We have two different slates for Divisional Weekend. I will break down each of them game-by-game and give you my Pay-To-Play, Stay Away, and Value Play for each position for each of the two split slates.
However, before we do that, allow me to give you my favorite lineups on the combined slate at each site, too! Note that player salaries may differ on the full slate with the individual day slates (though not by much).
Full Divisional Round Slate
Here are my full Divisional Round Slate recommended lineups:
At DK: $6.6k for Joe Burrow, $5.9k for Devin Singletary, $5.8k for Eli Mitchell, $7.1k for Ja’Marr Chase, $6.2k for A.J. Brown, $5.3k for Odell Beckham, $4.9k for Dawson Knox, $4.6k for Gabriel Davis, and $3.2k for the Green Bay Packers defense.
At FD: $7.7k for Burrow, $7.2k for Singletary, $7.3k for Mitchell, $8.2k for Chase, $7.6k for Brown, $6.5k for Beckham, $5.4k for Tyler Higbee. $5.3K for Davis at FLEX, and $4.5k for the Packers defense.
At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Burrow, Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes at SF, Singletary, and Cam Akers at RB, Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Chase at WR, Anthony Firkser at TE, and Tyreek Hill at FLEX.
Saturday-only Slate
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
Joe Burrow looked solid in the Wild Card game despite facing an above-average pass defense. This week, he faces a Tennessee defense that allowed the second-most passing yards among all of the playoff teams. During the regular season, only one team allowed more receiving yards to opposing WRs and only three teams allowed more scores to that position. Whereas last week, Burrow struggled to get the ball to Tee Higgins on the outside, both Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase should feast this week (Tyler Boyd, too). Six of the eight QBs on the full slate are elite and lead high-end offenses. This means Burrow will likely jockey for the QB3/4 role on the full slate. However, on Sat-only, he will finish as no lower than QB2.
As I just mentioned six of the eight QBs on the full slate are elite. One that isn’t is Ryan Tannehill. He does get an easy matchup this week, but this is a run-first team. In a decent matchup, I’ll list him as the QB3 on Saturday-only. Unfortunately, due to the other available talent, I cannot rank him higher than QB6/7 overall here. He did get the bye to prepare, and he is coming off his best start of the year in Week 18. Plus, he should have both of his starting WRs healthy together for just the eighth time this season. I could see using him as a sneaky cheap option here if you want to load up elsewhere.
Joe Mixon let us down some last week. Vegas toughened up against the run for the first time all season. Tennessee is dominant against the run. Only three teams allowed fewer total RB scores this season, and only one team allowed fewer RB rushing yards this year. They also are solid against pass-catching backs, so Mixon doesn’t even get to take advantage of that. On Sat-only slate, he is no better than RB3. Fortunately, with multiple split backfields remaining on Sunday, Mixon is still probably the RB5 overall. Samaje Perine and Chris Evans are just backups now (and Evans may be out on kick returns after last week’s struggles). Last week, they each had just one touch. This makes them both unusable here, even if this matchup wasn’t awful, to begin with.
The million-dollar question this week is will Derrick Henry play? And, If so, how much? I mean, frankly, he won’t be needed here, since Cincy is mediocre against the run, and because the Bengals lost the majority of their defensive line to injuries last week. D’Onta Foreman could easily finish as the RB2 overall this week if Henry were not to play. With Henry likely usurping the lion’s share of the touches, Foreman slides back to a change-of-pace role, making him FLEX-worthy at best. Of course, if Henry is a full-go, he is the top RB on Sat-only and overall. I just have a feeling that they will ease him back here opening a little more value for Foreman. Dontrell Hilliard was more involved in the passing game than Foreman while Henry was out. With Cincy allowing the fifth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs, I could easily see using him as a punt-FLEX. Assuming a fully-returning Henry, I’ll rank Foreman as RB7 on Sat-Only and Hilliard at RB6.
Last week, Tee Higgins had a bad game and Ja’Marr Chase had a good but not great game (based on his lofty standards). This was because Vegas is very good at defending outside receivers. This week they are facing one of the worst defenses against outside WRs. They will both finish as top-five options on Sat-only and each makes a nice pivot off of Davante Adams at your WR1. Higgins is particularly valuable since teams might be wary of using him after his dud last week. Tyler Boyd should also have a good game, but I expect he sees fewer targets than the other two. He can be considered as your WR3 on Sat-only and as your WR3 overall to get cheap access to this game on the main slate. Auden Tate has been cleared to practice but didn’t appear in the Wild Card round. Watch his status heading into this weekend as he could have Showdown slate value.
