The Dallas Mavericks (3-1) travels to the “Mile High City” to play the Denver Nuggets (2-2) at Ball Arena Friday. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas rallied back from a 20-point first-half deficit to beat the San Antonio Spurs Thursday 104-99 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. The Mavs are just 1-3 against the spread (ATS), and the Under has cashed in all four of their games.
Denver has lost two in a row, first to the Cleveland Cavaliers 99-87 Monday then to the Utah Jazz 122-110 as 7-point underdogs the next night. The major story from Tuesday’s Nuggets-Jazz game was reigning MVP Nikola Jokic exiting the game early after twisting his knee.
The Mavs won and covered two of their three regular-season meetings with the Nuggets last year.
Dallas’ Luka Doncic averaged 31.3 points per game (PPG), 8.3 rebounds (RPG) and 13.7 assists per game (APG) with a plus-14 net rating in three games vs. Denver last season. Jokic put up 28.0 PPG, 10.0 RPG and 6.3 APG vs. Dallas last season but had a minus-9 net rating.
Mavericks at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Nuggets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +1.5 (-107) | Nuggets -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Mavericks at Nuggets key injuries
Mavericks
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (back) questionable
Nuggets
- C Nikola Jokic (knee) questionable
Mavericks at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 108, Nuggets 103
Money line
BET the MAVERICKS (+102) for 1 unit because there’s a good chance the Nuggets won’t rush Jokic back for this game and Dallas won last year’s season series vs. Denver with Jokic in the lineup for all three meetings.
Furthermore, the presumed “sharp” side of the market is betting the Mavs early on while the public is split down the middle on this game, according to Pregame.com. Also, Dallas has a slightly higher net rating and rebounding rate and a much better assist-to-turnover rate than Denver.
To be fair, this is a coin-flip game, and it’s safer to wait until the final injury report before making a wager. But, I’m gambling on the MAVERICKS (+102) vs. the Nuggets without their two best players (perhaps).
Against the spread
PASS since the Mavericks +1.5 (-107) doesn’t offer much insurance for our Dallas money line wager. For what it’s worth, the Mavs have the second-best cover rate in road games since the beginning of 2019 at 44-28-2 ATS. Also, the Nuggets are just 30-33-2 ATS as a home favorite over that span.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 215.5 (-112) for a half unit only because we are getting to the party late since the Mavericks-Nuggets opened with a 218.5-point total, but the market has steamed it down to the current number.
However, there’s a ton of basketball logic to backing the Under in this game. For instance, both teams are in the top-11 of defensive efficiency, play at a below-average pace and are bottom-5 in offensive FT/FGA rate. On top of that, these teams have a combined 1-7 O/U record this season.
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