Lions vs. Vikings: Week 5 odds and best bets

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings: Week 5 odds and best bets for the NFC North matchup

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The Detroit Lions are decided underdogs heading into the team’s trip to Minnesota to face the Vikings in Week 5. Detroit is getting more than a touchdown in the latest odds for the coming NFL weekend.

Here’s how the odds stack up at Tipico Sportsbook as of 6:00 a.m. on Thursday, October 7th:

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. ET

  • Money line: Lions +265 (bet $100 to win $265) | Vikings -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Lions +7.5 (-115) | Vikings -7.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Both the Lions and Vikings are 2-2 against the spread through the first four weeks of the 2021 season. The Vikings have won the last seven meetings in the series straight-up, and the Lions have covered the spread just once in those seven meetings.

Given the rather dire injury situation for the winless Lions, the best bet here is to take the Vikings and give the -7.5 points.

Cory Undlin: ‘it’s just poor, poor coaching’ for Lions to have 10 defenders on the field

The rookie DC took the blame for only having 10 defenders on the field 3 times in 2 games

Give credit to Lions defensive coordinator Cory Undlin for saying what everyone is thinking.

The Lions coaching is making way too many preventable mistakes. None is more glaring than only having 10 defensive players on the field for three different plays in the last two games, both losses. That includes a long TD run by Vikings RB Dalvin Cook.

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Undlin shouldered the blame in his press conference with reporters on Tuesday.

“It’s embarrassing, is what it is. I would say this: It’s just poor, poor coaching is what it is,” Undlin said.

Undlin then proceeded to give a rather lengthy explanation of the communication breakdown and confusion that has caused the problem. He absolved safety Duron Harmon of blame while acknowledging that he respected Harmon for trying to take responsibility.

The gruff-voiced Undlin once again pointed the finger at himself,

“…the remedy is not to let it happen again. I know I said that last week. I failed you guys at that. I failed the players at that.  But ultimately, it comes back to me.”

It’s a particularly sensitive flashpoint for the Lions. Former head coach Jim Caldwell was vehemently criticized for failing to field an 11-man defense late in his tenure, and the defensive-minded coaching staff led by Matt Patricia was entrusted to do better. It has not happened.

 


 

Instant analysis of the Lions lopsided loss to the Vikings

Patricia is 0-5 against the Vikings and all losses have been in double-digits

The Detroit Lions seized control of last place in the NFC North with a poorly coached, poorly executed game plan in a 34-20 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The loss drops the Lions to 3-5, the same as the Vikings, but Minnesota owns the tie-breaker.

They also own the Lions. This was Detroit’s ninth straight loss within the NFC North. Matt Patricia has never beaten the Vikings. Heck, he’s never come within 10 points of the Vikings in any of their five meetings.

This one wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. Chase Daniel, in for Matthew Stafford after the starting QB left for a concussion check, threw a garbage-time TD to T.J. Hockenson to close the gap.

Outside of two blocked punts, great kick coverage, a great veteran TD connection from Stafford to Marvin Jones and one perfectly timed blitz from Desmond Trufant that sacked Kirk Cousins, this game was a complete and abject failure by the Lions.

Stafford was solid early but fell apart with two terrible interceptions. D’Andre Swift had another critical drop in the passing game. The offensive line was mauled by a Vikings front that has struggled all year. And the offense was the better side of the ball for Detroit.

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The same very basic play concepts continue to completely flummox the Lions defense every single week. It’s getting worse, not better. Dalvin Cook posted 206 yards on the ground by making simplistic cuts and running away from the perennially step-late linebackers and safeties. Backup Alexander Mattison hit 69 yards on 12 carries and made it look very easy.

Then again, it’s easy to run when the defense only has 10 defenders on the field. Again…

Just for good measure, fading kicker Matt Prater missed his sixth field goal attempt on the season. Add placekicker to the list of problem spots in Detroit.

The Vikings played well, and they deserve credit. The Lions tried doing the exact same things that have led to a 12-26-1 record under Patricia over the last two-plus seasons. At some point, either Patricia will realize that staying the course on his obviously flawed strategies isn’t working or the Lions ownership will pull the plug.