Cincy is middling against opposing WRs. They have done well in the second half of the year against alpha WR1s. So, perhaps A.J. Brown will be outperformed by Julio Jones this week. Of course, I can’t say that last sentence with a straight face. Brown is a stud, Julio used to be one (emphasis on the USED TO BE part). Brown is no lower than the WR4 on Saturday, and he makes an ok WR2 on the main slate if you go cheap at RB. Julio actually out-targeted Brown in Week 18. That won’t happen here. He is a possible WR3 on Sat-only, but he can be ignored on the main slate. There are just too many better-skilled WRs to choose from this weekend. Neither Nick Westbrook-Ikhine nor Chester Rogers should appeal to you with both the starters back healthy and Henry back, too. If I had to choose one of them for Showdown contests, I would go with NWI, because he did have a few solid days when the Titans were shorthanded earlier this year.
As I called, C.J. Uzomah had a great game last week as Cincy looked to throw inside against Vegas. This week will be more difficult as Tennessee is considerably better against TEs than WRs. Saturday-only is a dud of a TE slate, so he still may finish as TE2 there. Overall, he can be ignored.
Cincy has actually been pretty awful against TEs. That said, do you really trust Geoff Swaim and Anthony Firkser? They have combined for five scores this year, but they also have combined to have only one game with more than four receptions and only two games with more than 35 receiving yards. I probably have more faith in them than Green Bay’s options, but not by much. If I was throwing a dart, I’d consider Firkser coming off back-to-back scoring performances against this weak defense. This puts him in play on Sat-only but not the full slate (except in a punt situation). Swaim can be left to Showdown contests since he is more TD-dependent.
Neither of these defenses is a match to their opponent’s strength. I’ll just pass on both of them.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Imagine this, Jimmy Garoppolo leads his team to the NFC Championship game and then gets traded or benched heading into next season. It could happen. That said, Green Bay is better against the pass than the run, so if the Niners are going to win, it likely won’t be because the arm of Jimmy G. Garoppolo is the clear bottom QB both on the Sat-only and main slate. The only way he salvages value here is if Green Bay jumps out to a huge lead and he gets to pile up Gar-bage-oppolo Time. A lot of QBs have scored TDs against the Pack in garbage time this year.
Aaron Rodgers will battle with Joe Burrow for the top QB on Saturday. San Fran is actually very solid against the pass, but Rodgers is a step ahead of most other QBs. They also have padded their stats some against bottom-feeding QBs. Rodgers was held to only 261-2 in their earlier meeting, but he also has three or more passing TDs in four of his last six games. I feel 300-3 is back in play for Rodgers here as he has had an extra week to rest his sore toe.
Eli Mitchell is the RB2 on Sat-only and arguably the same overall. If Derrick Henry is limited, he could even finish as the overall RB1 this week. Green Bay’s numbers against RBs are deflated by the fact that they often force their opposition to pass. San Fran won’t care what the score is they will continue to run the ball. The biggest issue that Eli has at this point is Deebo Samuel vulturing his scores. As always, Kyle Juszczyk is a great Showdown play.
Aaron Jones led the backfield in the earlier meeting between these two teams while A.J. Dillon filled more of a change-of-pace role. Since then, this backfield has morphed into more of a timeshare. Jones was held out of the Week 18 game to rest his injured knee. Right now it appears that it won’t be an issue this week. San Fran has been among the best at holding down RB yardage, but they have given up a few RB touchdowns. Jones probably gets the RB3/4 slot on both dockets thanks to the abundance of split backfields. Dillon makes a decent FLEX play on either slate in case Jones suffers an in-game setback.
Deebo Samuel is simply unstoppable at this point. Green Bay is tough against the pass, but they have nobody that can shut down a versatile stud like this. It will be him or Davante Adams that finishes as WR1 on the Sat-only. It will be hard to roster both of them, so I’d likely choose one of them and pair them with Tee Higgins. If you don’t use Samuel, you could use Brandon Aiyuk as a Sat-only WR2. I’d rank him at WR6/7 on that slate. I don’t love him on the full slate, though, as there are much better/cheaper options in that range of talent. Jauan Jennings continues to have FLEX or WR3 value on the small slates. His salary is low enough that I would consider him as a punt-WR3 on either slate. Travis Benjamin is apparently still in the NFL. Yes, I am also surprised. He has historically snuck in a multiple TD performance at some point every season that he has played. I don’t foresee that happening here. That said, he makes a nice dart throw in Showdown contests only because he will likely serve as the return man.
Opposing WR1s have decimated San Francisco all season. This includes Davante Adams abusing them to the tune of 12-132-1 back in Week 3. I’d expect a similar output here. Adams should finish no lower than WR2 on Sat-Only and WR4 overall. Just know that his salary is high and you can get other cheaper options in this offense to help you fit other high-priced players into your lineup. Those cheaper players are Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard. San Fran has also struggled with both speedy field-stretching WRs and slot receivers. I doubt both of them score, but each should have roughly 5-60. I think MVS has the better chance to score a TD. Against most weaker teams, I would suggest Equanimeous St. Brown or Amari Rodgers as Showdown plays. I just don’t think there will enough points here for them to achieve value.
