Tag: dallas cowboys vs. miami dolphins

TV coverage maps, stream Cowboys-Dolphins in Week 16, plus the top prop bets

Another broadcast A-team awaits the Cowboys as Guns, Jr. has the big whistle and the prop bet action is intriguing. Everything you need to enjoy Cowboys-Dolphins. | From @KDDrummondNFL

It’s been a long and trying week for Cowboys Nation, as is usually the case after an unacceptable performance. The football world in general has dismissed the Cowboys’ five-game winning streak as inconsequential, crediting their blowout win over then 10-2 Philadelphia as nothing more than divisional warfare, and their win over the scrappy Seahawks as nothing special. The blowout loss to Buffalo on national television put Dallas back in the category of teams that cannot win games against good competition, just now with the caveat of when on the road.

Sunday afternoon brings a chance at redemption, in some ways. The Miami Dolphins also have a reputation of not being able to beat good competition, entering the game 0-3 against teams currently at or above .500. Unlike the Cowboys there’s no caveat where teams they’ve defeated had a positive record at the time, the Dolphins haven’t faced anyone sitting above that line and emerged victorious.

Mike McDaniels’ team is certainly capable, of course. With one of the league’s great skill position quartets of Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane centered around speed, speed and more speed, they took back over the points-scored pinnacle from Dallas in Week 15. The defense under Vic Fangio is nothing to sneeze at now that Jalen Ramsey has returned.

It will be a formidable matchup when each team has possession, so there aren’t many downs the viewing public should miss. Want to stay in lock step with all of the action? Here’s how to watch, stream, gamble and enjoy the battle of two teams with Super Bowl dreams.

Cowboys adaptability on defense will be put to the test against Dolphins

If the Cowboys play their usual brand of coverage in Week 16, they’ll be playing into the Dolphins’ strengths, says @ReidDHanson.

To adapt or not adapt, that is the question. This Shakespearean-like conundrum torments all NFL coaches but in Week 16 of the NFL season, it’s likely especially applicable to the Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.

On one hand, Quinn has the league’s No. 5 defense, by EPA standards. With depth in the secondary and strength in man coverage, he has a defense built to play nickel personnel, heavy man and single high safety coverage. Based on their ranking, it’s served him well.

On the other hand, Quinn is staring down an elite offense in Miami. It’s an offense that’s built to destroy man coverage, spread out defenses, and catch would-be tacklers out of position. It’s an offense that can win a number of ways which could mean following their season-long trends or following Buffalo’s blueprint that recently embarrassed the Cowboys.

 

 

The Cowboys adaptability on defense will be put to the test against Dolphins

If the Cowboys play their usual brand of coverage in Week 16, they’ll be playing into the Dolphins’ strengths

To adapt or not adapt, that is the question. This Shakespearean-like conundrum torments all NFL coaches, but in Week 16 of the NFL season, it’s likely especially applicable to the Cowboys defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn.

On one hand, Quinn has the league’s No. 5 defense (by EPA standards). With depth in the secondary and strength in man coverage, he has a defense built to play nickel personnel, heavy man and single high safety coverage. Based on their ranking, it has served him well.

On the other hand, Quinn is staring down an elite offense in Miami. It’s an offense that’s built to destroy man coverage, spread out defenses, and catch would-be tacklers out of position. It’s an offense that can win a number of ways, which could mean following their season-long trends or following Buffalo’s blueprint that recently embarrassed the Cowboys.

Quinn has a decision to make: Does he A) lean into his team’s strengths and do the same thing he’s done all season with the Cowboys defense? Or does he B) alter his traditional approach and play to the Dolphin’s weaknesses, besting them through strategy?

The answer would be easy if the strengths of the Cowboys defense matched the weaknesses of Miami, but unfortunately, it’s not that simple. Dallas’ favorite coverage this season, by a fairly significant margin, is Cover 1. In this coverage they’ve held opposing passing attacks to -0.21 EPA/play and -10.8% CPOE. Of their top coverages, it’s yielded the lowest yards/attempt, lowest YAC/reception, and the most interceptions.

Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa loves Cover 1 as well. Against it, he’s posted a +0.50 EPA/play and a +4.3% CPOE to go with a gaudy 8/1 touchdown to interception ratio in 2023. The Cowboys love closing off the middle of the field with a safety and playing man coverage on the boundary and Tagovailoa loves playing against it. In the infamous words of my plumber, “something’s gotta give.”

If Quinn decides to scheme to the Dolphin’s weaknesses he can employ Cover 4 or quarters defense. Tagovailoa has been producing positive EPA against all major coverages this season, but he’s generally been at his least effective against quarters. His EPA/play of +0.20 is good and his 77.2% completion percentage is elite, but his damage is far less against this than it is against the other coverages.

Cover 4 is the Cowboys’ fourth most used coverage in 2023. They are holding opponents to -0.05 EPA/play and -11.2% CPOE. They are giving up some deep passes but holding opponents to a 53.3% completion percentage. While the performance between the two teams is significantly different in Cover 4, it’s not as wide of a chasm as it is against Cover 1.

With Tyreek Hill set to play on Sunday, the Cowboys can ill afford to play into the Dolphin’s hands in coverage. Hill is a league leader against man coverage is automatic against press. Cover 1 has extra risk when Hill is on the field. Then again, Cover 4 opens up opportunities underneath and in the running game. The Cowboys can’t afford to gift easy yards again this week either.

The solution is likely a mix of coverages. Coverages that are well-disguised and not according to the typical script. Quinn has been predictable in his coverage in the past and will have to actively work to avoid such transparency in a matchup such as this.

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Here’s how the Cowboys can avoid their first losing streak since 2021

The Cowboys have some things to fix if they want to control the game against the Miami Dolphins in Week 16. | From @cdpiglet

The Cowboys were blown out by the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, snapping their five-game winning streak. Dallas was on a roll, winning seven of eight games since the Week 5 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, a game that was very similar to the Buffalo one. The defense couldn’t stop the opposing offense, and Dak Prescott and the offense couldn’t move the ball.

The Dolphins don’t have the offensive line or defense to pull off the same strategies as the 49ers and the Bills on paper, but the game plan of running the ball, limiting possessions, and pressuring Prescott with a four-man rush isn’t impossible. The Cowboys could easily be a part of another road loss to a top team.

If Dallas is going to avoid that outcome, it won’t be as simple as protecting the QB and stopping the run. They must commit to playing a certain way to help lead to that outcome. If the Dolphins are allowed the chance, they will hurt the Cowboys with their second-ranked rushing attack and a defense with plenty of good playmakers. Here are some things Dallas must accomplish to upset the Dolphins in Miami.

Cowboys 55-man roster for Week 16: Tyron Smith out, but no OL elevations vs Dolphins

The Cowboys are without their starting left tackle, but aren’t making any roster moves to account for it. Here’s what they did and didn’t do ahead of the clash with the water mammals. | From @KDDrummondNFL

The Dallas Cowboys have ruled left tackle Tyron Smith out for their Week16 game against the Miami Dolphins. The future Hall of Famer has been outstanding all season, but sometime during the loss to Buffalo last week, he tweaked his back. Unable to practice all week he was originally given a doubtful designation, but on Saturday he was ruled out.

He will not fly to Florida with the club. Chuma Edoga will replace him in the starting lineup. Dallas did not make any roster moves related to Smith, though, as second-year tackle Matt Waletzko was not activated from IR despite practicing for the last couple of weeks. The team did elevate two practice squad players, however.

Both DT Carl Davis and RB Malik Davis are being brought up to make it a 55-man roster. This is the running back’s final elevation for the season. Carl Davis is moving up in response to Johnathan Hankins’ leg injury, as the big nose tackle will miss his second-straight week.

In Week 15, Carl Davis saw 14 snaps on defense. Malik Davis saw 16 special teams snaps, but none on offense.

Here’s a look at the full roster, before Dallas announces their inactives list ahead of Sunday’s kickoff.

