Pro Football Focus’ analytics show that the Houston Texans had the second-worst loss in the 2020 free agency period among all 32 NFL teams.
Pro Football Focus is at it again, and this time the football analytics firm claims the Houston Texans have had the second-worst loss in free agency.
With the new league year in full swing as of Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. Central Time, there has been ample time to evaluate all of the NFL’s offseason moves. As such, the Texans’ trading of receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals for running back David Johnson, and the customary swapping of picks therein, landed the AFC South champions as having had the second-worst free agency to this point.
The only team with a worse free agency period, according to the PFF metrics, was the New England Patriots with quarterback Tom Brady heading to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Indianapolis Colts had the best free agency period in the NFL, and were the only AFC South team on the positive side of the ledger. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans were below the meridian along with the Texans.
Chris Johnson took to Twitter to share his reaction on the DeAndre Hopkins trade.
There have been a number of puzzling moves made this offseason — but among the most startling of those was made by the Houston Texans on Tuesday.
We’re still struggling to understand the team’s decision to trade star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and a 2020 fourth-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for… running back David Johnson, a 2020 second-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick.
You know the gif of the puppy cocking his head surrounded by a bunch of question marks?
Yeah, you can insert that here.
Former Titans running back Chris Johnson, who went head-to-head with the division rival Texans several times in his career, shared a similar sentiment.
He took to Twitter on Wednesday, saying that there’s “no way” the Texans should have traded Hopkins.
It’s no way houston should have traded D-hop 🤦🏾♂️🤦🏾♂️🤦🏾♂️🤦🏾♂️🤦🏾♂️
The rumor mill is rolling with claims that there was bad blood between Hopkins and head coach Bill O’Brien, as well as a potential contract dispute.
It’s still unclear as to what exactly drove Houston to make this move — and it may always be that way — but it’s hard to argue the Texans didn’t just deal themselves a self-inflicted blow that could be costly in the future.
The Houston Texans coughing up star wideout DeAndre Hopkins in a trade with the Arizona Cardinals registered as one of the most shocking developments of free agency.
And somehow the Cincinnati Bengals have come up in all the talk.
According to Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, the Bengals were one of a few teams in discussions with the Texans about Hopkins:
“The Texans had previously made Hopkins available for a trade and had been actively attempting to deal him since the end of the season, when the team communicated privately it could move on from the South Carolina native. The Texans also held discussions about Hopkins with the Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals and Patriots, according to sources.”
It’s shocking to see the Bengals come up in this at all. It’s just as shocking to see the suddenly-aggressive team mentioned alongside usual big players like Philadelphia and New England.
Does this have merit? Why not? The Texans ended up trading one of the game’s best receivers for a fading running back (David Johnson), a second-round pick and a fourth-round pick in 2021.
Hopkins might want a new contract on top of it all. No biggie — he’s 27, elite, has missed just two games since 2013 and is the owner of three straight 1,100-plus yard seasons with 31 touchdowns over that span alone. He’s the perfect proven No. 1 wideout to help along a guy like Joe Burrow.
Clearly the talks, no matter how brief, didn’t work out. Names like Joe Mixon and A.J. Green probably came up. Logically, those are items the Texans would probably ask about in this hypothetical.
Onlookers probably shouldn’t consider this a big loss from a Bengals perspective. Alongside the major splashes in free agency, this might just be more proof major changes continue to happen inside Paul Brown Stadium.
Technically, these and all other transactions in the NFL over the last 48 hours aren’t yet official.
In a statement from Texans coach and general manager Bill O’Brien, no NFL team, including the Texans, are able to execute the agreed-upon contracts until the players have completed a physical and actually signed the agreement.
“In accordance with NFL policies, the Houston Texans have been prohibited from making any official announcements regarding free agent signings or trades until the player has safely completed a physical and signed a contract,” O’Brien said in a statement Wednesday. “Given the difficult and unprecedented circumstances engulfing the world right now, the health and safety of our communities is our foremost concern.”
Announcements of league transactions impacted by COVID-19.
However, O’Brien did say they are excited to welcome new members to the Texans, but in the meantime, the organization will, “do our best to keep fans informed, while keeping football in its proper perspective.”
Until the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention eases up on its recommendations for social distancing to mitigate against the COVID-19 outbreak, NFL teams won’t be able to meet with the players to finalize the contracts.
The Touchdown Wire evaluated the 2020 NFL free agency period’s first wave, and the Houston Texans are among the biggest losers.
The Houston Texans have made some moves during the legal tampering period of NFL free agency, such as signing receiver Randall Cobb and adding secondary help with cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and safety Eric Murray.
However, those moves pale in comparison to Monday’s trade that sent DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans’ 2020 fourth-round pick to the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for running back David Johnson, a 2020 second-round pick, and a 2021 fourth-round selection.