George Kittle is the top TE on Saturday, but he may finish the weekend as low as the TE4 overall. Green Bay is bottom-tier against TEs but Kittle has struggled late, posting a total of 9-78-0 over San Francisco’s last four games. The Niners have to take advantage of this mismatch to have any prayer this week. I think he has a better game than his recent struggles suggest but he still will just finish middle-of-the-pack.
San Fran does give up a decent number of TE scores. They have also been stingy with the yards to the position, but that is because they have faced a motley collection of TEs. Josiah Deguara and Marcedes Lewis qualify as motley. I doubt either of them does anything here.
Green Bay is the smart play for Sat-only defense. San Fran could be a pivot, but I still prefer taking the chalk here. I also like the Pack on the main slate.
Here are my Saturday-only Slate recommended lineups:
At DK: $6.6k for Joe Burrow, $6.8k for Aaron Jones, $5.8k for Eli Mitchell, $5.7k for Tee Higgins, $7.6k for Deebo Samuel, $6.2k for A.J. Brown, $3.1k for Anthony Firkser, $4.3k for Allen Lazard at FLEX, and $3.2k for the Green Bay Packers defense.
At FD: $7.7k for Burrow, $7.5k for Jones, $7.3k for Mitchell, $8.7k for Davante Adams, $7.6k for Brown, $6.4k for Higgins, $5.2k for Firkser, $5.1k for Dontrell Hilliard at FLEX, and $4.5k for the Green Bay defense.
At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Burrow, Ryan Tannehill at SF, Mitchell, and AJ Dillon at RB, Adams, Brown, and Higgins at WR, Samuel at FLEX, and Firkser at TE.
Quarterback
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | $7,100 | $8,400 |
| Joe Burrow | $6,600 | $7,700 |
| Ryan Tannehill | $5,800 | $7,300 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | $5,200 | $6,500 |
| Trey Lance | $5,000 | $6,200 |
Saturday strategy – Joe Burrow and Ryan Tannehill against each other are my favorite plays. I don’t mind Aaron Rodgers, but I don’t love that FD price.
Pay to Play:
Joe Burrow, Bengals @ TEN ($6,600 DK, $7,700 FD)
Burrow has been on fire over the last month. Now he gets to face one of the worst defenses in the league against the pass. Set him as your Sat-only QB and stack him with Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins.
Stay Away:
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. SF ($7,100 DK, $8,400 FD) Rodgers at home is never a complete fade, but San Francisco has the best defense on the Saturday slate, and Rodgers is the priciest QB. If you are going to use him, make it on DK where his price is less. More importantly, watch to see how cold it is going to be at kickoff. Rodgers may be used to playing in the cold, but nobody likes catching the ball when it gets ridiculously cold.
Value Play:
Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. CIN ($5,800 DK, $7,300 FD)
Cincy remains the softest pass defense in the playoffs. This week they travel to Tennessee to face a run-first Titans team that can pass when they need to and that finally has both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones healthy. If Derrick Henry ends up missing this game or he ends up limited Tannehill may be forced to throw to win this game. Even if Henry plays, Tannehill may have to throw just to keep up with the Cincy offense.
Running Back
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | $7,500 | $9,000 |
| Aaron Jones | $6,800 | $7,500 |
| Joe Mixon | $6,600 | $7,800 |
| Eli Mitchell | $5,800 | $7,300 |
| D’Onta Foreman | $5,200 | $5,500 |
| AJ Dillon | $5,100 | $6,100 |
| Samaje Perine | $4,500 | $4,800 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | $4,300 | $5,100 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | $4,100 | $4,500 |
Saturday strategy – If we knew that Derrick Henry was going to play the whole game then he would be a must-start at RB1. However, at this point, we don’t even know for certain that he is going to play. I believe he will, but I also believe he will be limited. This opens up Dontrell Hilliard as a sneaky FLEX play. Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon have rough matchups. Jones is also coming off an injury and splits touches. Still, those two and Eli Mitchell are the only trustable volume plays. Eli will be my most frequently used RB1. I think AJ Dillon is the safest RB2 play based on his lower price. Whichever way you slice it, if you don’t play Henry, you are not spending big here.
Pay to Play:
Eli Mitchell, 49ers @ GB ($5,800 DK, $7,300 FD)
With Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with multiple injuries expect San Francisco to lean heavily on their running game. Some of that will go through Deebo Samuel but most will go through Mitchell. San Fran is built to run through the competition, making Mitchell the safest RB play on Saturday.
Stay Away:
Aaron Jones, Packers vs. SF ($6,800 DK, $7,500 FD)
Jones has an ok matchup, but he will be forced to deal with the shadow of AJ Dillon all game. These two have split carries all season. The best we can hope for is a 60-40 touch advantage for Jones. That isn’t enough to make up for the difference in cost.
