuJu Smith-Schuster	$5,900	XXXX
Christian Kirk	$5,800	$6,100
Robert Woods	$5,800	$6,800
Antonio Brown	$5,700	$6,500
Brandon Aiyuk	$5,600	$6,600
Cole Beasley	$5,500	$5,400
Deebo Samuel	$5,400	$6,000
Jamison Crowder	$5,400	$6,300
Jakobi Meyers	$5,300	$5,800
DJ Chark	$5,200	$6,100
Jarvis Landry	$5,200	$5,700
Curtis Samuel	$5,100	$5,900
Jerry Jeudy	$5,100	$5,700
Sterling Shepard	$5,100	$5,400
Michael Pittman	$5,000	$5,700
Mike WIlliams	$5,000	$6,100
Tyler Boyd	$5,000	$6,900
Corey Davis	$4,900	$6,000
Darius Slayton	$4,900	$5,900
Nelson Agholor	$4,900	$5,900
Tim Patrick	$4,900	$5,500
Emmanuel Sanders	$4,800	$5,600
John Brown	$4,800	$5,700
Russell Gage	$4,800	$5,200
Marquise Brown	$4,700	XXXX
Rashard Higgins	$4,700	$5,500
Sammy Watkins	$4,700	$5,600
Tee Higgins	$4,700	$6,200
Henry Ruggs	$4,300	$5,500
Josh Reynolds	$4,300	$5,800
Willie Snead	$4,300	XXXX
Breshad Perriman	$4,200	$5,900
Mecole Hardman	$4,200	$5,500
Damiere Byrd	$4,100	$5,400
Zach Pascal	$4,100	$5,000
Hunter Renfrow	$4,000	$5,100
Kendrick Bourne	$4,000	$5,200
T.Y. Hilton	$3,900	$5,400
Larry Fitzgerald	$3,800	$5,100
Demarcus Robinson	$3,700	$5,300
Jakeem Grant	$3,700	$4,800
A.J. Green	$3,600	$5,300
Dez Bryant	$3,600	XXXX
Keelan Cole	$3,600	$5,300
Denzel Mims	$3,500	$5.600
Golden Tate	$3,500	$5,100
KJ Hamler	$3,500	$5.100

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Up top you are going to want at least one of Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, or Michael Thomas. Fitting two of them under the cap will be next to impossible, but feel free to try. Both Calvin Ridley and Keenan Allen can be lesser-owned pivots. Any of the Panthers’ WRs makes a nice WR2. I am leaning Curtis Samuel. I also like Justin Jefferson in that same game and Chris Godwin on DK. For WR3, I am leaning towards one of the Raiders, one of the Giants, one of the Colts, or maybe Emmanuel Sanders in a revenge game. Hunter Renfrow and Michael Pittman are my favorite twosome from that group.

Fantasy Four Pack

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs @ TB ($7800 DK, $8600 FD)
Running the ball against the Buccaneers is a mistake. It isn’t like KC likes to run the ball anyways. It helps that Tampa has an offense that can keep this game competitive. That means that KC won’t be encouraged to run out the clock in the second half. We should get a full game of four-wide for Mahomes and Company. That should equate to a huge game fromt he best stack of the week Mahomes-Tyreek Hill-Travis Kelce. Sammy Watkins may be back healthy this week too and he could be a sneaky way to get access to this game while fading Hill.

Michael Thomas, Saints @ DEN ($7400 DK, $7700 FD)
So, Apparently Taysom Hill likes targeting Michael Thomas. I mean that sort of usage was what I expected with Drew Brees under center. The last four weeks, Denver has allowed the fourth-most WR touchdowns. Three of those scores went to opposing WR1s. I expect Emmanuel Sanders to have a good game as well since this si a revenge game for him.

Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. LAC ($7600 DK, $7900 FD)
WR1s have eaten all season versus the Chargers thanks to the depleted secondary. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs has 85 yards and/or a touchdown in every game but one. That sort of consistentcy is what you dream of in DFS.

Calvin Ridley, Falcons vs. LV ($7100 DK, $8100 FD)
Vegas’ pass defense is better than we ever expected. They still are allowing a fair amount of points to opponents WR1s. It ultimately comes down to whether or not Julio Jones is limited or out this week. I’m not sure that Atlanta can support two big performers against this defense, but whoever ends up being the #1 this week should have a solid game. Right now that is trending towards being Calvin Ridley. He is used to being the center of attention, drawing seven or more targets in seven of nine games this year.

DFS Sleepers

Curtis Samuel, Panthers @ MIN ($5100 DK, $5900 FD)
Minnesota’s pass defense has been deservingly maligned all year. Simply put, they are young and mistake-prone. They will grow into their clothes over time, but for now when they battle three-deep WR corps, they have no prayer. Curtis Samuel has been very active for Carolina, both catching the ball and acting as a C-O-P back to both Christian McCaffrey and Mike Davis. His swiss-army nature has helped him net five scores over his last five games. Another is coming here.

Michael Pittman, Colts vs. TEN ($5000 DK, $5700 FD)
Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing WRs. They have especially struggled with big-bodied WRs like Michael Pittman. One of the bigger games they have allowed recently went to Pittman back in Week 10 as part of a 7-101 receiving line, where he also added 21 yards on the ground.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Travis Kelce	$7,000	$8,000
Darren Waller	$6,000	$7,100
Mark Andrews	$5,200	XXXX
Hunter Henry	$4,800	$5,900
Evan Engram	$4,500	$5,600
Rob Gronkowski	$4,400	$6,200
Mike Gesicki	$4,300	$5,600
Noah Fant	$4,200	$5,700
Eric Ebron	$4,100	XXXX
Jonnu Smith	$4,100	$6,000
Hayden Hurst	$3,900	$5,500
Austin Hooper	$3,800	$5,100
Tyler Higbee	$3,700	$5,300
Jordan Reed	$3,600	$5,000
Jared Cook	$3,500	$5,800
Gerald Everett	$3,300	$4,700
Trey Burton	$3,200	$5,400
Irv Smith	$3,100	$5,200
Ross Dwelley	$2,900	$5,000
Kyle Rudolph	$2,800	$4,600

Tight End

Weekly strategy – We finally have the week where you want to spend up at TE. Travis Kelce and Darren Waller are the two highest-priced and they are both primed to produce the best numbers of the week at the position by a lot. The second-tier options have some upside, but none truly feels safe. I’d say if you don’t go with one of the big two, I’d just punt down to Trey Burton or Irv Smith (especially if Adam Thielen is out).

Fantasy Four Pack

Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ TB ($7000 DK, $8000 FD)
Travis Kelce leads the TE position in every meaningful fantasy category. Even if you just look at the last four weeks (which includes Kelce’s bye week), Kelce leads in each of those categories. Tampa has allowed the sixth-most TE touchdowns despite facing only a couple of high-end options there. Kelce will approach

Darren Waller, Raiders @ ATL ($6000 DK, $7000 FD)
Darren Waller is second to Kelce in receptions, targets, and receiving yards, and he trails only four TEs in TDs. There is a decent option for using both of them this week. Atlanta has allowed the most TE scores, the second-most TE receiving yards, and the fourth-most TE receptions

Evan Engram, Giants @ CIN ($4500 DK, $5600 FD)
Prior to Week 10’s stinker, Evan Engram had 29 targets over his previous three games. That actually led all TEs over the span of Weeks 7-9. If you include his rushing yards, he would’ve finished third among all TEs during that span. Cincy has played better of late, but they have given up some big performances early in the year to similar-level TEs like Hunter Henry, Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews, and Trey Burton.

Hunter Henry, Chargers @ BUF ($4800 DK, $5900 FD)
No team has allowed more receptions or receiving yards to opposing TEs. They also have allowed the sixth-most TDs to the position. Hunter Henry has scored in back-to-back games and he has six or more targets in all but two games. With Tre’Davious White shutting down one of the WRs, Justin Herbert will have to lean even more on his big tight end.

DFS Sleepers

Mike Gesicki, Dolphins @ NYJ ($4300 DK, $5600 FD)
Mike Gesicki started the season on an upward trajectory with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, but once Tua Tagovailoa took over his targets took a tumble. He still isn’t seeing a ton of looks, but he has topped 40 yards receiving in three straight games. Tua will be back under center Sunday so hopefully, this new trend continues. A Gesicki TD is also in play as New York ranks fourth-worst in terms of TE scores allowed, this includes a pair of scores to Gesicki’s running mates (Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe) back in Week 6.

Irv Smith, Vikings vs. CAR ($3100 DK, $5200 FD)
Currently, Adam Thielen is questionable to play this week due to COVID. If Thielen misses the game both Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith will act as option B in the Vikings’ passing game. Irv is actually built like a large WR, so he may even be on the field in three WR sets. You can move the ball on the Panthers with TEs, they have allowed the second-most receptions and the third-most receiving yards to the position.

[lawrence-newsletter]

We continue forward deeper into the pandemic-fueled 2020 season. Injuries and illness have decimated the QB and TE positions. We are on RB3 and RB4 for some teams right now. WR is really the only position that hasn’t been pummeled this season. Of course, we also have several NFL teams that have decided to punt the WR position as well. This is good news for DFS players because we can get WR1 production at WR3 prices by choosing the top options from teams that otherwise are devoid of talent. I mean they have to throw it to someone right. With mediocre crap filling up the positions, I’d rather spend up for the true talent there and backfill with the values at the WR spot – just seek out the volume plays. With this being the last major bye week of the year and with two premiere offenses playing Thursday night and three other higher-end offenses playing in the Primetime Slate, we need to find value where we can.

 

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs will be seeking to avenge their sole loss of the year to the Raiders this week. Las Vegas simply out-lasted them in the earlier contest. It was amazing because Kansas City has a much better offense than Vegas. Patrick Mahomes has five games this season with three or more TDs. One of those was the game against Vegas. At that point, Kansas City actually was still attempting to run the ball in addition to passing.  Now the Chiefs are just going four-wide on every down and we see Mahomes throw for nearly 800 yards and nine passing scores in just the last two weeks. This is despite facing back-to-back rotten run defenses. The Raiders’ run defense may be worse than both of the last two opponents, but if the Chiefs’ RBs aren’t even going to be on the field as anything more than pass-blockers, then I’m all-in on Mahomes having another insane game. He is easily the QB1 here. As for the Raiders, Derek Carr is trending the wrong way since the earlier meeting against the Chiefs. He has 430 passing yards and three touchdowns TOTAL over the last three games. Compare that with the 347-3 he posted in just the Chiefs’ game. I think he is no safer this week than QB3, and that is purely speculating that he can keep this one close.

As I mentioned above, Kansas City has basically abandoned the run in their last two games. They have 92 pass attempts compared to only 31 run attempts. Even in that earlier game, the spread was just a hair above 2-1. What this means is that even though the Raiders are a cake matchup for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell, you cannot start either of them as anything higher than a FLEX. I’m honestly not even sure which one I’d recommend as a dart throw here. It would probably be Helaire just because he is seeing more targets. Josh Jacobs had a very solid day in the earlier meeting. He scored twice (one of three multi-score weeks for him this season). He also watched Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard siphon off a lot of touches. Richard was hurt last week, so perhaps Jacobs doesn’t get vultured quite as much this week. He still has to deal with Booker, who is seeing more and more snaps each week. This slate features four split backfields, so any surety is a must-start. That makes Jacobs RB1 here. If Booker continues his change of pace role, I can safely recommend him as a FLEX option. I’m just scared that the Chiefs jump out early and severely limit the rushing attempts for Vegas this time around. Richard will be no better than the third-option here so he should be avoided in any non-Showdown format, and even then he might not be play-worthy.

As is standard, Sammy Watkins had a huge Week 1, and then he disappeared never to be seen again. Word is he may return this week, but we’ve heard that one before. In his absence, Demarcus Robinson has been a very solid option by scoring and/or topping 60 receiving yards in three of the last four games. I love him this week as a cheap alternative to the expensive Tyreek Hill. Hill is still the WR1 on this slate, but his price may be prohibitive. Still, he has five touchdowns over the last three weeks so don’t ignore him completely. Mecole Hardman has also seen an uptick in usage with Watkins out. His speed puts him in play as a WR3, even if Watkins returns. The only one hurt by Watkins returning would be Robinson. If Sammy plays, I could see using Robinson as no more than a WR3. Without Watkins, both Hardman and Robinson could be WR2 choices. As for Sammy, I don’t trust Watkins to do anything even if he does play, so just leave him on the bench. Bryan Pringle is always a favorite of mine in Showdown slates, but he is not in play here. The Raiders will likely have to throw the ball to stay in this one. It helps that all five of Carr’s wide receivers should be able to suit up for this game. Of course, this multi-faceted attack limits their individual appeal. Brian Edwards returned and posted a single catch, but his presence ate into Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow’s workload. Agholor is the safest of that threesome since he remains the primary deep threat for Carr. Henry Ruggs has also been involved deep, dropping a likely long touchdown last week. Still, he hasn’t seen more than four targets since Week 1. You’ll want to run it back with one of these guys, but the choice is difficult. Whichever one you choose will be no more than your WR3. I’d go with Ruggs since he led the team in WR snaps last week and since he scored in the earlier meeting. Agholor would be my second choice and I’ll leave Edwards, Renfrow, and Zay Jones off my lineup cards.

Travis Kelce leads all TEs in every category. He scored and topped 100 yards in their earlier meeting and he is without a doubt the TE1 here. Darren Waller will be a little bit cheaper and despite all of the returning WRs, Waller is still getting a large number of targets. The Chiefs are the toughest of the four teams in terms of shutting down opposing TEs. That said, one of the scores they gave up earlier this year was to Waller. He is more reliable than the Monday night TEs, even though their matchups are easier. I’ll give him the TE2 role here and a possible FLEX assignment if you go Double-TE. Despite Carr’s recent lack of production, he remains one of the best QBs in the league in regards to not turning the ball over. Still, I’ll give Kansas City the DEF2 ranking here just a smidge over Tampa Bay.

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jared Goff has tended to play up or down to his competition level for his entire career. He actually had a great passing game last week, but he ceded all of the TDs to the running game. It was the fourth time this year and the second-straight game in which he has thrown for zero or one TD. Running against Tampa Bay is virtually impossible, so perhaps this week Goff gets it done through the air. I still have him only a hair above Carr and Brady as QB2, with all three several lengths behind Mahomes. As for the Rams, their pass defense is legit. They just took out MVP candidate Russell Wilson. Tom Brady is the GOAT, but this week he is no better than QB3 out of this group of four. Brady just needs to be happy that he is not facing the Rams in LA, where they have given up only one passing TD all season.

The Rams have played musical running backs all season. None will do anything on the ground against this defense. Their best hope is that Malcolm Brown gets a TD plunge. As impossible as it is to run against the Rams, they are allowing the most receptions to the RB position. Cam Akers has been unused in the passing game, so he is firmly planted on your bench. Darrell Henderson has the most talent of any of the three of them, but he had the fewest yards and usage of any of them last week. He also trails Brown on the year in both targets and receptions. All of this adds up to Brown being the best play of the three, yet no more than RB3 overall on the slate. Ronald Jones fumbled early last week and Twitter exploded expecting him to not play again until at least Week 13. Instead, Jones returned to the game, had a 98-yard TD run, and finished with an absurd 198 total yards. Now before you go saying “I told ya so” in regards to Jones, remember this was against a Carolina Panthers’ team that hasn’t shut down an RB-room since nearly 2017. Yes, Jones is the RB2 on this slate, but it is less due to his talent, and more due to the lack of defined RB roles on the other teams. Leonard Fournette should still see a few passes out of the backfield, but barring multiple early fumbles from Jones, he is now relegated to C-O-P status. With so many other possible FLEX plays this week (Booker, Brown, the TEs), I don’t even love him there.

