Dallas Mavericks betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets – Page 11

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks open their 2022-2023 NBA season on the road against the Phoenix Suns Wednesday. Tip-off from Footprint Center is 10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Mavericks vs. Suns nickname odds, and our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The season opens for the Suns where their playoff run ended last season: at home against the Mavericks. Dallas eliminated Phoenix from the playoffs in the Western Conference Semifinals with a 123-90 Game 7 win. Dallas was eliminated in the Western Conference Finals.

The Mavericks lost G Jalen Brunson in the offseason but are still led by G Luka Doncic. They return G Spencer Dinwiddie and added C Christian Wood from the Houston Rockets and former Suns C JaVale McGee in the offseason.

The Suns return mostly the same team as last season. F Jae Crowder is still on the roster but is not with the team as they try to work out a trade; F Cam Johnson is expected to be a starter in his absence. C Deandre Ayton returns after the Suns matched an offer sheet by the Indianapolis Pacers.

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Mavericks at Suns odds

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mavericks +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Suns -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +4.5 (-108) | Suns -4.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mavericks at Suns key injuries

Mavericks

F Davis Bertans (knee) out
F Maxi Kleber (illness) questionable
G Frank Ntilikina (ankle) out

Suns

F Jae Crowder (not with team) out
G Landry Shamet (hip) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 109, Mavericks 103

Moneyline

The Suns swept the season series 3-0 last year and had won 9 straight games against the Mavericks before their playoffs series. Phoenix took a 2-0 and a 3-2 lead before Dallas won Games 6 and 7 to win the series.

Doncic averaged 32.6 ppg in that series. In 12 career regular-season games against the Suns, he has averaged 25.8 ppg.

The Suns went 32-9 at home in the regular season last year. The Mavs went 23-18 on the road.

It is the first game of the season and the Suns will want to avenge the playoff loss.

Take the SUNS (-190).

Against the spread

Phoenix was 24-24 ATS last season at home, including postseason play. Dallas was 28-23 ATS last season on the road.

While the Mavs won 4 of the last 5 games of the playoff series, the Suns had won 11 straight prior, and 8 of those 11 games were won by at least 5 points.

Take the SUNS -4.5 (-112).

Over/Under

Including the postseason, the Mavericks had the lowest Over percentage in the league last season at 39.8%. The Suns were 48-47 O/U (50.5%).

The final 5 games of their playoff series against each other all had fewer than 216 points.

None of their 3 regular-season matchups had 217 or more points.

The highest regular-season total between the two teams in the last two seasons has been 217.

Take UNDER 216.5 (-110).

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Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks head to the Chase Center Thursday with their season on the brink to play the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET (TNT) and Golden State leads 3-1. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas staved off elimination by beating Golden State 119-109 in Tuesday’s Game 4. The Mavs outshot the Warriors from everywhere on the floor and Dallas All-Star Luka Doncic had game-highs in points (30), rebounds (14) and assists (9).

Golden State is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in this series with a plus-8.2 net rating and the total is 2-2 Over/Under (O/U).

Mavericks at Warriors odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:27 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mavericks +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Warriors -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-105) | Warriors -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Warriors key injuries

Mavericks

None

Warriors

F Andre Iguodala (back) out
SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out
PF Otto Porter Jr. (foot) questionable

[tipico]

Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 109, Mavericks 105

Money line

PASS because Golden State should close this series out at home, but the Warriors (-300) is too pricey for an outright wager.

The bottom line is what the Mavericks (+230) did to get to the Western Conference Finals isn’t working against Golden State. Dallas went small vs. its first 2 playoff opponents and exposed their opponent’s slow frontcourt defense.

When the Mavs go small in this series, the Warriors just crush them in the paint. If defenses are giving up paint points to Golden State then backcourts naturally sag off shooters, which is the worst thing you can do against Warriors guards Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.

That said, the Warriors (-300) isn’t a lock because Luka is good enough to steal one in this series in Golden State and Dallas’s defense is good enough to force the Warriors into an off-shooting night.

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Against the spread

LEAN MAVERICKS +6.5 (-105) because I liked it better at +7 and +7.5 and the winner has covered most games in these NBA playoffs.

But, there’s reverse line movement (RLM) in the betting market headed toward Dallas and elimination games generally play at a slower pace, which leads to reduced scoring margins.