Value Play:
AJ Dillon, Packers vs. SF ($5,100 DK, $6,100 FD)
That price difference is why I recommend Dillon rather than Jones. They both will get a fair number of carries, and they both may score this week. In that situation, give me the one that frees me up 20 to 25 percent in cost so that I can spend big at WR.
Wide Receiver
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | $8,500 | $8,700 |
| Deebo Samuel | $7,600 | $8,600 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | $7,100 | $8,200 |
| A.J. Brown | $6,200 | $7,600 |
| Tee Higgins | $5,700 | $6,400 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | $5,100 | $5,900 |
| Tyler Boyd | $4,700 | $5,800 |
| Julio Jones | $4,600 | $5,600 |
| Allen Lazard | $4,300 | $6,000 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | $3,800 | $5,100 |
| Jauan Jennings | $3,400 | $5,000 |
| Chester Rogers | $3,200 | $4,700 |
| Randall Cobb | $3,100 | $5,300 |
| Amari Rodgers | $3,000 | $4,500 |
| Auden Tate | $3,000 | $4,600 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | $3,000 | $4,700 |
| Travis Benjamin | $3,000 | $4,600 |
Saturday strategy – Can I roster five WR1s? Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, and Tee Higgins all could be used. I will have two of these fivesome in all of my lineups. I may even use three of them. The backup Packers, Tyler Boyd, and Jauan Jennings are the best options at WR3 and FLEX (if you don’t use a third RB).
Pay to Play:
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals @ TEN ($7,100 DK, $8,200 FD)
Chase is pricier than his WR teammates but has been an absolute beast this season. His connection with Joe Burrow is immeasurable. Tennessee is rotten against opposing WRs. Plus, they have been particularly putrid against alpha outside WRs. This is a game stack that I like with Burrow and A.J. Brown (especially since I believe this game will be high-scoring).
Stay Away:
Davante Adams, Packers vs. SF ($8,500 DK, $8,700 FD) If you do choose to fade the Packers’ expensive offensive pieces, I wouldn’t blame you. You really want to have two (or three) of those pricy WRs in your lineups, but I have more faith in Green Bay’s backups (Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard, and Randall Cobb) than the other teams’ subordinates. This means that I can still roster two or three of those studs and get exposure to the Pack offense. That said, know that San Fran has been abused by true alpha WR1s all year.
Value Play:
Randall Cobb, Packers vs. SF ($3,100 DK, $5,300 FD)
Cobb is in the playoffs catching passes from Aaron Rodgers … sign me up. Throw in that I can have him on DK for close to one-third of Davante Adams’ price warms the cockles of my heart. He is returning from injury, but we know that Rodgers trusts Cobb wholeheartedly.
Tight End
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | $5,300 | $6,400 |
| C.J. Uzomah | $3,400 | $5,500 |
| Anthony Firkser | $3,100 | $5,200 |
| Josiah Deguara | $3,000 | $4,900 |
| Geoff Swaim | $2,800 | $4,600 |
| Marcedes Lewis | $2,600 | $4,200 |
Saturday strategy – Yuck! George Kittle is the only stud on the board, and he has played like crap over the last month. I will probably hold my nose and play either C.J. Uzomah or Anthony Firkser. Did I say YUCK yet?
Pay to Play:
C.J. Uzomah, Bengals @ TEN ($3,400 DK, $5,500 FD)
Uzomah had a great Wild Card game, but that was against a defense that funnels the ball to the middle of the field. He won’t set the world on fire but, in what should be a high-scoring game, makes a cheap punt option to gain exposure to this offense. If he can get into the end zone again that is an easy 3x on DK.
Stay Away:
George Kittle, Niners @ GB ($5,300 DK, $6,400 FD)
This is another case of a great player horribly underperforming recently and facing a middling defense in what projects to be a lower-scoring contest, potentially in subarctic weather. I’m tired of watching Kittle produce more pancake blocks than receptions. The talent is there, the matchup as I mention above is okay, we just need to see Kittle get it going again. Until that happens, I cannot in good faith spend this much for him. I’d feel considerably better about his chances if we knew that Jimmy Garoppolo was 100 percent. Although, maybe Garoppolo is the problem and Kittle needs Trey Lance to unlock his recent struggles.
Value Play:
Anthony Firsker, Titans vs. CIN ($3,100 DK, $5,200 FD)
Firkser has scored in back-to-back games and Cincy is easily the worst remaining defense against TEs, so he has that going for him. That said, trusting him here makes me kind of want to throw up.
Sunday-only Slate
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa is easy to beat through the air. This sets up nicely for Matthew Stafford, who has several weapons to work with. You can’t run the ball against Tampa Bay, so Stafford will have to take this on his own back. On Sunday-only, he is my QB3, and I could see him finish as high as QB5 on the full slate. His discount price will make him one of my favorite options.