It is much easier to beat Tampa Bay through the air. This means that Jared Goff should throw the ball early and often. Cooper Kupp is my favorite play of his WRs since the Bucs have had issues with possession and slot WRs. He should be the WR2 on this slate, and I will play him as WR1 in any lineup that I don’t use Tyreek Hill. Robert Woods has actually been out-targeted by Josh Reynolds the last three games. Woods still has a couple of scores over that stretch thanks to his running attempts. This week, he gets WR2 consideration, but only if you are not using Kupp. Reynolds needs to be considered as the cheap WR3 option if you don’t use one of the Raiders. I can actually see using both him and Kupp in the same stack with Goff. Van Jefferson may be good in the future, but for now, he will need an injury to be relevant. I’ll leave him for Showdown slates only. The Buccaneers have three legitimate candidates for WR1 on any given week. This week, at least one of them will be locked down by Jalen Ramsey. My money is on Ramsey shadowing the most talented option that being Chris Godwin. Don’t be surprised, however, if Mike Evans becomes the shadow target of Ramsey. Due to the matchup, I don’t like either as more than a WR2 this week, and considering their prices, I don’t even really like that. Whichever one avoids Ramsey will have some value, the other one is unusable. The one WR I like here is Antonio Brown. His possession role (particularly if he lines up in the slot this week) is the best choice of the threesome. Since the signing of Brown, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson have become afterthoughts in this offense. Do not waste your time or roster slots on either of them.

Neither defense is very good against opposing TEs. Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate may have some value since Brady will likely be forced to look inside with his passes. Still, with so many weapons and such a flatlined ceiling for Brady, I cannot predict big yardage for either of them. In both cases, you are simply begging for the TD. Gronk is TE4 here and Brate is TE6. I’m not going to use either of them unless my salary cap funds are completely depleted. Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett have alternated solid games all season. Higbee appears to be fully recovered from his earlier injury, so perhaps his big Week 10 game is the trend in the right direction for him. I like Higbee as no worse than TE3 here, and Everett at TE5 against a defense that has allowed six TE scores already this season. Either would be an interesting Double-TE play, and both will save you tremendously cost-wise compared to Kelce and Waller if you use them at your primary TE slot. The Rams and Bucs are both options at defense this week. I like the Rams a slight bit more, but neither is awful.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $6.7K for Ben Roethlisberger. $9.2K for Alvin Kamara. $5.8K for Antonio Gibson. $6.4K or less for your choice of JuJu Smith-Schuster or Diontae Johnson. $6.1K for Jamison Crowder. $4.3K for Jalen Reagor. $3.3K for Logan Thomas. $5.7K for Damien Harris or less for one of the Colts’ RBs at FLEX. $2.3K for the Falcons’ defense.

At FD: $8K for Roethlisberger. $9.7K for Kamara. $6.5K for Gibson. $6.4K for Diontae. $6.6K for Crowder. $4.6K for Jakeem Grant. $4.5K for Taysom Hill. $10.5K for Dalvin Cook at FLEX. $3.2K for the Falcons’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Roethlisberger, Carson Wentz at SF, D’Andre Swift, Gibson, Diontae, Travis Fulgham, Breshad Perriman, Travis Kelce, and Cook at FLEX.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Lamar Jackson	$7,300	$8,400
Aaron Rodgers	$7,000	$9,000
Justin Herbert	$6,800	$8,500
Ben Roethlisberger	$6,700	$8,000
Deshaun Watson	$6,500	$7,700
Matt Ryan	$6,300	$7,800
Cam Newton	$6,200	$7,600
Kirk Cousins	$6,200	$7,100
Ryan Tannehill	$6,100	$7,300
Matthew Stafford	$6,000	$7,500
Jameis Winston	$5,900	$7,200
Tua Tagovailoa	$5,800	$6,700
Carson Wentz	$5,700	$7,400
Philip Rivers	$5,600	$7,000
Joe Burrow	$5,500	$7,700
Baker Mayfield	$5,400	$7,000
Drew Lock	$5,400	$6,800
Alex Smith	$5,300	$6,600
Andy Dalton	$5,300	$6,900
Garrett Gilbert	$5,200	$6,500
Jake Luton	$5,000	$6,500
Joe Flacco	$5,000	$6,100
P.J. Walker	$4,800	$6,500
Taysom Hill	$4,800	XXXX
Will Grier	$4,600	$6,000

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Ben Roethlisberger is really the only high-priced option I know will hit 3X value. Lamar Jackson may on DK, but I’m not confident about him on FD. Justin Herbert will be over-owned against the Jets and the Chargers may just lean on their plethora of RBs. Matt Ryan is my likely pivot. He should reach 3X as well if the game script plays out as I expect.  Jameis Winston could have a solid day and I feel better about his DK price than his FD price. The same goes for Carson Wentz. This might be the week to save some money at the position and punt with Alex Smith or even Mr. Elite Joe Flacco.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers @ JAX ($6700 DK, $8000 FD)
Last week, I was concerned that Aaron Rodgers might not meet value because Aaron Jones would run the ball all game against these Jaguars. I was wrong there. I’m not concerned about the Steelers’ running game right now, because they have abandoned it. Much like the Chiefs, Pittsburgh was running 5-Wide sets up 22 points midway through the fourth quarter. Apparently, they believe to beat the Chiefs they have to perform on offense as the Chiefs would. Ben Roethlisberger has no shortage of stud weapons to throw to. All three of his top WRs will score this week, and I like Ebron to nab a TD as well. We learned last week that Jake Luton could stay competitive in bad weather, but that was against the subpar and short-handed Packers’ defense. Luton stands no chance against Pittsburgh. Normally, that would scare me off of the QB and onto Conner, but after seeing the Steelers’ strategy the last two weeks, that fear has disappeared.

Matt Ryan, Falcons @ NO ($6300 DK, $7800 FD)
Matt Ryan has multiple passing TDs in eight of his last ten games against the Saints. He also has topped 300 passing yards in 12 of 23 career meetings with them. The only negative trend Ryan has against New Orleans is that he is getting sacked far too frequently against them (19 times in his last four games). Assuming he isn’t knocked out of this game, Ryan and Jameis Winston should put up a shootout with all of their combined weapons. I like both of them this week, but know that Winston is more likely to throw a few INTs. Either way, lock in Ryan for 300+ yards and 2-3 passing scores.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens vs. TEN ($7300 DK, $8400 FD)
Tennessee is rotten on pass defense. Only five teams have allowed more passing yards and only two teams have allowed more passing TDs. Unfortunately for Lamar Jackson, throwing the ball hasn’t been his strong suit this season. He has one game with more than 250 passing yards this season, that was way back in Week 1. The two running QBs that Tennessee has faced this season (Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson) did little on the ground against the Titans. This was less because Tennessee shut them down on the ground, and more because they were both able to throw the ball at will. Jackson’s weapons are nowhere near on par with the WRs that Allen and Watson can throw out there, so the 250 mark seems like a passing ceiling for Jackson. We can also say that Jackson is a better ball carrier than either Allen or Watson, so we still like him to produce at least a floor rushing game of 55-1. All in, he should finish as one of the top-3 QBs in points this week, but I don’t feel as confident about him as I do some of the others.

Justin Herbert, Chargers vs. NYJ ($6800 DK, $8500 FD)
I have already made the outlandish claim on our weekly office pool picks that the Jets are going to upset the Chargers this week. In order for this to happen, Joe Flacco will have to throw the ball frequently to his growing collection of WRs. If he is throwing the ball a lot, then Justin Herbert will actually need to throw it a lot too. This would be a perfect storm to keep the Chargers from just running the ball down New York’s throat. The Jets have allowed huge fantasy points to each of the last five QBs they have faced. Including some big yardage on the ground. Since Week 4, Herbert is tied for the league lead in passing TDs and he has a couple of rushing scores as well. I loathe paying this much for a rookie QB on FD, but at DK he should easily hit the 3X mark. It all comes down to the Chargers not abandoning the pass here.

DFS Sleepers

Alex Smith, Football Team vs. CIN ($5300 DK, $6600 FD)
Over the last two weeks, no QB has thrown for more yards than Alex Smith. Yes, it is a small sample size and yes, it was against two horrible pass defenses. Cincy isn’t much better. They have allowed 14 passing TDs over their last four games. So, I trust that Smith will not only top 300 yards once again but also finally reach that two-TD plateau.

Joe Flacco, Jets @ LAC ($5000 DK, $6100 FD)
Up above, I discuss what I expect to happen between the Chargers and Jets. Joe Flacco, quietly, has a dearth of finally healthy WRs to throw to. The Chargers have allowed multiple TDs to seven of the nine QBs they have faced, and each of the last six they have faced. The Jets have zero running game, so they will have to lean on Flacco. Normally that would suck, but with Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder to throw to, it sucks a little less. Heck, if we had a healthy Sam Darnold this week, he might finish as a top-5 QB. Flacco won’t reach those heights, but 275-2/3 is possible.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey	$9,400	$10,000
Alvin Kamara	$9,200	$9,700
Dalvin Cook	$9,000	$10,500
Derrick Henry	$8,000	$8,200
Aaron Jones	$7,200	$8,200
Nick Chubb	$7,000	$8,100
Miles Sanders	$6,900	$7,700
Mike Davis	$6,800	$7,400
Kareem Hunt	$6,700	$6,700
James Conner	$6,600	$7,000
Ezekiel Elliott	$6,500	$8,000
D’Andre Swift	$6,400	$6,900
James Robinson	$6,400	$7,200
Joe Mixon	$6,300	$7,500
Latavius Murray	$5,900	$5,000
Todd Gurley	$5,900	$6,700
Antonio Gibson	$5,800	$6,500
Jonathan Taylor	$5,800	$5,700
Damien Harris	$5,700	$5,800
Jamaal WIlliams	$5,700	$5,300
Boston Scott	$5,600	$5,200
Kalen Ballage	$5,600	$5,800
Giovani Bernard	$5,500	$6,300
Duke Johnson	$5,400	$6,000
J.D. McKissic	$5,200	$5,600
Nyheim Hines	$5,200	$6,100
David Johnson	$5,100	$6,200
J.K. Dobbins	$5,100	$5,500
Melvin Gordon	$5,100	$6,400
Mark Ingram	$5,000	$5,900
Salvon Ahmed	$4,800	$5,600
Rex Burkhead	$4,600	$5,900
Gus Edwards	$4,500	$5,500
Phillip Lindsay	$4,500	$5,400
La’Mical Perine	$4,400	$5,400
James White	$4,200	$5,300
Frank Gore	$4,100	$5,000
Adrian Peterson	$4,000	$5,100
Brian Hill	$4,000	$5,000
Jordan Wilkins	$4,000	$5,300
Joshua Kelley	$4,000	$5,200

Running Back

Weekly strategy –  FD is being miserly this week with huge salaries all around. Three RBs near or above $10K??? Of course, one of them is almost assuredly out. The other two actually have smash spots. There is seriously no easy way to fit both Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook into your lineup without seriously punting elsewhere. That said, with Flacco and Wentz and Smith as cheaper QB options that you can stack with cheaper WRs, you can probably do it. At least use one of them. Mike Davis and D’Andre Swift are my favorite pivot plays. Neither will have high ownership percentages. Looking a little cheaper, Antonio Gibson is also primed for a huge game. If you have a failure to trust a stack with Alex Smith and a WR, perhaps you can use Gibson as RB2 to save some money. Both Damien Harris and his running mate Rex Burkhead could be cheap RB2 options as well. Punt options this week include Salvon Ahmed, J.D. McKissic, Melvin Gordon, and the Colts’ RBs.

Fantasy Four Pack

Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. ATL ($9200 DK, $9700 FD)
Alvin Kamara has never scored against Atlanta. That seems impossible but it is true. That will change this week as the Saints do everything possible to protect Jameis Winston. Atlanta is one of the worst teams at defending pass-catching RBs, and that is Kamara’s wheelhouse (or wheel route if you will). Kamara also proved last week that even if he is held in check on the ground, that he still can post a no yardage -multiple TD rushing performance. This is why he trails only Dalvin Cook in terms of total RB scores this year.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings vs. DAL ($9000 DK, $10500 FD)
Wow, $10.5K on FD. That will be hard to stomach. He still might reach 3X versus the biblically bad Cowboys. Houston is the only team to allow more rushing yards to opposing RBs this year. Plus, Dalvin Cook can do so much damage both on the ground and through the air. Over his last six games, Cook is averaging over 170 combo yards per game. He also has scored at least one TD in every game except last week. Heck, even missing a game and a half to injury, he has more total TDs than any other player this season.

D’Andre Swift, Lions @ CAR ($6400 DK, $6900 FD)
The real Panthers’ run defense showed its true colors again last week allowing 192-1 to Ronald Jones. Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift has surpassed all of the other Detroit RBs, and arguably all of the other rookie RBs in the league too. In his first “official start” last week, Swift posted 149 combo yards and a score. Plus, he is being used both on the ground and through the air making him even more valuable.

Mike Davis, Panthers vs. DET ($6800 DK, $7400 FD)
In the same game, Mike Davis also has the chance to re-emerge as the discount Christian McCaffrey that he was earlier this year. His usage had been shaky the last few weeks while CMAC was out, but earlier this year he was looking like a system-RB. With Teddy Bridgewater likely to miss this game, I expect Will Grier or P.J. Walker to lean on Davis both on the ground and via the dump-off pass. He isn’t $4K this week, but he will still exceed 2X value. Especially since Detroit has allowed 789 combo yards and 11 total TDs to opposing RBs over the last four games.

DFS Sleepers

Antonio Gibson, Football Team vs. CIN ($5800 DK, $6500 FD)
I called both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic last week in the sleepers section. They both went off. This matchup is just as sweet for both of them. I’m favoring Gibson this week since Cincinnati has been more amenable to RBs rushing than through the air. On the season, the Bengals are allowing more than five yards per carry to opposing RBs, while allowing only four receptions per game (McKissic’s specialty) to the position.

