Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors odds predictions pick betting line spread

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Golden State Warriors (14-10) welcome the Dallas Mavericks (16-9) to Chase Center Sunday. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Warriors lead 1-0

The Warriors lost to the Houston Rockets 91-90 Wednesday, closing as 3-point road underdogs. They were led by F Jonathan Kuminga, who scored 20 points on just 8-for-20 shooting. Golden State is just 2-7 over its last 9 yet has gone 4-4-1 against the spread (ATS). It is 14-9-1 ATS on the season.

After a rougher-than-expected start to the season, the Mavericks have won 11 of their last 13 and are coming off a 118-104 loss at the Oklahoma City Thunder Tuesday, failing to cover as 4-point underdogs. Tuesday’s loss snapped a 7-game win streak for Dallas, which has gone 6-2 ATS in its last 8 and 14-10-1 ATS this season.

Mavericks at Warriors odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NBA odds. Lines last updated at 11:59 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mavericks -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Warriors +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Against the spread: Mavericks -3.5 (-105) | Warriors +3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 229.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

G Dante Exum (wrist) out

Warriors

G Stephen Curry (cervical) questionable
G Moses Moody (knee) out
F Andrew Wiggins (adductor) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 117, Mavericks 115

Moneyline

PASS.

While the predicted outcome suggests the Warriors moneyline is a smart play, the better value is on the home side’s spread, especially with 3 of their last 7 games ending within 4 points.

Against the spread

BET WARRIORS +3.5 (-115).

The Warriors have covered 4 of their last 5 games yet have gone just 2-3 straight up. They have gone 6-4-1 ATS at home this season. Golden State has a strong defense as well, holding opponents to 107 or fewer points in 4 straight games.

While the Mavericks have been surging, they cooled off against a quality opponent in Oklahoma City Tuesday. Dallas’ recent success hasn’t been against many top-tier sides, and it lost to Golden State earlier in the season despite shooting over 50% from the field.

Take WARRIORS +3.5 (-115).

Over/Under

BET OVER 229.5 (-115).

Both teams like to play at a fast tempo, and a faster pace should mean more points. The Warriors rank 9th and the Mavericks are 6th in pace. Golden State is 11-13 O/U on the season and 4-4 O/U in its last 8 at home.

The Mavericks, who have allowed at least 116 points in 4 of their last 5 games, have gone Over in 3 of their last 5 and are 13-11-1 O/U on the season. Dallas is 7-3 O/U in its last 10.

Take OVER 229.5 (-115).

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Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Dallas Mavericks (45-29) wrap up a 5-game road trip on Tuesday against the Golden State Warriors (40-33). Tip-off at Chase Center is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Mavericks lead 2-0; Dallas is 2-0 against the spread (ATS), with the Over-Under splitting 1-1

The Mavs enter on a 7-game winning streak, while covering the past 5 outings. The Over cashed in Houston (229.5) in a 125-107 win on Sunday, halting a 6-0 run to the Under.

The Mavs are 11-1 ATS in the past 12 outings, while the total has gone low in 8 of the past 10 games for Dallas. That includes a 109-99 win as 8.5-point favorites as the Under (233) cashed in the most recent meeting with the Warriors in the Metroplex on March 13.

The Warriors have won 4 straight games, their longest success streak since rattling off 5 straight wins from Feb. 5-12. Golden State is 3-1 ATS in the win streak, although it failed to cover in a 117-113 win last time out in San Antonio on Sunday as the Over (228.5) cashed. The Under is 3-1 in the past 4 outings.

Dallas holds a slight 4-3 SU edge in the past 7 meetings, but the Mavericks have covered 5 straight. The Over is 6-1 across the past 7 battles in this series, although that lone Under was in the most recent meeting on March 13.

Mavericks at Warriors odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:02 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mavericks -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Warriors -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Against the spread: Mavericks +1.5 (-120) | Warriors -1.5 (+100)
Over/Under (O/U): 232.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

F Greg Brown III (personal) out
G Josh Green (ankle) out
C Dereck Lively II (leg) questionable

Warriors

F Jonathan Kuminga (knee) questionable
F Dario Saric (knee) out
G Klay Thompson (knee) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 118, Warriors 108

Moneyline

The MAVERICKS (-110) are a solid play on the road, as Dallas looks to cap off its road trip at a perfect 5-0 SU. The Mavs have actually won 5 in a row on the road, and 8 of the past 10 away from home, too.

The Warriors (-110) have been playing good ball lately, too, and wins in Miami and Orlando in the past week were impressive. But 2 of the 4 victories on the 5-game road trip came in Charlotte and San Antonio against bad basketball teams, so do the recent winning ways for the Warriors mean things are turning around? We’ll find out a lot on Tuesday. With Kuminga carrying a questionable tag, and Saric out, it could be a tough outing for the Dubs.

Against the spread

The MAVERICKS +1.5 (-120) are worth playing if you need a little insurance although the moneyline is a better value.

Dallas has covered the past 5 games, including road wins against Houston, Sacramento (x2) and Utah, and it cashed in Oklahoma City on March 14 as a 9.5-point underdog. The Mavs are 11-1 ATS in the past 12 games, and getting the job done against some of the top teams in the league lately.

Over/Under

UNDER 232.5 (-115) is worth a look. While the Over has cashed in 6 of the past 7 meetings in this series, we had a low-scoring game in Dallas in the most recent meeting 3 weeks ago.

It’s been all about the Under for the Mavs lately, going 8-2 across the past 10 outings, allowing 107 or fewer points in 7 straight, and 9 of the past 10 contests.

The Dubs have also been on an Under run recently, going 3-1 in the past 4 games, and 4-2 across the past 6 outings.