 

Quarterbacks (3)
Running Backs (4)
Wideouts (6)
Tight Ends (4)
Offensive Tackles (3)
Offensive Guards (4)
Centers (2)

Defensive Ends (4)
Defensive Tackles (5)
Linebacker (4)
Cornerbacks (6)
Safeties (6)

Special Teams (3)

Cowboys advance scouting the Dolphins’ personnel, tendencies, and strategy

Looking at what personnel groupings, tendencies and coverages the Cowboys can expect from the Dolphins in Week 16. | From @ReidDHanson

It’s not often the Cowboys have a matchup against the Miami Dolphins. The teams last met in 2019 where Preston Williams led Miami in receiving yards, Kenyon Drake led them in rushing, and Josh Rosen was their top signal caller. Dallas beat those Dolphins of yesteryear 31-6. Much has changed in Miami and it’s safe to say the 2023 version is nothing like those Dolphins of old.

The 2023 Dolphins enter Week 16’s showdown with a 10-4 record, fighting for playoff seeding and desperate to overtake Baltimore for the top spot and the obligatory bye week that accompanies it.

The Cowboys are in a similar situation. They are duking it out with the Eagles in the NFC East and realistically have their sights on the No. 2 seed. While the upcoming NFC games hold more value, every win matters and Dallas has something to prove after their pre-holiday cluster fudge last week in Buffalo.

But with no recent matchups to pull from, what is really known about this Dolphins squad from Miami? What are their strengths and weakness, which personnel groups do they prefer, and what might the Cowboys do to get the better of them?

After lackluster showing and amid injury concerns, here’s how Cowboys OL can bounce back

The Cowboys offensive line struggled last week in Buffalo here’s what they need to bounce back in Week 16 against the Dolphins, says @ReidDHanson.

They say games are won in the trenches and in many ways, that’s pretty spot on. Dominant offensive lines have a way of making things easy on the skill players. And dominant defensive lines have a way of erasing even the best QBs and RBs.

As the Cowboys offensive line gears up for their next big opponent, the pressure is on to get back on track and reclaim some of their midseason dominance.

The group is coming off what many consider one of their worst performances of the year. Aside from Tyron Smith at LT, every player seemed to struggle in some way. Terence Steele, Tyler Smith, Tyler Biadasz and even Zack Martin (before his injury sidelined him) struggled. They only faced seven blitzes on passing attempts, but pressure still came.

The offensive line saw gains in the running game but some of that yardage was essentially gifted. The Bills rarely crowded the line and decided they’d rather give up some yards on the ground, as long as it led to success stopping Dallas through the air. The plan worked out.

The crew faded down the stretch last season as well, and never seemed to recover. If one thing can help them through the next few weeks and into the postseason, it’s a rekindled offensive line.

With Tyron Smith’s and Martin’s status in question for Sunday, they may be at less than full strength. T.J. Bass could be called upon to man the RG position on Christmas Eve in Miami, meaning Steele and Biadasz will have to pick up the slack. But it’s not all on the linemen.

The playcaller also has a part in the offensive line’s redemption. Well-designed plays and an effective quick-game strategy will keep the pressure of sustaining blocks down to a minimum. On plays in which Dak Prescott was pressured last week, the average time to throw sat at 4.47 seconds. That’s a long time for anyone to maintain a block.

A quicker trigger doesn’t just apply to Prescott’s arm but also his legs. By being a threat to run, pass rushers will be more apprehensive in their attacks. They’ll maintain their lanes and try to contain. It’s a win-win for Dallas since Prescott will either get scramble opportunities or more time in the pocket. But he has to establish that run threat early.

Looking at the big picture, a better performance by the offensive line isn’t just on the five men up front, but on the whole team. Play design needs to be made with them and the defense in mind. QB play has to be smart and decisive. Even the defense plays a role since it’s on them to keep the score close so the offense doesn’t have to be one-dimensional.

There are a lot of areas the Cowboys have to improve in Week 16 but better outcomes on the offensive line would indicate things are going well all over the field. It’s a good week for redemption.