According to Pregame.com, nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Warriors -6.5 (-120), but they’ve gone from a 7.5-point opening favorite down to the current number. This type of line movement is obviously suspicious because common sense suggests oddsmakers would move the price according to the betting splits.

Lastly, these teams are tied 2-2 in the “four factors” in this series, Dallas’s 3-point shooting can punish Golden State’s zone defense and the Mavs have 2 guards (Luka and SG Jalen Brunson) who can dribble penetrate.

It’s only a LEAN to the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-105) because we are getting to the party a little late on Dallas.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN to the UNDER 215.5 (-110) because games tend to be lower scoring as a playoff series continues. Also, there’s RLM in the betting market for the total as well since Game 5 opened with a 216.5-point total and has been lowered despite most of the market backing the Over 215.5 (-110).

However, both teams will probably chuck 3-pointers and there’s enough firepower in both offenses to easily go Over the total.

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Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks Game 4 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors take a 3-0 series in lead into Game 4 against the Dallas Mavericks Tuesday as they attempt to close out the series sweep in the Western Conference Finals on the road. Tip-off from American Airlines Arena is set for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Mavericks Game 4 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Warriors blew out the Mavs 112-87 in Game 1. Dallas bounced back with a 72-point first half in Game 2 but Golden State rallied from a 19-point deficit to win 126-117 and secure both home games.

Mavericks G Luka Doncic scored 40 points at home in Game 3 — his second straight 40-point game — but the Warriors, led by G Stephen Curry‘s 31 points and F Andrew Wiggins‘ playoff career-high 27 points, led after every quarter and moved within a game of making it to the NBA Finals with a 109-100 win.

Warriors at Mavericks odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:27 a.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Mavericks -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +1.5 (-115) | Mavericks -1.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Warriors at Mavericks key injuries

Warriors

F Andre Iguodala (back) out
G Gary Payton II (elbow) out
F Otto Porter Jr. (foot) questionable
C James Wiseman (knee) out

Mavericks

G Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) out

[tipico]

Warriors at Mavericks picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 110, Mavericks 102

Money line

When the Mavericks couldn’t muster a lead at the end of any quarter in a game in which they needed a win the most to avoid a 3-0 deficit. No team in NBA history has ever overcome trailing 3-0 in a series.

The Warriors have only 3 total losses since the start of April, a span of 19 games. They are 3-3 on the road in the playoffs.

Doncic has been spectacular the last 2 games but hasn’t gotten any help.

The Warriors just have too much firepower and too convincing a lead in the series.

Take the WARRIORS (-103) to close out the series.

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Against the spread

The Mavericks are 3-1 ATS this postseason when favored. This will be just the second time this postseason the Warriors have been the underdog. They were the underdog in Game 3 when they picked up a 109-100 win, and they were 11-8 ATS in the regular season as underdogs.

The Mavericks are 32-19-2 ATS this season as the favorite.

Take the WARRIORS +1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

Games 1 and 3 both stayed Under the projected total and Game 2 his the Over. The Mavericks have been held to 100 or fewer points twice in this series.

The Warriors have held their opponent to 100 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4 games.

Take UNDER 215.5 (-110).

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Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks Game 3 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors take a 2-0 series lead on the road Sunday to face the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. Tip-off from American Airlines Center is 9 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Warriors won Game 1 of the series 112-87 in dominating fashion, outscoring the Mavericks by 10 points in the 1st quarter and never looking back. They held Mavericks G Luka Doncic to only 20 points on 6-for-18 shooting, including 3-for-10 from 3-point range. G Stephen Curry had 21 points and 12 rebounds in the win.

The Warriors picked up a 126-117 victory in Game 2 despite that the Mavericks scored 72 1st-half points and Doncic scored 42 for the game, including 18 in the 1st quarter. However, the Warriors, after trailing by as much as 19, held Dallas to 13 3rd-quarter points and then scored 43 in the final frame to pick up the victory and move within 2 wins of a trip to the NBA Finals.

