Tag: Cubs Brewers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (32-47) and Milwaukee Brewers (46-35) begin a 3-game series Monday at American Family Field with 1st pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 5-5

Milwaukee finished their 6-game road trip going 4-2 with a 2-0 victory Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates..

The Cubs failed to extend their 4-game winning streak and were unable to get their first sweep of the season, losing 4-2 at home against the Boston Red Sox.

Cubs at Brewers projected starters

LHP Justin Steele vs. LHP Eric Lauer

Steele (3-5, 4.39 ERA) will make his 16th start this season. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 69 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Won 8-3 Wednesday vs. the Cincinnati Reds with 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K.
  • Has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts, but earned a no-decision in 3 of those games.
  • 75% of his walks comes against right-handed batters.

Lauer (6-3, 4.02 ERA) will make his 15th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 50 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision in Wednesday’s 5-3 win vs. the Tampa Bay Rays with 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K.
  • Had a 6.83 ERA in June with opposing batters hitting .284.
  • His 24% strikeout percentage is the highest of his 5-year career.

Cubs at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:29 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cubs +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-160) | Brewers -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Cubs at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 6, Cubs 5

Money line

LEAN BREWERS (-155)

The Brewers post the 5th-best win percentage in MLB after a win and they are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.

On the flip side, the Cubs struggle after a loss, winning 40% of the time.

The Brewers are also 26-15 against the NL Central, while posting losing records against the NL East and NL West.

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Run line/Against the spread

In their 10 head-to-head matchups this season, half of them were 1-run games, but Cubs +1.5 (-160) is just too pricey. It’s best to AVOID.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER (-130)

The Cubs hit the Over in their last 4 games against a left-handed starter and the Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.

The Cubs also have 4 players, Wilson Contreras, Yan Gomes, Ian Happ, and Andrelton Simmons who have a 1.00 OPS or greater against Lauer. And the Cubs are 4th in MLB with a .326 OPS.

While the Brewers’ Christian Yelich ranks 83rd in 2022 with a .742 OPS, this year against Steele he is has a whopping 1.143 OPS. He is also batting .290 against the Cubs this season.

I expect the bats to show up this 4th of July.

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (8-12) meet the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers (14-7) for the second of their 4-game series at American Family Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee crushed Chicago 11-1 Friday in the series opener, hitting 6 HR and Brewers starting pitcher Adrian Houser throwing 6-scoreless innings with 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K.

Season series: Tied 2-2 but the Brew Crew has outscored the Cubs 20-19.

Cubs at Brewers projected starters

LHP Justin Steele vs. LHP Eric Lauer

Steele (1-2, 5.40 ERA) lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-3 Sunday, throwing 3 IP with 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 2 K. He beat Milwaukee 9-0 April 9, and Steele went 5-scoreless IP with 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.

  • 2021 vs. the Brewers: 0-1 with a 3.97 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 5 ER). 9 H, 6 BB and 9 K across 2 starts and 2 relief appearances.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 4.10 FIP with a .213 expected batting average (xBA), .266 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .298 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 19.5 K% and 87.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 41 plate appearances (PA).

Lauer (1-0, 2.20 ERA) earned a no-decision in Milwaukee’s 1-0 over the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday with 6 IP, 5 H, 1 BB and 13 K.

  • 2021 vs. the Cubs: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 6-4 loss in September 2021 with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
  • vs. Cubs on the current roster: 1.03 FIP with a .230 xBA, .263 xwOBA, .345 xSLG, 32.0 K% and 85.3 mph EV in 25 PA.

Cubs at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cubs +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Brewers -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Cubs at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Cubs 2

Money line

LEAN to the BREWERS (-170) because they have a sizeable edge in the starting pitching matchup.

For instance, Lauer’s pitching peripherals (2.61 FIP) line up with his basic numbers (2.20 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), and he’s power-ranked as the No. 22 starting pitcher, per Fangraphs, while Steele is 139th in FanGraphs’ starter power rankings and grades out as below-average in many advanced metrics.

