Tag: dfs sleepers

The season is down to three games. Two this week and then the Superbowl. This will be one of the best Conference Championship weeks in recent memory as we have four upper-echelon offenses locking horns. Plus, in a bizarre twist of scheduling fate, we get to witness two rematches of Week 6. Only one of these offenses scored a ton of points that week, but this is the playoffs baby! Points will be scored, so be ready to enter multiple lineups to get the best coverage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers

In the battle of the Bays, we get the old man Aaron Rodgers facing the even older man Tom Brady. Green Bay has one very good CB, but Tampa has three very good WRs. Jaire Alexander can’t cover everyone so Tampa Tom should be a safe play this week. Still, even with all of these weapons, Tampa’s offense has been the most pedestrian of our four remaining teams. Brady is priced the lowest of the four (assuming Patrick Mahomes plays) so that savings could come in handy elsewhere. As for Tampa, they are rotten against the pass and elite against the run, so there is little reason to worry about playing Rodgers here. Aaron actually has the safest matchup of any of the four on paper.

Ronald Jones returned briefly last week but he did seem to tweak his prior injury. All signs point to him being ready to go this week, but the team may feel more comfortable with the veteran Leonard Fournette. Fournette at the very least will be the passing down back, which should provide him a fair amount of snaps in a shootout. That said, Green Bay is pretty horrible at stopping the run, so if Jones gets his feet under himself early, he may see some hot-hand run. He did have a huge game against the Pack earlier this year when Fournette was out. If we knew only one of them was playing, they would be the easy RB1 on this slate. As it is, both can be used at RB2 or FLEX. Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s value will only come into play if Jones is out. Green Bay’s Aaron Jones has been effective all season despite Green Bay’s desire to mix and match at the position. Tampa is tough as nails to run against, but with question marks for every other team still alive at RB, you have to consider Jones the safest of all of the RBs on the slate. Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon will split the C-O-P role but can be avoided in all but Showdown slate play.

Antonio Brown was my biggest miss last week. I’d like to claim that it was predominantly due to his early exit due to injury. It chapped my hide some to watch Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller steal his catches in the second half last week. It appears that Brown will miss this week, but if he were to make it he would be a must-start WR3 considering his price. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have enjoyable prices as well. I’m of the belief that Jaire Alexander will follow Mike Evans, making him the weakest play of the three. Godwin should feast on the secondary coverages. Of course, if Brown is indeed out, you can consider Miller or Johnson as a punt WR3. Davante Adams proved last week that even when facing an elite CB, he could still get into the end zone. Tampa lacks even one elite corner. Yes, they did hold Michael Thomas down last week, but that felt more like Drew Brees holding him down than the Tampa secondary. Back in Week 6, Davante was held out of the end zone against Tampa. It was one of only three such occasions this season. He still led GB in every receiving statistical category that week. Allen Lazard missed that game forcing Green Bay to use depth guys like Malik Taylor and Darrius Shepard. Lazard is way better than those two. Allen is a great WR3 play this week. I especially like using him to gain access to the Packers’ offense if I’m paying up for Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill at my other WR spots (and cannot afford Adams). Marquez Valdes-Scantling tied Lazard with eight targets last week. He is used more often in the vertical passing game than Lazard (even though Lazard had the bomb TD last week). This leaves him slightly more TD-dependent. That said, when he connects with Rodgers it is usually 40+ yards downfield. He is not as safe a WR3 play as Lazard, but he certainly is in the conversation. Equanimeous St. Brown has seen a few more targets recently, but I doubt I’d go that far down the rabbit hole this week.

Cameron Brate has been more active in the passing game than Rob Gronkowski recently. Gronk had the huge game back in Week 6, but since then he has become extremely TD-dependent. Tampa also didn’t have Fournette or Brown in that game to steal middle of the field catches. I’d actually rank Brate and Gronk TE4 and TE5 this week – in that order. Robert Tonyan is also TD-dependent, scoring in six of his last seven games of the season. That said, he is racking up a decent amount of catches inside the twenties as well. Only six teams allowed more receptions and TDs to the TE position during the regular season. So, I have no problem using Tonyan at TE2. I may even use him paired with Travis Kelce in a Double-TE lineup. I’m not excited about any of the backup TEs for Green Bay though.

Tampa’s front seven flustered Aaron Rodgers in their earlier meeting. I wouldn’t count on a repeat. The NFL won’t allow either of these QBs to take a sack without a penalty, so I’m not high on GB’s defense either. They are particularly hard to swallow at the highest cost on the board. Still, each of these teams has holes on their offensive line right now. Obviously, if Patrick Mahomes is out, Buffalo’s defense will be massively owned. Otherwise, I’m likely riding with the Chiefs. These two defenses would be more pivot plays.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Two words, “Concussion Protocol”. These two words will define the entirety of this week for this game. Buffalo advance to this round following a concussion suffered by their opposing QB last week. Meanwhile, The Chiefs survived last week despite Patrick Mahomes getting knocked out late in the game. Josh Allen was limited to 122-2 back in Week 6 at home. It was one of his three worst games of the season. It wasn’t a great game for Mahomes either. Still, this week with all the marbles on the line. I cannot expect that these two won’t be lighting up the scoreboards. If Mahomes doesn’t play all bets are off on this game. Chad Henne is an above-average backup QB. Buffalo has a solid defense though. The Bills will not curl up and die as Cleveland did. Henne would be no more than a pure punt play based on the assumption that KC’s offense is elite enough to perform even with the understudy at the helm.

Devin Singletary saw twice as many touches as Zack Moss in their earlier meeting. Moss is done for the year and KC has been pretty shoddy against the run, but I still do not trust Singletary as anything more than RB3 this week. Plus, Buffalo is still giving touches to scrubs like Antonio Williams and T.J. Yeldon. Not to mention that Buffalo just signed Devonta Freeman to a free agent deal for depth. If Freeman is activated for this game he could be a sneaky FLEX play. I’m not going to waste a slot on Williams or Yeldon though. Back in Week 6, Clyde Edwards-Helaire destroyed Buffalo. He posted an absurd 30 touches for 169 yards. Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson chipped in an additional 58 total yards and Williams vultured a TD from CEH.  Le’Veon Bell wasn’t a part of the Chiefs’ offense for that game. He wasn’t really a part of the Chiefs’ offense this past weekend either. Darrel Williams led the way, and he makes a great RB1/2 play if CEH is once again out. If Helaire returns, I would use him as an RB2 and Darrel as a FLEX (although not in the same lineup). Bell is no more than a begging FLEX play here. It is actually a good matchup, but it was clear last week that he is running behind D-Will. You may think the game script could make Bell the play since he is more likely to see passing down work, but Buffalo is much worse against RBs on the ground than through the air. So the upside just isn’t there.

Stefon Diggs joins Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams as your WR1 options. In reality, you should be able to afford two of them. Diggs is a great play here since he is the cheapest of the three. Cole Beasley did nothing last week. That was not optimum. I have to assume that he is not 100% healed from his knee injury, but the matchup last week wasn’t great either. In his stead, John Brown had a big game. I actually like Smoky this week, since KC can be beaten over the top. Brown may be especially valuable if Bashaud Breeland misses this game due to a concussion he suffered on Sunday. Either Brown or Beasley could be used as your WR3 if you choose to use Hill and Davante up top. Gabriel Davis also disappeared last week with Brown’s return to the forefront. It is too bad he doesn’t run Beasley’s route tree. Isaiah McKenzie may be the better deep dive option if Cole cannot go. Obviously, all of the Chiefs’ passing game weapons value will be diluted if Mahomes does not play. Tyreek Hill is electric enough to have value either way. He may even see more touches in the ground game if Henne gets the start. Raise your hand if you’ve heard this one before, “Sammy Watkins is inactive”. If he plays he gets WR3 consideration at best (even with Mahomes). I feel safer using Mecole Hardman than Watkins or Demarcus Robinson. Hardman can be a standalone WR3 regardless of whether you have Hill in your lineup. Robinson could be a punt WR3 at best (but only with Mahomes at the helm). I’ll leave Byron Pringle for my Showdown lineups.

Dawson Knox is a sneaky TE play this week. I actually have him ranked third overall. KC has struggled badly of late with opposing TEs. Much like Tonyan at a higher price, I love the roll of the dice of using Knox in a Double-TE with Travis Kelce. Speaking of Kelce, if he isn’t in your lineup at TE this week just quit. You 100% CAN afford him no matter who else you roster, so just freakin’ do it.

I’m going to use Buffalo’s defense if Mahomes is out. Otherwise, I will have a lot of exposure to the Chiefs’ defense here. Buffalo will score, but KC has some very solid pass rushers and multiple turnover-happy defensive backs.

 

Here are my recommended lineups.

At DK: $7.6K for Patrick Mahomes (or $6.5K for Aaron Rodgers), $4.6K for Ronald Jones, $5K for Clyde Edwards-Helaire (0r 4.8K for Darrel Williams), $7.2K for Tyreek Hill (or $8K for Davante Adams paired with Rodgers), $11.2K total for Stefon Diggs and Allen Lazard, $8K for Travis Kelce, $2.8K for Dawson Knox at FLEX, and $3.1K for the Chiefs’ defense.

At FD: $8.7K for Rodgers, $6.2K for CEH (or $6K for D. Williams), $5.6K for R. Jones, $8.4K for Hill, $8.3K for Diggs, $5.7K for Lazard, $8.6K for Kelce. $4.7K for Knox at FLEX, and $3.7K for the Buccaneers’ defense.

At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Mahomes (or Josh Allen), Rodgers at SF, CEH (or D. Williams), and R. Jones at RB, Knox at FLEX, Tyreek (or Diggs), Adams, and John Brown at WR, and Kelce at TE.

 

Quarterback

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes	$7,600	$9,000
Josh Allen	$6,900	$8,500
Aaron Rodgers	$6,500	$8,700
Tom Brady	$6,100	$7,800
Chad Henne	$5,000	$6,500

Weekly strategy – There really isn’t a bad play this week at QB. Obviously, if Patrick Mahomes is out there, he needs to be in your lineup. Aaron Rodgers is my pivot if Mahomes doesn’t suit up. I have a feeling most others will pivot to Josh Allen, but Rodgers’ matchup is better.