The Rams give up a ton of passing yards but only one team has allowed fewer passing TDs. Tom Brady isn’t just any old QB. He is capable of bending the stats and trends. Unfortunately, his cupboard is looking barer and barer. On name alone, I trust him for a ceiling of 300-2. Still, this might be the low figure on Sunday-only. I do not like his price for the full slate. He should be a fairly easy fade this week.
Cam Akers even playing at this point in the season is remarkable. His trucking defenders and putting up solid overall numbers is just plain crazy. This is not a good matchup for Akers, but his price is so damn cheap still. Making matters tougher here is that Sony Michel is still getting a healthy complement of carries. Regardless, Akers seems to have passed the eye test as far as health goes. His talent is stronger than that of Michel, so as the postseason progresses, I expect him to add more and more touches. One thing I am comfortable with is that Akers will be the passing down back here. That is the ONLY way to do damage against this defense with your RBs. This should secure Akers no worse than RB4 on Sunday-only, and Michel likely slides to RB5/6 range.
Leonard Fournette appeared 100 percent ready to go early last week. Then, as the week progressed, he got more and more questionable. That was a disappointing trend, because the matchup was a positive one. The Rams are middling against the run and against pass-catching backs. If Fournette was 100 percent certain for this week, I would identify him as the clear RB2 on Sun-only and a top-four play overall. Right now, it appears that Playoff Lenny will be a full go for this week, but as I said, that is what we thought last week, too. If Fournette misses this game, the backfield will likely be split once again between Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Giovani Bernard. As a tandem, they could each be FLEX plays, but neither has a clear advantage in role in this particular game script. One piece of clarity is coming out in that Ronald Jones didn’t even practicing yet. I read that to mean he is a no-go, but he’ll get an official update Friday.
Cooper Kupp had, by his standards, a down week last week. That could happen when you run the ball more than twice as often as you throw it. That run-first strategy would be asinine this week. If Los Angeles doesn’t finish this game with a 2-to-1 passing advantage in play-calling, they are going to lose. Kupp will catch a lot of short passes over the middle in a sort of non-run running role. He will also score again. His salary will make it tough to roster this week, but he will approach 3x no matter what. If you want to save some money, I’d use Odell Beckham. OBJ has scored in six of his last eight games. He is basically a cheat code this week as this game will be passing-forward. I also like Van Jefferson to have a more useful game this week. Beckham is a lock at WR2 if you don’t use Kupp. Jefferson can be your WR3 regardless of Cooper’s usage. Kupp is the WR1 overall and for Sun-only. Beckham is Sunday’s WR5 and WR10 overall. Jefferson is more a Sunday-only play as there are better WR3 options to choose from overall. The Rams also have Ben Skowronek. He hasn’t caught a pass the last two weeks. I’m not even sure I would use him in a Showdown contest.
Mike Evans gets the painful assignment of being shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. This isn’t a death knell, but it doesn’t boost his value. Last week, Evans went off despite the Darius Slay shadow. So, he can be effective in bad matchups. That said, I don’t love him, especially when you see his price tag. He is the WR4 on Sunday-only and WR9 overall. Tyler Johnson was second among the WR room last week with two catches. That isn’t good. Johnson, Breshad Perriman, and Scotty Miller combined for an uninspiring seven total targets. Evans had more by himself. Maybe Bruce Arians can swap out the nameplate and number off of Miller’s jersey and replace it with the name and number of Julian Edelman. Then perhaps Brady would look his way. The Rams can be bothered through the air. They allowed the third-most WR receptions and the fourth-most WR receiving yards. Unfortunately, only one team allowed fewer WR touchdowns during the regular season. Evans will get his token TD, but I don’t trust any of these other receivers to catch one. The best you can hope for from any of them is probably 6-60. That is barely good enough to consider for WR3 on Sunday-exclusive slate. Perhaps, the best hope for TB is if Cyril Grayson returns this week. He had a rapport going with Brady over the last couple of weeks of the regular season before getting hurt. Unfortunately, as of midweek he still isn’t practicing, so he is probably doubtful.
Tampa has allowed middling stats against opposing TEs. That said, they also have faced a lot of crappy tight ends, so those numbers are skewed slightly down. Every above-average tight end they have faced has fared well against them. Tyler Higbee is just barely above-average, but his price makes him a sneaky Sunday play, despite the TE4 rank. What is amazing is that even with that low rank on Sunday, he will likely finish no lower than TE5 overall.
With Ramsey attempting to shutdown Evans, Rob Gronkowski should see a ton of targets. The Rams are so-so against TEs also, so Gronk could produce a solid line as the TE2 on Sunday-only. If you want to save some money on the position, I’d use Cameron Brate. He should see a fair amount of targets, too, and all he needs is that one TD to reach 3x on DK. I’m not going to stretch for O.J. Howard outside of a Showdown dart throw.