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Cowboys ‘just don’t know’ about Zack Martin, Tyron Smith’s status for Miami

From @ToddBrock24f7: Both star linemen have missed the previous 2 days of practice with injuries; a ferocious Dolphins defense awaits in a big Week 16 matchup.

No one in Cowboys Nation wants to repeat any aspect of Week 3’s disaster in the desert, when the lowly Arizona Cardinals led a decimated Dallas team from wire to wire and notched a stunning 28-16 win.

Yet just 48 hours before a monumental interconference matchup with the explosive Miami Dolphins, the Cowboys might be coming into Week 16 with one very troubling similarity.

Right guard Zack Martin and left tackle Tyron Smith are both nursing injuries that have the Cowboys talking contingency plans.

“I just don’t know,” Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said on Friday, “and we won’t know until it gets here. We’ve got a few days to go.”

Martin and Smith represent a combined 16 Pro Bowl appearances; their absences against one of the top defenses in the league would not bode well for the Cowboys coming out of Hard Rock Stadium with a win.

Too doom-and-gloom for you?

Consider that the last time both both were missing from the starting lineup was that ugly September outing in Glendale, and the opponent that day was a winless flock of Cardinals.

Martin left last week’s game versus Buffalo in the first quarter after taking a hard hit to his thigh. A quick check in the sideline medical tent revealed that his quad muscle “wasn’t firing,” and he sat out the rest of the contest.

The 10th-year veteran gave positive reports after the loss, telling reporters, “I feel good about” the prospect of being ready to go against Miami. He sat out the team’s practices on Wednesday and Thursday but remained optimistic on Friday.

“Just trying to do as much as you can, trying to get it just to get some of that soreness and tightness out, keep it firing, getting ready to play Sunday,” he said during his weekly radio call-in with GBag Nation.

Martin participated in Friday’s walkthrough, while Smith did not.

Smith’s appearance on the injury report was unexpected, showing up Wednesday with a back injury he suffered during the Buffalo game. He, like Martin, did not practice on either Wednesday or Thursday, but his prognosis sounded a little less encouraging.

Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said on 105.3 The Fan, “I would say Zack’s ahead of Tyron right now.”

Jones concurred with that assessment a few hours later, allowing for the possibility that Smith, who just turned 33, will miss his fourth game of 2023.

“We’ve got a game plan that’s going to be there without him,” Jones told the K&C Masterpiece Show. “It won’t be as pleasing as one with him, but we’ll have a game plan.”

Smith has already missed 36 games since the start of the 2020 campaign due to injury.

T.J. Bass filled in for Martin in Week 3 and again on Sunday. Chuma Edoga figures to get the call should Smith be unable to play in Miami.

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Whoever suits up in South Florida in Week 16, the Cowboys will be looking for them to not only bounce back after a lackluster effort in Buffalo, but to take things up to a playoff-level intensity against a powerhouse Dolphins squad, with the real postseason looming for both clubs.

“You have to be ready to go,” Jones said. “You’ve got to have depth. You’ve got to have people step in. They’re never going to be the perfect pictured performance of a Smith or a Martin. They’re never going to be that, but they do surprise you.”

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Tyreek Hill the biggest wildcard in Cowboys-Dolphins Week 16

Tyreek Hill’s presence in the Miami lineup changes things significantly so the Cowboys must be ready for anything in Week 16

There’s arguably no player who strikes more fear in the hearts of a secondary than Miami WR Tyreek Hill. Hill, blessed with 4.29 40-speed, is nicknamed “cheetah” for a reason. He’s regarded as the fastest player in the NFL, and he has a highlight reel to prove it.

It’s understandable if the Cowboys’ game prep looks significantly different game-planning for a Dolphins team with Hill vs a Dolphins team without Hill.

It’s not that Hill can just take the top off any defense, it’s that after years of playing under Andy Reid in Kansas City, he knows how to take a routine ball at or behind the line all the way to paydirt as well.

Hill is well versed in the screen game and has an uncanny knack for knowing when to follow blocks and when to turn on the afterburners. His start-stop ability allows him to cut on dime, making it often a team effort to stop the 5-foot-10 blazer.