Warriors at Mavericks odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:05 a.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Mavericks -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +2.5 (-105) | Mavericks -2.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 218.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Warriors at Mavericks key injuries

Warriors

F Andre Iguodala (back) out
G Gary Payton II (elbow) out
F Andrew Wiggins (ankle) questionable
C James Wiseman (knee) out

Mavericks

G Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) out

[tipico]

Warriors at Mavericks picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 118, Mavericks 114

Money line

The Mavericks fell behind 2-0 in their series against the Phoenix Suns and bounced back with a 103-94 home win in Game 3. Their losses to the Suns in the first 2 games of that series were by 7 and 20 points. These losses to the Warriors were by 25 and 9 points.

However, the Warriors have only 3 total losses since the start of April, a span of 18 games. They are 2-3 on the road in the playoffs.

After rallying back in the second half of Game 2, it looks like the Warriors are ready to go in for the kill.

Take the WARRIORS (+122).

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Against the spread

The Mavericks are 3-0 ATS this postseason when favored. This will be the first time this postseason the Warriors have been the underdog. They were 11-8 ATS in the regular season as underdogs.

The Mavericks are 32-18-2 ATS this season as the favorite.

I’m taking the WARRIORS +2.5 (-105).

Over/Under

The first game of the series had only 199 points and the second finished with 243. Two of their 4 regular-season matchups had higher totals than tonight’s projected total and 2 had lower totals.

The Warriors have scored at least 110 points in 3 straight games and have done so 9 times in the postseason.

As this game is Dallas’ last real chance to get back into the series, I expect both teams to push the ball and score points.

Take OVER 218.5 (-112).

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Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 7 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 7 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (3-3) host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (3-3) Sunday for Game 7 of their Western Conference playoff series at the Footprint Center with tip-off scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas tied this series by crushing Phoenix 113-86 in Game 6 at home Thursday. The Mavs outperformed the Suns in three of the “four factors” and outscored Phoenix in all 4 quarters.

Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic had game-highs in points (33) and assists (8) and added 11 rebounds. Phoenix’s ball security has become an issue in this series and the Suns had an 18-to-22 assist-to-turnover ratio in Game 6.

These teams have split the “four factors” for this series and the home team has won and covered each game and the total is 2-4 Over/Under (O/U).

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:36 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mavericks +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Suns -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-110) | Suns -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 204.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

Mavericks

None

Suns

None

[tipico]

Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 103, Suns 100

Money line

SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+225), if at all, because their spread is the much sharper play but Dallas’s ML has some value here. Luka is by far the best player in this series and his playoff career numbers are insane through his first 3 postseasons.

Doncic’s dribble penetration has collapsed Phoenix’s perimeter defense and has led to wide-open 3-pointers for the Mavs in this series, which explains Dallas’s absurd 49.9% 3-point attempt rate in the playoffs.

This is concerning because the Suns are neither “making Luka beat them” nor shutting down Luka. If Doncic is “getting his” and finding open teammates on 3-pointers then Dallas could end Phoenix’s season earlier than expected.

Also, the Mavs figure to control the pace of Game 7 since Dallas has the second-best offensive turnover rate in the postseason. Possessions will be even more important in his win-or-go-home Game 7 and the Suns have been careless with the rock in this series.

Again, I’d only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+225) with the plan of hitting Dallas’s spread harder.

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Against the spread

Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-110) instead of or heavier than their ML because these teams are neck-and-neck in this series with the Suns -6.5 (-110) only scoring 1.9 more points per 100 possessions and 1.8 more points per game.

The spread hasn’t been a factor through the first 6 games of this series but, from an efficiency standpoint, there’s not a lot separating these teams and Game 7 should come down to the wire.

Lastly, the “backdoor cover” is wide-open in this game because Dallas obviously will be fighting until the final whistle and a late-game 3-point barrage could cash a MAVERICKS +6.5 (-110) ticket.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 204.5 (-110) because Game 7s typically play Under the total and the Mavericks-Suns series is playing at a slower pace than the NBA postseason average. In fact, Dallas played at the slowest pace during the regular season.

However, the oddsmakers already assumed the Mavericks-Suns Game 7 would be more of a rock-fight because the total is 11 points lower than the Game 5 total set at 215.5.

There isn’t a lot of value in this number, but the UNDER 204.5 (-110) is the only side of the total I’d play.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 6 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (2-3) try to keep their season alive when they host the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (3-2) for Game 6 of their Western Conference semifinals playoff series Thursday. Tip-off at the American Airlines Center is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix took control of this series by blowing out Dallas 110-80 in Game 5 Tuesday. The Suns significantly outperformed the Mavs in 3 of the “four factors” in Game 5. Phoenix All-Star SG Devin Booker scored 28 points on 55.0% shooting and PG Chris Paul added 10 assists.