Salvon Ahmed, Dolphins @ DEN ($4800 DK, $5600 FD)
I admit before Week 9 I had never heard of this man. Salvon Ahmed managed to pass the undead corpse of Jordan Howard, the never-healthy Matt Breida, and the all-hype Patrick Laird on the Dolphins’ back-up RB depth chart. That was not much of a  challenge. He looked serviceable last week, which is more than can be said for any of that other threesome. Obviously, when Myles Gaskin returns, Ahmed becomes a pumpkin again. Until then enjoy the ride against a Denver defense that has given up just under 300 total yards over their last two games to go along with five total TDs by opposing RBs.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Davante Adams	$8,600	$9,500
Julio Jones	$7,500	$8,100
Keenan Allen	$7,400	$8,000
Michael Thomas	$7,300	$8,200
A.J. Brown	$7,200	$7,500
Calvin Ridley	$7,000	$7,800
Terry McLaurin	$6,900	$7,300
JuJu Smith-Schuster	$6,400	$6,500
Adam Thielen	$6,300	$7,900
Will Fuller	$6,200	$7,100
Chase Claypool	$6,100	$6,400
Jamison Crowder	$6,100	$6,600
Justin Jefferson	$6,000	$6,700
Robby Anderson	$6,000	$6,300
Diontae Johnson	$5,900	$6,400
Tee Higgins	$5,900	$6,500
Kenny Golladay	$5,800	$7,000
Marquise Brown	$5,800	$5,900
DeVante Parker	$5,700	$6,200
DJ Chark	$5,700	$6,200
DJ Moore	$5,600	$7,100
Travis Fulgham	$5,600	$6,800
Tyler Boyd	$5,600	$6,600
Jarvis Landry	$5,500	$5,900
Marvin Jones	$5,500	$6,400
Amari Cooper	$5,400	$6,900
Jerry Jeudy	$5,300	$5,700
Brandin Cooks	$5,200	$6,100
Mike Williams	$5,100	$5,900
CeeDee Lamb	$5,000	$5,800
Emmanuel Sanders	$4,900	$5,600
Jakobi Meyers	$4,900	$6,000
Corey Davis	$4,800	$5,900
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	$4,800	$5,800
Tim Patrick	$4,800	$5,500
Curtis Samuel	$4,700	$5,600
Allen Lazard	$4,600	$5,500
Michael Pittman	$4,500	$5,500
Rashard Higgins	$4,500	$5,400
Willie Snead	$4,500	$5,200
Zach Pascal	$4,400	$5,300
Breshad Perriman	$4,300	$5,700
Jalen Reagor	$4,300	$5,600
T.Y. Hilton	$4,200	$5,400
Greg Ward	$4,000	$5,200
Russell Gage	$3,900	$5,100
Keelan Cole	$3,800	$5,300
Marvin Hall	$3,800	$5,100
Danny Amendola	$3,700	$5,200
Michael Gallup	$3,700	$5,400
A.J. Green	$3,600	$5,500
KJ Hamler	$3,600	$5,200
Laviska Shenault	$3,600	$5,000
N’Keal Harry	$3,600	$5,300
Randall Cobb	$3,600	$5,100
Damiere Byrd	$3,500	$5,300
Jakeem Grant	$3,500	$4,600
Cam Sims	$3,300	$5,000
Denzel Mims	$3,300	$5.400
Steven Sims	$3,000	$4,600

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas are the top two options this week. One of the two should be your WR1. Pivots from those two would be Terry McLaurin or JuJu Smith-Schuster. I also like both of the Falcons, but deciding which one will have the better game this week is tough. For WR2 I really like Jamison Crowder, Justin Jefferson, and perhaps my favorite play of the week Diontae Johnson. If you choose to throw big money at RB2, you could choose your top two WRs from this group. There are several cheaper WR3 options. I like both Eagles, Breshad Perriman, and Jakobi Meyers the most. If you need to drop into punt-range to save money here, I’d suggest Jakeem Grant or one of the Simses for the Football Team.

Fantasy Four Pack

Keenan Allen, Chargers vs. NYJ ($7400 DK, $8000 FD)
The Jets have struggled against both #1 WRs and possession-style WRs. Keenan Allen fits both of those descriptions. Allen has scored in four of his last five games. The one exception was when he went off for 10-125 against Jacksonville. Double-digit receptions, the century mark, and a score are all in play here.

Michael Thomas, Saints vs. ATL ($7300 DK, $8200 FD)
Michael Thomas failed in a nearly sure thing spot last week. I put the blame on the lack of practice snaps for Jameis Winston. Thomas was on the field quite a bit, he just didn’t see the target share that we expect when Drew Brees is under center. Only Seattle has allowed more receiving yards to opposing WRs. Bigger-bodied WRs have absolutely dominated Atlanta all season. We’ll see more of the same here.

Terry McLaurin, Football Team vs. CIN ($6900 DK, $7300 FD)
Terry McLaurin is still getting value pricing despite posting seven or more catches six times this year. He has been particularly on fire the last three weeks posting 21-300-2. Cincinnati has allowed a league-high seven WR touchdowns to go along with 660 WR receiving yards over the last four weeks, despite having their bye fall in that span. Most of that damage was done by WR1s, but secondary WRs have had success too, so if you need a punt play consider one of the Simses.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers @ JAX ($6400 DK, $6500 FD)
As lengthy as 2020 has been, it seems like years have passed since earlier this year when JuJu Smith-Schuster was not being targeted. Since Week 7, JuJu has seen a league third-high 42 targets. This has come despite the presence of James Washington, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool. He also trails only Davante Adams in receptions during that stretch. I mentioned up above about the Steelers game plan switch recently to throwing, throwing, and more throwing. This benefits all of Big Ben’s weapons. In five of their last six games, Jacksonville has allowed two or more WRs from each of their opponents to post big scores. One of those this week will be JuJu the other will be…

DFS Sleepers

Diontae Johnson, Steelers @ JAX ($5900 DK, $6400 FD)
…Diontae Johnson. Diontae has played only five full games this year thanks to a series of early year injuries. In those five games, he is averaging double-digit targets. That will give him an easy 7-75-1 here. There is a part of me that wants to Triple-stack Big Ben and both of his top two WRs. At the very least, make sure you have one of them in your lineup.

Jalen Reagor, Eagles @ CLE ($4300 DK, $5600 FD)
Over their last two games, Jalen Reagor leads all Eagles’ skill position players in targets and he is second in receptions and receiving yards. Part of that was tight coverage on Travis Fulgham, but in his case that comes with being a “WR1”. Cleveland has allowed multiple non-WR1s to post big games this year including Willie Snead, Dontrelle Inman, “The Other” Mike Thomas, Cee Dee Lamb, and Marcus Johnson. Reagor will be the next subordinate WR to post a big score against this defense. At this price, he is almost a must-play at WR3. He also should have lower ownership than Fulgham, who I like this week as well.

 

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Mark Andrews	$4,900	$6,500
Jonnu Smith	$4,700	$5,800
Hunter Henry	$4,600	$5,500
Noah Fant	$4,500	$5,700
Hayden Hurst	$4,400	$5,500
Mike Gesicki	$4,300	$5,300
T.J. Hockenson	$4,200	$6,000
Jared Cook	$4,100	$6,100
Eric Ebron	$4,000	$5,400
Austin Hooper	$3,900	$5,100
Dallas Goedert	$3,800	$5,800
Zach Ertz	$3,700	$6,000
Dalton Schultz	$3,600	$5,000
Richard Rodgers	$3,500	$5,000
Irv Smith	$3,400	$5,100
Logan Thomas	$3,300	$5,200
Kyle Rudolph	$3,200	$4,500
Taysom Hill	XXXX	$4,500
Robert Tonyan	$3,200	$5,600
Trey Burton	$3,100	$5,200
Darren Fells	$2,900	$5,000
Mo Alie-Cox	$2,900	$4,900
Drew Sample	$2,700	$4,600
Jack Doyle	$2,500	$4,700
Jordan Akins	$2,500	$4,900

Tight End

Weekly strategy – At Mark Andrews’ price on DK, it is hard to not see him as a value. The FD price is not quite as appealing but he still has potential for 3X based on the matchup. The safer and cheaper option would be Hunter Henry. Jared Cook also has a great DK price and matchup but a less appealing FD price. Cheaper options that I Like are Logan Thomas, Irv Smith, and Darren Fells. Robert Tonyan could also have an increase in value if Davante Adams cannot play. Worse than usual, the floor pricing at FD is higher than the top pricing on DK. If you don’t use the underpriced Henry, I’d recommend punting on FD with Taysom Hill. At Hill’s price, his floor is safe and he has a higher ceiling than anyone else.

Fantasy Four Pack

Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. DEN ($4900 DK, $6500 FD)
It really shows the state of the TE position this week when Mark Andrews is the highest-priced option at under $5K on DK. Even $6.5K on FD doesn’t seem too high. Andrews doesn’t have to worry about Nick Boyle vulturing him anymore. Despite the vultures, Andrews leads the Ravens in receiving TDs and receptions and is second in targets and receiving yards. Without Boyle for part of the game, Andrews finished with 7-61 on nine targets last week. Repeat that and add a TD and he blows away 3X.

Hunter Henry, Chargers vs. NYJ ($4600 DK, $5500 FD)
Hunter Henry hasn’t topped four catches nor 40 yards since Week 3. That said, he does have two TDs during that stretch. So why do I like him so much this week? He is facing a Jets’ defense that has allowed a league fourth-high six tight end scores despite facing only a couple of elite TEs. As underwhelming as Henry has been, he is more talented than seven of the nine top-TEs that New York has faced. A score is a lock here, and I like Henry to bump up to the 6-60 range in what I see as a shootout.

Jared Cook, Saints vs. ATL ($4100 DK, $6100 FD)
Much like Henry, Jared Cook has been rotten the last two games since Michael Thomas returned. Still, before that, he had scored in three straight games and four of five. He remains a huge target for Jameis Winston in the red zone, and at this price on DK, he can hit 3X with a pair of catches and a score. Obviously, the FD price is high based on his possible floor, but Atlanta has allowed the most TE touchdowns, and the second-most TE receptions and receiving yards.

Jonnu Smith, Titans @ BAL ($4700 DK, $5800 FD)
Jonnu Smith joins the list of disappointing TEs in the top-4 this week. In Smith’s defense, he at least has scored in both of the last two weeks. He also leads all TEs in total touchdowns for the year. Yes, Jonnu has more TDs than either George Kittle or Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews or T.J. Hockenson. With so few good selections to choose from this week, you may just want to go with one that is TD-dependent. The Ravens have given up a few TE scores to TD-dependent guys this year and quality TEs like Kelce have put up decent overall lines against them as well.

DFS Sleepers

Logan Thomas, Football Team vs. CIN ($3300 DK, $5200 FD)
Logan Thomas is tied with Terry McLaurin for the Washington Football Team lead with three receiving scores. He also ranks third on the team in both targets and receptions and second in receiving yards. Meanwhile, Cincy has allowed big games to three of the last five TE groups they have faced. I’m going to have a hard time deciding who to fade for Washington this week.

Taysom Hill, Saints vs. ATL ($XXXX DK, $4500 FD)
Obviously, you are not starting Taysom Hill on DK at QB. That said, it will be nearly impossible to not start Hill on FD at TE. First off, his price is lower than virtually everyone else. We know he will have at the minimum his gadget play snaps, which have accounted for RB3/4 numbers the last couple of weeks. We also know that the team is not shy about bringing him in to play QB in the red zone. The rub here will come if Jameis Winston gets hurt or gets picked off three times in the first quarter (which could happen). If that occurs, then you get QB-level statistical production out of your bargain-basement TE.

[lawrence-newsletter]

We made it to Week 10. Part of me is surprised that the season hasn’t been completed unraveled due to this pandemic. Fortunately, the league and the players association have been flexible in their handling of positive tests. There still have been some ridiculous things like the Green Bay vs. San Fran game from last Thursday that should have never happened. As of now, there aren’t any planned changes in the schedule for this week but keep tuned in just in case.

 

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots

When the schedule makers drew this one up, they probably were expecting a battle of one of the most electrifying young QBs in the game going up against one of the best defenses in football.  Well, Lamar Jackson has not lived up to his high-end billing and the Patriots’ defense just did everything in their power to try and lose a game to Joe Flacco. This alone should give you hope that Jackson might do something this week. Considering the lack of QB talent on the rest of this slate, he actually gets top billing here, just don’t expect the world. Cam Newton’s receiving corps is almost as deep as the group San Francisco suited up last Thursday. Still, just like Jackson, Newton can make hey with his feet in the red zone keeping his value high. Baltimore’s defense is very good, so I’ll not rank Newton higher than QB2 here, but don’t be surprised if he finishes with the fewest points among any of the four QBs on this slate.

Mark Ingram could return this week, but it would almost be better for Baltimore RB fantasy owners if he just didn’t come back this year. His return will only further murky the waters of value for J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. With all three active, none is better than a FLEX play. It’s too bad because New England can be beaten on the ground. If Ingram sits, I like Edwards to score a TD and Dobbins to catch five or six passes while rolling up 60-70 yards. Still, I doubt I would use either as anything more than FLEX. IF the Baltimore RB group is murky water, then the New England one is straight-up road tar. Damien Harris injured his chest on Monday night and it appeared that he knocked himself unconscious too. I have a hard time believing he will play this week. Baltimore has an elite level run defense, so he wouldn’t have been a great play anyways. James White may be the better play as the Ravens can give up some yards through the air to opposing backs. Even with lesser usage this season, he still makes a decent FLEX play here. Still, Rex Burkhead may be the best play of all for the Patriots’ run group as he can do both ground and pound and catch the ball and run. I’d actually list hin as my choice for RB2 or RB3 on this slate. Of course, the whole situation could get even muddier if Harris plays or if Sony Michel manages to return this week. If that happens just fade the lot of them.

If no one told you that Dez Bryant was active for the Ravens last week would you have known? I’ll wait until he actually shows up on a stat sheet before considering him. Marquise Brown tried to be a squeaky wheel, but he hasn’t gotten any oil over the last two games. This week, he could have value, especially if Stephon Gilmore is out again. At worst, he is WR5 on this slate. I could see using Willie Snead at WR3 to save some money, but his ceiling is very low. Miles Boykin has an even lower ceiling. Jakobi Meyers absolutely blew-up on MNF against the Jets. This week will be much tougher. Only two teams have allowed fewer WR touchdowns than Baltimore. They have given up some yardage (and most of it has come to larger physical receivers like Meyers so he is in play, just don’t count on a score. I would rank him as WR3 on the board here and I’ll certainly use him some this week. Damiere Byrd was second in targets for NE last week, but against a tough pass defense neither him nor Gunner Olszewski should be used outside of Showdown slates. If healthy, N’Keal Harry could receive some FLEX love. His being healthy is always a stretch though.

Over the last three weeks, Nick Boyle has actually outproduced Mark Andrews. New England is beyond the elite against the TE position, so the name alone won’t save his role here. In fact, his name alone may drive his salary off of the playable list. Just don’t waste your time with Boyle either. Ryan Izzo is supposedly the top TE for New England. He didn’t even net a target against one of the worst defenses against TEs last week. Don’t get cute here. New England’s defense couldn’t stymy the immobile corpse of Joe Flacco, they have zero chance of intimidating Lamar Jackson. Leave them on the bench. Baltimore’s defense is in play but I like the Monday night options slightly better.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Kirk Cousins against a stingy Bears’ pass defense is not a smooth play. That said, he has the weapons on offense to produce a 230-2 floor, which may be the second-best line on the slate. More likely, Cousins finishes as QB3. Nick Foles has a much easier row to hoe throwing against the inexperienced Vikings’ secondary. That said, the young-uns are starting to gel there thanks to Mike Zimmer’s coaching. Plus, this is Nick Foles we are talking about. He doesn’t exactly scare anyone. Fortunately for Foles, he has Allen Robinson and Jimmy Graham to do some damage. This should secure him QB2 on this slate, but not by much.

Dalvin Cook is the best active RB in football right now. Meanwhile, Chicago’s run defense is nowhere near as good as you think it is. Cook won’t have 200 total yards this week, but he’ll still easily top 100 yards. This means he is RB1 on this slate and it isn’t close. Lamar Jackson is the only athlete who might finish with more total yards than him here – and HE ISN’T A RB! Alexander Mattison won’t play enough to be valuable here. David Montgomery is recovering from a concussion. He gets an extra day to get healthy, but it is no guarantee that he plays. If Montgomery plays, he is the definite RB2 on the slate. If he doesn’t play Ryan Nall becomes at worst RB3 on the slate and a near-must start.