On Sunday-only, you are playing one of these two defenses. I like the Rams more than the Bucs as Tampa suffered multiple O-line injuries last week.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
In this matchup, we just have to throw the stats out the window. We have two dominating offenses facing two upper-echelon defenses. One of two things is going to happen. We will end up with a 20-17 game or a 52-49 game. I don’t see us finishing anywhere in between those extremes. Frankly, I think both QBs will be leaving it all on the field. This should mean the 52-49 game is more likely. This, of course, places Josh Allen right in my sights as the QB1 on Sunday-only and quite probably overall. Allen went berzerker last week at home versus an equally tough New England defense. He will do just fine here.
On paper, Patrick Mahomes has the tougher matchup. Of course, we all know that this means nothing here. If Allen is throwing the ball repeatedly, then so is Mahomes. Each of these QBs could show out with 400-5, but I think both will finish with a floor around 375-3.
Devin Singletary has gone from being the low-end of a three-way split backfield to the only clear every-down back on the Sunday-only slate. He is my RB1 there and no worse than RB4 overall. I will fit him in almost all of my lineups. Zack Moss has been a non-factor since Week 5 and Matt Breida has slipped so far that he hasn’t even been active recently. Moss could be used as an injury pivot on Showdown, but he has no value unless Singletary goes down.
At this point, it appears that Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be the Chiefs’ starting RB this week. CEH looked at full speed on Wednesday, so my hope is that he is good to go. If he can play, he is no worse than RB4 here. Darrel Williams is still battling a toe issue. He suited up for Wild Card Weekend but played second fiddle to Jerick McKinnon. Williams’ practices this week have been limited, and his Wild Card usage concerns me. I’m hoping he is just ruled out for this game to limit the confusion here. You could certainly argue that McKinnon deserves to start based on his performances of late. At worst, he will be a change-of-pace play here and no worse than RB6 on Sunday-only. If all three of them suit up, it is best to just avoid this backfield. If we can limit it to one or two of them, I will load up since Buffalo has looked lost against RBs since late November. Derrick Gore saw minimal touches over the last few weeks. I am not sure I would even use him in Showdown, unless CEH and Williams are both out.
Stefon Diggs is the top WR for Buffalo. Opposing alpha WR1s have given KC fits all season long even as their defense improved over the course of the season. Diggs didn’t do a ton in their earlier meeting, but that game was out of hand pretty early. I have Diggs at WR3 on Sunday slates and WR5 overall. He will be my WR2 in most lineups. Emmanuel Sanders returned last week and immediately scored a long TD. He also had two touchdowns in the Bills’ earlier victory over KC. Of course, that victory came before Buffalo started utilizing Gabriel Davis more frequently. Davis has since passed Sanders on the progression chart of Josh Allen. Either would be a great WR3 play on either slate. I prefer Davis however because of the larger volume of targets. Cole Beasley, on the other hand, has disappeared of late. He has only 12 targets in the three games since returning from his COVID absence. His potential PPR value makes him an always playable WR3 on DK. I just wouldn’t go overboard on him. One of the reasons that Beasley is seeing less work is the continued strong play of Isaiah McKenzie. I trust Beasley more than McKenzie in the main tourneys, but McKenzie is a lock play in Showdown.
Tyreek Hill is the WR2 on Sunday and no worse than WR4 overall. The few elite WR1s that Buffalo faced this year fared well against them. More importantly, it is speedy field-stretchers that have had the most success all year. This puts Mecole Hardman into the discussion as a sneaky WR3 play here, too. Hardman has lost some snaps to Byron Pringle recently. Both have a great chance to score. If I don’t use Hill at WR1, one of those two will be in my lineup as a WR3 or FLEX. Demarcus Robinson is riding a solid three-game stretch. If this game goes bananas, he could have a solid line. I’m not going to go out of my way to use him, though. The same goes for Josh Gordon even if he does suit up.
I was so wrong about Dawson Knox last week. I thought he was doomed against New England. This week will be so much easier to trust him. KC has allowed solid lines to virtually all of the legitimate TEs they have faced this year. This included giving up a bunch of receptions and yards to Zach Gentry and Pat Freiermuth last week and allowing Knox to post 3-117-1 earlier this year.
Travis Kelce is never a fade. He can easily go off for 10-110-2 at any time. This isn’t the best matchup for him, but Kelce does have five TDs in his last three games against Buffalo. My biggest concern with Kelce is his price and how to fit him in with all of the big-buck WRs. If you choose to use him, be prepared to go cheap at WR2 and/or WR3.
Both of these defenses can make things happen and force turnovers. That said, there will be many points scored here, which may remove whatever value you might get from those turnovers. If the weather ends up iffy, I could punt with one of them on Sunday-only, but I’d rather use Tampa or LA.