Pay to Play:

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. BUF ($7,600 DK, $9,000 FD) If we 100% knew that Patrick Mahomes was starting this week, he would easily receive a GREEN rating on both sites. Buffalo’s biggest passing game weakness is against TEs, so stack Mahomes and Kelce. Mahomes’ final line in their earlier meeting was subpar. This was mainly due to Clyde Edwards-Helaire going nutzoid. CEH’s status for this week is still up in the air. If he remains out, Mahomes may throw it 60 times.

Stay Away:

Tom Brady, Buccaneers @ GB ($6,100 DK, $7,800 FD) The Buccaneers throttled Green Bay earlier this year. Still, Tom Brady had a vanilla final line. He didn’t have Antonio Brown in that game, but he also knew that Green Bay was rotten versus the run. The matchup should produce more points for both veteran signal-callers this time, but considering the closeness in price, I’d rather go with the more certain option.

Value Play:

Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. TB ($6,500 DK, $8,700 FD) Aaron Rodgers may be the second-highest priced choice on FD, but he is still a value on DK. Plus, if Mahomes is out, many will pivot to Josh Allen. I’d rather pivot to Rodgers who struggled in his earlier matchup versus TB, as I believe he will be lesser-owned. Running the ball against Tampa is impossible, Green Bay’s only chance to win this week will fall upon the arm of Rodgers. Aaron knows this, and he won’t let the Pack down again.

 

Running Back

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Aaron Jones	$6,500	$8,000
Leonard Fournette	$5,300	$7,200
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	$5,000	$6,200
Darrel Williams	$4,800	$6,000
Ronald Jones	$4,600	$5,600
Devin Singletary	$4,500	$5,800
Jamaal Williams	$4,400	$5,000
Le’Veon Bell	$4,100	$5,100
Devonta Freeman	XXXX	$4,800
AJ Dillon	$4,000	$4,700
Antonio Williams	$4,000	$4,500
Ke’Shawn Vaughn	$4,000	$4,500
T.J. Yeldon	$4,000	$4,700

Weekly strategy Aaron Jones and Devin Singletary are the closest thing to lead backs this week. Unfortunately, both still split carries, just not to the extent of the others. Plus, Jones has the toughest matchup of any of the starting backs and Singletary is the least-talented of any of the starting backs. At this point, I will likely fade both of them and take my chances on whoever starts for TB and KC. There is also virtually zero percent chance that I will roster a running back at FLEX. This means waiting until later in the week to set your RB lineup. You will need to trust the coach-speak as to who will start. At this point, it appears that the combo to play is Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ronald Jones. However, if Jones has a setback or if Clyde Edwards-Helaire fails to get a clean bill of health, you may need to pivot to Darrel Williams or Leonard Fournette.  As of now, Devonta Freeman is only listed in the player pool on FD, if Buffalo activates him for the game, he could be a sneaky punt play.

Pay to Play:

KC Starting RB, Chiefs vs. BUF ($5,000 DK, $6,200 FD) or ($4,800 DK, $6,000 FD)
It doesn’t matter if it is Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Darrel Williams that is the lead back for KC this week. Whichever one is the one, will have a huge game this week. Their prices are also nearly identical so they become completely interchangeable. Early reports have CEH pushing to play. He destroyed Buffalo in their earlier meeting. Meanwhile, Darrel Williams has been a goal-line vulture all year and he has looked the part the last few weeks given the chance to be the primary ball carrier. Whoever starts will get more touches than normal this week as KC attempts to protect Patrick Mahomes from excessive hits.

Stay Away:

Aaron Jones, Packers vs. TB ($6,500 DK, $8,000 FD)
Aaron Jones scored in the earlier game against TB. He also finished with 10 carries for 15 yards. This is just a microcosm of how elite the TB run defense is. If Jones didn’t have to worry about sharing touches with AJ Dillon and Jamaal Williams, I would consider him a play based on volume. Unfortunately, he does have to share. There is no way to legitimize using him at this salary in this matchup.

Value Play:

Ronald Jones, Buccaneers @ GB ($4,600 DK, $5,600 FD)
Leonard Fournette was not active for the earlier meeting between these two teams. That helped Ronald Jones post 121 total yards and a pair of scores. Upon his return, Fournette has become the passing game option for TB while Jones was the early-down back. Then Jones got hurt and Fournette took over all of the touches and he was pretty good. Of course, now Ronald Jones has returned and he is once again getting half of the touches. Either of these RBs would be a top option if the other wasn’t there. Ronald Jones had the big earlier game and GB is bad against the position. Plus, Jones is cheaper than Fournette, so he is my choice between the two. Of course, if Jones suffers a setback, then Fournette becomes RB1 and the KC back of the week becomes RB2.

 

Wide Receiver

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Davante Adams	$8,000	$8,900
Tyreek Hill	$7,200	$8,400
Stefon Diggs	$7,000	$8,300
Mike Evans	$5,800	$6,600
Chris Godwin	$5,400	$6,800
Antonio Brown	$4,700	$5,800
John Brown	$4,300	$5,600
Allen Lazard	$4,200	$5,700
Cole Beasley	$4,100	$5,700
Mecole Hardman	$4,000	$5,300
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	$3,900	$5,500
Sammy Watkins	$3,800	$5,400
Demarcus Robinson	$3,700	$4,800
Gabriel Davis	$3,500	$5,000
Scotty Miller	$3,400	$4,900
Byron Pringle	$3,200	$4,700
Isaiah McKenzie	$3,100	$4,600
Equanimeous St. Brown	$3,000	$4,700
Tyler Johnson	$3,000	$4,600

Weekly strategy – This is the week to blow your wad on WR. Mike Evans is the only high-priced option that I would recommend fading. Even then, his price isn’t absurd considering his TD upside. Just know that he will see the Jaire Alexander shadow. Rostering all three of Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill will be very tough. Still, you will need to choose at least two of them. Whichever one does not get invited to the dance, consider using one of his underlings (Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Cole Beasley, and John Brown) at WR3. The only other WR3 option that I like would be the third-WR for TB. Antonio Brown would be an obvious pivot choice, but he is doubtful for this week’s game. In the event that he cannot play, Scotty Miller could be a sneaky WR3 fill-in. Any of these WR3 choices could also be your FLEX play.

Pay to Play:

Davante Adams, Packers vs. TB ($8,000 DK, $8,900 FD)
Davante Adams failed to score in his earlier meeting with TB. It was one of only three games all year in which he did not score. It was his first game back from injury and he still received ten targets so it wasn’t as if he was awful. Plus, Green Bay was short-handed at WR with Allen Lazard out leaving Adams to face double coverage all day. That week Adams actually outproduced Tyreek Hill versus BUF and Mike Evans versus GB. He also finished with more yards than Stefon Diggs versus KC, but Diggs did score a TD. In the twelve games since then, Adams has 16 touchdowns. He even scored last week against Jalen Ramsey. Tampa Bay will have no answer for him here.

Stay Away:

Mike Evans, Buccaneers @ GB ($5,800 DK, $6,600 FD) After a so-so start to the year, Green Bay has held all outside-WR1s since Week 13 out of the end zone. In their earlier meeting, Mike Evans was held to just one catch. That was also only one of six games all season that Evans failed to catch a TD pass. In Evans’ defense, Tampa didn’t have the services of Antonio Brown in that game to draw attention. Still, Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller filled in fine, and Johnson scored continuing the trend of GB struggling more with slot WRs. At his price, Evans isn’t an awful play. I’m just concerned that Brown might miss this week as well putting Evans into even tougher coverage. Considering how close their salaries are I feel safer using Chris Godwin or Brown if he suits up.

Value Play:

John Brown, Bills @ KC ($4,300 DK, $5,600 FD)
Cole Beasley was clearly not 100% last week. Fortunately for Buffalo, John Brown appears to be 100% for the first time all season. We know that Buffalo will be forced to throw excessively in this game to keep up with the Chiefs’ offense. One of the easiest attacks on the Chiefs is with the home-run ball. That is Brown’s specialty. Brown missed the earlier contest with KC and his absence may have been the difference in why Buffalo lost. Making things potentially easier for Brown this week, one of KC’s top corners, Bashaud Breeland may miss this game with a concussion

 

Tight End

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Travis Kelce	$8,000	$8,600
Robert Tonyan	$3,600	$5,700
Rob Gronkowski	$3,200	$5,200
Cameron Brate	$3,000	$5,000
Dawson Knox	$2,800	$4,700
Dominique Dafney	$2,500	$4,200
Jace Sternberger	$2,500	$4,100
Lee Smith	$2,500	$4,200
Marcedes Lewis	$2,500	$4,300

Weekly strategy – This is a great week to use the Double-TE play. Travis Kelce is a set-it-and-forget-it TE1 option. Then it is just a matter of who to pair with him. Robert Tonyan has a great matchup, but his FD price is a tad spendy. Cameron Brate has outperformed his running mate Rob Gronkowski recently. Plus, the Packers are also bad against the position. Then there is my favorite combo play, Dawson Knox. Kansas City has been one of the worst against TEs over the last month plus.

Pay to Play:

Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. BUF ($8,000 DK, $8,600 FD)
Travis Kelce is having one of the greatest TE seasons in history. This week he faces a Buffalo team that has allowed the second-most yards and receptions to the position during the regular season. He already had a huge game against Buffalo this year and another is set to unfold here.

Stay Away:

Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers @ GB ($3,200 DK, $5,200 FD) The matchup for Rob Gronkowski isn’t bad. In fact, it is quite favorable. In their earlier meeting, Gronk paced the offense for Tampa Bay. What concerns me is that Cameron Brate has actually been outperforming Gronk so far this postseason. Even near the end of the regular season, we saw more Brate and less Gronk. Rob salvaged some of his value late in the year with a few short TDs, but he is becoming more and more TD-dependent. At $3.2K on DK that is a very safe play, as a TD puts him at nearly 3X already. His issue is that $5.2K salary on FD. Of course, if he doesn’t score he becomes a negative asset on both sites.