Allen Robinson versus the inexperienced Vikings’ pass defense is the clear WR1 here. Both, Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller are starting to see more targets. Either could be used as WR3. Cordarelle Patterson could also be used out of the backfield and as a WR in a revenge game script. I like him as a possible punt-FLEX. In general, WRs have not done much this year against Chicago. The ones that have had success are bigger outside guys. That role has fallen onto Justin Jefferson of late. Still, Adam Thielen can take a pass from anywhere to the house, and he remains a red zone threat despite not scoring the last weeks. One of these two should be your WR2. My money is on Jefferson. The Minnesota WR relevance depth chart ends at this point.

Cole Kmet returned last week. Minnesota gives up a ton of yards to the TE position, but they have been stingy allowing only three scores all year.  Jimmy Graham is the safer play and the TE1 on this docket as he has scored five times this season and he has produced a few solid games against Minnesota over his career. For Minnesota, Irv Smith has finally started to be used in the red zone. It was only a matter of time before he inherited this role from veteran Kyle Rudolph. Chicago has struggled mightily against the position, especially in the red zone. So either one might score here. Considering the price difference between them and Graham/Andrews, I’d rather take the flyer on Rudolph or Irv. Chicago’s defense should cause Kirk Cousins to make a few mistakes and Nick Foles should cause himself to make a few mistakes, so either defense is a good play here. That said, I favor Chicago because they are more proven.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $8K for Kyler Murray. $7.1K for Aaron Jones. $4.9K for J.D. McKissic or $4K for Mike Davis if Christian McCaffrey doesn’t play. $7.4K for Michael Thomas. $5.7K for Christian Kirk. $3.5K for Josh Reynolds. $3.5K for Jordan Reed or $4.4K for Eric Ebron if you use Davis instead of McKissic. $6.9K for James Conner at FLEX. $2.6K for the Lions’ defense.

At FD: $7.4K for Jared Goff. $8.8K for Jones. $5.4K for Davis (if no CMAC) or $5.8K for Duke Johnson. $9.5K for Davante Adams. $8.5K for Thomas. $5K for Reynolds. $5K for Reed or $4.6K for Greg Olsen or $4.5K for Gerald Everett. $5.3K for McKissic at FLEX. $4.8K for the Lions’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Murray, Goff at SF, Jones, McKissic, Thomas, Robert Woods, Kirk, Reed, and James Conner at FLEX.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Kyler Murray	$8,000	$8,800
Aaron Rodgers	$7,900	$8,400
Russell Wilson	$7,700	$8,900
Josh Allen	$7,500	$8,700
Deshaun Watson	$6,900	$8,300
Justin Herbert	$6,600	$8,000
Jared Goff	$6,500	$7,400
Drew Brees	$6,400	$7,600
Tom Brady	$6,300	$7,800
Ben Roethlisberger	$6,200	$7,400
Teddy Bridgewater	$6,100	$7,000
Baker Mayfield	$6,000	$7,000
Carson Wentz	$5,900	$7,500
Matthew Stafford	$5,800	$7,300
Joe Burrow	$5,700	$7,200
Tua Tagovailoa	$5,600	$6,800
Drew Lock	$5,500	$7,100
Derek Carr	$5,400	$6,900
Jake Luton	$5,400	$6,700
Nick Mullens	$5,300	$6,600
Alex Smith	$5,200	$6,500
Daniel Jones	$5,200	$6,700
Chase Daniel	$5,000	$6,000

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – I normally hate spending up for my QB. That said, with so many premium options here it will be hard to say no. Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson are the safest plays of the week. Aaron Rodgers should be right in the mix as well, but the game script could limit his final stats. Considering that Jared Goff’s price is so low, it will also be tough not to choose to use him. Teddy Bridgewater would be an interesting pivot from any of them as would Ben Roethlisberger (If he clears the COVID protocols). There are also several cheaper options that I like such as Tua Tagovailoa, Drew Lock, and Nick Mullens.

 

Fantasy Four Pack

Kyler Murray, Cardinals vs. BUF ($8000 DK, $8800 FD)
Last week, I was wrong about Kyler Murray. I feel he really proved that he is matchup proof. Buffalo is not a pushover, but they have given up a few points to opposing QBs this season. They have also faced a few QBs that could move around, but they have not faced a rushing QB as explosive as Murray. Kyler will post three total scores en route to a near 30 point fantasy afternoon. Giving him the safest floor among the higher-priced options.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. JAX ($7900 DK, $8400 FD)
Aaron Rodgers has perhaps the easiest matchup among the high-priced options this week. This may actually hurt Rodgers’ chances at a huge week. We also know that Rodgers won’t be affected by any potential weather in Green Bay this weekend. What we don’t know is whether or not Jake Luton will keep this game competitive. If things go south fast for the Jacksonville signal-caller, this game may become the Aaron Jones show fast. All of that said, Rodgers is still a stud QB facing a below-average defense. That alone should be worthy of nearly 3X value.

Deshaun Watson, Texans @ CLE ($6900 DK, $8300 FD)
Deshaun Watson also has an easy matchup this week. Cleveland is ninth in passing yards allowed per game and seventh in passing TDs allowed per game. Deshaun is also working on a string of six straight multiple score games and he has topped 25 rushing yards in each of his last four contests. Coming off of the bye, Cleveland should be able to post some points against a so-so Houston secondary. This will keep the game script in a pass-forward mode putting all pieces of both offenses in play. I particularly like the Watson-Cooks-Fells stack, with a run it back of Rashad Higgins.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks @ LAR ($7700 DK, $8900 FD)
Much like Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson continues to produce outlandish numbers even in tougher matchups. This may be the toughest matchup of the season for Wilson on the road in Los Angeles against Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and Company – who are coming off of a bye to prepare. Still, Russell has one game this year with fewer than three total TDs. Meanwhile, in three home games, the Rams have allowed a total of ONE passing touchdown and a league-low 12 points per game. Wilson will damage these stat trends this week but expect a floor game out of him. I almost prefer the upside of Jared Goff in this contest instead.

DFS Sleepers

Drew Lock, Broncos @ LV ($5500 DK, $7100 FD)
Drew Lock gets sleeper status with me for a second-straight week. Ignoring the windstorm game against Cleveland two weeks ago, Las Vegas is allowing an average of 331-2.5 through the air to opposing QBs, since Week 4. Plus, three of the last five QBs to face them have rushing TDs as well. Meanwhile, Lock has five passing TDs over his last two starts and two rushing TDs over the last three games. Another three total scores are in the works here as well.

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs. LAC ($5600 DK, $6800 FD)
So far we have seen two victories for Tua Tagovailoa. One of them was an awful statistical performance, the other was an average performance. Fortunately for Tua, those two games came against an elite pass defense and an above-average one. The Chargers’ pass defense is below-average at best. One-Touchdown-Teddy (Bridgewater) is the only QB to not account for multiple TDs against this defense. That means that Tua should post a pair of scores as a floor.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey	$9,000	$9,700
Alvin Kamara	$8,200	$9,000
Aaron Jones	$7,100	$8,800
James Conner	$6,900	$7,600
Nick Chubb	$6,800	$8,200
Kareem Hunt	$6,700	$7,500
James Robinson	$6,600	$7,300
Josh Jacobs	$6,500	$7,500
Miles Sanders	$6,400	$7,700
Chase Edmonds	$6,300	$7,100
Chris Carson	$6,200	$7,800
Joe Mixon	$6,100	$7,000
Boston Scott	$6,000	$5,900
Darrell Henderson	$5,900	$5,800
Raheem Mostert	$5,700	$6,800
Antonio Gibson	$5,600	$6,100
Jerick McKinnon	$5,600	$5,500
Leonard Fournette	$5,500	$6,400
David Johnson	$5,400	$6,300
Giovani Bernard	$5,400	$6,200
Ronald Jones	$5,300	$6,400
Melvin Gordon	$5,200	$6,600
Zack Moss	$5,200	$5,800
D’Andre Swift	$5,100	$6,000
DeeJay Dallas	$5,100	$5,600
Duke Johnson	$5,000	$5,800
Kalen Ballage	$5,000	$5,300
Phillip Lindsay	$5,000	$5,900
J.D. McKissic	$4,900	$5,300
Kenyan Drake	$4,900	$6,000
JaMycal Hasty	$4,800	$5,100
Justin Jackson	$4,700	$5,500
Malcolm Brown	$4,700	$5,500
Devonta Freeman	$4,600	$5,400
Carlos Hyde	$4,500	$5,500
Wayne Gallman	$4,500	$5,700
Joshua Kelley	$4,400	$5,200
Devin Singletary	$4,300	$5,600
Cam Akers	$4,200	$5,100
Jordan Howard	$4,200	$5,200
DeAndre Washington	$4,100	$4,500
Adrian Peterson	$4,000	$5,200
Devontae Booker	$4,000	$5,200
Jamaal Williams	$4,000	$5,600
Latavius Murray	$4,000	$5,000
Matt Breida	$4,000	$4,600
Mike Davis	$4,000	$5,400

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Aaron Jones has the blow-up seat this week against Jacksonville. He and James Conner are the easy 1-2 combo up top. Rostering both of them should be attainable if you spend down at QB. James Robinson is a potential pivot, as is Kareem Hunt (if Nick Chubb is out), or Miles Sanders (if he plays).  Either way, try to roster two of that fivesome. Outside of that group, Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic are both studly options at FLEX. I also like the Tampa Bay duo and D’Andre Swift. There are a few possible punt plays. Whoever starts for Miami, Mike Davis, or Duke Johnson in volume roles, and Adrian Peterson in the revenge game.

Fantasy Four Pack

Aaron Jones, Packers vs. JAX ($7100 DK, $8800 FD)
Jacksonville is allowing over 140 combo yards per game to opposing backs and more than one RB touchdown per game. Aaron Jones played most of the snaps last Thursday despite not being 100%, he will be back to full health here and the game script will be right for him to blow-up for 150-2.

James Conner, Steelers vs. CIN ($6900 DK, $7600 FD)
James Conner was left out to dry last week as Pittsburgh decided to go five-wide virtually the entire game. Against the Cowboys, this was the most absurd strategy that Mike Tomlin has ever come up with. I expected after the game that the Scooby-Doo gang was going to come up to the podium and unmask Tomlin as Adam Gase. Amazingly, Tomlin survived that brain fart, so I doubt he screws up again like that this week. Cincinnati is actually worse again the run than Dallas, so Conner has no reason to not top 125-1 here.

James Robinson, Jaguars @ GB ($6600 DK, $7300 FD)
The presence of Jake Luton did not affect the running game value of James Robinson last week. What perhaps should concern you is that Chris Thompson had all of these RB targets last week. As long as Luton can keep this game close (no guarantee), he should lean on Robinson to run the ball against a Packers’ defense that is allowing nearly 150 combo yards per game to opposing RBs. Robinson has also scored in five of eight contests and he has four total TDs over the last three games. This sets up nicely as Green Bay has allowed the league-worst 15 total TDs to the position.

Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. SF ($8200 DK, $9000 FD)
I really don’t care for Alvin Kamara in this matchup as the San Francisco 49ers have been beasts against opposing backs. Still, this is Alvin Kamara. he can always do damage with swing passes and he has a nose for the end zone. I mean, he is averaging 7.5 catches per game and one total TD per game. That sort of production should guarantee him a top-5 final point count most weeks. Even if the matchup is subpar. Needless to say, I won’t have much exposure to him, but this could make him a sneaky play, in a game that could feature some higher scoring

DFS Sleepers

Mike Davis, Panthers vs. TB ($4000 DK, $5400 FD)
This is not a great matchup on paper, but if Christian McCaffrey misses this game, as is expected, then Mike Davis gets to return the featured role that he ate at earlier this year. Even if Davis cannot get going on the ground against this stingy run defense, he should approach double-digit targets and receptions. At this ridiculously low price, if he gets in the end zone he will break the slate. This is one of those chalk plays that you cannot avoid and still expect to cash.

J.D. McKissic, Redskins @ DET ($4900 DK, $5300 FD)
I love both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic this week. Each will produce 3X against a run defense that is still licking its wounds from last week. I’ve decided I prefer McKissic here since he is Alex Smith’s apparent binky. In the two games that Smith has played significant snaps, McKissic has 22 targets. 15 receptions, and 111 receiving yards. In both of those games, he led the team in targets and receptions. Gibson is the better bet to score here but use either as often as you can.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Davante Adams	$9,000	$9,500
DeAndre Hopkins	$7,700	$8,600
DK Metcalf	$7,600	$8,300
Stefon Diggs	$7,500	$7,900
Michael Thomas	$7,400	$8,500
Keenan Allen	$7,100	$7,800
Cooper Kupp	$6,900	$7,700
Terry McLaurin	$6,800	$7,000
Will Fuller	$6,700	$7,100
Robert Woods	$6,600	$7,200
Tyler Lockett	$6,500	$7,400
Travis Fulgham	$6,400	$6,800
Tyler Boyd	$6,400	$6,700
Mike Evans	$6,300	$7,300
DJ Chark	$6,200	$6,600
JuJu Smith-Schuster	$6,100	$6,400
Robby Anderson	$6,100	$6,400
Chris Godwin	$6,000	$7,500
Jarvis Landry	$5,900	$6,000
Antonio Brown	$5,800	$6,500
Chase Claypool	$5,800	$6,100
Brandon Aiyuk	$5,700	$6,500
Brandin Cooks	$5,600	$6,300
Jerry Jeudy	$5,600	$5,800
Tee Higgins	$5,500	$6,100
Deebo Samuel	$5,400	$6,000
Mike Williams	$5,400	$5,900
John Brown	$5,300	$5,600
Diontae Johnson	$5,200	$5,700
Marvin Jones	$5,200	$6,200
DJ Moore	$5,100	$6,900
DeVante Parker	$5,000	$6,000
Sterling Shepard	$5,000	$5,500
Curtis Samuel	$4,900	$5,700
Nelson Agholor	$4,900	$5,100
Tim Patrick	$4,900	$5,500
Darius Slayton	$4,800	$5,900
Emmanuel Sanders	$4,800	$5,800
Cole Beasley	$4,700	$5,400
Rashard Higgins	$4,600	$5,500
Henry Ruggs	$4,500	$5,600
A.J. Green	$4,400	$5,600
Kendrick Bourne	$4,400	$5,400
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	$4,400	$5,500
Hunter Renfrow	$4,200	$4,900
Jalen Reagor	$4,200	$5,600
Allen Lazard	$4,000	$5,700
Alshon Jeffery	$4,000	$4,800
Randall Cobb	$4,000	$5,100
Richie James	$4,000	$5,400
Danny Amendola	$3,900	$5,200
Larry Fitzgerald	$3,900	$5,000
Greg Ward	$3,800	$5,100
KJ Hamler	$3,800	$5,200
Laviska Shenault	$3,800	$5,200
Donovan Peoples-Jones	$3,700	$5,200
Golden Tate	$3,600	$5,300
Josh Reynolds	$3,500	$5.000
Marvin Hall	$3,500	$4,600
David Moore	$3,400	$5,300
Keelan Cole	$3,400	$5,100
Cam Sims	$3,200	$4,900
Austin Mack	$3,000	$4,900
Chris Conley	$3,000	$4,800
James Washington	$3,000	$5,100
Mack Hollins	$3,000	$4.800
Quintez Cephus	$3,000	$4,600
Steven Sims	$3,000	$4,600

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – I don’t mind the idea of paying up for Davante Adams. I just know it will be hard to fit him under the cap. Especially since you can nab Cooper Kupp or Michael Thomas for a lot less. I see Will Fuller as a pivot (although I will probably opt for his running mate Brandin Cooks at WR2 instead). The other WR2 options that I really like are JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jerry Jeudy, Christian Kirk, and Diontae Johnson.  As for WR3, I really love Curtis Samuel this week. DeVante Parker could be worth using with Preston Williams out. Rashard Higgins could be a high volume play this week and Jalen Reagor could be a sneaky play with Travis Fulgham locked up against James Bradberry. There are also a couple of punt-plays that I really love,  Josh Reynolds and Mack Hollins. Reynolds is a great WR3 option in the stack with Jared Goff if you don’t use Cooper Kupp at WR!