Dallas All-Star wing Luka Doncic has been the best player in this series, averaging a series-high in points (32.0), rebounds (9.6) and assists (7.4).

The home team has won and covered the first 5 games and the total is 2-3 Over/Under (O/U) in the series.

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:34 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Suns -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mavericks +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-108) | Mavericks +2.5 (-112)
Over/Under: 211.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

Suns

None

Mavericks

None

[tipico]

Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 106, Suns 102

Money line

PASS even though I’m on Dallas’s spread because the Suns (-135) are the best “clutch” team in the NBA so I could see Phoenix stealing this one late from the Mavericks (+110).

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Against the spread

BET the MAVERICKS +2.5 (-112) because they are 4-1 ATS at home in these playoffs and Phoenix’s offense has no-showed in both of their road games in this series.

We can pretty much pencil in Luka’s production and Dallas’s role players have stepped up at home. The Mavs have an absurd 49.9% 3-point attempt rate in the postseason.

Dallas was 6th in defensive rating during the regular season so some of Phoenix’s offensive woes in Games 3 and 4 were caused by the Dallas defense, which should be locked in with its backs against the wall.

Lastly, we’ve seen officiating swing the tide in these playoff games and all 3 of the Mavs’ primary ball handlers (Luka, PG Jalen Brunson and SG Spencer Dinwiddie) attack the paint and get to the foul line.

BET the MAVERICKS +2.5 (-112).

Over/Under

BET a half-unit on the UNDER 211.5 (-115) because there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market for the total. According to Pregame.com, roughly two-thirds of the cash is on the Under whereas more than 70% of the bets placed are on the Over.

Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, the money column of the betting splits is the sharper side. Also, the oddsmakers are reacting to the money more than the action because the total has been lowered from the 212-point opener.

Furthermore, all 4 referees assigned to Game 6 have officiated more Unders and the officiating crew has a combined 104-140 O/U record this season. Both teams play at a snail’s pace and have elite defenses so if the refs swallow their whistles then this game might not hit 200 points.

However, the Mavs’ guards attacking the basket, Dallas’s 3-point volume and Phoenix’s offensive versatility make the UNDER 211.5 (-115) a tad risky.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-2) host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (2-2) Tuesday for Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinals playoff series. Tip-off at Footprint Center is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas evened the series with a 111-101 Game 4 victory Sunday despite Phoenix shooting better from the field, grabbing more rebounds and throwing more assists. Three-point shooting was the difference in Game 4 as the Mavs outshot the Suns 45.5-36.0% from behind the arc and sunk 11 more threes.

Phoenix All-Star PG Chris Paul struggled while the series was in Dallas, averaging just 8.5 points with 5.5 assists and 4.5 turnovers and he fouled out of Game 4. Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic has been the best player in this series, scoring 33.0 points with 9.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists.

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mavericks +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Suns -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-112) | Suns -6.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

Mavericks

None

Suns

None

[tipico]

Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 110, Mavericks 106

Money line

PASS with a lean to the Mavericks (+220) because I like Dallas’s spread and typically will sprinkle on an underdog’s ML when betting them to cover.

However, the Suns averaged 125.0 points in the first 2 games of this series while in Phoenix and they are outperforming the Mavs in three of the “four factors” for the series.

Phoenix’s adjusted series price is -250 even though this series is tied 2-2 and the Suns’ most likely path to a series victory is to win both of their remaining home games (Game 5 and 7).

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Against the spread

BET the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-112) because they have the best player in this series and Dallas is shooting 40.5% on 3-pointers and is making 16.5 threes per game through the first 4 games. I don’t trust the Suns to win by margin with the Mavs shooting this well from behind the arc.

The Mavs also have committed 18 fewer turnovers in the series and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio than the Suns. By winning the turnover battle, Luka and Dallas can control the tempo, which is the best way to beat a CP3-led team.

More than 80% of the cash is on Phoenix, according to Tipico Sportsbook, and it’s generally profitable to fade such lopsided betting markets in major sporting events.

BET the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-112).

Over/Under

PASS because both teams like to play half-court basketball but each team is shooting better than 40.0% from 3-point land and the combined offensive efficiency in this series is through the roof.