Value Play:

Dawson Knox, Bills @ KC ($2,800 DK, $4,700 FD)
After last week, the Chiefs have now allowed 29-359-4 to the TE position over their last five games. Meanwhile, Dawson Knox has started to establish his worth in the Buffalo offense. If Cole Beasley remains limited this week, it could mean even more usage for Knox. At this price, it won’t take much for him to return 3X value.

Now that we have gotten past the “Super” wildcard weekend, we can get down to real brass tacks. Eight teams are left. Four games this weekend. Will there be another big upside this week or will the favorites prevail? Does it even matter which team wins? We are here to help you win money regardless of which NFL team cashes the victory check.

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers

Who will start at QB for the Rams this week? John Wolford was decapitated early last week. Jared Goff played the rest of the game despite his throwing hand thumb being surgically repaired less than two weeks prior. It was clear to anyone who watched the game that he is not 100%. Green Bay is among the ten-best in terms of holding an opponent’s passing offense out of the end zone. They are also top-ten in passing yards allowed to the opposition. Obviously, a 90% Goff is historically good.  a better play than a 100% Wolford. Still, with so many solid QBs on this slate, it is hard to justify using either of them. Whoever goes under center will likely be handing the ball off a lot anyway as Green Bay is rotten against the run. Aaron Rodgers is hardly an optimal play this week either. I mean he is Aaron Rodgers, and he does seem to succeed even where others fail. That said, the Rams defense is historically good. Rodgers has thrown for three or more scores twelve times this year, but Los Angeles has given up multiple passing TDs only five times. Aaron’s DK price is ok, but his FD price is too high considering the prices of better options around him.

Cam Akers has overcome the Rams’ desire to use an RBBC. His talent (combined with an injury to Darrell Henderson) forced the Rams to give him the touch load that he rightfully deserved. On this slate, he is no worse than RB4 and his price is very inviting against a bad run defense. The biggest issue Akers may face is a negative game script if the Packers jump out to a big lead early. Malcolm Brown is TD-dependent at this point. He can be saved for Showdown slate usage. Aaron Jones’ usage has been devoid of reason in the last few weeks. It is no surprise that he is anxious to depart via free agency. The Rams are nearly as good against the run as they are the pass. So, Jones will be no more than a pivot play for me. Jamaal Williams returned Week 17, but he didn’t get enough touches to be relevant here. Both he and AJ Dillon can remain on your bench.

Assuming that Cooper Kupp’s knee is good to go (And reports are that it is), He should be one of the top WR2 options this week. Jaire Alexander will likely shadow Robert Woods this week. This isn’t a death sentence for Woods, but it definitely gives a bump in potential targets towards Kupp. Josh Reynolds wasn’t even targeted last week (in a great matchup spot). I put most of that blame on the Goff injury. Either way, I’m not ready to trust him again here. Van Jefferson can be left to Showdown slate play. Davante Adams versus Jalen Ramsey is the storyline this week. Last week, DK Metcalf got a few licks in on Ramsey. Fortunately for DFS players, Metcalf had a mildly reduced salary. Davante does not get a Ramsey discount. That is because he has gotten it done all season regardless of defensive shadow. Still, if there was ever a week to fade Adams, this is it. With Adams busy hand-checking with Ramsey, expect Aaron Rodgers to throw more passes towards Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Both are elite WR3 options. I wouldn’t go as deep as Equanimeous St. Brown though.

Tyler Higbee has outproduced Gerald Everett of late. Neither is a great play here against a Green Bay defense that has stymied opposing TEs. It should be noted that in Wolford’s earlier start, Everett received nearly twice as many targets as Higbee. Meanwhile, the Rams’ stats against opposing TEs look very good. Still, at a closer look, you will see that they have faced only one elite TE since Week 6. If you fade Travis Kelce’s salary, using Robert Tonyan is not a bad thought. I wouldn’t bother with any of Tonyan’s backups though.

The Rams defense is very good and their price is ridiculously low because of the perceived matchup. Take advantage of this fiscal miscalculation by the sites. As for Green Bay, their price is the highest but I want nothing to do with them unless Wolford gets the start.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

A second Saturday game featuring a top-tier defense versus an elite offense. At least Lamar Jackson has a better chance of hanging with Buffalo’s offense than Jared Goff would have of staying with the Pack. Buffalo is among the best at stopping passing TDs, but they are among the worst at keeping QBs from rushing for TDs. This game could be a sneaky “over” game. Everyone and their sister will be on Patrick Mahomes, so using either Jackson or Josh Allen here may be a worthwhile pivot. Allen’s matchup isn’t ideal either, but both should produce a couple of TDs, and each will score on the ground.

J.K. Dobbins scored last week to save a mediocre line where he split touches with Gus Edwards. Still, both of them paled in comparison to the ground numbers put up by Lamar. The matchup is decent here but I think I prefer Akers at RB2. Edwards gets enough touches to have a role here. He could be a cheap punt FLEX option. Count me as one of the analysts that were shocked that Buffalo sought out Zack Moss this offseason. I loved what we saw of Devin Singletary last year, and now he gets to be the man again. Obviously, Josh Allen (and all of his TEs) are vultures to Devin’s scoring chances, but at least he doesn’t have to worry about not being on the field in the red zone anymore.

Marquise Brown had another big week last week. I like him as a WR2 option this week. Meanwhile, Miles Boykin and Dez Bryant did nothing effectively taking them out of my consideration. The only other Ravens’ WR to consider is Willie Snead at punt WR3. John Brown killed my DFS mojo last week with his goose egg. As did Corey Davis, who also ate a big plate of nothing as WR2 going against Baltimore’s defense. I cannot fathom back-to-back zilches for Brown, but I’m still not overly excited to play him. At WR1 last week, A.J. Brown got it done versus this defense. A.J.’s success bodes well for Stefon Diggs here. He isn’t my favorite play of the weekend, but I don’t hate him as a pivot from Adams or Tyreek Hill. Cole Beasley has developed into a reduced-price Cooper Kupp (with who he will split ownership shares). His value is much higher in PPR, so I’m more likely to use him at WR2 on DK. If you don’t use Diggs or Beasley, I’d definitely consider Gabriel Davis at WR3.

Mark Andrews is the best per-dollar matchup among all of the TEs on the slate this week. Obviously, Kelce is a great play, but you can get big numbers for $2K less with Andrews against one of the league’s worst defenses against TEs. Dawson Knox’s matchup isn’t horrible but he is still no better than TE3 on Saturday-only and no better than TE5 overall.

Both of these defenses are pretty good, but both of these offenses are high-end. I’ll fade both of them here.

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs

Baker Mayfield got it done last week versus the Steelers. He finished the day with 263-3, but the Browns’ defense put him into the position to be this successful. It just didn’t feel like he was doing that much to cause the final score. Despite playing from ahead most weeks, Kansas City hasn’t allowed a ton of passing yards or TDs. They are at the worst in the middle of the pack on defense against opposing passing games. The Chiefs are however amongst the best at picking off the opposition, so garbage time may mean INTs here. The one thing that the Chiefs have struggled with is QBs rushing for TDs. That won’t help Mayfield anyway since he has only four rushing TDs for his career and only one this season. Realistically, the only QB that I would rank below Baker this week is Goff/Wolford. As for Patrick Mahomes, he is the top option this week, and his price (while high) is not obnoxious compared to the other higher-priced QBs.

Nick Chubb is probably my favorite RB play this week. His price is reasonable. The Chiefs have been sieve-like against the run and Cleveland will need to run a lot to try and keep the ball away from KC. Even WHEN the game script eventually goes to pot, Chubb will be used in the passing game too. Kareem Hunt makes a great FLEX option as well since his price provides you the flexibility to fit in all the Chiefs’ studs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still questionable for this week. Cleveland is better against the run than the pass, but KC doesn’t run the ball much anyway. In what would be his first game back, I wouldn’t use him as more than a FLEX option. If CEH doesn’t play, I may consider Le’Veon Bell for an RB2 slot, but he still is probably best suited for FLEX usage. I like Darrel Williams a lot, but if both Bell & CEH are on the field there just won’t be enough touches for him.

Much like Cole Beasley and Cooper Kupp, Jarvis Landry is a PPR beast. Unlike both of them, Landry has been catching TDs/running in TDs/throwing TDs often as well. We know Cleveland will eventually have to throw the ball here making both Landry and Rashard Higgins great run-it-back plays at WR2 and WR3 respectively. You can consider Donovan Peoples-Jones for your Showdown lineup, but there won’t be enough scoring here to make him a solid full slate play. Tyreek Hill is your WR1 overall (Yes, even over Davante Adams). Cleveland is bad against the pass, and we just saw Ben Roethlisberger dissect them in the second half last week. Sammy Watkins will likely return from his calf injury and he makes a decent WR3 option. If Watkins suffers a setback and doesn’t suit up, you can then consider Demarcus Robinson. Mecole Hardman did not have as huge of a Week 17 as I would’ve liked. He is still a more intriguing WR3 option than either Robinson or Watkins since he has the ability to score from anywhere on the field.

Kansas City is actually quite crappy against opposing TEs. They have been particularly picked on the last couple of weeks of the season. Austin Hooper has four scores in his last six games, including last week. I like him to score again here. David Njoku is more of a TD-dependent shot in the dark right now. He can be left for Showdown play. I feel like a broken record but Travis Kelce is also the top option at the position this week. Cleveland has struggled against the TE position since the Obama administration was in office. His price is high, but if you take some risks at WR3 and Defense, you should be able to fit him in.

The Chiefs are going to be the most-owned defense on the slate – and deservingly so. I will probably look elsewhere to diversify but don’t blame you for eating the chalk here. If you are thinking of using the Browns’ defense, just Venmo me your money and save us all some time.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

We finally get the QB-Retirement Bowl we all deserve. Tom Brady claims he is coming back next year and Drew Brees is rumored to be walking away. Of course, the results of this game could alter the space-time continuum for either of them. Brady is facing a Saints’ passing defense that is starting to turn things around after a poor start to the year. Brees is facing a Tampa pass defense that has just been bad all season long. Brady struggled in their two earlier meetings throwing for an average of 224 yards per game while passing for only two TDs and throwing five INTs. Brees did much better throwing for six scores with no picks, but he averaged only 191 passing yards per game. You can throw all of that out the window today though. This will be pinball football. Outside of Mahomes (and even above Rodgers), I want all the exposure to this passing game that I can get.

