With so many open questions about how teams are going to approach Week 18 – will playoff-bound teams find more value in resting players even if it costs them a higher seed or will teams near the bottom of the standings look to improve their draft stock?
There are very few games even on the prop board at the time of this publishing, so we’re focusing on the star players of those teams fighting to get into the playoffs.
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 18 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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NFL week 18 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:29 p.m. ET. All games ET and Sunday unless noted.
Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams SCORES A TD (-105)
– Host Chiefs, Saturday 4:30 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
Any time you get the league leader in receiving touchdowns as essentially money, you step up to the window and say, “Yes, please.”
Adams has 14 touchdowns this season, including 2 at the Chiefs in their 1st meeting this season. I don’t believe the Raiders have an answer for Kansas City defensively, so they’re going to be throwing a lot in the second half.
All throwing does is make Adams more deadly.
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Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers OVER 252.5 passing yards (-115)
– Host Lions, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
The Packers control their own fate to make the playoffs after sitting at 4-8 a month ago. Rodgers has only hit this number twice this season, but these are the Lions.
The Packers lost 15-9 in their 1st meeting vs. the Lions with Rodgers throwing for 291 yards. He has topped this number in 3 of his last 4 games against Detroit and 5 of his last 7.
With the Packers’ playoff life on the line, Rodgers is going to take things into his own hands, whether that is the result of the plays that are called or the ones he opts to audible out of.
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Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry UNDER 89.5 rushing yards (-105)
– At Jaguars, Saturday 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
I’ve loved winning prop bets on Henry when the books can only make the O/U so high. This bet is one the hedge is making the Over (at -125) too pricey. Unfortunately, the Jaguars have a chance to improbably win the AFC South and the Titans pass offense is a mess. All they have is Henry.
Therein lies the problem. The Jaguars are going to put 8 in the box on every play other than 3rd-and-longs and Henry will likely be out on those plays. I expect Henry to get 20 carries. I don’t expect those 20 carries to net 90 yards.
He literally may need closer to 30 carries because running lanes won’t be there when so many defenders are running downhill at him at the snap.
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase OVER 80.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Ravens, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bengals did the right thing by not re-starting Monday’s game with the Bills, but it came with a price.
The NFL has devised bizarre rules for the missed game, including that if the Ravens beat the Bengals — which would be a 2nd time this season — and they meet in the playoffs, home field will be determined by a coin flip. What?
The Bengals have a ton to play for here and Chase is the most dangerous downfield weapon they have. All it will take is one big splash play and 4 or 5 shorter route catches to hit this number.
Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf OVER 66.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Rams, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
For the Seahawks to make the playoffs, they need to win and the Packers need to lose to the Lions in the Sunday night game. The Rams are limping to the finish line with little to play for and less to risk.
Metcalf is a face of the franchise-type player and it’s in big games that those types of guys step up. The Rams play a lot of press-man coverage and it only takes one misstep for Metcalf to make that a bad decision and a big play. The rest will take care itself if he catches 3 or 4 more the rest of the game.
More NFL Week 18 picks and predictions
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