Fantasy Four Pack

Michael Thomas, Saints vs. SF ($7400 DK, $8500 FD)
Over their last six games, every WR1 except Jakobi Meyers has scored at least one TD against this defense. This includes 22-344-3 in the last two weeks against Davante Adams and DK Metcalf. Michael Thomas is certainly in their wheelhouse talent-wise. Thomas is fully healthy now and it is hard to run against SF, so expect New Orleans to use short passes to both Thomas and Alvin Kamara in lieu of running the ball.

Davante Adams, Packers vs. JAX ($9000 DK, $9500 FD)
Against a weak defense like Jacksonville, Davante Adams will score and will top 100 yards. Unfortunately, he has been given CMAC pricing. At this cost, you are praying he meets 3X rather than counting on it. In a game that Green Bay could jump out to a big lead, we might not see a ton of Adams in the second half as Green Bay drains the clock with Aaron Jones.

Cooper Kupp, Rams vs. SEA ($6900 DK, $7700 FD)
All Cooper Kupp did in Week 8 was haul in 11 of 20 targets for 110 yards. That was despite facing a team with two of the top CBs in football. This week he faces a defense that is allowing 22 receptions and 280 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs. Not to the entire offense – TO JUST THE WRs! They’ve also given up 13 WR touchdowns. Robert Woods is also in play as is Josh Reynolds. If you don’t use Kupp, please use Reynolds at WR3.

Terry McLaurin, Football Team @ DET ($6800 DK, $7000 FD)
I’ve doubted Terry McLaurin on a couple of occasions this season. I was wrong. Only once in his last seven games has McLaurin not finished with at least 70 yards and/or a score. The QB change last week didn’t limit Terry’s usage as he still led the team in receiving yards.

DFS Sleepers

Brandin Cooks, Texans @ CLE ($5600 DK, $6300 FD)
Since Week 5, Brandin Cooks leads Will Fuller in receptions, targets, and receiving yards. The only category Fuller leads Cooks in is TDs. Still, Brandin has scored in three of those four contests. Cleveland has allowed the fifth-most WR touchdowns this season, including five in their last three games. I like both Fuller and Cooks this week, but once again Cooks is cheaper, making him easier to roster.

Curtis Samuel, Panthers vs. TB ($4900 DK, $5700 FD)
Curtis Samuel has been used both in the passing game and running game for Carolina. With Christian McCaffrey likely out, Samuel should go back to his change-of-pace role behind Mike Davis. This role gave him back-to-back scores on the ground in Weeks 7 and 8. Pair that with the two air scores that Samuel has locked up the last two weeks, makes him a safe play even with “One-Touchdown” Teddy throwing him the ball. Plus, over their last five meetings, Samuel has scored four TDs and he is averaging 73 total yards per game against the Bucs.

 

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Darren Waller	$5,900	$7,000
T.J. Hockenson	$5,100	$6,200
Noah Fant	$4,900	$5,700
Rob Gronkowski	$4,700	$6,100
Jared Cook	$4,600	$6,000
Evan Engram	$4,500	$5,600
Eric Ebron	$4,400	$5,400
Mike Gesicki	$4,300	$5,300
Dallas Goedert	$4,200	$5,800
Hunter Henry	$4,100	$5,500
Austin Hooper	$3,900	$5,100
Ross Dwelley	$3,800	$5,000
Tyler Higbee	$3,700	$5,200
Robert Tonyan	$3,600	$5,700
Jordan Reed	$3,500	$5,700
Darren Fells	$3,400	$5,000
Logan Thomas	$3,300	$4,900
David Njoku	$3,200	$4,800
Gerald Everett	$3,100	$4,500
Harrison Bryant	$3,000	$4,800
Tyler Kroft	$3,000	$4,700
Jordan Akins	$2,900	$4,900
Drew Sample	$2,700	$4,400
Tyler Eifert	$2,700	$4,600
Donald Parham	$2,500	$4,400
Greg Olsen	$2,500	$4,600
Jesse James	$2,500	$4,300

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Darren Waller at his DK price is very good, but his FD price is not a bargain. Both T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant are in play, and each costs less than Waller. Still, Eric Ebron makes the best play of the week based on pricepoint. To save a little consider using one of the Niners or Darren Fells. I will also have extensive exposure to Logan Thomas. There isn’t a punt play that I love, but I don’t mind TD-chasing with Donald Parham.

Fantasy Four Pack

Darren Waller, Raiders vs. DEN ($5900 DK, $7000 FD)
Denver can be beaten by opposing TEs. Still, they haven’t given up many TDs to the position. Nevertheless, this game projects as a shootout. That bodes well for Darren Waller since he has twice as many targets and nearly twice as many receptions as his next closest teammate. Waller has also scored in three of his last four games.

T.J. Hockenson, Lions vs. WAS ($5100 DK, $6200 FD)
T.J. Hockenson has scored and/or topped 50 receiving yards in every game this season. This includes TDs in four of his last five games. Meanwhile, Washington is elite against opposing WRs (especially outside WRs), but only two teams have allowed more TE touchdowns. So the strategy for Matthew Stafford should be to throw over the middle to Hockenson and Danny Amendola. Still, keep an eye on Hockenson’s practice status Friday, as he didn’t practice Thursday due to a new toe issue. If he doesn’t play, Jesse James could see some of this thunder at a rock-bottom price.

Noah Fant, Broncos @ LV ($4900 DK, $5700 FD)
As I mentioned above with Waller, this game should be a sneaky shootout, that may fly under the radar. Noah Fant has played through a couple of injuries in the last few weeks, but he is still posting effective stats. Every quality TE that Vegas has faced, except Hunter Henry, has scored against them. With recent-vulture, Albert Okwuegbunam out for the year, Fant will get back in the end zone this week.

Eric Ebron, Steelers vs. CIN ($4400 DK, $5400 FD)
Cincinnati has allowed the third-most receiving yards and TDs to opposing TEs. This includes five scores given up over their last three games. Eric Ebron has scored in back-to-back games and a third straight seems like a lock, especially since Vance McDonald has been ruled out due to COVID.

DFS Sleepers

Logan Thomas, Football Team @ DET ($3300 DK, $4900 FD)
Detroit has given up four TE scores over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, former Lion (revenge game anyone?), Logan Thomas has scored in two of his last three games. Plus, he is playing more frequently lined up as both a WR and TE, so he should see a fair amount of opportunities here.

Jordan Reed, Niners @ NO ($3500 DK, $5700 FD)
Jordan Reed was playing on a snap count last week coming off of the IR. This week, he should be free to run a full game script. In weeks 2 and 3 (while George Kittle was out), Reed combined for 9-73-2. He will still split TE targets with Ross Dwelley, but at $3.5K, his price is cheaper than that of Dwelley on DK. Of course, Dwelley is cheaper on FD, so on that site consider him instead. New Orleans has played the position much better recently, but they did give up six scores to opposing TEs over their first five games.

[lawrence-newsletter]

We have already had some COVID infections affecting our Thursday night lineups this week. In addition, there are sprinkles of COVID throughout our Sunday lineups. Perhaps the scariest threat stemming from the disease would have been Ben Dinucci having to face Pittsburgh. Fortunately, it sounds like he won’t sniff the field in that game. I guess we can at least applaud that we won’t be losing any potential starters in the Monday night game.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Drew Brees may finally get back Michael Thomas this week. It is long overdue and I’m sure Brees will be happy to have him after having his top three WRs out last week. Tampa Bay is much easier to beat through the air than on the ground, so I’ll give Brees the QB2 slot this week. QB1 is of course reserved for Tom Brady, who also gets a stud WR back this week in the form of Antonio Brown. The difference being that Brady has other high-end weapons to work with too (including a possible early return for Chris Godwin – possible but not likely).

Alvin Kamara has a tough matchup this week, but with the lack of talent at the position on this slate, he is still RB1. It helps that Tampa can be beaten by pass-catching backs. I’m not looking deep enough to use Latavius Murray though. Ronald Jones has gotten benched for parts of each of his last two games due to fumbles. He also has ceded the pass-catching downs to Leonard Fournette. The Saints are actually tougher against the run than Tampa, so neither excite me, but again with such a lack of talent here neither is worse than RB4. I could see using one of them as RB2, but I am likely saving FLEX for a WR.

Michael Thomas is due back this week, Emmanuel Sanders is likely back this week. Marquez Callaway returning is also a possibility. Thomas is a must-start and even rusty he is no lower than WR2. Sanders could be used, but he wasn’t used regularly when Thomas was in or out earlier this year – I’ll pass. Callaway is a possible sneaky punt-FLEX to save money (assuming he plays). Don’t even consider Tre’Quan Smith or Deonte Harris, neither will get enough targets to find value. Tom Brady will have all the incentive in the world to get Antonio Brown the ball early and often. On this slate, he should be WR2/3 overall. I’m concerned about Mike Evans’s lack of usage recently. I’m also concerned that he might see the shadow of Marshon Lattimore. Evans is always a TD threat (as was proven on MNF), but his price is often too high for reliable usage. A returning Chris Godwin feels like more of a detraction from Brown than Evans, but if he is out there, I feel it will be as a decoy. Frankly, I’d rather pay up and play Evans than pay up and play a gimpy Godwin. Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson once again slide into semi-obscurity if Godwin plays. I would maybe consider Miller as a punt-FLEX, but you shouldn’t have to.

Jared Cook gets a decent matchup, but with all of the WRs returning, he becomes much more TD-dependent than I prefer. He is still TE2 here, but that isn’t saying much. Taysom Hill gets TE-qualification in some formats, his usage is also sporadic, but at his price, he can reach 3x easily. He should be the fourth option on this slate at TE when he qualifies. Rob Gronkowski is head-and-shoulders TE1 here, and it isn’t close. I even almost like Cameron Brate more than Cook here. I’ll slide Brate in at TE3, just because he doesn’t get quite as much usage. Neither of these defenses should sniff your lineup card.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

• For the betterment of the league, we should all hope this game is FLEXED off of MNF. It won’t be, but it should.

Cam Newton faces the “we don’t care anymore Jets” but he still is no better than QB3 here since he has no one to throw to. Sam Darnold is hurt and facing a solid Patriots defense. Neither he nor Joe Flacco should be on your roster. They both are so awful, that Taysom Hill when he is QB-eligible is a better start than either of them here.

Damien Harris has boosted his stock following his second 100-yard game of the season. He also scored last week, putting him in RB2 consideration. Just know that Harris is a pariah in the passing game. At the very least, consider using Harris at FLEX. You can also consider James White in that role as he is the most consistent pass-catcher for Cam to throw to. Rex Burkhead is nothing more than a punt-FLEX play here that will only have value if Harris gets Belichick’ed during the game. The Patriots have actually been rotten against the run of late. That said, do you really trust Frank Gore or Lamical Perine with your financial wellbeing. Either could be used in Showdown mode, but neither is more than a punt-FLEX on the main slate.

Julian Edelman is out. N’Keal Harry is still in the concussion protocol from last week. The extra days may get him free for MNF, and he is needed. I’m still not counting on him as any more than a WR3. Jakobi Meyers has looked good filling in as this teams’ WR1, and against the Jets, I actually like him as a WR3 with upside. I used to like Damiere Byrd, but in a featured role, he is not ready for primetime. He is no more than the bottom of the FLEX-worthy barrel.  If Jamison Crowder returns for this game, he instantly becomes the lock at WR3 on the entire slate. If he doesn’t play, Braxton Berrios is also in consideration for your WR3 slot. Breshad Perriman missed last week with a concussion. Much like Harry, he gets the benefit of an extra day to recover. Based on volume alone, he could be worth using at FLEX. Denzel Mims is going to be a star – next year. I’ll pass on him here. If Darnold plays, then maybe Mims or Jeff Smith might have some deep punt-value. If Flacco plays, they stand no chance in hell.

If you play Chris Herndon or Ryan Izzo, you might as well just light your funds on fire. These will however be the two defenses that you choose from. The Patriots will be the chalk, so consider the Jets instead. Unless Flacco plays, then set the Pats and forget about it.

 

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $5.2K for Drew Lock. $8.2K for Dalvin Cook. $6.9K for James Conner. $7.4K for Stefon Diggs. $5.5K for Brandin Cooks. $3.7K for Danny Amendola (or Marvin Hall or Quintez Cephus). $4.6K for Noah Fant. $4.9K for Justin Jackson at FLEX. $3.1K for the Texans’ defense.

At FD: $8.3K for Deshaun Watson. $9.3K for Cook. $8.2K for Conner. $7.6K for Diggs. $6.1K for Cooks. $5.1K for Hunter Renfrow. $5.8K for Fant. $5.9K for J. Jackson at FLEX. $3.7K for the Texans’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Josh Allen or Watson, Lock at SF, Cook, Conner, Diggs, Will Fuller, Marvin Jones, Fant, and David Johnson at FLEX.

 

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes	$8,100	$9,300
Kyler Murray	$7,800	$8,600
Russell Wilson	$7,600	$9,000
Deshaun Watson	$7,100	$8,300
Josh Allen	$7,000	$8,200
Lamar Jackson	$6,900	$8,100
Justin Herbert	$6,800	$7,900
Matthew Stafford	$6,600	$7,500
Ben Roethlisberger	$6,500	$7,700
Matt Ryan	$6,400	$7,600
Ryan Tannehill	$6,300	$7,400
Kirk Cousins	$6,200	$7,100
Teddy Bridgewater	$6,000	$7,300
Derek Carr	$5,700	$7,000
Philip Rivers	$5,600	$6,900
Nick Foles	$5,500	$6,800
Tua Tagovailoa	$5,500	$6,700
Daniel Jones	$5,400	$6,900
Kyle Allen	$5,300	$6,800
Drew Lock	$5,200	$7,200
Jake Luton	$4,900	$6,500
Ben Dinucci	$4,800	$6,600
Garrett Gilbert	$4,800	$6,300
Cooper Rush	$4,800	$6,000
Chase Daniel	$4,000	$6,000
David Blough	$4,000	$6,000

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – I have reasons to avoid each of the top-three priced QBs this week. The biggest reason for avoiding all of them is that the two players priced directly below them are likely to outperform each of them. Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen should be option A and option A1 this week. If you pivot from them Matthew Stafford (if he plays) and Ben Roethlisberger are the only legit options up top. A little lower on the money chart, Nick Foles and Derek Carr have 3X upside. Still, the best option might be to choose one of Drew Lock or Kyle Allen as a punt. Both of them are guaranteed to reach 3X.  Although I should state that Lock is much more appealing on DK than FD based on price. If you want to be really ballsy consider Jake Luton.