Based on what we’ve seen from Patricia, particularly when he keeps losing in the same ways over and over again, it’s hard to expect the former. It’s time to expect the latter.

Matt Patricia and the Lions continue to repeat baffling, terrible mistakes

The losses keep mounting but nothing changes for the better from the coaching staff

Down 13-0 early in the second quarter, the Lions had the ball at the Vikings 1-yard line courtesy of Matthew Stafford and D’Andre Swift, mostly. Needing a touchdown to get a handle on the game and give the team some life after being out-classed in the first quarter, Darrell Bevell — naturally —took Swift off the field and brought on the biggest tell in the league: Adrian Peterson.

The stretch run call to Peterson, followed by the decision to kick a field goal is a fireable offense, not even taking into account this coaching staff’s other obvious flaws. For one, Peterson has been declining rapidly as the season has worn on.

 

Week 8 brought about an even worse YPC at 1.4. One. Point. Four. When Peterson is in the game, he likely is getting a handoff. When Peterson gets a handoff, he’s getting fewer and fewer yards every passing week.

So on 3rd-and-1 from the 1-yard line, Bevell decides to dial up a stretch run with Peterson. It fails, as expected. When all 11 players on defense know that an aging Adrian Peterson is getting the handoff, your best hope is a net-zero on the play. They lost four. Stafford had hit his last seven passes to that point, and the Vikings injury-depleted secondary is young and prone to mistakes. It is astounding that that play call even crossed an experienced coach’s mind at that point in time.

The decision to kick a field goal after that failed third down might have even been worse. The Vikings had just torched the Lions defense the previous two drives. They hadn’t even faced a third down yet. And Patricia decides that a field goal attempt, with a kicker who’s been struggling all season and had just missed a 46 yard try earlier, is the way to get back in the game.

At the time of writing, the Lions trail 20-10 and the Vikings had just punted for the second time of the game. And if they make a comeback and somehow force a few more stops to win, my opinion on this will not change one single iota. Patricia coaches scared, but he also coaches like his defense will make a stop, which they have continuously proven incapable. The mix of those two styles, combined with his and Bevell’s inability to make any sort of changes when something is not working, completely neuter this talented offense.

In the first two drives of the game, there were three plays in two drives where Bevell called a screen to the following: 35-year-old Danny Amendola and 35-year-old Adrian Peterson. Who would possibly say “no” to having Marvin Hall or D’Andre Swift in those situations? Why does this coaching staff only cater to the needs of the elderly statesmen? Let Amendola work inside where he’s made his living. Feed the ball to talented, young, quick playmakers. Attack weaknesses. Let Stafford sling.

Ultimately, had this coaching staff made those third and fourth down calls early in the season, it would be easier to forgive. But we’ve seen what Patricia does in these situations for nearly three years now. He’s not changing. The Lions need to make the change themselves.

Matthew Stafford clears final COVID-19 test, will play vs. Vikings

Stafford passed his final required COVID-19 test on Sunday morning

Lions fans are waking up to great news on Sunday morning. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Detroit starting QB Matthew Stafford cleared his final COVID-19 test required to get back into the lineup.

Stafford will start against the Minnesota Vikings in Sunday’s NFC North matchup, barring any unforeseen last-second complications. The Lions activated Stafford from the reserve/COVID-19 list on Saturday, but his availability for the Vikings game was dependent upon No. 9 passing one more test.

Stafford never tested positive, but he was exposed in a high-risk situation on Monday. NFL protocols required Stafford to self-isolate and pass five days of testing before being allowed back with his teammates.

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Matthew Stafford and the Lions QB options for the Week 9 game vs. Vikings

Stafford could still play but there are other options too

We still don’t know who will be under center for the Detroit Lions when the team takes the field in Week 9 in Minnesota in a key NFC North game against the Vikings. Matthew Stafford’s appearance on the Lions’ reserve/COVID-19 list complicates the entire scenario.

There is a way for Stafford to still be able to play. All indications are Stafford himself did not test positive, including an Instagram story post from Kelly Stafford. He was instead in close contact with someone who did test positive.