At the moment, Tyreek Hill’s game status for Week 16 is still in question. He returned to practice on Thursday, but Miami coach Mike McDaniel stated his return was not indicative of his availability against Dallas.

After appearing to be full speed in individual drills, it’s hard to imagine Hill not playing against the Cowboys in Week 16. Given the standings in the AFC, and argument can be made Sunday’s Christmas Eve matchup means more to Miami than it does the Cowboys. They desperately want Hill on the field.

The Cowboys will have to prepare for both situations. Dan Quinn spoke of his desire to cage the Dolphins in and “build a wall” on the edges to limit their outside gains. but if Hill plays they also have to keep bodies back and make sure extra defenders are in place to limit the big plays.

Using press coverage against Hill is understandably a poor idea. He’s strong and quick enough to beat it with ease and based on EPA/play against press, only A.J. Brown is more deadly. Additionally, press against Hill is something Miami QB Tua Tagovailao appears to look for since Hill is the most targeted WR against it this season.

At 5.7 yards, Hill leads the NFL in yards per route against man coverage in 2023. For perspective, CeeDee Lamb is sixth in the league at 3.0 yards/route against man. Taking a passive approach to guarding Hill is out of character for Dallas but likely in the defenses best interest.

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Breaking down Cowboys’ offensive breakdown, how Dolphins will mirror Buffalo

After getting stonewalled last week by frequent 2-high looks, the Cowboys can safely assume they’ll see the same in Week 16 in Miami, says @ReidDHanson

If it wasn’t for the Cowboys’ horrific run defense against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, the Dallas offense would be facing significantly more criticism than they currently are. They were stagnant offensively, and aside from a garbage touchdown late, they were held out of the end zone all day.

In some ways, the Bills took a page from the recently unemployed Brandon Staley and his 2-high scheme that slowed Dallas in Week 6. Buffalo pushed back the coverage and took away big shots downfield. Because their pass rush was routinely getting home, they didn’t need to blitz much. They were able to sit back in coverage and keep things thick in the secondary. They allowed the Cowboys to run the ball and dared them to throw it to the sticks.

And the Cowboys did well rushing the ball. Their success rate on early down runs was at 50.0%, which is well above their season average of just 36.7%. Unfortunately, the Cowboys defense had issues of their own and after falling behind rather quickly, the offense felt compelled to abandon the running game – thus playing into Buffalo’s hands.

Dak Prescott has been phenomenal for most of this season. While he’s played well against many different coverages in 2023, he’s at his best against middle of the field closed looks. He rates at the top of the NFL against those Cover-1 and Cover-3 coverages. It’s just when the safeties split, he slips back into average territory. Part of this is scheme and strategy, but part is also execution.

Absent in Buffalo were the middle of the field throws that he had been executing with precision all season long. It’s a great way to attack split safeties but Prescott only attempted two passes of 10+ yards between the numbers all day. He was pressured last week but all four of his turnover-worthy throws were without facing pressure.

After they watch the film, Miami will no doubt employ a similar plan of attack. When Nick Bosa declared the blueprint to beating the Eagles had been laid out by his 49ers defense, he did so knowing film is public information in the NFL and teams love to copycat and attack weaknesses once they’ve been identified. The Cowboys should expect the same treatment from their upcoming opponents.

The Dolphin’s defense has different strengths and weakness than Buffalo’s, but they’d be fools not to try the same thing that essentially stonewalled the Cowboys. Mike McCarthy’s task is planning for what surely lies ahead.

Dump offs and early down runs are fine if the situation warrants it and the offense is successfully executing such plays. The opposing defense wants Dallas in a third-and-long so there’s nothing wrong with the Cowboys taking some easy early gains so they can avoid bad third down situations.

The Cowboys also have to remember the middle of the field is a great way to get big plays against split safety looks as well. And when the defense plays 2-man like Buffalo often did, (man coverage with two safeties over the top), opportunities for scrambles open up.

In Week 15 the Cowboys appeared ill-prepared to play the Bills defense. In Week 16 they will have no such excuse because what’s coming is fairly obvious.

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