They traded away one of the game’s best wide receivers. They acquired a running back (with a big contract) and picks in return. They still lack a first round selection, and while they could theoretically move into the first round now given their two second round picks, what will they draft there? A wide receiver? Why not hold on to the one you have, rather than bank on the one that could be?
There are pro-Texans rumors circulating that Hopkins was asking for the organization to re-work his contract with two years left on his five-year contract worth $81 million. Then, there are pro-Hopkins rumors that cast coach Bill O’Brien, now full-time general manager, in an unfavorable, gauche light that made a trade all but inevitable.
Somewhere in the middle could be the truth; the full documentation won’t reverse the trade for heartbroken Texans fans.
What is reality is the salary cap hit the Texans will take from adding Johnson and his contract. Over the next two seasons, Houston will incur a cap hit of $20 million, all for a running back who saw his most meritorious season in 2016.
If the Texans lose big in 2020, critics will point to their losing streak beginning in free agency.
Free agency is officially underway, but many deals have been agreed to in principle and trades have been made. Winners? Losers?
With free agency in the National Football League officially opening on Wednesday afternoon, NFL fans are getting a clearer picture of how their favorite team will look headed into the next big piece of the off-season: The NFL Draft.
Given what we have seen to date, who are some winners of the free agency period so far, and who are the losers?
Winners
Miami Dolphins
(Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
The Miami Dolphins entered free agency with two major tools at their disposal: Salary cap space and draft capital. They put the former to work over the start of the free agency period, making a number of critical additions, particularly on the defensive side of the football. They added former Buffalo Bills EDGE Shaq Lawson to the front of their defense, and his 6.5 sacks from a season ago would have led the Dolphins. They added linebacker Kyle Van Noy from the New England Patriots, who served in a few different roles for the Patriots a season ago. The off-ball linebacker can rush the passer but can also handle coverage responsibilities. They also added cornerback Byron Jones, who has true lockdown corner abilities and also some versatility, having played safety in his career as well.
Offensively, the Dolphins added Ereck Flowers, who seemed to rejuvenate his career after a switch to guard. Miami added to their running back group by adding Jordan Howard, giving them a solid runner to complement their arsenal of pass-catching backs.
Now what can they do? Well, they have three first-round selections and six in the top 70 selections.
The Dolphins are in a great spot right now, and with some wise draft picks, they are set up to contend in the AFC East sooner rather than later.
Buffalo Bills
(Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports)
The driver for this ranking is the acquisition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Buffalo Bills acquired him from the Minnesota Vikings along with a seventh-round selection in this draft in exchange for picks in the first, fifth and sixth rounds this year an a fourth-round selection in the 2021 draft.
The Bills made the playoffs a year ago despite quarterback Josh Allen struggling as a downfield passer. Allen ranked 23rd of 24 qualified passers in Adjusted Completion Percentage on downfield throws last season, according to charting from Pro Football Focus. Getting a downfield threat in Diggs, who had a career-high 1,130 yards receiving and an impressive 17.9 yards per reception a season ago will go a long way towards helping Allen in the vertical passing game. Diggs saw 29 targets of over 20 yards last season, catching 16 of those for 635 yards and six touchdowns. Those 29 deep passing targets tied Diggs for the third-most in the league. Additionally, Diggs just signed a contract extension last off-season and is signed through the 2023 campaign.
That alone makes the Bills winners, but they also added on the defensive side of the football with outside linebacker Mario Addison, defensive tackle Vernon Butler, defensive end Quinton Jefferson, and inside linebacker Tyler Matakevich. Plus, they retained free safety Jordan Poyer, a critical component on the back of their defense. All very solid moves for Buffalo.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
They added the greatest quarterback of all time.
That alone should make the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a winner.
Now some might question the fit of Tom Brady in Bruce Arians’ passing game, but as we here at Touchdown Wire have argued, Brady is still playing the position at a high level, and his fit in what Arians does schematically is more ideal than you might think it is.
Brady instantly makes this offense dangerous. The Buccaneers were able to put up points a year ago, but the 30 interceptions thrown by Jameis Winston consistently put the Tampa Bay defense in difficult positions. Brady’s penchant for avoiding big mistakes will go a long way towards improving this offense.
But beyond Brady, the Buccaneers retained two big components of their pass rush in Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. They applied the franchise tag to Barrett, giving them time to work out a long-term extension, and they signed a two year extension with Pierre-Paul. Furthermore, they might not be done, as reports indicate they might even be interested in running back Todd Gurley and a wide receiver as well.
Cleveland Browns
(Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports)
The Cleveland Browns made a number of moves that are completely logical and give us a window into how they will approach their offense in the year ahead. They acquired the best tight end available on the market, bringing in Austin Hooper from the Atlanta Falcons. Hooper might struggle to win one-on-ones consistently, but with Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry on the outside, he will continue to see favorable matchups on the inside of the Browns’ passing game. This might not necessarily spell the end of David Njoku’s time in Cleveland, however, given how much Kevin Stefanski relies on two-tight end packages. Last year the Minnesota Vikings used 12 offensive personnel 35 percent of the time, and only the Philadelphia Eagles surpassed that as a percentage of their offensive plays.