Fantasy Four Pack

Deshaun Watson, Texans @ JAX ($7100 DK, $8300 FD)
The biggest trade deadline winner was Deshaun Watson. All weekend long rumors circulated that his receiving corps would be decimated through trades. Well, the deadline passed and Deshaun still has Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, and Kenny Stills to throw to. I must admit, I thought there was zero chance that one of them wouldn’t have hopped on the Packers’ plane after their game last week. Jacksonville has allowed three or more total TDs to four of their last six opponents’ QBs. This included a 359-3 performance by Watson.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. CAR ($8100 DK, $9300 FD)
Carolina has allowed more than one passing TD only twice in eight games. That said, they have allowed QB rushing TDs in three straight. Patrick Mahomes isn’t a rushing QB like Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray. That doesn’t matter though. The three “rushing” QBs to score against the Panthers the last three weeks were: Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Nick Foles. Mahomes is a more pronounced rusher than any of them. In fact, Mahomes is a better “passing QB” than every other QB in the league, so expecting Carolina to hold him to one or fewer passing TDs seems unlikely. If they can successfully hold him to two passing TDs, and he scores one on the ground, then he would still be a top-3 QB this week.

Josh Allen, Bills vs. SEA ($7000 DK, $8200 FD)
Following a record-pace start to the season with 14 total scores in four weeks, Josh Allen has disappeared of late scoring only five times in his last four contests. Looking closer, you will find that two of those contests were against top-ten pass defenses and he topped 300 passing yards in one of those other “struggle” games. Plus, John Brown was either out or limited in each of the four games. Brown is still not 100%, but Seattle’s defense is historically bad right now. The fact they didn’t address this at the trade deadline is absurdist at best. This smells heavily of the “get-right” game for Allen.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks @ BUF ($7600 DK, $9000 FD)
l have to hand it to Russell Wilson. All trends pointed to him struggling the last two weeks versus Arizona and San Francisco. He proved me wrong throwing for 649-7 and running for another 107 yards. This is his season. Buffalo has been middle of the pack against the pass this year despite having solid defensive backs. They also have limited but not completely stopped Cam Newton and Patrick Mahomes during two of their past three games. This time I refuse to accept that Wilson can be limited. Still, 300-3 seems like both his floor and his ceiling every week right now. Especially, since Mahomes is the only QB they have faced that is on par with Wilson.

DFS Sleepers

Drew Lock, Broncos @ ATL ($5200 DK, $7200 FD)
Drew Lock has played significant snaps in four games this year. Three of them have come against the #4, #9, and #13 pass defenses. Needless to say, his numbers underwhelmed in those three games. Last week he finally faced a bottom-half pass defense and he went off for 248-3. That game also coincided with the return to full health for several of his offensive weapons. Meanwhile, Atlanta has allowed 300 passing yards and/or three or more TDs in all but one game. 300-3 is in play here too.

Derek Carr, Raiders @ LAC ($5700 DK, $7000 FD)
A once strong pass defense for the Chargers has been dismantled by both injuries and now trades too. Five of the seven QBs to face them have recorded multiple touchdowns this season. Derek Carr is very vanilla as is his receiving corps. Choosing the stack each week is next to impossible. Darren Waller is always safe for volume but Nelson Agholor, Henry Ruggs, and Hunter Renfrow have rolled dice to determine who scores week-to-week. Carr has multiple TDs in five of his last six games. The only exception was last week in the 40 MPH winds and rain at Cleveland.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey	$8,500	$9,500
Dalvin Cook	$8,200	$9,300
Derrick Henry	$7,900	$8,900
James Robinson	$7,000	$7,300
James Conner	$6,900	$8,200
Chase Edmonds	$6,800	$6,700
Mike Davis	$6,700	$7,800
Ezekiel Elliott	$6,600	$8,000
Chris Carson	$6,500	$7,600
Josh Jacobs	$6,300	$7,700
Todd Gurley	$6,200	$6,900
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	$6,100	$7,000
Jonathan Taylor	$6,000	$6,400
Antonio Gibson	$5,800	$6,200
David Montgomery	$5,700	$5,900
David Johnson	$5,600	$6,800
Melvin Gordon	$5,300	$6,600
Phillip Lindsay	$5,200	$5,700
Zack Moss	$5,200	$5,800
Carlos Hyde	$5,100	$5,700
Le’Veon Bell	$5,100	$5,500
D’Andre Swift	$5,000	$6,000
DeeJay Dallas	$5,000	$5,100
J.K. Dobbins	$4,900	$5,300
Justin Jackson	$4,900	$5,900
Gus Edwards	$4,800	$5,400
Mark Ingram	$4,800	$5,600
Devin Singletary	$4,700	$5,800
Kenyan Drake	$4,700	$6,000
Devonta Freeman	$4,600	$5,500
Wayne Gallman	$4,500	$5,500
Joshua Kelley	$4,400	$5,400
Nyheim Hines	$4,400	$5,400
J.D. McKissic	$4,300	$5,200
Jordan Wilkins	$4,200	$5,600
Adrian Peterson	$4,000	$5,300
Duke Johnson	$4,000	$4,800
Jordan Howard	$4,000	$4,500
Matt Breida	$4,000	$4,700
Troymaine Pope	$4,000	$4,500

Running Back

Weekly strategy – The fact that neither site is giving us an injury discount for Christian McCaffrey proves that they believe him to be 100% ready to mash Week 9. I won’t be completely avoiding CMAC, but I’d like to see how much Mike Davis cuts into his workload in his first week back before investing heavily. Besides, you can get the same production from Dalvin Cook for a couple of hundred dollars less. Cook is my favorite based on price and he will be my primary RB1. The cheaper pivots that I like are James Conner and Chase Edmonds (if Kenyan Drake is out). I will also consider using one of those two at RB2. Josh Jacobs could also be an under-the-radar pivot here. There are three others that I really like at RB2 or FLEX: Antonio Gibson, David Johnson, and Zack Moss. If I don’t choose three from all of the above-listed options, Justin Jackson also makes a nice FLEX play. I would also recommend Matt Breida as a volume-based punt play.

Fantasy Four Pack

Dalvin Cook, Vikings vs. DET ($8200 DK, $9300 FD)
Dalvin Cook is coming off one of the best games of his career against the Packers, now he gets to face a team that is almost as bad against the run. The Lions have allowed multiple TDs to four different backs this season and five RB scores in the last two games. Meanwhile, Cook has scored in every game that he has played in this season. He also has averaged 165 combo yards per game over his last four games.

Christian McCaffrey, Panthers @ KC ($8500 DK, $9500 FD)
What can we say? At least they left a little meat on the bones here as they didn’t immediately price him over $10K. Still, give the man an injury discount for crying out loud. It still is Christian McCaffrey and he is still facing a bad run defense in KC, so he is still most definitely in play. Plus, when Carolina falls behind and is forced to throw the ball CMAC will still be relevant. In fact, I’m looking forward to all those potential receptions. My usage will be down this week, but not completely. You never know when he will break a slate.

James Conner, Steelers @ DAL ($6900 DK, $8200 FD)
Despite the interrupting presence of Chase Claypool and Benny Snell, James Conner has still managed to score and/or top 100 yards in each of his last six games. Meanwhile, Dallas has allowed an average of 106 total yards per game and 1.2 TDs per game to opposing top RBs over the last five contests. So 100-1 is a virtual lock here. Snell or Claypool might steal a score here too. Conner is also a great way to get exposure to the Pittsburgh offense this week rather than trying to guess which WRs will score (even though they may all score here).

Chase Edmonds, Cardinals vs. MIA ($6800 DK, $6700 FD)
Right now, Kenyan Drake has not officially been ruled out for this week. This is coach-speak. There is below a razor-thin chance that Drake suits up for this one. Even if he does, he may have completely lost the RB1 role in Arizona. Chase Edmonds looked explosive in his relief of Drake in Week 7. Miami is not good against opposing backs allowing an average of just under 150 combo yards per game. This is mainly due to it being considerably easier to attack them on the ground than through the air.

DFS Sleepers

Zack Moss, Bills vs. SEA ($5200 DK, $5800 FD)
I missed the boat on Zack Moss’ takeover last week. After rewatching the footage, I am firmly in the camp that he is more talented than Devin Singletary. Singletary had a good game last week as well, but Moss looked like the clear red zone favorite. Seattle is allowing 30 points per game over the last three weeks, and only five teams have allowed more red zone opportunities over that span.

Justin Jackson, Chargers vs. LV ($4900 DK, $5900 FD)
Justin Jackson quickly re-established himself as the Alpha running back for the Chargers last week. Even something called Troymaine Pope outproduced Joshua Kelley. Jackson is useful both on the ground and in the passing game and he should have little trouble achieving value against a Raiders’ defense allowing 174 combo yards, 7.3 receptions, and 1.5 total TDs per game to opposing RBs. Yes, he will probably share some of those numbers with Kelley and Pope, but know full well that Jackson is the RB1.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
DeAndre Hopkins	$8,200	$8,800
DK Metcalf	$7,800	$8,100
Stefon Diggs	$7,400	$7,600
Julio Jones	$7,200	$8,200
Tyreek Hill	$7,100	$8,300
Calvin Ridley	$7,000	$8,000
Keenan Allen	$7,000	$7,500
Allen Robinson	$6,900	$6,900
Tyler Lockett	$6,800	$7,400
Will Fuller	$6,800	$7,100
Adam Thielen	$6,700	$7,700
A.J. Brown	$6,600	$7,600
Terry McLaurin	$6,500	$7,200
Robby Anderson	$6,300	$6,600
JuJu Smith-Schuster	$6,200	$6,500
Justin Jefferson	$6,100	$6,800
Marquise Brown	$6,000	$5,800
Corey Davis	$5,900	$6,000
Chase Claypool	$5,700	$6,300
Amari Cooper	$5,600	$7,000
DJ Moore	$5,600	$7,000
Brandin Cooks	$5,500	$6,100
Cole Beasley	$5,400	$5,300
Christian Kirk	$5,300	$5,900
DeVante Parker	$5,200	$6,300
DJ Chark	$5,200	$6,400
Marvin Jones	$5,100	$6,100
Mike Williams	$5,100	$6,200
Darius Slayton	$5,000	$5,900
Diontae Johnson	$5,000	$6,000
CeeDee Lamb	$4,900	$5,800
Henry Ruggs	$4,900	$5,700
Tim Patrick	$4,900	$5,300
Mecole Hardman	$4,800	$5,600
Sterling Shepard	$4,800	$5,500
Jerry Jeudy	$4,700	$5,700
Nelson Agholor	$4,700	$5,000
John Brown	$4,600	$5,500
Sammy Watkins	$4,600	$5,500
T.Y. Hilton	$4,600	$5,300
Randall Cobb	$4,500	$5,400
Russell Gage	$4,500	$5,400
Curtis Samuel	$4,400	$5,600
Zach Pascal	$4,300	$5,200
Laviska Shenault	$4,200	$5,400
Hunter Renfrow	$4,100	$5,100
Preston Williams	$4,100	$5,100
Willie Snead	$4,100	$5,100
Anthony Miller	$4,000	$5,100
Keelan Cole	$4,000	$5,200
Michael Gallup	$4,000	$5,400
Darnell Mooney	$3,900	$5,500
Michael Pittman	$3,900	$5,000
Larry Fitzgerald	$3,800	$5,000
Marvin Hall	$3,800	$4,600
Danny Amendola	$3,700	$5,300
Golden Tate	$3,700	$5,500
Adam Humphries	$3,400	$5,000
KJ Hamler	$3,400	$4,800
Dontrelle Inman	$3,300	$4.600
Andy Isabella	$3,200	$4,700
Cordarrelle Patterson	$3,200	$4,700
DaeSean Hamilton	$3,300	$4,600
Demarcus Robinson	$3,200	$5,400
Gabriel Davis	$3,200	$4,800
David Moore	$3,100	$5,200
James Washington	$3,000	$5,000
Olamide Zaccheaus	$3,000	$4.700
Quintez Cephus	$3,000	$4,600

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy –  I’m glad we don’t have to break down the WR selections from the game on Thursday. It is ugly enough on the rest of this slate. Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen are the only two sure things right now. If I were to pivot away from one of those two at WR1, it would be with Adam Thielen or Julio Jones (especially if Calvin Ridley doesn’t play). That said, neither of those two nor Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, or DK Metcalf feels 100% safe. I could also consider Will Fuller in a stack with Watson, but this feels like a Brandin Cooks game. Speaking of Cooks, he along with Cole Beasley (if you don’t use Diggs) are my favorite WR2 plays here. I also like JuJu Smith-Schuster in this range, even though it is hard to predict which Steeler will go off week-to-week. I also don’t feel solid about playing both him and Conner at RB because they could vulture each others’ potential scores. At WR3, I am torn between Sterling Shepard and Jerry Jeudy. I could also use one of the other Steelers’ WRs or one of the Raiders. The only punt options that I like are Darnell Mooney, KJ Hamler, David Moore, and Quintez Cephus (if Matthew Stafford plays).

Fantasy Four Pack

Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. SEA ($7400 DK, $7600 FD)
Stefon Diggs gets his turn against this pass defense that has allowed an average of 9-115 to opposing WR1s. None of those top options finished with less than 8-80. Meanwhile, Diggs has scored and/or topped 8 yards in every game this season but one.

Keenan Allen, Chargers vs. LV ($7000 DK, $7500 FD)
Keenan Allen currently ranks fourth in targets and fifth in receptions among all WRs. This comes despite the fact that he has played one fewer game than each of those individuals leading him in those two categories except DeAndre Hopkins. Vegas has only faced four high-end WRs this season and all four posted big games against them. I really like the idea of stacking Derek Carr and one of his WRs in this game and then rolling it back with Allen.

DK Metcalf, Seahawks @ BUF ($7800 DK, $8100 FD)
Choosing between DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett from week-to-week is becoming increasingly more difficult. Looking at the rest of the season, Buffalo has done a good job of limiting speed WRs (not that DK isn’t fast) but the WRs that have had the most success against them are the larger-bodied outside guys. This, I believe, favors Metcalf. Either way, you will want some exposure to each of them, as both have proven capable of being slate-breakers.

Julio Jones, Falcons vs. DEN ($7200 DK, $8200 FD)
I believe that this game will ultimately be a pass-forward shootout. Much like the Allen play above, I see this as a great opportunity to stack Drew Lock and Jerry Jeudy or Noah Fant and then run it back with Julio Jones. Bump Jones’s value up to borderline GREEN territory if Calvin Ridley is out as expected.

DFS Sleepers

Brandin Cooks, Texans @ JAX ($5500 DK, $6100 FD)
Back in Week 5, it was Brandin Cooks that exploded for 8-161-1 against Jacksonville. Will Fuller also finished with 4-58-1, so it wasn’t like he was chopped liver. This is a matter of dollars and cents though. Brandin costs $1.3K less on DK and $1K less on FD. That is the difference between using Deshaun Watson or Josh Allen at QB and using 1-TD Teddy Bridgewater at QB.

