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The Phoenix Mercury (9-10) and Dallas Wings (4-15) meet Wednesday at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mercury vs. Wings odds, and make our expert WNBA picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Mercury have dropped 3 of the past 4 games, while also going 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in the span. The Under has cashed in all 4 of those outings, too.
These teams have already met twice, once in the Metroplex when Phoenix escaped with a 97-90 win in 2 OT June 9 as a 1-point favorite as the Over (163) cashed.
In that June meeting, Phoenix shot 46.3% (37-of-80) from the field, and just 27.3% (9-of-33) from behind the arc, while Dallas had a 36-to-29 rebounding margin.
The Mercury got to the free-throw line 5 more times in that meeting, converting 14-of-19 from the stripe, while the Wings were 10-of-14. The Wings had a plus-1 turnover margin, while going plus-4 with points in the paint. However, the big difference was one technical foul and one flagrant foul on the Wings.
In an earlier meeting, Dallas won 107-92 in Phoenix May 25, easily a season high in production. The Over has cashed in both head-to-head meetings this season, and the Over is 4-1 in the past 5 games for Dallas since June 22.
Mercury at Wings odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mercury -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Wings +184 (bet $100 to win $184)
- Against the spread: Mercury -5 (-110) | Wings +5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 170 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Mercury at Wings picks and predictions
Prediction
Mercury 87, Wings 85
Moneyline
Phoenix (-230) will cost 2.3 times the potential return, which is a bit risky considering the fact it has had quite a bit of trouble with Dallas.
In fact, if you were forced to pick a side, the Wings would be the much better value at +184. However, the best play is to PASS.
Against the spread
BACK DALLAS +5 (-110) catching the points at home.
The Wings played their hearts out in the 2OT win last time they hosted the Mercury. With a little more discipline, that game could have gone another way. Dallas hasn’t won many, but it did get the job done in Phoenix earlier this season.
The Wings have been a major thorn in the side of the Mercury, and they’re worth backing catching more than 2 buckets.
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Over/Under
OVER 170 (-112) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Mercury are not a very good defensive team, ranking 9th in both points allowed (84.7) and 3-point defensive field-goal percentage (35.1%). However, they are just so-so offensively, too.
For the Wings, they have the worst scoring defense in the WNBA, allowing 88.1 PPG, while checking in 11th with a 45.3% field-goal percentage.
The Over has hit in the first 2 meetings this season, so let’s keep rolling with the Over until Dallas and Phoenix show some semblance of D.
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