The New Orleans Pelicans (6-17) host the Dallas Mavericks (10-9) Wednesday at Smoothie King Center for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Pelicans odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Dallas has lost five of its last six games including back-to-back home losses to the Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Mavs are 8-11 ATS and 7-11-1 O/U with the 23rd-best net rating.
NOLA has won three of its last four games, which include a 123-104 beatdown of the Los Angeles Clippers as a seven-point road underdog last time out Monday. The Pelicans are 10-13 ATS and 7-15-1 O/U with the 26th-best net rating.
The Mavs have won seven of their last eight games against the Pelicans and Dallas hammered NOLA 108-92 in their first meeting this season.
Mavericks at Pelicans odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:51 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Pelicans +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks -2.5 (-120) | Pelicans +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Mavericks at Pelicans key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) questionable
- C Willie Cauley-Stein (illness) out
Pelicans
- PF Zion Williamson (foot) out
Mavericks at Pelicans odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Pelicans 113, Mavericks 108
Money line
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Pelicans (+120) because NOLA’s money line should be north of +150 and I don’t feel like chasing value in this spot.
However, if I were to play either side of the money line, I’d bet the Pelicans because I “like” NOLA plus the points.
Against the spread
BET PELICANS +2.5 (-105) for 1 unit as more of a fade against the Mavericks who haven’t been playing well recently.
Dallas is 1-5 overall over the last two weeks and has a slightly lower efficiency differential according to CleaningTheGlass.com than NOLA who is 4-4 overall.
The Mavs also have a minus-4.3 spread differential in those games (ranked 25th) while the Pelicans have a plus-6.0 spread differential (ranked second).
New Orleans was missing both wings Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones in the first game against Dallas early last month. Ingram is a former All-Star who grades in the 79th percentile of wings in on/off efficiency differential and Jones grades in the 93rd percentile according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Dallas also has a tendency to play down to its competition. For instance, the Mavs are 2-6 ATS against teams with a losing record. And, last season, Dallas was 23rd in efficiency differential versus bottom-10 defenses and dead-last in ATS margin.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 216.5 (-107) for a half-unit only because I prefer the Pelicans getting points more so than the total in this contest. But, NOLA’s pick-and-roll defense is atrocious, which is a concern when playing F Luka Doncic.
Also, Pelicans big Jonas Valančiūnas should dominate the paint in this matchup. The Mavs could be without three of the best defenders, two of which are in the frontcourt.
Valančiūnas is low-key playing at an All-Star level currently. He’s top-20 in PER, Win Shares, Value Over Replacement Player and has the best 3-point percentage in the NBA. So, Valančiūnas not only can feast on Dallas’s weakened interior defense but also space the floor and open driving lanes.
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