Cleveland also added a tackle, acquiring Jack Conklin from the Tennessee Titans. Conklin was a solid right tackle last season after returning from injury, and gives Cleveland a solid option on that side of the line. Considering that they likely look to draft a tackle with the tenth overall selection to lock down the left tackle spot, the Browns might be close to fixing their tackle spots. They acquired Case Keenum, who can serve as a veteran backup familiar with Stefanski’s offense while also perhaps as a mentor to Baker Mayfield. Finally, they added fullback Andy Janovich via a trade with the Denver Broncos. After 12 offensive personnel, the Vikings used 21 offensive personnel (two running backs, one tight end and two wide receivers) 26 percent of the time last year, their second-most utilized personnel package. For a team that is likely to rely on 12 and 21 personnel packages, the Browns addressed some critical needs.
Arizona Cardinals
(Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)
In a move that left many wondering what exactly the Houston Texans were doing, the Arizona Cardinals acquired DeAndre Hopkins in a trade with the Texans, and were also able to shed the contract of David Johnson in the process, sending him to the AFC South. In Hopkins the Cardinals get one of the premier wide receivers in the NFL, and since they still hold the eighth overall selection in the draft, they could conceivably draft their choice of the top WRs in this draft class, which many consider to be a historically deep group. You could see Kyler Murray lining up next season with a 10 personnel package with Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and CeeDee Lamb at his disposal. Good luck defense.
Beyond the Hopkins addition, Arizona added defensive tackle Jordan Phillips, to help the interior of their defensive line, and placed the transition tag on running back Kenyan Drake. That will give the Cardinals the chance to match any contract he is offered on the open market. But the big piece is Hopkins, and given the minimal expenditure (Johnson, a second round pick and a fourth round pick in 2021) it was a steal.
The Arizona Cardinals shocked the NFL on Monday when they were able to get DeAndre Hopkins — one of the top receivers in the league — in exchange for a couple picks and running back David Johnson, whose production has dropped off significantly the past couple seasons.
The Arizona Cardinals shocked the NFL on Monday when they were able to get DeAndre Hopkins — one of the top receivers in the league — in exchange for a couple picks and running back David Johnson, whose production has dropped off significantly the past couple seasons.
The Arizona Cardinals shocked the NFL on Monday when they were able to get DeAndre Hopkins — one of the top receivers in the league — in exchange for a couple picks and running back David Johnson, whose production has dropped off significantly the past couple seasons.
The Arizona Cardinals shocked the NFL on Monday when they were able to get DeAndre Hopkins — one of the top receivers in the league — in exchange for a couple picks and running back David Johnson, whose production has dropped off significantly the past couple seasons.
The Arizona Cardinals shocked the NFL on Monday when they were able to get DeAndre Hopkins — one of the top receivers in the league — in exchange for a couple picks and running back David Johnson, whose production has dropped off significantly the past couple seasons.
The Arizona Cardinals shocked the NFL on Monday when they were able to get DeAndre Hopkins — one of the top receivers in the league — in exchange for a couple picks and running back David Johnson, whose production has dropped off significantly the past couple seasons.
He is reportedly seeking $18-$20 million per year.
The Arizona Cardinals were believed to have gotten a steal with their trade to acquire receiver DeAndre Hopkins from the Houston Texans. There is apparently a reason for that. He wanted to redo his deal and was planning on a holdout if he didn’t get it, according to ESPN’s Dianna Russini.
After the Texans agreed to trade DeAndre Hopkins, sources told me Hopkins' reps told the Texans weeks prior he wanted a new deal paying him somewhere between $18- $20mil per year. The team was told Hopkins wouldn't show, if he didn't get the deal. Houston moved forward with trade
Hopkins has three years remaining on his current deal, a five-year, $81 million contract he signed in 2017. However, he has no guarantees remaining in his deal and will make $12.5 million in 2020, $13.5 million in 2021 and $13.9 million in 2022.
It will be interesting to see if Hopkins will insist on a new contract from the Cardinals before he reports. He has been a first-team All-Pro each of the last three seasons and has had over 95 catches each of the last three years and over 100 in two of them.
He sees Amari Cooper get a five-year, $100 million deal and would like to be paid like that.
It would be a new practice for the Cardinals to renegotiate a contract with three years remaining, but it wasn’t a contract they gave him initially, so perhaps they will make an exception.
Of course, they could simply throw some guarantees in there for now or pay him some up front and then redo his deal next offseason when there are two years remaining.
We will how this plays out in the offseason for the Cardinals.