Here are my Sunday-only Slate recommended lineups:
At DK: $7.6k for Josh Allen, $5.9k for Devin Singletary, $5.5k for Cam Akers, $6.6k for Tyreek Hill, $6.5k for Stefon Diggs, $5.3k for Odell Beckham, $4.9k for Dawson Knox, $4.6k for Gabriel Davis at FLEX, and $3k for the Los Angeles Rams defense.
At FD: $7.4k for Matthew Stafford, $7.2k for Singletary, $5.7k for Akers, $9.5k for Cooper Kupp, $8.2k for Hill, $7.8k for Diggs, $4.5k for Cameron Brate. $5.3k for Davis at FLEX, and $4.3k for the Rams defense.
At Fanball (featuring SuperFlex): Allen, Patrick Mahomes at SF, Singletary, and Akers at RB, Kupp, Diggs, and Hill at WR, Brate at TE, Davis at FLEX.
Quarterback
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | $7,600 | $8,800 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $7,300 | $8,500 |
| Tom Brady | $6,800 | $7,800 |
| Matthew Stafford | $6,200 | $7,400 |
Sunday strategy – This Sunday, when choosing your QB, might I suggest ALL OF THE ABOVE. Tom Brady is the GOAT, but he is also the least safe play here. If I fade anyone, it is him. That said, all four of these guys will have big games. So, prepare to make many different lineup combinations featuring each of them.
Pay to Play:
Josh Allen, Bills @ KC ($7,600 DK, $8,800 FD)
Allen is on the road, but don’t let that scare you. Both he and Patrick Mahomes will approach 400-4 here. The advantage Allen has is that he has better running skills than Mahomes, so any point difference this week will likely come on the ground. Plus, even though they are playing better since they last met, KC’s defense is still not as great as the one from Buffalo.
Stay Away:
Tom Brady, Buccaneers vs. LAR ($6,800 DK, $7,800 FD) Tampa suffered some key injuries to their offensive line last week. They are hopeful that all of them can return this week, but if they can’t or if they are limited, Brady could be running for his life from Aaron Donald and Von Miller. I know Brady keeps his body temple healthy, but he is no spring chicken. We don’t want to see him running for his life. Ultimately, Brady’s success or failure this week may depend on how successfully Mike Evans performs in Jalen Ramsey’s shadow coverage.
Value Play:
Matthew Stafford, Rams @ TB ($6,200 DK, $7,400 FD) To save money for the expensive WRs this weekend, you need to pay down somewhere. Tampa Bay has been near the bottom of the league against the pass all season. Meanwhile, Stafford is leading an offense that is hitting a stride, featuring stackable mates: Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee.
Running Back
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | $5,900 | $7,200 |
| Leonard Fournette | $5,700 | $7,000 |
| Ronald Jones | $5,600 | $5,200 |
| Cam Akers | $5,500 | $5,700 |
| Sony Michel | $5,300 | $5,300 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | $5,200 | $5,700 |
| Giovani Bernard | $5,000 | $5,400 |
| Jerick McKinnon | $4,800 | $6,000 |
| Ke’Shawn Vaughn | $4,700 | $5,300 |
| Darrel Williams | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| Zack Moss | $4,100 | $4,700 |
| Derrick Gore | $4,000 | $4,700 |
Sunday strategy: I never thought I would see the day where Devin Singletary would be the only back on a slate guaranteed of not being part of a split backfield. He is my RB1. RB2 is much tougher. If Leonard Fournette starts, he probably deserves to be RB2. That said, we thought he was going to play last week and then he didn’t. If Fournette is out, I’ll likely just use whoever starts for KC at RB2. Cam Akers could be in play in a tough matchup if you trust his receiving skills. Otherwise, there really isn’t an obvious value play, unless Jerick McKinnon or Ke’Shawn Vaughn end up starting for their respective teams.
Pay to Play:
Devin Singletary, Bills @ KC ($5,900 DK, $7,200 FD)
Singletary has been a victim of backfield-by-committee for the last couple of years, but astute owners will remember that when he first came up he looked very good as a featured back. On this slate, he is the only featured back guaranteed to play and not cede touches to another running back. That volume alone makes him the best start on this board. Of course, KC’s inability to cover backs catching passes just boosts his potential.
Stay Away:
Sony Michel, Rams @ TB ($5,300 DK, $5,300 FD)
Good luck trying to run the ball against the league’s best rushing defense. Making matters worse for him, Michel has fallen behind the returning Cam Akers in the pecking order once again. One thing that Tampa is bad at is covering pass-catching backs. Unfortunately for Sony, that is Akers’ role, too.
Value Play:
Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs vs. BUF ($4,800 DK, $6,000 FD) or Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs vs. BUF ($5,200 DK, $5,700 FD)
Buffalo has struggled against opposing RBs over the last month plus. They particularly struggled last week on passes to New England’s running backs. Edwards-Helaire is likely back as the lead back for KC this week. However, he hasn’t done much in the passing game since early 2020. Darrel Williams has been more of the passing down back for KC this year, but he is doubtful for this week. Meanwhile, McKinnon has looked like he should be the every-down back with his studly play the last two weeks (including both on the ground and through the air). Whichever of these two starts should be in your lineup as RB2 and the other could be a decent FLEX.