That contact happened on Monday. NFL protocols require five days of negative tests to clear the reserve/COVID-19 list. Stafford can hit that mark if he tests negative every day, starting with Wednesday’s test. If he has passed all tests up to Sunday, Stafford will fly on a private jet to Minnesota and get his final test there.

Stafford cannot practice with the team or sit in on meetings other than via teleconferencing while he’s on the reserve list.

If Stafford cannot get clearance to play, Chase Daniel will get the starting nod. Daniel has yet to play for the Lions after signing as a free agent this offseason. The former Bears backup has started five games in his 11-year career, including a win over the Lions in 2018 with Chicago. He led the Bears to a 16-6 victory over the Vikings in Week 4 last season after starter Mitchell Trubisky left during the opening drive after fumbling.

David Blough is the only other QB on the Lions roster. He started the final five games last season after both Stafford and Jeff Driskel were injured and placed on I.R. The Lions lost all five games Blough started.

Stylistically, Blough is more capable of running the Darrell Bevell offense that Stafford executes. He has a stronger arm and has proven more willing to try to fit the ball into tight windows. Daniel is more of a rhythm-based, cautious passer who often slides around to get better throwing angles.

Whoever is under center will not have top WR Kenny Golladay to target. Golladay is out with a hip injury.

 


 

2019 Lions rewatch project: Week 14 notebook from Minnesota

One of the weakest efforts by a Lions team in the post-Millen era

After a bit of extended rest following the Thanksgiving loss to the Chicago Bears, the Lions packed up their game and headed out west to Minnesota. The 3-8-1 Lions limp into the beautiful new home of the Vikings in a rematch of Detroit’s most lopsided loss of the season.

The 8-4 Vikings enter the game coming off a tough loss to Seattle. They’re chasing the 9-3 Packers in the NFC North while also trying to stay above the 7-5 Rams in the race for the final NFC Wild Card spot. Detroit was officially eliminated in Week 13.

Pregame notes

The Lions still have Matthew Stafford on the active roster but placed Jeff Driskel on IR. He’s replaced as David Blough’s backup by Kelly Sloter. CB/RS Jamal Agnew and DE Da’Shawn Hand are the only regulars who are inactive, though CB Rashaan Melvin is sitting out despite being active.

Minnesota is still without WR Adam Thielen, who injured himself catching a TD in the Week 7 matchup in Detroit.

Walt Anderson is the referee for the indoor game. The Lions are clad in their road white jerseys with blue pants, while the Vikings are in the purple tops and white pants.

Because this game was (spoiler alert!) never really competitive, I’m cutting back more on the play-to-play analysis and offering a more general vibe of who is playing well and what is/not working for Detroit.

First quarter

David Blough’s first two passes are batted down at the line of scrimmage. He’s sacked quickly on 3rd-and-10 when Jesse James flat-out fails in trying to block Danielle Hunter. Sam Martin’s booming punt is poorly covered, allowing a 17-yard return by Mike Hughes as both Tavon Wilson and Steve Longa got caught out of their lanes. The “uh-oh” feeling is already creeping up.

At least the Lions defense comes out sharp. Christian Jones nicely blows up a screen pass. A’Shawn Robinson smothers a stretch run where Jarrad Davis nicely sealed off the cutback lane. Darius Slay breaks up the final pass, a back-foot heave by Kirk Cousins who was under heavy pressure from a sweet A-gap blitz by Davis.

We see a bit of creativity on 2nd-and-10 during this drive. The Lions have all three DTs in the game–Damon Harrison, A’Shawn Robinson, John Atkins–all aligned right of the center and inside the tackle box. Devon Kennard is the lone EDGE on the left. Cousins simply rolls gently to his left and easily completes a short pass to TE Kyle Rudolph.

Another poor 3-and-out from the Lions offense. James again loses badly on a block, Blough misfires behind Marvin Jones.

The next Vikings drive is aided by Lions penalties. Slay gets flagged for holding (valid call) and later Tavai gets called for lowering the head to initiate contact as he ran into a scrum late. It’s a letter-of-the-law penalty and it sets up the Vikings TD.