Ronald Jones ruined many DFS lineups last week with an NBA-esque after the game had started late-scratch announcement. If he suits up, he may be used sparingly, so he will likely ride my pine. Plus, in a game that figures to have a lot of points – but that also features two studly run defenses – I want the passing back Leonard Fournette instead. If Jones doesn’t play Ke’Shawn Vaughn could have marginal FLEX value, but not enough to go crazy. Latavius Murray left last week’s game with an injury. It doesn’t sound too serious but watch out for updates. If by chance he doesn’t play Alvin Kamara becomes even more of a must-start. If they are both active, Murray gets FLEX consideration and Kamara is still a top-2 RB1 choice. One wrinkle to consider is that FD has decided to move Taysom Hill to the running back position so you can take a chance on him outside of the QB position (Note he still only qualifies at QB on DK). Obviously, you cannot play him at QB on DK – that would be insane. I would certainly consider him as a FLEX play on FD though.

Antonio Brown has been a monster of late. He also won’t have to worry about Marshon Lattimore who will be assigned to either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. Brown is a borderline WR1, but he makes an even better WR2 slotted next to Tyreek in your lineup. I can appreciate using either Evans or Godwin but will concentrate my interest on Brown at a cheaper price. Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson are not seeing enough targets to consider outside of Showdown contests. Michael Thomas returned for New Orleans last week and immediately scored. His first two games against TB were meh but you cannot argue with his massive target share most weeks. Emmanuel Sanders scored in each of the two earlier games. Against this defense, a hat trick is not out of the question. Deonte Harris had a huge game last week. He has been trending the right way, and I could see using him as a punt WR3. I won’t go any deeper on the Saints’ receiver tree though.

Cameron Brate actually outperformed Rob Gronkowski last week. Gronk did nothing in the earlier two games either. You can avoid him here. Considering the price (and the big game last week), you could play Brate. Still, there are so many solid plays at the position this week, that he is no more than a dart throw punt play. Jared Cook had a huge Week 1 against this defense and then a pedestrian Week 9. He actually tied for the team lead in targets last week, but he didn’t do much with them. There are just better options at this price point to choose from.

Normally, these two defenses are solid choices. Not this week. Points will be scored here. If you have to choose one of them, consider TB on FD where their price is extremely low.

 

Here are my recommended lineups.

At DK: $8K for Patrick Mahomes, $10.2K for Cam Akers and Devin Singletary, $8K for Tyreek Hill, $3.8K or $3.9K for either Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Allen Lazard, $3.5K for Deonte Harris, $7.8K for Travis Kelce, $5K for Mark Andrews (or $4.8K for Kareem Hunt) at FLEX, and $3.6K for the Chiefs’ defense.

At FD: $9.2K for Mahomes, $12.7K for Akers and Singletary, $8.8K for Tyreek, $6.4K for Antonio Brown, $5.2K for Harris, $8.5K for Kelce. $5.1K for Taysom Hill at FLEX, and $3.8K for the Rams’ defense.

At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Mahomes, Josh Allen at SF, Hunt, and Akers at RB, Singletary at FLEX, Tyreek, Antonio, and Cole Beasley at WR, and Andrews at TE.

 

Quarterback

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes	$8,000	$9,200
Lamar Jackson	$7,600	$8,000
Josh Allen	$7,400	$8,800
Aaron Rodgers	$6,900	$8,400
Tom Brady	$6,300	$7,700
Drew Brees	$5,600	$7,300
Baker Mayfield	$5,300	$7,400
Jared Goff	$5,200	$6,700
Taysom Hill	$5,000	XXXX
John Wolford	$4,900	$6,000

Weekly strategy – Patrick Mahomes is pricy but he also poised for a huge game. I’m going to get him into as many lineups as I can. Lamar Jackson is an ok pivot. If I choose to pay less at QB, I will use one of the Drew Brees vs. Tom Brady matchup. Taysom Hill qualifies only at RB on FD, he might make a sneaky FLEX or RB2 play there.

Pay to Play:

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs vs. CLE ($8,000 DK, $9,200 FD) Among the teams still alive in the playoffs, only Tampa Bay has allowed more passing yards and no team has allowed more passing TDs than Cleveland. Enter Patrick Mahomes and his 38 passing TDs this year. Stack away Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, and then finagle the rest of your lineup in around them.

Stay Away:

Josh Allen, Bills vs. BAL ($7,400 DK, $8,800 FD) This isn’t the best matchup for Josh Allen, but he has been successful against various good defenses already this year. Still, only the Rams have allowed fewer passing TDs all year. Plus, snow is in the forecast along with winds up to 25 MPH. Allen has the benefit of being adept with his legs, and with Zack Moss out Allen may be even more prone to vulture a TD run. That said, if I use him it will be on DK or FB, but his FD price is too close to Mahomes.

Value Play:

Drew Brees, Saints vs. TB ($5,600 DK, $7,300 FD) As I mentioned above, Tampa has allowed the most passing yards of any team still alive in the playoffs. This game has shootout written all over it. I want a lot of exposure to both Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Brady has a better arsenal of weapons, but New Orleans is also much better against the pass than Tampa. In the end, they will both produce solid lines, so I will take Drew Brees for a few bucks less.

 

Running Back

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Alvin Kamara	$7,900	$9,000
Aaron Jones	$6,800	$7,800
Nick Chubb	$6,600	$8,200
J.K. Dobbins	$6,000	$6,500
Cam Akers	$5,700	$7,000
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	$5,500	$6,100
Ronald Jones	$5,200	$6,300
Le’Veon Bell	$5,100	$6,000
Leonard Fournette	$4,900	$6,300
Taysom Hill	XXXX	$5,100
Kareem Hunt	$4,800	$6,200
Devin Singletary	$4,500	$5,700
Jamaal Williams	$4,400	$5,200
Latavius Murray	$4,300	$5,200
Gus Edwards	$4,200	$5,300
Malcolm Brown	$4,100	$5,000
AJ Dillon	$4,000	$4,600
Darrel Williams	$4,000	$4,800
Ke’Shawn Vaughn	$4,000	$4,700
Patrick Ricard	$4,000	$4,600

Weekly strategy Alvin Kamara is in a potential blowup spot if Latavius Murray cannot go this week. His price tag however makes him very hard to roster if you want to stack the Chiefs’ passing attack. Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers are my three favorite plays. They are all more moderately-priced than Kamara. Kareem Hunt and Gus Edwards are valuable cost-saving FLEX plays. That said, my favorite FLEX options are Leonard Fournette who could see more work if Ronald Jones is out, and Devin Singletary who will see more work with Zack Moss out.

Pay to Play:

Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. TB ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD)
Tampa Bay is elite against the run. They also allowed the most receptions to opposing RBs of any team this season. Alvin Kamara led all backs in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs this year. This includes ten catches against TB in their two earlier meetings. I don’t love the FD price, but if Latavius Murray misses this game, Kamara may still reach 3X there.

Stay Away:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs vs. CLE ($5,500 DK, $6,100 FD)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on track to return this week, but don’t get too excited to play him here. First off, Kansas City prefers to throw the ball on most downs rather than run, and Helaire has fallen behind Le’Veon Bell as the pass-catching back for KC. Secondly, Helaire has only scored in four games all season and only once since Week 10. Third, he is coming off of a major injury. Fourth, Cleveland is very good against the run. Only seven teams allowed fewer rushing yards this year. If you have to use a KC back this week, I’d go with Bell.

Value Play:

Devin Singletary, Bills vs. BAL ($4,500 DK, $5,700 FD)
At this price, it would be crazy to not use Devin Singletary. Singletary looked to be en route to fantasy stardom down the stretch last season. Then the Bills went out and got Zack Moss. Moss and Josh Allen have capped Singletary’s value all season by stealing all of the TD love. This week Moss is out of the equation, so Devin only has to deal with Allen’s vultures. Baltimore has allowed the fewest RB rushing TDs this season, but the combo yardage and the threat of score easily equate to 3X potential for Singletary.

 

Wide Receiver

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Davante Adams	$8,600	$9,000
Tyreek Hill	$8,000	$8,800
Stefon Diggs	$7,300	$8,600
Michael Thomas	$6,700	$7,200
Mike Evans	$6,400	$7,100
Chris Godwin	$6,100	$7,500
Robert Woods	$5,900	$6,600
Jarvis Landry	$5,600	$6,900
Antonio Brown	$5,400	$6,400
Cooper Kupp	$5,300	$6,100
Marquise Brown	$5,200	$6,500
Cole Beasley	$4,900	$5,900
Sammy Watkins	$4,800	$5,400
John Brown	$4,600	$5,500
Emmanuel Sanders	$4,500	$5,700
Demarcus Robinson	$4,300	$5,100
Rashard Higgins	$4,100	$5,300
Gabriel Davis	$4,000	$5,400
Allen Lazard	$3,900	$5,300
Mecole Hardman	$3,900	$5,200
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	$3,800	$5,500
Deonte Harris	$3,500	$5,200
Scotty Miller	$3,400	$4,700
Isaiah McKenzie	$3,300	$4,800
Willie Snead	$3,300	$5,000
Josh Reynolds	$3,200	$5,200
Marquez Calloway	$3,100	$4,700
Miles Boykin	$3,100	$4,900
Dez Bryant	$3,000	$4,800
Donovan Peoples-Jones	$3,000	$4,700
Equanimeous St. Brown	$3,000	$4,700
Van Jefferson	$3,000	$4,900

Weekly strategy – Tyreek Hill versus Cleveland is the WR1 that makes the most sense. Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams are both studs, but they each face dominating defenses. Realistically, Michael Thomas would be the closest thing to a pivot for me. I love Antonio Brown at WR2, but possession WRs like Jarvis Landry, Cooper Kupp, and Cole Beasley are also in play. WR3 for me will be one of the Packers, Rashard Higgins, Josh Reynolds, or my favorite choice Deonte Harris.