Plus this Mavericks-Suns series is playing nearly 3 possessions per 48 minutes slower (92.9) than the playoff average (95.8).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (1-2) host the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-1) for Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinals playoff series. Sunday’s tip-off at the American Airlines Center is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas got back into this series with a 103-94 win Friday in Game 3, despite being outperformed in 3 of the “4 factors”. Phoenix continuously shot itself in the foot and Dallas attempted 14 more field goals in the game.

The Suns had a 17.1% offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and allowed 22 second-chance points in Game 3, well off their regular-season marks of 12.9% offensive TOV% (4th) and 14.8 second-chance points per game allowed (4th).

Dallas combo guard Jalen Brunson had a bounce-back effort at home, scoring 28 points on 47.6% shooting (7 of 7 from the foul line) with 4 rebounds, 5 assists and no turnovers.

The Mavs’ Game 3 victory was their first vs. Phoenix since the Suns acquired future Hall-of-Fame PG Chris Paul prior to last season. Dallas is 1-8 straight up (SU) and 3-5 against the spread (ATS) vs. Phoenix in the last 2 seasons.

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Suns -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Mavericks +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-110) | Mavericks +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 109, Mavericks 103

Money line

BET the SUNS (-140) because they won’t repeat the mistakes that cost them Game 3. Phoenix outshot Dallas from everywhere on the floor and had a plus-9 rebound differential, but just kept giving the ball back to the Mavs.

Also, the Suns perform much better than the Mavs in close games. Phoenix is 6-2 SU in games decided by 3 points or less and 5-1 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point favorites. Dallas is 7-5 SU in games within a 3-point margin and 7-5 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs.

Phoenix had the best regular-season clutch record (33-9 SU) and net rating (plus-33.9) whereas Dallas was 25th in clutch net rating this season (minus-9.1). “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of 5 minutes to play.

Suns coach Monty Williams should make the necessary adjustments and Phoenix’s All-Star backcourt of CP3 and Devin Booker will perform better Sunday after no-shows Friday.

BET the SUNS (-140).

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Against the spread

Slight LEAN to the SUNS -2.5 (-110) because they should win Game 4 by margin, but I’m confident enough to spend a little extra for Phoenix’s ML.

Also, we’d be getting the worst of the number since the Suns opened as 1.5-point favorites but market steam has made Phoenix more expensive.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 214.5 (-110) since there’s a line freeze in the betting market for the total, Dallas is 3-9 O/U as home underdogs with a minus-7.1 total margin and played at the slowest pace during the regular season.

According to VegasInsider.com, nearly three-fourths of the cash wagered is on the Over, but the total hasn’t budged off the opener and has even been lowered at some sportsbooks.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 3 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-0) head to the American Airlines Center for Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinals series against the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (0-2). Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix rallied from a first-half deficit to crush Dallas 129-109 in Game 2 even though the Mavs won 3 of the “4 factors” because the Suns shot an insane 73.0% effective field goal rate (eFG%), which breaks down to 64.5% from the field and 52.0% from 3-point land.

Suns All-Star guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker are scorching the Mavs. They are scoring a combined 50 points per game (PPG) on 62.1% shooting (45.0% from behind the arc) with 24 rebounds and 23 assists in the series.

Dallas All-Star Luka Doncic has pulled his weight in this series, averaging 40.0 PPG on 66.3% true shooting (.538/.429/.789) with 8.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists. But Mavs’ first-round breakout star, PG Jalen Brunson, is adding just 11.0 PPG on 32.1% shooting (25.0% from 3) with a minus-50 net rating.

The Suns are 8-0 overall and 6-2 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Mavs since acquiring CP3 and the total is 4-4 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA conference semifinals Game 3 betting previews

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:58 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Suns -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mavericks -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Against the spread: Suns -1.5 (-102) | Mavericks +1.5 (-122)
Over/Under: 219.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 116, Mavericks 110

Money line

BET the SUNS (-115) because their backcourt is lighting up the Mavericks’ (-105) backcourt and because they are hurting Luka on defense in the second halves of these games.

Phoenix being able to exploit Luka puts Dallas in a tough spot because it needs Doncic on the floor for his offensive brilliance but has nowhere to hide him on defense.