Wide Receiver
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | $8,600 | $9,500 |
| Mike Evans | $6,800 | $8,300 |
| Tyreek Hill | $6,600 | $8,200 |
| Stefon Diggs | $6,500 | $7,800 |
| Odell Beckham | $5,300 | $6,500 |
| Gabriel Davis | $4,600 | $5,300 |
| Van Jefferson | $4,400 | $5,500 |
| Byron Pringle | $4,300 | $5,700 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | $4,200 | $5,500 |
| Cyril Grayson | $4,100 | $5,200 |
| Breshad Perriman | $4,000 | $5,100 |
| Cole Beasley | $4,000 | $5,200 |
| Mecole Hardman | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| Tyler Johnson | $3,700 | $5,000 |
| Demarcus Robinson | $3,600 | $5,100 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | $3,500 | $4,800 |
| Scotty Miller | $3,300 | $4,900 |
| Ben Skowronek | $3,000 | $4,600 |
| Jaelon Darden | $3,000 | $4,600 |
| Josh Gordon | $3,000 | $4,600 |
Sunday strategy – Much like Saturday, I want to start all of the top WRs. I will do what I can to roster two of Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs. I will then pair that twosome with Odell Beckham (if I don’t use Kupp), Gabriel Davis (if I don’t use Diggs), or Byron Pringle (if I don’t use Hill). I could also use one of the other Bills, one of the other Chiefs, or Van Jefferson to differentiate.
Pay to Play:
Cooper Kupp, Rams @ TB ($8,600 DK, $9,500 FD)
Tampa is bad against the pass, and they are particularly bad against the opposition’s top WR. Kupp manhandled Tampa back in Week 3. I see no way that he doesn’t repeat that here.
Stay Away:
Mike Evans, Buccaneers vs. LAR ($6,800 DK, $8,300 FD) Kudos to Evans for putting up a solid line last week against Darius Slay. I didn’t expect it, but he got force-fed so much that volume ultimately paid off. He gets another awful assignment this week in Jalen Ramsey. You can always expect Evans to be in play for a TD, but the yardage and receptions aren’t going to be there this week. There are just way too many better options in the same price range to risk his TD dependency.
Value Play:
Gabriel Davis, Bills @ KC ($4,600 DK, $5,300 FD) Since Week 13, Davis has had five TDs compared to Stefon Diggs’ three. Some of that usage was because Emmanuel Sanders missed some time, but you can’t disregard the scoring. This game will be high scoring and that should present opportunities for all of the Bills’ weapons. Over their last four regular-season games, KC allowed the second-most receiving yards and the third-most TDs to opposing WRs. Then, they allowed 17 receptions and two WR scores last week. Yes, the KC pass defense is better than it was to start the year but they can still be beaten. I particularly like the chances of Davis since he will not see either of the Chiefs’ top cornerbacks.
Tight End
| DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | $6,500 | $8,200 |
| Rob Gronkowski | $5,800 | $7,100 |
| Dawson Knox | $4,900 | $6,500 |
| Tyler Higbee | $4,000 | $5,400 |
| Cameron Brate | $2,700 | $4,500 |
Sunday strategy – Saturday at TE sucked. Sunday looks relatively pleasant. I may even be able to use double-TE again here. Travis Kelce is expensive but an okay play. Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate could see value with Mike Evans being taken out. Tyler Higbee could take advantage of a short-handed secondary in Tampa and my favorite play, Dawson Knox, gets the best matchup on the board.
Pay to Play:
Dawson Knox, Bills @ KC ($4,900 DK, $6,500 FD) I dropped the ball on Knox last week. I really thought New England would hold him in check. Instead, Knox went out and scored twice (although one was a fluke). Dawson has faced KC twice now and he has scored in both games. He also has posted a combined 9-159 in those games.
Stay Away:
Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers vs. LAR ($5,800 DK, $7,100 FD)
Gronkowski could finish with a reasonable line based on volume if Tom Brady is forced to throw away from Mike Evans. Unfortunately for Gronk, the Rams have managed to hold George Kittle and Zach Ertz in check over consecutive weeks. You know that he will catch a TD, because that is what he does, but the yards might not be high enough to justify that FD price.
Value Play:
Cameron Brate, Buccaneers vs. LAR ($2,700 DK, $4,500 FD)
Someone has to catch passes for Tampa this week. It might as well be Brate. We know that Tom Brady trusts him as evidenced by the Super Bowl celebration last year. He was targeted five times in their earlier meeting and has scored four times since Week 10. All he will need is a TD to reach 3x on DK and yards or receptions will be a bonus.