The Pittsburgh Pirates (0-2) visit the St. Louis Cardinals (2-0) Sunday at Busch Stadium for a 2:15 p.m. ET first pitch. We analyze the Pirates-Cardinals MLB betting odds and lines, with betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Pirates at Cardinals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP Dakota Hudson
Keller in 2019: 1-5, 7.13 ERA in 11 starts as a rookie.
- Career vs. Cardinals: Never faced St. Louis before.
- 5 road starts in 2019: 1-3, 11.14 ERA (26 ER, 21 IP).
Hudson in 2019: 16-7, 3.35 ERA in 33 games, including one start.
- 2019 vs. Pirates: 1-0, 4.24 ERA (8 ER, 17 IP) in four games (three starts).
- Career vs. Pirates: 2-0, 3.38 ERA (8 ER in 21 1/3 IP) in seven total appearances (three starts).
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Pirates at Cardinals: Key injuries
(List of injuries around the league)
Pirates
- SP Chris Archer (shoulder) out
- OF Gregory Polanco (COVID-19) doubtful
Cardinals
- RP Giovanny Gallegos (travel restrictions) doubtful
- RP Jordan Hicks (elbow) out
Pirates at Cardinals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:40 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Pirates 8, Cardinals 5
Moneyline (ML)
The PIRATES at +140 to pull off an upset is just a terrible price. Mathematically it says that team wins 41% of the time, however, the Cardinals beat Pittsburgh in 14 of 19 meetings in 2019, and have won the first two games this season.
So, the only gaming logic I can muster up to bet the Pirates here is that they are so poorly priced BetMGM is trying to get us to take the Cardinals. You know bookmakers are always trying to sucker us.
And you know what? I am betting on this logic. We got first win of the season motivation, plus four of the five Pirates wins over the Cardinals last season being in St. Louis, on our side.
Here’s the thing though, because of writing deadlines I am giving this pick out now. But the Pirates (+140) will get juicier so maybe wait closer to first pitch before wagering. BET PIRATES (+140).
New to sports betting? A $100 bet on the Pirates (+140) earns a $140 profit if they upset the Cardinals.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Since we are taking the Pirates (+1.5, -154) on the upset because of bizarro pricing, we are PASSING on the run line. Let me explain. This could go bad because Pittsburgh is bad — the Pirates had the fifth-worst run line record in the MLB last season (75-87). Plus, they gave up the third-most runs.
It’s outrageous to pay -154 for a measly +1.5 runs against a Cardinals team projected to have six more wins this season than the Pirates. St. Louis also beat Pittsburgh by two-plus runs nine times in 2019. AVOID THE RUN LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
Oh, we LOVE the OVER 9 (-110). Pittsburgh played the most Overs in MLB last year (93-63-6 O/U) and had the fourth-highest percentage of Overs in division games and road games.
The Cardinals starter — Hudson — is talented but hasn’t exactly dominated Pittsburgh in his limited action against them. The Pirates’ current lineup slashed .298 BA/.364 OBP/.404 slugging percentage in 47 at-bats against Hudson, according to DailyBaseballData.com. There weren’t a lot of runs put up, but maybe they’re due?
Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com.
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