On top of that, the Suns’ frontcourt is far superior to the Mavs’, which is the main reason Phoenix has nearly a 10% higher rebounding rate than Dallas in this series.

We saw the New Orleans Pelicans make up for an outmatched offense vs. Phoenix in the first round by crashing the offensive glass. But the Mavs were just 24th in offensive rebounding rate during the regular season.

Obviously, Dallas’s 3-point shooters can get hot Friday, or Luka and the Mavs can get some home-cooking from the referees in Game 3.

But the Suns (-115) have an implied win probability of 53.5% and Phoenix has beaten Dallas in 100% of their meetings since the Suns picked up CP3.

BET 1 UNIT on the SUNS (-115).

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Against the spread

PASS because Phoenix’s ML is only 13 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Suns -1.5 (-102) so there’s no reason to sweat a Phoenix cover here. I’d absolutely take the points instead of the ML if the Suns became an underdog but I’ll stick with Phoenix winning outright.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 219.5 (-107) because Dallas has no answer for a Phoenix offense that is scoring 125.0 PPG in this series and because the Suns have 5 players who are shooting at least 40.0% from behind the arc.

Also, the Mavs role players should perform a little better now that the series is in Dallas and if the Mavs get down early in Game 3, they might speed up the pace in desperation mode.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 2 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (1-0) host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (0-1) Wednesday for Game 2 in the Western Conference semifinals at Footprint Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix held off a late Dallas surge to win 121-114 in Game 1 and cover as 6-point home favorites. The Suns bodied the Mavs on the glass, grabbing 15 more rebounds (51-36), and had 11 more assists (27-16).

Mavs All-Star Luka Doncic dropped 45 points on 50.0% shooting (15 of 30) with 12 rebounds and 8 assists. Suns All-Star SG Devin Booker nearly notched a triple-double with a 23-9-8 stats line while Suns big Deandre Ayton had a team-high 25 points on 60.0% shooting (12 of 20).

The Suns have beaten the Mavs in 7 straight meetings dating back to the beginning of last season, including the playoffs, and are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games.

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:41 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mavericks +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Suns -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-120) | Suns -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 110, Mavericks 101

Money line

PASS although I like the Suns (-260) to take a 2-0 series lead over the Mavericks (+205) before heading to Dallas.

On paper, Game 1 looked a lot closer than it was but almost all of the fourth quarter was garbage time and the Suns completely took their foot off the gas.

More importantly, Phoenix’s pick-and-roll (PnR) action is a nightmare matchup for Dallas. The Suns have the highest PnR efficiency through ball handlers in these playoffs while the Mavs have the fourth-worst PnR defensive efficiency against ball handlers.

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Against the spread

BET the SUNS -6.5 (-105) because they created so many easy looks in Game 1 and their defense is way too good for Dallas’s predictable offense.

The Suns would’ve beaten the Mavericks +6.5 (-120) by at least 15 points if it weren’t for Dallas PF Maxi Kleber coming off the bench to sink 5 of 8 on 3-point attempts.

Phoenix’s defensive strategy in Game 1 was to allow Luka to play iso-ball while limiting Dallas role players. Luka had a 42.8% usage rate but a minus-6 net rating and Mavs PG Jalen Brunson struggled versus Phoenix’s elite perimeter defense.

Also, Dallas’s defense has no answer for Suns big Deandre Ayton on defense and cannot play Ayton off the floor as the Mavs did with Utah Jazz C Rudy Gobert in the first round. Phoenix’s perimeter defense isn’t Swiss cheese so Dallas won’t get the same quality of shots it did versus the Jazz last round.

TAKE THE SUNS -6.5 (-105).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 215.5 (-110) because both teams have a below-average pace and free-throw attempt rate in these playoffs and neither turn the ball over much so there shouldn’t be easy points off of turnovers.

On top of that, there’s reverse line movement headed South of the total since the Mavericks-Suns opened with a 216.5-point total and has been lowered even though nearly 90% of the money is on the Over, per Tipico Sportsbook.

Lastly, if the Suns run away with Game 2 as they did with the series opener, which I think they will, then Phoenix will kill the tempo in the fourth quarter and there will be fewer possessions.

For the record, the UNDER 215.5 (-110) is my favorite wager in Game 2 because it feels like the least popular bet in this game and, typically, the road less traveled is where you find profit betting sports.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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