The Milwaukee Bucks (48-29) host the Dallas Mavericks (48-30) Sunday for a matinee on ABC. Tip-off at the Fiserv Forum is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas had its 3-game winning streak snapped Friday after getting blown out 135-103 on the road by the Wizards. In the last two weeks, the Mavs are 5-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU and ATS in the last 14 days, but was crushed 153-119 Friday by the Los Angeles Clippers. However, the Bucks were without their Big 3 — PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF Khris Middleton and PG Jrue Holiday.
The Bucks beat the Mavs 102-95 in Dallas Dec. 23 as 3.5-point road favorites, but Milwaukee was missing Giannis and the Mavs didn’t have All-Star PG Luka Doncic.
Mavericks at Bucks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mavericks +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Bucks -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mavericks +5.5 (-105) | Bucks -5.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 227.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Mavericks at Bucks key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Maxi Kleber (ankle) questionable
Bucks
- PF Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) probable
[tipico]
Mavericks at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 117, Bucks 114
Money line
SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+175) with the plan of hitting Dallas’s spread harder.
Luka has been playing at an MVP-caliber the past five weeks and performs well against Holiday.
Since the All-Star break, Luka is averaging 30.1 points on 60.6% true shooting (.478/.382/.772) with 9.1 rebounds and 7.5 assists.
Luka has averaged 25.8 points on 49.7% shooting, 9.4 rebounds and 8.3 assists in 9 career head-to-head meetings with Holiday dating back to when Holiday played for the New Orleans Pelicans.
Furthermore, Milwaukee’s opponents are shooting a ridiculous 42.0% from behind the arc in its last 7 games and the Bucks allow the most 3-point attempts per game.
Dallas has the fifth-highest 3-point attempt rate so the Mavs will be comfy versus Milwaukee’s defense and could steal this game outright if Luka gets the ball to open 3-point shooters.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Against the spread
Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +5.5 (-102) instead of or heavier than their ML.
Dallas is eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), and the Bucks -4.5 (-112) struggle against tough defenses.
The Bucks are 11-14 SU versus teams with a top-10 defensive efficiency with a minus-4.6 adjusted net rating (ranked 17th) and the worst ATS margin (minus-7.7), per CTG.
On top of that, Dallas is more profitable than Milwaukee when stepping up in competition. The Mavs are 12-7 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record and have a plus-2.9 ATS margin (ranked sixth) when playing teams in the top-10 of adjusted net rating, per CTG.
Whereas the Bucks are 7-13 ATS at home versus winning teams and the second-worst ATS margin when playing top-10 teams (minus-6.1).
The MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 227.5 (-112) because both teams have a bottom-10 adjusted defensive efficiency in the last 14 days, per CTG.
Also, Dallas’s offense is ranked eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency the last two weeks and if Milwaukee is going to let the Mavs chuck 3s then they should put up some points.
It’s only a LEAN to the OVER 227.5 (-112) because I’m much more confident in Dallas covering against Milwaukee.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]