Pay to Play:

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs vs. CLE ($8,000 DK, $8,800 FD)
Only five teams allowed more WR receiving TDs this season than Cleveland. They have struggled with every breed of WR (field stretchers, tall possession guys, WR1s, WR2s, slot machines). Tyreek Hill is the only safe option among the highest-priced WRs, start him and watch him score on the Chiefs’ first play from scrimmage.

Stay Away:

Davante Adams, Packers vs. LAR ($8,600 DK, $9,000 FD) Jalen Ramsey proved this season that he is the best CB in football. This week he faces Davante Adams, who proved this season that he is the best WR in football. Adams’ elite-level talent will permit him to post 6-75-1 here. That would be WR1 territory in most leagues, but it is nowhere near enough to justify that FD salary.

Value Play:

Antonio Brown, Buccaneers @ NO ($5,400 DK, $6,400 FD)
Tom Brady and Antonio Brown are finally vibing just in time for a lengthy playoff run. We know that this will be a high-scoring game, so you want as much exposure as possible. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are also great plays, but they are both more expensive than Brown. Plus, Marshon Lattimore will be guarding one of Evans or Godwin leaving lesser coverage for Antonio. Whenever possible I want to use him at WR2.

 

Tight End

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Travis Kelce	$7,800	$8,500
Mark Andrews	$5,000	$6,600
Robert Tonyan	$4,200	$6,200
Jared Cook	$4,000	$5,600
Austin Hooper	$3,800	$5,500
Rob Gronkowski	$3,600	$5,600
Dawson Knox	$3,100	$5,000
Tyler Higbee	$3,000	$5,200
Cameron Brate	$2,900	$4,900
Gerald Everett	$2,700	$4,300
David Njoku	$2,600	$4,500
Adam Trautman	$2,500	$4,300

Weekly strategy – There is zero reasons to sweat playing most of the top options this week. Travis Kelce is a stud on a top offense. Mark Andrews is the WR1 on a team facing a team that is rotten against TEs. Robert Tonyan is the new-age Gronk standing alone in the endzone catching TDs from the league leader Aaron Rodgers. Then there is Austin Hooper who is cheaper than all of them and facing a KC team that has decided that covering TEs isn’t worth it recently. The punt options would include Dawson Knox, Cameron Brate, and Gerald Everett, but you shouldn’t need any of them. With so many great options up top, this may be the week to break out the Double-TE play.

Pay to Play:

Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. CLE ($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD)
Only three teams allowed more receptions or receiving TDs to opposing TEs. Meanwhile, only one player in all of football had more receiving yards than Travis Kelce. Kelce also scored and/or topped 70 receiving yards in every game except one this year. The price is high, and that is the only possible reason to fade him (especially with great options right below him). Still, 10-120-1 will more than makeup for the expense.

Stay Away:

Jared Cook, Saints vs. TB ($4,000 DK, $5,600 FD) Jared Cook had a good game last week, and one of his two earlier games against TB was solid. Still, Cook has become a bit TD-dependent and the return of Michael Thomas and the advancement of Adam Trautman and Deonte Harris do not help his overall target share. Plus, he is now dealing with a back issue at practice this week. His DK price isn’t absurd, but I trust the others in that price range more. 

Value Play:

Austin Hooper, Browns @ KC ($3,800 DK, $5,500 FD)
The Chiefs have allowed 23-284-4 to the TE position over their last four games. This propelled them to allowing the fifth-most yards and the seventh-most TDs to the position for the season. Meanwhile, Austin Hooper scored last week giving him TDs in four of his last six games. We know Cleveland is going to be playing from behind, so Hooper should be peppered with targets this week.

With an extra team added to both conference’s playoffs, we have two different slates for Wildcard weekend. I will break down each of them game-by-game and give you my Pay-To-Play, Stay Away, and Value Play for each position for each of the two split slates. However, before we do that allow me to give you my favorite plays on the combined slate at each site too!

 

Full Wildcard Slate:

Here are my Full Wildcard Slate recommended lineups.

At DK: $6.1K for Ben Roethlisberger, $14.5K for Jonathan Taylor and J.K. Dobbins, $5.5K for JuJu Smith-Schuster, $7.7K for Stefon Diggs, $5.4K for Marquise Brown, $3.4K for Tyler Higbee, $4.9K for J.D. McKissic at FLEX, and $2.4K for the Washington defense.

At FD: $7.5K for Big Ben, $15.6K for Taylor and Dobbins, $7.1K for McLaurin, $8.7K for Diggs, $6.5K for JuJu, $5.4K for Higbee. $5.4K for McKissic at FLEX, and $3.7K for the Washington defense.

At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Josh Allen, Big Ben at SF, Taylor, and McKissic at RB, Dobbins at FLEX, Diggs, JuJu, and Brown at WR, and Higbee at TE.

 

Saturday-Only Slate:

 

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills

Philip Rivers has a solid matchup here, but he is not the best QB among the playoff teams. Fortunately, his price tag is amenable to usage and he makes a nice option if you want to fit in all the studs at the other positions. Josh Allen is the highest-priced option on the slate and deservingly so. He is the best combo of talent level and opposition pass coverage-deficiency.

Buffalo is middle-of-the-pack against the run, but have given up more rushing TDs than receiving TDs to the position. This means that the highest-priced RB, Jonathan Taylor is borderline safe to play, but his cheaper backup Nyheim Hines (who is more involved in the passing game) is less likely to find success here. Indy has the best defense against the run on the slate. Plus, Zack Moss and Devin Singletary tend to vulture each others’ values. You can ignore both of them this week.

Buffalo has actually been fairly stingy against opposing WRs. Still, WR1s have posted solid lines against them periodically this year and particularly possession-style WR1s have had success. This puts T.Y. Hilton into WR2 consideration, but I won’t dive deep for Zach Pascal or Michael Pittman as anything more than a punt-WR3. Indy has been rotten against WRs for a little more than a month now. Stefon Diggs is the easy WR1 on this slate. Cole Beasley (if he plays) and John Brown are also both great WR2 options if you choose to fade Diggs. I’m probably not going to dig as far as Isaiah McKenzie except in Showdown games.

The Bills have one of the league’s worst defenses against the TE position. Unfortunately, Indy uses a trio of TEs limiting their individual value. Jack Doyle has actually out-targeted, out-caught, and reeled in more receiving yards than Mo Alie-Cox and Trey Burton combined over the last four games. So, if I was going to reach for a bargain bin TE, it would be Doyle. As for Dawson Knox, I love the talent that he has but Indy has been elite against TEs this year. I wouldn’t waste dollars on him with the Buffalo WRs all being safer plays against this defense. Of course, this also means ignore TD-dependent vulture Lee Smith as well.

Indy’s defense is very good, but they are facing the top QB on the slate. You can find a better option. Buffalo faces an immobile QB in Rivers and they have a reasonable price on DK and a great price on FD. I like them very much.

 

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Assuming that Jared Goff plays, he makes a so-so start against a Seattle defense that he has already struggled against twice this year. Seattle supposedly has this bad defense but Goff has not thrown for a TD against them in either contest. Plus, there is a legit threat that Goff doesn’t play because of his thumb. John Wolford did little through the air last week with Cooper Kupp out. Wolford did however have success running the ball and that is something that Seattle has struggled with this year. At his price (and assuming a return for Kupp), I’d almost rather play Wolford than Goff. After a meteoric start to the season, Russell Wilson has accounted for two or fewer TDs in seven of his last eight games. This included two games against the Rams during which he posted a total of just two TDs and an average of 237 passing yards. At his price, he is an avoid for me.

Cam Akers is clearly the lead back for the Rams as long as he is healthy. He played last week, but not very well. Still, assuming his value and volume, he is a near must-start at RB2 or FLEX. Darrell Henderson is out and Malcolm Brown is nothing more than a C-O-P back, who is TD-dependent. You can avoid him here. Chris Carson is the top option for Seattle. He is always a threat to lose carries due to the coach’s whim, but he is no worse than RB4 on the slate. Carlos Hyde missed last week due to a non-COVID illness. Plus, he has fallen behind the returned Rashaad Penny on the touch chart. Even if Hyde plays, he belongs on your bench. Penny (and Alex Collins)  could have some value in Showdown, but avoid them in the big tourneys.

Cooper Kupp was out last week due to COVID. With the short week, he may not be fully ready to go for this game (although he did get activated on Wednesday). Even if he does play, I’d be wary of using him as more than a WR2 at his price. Robert Woods is a much better WR2 option and even Josh Reynolds makes a safer per-dollar play at WR3. Van Jefferson was targeted eight times with Kupp out and with Wolford at QB. If Goff is out again, Jefferson could be a punt-WR3. However, if Goff starts, I believe he trusts Woods and Reynolds more. Last week was a Tyler Lockett week. That means he can be completed avoided this week. He has never had consecutive big games. Typically following one of his big games he posts a line of 4-36-0. Jalen Ramsey has held DK Metcalf in check for the first two games this year. Maybe the third time is the charm. I still don’t love the idea of playing him at this price. He is a contrarian play at best. David Moore is probably the best choice among Seattle WRs this week. At his price, he is a decent punt-WR3. Freddie Swain is too deep of a dive for this game.

Tyler Higbee fared well in both of the earlier meetings between these teams. He also has outproduced Gerald Everett over the last four weeks. On the thin slate, he is no worse than TE3. Everett can probably be avoided except in Showdown games. Greg Olsen missed Week 17 due to his foot injury. He didn’t do much when he returned in Week 16 either. I’d pass on him here. Jacob Hollister and Will Dissly have split the workload for the Seahawks. Hollister has seen more targets recently so he is a safe choice at TE4 or TE5. Dissly is also a usable punt-TE.

