The entire landscape of college football will look different in 2024, with new teams in different conferences and an expanded College Football Playoff at the end of the year. For the Oregon Ducks, a move to the Big Ten Conference will have us enthralled as we try to figure out where they stand among their new foes, and how quickly they will be able to find success in the new landscape.
This past week on the Sco-ing Long Podcast, I had the pleasure of talking to Dan Rubenstein, a well-respected football voice who is the co-host of the Solid Verbal College Football podcast. Though Rubenstein is an Oregon alum, he watches the sport through a national scope, and he is well-equipped to inform unsuspecting Duck fans of what they should expect in the new conference.
“I think the lines of scrimmage will be better than some of what we’ve seen in the past few years in the Pac-12,” Rubenstein said. “I think the quarterbacks are going to be largely worse, which provides I think a really nice opportunity for Oregon.”
While the Ducks have a new QB coming to town in Dillon Gabriel, who is hoping to fill the big shoes left by Bo Nix, the offensive firepower is at such a high level that they shouldn’t have any problem finding success early on.
“I want to say that there are too many below-average teams for Oregon not to succeed on a big level immediately,” Rubenstein said. “There are too many teams that I have no faith in — and I’m not even making an Iowa joke here — but most weeks you’re going to need 30-38 points in order to beat Oregon with how explosive I think this offense will continue to be.”
[lawrence-related id=57295]
The Ducks averaged over 44 points per game in 2023, and they return many of the offensive weapons from that squad, as well as a majority of the offensive line. A common question this offseason has been about what the Oregon staff is going to need to shift or alter this offseason in order to prepare for their new, bigger conference. That may be the wrong question, ultimately, though.
The Ducks become new members of the Big Ten in 2024. Will they be able to compete right away?
"I’m not saying Oregon is going to win the conference, but I’m saying Oregon should have a pretty good time next year.” — @DanRubenstein
(@BleavNetwork) pic.twitter.com/wtgkxaU1Fe
— Zachary Neel (@zacharycneel) February 14, 2024
“I really like the quote from Dan Lanning saying that ‘people ask how we’re going to adjust to the Big Ten, it’s more how is the Big Ten going to adjust to Oregon?’” Rubenstein said. “By and large, you look at the offenses on display here, there are not going to be a lot of teams who are going to be able to score with Oregon unless their defenses are on like Iowa’s level.”
Dominant defenses in the conference are a different story. In 2023, the Big Ten was home to the top-four scoring defenses in the nation, with Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, and Penn State all allowing fewer than 15 points per game. Outside of that, though, only one other Big Ten team allowed fewer than 20 points per game.
“I just don’t think there are teams who are going to have such an overwhelming slant to defensive strength that it’s going to force Oregon to win a bunch of 13-10 games,” Rubenstein said.
[lawrence-related id=57256]
Overall, it’s fair to characterize the Big Ten as a top-heavy conference. Some of the best teams in the nation — Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, and Penn State — lead the way, but teams like Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, and Rutgers all weigh down the averages as much as the others prop them up. With a lot of personnel changes for some of the top teams, it’s somewhat hard to find a roster that is completely formidable at this point in the offseason. Even Ohio State, a team that is widely thought to be one of the top teams in the nation, has some potential holes.
“The thing that I’ve talked about on (The Solid Verbal) a lot is show me your combination of quarterback and defense,” Rubenstein said. “You’re bringing in an incredible looking Ohio State defense and a new quarterback in Will Howard, who has a pretty interesting ceiling. But he loses a couple of significant weapons at receiver with Marvin Harrison Jr., Julian Fleming, and Noah Rogers, guys like that.”
The defending champion Michigan Wolverines also have some really great players returning on defense, but the loss of QB J.J. McCarthy, RB Blake Corum, and head coach Jim Harbaugh leave us with a lot of questions going into 2024 as well.
Ultimately. it leaves a conference that projects to be very solid but doesn’t have an undeniable top team at the moment. This could leave a very enticing opportunity for Dan Lanning and the Ducks to step in and find massive success right away.
“Show me the passing game, show me the quarterback, show me the defense, and there’s just not a lot in the Big Ten that checks those boxes,” Rubenstein said. “I’m not saying that Oregon is winning the conference, but I’m saying that Oregon should have a pretty good time next year.”
[lawrence-auto-related count=3]