Daytona International Speedway odds line picks predictions best bets

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Daytona International Speedway Sunday for the 2022 Daytona 500. The green flag is set to drop a little after 2:30 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2022 Daytona 500 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions.

Front Row Motorsports driver Michael McDowell, in the No. 34 Ford machine, is the defending Daytona 500 champion. If you think he is a one-trick pony, think again, as he led the third practice session with a best speed of 192.678 mph. Ford had eight of the top nine times in the third practice run.

Ford posted the top eight fastest times in the fourth practice session with Wood Brothers Racing’s Harrison Burton’s speed of 188.355 mph leading the way. Also of note for Ford drivers was Team Penske’s Austin Cindric (188.265, third) and Stewart-Haas Racing’s Chase Briscoe (188.229, fifth).

While Ford dominated the latter practice sessions, the Hendrick Chevrolets were on top in qualifying. Defending series champ Kyle Larson will start off the pole after turning a 181.159 mph speed and teammate Alex Bowman will be on his side. Hendricks’ William Byron was third-best in qualifying at 180.850 mph – he’ll start 23rd.

SHR’s Aric Almirola was fourth in qualifying and the top Ford at 180.527 mph – he’ll start 38th. The top Toyota in qualifying was Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. at 180.040 mph – he’ll start in the sixth position.

2022 Daytona 500: What you need to know

23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace, fresh off a Netflix Series, leads all active drivers with a 13.67 Average-Finish Position (AFP) with a minimum of four NASCAR Cup Series starts. He has three top-5 runs, three top-10 runs, and nine laps led at DIS.
Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott, who placed second behind McDowell at last year’s 500, has just a 21.1 AFP in 12 career Cup starts at Daytona. The runner-up was his best career finish at the track, but he also has four DNFs (did not finish), or one wreck in every three starts at the Florida superspeedway.
JGR’s Denny Hamlin has three Daytona 500 victories, including back-to-back checkers in the Great American Race in 2019 and ’20. He has 11 top-5 finishes at DIS with 635 laps led in 32 career Cup Series runs.

Who is going to win the 2022 Daytona 500?

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET.

Hendrick’s LARSON (+1000) is going to be a popular choice going off from the top of Row 1. Not only is he the defending Cup Series champ, but he posted 10 checkered flags and 20 top-5 runs in 36 starts in a dominant 2021. Can he dominate in the new NextGen Chevy Camaro ZL1 this season? We’ll soon find out.

It’s not much of a sample size, but Larson was seventh in the Bluegreen Vacations Duel Race No. 1 Thursday with 34 laps led, and he took a fifth-place finish in the Clash at the Coliseum in Los Angeles Feb. 6.

The chalk is HAMLIN (+900), and rightly so. He leads the field with three Daytona wins and 635 laps led at DIS. The No. 11 machine goes off on the outside of Row 4.

Larson’s teammate BOWMAN (+2000) doesn’t have any Daytona wins, but he has a solid 17.45 AFP in 11 career starts with three top-10 finishes and just one DNF. As mentioned, he’ll start on the outside of Row 1 next to his pole-sitting teammate Larson.

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Long-shot bets for the 2022 Daytona 500

ALMIROLA (+2000) has always been a threat on the superspeedways. It’s where he does his best work as a Cup driver. The “Cuban Missile” has a new crew chief in Drew Blickensderfer. Almirola announced 2022 will be his final season as a full-time competitor, and it would be a storybook finish for the Florida-born driver in possibly his final 500.

WALLACE (+2000) has a runner-up at Daytona, and a third of his career Cup starts at the track have resulted in top-5 finishes, while he leads all drivers with a 13.67 AFP (min. four starts). At this price he is worth a roll of the dice.

CINDRIC (+3000) has slightly longer odds, but he looked good in practice, was 15th in his Daytona debut last season and he starts from the blackjack position at 21. TrackHouse Racing’s ROSS CHASTAIN (+4000), who qualified seventh, is also worth a small-unit play.

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The NASCAR Cup Series kicks off the 2021 season at Daytona International Speedway Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET for the Daytona 500. Below we analyze the Daytona 500 NASCAR odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.

Daytona 500: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 4:18 p.m. ET.

The Cup Series is scheduled to kick off its 2021 season Sunday for the Great American Race, the Daytona 500. However, we’ll have to keep a close eye on the sky. There is greater than a 60 percent chance of showers from mid-afternoon through the early evening in Daytona Beach, Fla., so a delay and/or postponement seems likely given the ominous forecast.

Monday’s forecast calls for mostly clear in the morning with a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms moving in around 1 p.m. ET. But there is an open window in the event the race is postponed Sunday.

Kyle Busch won the Busch Clash at Daytona on Tuesday night on the road course. While that certainly doesn’t mean sure success on the tri-oval, it gives Busch a springboard into the new season after a disastrous 2020.
Busch’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin has won each of the past two Daytona 500 races. In last year’s win, he was originally slotted in the 21st starting position but was moved to the back of the pack due to multiple failed inspections. In 30 career starts at the track he has three wins, 10 top-5 finishes and a 16.33 Average-Finish Position (AFP).
Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon picked up the checkered flag at the 500 in 2018. Good finishes on the restrictor-plate track are nothing new for Dillon. In 15 career starts at DIS, he has the 2018 win, two top-5 finishes, seven top-10 runs and a pole in 2014. He also has a stellar 15.53 AFP on the Florida superspeedway.
Bubba Wallace will make his debut for owner Michael Jordan’s 23XI Racing, running in the No. 23 car. He was the runner-up to Dillon in 2018, posting the highest finish by an African-American driver in the 500. Bubba was fastest in Wednesday’s practice.

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Who is going to win the Daytona 500?

HAMLIN (+500) is the chalk, but you have to figure it’s time for someone else. The No. 11 has been to Victory Lane in each of the past two seasons in the Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing. Hamlin’s two wins, and three victories in the past five seasons, gives manufacturer Toyota checkered flags in three of the past five Daytona 500 races.

Hamlin joined Sterling Marlin (1994-95), Cale Yarborough (1983-84) and Richard Petty (1973-74) as the only drivers to win the Daytona 500 in consecutive seasons. No one has ever won the Daytona 500 in three straight years.

Stewart-Haas Racing’s KEVIN HARVICK (+1200) has some rather long odds given his previous success at the track. He has made 39 career starts on the Daytona tri-oval, posting two wins, 10 top-5 finishes, 262 laps led and a sharp 17.6 AFP. He also has eight DNFs at the track, second-most among active drivers behind KYLE BUSCH (+1400), so there is some risk.

Penske Racing’s JOEY LOGANO (+900) is looking to get back to Victory Lane at the 500 for the first time since 2015. He owns an impressive 18.17 AFP in 24 career DIS starts, including nine finishes of 10th or better with 156 laps led.

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Daytona 500 long-shot bet

RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (+2500) of JTG Daugherty Racing was on the pole last season and was fifth fastest in qualifying at 189.565 mph. He is always a driver to watch on the superspeedways, especially Daytona. He has a win in 17 career starts, 121 laps led and 10 finishes of 20th or better while going for a solid 19.59 AFP.

ARIC ALMIROLA (+1800) doesn’t have quite as long of odds, but he is worth a look. He appeared to be on his way to a win at the 500 in 2018, but he was bumped by Dillon and sent careening into the wall. He does have a career win in Daytona in the summer race, and he has 10 finishes of 20th or better in 18 career starts with a 20.56 AFP.

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