The touchdown is a pass from Cousins to Bisi Johnson, who beat Amani Oruwariye in man coverage on a crosser in the back of the end zone. It’s not a great throw and the rookie CB gets a contest on it but Johnson hangs on and scores. Cousins had enough time to order a tea set in the pocket. The conversion makes it 7-0 Vikings.

The Lions finally get a first down on offense! A nice catch by Marvin Jones on a contested throw gains 18. Minnesota follows that up with a penalty to keep the chains moving but the Lions cannot capitalize. Receivers are not open and Blough has no time to throw, and it’s that way every snap.

Second quarter

I will not question effort, but I’ll just say this: the Vikings offensive line is not nearly as dominant as what the Lions defensive line is making them out to be. Watching Harrison, Mike Daniels and Robinson get pushed around and staying blocked in the run game is very frustrating. It’s especially notable on the first Vikings drive of the second quarter.

Robinson does make a nice TFL but it’s almost entirely RB Dalvin Cook’s own fault for ignoring the hole and bouncing the cut directly into big No. 91, with Wilson there to finish him. A similar thing happens on his next run; Cook tries to cut back inside and that gives a lining Harrison enough time to catch up and drop him at the line. If Cook keeps his line outside and follows his blocking he’s got a first down. That is where this game is at already–the only real Lions positives are when Vikings players screw up.

Scarbrough continues to be a bright spot. He gets nine yards on three carries on the Lions’ next 3-and-out. While that doesn’t seem successful, he’s maximizing yards. Isaac Nauta is in at fullback and on second down he throws a very nice cut block. The 3rd-and-1 is an uncreative nightmare. With 10 (10!) Vikings in the box and the Lions in a 3TE set, Scarbrough plows headlong into a scrum of bodies. Ragnow and Decker get push but the other OL-men are knocked backward. Easy stop on a bad offensive call.

Spotlight play on Jahlani Tavai: 2nd-and-8, 8:19 on the clock. Tavai is lined up as a JACK over left tackle but feigns (poorly I might add) a rush. He drops 3-4 yards deep and his assignment on the play is the RB Mattison, who holds in initially as a potential pass blocker and then released when Tavai doesn’t rush. Tavai is on top of it, flows well as Mattison starts to circle out to the left. But the rookie LB can’t take his eye off Cousins, who would have a wide open lane to run through between C and LG as the DL has been pushed aside. Tavai takes a full step inside to quell that notion, but it gives Mattison enough room to get free for the outlet pass. A diving Tavai cannot reach him to make the tackle, and Mattison rumbles for a first down, leaping over a terrible Wilson tackle attempt in the process. To make matters worse, Robinson gets injured while showing great hustle to chase the play down.

Cousins was never going to run. He wasn’t even thinking about it. When Tavai hedged inside, Cousins was looking for his TE down the middle (good bracket coverage by Jones and Will Harris here). If Tavai just stays on task with Mattison, this play almost certainly goes nowhere. Based on Cousins’ inside throw, Tavai might have even had a shot at an INT. Alas, none of that happened.

A nice red zone stand, aided by a Vikings penalty, keeps the damage to a field goal and it’s 10-0.

Detroit’s next drive is Minnesota’s chance to prove they can screw things up. Three separate defensive penalties, a great contested catch by Kenny Golladay and two nice Scarbrough runs behind Ragnow and Glasgow set the Lions up nicely in the red zone.

That’s where Blough shows his inexperience. On 3rd-and-2 from the MIN 15, Blough looks around from the shotgun. And looks. And looks. Nobody is even close to being open. After 4.4 seconds (I timed it twice) he gets sacked back at the 27. He has to throw the ball away. The lost yards prove critical when Prater slices the kick wide right. It would have been good from 33 yards but wasn’t at 45.

The Vikings pounce. Cousins finds Stefon Diggs deep against Slay. It’s been a pretty even battle on the day between these two but Diggs wins this one. It appears Slay played inside technique instead of outside, which nullified Harris’ over-the-top coverage help. The outside shoulder throw is where Slay should have been based on the help.

The 44-yard gain sets up a too-easy Cook TD off right tackle and it’s 17-0 hitting the half.