Cole Beasley, Bills vs. SEA ($5400 DK, $5300 FD)
What will it take for Cole Beasley to get the pricing respect he deserves? He has six or more targets in six of eight games. He has also topped 50 yards receiving and/or scored in all but one game. He also ranks fifteenth in receptions and 20th in receiving yards among all WRs. His usage has certainly been boosted by John Brown, who has been off-and-on the injury report most of the year. Seattle has already given up big games to fellow non-#1WRs such as Russell Gage, Cedrick Wilson, Damiere Byrd, Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk, and Kendrick Bourne. This means that there should be points to be found for Beasley whether he is the #2 or the #3 this week.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Travis Kelce	$7,200	$8,000
Darren Waller	$5,800	$6,400
T.J. Hockenson	$5,100	$6,000
Mark Andrews	$4,800	$6,600
Noah Fant	$4,600	$5,800
Eric Ebron	$4,500	$5,400
Mike Gesicki	$4,400	$5,300
Evan Engram	$4,300	$5,500
Darren Fells	$4,200	$5,200
Hayden Hurst	$4,100	$5,600
Hunter Henry	$4,000	$5,600
Jonnu Smith	$3,900	$5,700
Jimmy Graham	$3,800	$5,300
Logan Thomas	$3,700	$5,000
Dalton Schultz	$3,600	$5,100
Trey Burton	$3,500	$5,500
Dawson Knox	$3,400	$4,500
Jordan Akins	$3,300	$4,800
Tyler Kroft	$3,200	$4,700
Greg Olsen	$3,100	$4,800
Kyle Rudolph	$3,100	$4,400
Irv Smith	$2,900	$4,600
Jack Doyle	$2,900	$4,900
Albert Okwuegbunam	$2,800	$5,000
Ian Thomas	$2,800	$4,600
Tyler Eifert	$2,700	$4,700

Tight End

Weekly strategy – There is a ton of value to be found at TE this week. Darren Waller and T.J. Hockenson are right at 3X range, but there are a couple of players that I like just as much for a little less money. Noah Fant is my favorite play of the week. After him, I’d consider using Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, Logan Thomas, or Jonnu Smith. Darren Fells could also be in play here if Jordan Akins doesn’t play. One of the Houston TEs will score, but if Akins is healthy, it’s a tossup. If you need a punt play strongly consider using Greg Olsen, one of the Buffalo TEs, or Albert Okwuegbunam.

Darren Waller, Raiders @ LAC ($5800 DK, $6400 FD)
The Chargers have already allowed big games to fellow athletic TEs like Noah Fant, Travis Kelce, O.J. Howard, and Jared Cook. Put this alongside Darren Waller’s extensive usage (2nd in targets and receptions among all TEs), and this makes a solid PPR game for Waller. Plus, he is about $1.5K less than Travis Kelce on this docket.

Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. CAR ($7200 DK, $8000 FD)
This isn’t a bad matchup for Travis Kelce. That said, it seems ridiculous to pay his salary, when Waller, T.J. Hockenson, and Noah Fant will produce similar lines for considerably fewer dollars. You still cannot take away from Kelce the fact that he leads all TEs in every fantasy-relevant metric. It should be known that Carolina is decent against the position, but they have given up a few TDs recently.

Noah Fant, Broncos @ ATL ($4600 DK, $5800 FD)
This is the player I will have the most access to this week. The Drew Lock-Noah Fant stack (possibly also with Jerry Jeudy) will print you money. His salary is nearly $2.5K below Kelce and their output this week will be similar. Atlanta has allowed a league-worst 50 receptions and eight TDs to the position and a league second-worst 534 receiving yards. Basically, every starting TE not named Ian Thomas has battered this team. If you take the two games against Carolina out of the stats against Atlanta, the Falcons are allowing an average of 7.7-83-1.3 to opposing TEs. If it wasn’t for the looming vulture of Albert Okwuegbunam, Fant would be ranked #1 overall among TEs this week. He still is poised to potentially bust the slate.

T.J. Hockenson, Lions @ MIN ($5100 DK, $6000 FD)
T.J. Hockenson has scored and/or topped 50 receiving yards in every game this season. Throw into this no Kenny Golladay and a possible scrub QB, and that sets up for heavy usage by the second-year TE. Minnesota has only allowed two TE scores all year, but only three teams have allowed more TE receiving yards. Plus, both of those scores have come in their last three games.

DFS Sleepers

Jonnu Smith, Titans vs. CHI ($3900 DK, $5700 FD)
Jonnu Smith’s usage has been down since his injury. Perhaps, he is not 100% still. Chicago has allowed the league’s eighth-most five TE touchdowns and on the year they are allowing an average of 5.4-53 to the position. That alone will be close to 3X on DK, if Jonnu scores here it is gravy.

Logan Thomas, Football Team vs. NYG ($3700 DK, $5000 FD)
Scoring two weeks in a row pushed Logan Thomas to the top scorer among pass-catchers in Washington. He still trails Terry McLaurin in targets and yardage, but it is clear that Thomas is option B in this offense through the air. The Giants have started to stumble against the position of late. In the last three weeks, they are allowing an average of 5-68 to the position with two TDs allowed. One of those scores went to Thomas in Week 6.

[lawrence-newsletter]

Week 8 is here, and (knock on wood) we haven’t had any new COVID-related changes yet this week. We did however find out last week that the NFL is willing to FLEX games even this early in the season, and it won’t even take COVID to force this to happen.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Dallas @ Philadelphia Eagles

This game sounded a lot more exciting coming into the season. Of course, Philadelphia now has half of their roster injured and Dallas has their most important athlete injured. Amazingly, this game still has playoff implications as the winner will stay in the hunt with the Washington Football Team in the battle to back into the playoffs by winning this division. Andy Dalton got concussed by a dirty hit from Jon Bostic. He is unlikely to go this week. Many Cowboys’ fans might not care since he wasn’t doing much anyway. Currently, the Cowboys are planning on starting Ben Dinucci. His best attribute is a mustache that rivals Gardner Minshew’s. In addition, he was an AFCA First-Team All American and the CAA Offensive Player of the Year during his senior season at James Madison. He can run a little, but his pocket presence did not look sharp in his first appearance Sunday. Only one team has given up more rushing yards to opposing QBs and they only have three INTs all year, so Dinucci is a serviceable streamer in SF formats. I just don’t like him as anything better than QB3 on this slate. Carson Wentz has quietly slid himself into a top-ten slot, despite having a bunch of UDFA’s and XFL/AAF castoffs to throw to. Wentz is solidly QB2 on this board, and he may outproduce Tom Brady.

Ezekiel Elliott has been neutered by Dallas’ crippled O-line and the QB situation. He is still without a doubt the best option on this slate. Perhaps being on their third-string QB, Dallas will finally focus on the run. With the issues Dallas has, I cannot recommend using Tony Pollard though. Miles Sanders is likely out again. Boston Scott looked very good in his stead last week, and he makes a solid RB2 here. He would be in a dogfight with Ronald Jones, but Jones may be in the doghouse based on his usage last week. Corey Clement didn’t get enough touches last week to garner anything other than Showdown slate usage.

Amari Cooper caught the first pass from Dinucci. I don’t consider that enough of a sample size to rely on for projecting his usage. Philly has done a better job of defending WR1s than slot and other WRs, so perhaps you should avoid him. I also assume that prior to this week, Dinucci got more practice reps throwing to Michael Gallup and Cedric Wilson than Cooper. Speaking of Gallup, this is really the only thing he has going for himself right now. If I was him, I’d be lobbying for a trade to Green Bay or Baltimore or San Francisco, or, or, or. CeeDee Lamb is the safest play among this group as he has no doubt had some reps with Dinucci, and because Philly has struggled with inside WRs. He is likely WR3 at worst on this slate. I’ll put Cooper at WR5, Gallup at WR8, and Wilson at WR9. If you need a punt-WR to fit salary-wise, Wilson might be the best option. Only one player in the entirety of the NFL has more targets over the last four weeks than Travis Fulgham. He also has the third-most receiving yards and the fifth-most receiving TDs over that span. Yes, folks, Travis Fulgham is your WR1 on this board. The only other option I’d consider as WR1 is Mike Evans. With DeSean Jackson back on IR, Greg Ward is also in play as WR6. I will have several lineups with both Fulgham and Ward stacked with Wentz. John Hightower and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside can be used as punt-WR3s or better yet just used in Showdown contests.

Dalton Schultz has done very well all year, and his numbers should be safe with an inexperienced QB at the helm. Philly is rotten against TEs, so play him as TE3/4 here. Zach Ertz is out and Dallas Goedert is not expected back for this game. This means that Richard Rodgers is set for another huge game. Dallas has allowed at least one TE score in five of the last six games. Rodgers will score here easily. He will be my TE1 this week, just slightly beating out Rob Gronkowski. Philly’s defense and Tampa Bay will be your two choices at that position this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants

The Giants have allowed the fifth-most passing yards through the first seven weeks, but they’ve only given up 11 passing TDs. Looking deeper we find that Ben Roethlisberger, Jared Goff, and Carson Wentz are the only proven QBs they have faced. Tom Brady should have little trouble moving the ball here (even without Chris Godwin). Wentz is the only QB that I’d consider above Brady in this spot. Daniel Jones is facing a Tampa defense that has given up only nine passing TDs all season, but who have been otherwise hit-or-miss. You cannot run against this team, so NY will have to throw. Jones is probably safer to use than Dinucci, but not by a whole bunch.

Ronald Jones was benched for part of the game last week, but he eventually worked his way back onto the field. He is clearly the better back than Leonard Fournette, but Bruce Arians (and possibly Tom Brady) like the veteran a little more. If I knew Jones would be the primary ballcarrier this week, he would be in a battle with Boston Scott for RB2. He still is the obvious RB3 and a great FLEX play. Fournette also needs to be considered for FLEX. Devonta Freeman got hurt last week, you probably weren’t going to use him this week anyhow. Wayne Gallman looked ok last week, and he actually out-targeted Dion Lewis. This is important because as good as Tampa has been against RBs on the ground, they have been equally inept against pass-catching backs. Normally, I would think of Dion Lewis in that role, but he has not been used as such this year. I’d consider him in Showdown or as a deep-punt FLEX. Gallman joins Fournette in the regular FLEX consideration, based on volume, just don’t expect many yards per carry.

Chris Godwin is out with a broken finger and Antonio Brown is still under league suspension. This means that Tom Brady will be forced to start throwing the ball to our WR2 for this week, Mike Evans again. Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller are also in play as WR3 options. The Giants have been amenable to both outside and inside WRs all year long. This is just a hunch, but I actually think that Johnson will have a blow-up game here as he did in Week 5 when Godwin was out. Downfield receivers have had success against Tampa this year, so I have better faith in both Golden Tate and Darius Slayton than Sterling Shepard this week. Shepard did outproduce the other two last week, and he scored a TD. I’m still not going to rely on any of them as more than a WR3 for fantasy purposes. Despite the trends, Shepard still has the safest floor as the possession guy, but Slayton has the biggest upside as a TD threat.

Rob Gronkowski and Richard Rodgers are your TE1/2 in some order this week. That is a phrase I never thought I would utter. I could actually see going Double-TE with them. Evan Engram slides all the way to TE4. Tampa has allowed TE touchdowns in two of their last three, but they aren’t giving up many yards to the position. For defense, Tampa is the safest play overall. The Giants are tied with Dallas for the worst option.

 

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $7.6K for Aaron Rodgers. $6.9K for Kareem Hunt. $5.6K for Melvin Gordon. $8.8K for Davante Adams. $4.5K for A.J. Green. $3.8K for Hunter Renfrow. $4.1K for Jonnu Smith. $4.6K for Le’Veon Bell at FLEX. $3.8K for the Rams’ defense.

At FD: $8.4K for Rodgers. $8.2K for Hunt. $6K for Bell. $9.1K for Adams. $5.9K for Brandon Aiyuk. $5.1K for Renfrow. $6.1K for Jonnu. $6K for Jerick McKinnon at FLEX. $5K for the Chiefs’ defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo at SF, Derrick Henry, Gordon, Adams, Green, Travis Fulgham, George Kittle, and Bell at FLEX.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes	$8,100	$9,200
Russell Wilson	$7,800	$8,700
Aaron Rodgers	$7,600	$8,400
Lamar Jackson	$7,400	$8,300
Josh Allen	$7,000	$8,200
Justin Herbert	$6,900	$7,700
Ryan Tannehill	$6,800	$7,500
Ben Roethlisberger	$6,600	$7,100
Jared Goff	$6,500	$7,300
Matthew Stafford	$6,400	$7,200
Drew Brees	$6,300	$7,600
Joe Burrow	$6,200	$7,600
Baker Mayfield	$6,100	$7,200
Kirk Cousins	$6,000	$7,100
Philip Rivers	$5,900	$6,900
Nick Foles	$5,800	$6,700
Cam Newton	$5,700	$7,400
Tua Tagovailoa	$5,600	$6,800
Derek Carr	$5,500	$7,300
Jimmy Garoppolo	$5,400	$6,600
Drew Lock	$5,300	$7,000
Jarrett Stidham	$5,300	$6,500
Sam Darnold	$4,800	$6,500

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – Aaron Rodgers is the obvious top option here. That also means that he will be very chalky. Patrick Mahomes looks like a sure thing against the rotten Jets, but how much throwing will he actually do, and which quarter will he be pulled in. The other top options are all hit-or-miss, so you kind of have to use one of those two. If you are looking to save a few bucks, I could see using Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, or Jimmy Garoppolo. The real ballsy play though would be to start Sam Darnold.

Fantasy Four Pack

Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. MIN ($7600 DK, $8400 FD)
Thanks to trades, free agency, and injury, the Vikes currently have four regular starters on defense remaining from last season. Not to mention, that three of their top four current CBs are questionable for this week. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers has thrown for three or more passing TDs in four of six games. This includes 364-4 against the Vikings back in Week 1.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. NYJ ($8100 DK, $9200 FD)
If you were a fan of pro wrestling in the ’80s, you might remember King Kong Bundy scheduling matches against four jobbers, and then pinning all four of them at once after a big splash usually less than two minutes into the match. The only difference between that outcome and this game is that this game is required to last 60 minutes. Patrick Mahomes will squash the Jets for thirty minutes before tagging in Chad Henne to go for the easy pin in the third quarter. Outside of DFS, if you are in SuperFlex bye week hell, you could even consider playing Henne.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks vs. SF ($7800 DK, $8700 FD)
San Francisco’s pass defense isn’t nearly as good as you think it is. They have done well again bad QBs like Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Cam Newton, but they have allowed big games to all of the others that they have faced. Russell Wilson had a very impressive final line last week targeting Tyler Lockett and Tyler Lockett, with a few additional passes thrown to Tyler Lockett. That strategy won’t work this week. Fortunately for Russell, he has other options to throw to as well.

Ryan Tannehill, Titans @ CIN ($6800 DK, $7500 FD)
Despite being a run-first team, Ryan Tannehill has accounted for four TDs in half of his games this year. In the other three games, he had posted two touchdowns twice and a 321-yard performance. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-most passing TDs, including eight over the last two weeks. Derrick Henry will feast in this game, but don’t be surprised if Tannehill throws for three scores as well.

DFS Sleepers

Derek Carr, Raiders @ CLE ($5500 DK, $7300 FD)
Cleveland is giving up more than 300 passing yards per game. They have also allowed three or more passing TDs four times this year. Derek Carr is the “vanilla” of fantasy QBs. Only once this year has Carr not topped 260 yards and only once this year has he thrown for less than two TDs. That is always his floor, and it only gets better against subpar defenses. Cleveland matches that description.

Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers @ SEA ($5400 DK, $6600 FD)
Seattle has only played six games but they have allowed the fourth-most total passing yards. They are allowing an abhorrent average of 374 yards per game. Plus, they have allowed a league-high four QB rushing scores. Jimmy Garoppolo is by no means a rushing QB, but with injuries to three of the top four RBs on the Niners’ roster, he might steal one here. Even without the rushing score, 325-2 should be a lock in a shootout.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Alvin Kamara	$8,200	$9,000
Derrick Henry	$8,000	$9,500
Dalvin Cook	$7,500	$9,200
Aaron Jones	$7,300	$8,500
Kareem Hunt	$6,900	$8,200
Jonathan Taylor	$6,600	$7,300
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	$6,500	$7,500
James Conner	$6,400	$6,900
Joe Mixon	$6,300	$7,400
Josh Jacobs	$6,200	$7,800
Jamaal Williams	$6,100	$7,000
Darrell Henderson	$5,900	$6,100
David Montgomery	$5,900	$5,800
Giovani Bernard	$5,800	$5,900
Jerick McKinnon	$5,700	$6,000
Melvin Gordon	$5,600	$6,700
Carlos Hyde	$5,300	$5,000
D’Andre Swift	$5,300	$6,300
Myles Gaskin	$5,200	$5,700
Devin Singletary	$5,100	$5,700
JaMycal Hasty	$5,000	$5,600
Joshua Kelley	$4,900	$5,900
Justin Jackson	$4,800	$5,800
Mark Ingram	$4,800	$5,600
Malcolm Brown	$4,700	$5,200
J.K. Dobbins	$4,600	$5,100
Le’Veon Bell	$4,600	$6,000
James White	$4,500	$5,300
Gus Edwards	$4,400	$4,600
Zack Moss	$4,400	$5,400
Cam Akerss	$4,300	$5,000
La’Mical Perine	$4,300	$5,300
Latavius Murray	$4,300	$5,100
Damien Harris	$4,200	$5,500
Adrian Peterson	$4,000	$5,400
AJ Dillon	$4,000	$4,800
DeeJay Dallas	$4,000	$4,600
Frank Gore	$4,000	$5,000
Nyheim Hines	$4,000	$4,900
Tevin Coleman	$4,000	$5,000
Travis Homer	$4,000	$4,900

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Two of the four highest-priced options on both sites are questionable due to injury. Either Dalvin Cook or Aaron Jones could be an effective start if we knew they were playing. The safer option is just to go with two of the four other sure-things: Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt, Jonathan Taylor, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Fitting two of them under your cap may be tough. You may be able to pivot to Jamaal Williams if Jones is out. That could save a few bucks, but it will still be tough to fit two of these options under the cap. Jerick McKinnon was set up for a big game, but now it looks like Tevin Coleman may be active, cutting into Jerick’s touches. When I can’t afford two of the above players, I will opt for one of them paired with Melvin Gordon, Le’Veon Bell, whoever starts for Seattle, or Justin Jackson. These will also be my favorite FLEX plays. If you don’t use Taylor, seriously consider using Nyheim Hines as a punt-FLEX.

Fantasy Four Pack

Derrick Henry, Titans @ CIN ($8000 DK, $9500 FD)
Cincinnati is allowing an average of 167 combo yards and a TD to opposing RBs. This is Derrick Henry’s floor. Henry has seven TDs over the last four games. Multiple scores here are not only possible, but they are also likely.

Kareem Hunt, Browns vs. LV ($6900 DK, $8200 FD)
Las Vegas has been bad against opposing RBs allowing nearly 160 combo yards per game and 1.5 TDs per game. They have been particularly damaged by receiving backs like Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. They have even struggled to stop  Devin Singletary, Rex Burkhead, and Leonard Fournette through the air. Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt leads all RBs with four receiving TDs, and he is tied for the overall lead among RBs with seven total TDs. A floor of 125-1 with five receptions awaits Kareem here.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts @ DET ($6600 DK, $7300 FD)
Jonathan Taylor’s production has been far from what we expected coming into the year. Perhaps the bye week has encouraged and allowed the Colts’ brass to finally #LetTaylorSew. Detroit is near the bottom in defending the run allowing nearly 160 total yards per game to the position and multiple RB scores in half of their contests. Yes, this means that Nyheim Hines (who is now the official backup to Taylor) is also in play at a bargain-basement rate.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs vs. NYJ ($6500 DK, $7500 FD)
Kansas City will run through the Jets this week. Patrick Mahomes won’t have to throw the ball a lot because the Chiefs will be up by 20 by the end of the first quarter. This means excessive groundwork for both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell. CEH will score and top 100 total yards before taking his spot next to Mahomes on the bench in the second half.

DFS Sleepers

Melvin Gordon, Broncos vs. LAC ($5600 DK, $6700 FD)
Melvin Gordon gets his revenge game against the Chargers. He gets the benefit of potentially no Philip Lindsay to steal his thunder this week as well. If Lindsay is out (as is expected), Gordon gets to face a depleted Chargers’ defense that has allowed big games to each of the last four featured backs to face them.

Le’Veon Bell, Chiefs vs. NYJ ($4600 DK, $6000 FD)
Did you say something about a revenge game? Le’Veon Bell gets to have the ultimate revenge game here against Adam Gase and the Jets. He will inevitably split touches with CEH here, but Bell will be very active here as well. I predicted this on the @BlitzedPodcast on Monday and I will reiterate it here. Bell will score two TDs this week. Following the second one, he will take the ball, run down the sideline and throw it directly at the face of Gase. This will net him a 15-yard penalty, and he will be kicked out of the game, but he will already have scored 100-2.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Davante Adams	$8,800	$9,100
DK Metcalf	$7,500	$7,800
Michael Thomas	$7,300	$8,600
Adam Thielen	$7,200	$7,700
Tyler Lockett	$7,100	$7,200
Allen Robinson	$7,000	$6,800
A.J. Brown	$6,900	$7,500
Stefon Diggs	$6,800	$7,100
Tyreek Hill	$6,700	$8,100
Kenny Golladay	$6,600	$7,600
Tyler Boyd	$6,600	$6,400
Cooper Kupp	$6,500	$7,300
Justin Jefferson	$6,500	$6,600
Robert Woods	$6,300	$7,000
Keenan Allen	$6,200	$7,400
Marquise Brown	$6,100	$5,900
Brandon Aiyuk	$5,800	$5,900
Jamison Crowder	$5,800	$6,300
DeVante Parker	$5,700	$6,100
Jarvis Landry	$5,600	$5,800
Tee Higgins	$5,600	$6,000
Diontae Johnson	$5,500	$6,200
JuJu Smith-Schuster	$5,400	$6,500
Cole Beasley	$5,300	$5,300
Chase Claypool	$5,200	$6,000
Corey Davis	$5,100	$5,400
Emmanuel Sanders	$4,900	$6,000
Henry Ruggs	$4,900	$5,700
T.Y. Hilton	$4,900	$5,700
Jerry Jeudy	$4,800	$5,600
Sammy Watkins	$4,800	$5,300
Mecole Hardman	$4,700	$5,400
Nelson Agholor	$4,700	$5,000
Tim Patrick	$4,700	$5,400
Tre’Quan Smith	$4,700	$5,300
A.J. Green	$4,500	$5,800
Zach Pascal	$4,500	$5,200
John Brown	$4,400	$5,600
Mike Williams	$4,400	$5,900
Anthony Miller	$4,300	$5,100
Preston Williams	$4,300	$5,200
Marvin Jones	$4,200	$5,500
Rashad Higgins	$4,200	$5,500
Adam Humphries	$3,800	$5,000
Donovan Peoples-Jones	$3,800	$5,200
Hunter Renfrow	$3,800	$5,100
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	$3,800	$5,100
Damiere Byrd	$3,700	$4,900
Breshad Perriman	$3,600	$5,000
Braxton Berrios	$3,500	$4,700
Darnell Mooney	$3,500	$5,200
Gabriel Davis	$3,500	$4,900
Kendrick Bourne	$3,500	$5,000
Marquez Callaway	$3,400	$5,000
N’Keal Harry	$3,400	$5,100
Deonte Harris	$3,300	$4,700
Jeff Smith	$3,300	$4,600
Cordarelle Patterson	$3,200	$4,700
Denzel Mims	$3,200	$4,900
David Moore	$3,100	$4.900
Demarcus Robinson	$3,100	$5,300
James Washington	$3,000	$5,000

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy –  There have been various sure-things all season. Davante Adams may be the surest of all of them. Just set him at WR1 and build around him. There are two cheaper pivots in A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill but just use Adams. I have spent a lot already, so I will likely go cheaper at WR2. If you find yourself with extra cash to throw around consider Tyler Boyd or Justin Jefferson. More likely, I will use Brandon Aiyuk or Jarvis Landry. Be prepared to spend down at WR3 as well. I like the Raiders’ WRs, Adam Humphries, Zach Pascal, and Darnell Mooney. The obvious punt play would be to use any of the Jets (Braxton Berrios, Jeff Smith, or Denzel Mims) or subordinate Chiefs -is that an oxymoron – (Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, or Brian Pringle).

Fantasy Four Pack

Davante Adams, Packers vs. MIN ($8800 DK, $9100 FD)
Davante Adams has made the Vikings his fool for the entirety of his career. This offseason, Minnesota let their top three cornerbacks leave via free agency. Their fourth CB from last year is likely out for the year with a neck injury. Their fifth CB from last year has missed a couple of practices this week. Plus, they drafted two early-round CB this year and one of them is on the COVID list. In Week 1, Adams scorched a fully healthy secondary for 14-156-2…I’ll leave this at that.

A.J. Brown, Titans @ CIN ($6900 DK, $7500 FD)
A.J. Brown has posted 18-293-4 in the three weeks since his return from injury. This includes TDs in each of those games. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has allowed seven different WRs to either top 50 yards receiving and/or score in the last four weeks. At this price, Brown is a nice pivot from the chalky Adams, but if you can fit both of them in, do it. If you cannot fit them both in, consider using Adam Humphries at WR3 to get some exposure to this game.

DK Metcalf, Seahawks vs. SF ($7500 DK, $7800 FD)
Historically, Tyler Lockett has been an absolute pumpkin in games following a blow-up. He usually produces a Laquan Treadwell-esque line. Russell Wilson still will have some success this week. This implies that he will likely have to pepper DK Metcalf instead. Metcalf proved last week that not only is he a dominant WR, he is also the best defensive back on the Seahawks. Bigger WRs such as Josh Reynolds, DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Travis Fulgham have all scored against this defense in the last four weeks. Heck, even last week when the Patriots could not do a thing against SF, bigger WR, Jakobi Meyers led the team in receiving yards after fellow big-man, N’Keal Harry, went down with a concussion.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs vs. NYJ ($6700 DK, $8100 FD)
This is another case of how much will Tyreek Hill score before his inevitable second-half benching. I think we can safely write him in for a couple of long catches at least one of which will hit paydirt. Still, we know that this game will get out of hand and it will ultimately be a clock-burner after half time so keep your expectations slightly in check.

DFS Sleepers

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers @ SEA ($5800 DK, $5900 FD)
Seattle has given up the most WR receptions and receiving yardage. They have also given up the fifth-most WR touchdowns. This is despite already having had their bye week. Brandon Aiyuk will see many targets this week with Deebo Samuel out. Last week, Deebo and Aiyuk were the only SF wide receivers with a target. That will change this week as I expect Kendrick Bourne to also be involved. Still, Aiyuk will be the primary benefactor of Deebo’s absence.

Darnell Mooney, Bears vs. NO ($3500 DK, $5200 FD)
You want a deep sleeper, how about Darnell Mooney. Allen Robinson is in the concussion protocol and Nick Foles refuses to throw the ball to Anthony Miller. This leaves Mooney as the likely top WR-target this week against the Saints. New Orleans’ secondary has been abused recently including allowing big games to three different Carolina receivers last week. Mooney hasn’t done much with the targets he has received this season, but the talent is there and now so is the opportunity.

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
George Kittle	$7,000	$7,700
Travis Kelce	$6,600	$7,900
Mark Andrews	$5,800	$7,000
Darren Waller	$5,600	$6,800
T.J. Hockenson	$5,300	$6,000
Mike Gesicki	$4,900	$5,500
Noah Fant	$4,700	$5,700
Jimmy Graham	$4,600	$5,400
Tyler Higbee	$4,500	$5,700
Jared Cook	$4,400	$5,800
Robert Tonyan	$4,300	$5,900
Hunter Henry	$4,200	$5,600
Jonnu Smith	$4,100	$6,100
Eric Ebron	$3,900	$5,100
Gerald Everett	$3,700	$4,500
Greg Olsen	$3,600	$4,900
Trey Burton	$3,500	$5,300
Tyler Kroft	$3,500	$4,800
Drew Sample	$3,400	$4,600
Kyle Rudolph	$3,400	$4,400
Harrison Bryant	$3,200	$5,000
Donald Parham	$3,000	$4,600
Irv Smith	$3,000	$4,500
Albert Okwuegbunam	$2,800	$4,700
Cole Kmet	$2,500	$4,400

Tight End

Weekly strategy – George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Darren Waller all have smash games lined up. If you have the money to use one of them, please do. In all likelihood, you won’t have that financial freedom. In that case Robert Tonyan and my favorite play, Jonnu Smith make the most sense. Hunter Henry and Jared Cook could also be solid pivots. There are also several punts that I like this week including Trey Burton, Harrison Bryant, Donald Parham, Cole Kmet, or Albert Okwuegbunam.

George Kittle, 49ers @ SEA ($7000 DK, $7700 FD)
I talked earlier about how San Fran only targeted two WRs last week and one of them is out for this week. Most of the Niners passes were aimed at their tight ends and running backs.  Seattle has been so-so against the position, but they have not faced a TE anywhere comparable to George Kittle. I’d be surprised if KIttle doesn’t receive 15 targets this week as the Niners use him as a lineman-sized slot WR.

Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. NYJ ($6600 DK, $7900 FD)
The Jets have allowed five TE scores this year. Much like KIttle’s opponent, they haven’t faced any real superstars at the position. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce is coming off his worst game of the year, but he is still averaging 6-72. He also has five scores through the first seven games. He will reach his floor well before taking an early shower.

Darren Waller, Raiders @ CLE ($5600 DK, $6800 FD)
Ignoring a matchup where the Patriots took Darren Waller out, Waller is averaging 8-67 with three scores. This is TE1 territory numbers. Cleveland is allowing an average of 5.7-53 to the position with four TDs allowed. Waller should best that Cleveland average pretty easily here in a shootout.

Jonnu Smith, Titans @ CIN ($4100 DK, $6100 FD)
Prior to being injured in Week 6 and then having to face the Steelers the following week, Jonnu Smith had averaged 4.5-55 with five scores over his first four games. This isn’t the Steelers, this is Cincy. They are allowing an average of 6-74 to the position. This includes an incredible 21-257-6 over the last three weeks. I’ll take a third of that here.

DFS Sleepers

Harrison Bryant, Browns vs. LV ($3200 DK, $5000 FD)
Harrison Bryant was one of my favorite tight end sleepers last week. He went off for 4-56-2 as Austin Hooper missed the game. Hooper is doubtful for this week’s game as well and David Njoku has more trade rumors circulating around his name than catches this year. Bryant is a physical beast that is a red zone mismatch for any opponent. Vegas is coming off huge games allowed to Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce in back-to-back contests. Bryant isn’t on their level, but in a shootout, he will likely continue to garner some of Odell Beckham’s red zone targets.

Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos vs. LAC ($2800 DK, $4700 FD)
Until two weeks ago, I had never heard the name Albert Okwuegbunam before. He stepped in when Noah Fant went down with an injury and posted 9-105 on 13 targets over two weeks. Fant returned last week, but it was Albert that still led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. This sort of attention could continue since Okwuegbunam and Drew Lock played together in college at Missouri. So, they are clearly familiar with each other. The Chargers are allowing 54 TE receiving yards per game and they have given up four TE scores through six games. If Okwuegbunam continues to receive the higher target share, his likelihood of scoring is higher than that of Fant. At a sub $3K DK price, one score basically equals 3X value. Anything else is gravy.

[lawrence-newsletter]