The Rams’ DK price is much more appealing than their FD price. They are still facing Seattle for the third time this year, so I would be a little hesitant counting on a huge game from them. The Seahawks are much cheaper, and if Wolford gets the start, they will be very popular. Making them hard to fade.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team

Tampa Tom Brady has looked like an absolute stud the last couple of weeks. He must have found the Fountain of Youth. This, however, will be a solid test for the old man. Washington has arguably the best defensive front in football. They also have a pass defense that has allowed the fewest passing yards and five more INTs than passing TDs. Brady has faced only three top-10 pass defenses this year (Carolina, the Bears, and the Rams). In those three games, he has thrown for a total of only 686-4. I hate to say it but I will have less exposure here than I probably should. Alex Smith gets to face a team that is much easier to throw against. At his price, I like him a lot. Although the team says they may rotate in Taylor Heinecke.

Running the ball should be easier for Tampa than throwing it. That said, Washington is no slouch against the run either. Ronald Jones is still a pretty solid RB2 option, even though he wasn’t used at all in the passing game last week. Leonard Fournette is once again just a passing-down back. I don’t expect TB to be far behind at any point in this game, so he will be virtually useless unless Jones coughs up a fumble early. Tampa is also elite against the run. This should scare Antonio Gibson owners. He isn’t a rotten option, but J.D. McKissic is the stud play here. He is nearly a must-start this week since Tampa has allowed the most RB receptions this year. At his price, he is basically a cheat code.

Mike Evans’ MRI showed no major damage, so he may return this week. I’m not counting on it. That looked much more severe. If he plays, it may just be as a decoy. Thus making him TD-dependent. At his price, that is useless. I almost hope he doesn’t play. Then at least Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown would be safer plays. It still isn’t a great matchup for any of them. Based on prices, Brown is the safest as a WR2 pivot. If Evans is out, you could also see Scotty Miller or Tyler Johnson get some play. Neither has done much since Brown’s arrival, so I would leave them for Showdown play. Terry McLaurin will battle Stefon Diggs for WR1 on this slate. I firmly support playing both of them. Both of the Simses are options at WR3, but I wouldn’t use either of them if I am also using McLaurin.

Rob Gronkowski has been TD-dependent most of the second half of the year. If Evans is out, that makes him a goal-line threat this week. Even if Evans plays, Gronk gets to take on a Washington defense that has been very TE-friendly. I love his DK price much more than his FD price, but I have zero issues with playing him on either of them. Logan Thomas looks like the next great TE stud. It is a shame that he is already 29 years old. Tampa Bay has actually been worse against the position than any other team on this slate except Buffalo. His price isn’t egregious, if you can afford it do it.

Most weeks, I’d support Tampa’s defense. This week, I don’t love their price point. At their price, the WFT defense might be the smart play, even against a QB that the league’s refs don’t allow to be sacked.

 

Here are my Saturday-Only Slate recommended lineups.

At DK: $7.5K for Josh Allen, $13K for Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers, $6.3K for Terry McLaurin, $7.7K for Stefon Diggs, $3.1K for Van Jefferson, $4.9K for Logan Thomas, $4.8K for J.D. McKissic at FLEX, and $2.4K for the Washington defense.

At FD: $9K for Allen, $14.9K for Taylor and Akers, $7.1K for McLaurin, $8.7K for Diggs, $4.8K for Josh Reynolds, $6.4K for Thomas. $5.4K for McKissic at FLEX, and $3.7K for the Washington defense.

At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Allen, Philip Rivers at SF, Akers, and Taylor at RB, McKissic at FLEX, McLaurin, Diggs, and T.Y. Hilton at WR, and Thomas at TE.

 

Quarterback

 

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Josh Allen	$7,500	$9,000
Tom Brady	$6,900	$8,000
Russell Wilson	$6,600	$7,400
Jared Goff	$6,000	$7,000
Philip Rivers	$5,400	$6,900
Alex Smith	$5,100	$6,500
John Wolford	$4,900	$6,200
Taylor Heinicke	$4,100	$5,000

Saturday strategy – Josh Allen, Philip Rivers, and Alex Smith (if he starts) will be the three I play the most. If John Wolford gets the start, I’ll throw out a couple of lineups on DK.

Pay to Play:

Josh Allen, Bills vs. IND ($7,500 DK, $9,000 FD)
Over the last month, Indianapolis has been the worst team of these six against the pass. Josh Allen is riding high going into the playoffs after torching an otherwise very strong Miami pass defense in Week 17.

Stay Away:

Russell Wilson, Seahawks vs. LAR ($6,600 DK, $7,400 FD) Russell Wilson has done very little in the two earlier meetings between these teams. He also has been cold in general since midway through the year. If I wanted a pivot from Alen, I would use Tom Brady for just a few bucks more.

Value Play:

Alex Smith, Football Team vs. TB ($5,100 DK, $6,500 FD)
Alex Smith is my favorite stacking option at QB. I intend to get as much access to Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, and Logan Thomas as my bank account will allow. Rostering those three, it only makes sense that I use their QB too. Running against TB Is hard so this game will fall onto Alex’s shoulders. Of course, right now it is possible that Smith might not start. If that is the case use, Philip Rivers, instead.

 

Running Back

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor	$7,900	$8,800
Chris Carson	$5,900	$7,000
Antonio Gibson	$5,700	$6,200
Ronald Jones	$5,500	$6,700
Cam Akers	$5,100	$6,100
J.D. McKissic	$4,800	$5,400
Nyheim Hines	$4,700	$5,600
Zack Moss	$4,600	$5,500
Leonard Fournette	$4,500	$5,200
Carlos Hyde	$4,400	$5,000
Devin Singletary	$4,300	$5,300
Malcolm Brown	$4,100	$4,900
Rashaad Penny	$4,000	$4,800

Saturday strategy Jonathan Taylor is the easy RB1, but RB2 is a little closer between Chris Carson, Ronald Jones, and Cam Akers. J.D. McKissic is the easy FLEX play this week, and he could be your RB2 if you use a fourth WR.

Pay to Play:

Jonathan Taylor, Colts @ BUF ($7,900 DK, $8,800 FD)
The price is high for Jonathan Taylor this week following his blow up in Week 17. Still, he is the safest option on the docket and the Bills are just so-so against the run. You have money to spend. This is the obvious place to spend it.

Stay Away:

Antonio Gibson, Redskins vs. TB ($5,700 DK, $6,200 FD)
Tampa is very hard to run the ball against, and there is little chance that the WFT will lead significantly at any point in this game. This means most of the Washington running game will go through our Value Play and not Antonio Gibson

Value Play:

J.D. McKissic, Football Team vs. TB ($4,800 DK, $5,400 FD)
Tampa has allowed the most RB receptions this season. That is J.D. McKissic’s role for the Football Team from Washington. There is a very real chance that he hauls in double-digit passes here.

 

Wide Receiver

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Stefon Diggs	$7,700	$8,700
Chris Godwin	$7,000	$7,800
Tyler Lockett	$6,900	$6,800
DK Metcalf	$6,700	$6,900
Mike Evans	$6,500	$7,600
Terry McLaurin	$6,300	$7,100
Robert Woods	$6,200	$6,700
Antonio Brown	$6,100	$6,500
Cooper Kupp	$6,000	$6,400
Cole Beasley	$5,300	$6,000
T.Y. Hilton	$5,000	$6,200
John Brown	$4,700	$5,700
Gabriel Davis	$4,000	$5,000
Cam Sims	$3,900	$4,900
Zach Pascal	$3,700	$5,300
Josh Reynolds	$3,600	$4,800
Michael Pittman	$3,500	$5,100
Scotty Miller	$3,400	$4,700
Isaiah McKenzie	$3,300	$4,900
Van Jefferson	$3,100	$4,700
David Moore	$3,000	$4,700
Freddie Swain	$3,000	$4,600
Steven Sims	$3,000	$4,600
Tyler Johnson	$3,000	$4,600

Saturday strategy – Stefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin should be your top two WR choices. If possible roster them both. Robert Woods, Antonio Brown, and T.Y. Hilton would be my WR2 pivots. I could see using Cole Beasley or John Brown at WR2 as well (but only if you don’t use Diggs). Choose between Josh Reynolds or Van Jefferson at WR3, or consider one of the Football Team WRs, if you don’t use McLaurin.

Pay to Play:

Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. IND ($7,700 DK, $8,700 FD)
Indy is abysmal against WRs. They are particularly bad against WR1s. Stefon Diggs has become one of the most reliable WRs in football. Take advantage of the most obvious stack on the slate and hook Diggs up with Allen to lock up some money.

Stay Away:

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks vs. LAR ($6,900 DK, $6,800 FD) Tyler Lockett has never had a blowup performance in back-to-back games. I have zero reasons to think it will start here against the elite Rams’ pass defense. I don’t like DK Metcalf shadowed by Jalen Ramsey either, but I have more faith in Metcalf’s natural ability. Better yet just avoid both of them.

Value Play:

Josh Reynolds, Rams @ SEA ($3,600 DK, $4,800 FD)
Even prior to Cooper Kupp’s COVID diagnosis, Josh Reynolds was starting to become more involved in the Rams’ offense. Now he gets to face the worst defense in the league in terms of receptions allowed to WRs and the third-worst in receiving yards allowed to WRs. If Kupp is a no-go this further boosts both Reynolds and Van Jefferson’s chances to have a big game.

 

Tight End

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Logan Thomas	$4,900	$6,400
Rob Gronkowski	$3,900	$6,000
Tyler Higbee	$3,400	$5,400
Dawson Knox	$3,200	$4,900
Gerald Everett	$3,000	$4,600
Jack Doyle	$2,900	$4,500
Trey Burton	$2,800	$4,700
Cameron Brate	$2,800	$4,500
Jacob Hollister	$2,700	$4,700
Mo Alie-Cox	$2,600	$4,300
Will Dissly	$2,600	$4,400
Greg Olsen	$2,500	$4,300
Lee Smith	$2,500	$4,200

Saturday strategy – The decision should likely come down to Logan Thomas or Rob Gronkowski. The only other players I feel safe using are Tyler Higbee or Jack Doyle.