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Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks head to the Chase Center Thursday with their season on the brink to play the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET (TNT) and Golden State leads 3-1. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas staved off elimination by beating Golden State 119-109 in Tuesday’s Game 4. The Mavs outshot the Warriors from everywhere on the floor and Dallas All-Star Luka Doncic had game-highs in points (30), rebounds (14) and assists (9).

Golden State is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in this series with a plus-8.2 net rating and the total is 2-2 Over/Under (O/U).

Mavericks at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:27 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mavericks +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Warriors -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-105) | Warriors -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

None

Warriors

F Andre Iguodala (back) out
SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out
PF Otto Porter Jr. (foot) questionable

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Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 109, Mavericks 105

Money line

PASS because Golden State should close this series out at home, but the Warriors (-300) is too pricey for an outright wager.

The bottom line is what the Mavericks (+230) did to get to the Western Conference Finals isn’t working against Golden State. Dallas went small vs. its first 2 playoff opponents and exposed their opponent’s slow frontcourt defense.

When the Mavs go small in this series, the Warriors just crush them in the paint. If defenses are giving up paint points to Golden State then backcourts naturally sag off shooters, which is the worst thing you can do against Warriors guards Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.

That said, the Warriors (-300) isn’t a lock because Luka is good enough to steal one in this series in Golden State and Dallas’s defense is good enough to force the Warriors into an off-shooting night.

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Against the spread

LEAN MAVERICKS +6.5 (-105) because I liked it better at +7 and +7.5 and the winner has covered most games in these NBA playoffs.

But, there’s reverse line movement (RLM) in the betting market headed toward Dallas and elimination games generally play at a slower pace, which leads to reduced scoring margins.

According to Pregame.com, nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Warriors -6.5 (-120), but they’ve gone from a 7.5-point opening favorite down to the current number. This type of line movement is obviously suspicious because common sense suggests oddsmakers would move the price according to the betting splits.

Lastly, these teams are tied 2-2 in the “four factors” in this series, Dallas’s 3-point shooting can punish Golden State’s zone defense and the Mavs have 2 guards (Luka and SG Jalen Brunson) who can dribble penetrate.

It’s only a LEAN to the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-105) because we are getting to the party a little late on Dallas.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 215.5 (-110) because games tend to be lower scoring as a playoff series continues. Also, there’s RLM in the betting market for the total as well since Game 5 opened with a 216.5-point total and has been lowered despite most of the market backing the Over 215.5 (-110).

However, both teams will probably chuck 3-pointers and there’s enough firepower in both offenses to easily go Over the total.

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Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (27-20) drop by Chase Center Tuesday to play the Golden State Warriors (34-13) at 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas bounced back from a loss to the Phoenix Suns Thursday to crush the Memphis Grizzlies 104-91 as a 4-point home favorite Sunday. The Mavs are 5-1 straight-up (SU) over their last six games.

Golden State has won back-to-back games over the Houston Rockets Friday and the Utah Jazz Sunday. However, the Warriors are 4-4 SU over the last two weeks.

The Mavs upset the Warriors 99-82 as 4.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season Jan. 5 on the night of former Mavs great Dirk Nowitzki’s jersey retirement ceremony.

It was Dallas’s third straight victory over Golden State and the seventh in their last eight meetings. The Mavericks are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games versus the Warriors.

Mavericks at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mavericks +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Warriors -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +3.5 (-110) | Warriors -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 211.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

None.

Warriors

SG Klay Thompson (knee) questionable
PF Draymond Green (back) out
SF Andre Iguodala (hip) out
C James Wiseman (knee) out

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Mavericks at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 105, Warriors 101

Money line

SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+130) because Dallas plus the points and is the sharper play so we should be hitting that harder.

However, Mavs All-Star G Luka Doncic has played very well versus the Warriors, while Golden State’s G Steph Curry is playing against a sneaky good Mavericks defense and has been terrible this month.

Luka is averaging 28.4 points per game (PPG) on 63.7% true shooting (.485/.434/.763) with 7.7 rebounds, 7.7 assists and a plus-12 net rating in his 11 career games against the Warriors.

On the other hand, Curry is averaging 20.8 PPG on 50.0% true shooting (.359/.299/.885) and a minus-5 net rating in 11 games in Jan.

Dallas is also first in non-garbage time defensive rating this month, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Another reason I like the Mavericks in this spot is that they have been red-hot in Jan. Dallas is 10-2 SU, second in adjusted net rating and first in ATS margin at plus-5.6 in Jan.

On top of that, the Warriors have been underperforming expectations this month, especially considering Klay returned Jan. 9. Golden State is 7-6 SU, 13th in adjusted net rating and 24th in ATS margin at minus-3.0 in Jan.

Klay hasn’t really brought much to the table yet and the Warriors are missing two core pieces in Iguodala and Green.

Klay has a minus-0.9 adjusted on/off net rating in 126 minutes played but Iguodala has a plus-3.1 and Green has a plus-3.9 adjusted on/off net rating, per CTG.

The bottom line is the Warriors aren’t the Warriors currently and Dallas is clicking on all cylinders. Again, only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+130) with the plan of betting more on their spread.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +3.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of their money line.

Golden State is just 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine games, Dallas is 7-3 ATS on the road versus teams above-.500 and, again, has the best ATS margin in Jan.

For the record, the MAVERICKS +3.5 (-110) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 211.5 (-115) for a small wager, if at all, because the Warriors are 7-16-2 O/U at home with a minus-8.7 total margin and the Mavs are 9-13-1 O/U with a minus-5.3 total margin on the road.

That said, both teams obviously have a lot of firepower and the Over has cashed in 10 of the past 13 Mavericks-Warriors meetings.

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