The Detroit Tigers (40-50) and Minnesota Twins (38-50) finish a four-game series Sunday with a 2:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Target Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Wily Peralta is the projected starting pitcher for the Tigers. He is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 21 IP over four starts and one relief outing.
Peralta is coming off 7 scoreless frames against the Texas Rangers Monday. For the season, he has yielded 5 ER through 21 IP and all 5 runs came in one game against the Los Angeles Angels.
RHP Jose Berrios is the projected starting pitcher for the Twins. He is 7-3 with a 3.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 through 101 2/3 IP across 17 starts.
Berrios is coming off 7 innings of 1-run ball against the Chicago White Sox Tuesday. He has logged a 2.96 ERA over his last four starts.
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Tigers at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Tigers +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Twins -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Tigers +1.5 (-110) | Twins -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Twins 6, Tigers 4
Money line (ML)
Minnesota is up 3-0 in this series and has taken six of eight meetings from Detroit this season.
The Tigers are just 7-22 in their last 29 games at Target Field. The Detroit offense is likely overvalued after notching a .763 OPS over the two weeks leading up to this series, which was inflated by a .338 batting average on balls in play.
Both starters have been helped along by generous BABIPs, Peralta with the small sample of starts more so. The 32-year-old right-hander has benefited from a .183 BABIP and an 80.2% left-on-base figure.
PASS. The Twins are getting pick ’em odds on the run line. We’ll find more leverage there.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Saturday was a bullpen day for the Tigers. The Minnesota relief corps is in much better shape for Sunday, especially at the back end.
Each of the Twins’ last 6 wins was by a multi-run margin. Look for that trend to continue Sunday.
BACK MINNESOTA -1.5 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 9 (-105) gets a small lean, with pitcher fade analysis winning out over a weather report that figures to hinder offense (low humidity, wind in).
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