Pay to Play:

Logan Thomas, Football Team vs. TB ($4,900 DK, $6,400 FD)
Since Week 13, Logan Thomas ranks second in TE targets and third in TE receiving yards. Meanwhile, Tampa is allowing an average of 8-52-0.75 to the position over their last four contests.

Stay Away:

Dawson Knox, Bills vs. IND ($3,200 DK, $4,900 FD)
Dawson Knox has the worst matchup of any of the TE1s on the docket. I actually like him in reality, but there is no chance I am actively playing him over Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Higbee, or Jack Doyle.

Value Play:

Jack Doyle, Colts @ BUF ($2,900 DK, $4,500 FD)
Buffalo has allowed eight TE scores, but more importantly, they have given up the second-most receptions and second-most receiving yards to the position. Jack Doyle has been the clear leader in the Indy TE room over the last month, so if you need to shave some money consider him on DK.

 

Sunday-Only Slate:

 

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

There are four very good pass defenses on this slate. Tennessee isn’t one of them. They are just as bad against the run too. Lamar Jackson is better with his legs than his arm, but he is no worse than QB2 on this slate. Ryan Tannehill has lit up bad defenses, but his numbers versus good defenses are pedestrian. This included a 259-2 line earlier this year versus Baltimore.

Baltimore has been using J.K. Dobbins as more of a feature RB recently and against this defense, he should be penciled in as one of your starters. Gus Edwards can be used as a money-saving FLEX option if you don’t use Dobbins. Injuries have played a part, but Mark Ingram is mostly out of the playbook. Over the last 12 weeks, he has 30 touches. Don’t even look his way, unless both Dobbins and Gus are ruled out before Sunday. For Tennessee, the RB position is Derrick Henry. In their earlier meeting, the Titans didn’t hold back on giving Henry carries. In fact, they just kept feeding him (29 total touches) until he had a reasonable stat line. In that game, the rest of the RB room totaled two touches. His price tag is very high, so it will be tough to fit in budget-wise. Still, he has slate-breaking potential anytime he plays. I’m not putting any stock in Jeremy McNichols this week.

With the exception of Marquise Brown, all of the other Ravens’ WRs are TD dependent. Miles Boykin has three TDs over the last five games on exactly five catches (one per game). Dez Bryant has two catches over the last three games and both went for TDs. Devin Duvernay has two catches total over the last five games. None of those three is worth more than a dart throw in Showdown contests. Brown, on the other hand, has six or more targets in all but four games. He has been counted on even more recently as Lamar Jackson has started to get on the same page as him. He has six scores over the last six weeks, so at this price (and against this ghastly defense), it would be stupid to not use him as a WR2/WR3. Tennessee has two reliable WRs in A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. Davis bested Brown in every category in the earlier meeting, but Brown got the sole WR score. Basically, one of the two has blown up each week, but there have only been a couple of weeks all season where they have both put up huge numbers. Brown has 11 scores over the last 13 games, so he is definitely the safer option, but considering the price difference, I tend to favor using Davis here.

The Titans have only allowed two TE scores in the six games since they faced the Ravens. That said, in that game, Mark Andrews went off for 5-96-1. Unfortunately, Andrews has only one TD since that game. Still, he has put up reasonable receptions and yardage numbers. He is far and away the most talented TE on the slate. His DK price is low enough to consider, but I cannot go $7K on FD. Coming into the season, Jonnu Smith was a favorite sleeper among fantasy analysts. He scored in their earlier meeting, but he also had only four catches. In fact, he has only topped four catches one time since Week 5. I feel there are better options in this price range. Neither Anthony Firkser nor Geoff Swaim has done much the last five weeks, so you can fade them.

The Ravens’ defense is elite, but I feel there are better matchups to target. Using the Titans’ defense is financial suicide.

 

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints

Since returning to the starting role, Mitchell Trubisky has three games where he has netted three touchdowns in each. In the other three games, he has a total of just two scores. New Orleans’ pass defense is markedly better than when they started the year, so I’m not overly excited for Trubisky here. Still, Nick Foles netted 272-2 against them earlier this year, and I’d fathom that most fantasy analysts would trust Mitchell more than Nick right now. Drew Brees has three scores in two of the three starts since returning from injury. In the other start, he topped 300 passing yards but he didn’t throw a score. Of course, that was because Alvin Kamara went ham versus the Vikings that week. It is definitely easier to beat the Bears through the air than on the ground, plus Brees may get Michael Thomas back. I would rank him QB3/4 on this slate. Taysom Hill is the wildcard here. His price is cheap enough to use in SF, but you cannot throw away your QB slot on him in single-QB lineups.

David Montgomery has been a beast the second half of the season. Only one player in all of football has more scrimmage yards since Week 12 (that is Derrick Henry). Montgomery is cheaper than Henry this week making him a decent pivot. That said, New Orleans is elite against the run. In their earlier meeting, Montgomery just barely topped 100 total yards. The Saints should get their RB room back this week after missing all of them last week. Alvin Kamara may be the biggest risk to return, and against a tough run defense, his play isn’t elite. He had a ton of targets and receptions in their earlier meeting, but that was without Michael Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders. If I was gonna choose a high-priced guy this week, I prefer Henry. Latavius Murray is officially off the COVID list, so he will get the biggest boost if Kamara misses another game or is limited. Plus, he has standalone value even if Kamara plays. At his reduced price, I love him as a FLEX play. Ty Montgomery should move back to WR this week, but if Kamara cannot go he might be a sneaky Showdown play.

Allen Robinson is a very good WR but he will face a tough assignment going up against Marshon Lattimore. He scored in the earlier contest, but his price is too high considering the player pool. Darnell Mooney scored in the earlier game and had a huge performance last week, but he is dealing with an ankle injury and may not play. If he cannot go, both Anthony Miller and Javon Wims enter the WR3 conversation. I wouldn’t recommend either of them though if Mooney plays. If Darnell is healthy enough to go, he makes a real serious consideration for WR3 as well. Cordarelle Patterson is a threat to score any time he touches the ball. Unfortunately, he is not on the field much if David Montgomery is healthy. I’ll pass on him here. Michael Thomas is always an elite play when he is on the field. He hasn’t been there a lot this year, but when he has, he has fared well. In a blase field of WRs, you can consider him as a WR1 pivot. If Thomas plays he will steal targets from Jared Cook and Kamara, not Emmanuel Sanders. Sanders makes a safe WR2 play whether Thomas suits up or not. Marquez Callaway can be considered as a WR3 if Thomas is a no-go. I’m not going any deeper though.

It seems as if when I play Cole Kmet, Jimmy Graham scores – and vice/versa. This weird convergence has cost me a couple of thousand dollars this last month. My money is on Graham this week in the revenge game, so everyone else should load Kmet into your lineup. Jared Cook has a great matchup and a more reasonable FD price than Mark Andrews. I’m just concerned that if Thomas returns, Cook fades into oblivion again. Adam Trautman will be very good…next year.

Chicago’s defense is a sneaky play here in that I feel they will be under-owned. Meanwhile, New Orleans will likely be the most popular play. I don’t like that price on a slate with lots of solid defenses to choose from.

 

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Baker Mayfield in his first post-season start at Pittsburgh isn’t an optimal play. He gets the benefit of no Joe Haden, but he did nothing last week versus Pittsburgh and even less in their prior meeting. In fact, Baker has never topped 200 passing yards or 2 passing TDs against Pittsburgh. Mason Rudolph looked like a stud against Cleveland last week. I expect Ben Roethlisberger to go bonkers here. Ben didn’t have to do much in their earlier contest as Pittsburgh ran wild on Cleveland. Since then, the Browns have evolved into a team that is considerably better against the run than the pass. I actually feel with the week off, Big Ben may finish as QB1 on this slate. At worst he will end up as Qb3.

Pittsburgh hasn’t been good against the run for nearly two months now. Meanwhile, Nick Chubb has scored eight times in the last eight games. Much like David Montgomery, the price for Chubb makes him slightly more appealing than Kamara or Henry. Also, much like Latavius Murray, Kareem Hunt is a near-perfect FLEX play. James Conner hasn’t topped 100 yards rushing since his Week 6 contest against the Browns. Part of this is due to injury, and a part is due to COVID, unfortunately, most of it is due to Pittsburgh thoroughly abandoning the run. Cleveland is good against the run, so this is a hard pass for me, as is Benny Snell.

Jarvis Landry has been a jack of all trades recently. He can run a TD in. He can catch a bunch of passes and reel in a TD reception. He even has been known to throw the occasional TD pass. The matchup isn’t perfect (even without Haden), but his volume always puts him in play at WR2. Rashard Higgins has been a solid producer since Odell Beckham’s injury. His price is also really appealing. I like him as a pivot at WR2/3. Donovan Peoples-Jones is nearly site minimum, but his usage is middling and I don’t think that Mayfield will produce enough passing offense to make him relevant this week. Plus, he is battling a concussion and might not even play. Even if Jones doesn’t play, I’m not digging deeper here. I love Pittsburgh’s receiver corps this week. The only hard part will be deciding which one to use. Based on price and recent usage, I am leaning Diontae Johnson or JuJu Smith-Schuster. That said, I wouldn’t blame anyone using Chase Claypool here or even James Washington. JuJu and Diontae are both in the WR1 range and Claypool is a WR2 possibility. Washington is more of a punt-WR3. It can be noted that Claypool has scored in both games versus Cleveland this year.

Austin Hooper has three TDs in his last five games. This includes a score versus Pittsburgh last week. He is a great option at TE on both sites if you don’t pay up for Andrews. I don’t like David Njoku because he isn’t used enough. I’d have more interest in Harrison Bryant but he may miss the game due to COVID. If Eric Ebron returns from the COVID list to play this week I love him on DK at his price. Vance McDonald was serviceable in his stead last weekend, but he doesn’t have the upside of Ebron.

The Browns’ defense isn’t the worst option, especially if Big Ben is rusty or still dinged up. I am buying Ben for a big game though, so I hope that the Browns’ defense ends up being a bust. Pittsburgh’s defense is my favorite play of the week (even though they are a little pricier). Baker will get a hard playoff introduction, especially with the team’s coaches dealing with COVID.

