This much is certain: Rarely has a fight been more shrouded in doubt than the heavyweight title rematch between Andy Ruiz Jr. and Anthony Joshua on Saturday in Diriyah, Saudi Arabia on DAZN.
Even the locale seems to have air of uncertainty: a makeshift, 15,000 seat arena pitched in the middle of the Arabian desert in a country that still ritualizes public beheadings. What could possibly go wrong?
Whatever happens, the burning questions that opened up like Pandora’s Box on June 1 will finally – one hopes – be answered when Joshua tries to reclaim his heavyweight belt collection from Ruiz, the underdog incarnate.
At stake are three of the four major titles and a possible title-unification fight with the winner of tentative Deontay Wilder-Tyson Fury matchup.
ANDY RUIZ JR. (33-1, 22 KOs)
VS. ANTHONY JOSHUA (22-1-0, 21 KOs)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 7
Location: Diriyah Arena, Diriyah, Saudi Arabia
TV: DAZN
Division: Heavyweight
At stake: Ruiz’s WBO, IBF and WBA titles
Current win streak: Ruiz, 4; Joshua, 0
Ages: Both 30
Stances: Both orthodox
Trajectory: Both at peak
Also fighting: Michael Hunter vs. Alexander Povetkin, heavyweights; Dillian Whyte vs. Mariusz Wach, heavyweights; Filip Hrgovic vs. Eric Molina, heavyweights.
Worth watching (up to five stars)? * * * * *
SKILL SET
Ruiz
The fact that Ruiz can throw rapid combinations without looking like a klutz already puts him at an advantage over most contemporary heavyweights. He has a solid jab, which he threw consistently at Joshua’s chest in the first fight, and is skilled at parrying, which allows him to get closer to his opponent to unload his combinations. He may not be the most elusive fighter, but Ruiz shifts his upper body as he comes forward, which keeps the opposition guessing. He also doesn’t tip his shots. And his footwork is underrated. Against Alexander Dimitrenko, Ruiz pulled off the so-called “Fitzsimmons shift,” in which one switches stances to land a punch.
Joshua
Although he is fundamentally sound – Joshua can put together short, concise punches on the inside – it’s evident that he came late to the sport. The criticism that Joshua is robotic is true to the extent that he seems to overthink his strategy in the ring. Joshua is the antithesis of a “natural” boxer like Ruiz, who picked up the sport early on and whose punches arise more out of muscle memory and instinct, rather than deliberation. Joshua’s trainer, Rob McCracken, recently insisted that Joshua’s best bet is to box on the outside. But one wonders whether Joshua, a puncher by trade, can keep that up for 12 rounds. Moreover, he looked uncomfortable working behind his jab and moving off the back foot from the opening bell in the first fight.
Edge: Ruiz
PUNCHING POWER
Ruiz
Nobody ever viewed Ruiz as a power-punching heavyweight. He has gone the distance with a fair share of undistinguished journeymen in the past. Still, as it pertains to Joshua, Ruiz knows he can hurt the man, and that’s all that matters in this case.
Joshua
There is a reason Joshua was a heavy favorite going into the first fight. He is a heavyweight who can crack with both hands. Ruiz may feel emboldened after absorbing some major leather early on in the first fight, but best not to test the chin too many times. Joshua will need to force Ruiz to respect his power this time around.
Edge: Joshua
EXPERIENCE
Ruiz
Ruiz has been boxing since he was a child and had a largely successful amateur career. That said, outside of the Joshua win, his professional resume is pedestrian.
Joshua
Though Joshua’s ledger includes victories over a trio of top heavyweights in Wladimir Klitschko, Joseph Parker and Dillian Whyte, nothing can disguise the fact that he picked up boxing at the late age of 18. His freakish power may have shored up some of his weaknesses, but he appears to be a fighter still learning on the job.
Edge: Ruiz
DURABILITY
Ruiz
Most fighters would have wilted after eating a right uppercut- left hook combination from Joshua, but Ruiz, who touched the canvas, was able to rebound. When Joshua followed up with a caterwauling straight hand, Ruiz didn’t blink. The Mexican, to be sure, has an iron chin.
Joshua
Though he is built like Adonis, Joshua’s chin has always been suspect, as evidenced in fights against Klitschko, Whyte and Povetkin. Ruiz merely confirmed it. Indeed, since the Klitschko win, his trainer has tried to mold Joshua into more of a finesse boxer, less open to heavy counters at close range. If only one could add muscle to the jaw …
Edge: Ruiz
INTANGIBLES
Ruiz
Ruiz may just have Joshua’s number. At the very least, he has the psychological advantage of having completely outclassed Joshua in the first fight. Recently, he said that there was not much he planned to change going into the rematch, and that makes sense. If it ain’t broke …
Joshua
When it was announced that Luis Pabon had been chosen to referee the fight, some observers viewed (groaned?) it as a clear advantage for Joshua. Pabon has a history of allowing fighters to clinch (see the Klitschko-Povetkin fight) while he breaks up the action. Holding, it should be reminded, is illegal in professional boxing, although it is rarely enforced. Pabon certainly has not shown much inclination to do so.
Edge: Ruiz
PREDICTION
The fight will play out similarly to the first fight, with Joshua moving tentatively around the ring as Ruiz stalks him. Joshua will have early success using his size and length to keep the shorter Ruiz at bay. Eventually, Joshua will begin to tire, as he customarily does, in the second half of the fight. Ruiz will turn up the pressure, cutting the distance to land quick-fire combinations against which Joshua will have little defense.
Ruiz TKO 8