Third quarter

Both teams come out in the second half with the energy of a game that is already decided. The Vikings harmlessly and unaggressively run 3-and-out, and the Lions follow suit with a Jones drop on a low throw on third down. Then another 3-and-out for both teams, the Lions losing a conversion due to a (legit) Golladay illegal block penalty. The gnawing feeling that I should be doing something more constructive than watching these two teams go through the motions creeps in heavily.

We get some real action with a Blough interception. The rookie QB rolls to his left despite being under no real pressure and throws an off-balance wobbler over Golladay’s head. Easy pickings for Harrison Smith, who somehow injured CB Xavier Rhodes with a ninja kick while making the catch.

The Lions A-gap run defense continues to be a problem. The RB is getting to the second level too cleanly. Walker and Wilson are making first contact well past the line of scrimmage. The defense eventually holds when Harrison blows up a draw, forcing a 50-yard FG attempt. It’s good and it’s 20-0 at the end of the third, technically on the first play of the fourth quarter. This was Tavai’s best drive in weeks, including a devastating TFL where he perfectly shot the gap at the snap.

Fourth quarter

Blough and the Lions continue to try the quick-hit pass plays. He’s very accurate with his feet set on the short throws to the outside. THe drive stalls when Everson Griffen screams around Decker from a Wide-9 stance and sacks Blough untouched. Tyrell Crosby, in at right tackle, also got beaten badly on the play. After the play Decker and Ragnow discuss the protection like there was a miscommunication. At least Sam Martin’s punt is fantastic and pins the Vikings at their own 5.

Will Harris has generally had a strong game to this point, but he’s on the wrong end of the highlight reel on the ensuing drive. In Cover-3 zone, Harris closes too late on Laquon Treadwell, who makes the catch. Harris’ tackle attempt winds up with him being thrown to the ground after clinging to the big WR for 3-4 yards. Slay was within reach to help but just watched it happen.

Trey Flowers bags the Lions’ first sack by bulling right through ex-Lion Riley Reiff, now the Vikings’ LT. Really nice tight press coverage by Oruwariye forced Cousins to eat the sack instead of trying a throw.

It’s now the peak of garbage time and the Vikings defensive effort reflects that. With about five minutes to go, it’s clear the Lions want to avoid being shutout more than the Vikings care about shutting them out. Blough to Amendola on 1-2 read throws continues to move the chains. Decker and Joe Dahl at LT/LG make a couple of nice switch adjustments on rushes.

The Lions find the end zone when Blough zips a pass to a well-covered Golladay in the back of the end zone. CB Trae Waynes stumbled (Golladay got away with some pushing here) and it allowed Golladay to reach around him and catch it. Prater banks the extra point in off the left upright and it’s 20-7.

The onside kick–a good try by Prater–fails. So does the Vikings offense, inexplicably going for it on 4th-and-2 from near midfield. Robinson absolutely devours 4th-string RB Mike Boone in the backfield. The Lions get another shot.

Once again the first-read throws by Blough are very effective. The up-tempo offense finds first downs with completions to Golladay, Logan Thomas and Jones. Decker’s pass protection in obvious passing situations here deserves respect, he’s great on Griffen this entire drive. Blough gets greedy looking for Thomas up the seam and safety Andrew Sendejo picks it off in the end zone. Game over, thank goodness.

Good games

Tracy Walker, Bo Scarbrough, Danny Amendola (except for one drop), Taylor Decker (outside the miscue sack), Ty Johnson, Frank Ragnow, John Atkins, Amani Oruwariye in coverage, Jahlani Tavai vs. the run, Sam Martin

Bad games

David Blough, Marvin Jones, Matt Prater, Rick Wagner, Jesse James, Jahlani Tavai in coverage, Damon Harrison (mostly), Romeo Okwara, A’Shawn Robinson outside of two great plays, Kenny Golladay aside from his TD catch

If you’re down on Blough as the potential Lions backup QB, this is probably the game that you point to in validation. The rookie was very rough in his second start, taking coverage sacks instead of throwing the ball away and leaving some opportunities on the field. The line was a lot better than Blough made it appear in this one, too.