 

Here are my Sunday-only Slate recommended lineups.

At DK: $6.1K for Ben Roethlisberger, $15.8K for Derrick Henry and J.K. Dobbins, $5.5K for JuJu Smith-Schuster, $5K for Emmanuel Sanders, $3.9K for Darnell Mooney (if he plays – otherwise Anthony Miller), $3.7K for Eric Ebron, $6.9K for David Montgomery at FLEX, and $2.8K for the Bears’ defense.

At FD: $7.5K for Big Ben, $17K for Henry and Dobbins, $6.5K for JuJu, $6.3K for Marquise Brown, $5.4K or less for Mooney or Miller, $5.1K for Jimmy Graham. $8.4K for Montgomery at FLEX, and $3.7K for the Bears’ defense.

At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Lamar Jackson, Big Ben at SF, Henry, and Dobbins at RB, Montgomery at FLEX, JuJu, Brown, and Mooney/Miller at WR, and Graham at TE.

 

Quarterback

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Lamar Jackson	$7,800	$9,300
Ryan Tannehill	$6,600	$8,200
Ben Roethlisberger	$6,100	$7,500
Drew Brees	$5,700	$7,800
Baker Mayfield	$5,400	$6,700
Mitchell Trubisky	$5,300	$6,900
Taysom Hill	$5,000	$5,500

Sunday strategy – Lamar Jackson and Ben Roethlisberger are my top two choices on Sunday. Plus, I’m concerned about low points in the Chicago vs. New Orleans game. You can consider Taysom Hill in SF contests but not in regular 1-QB contests.

Pay to Play:

Lamar Jackson, Ravens @ TEN ($7,800 DK, $9,300 FD)
Tennessee has allowed the fourth-most passing yards and the second-most passing TDs. Now, Lamar Jackson is never going to be confused for an elite passer, but against this defense, he should throw for 275-2. Then the 75-100 rushing yards and any rushing scores are gravy.

Stay Away:

Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. BAL ($6,600 DK, $8,200 FD) Ryan Tannehill has fared well versus bad pass defenses but he has been mediocre against quality defenses. Baltimore definitely qualifies as quality. In their earlier meeting, Tannehill finished with 259-2. That’s decent but not $8.2K worth.

Value Play:

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers vs. CLE ($6,100 DK, $7,500 FD) The FD price hardly qualifies as a value but his DK price is right in that range. Plus, it doesn’t matter what his FD price is if he is going to achieve 3X. Cleveland has the second-worst passing defense on this slate. They even allowed Ben Roethlisberger’s backup Mason Rudolph to look legit last week. Unless the weather becomes an issue, I have Ben at 325-3.

 

Running Back

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Derrick Henry	$9,200	$10,200
Alvin Kamara	$8,500	$9,000
David Montgomery	$6,900	$8,400
Nick Chubb	$6,700	$7,700
J.K. Dobbins	$6,600	$6,800
James Conner	$5,000	$6,200
Kareem Hunt	$4,800	$5,900
Latavius Murray	$4,500	$5,400
Gus Edwards	$4,400	$5,700
Benny Snell	$4,200	$5,000
Ty Montgomery	$4,100	$4,900
Jeremy McNichols	$4,000	$4,600
Mark Ingram	$4,000	$5,100

Sunday strategy I don’t blame you for playing Derick Henry. Even in a subpar matchup, he will likely post 125-1. Still, that price is so high. David Montgomery and Nick Chubb also have just ‘aight matchups, but their salaries are considerably better. Then we have J.K. Dobbins, who is the best value on the slate even though he is among the higher-priced guys. You are going to use two of that foursome in some combo. If you take your FLEX from this position consider Kareem Hunt or Latavius Murray.

Pay to Play:

Derrick Henry, Titans vs. BAL ($9,200 DK, $10,200 FD)
The price is higher than I would like for Derrick Henry. Baltimore has an elite run defense, but they can be beaten by repetition. That is what Derrick Henry did to them last time. He got so many carries that volume alone carried him to 2X value. Expect a repeat here with 125-1. If you are going to pay up know that this is what you are probably going to get. Then you can be pleasantly surprised if he rips off a second long score. In reality, I personally prefer to pay up for David Montgomery or Nick Chubb, cause they are both cheaper. Still, their final numbers won’t be decidedly higher than Henry’s.

Stay Away:

Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. CHI ($8,500 DK, $9,000 FD)
Alvin Kamara missed last week due to COVID. His best hope is that he clears COVID protocol on Sunday prior to the game. That means that he will have gotten zero contact work in at least two weeks. He even has to practice this week virtually. There is also the chance that he doesn’t clear on Sunday. If that happens, Latavius Murray becomes an easy-peasy FLEX play. In their earlier meeting, Kamara saved a mediocre rushing line with an absurd amount of targets because both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders were out. Both will likely suit up this week. Combine that with the regular workload share with Murray and the goal line vultures from Taysom Hill, then throw in this ridiculously high-salary and no practice. There is no chance that Kamara returns a sizeable value.

Value Play:

J.K. Dobbins, Ravens @ TEN ($6,600 DK, $6,800 FD)
Tennessee is bad against the run, bad against the pass, bad against everything. J.K. Dobbins’ price tag doesn’t read like your typical value play, but he has the greatest legitimate opportunity to return 3X+ without any outside considerations. He needs to be at one of your RB slots on both the Sunday slate and the Full slate.

 

Wide Receiver

	DraftKings	FanDuel
A.J. Brown	$7,000	$8,400
Allen Robinson	$6,500	$7,200
Michael Thomas	$6,300	$6,800
Diontae Johnson	$6,200	$7,000
Jarvis Landry	$5,800	$6,600
JuJu Smith-Schuster	$5,500	$6,500
Marquise Brown	$5,400	$6,300
Chase Claypool	$5,200	$6,100
Emmanuel Sanders	$5,000	$6,200
Corey Davis	$4,800	$6,400
Rashard Higgins	$4,100	$5,500
Darnell Mooney	$3,900	$5,400
Willie Snead	$3,500	$5,000
Miles Boykin	$3,400	$5,000
Anthony Miller	$3,300	$4,700
Donovan Peoples-Jones	$3,200	$4,800
Marquez Callaway	$3,100	$4,900
Cameron Batson	$3,000	$4,500
Cordarelle Patterson	$3,000	$4,900
Devin Duvernay	$3,000	$4,700
Dez Bryant	$3,000	$4,900
James Washington	$3,000	$5,100
Javon Wims	$3,000	$4,500
Kalif Raymond	$3,000	$4,500

Sunday strategy – This is not a great slate for WRs. Choose one of the Steelers (I recommend JuJu Smith-Schuster and pair him with two of Marquise Brown, Jarvis Landy, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Corey Davis, Anthony Miller, or Darnell Mooney.

Pay to Play:

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers vs. CLE ($5,500 DK, $6,500 FD)
Obviously, it is hard to determine which Steelers’ WR(s) will go off each week. Fortunately, both Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster have been getting it done over the second half of the season. JuJu is a few bucks cheaper so, he is my choice between the two, but both are great pay-up options this week.

Stay Away:

A.J. Brown, Titans vs. BAL ($7,000 DK, $8,400 FD) A.J. Brown’s salary outweighs his potential return this week. On a slate with several decent WR plays but no true studs, it doesn’t make sense to pay up for Brown against the Ravens’ defense. His ceiling just isn’t that much higher than any of the second-tier guys, despite his price being considerably higher especially on FD. Brown will probably score a TD here. He has been on a scoring heater all year, but I just don’t see the volume or yardage numbers being there this week.

Value Play:

Darnell Mooney, Bears @ NOS ($3,900 DK, $5,400 FD) or Anthony Miller, Bears @ NOS ($3,300 DK, $4,700 FD) One of these two will benefit from Marshon Lattimore shadowing Allen Robinson. Anthony Miller looked great down the stretch last year and Darnell Mooney has looked great down the stretch this year. Mooney sustained an ankle injury late last week. If he is good to go, he is the play. If he is questionable up until the game time, then Miller is the play. Both are cheap enough to produce 3X value, but Mooney is the preferred option.

 

Tight End

	DraftKings	FanDuel
Mark Andrews	$5,200	$7,000
Jared Cook	$4,600	$5,900
Austin Hooper	$3,900	$5,400
Eric Ebron	$3,700	$5,500
Jimmy Graham	$3,300	$5,100
Jonnu Smith	$3,200	$5,200
Cole Kmet	$3,000	$5,300
Vance McDonald	$2,900	$4,500
David Njoku	$2,800	$4,600
Anthony Firkser	$2,700	$4,400
Harrison Bryant	$2,600	$4,700
Adam Trautman	$2,500	$4,300
Geoff Swaim	$2,500	$4,200

Sunday strategy – Mark Andrews and Austin Hooper are the best plays on the slate. Jared Cook is a reasonable pivot based on the matchup, but he may lose targets to a returning Michael Thomas. Eric Ebron also has a decent matchup but he is questionable. Jimmy Graham gets the revenge game narrative, but he has to share looks with Cole Kmet. If Ebron is out you can use Vance McDonald as a punt play.

Pay to Play:

Mark Andrews, Ravens @ TEN ($5,200 DK, $7,000 FD) Tennessee has been decent against TEs, but Mark Andrews actually posted a very good line against them back in Week 11. Andrews is clearly the safest play at the position this week, but his FD price is a little higher than I would like.

Stay Away:

Jared Cook, Saints vs. CHI ($4,600 DK, $5,900 FD)
This is actually a good matchup for Jared Cook. He just falls into the category of the most expensive player on the list with a reason for concern. The concern being the return of Michael Thomas. In the six games mid-season when Michael Thomas previously returned from his injury, Cook had a total of only NINE catches.

Value Play:

Jimmy Graham, Bears @ NO ($3,300 DK, $5,100 FD)
It is a revenge game for Jimmy Graham against a NO defense that has been among the leagues’ worst at allowing TE scores. Of course, Graham will probably split touches with Cole Kmet, so don’t expect a huge statistical line. That said, you know that Chicago will do everything in their power to get Graham a score here.