But, the Chicago bullpen’s pitching peripherals are identical to Milwaukee’s, and the Cubs (+135) have been more productive at the plate to start the year.

LEAN BREWERS (-170).

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Run line/Against the spread

Slight LEAN to the BREWERS -1.5 (+125) because they’ve beaten the Cubs +1.5 (-155) by at least 2 runs in eight of their last nine meetings.

Also, the Brewers are 52-38 RL versus NL East foes since the beginning of last season while the Cubs are 38-48 RL against their division over that span.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 7.5 (-102) because Milwaukee’s pitching is phenomenal while its hitting remains subpar and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed south of the total.

According to Pregame.com, most of the cash and bets placed are on the Over but the total has been lowered from an 8-run opener.

RLM should be a red flag for any sports bettor because you have to ask yourself “why are the sportsbooks making the more popular side cheaper? Hmm.”

The UNDER 7.5 (-107) is my favorite wager in the Cubs-Brewers meeting.

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (42-37) and Milwaukee Brewers (46-33) play the second game of a three-game set Tuesday with an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch at American Family Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zach Davies is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. He is 5-4 with a 4.31 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 79 1/3 IP over 16 starts.

Davies allowed five walks with four strikeouts across six scoreless and hitless innings Thursday at Dodger Stadium for the win. He combined with RHP Ryan Tepera, LHP Andrew Chafin and RHP Craig Kimbrel for the seventh no-hitter this season.

RHP Brandon Woodruff is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 6-3 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 95 IP over 15 starts.

Woodruff allowed just one run, three hits and two walks with nine strikeouts across seven innings in a win at the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday. He has served up six homers in just 24 innings in four outings in June.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Cubs at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:53 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-120) | Brewers -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Brewers 6, Cubs 3

Money line (ML)

The Brewers (-200) will cost you two times your potential return, and that’s just not an attractive pick or value play. Instead, look to the run line instead.

AVOID.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The BREWERS -1.5 (+100) are a much better play on the run line at home, even though the Cubs pitching staff combined for the no-no last time Davies started on the bump.

Milwaukee treated Chicago rudely in the series opener, rolling to a 14-4 rout Monday night. The Brewers will win Tuesday, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 7.5 (+100) is the lean here, although there is some risk as the Cubs bats have been ice cold lately. They are averaging just 2.4 runs per game across the past 15 outings, so the Brewers will have to do the heavy lifting.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (42-36) kick off a three-game set with the NL Central rival Milwaukee Brewers (45-33) Monday at American Family Field. Game 1’s first pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 6-3.

RHP Kyle Hendricks makes his 16th start for the Cubs. Hendricks is 10-4 with a 3.84 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 37 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-1, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 5 K Tuesday vs. the Cleveland Indians.
  • Hendricks is 1-0 in two starts against Milwaukee this season with a 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 6.0 K/BB rate.
    • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 206 at-bats with a .223/.265/.301 slash line, 49/10 K/BB, 3 HR and 10 RBIs.

RHP Freddy Peralta takes the hill for the Brewers. Peralta is 7-2 with a 2.11 ERA (81 IP, 19 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 across 15 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-0, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB and 10 K Tuesday at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  • Peralta is 2-0 in three starts vs. Chicago this season with a 1.80 ERA (15 IP, 3 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB rate.
    • vs. Cubs on the current roster: 87 at-bats with a .195/.293/.299 slash line, 37/11 K/BB, 1 HR and 6 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Cubs at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:22 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-165) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Brewers 4, Cubs 2

Money line (ML)

Both starters have good numbers against their opponents, but Peralta’s pitching peripherals vs. active Cubs hitters are far more impressive than Hendricks’ against Milwaukee.

Peralta has a 2.45 FIP against current Chicago batters, while Hendricks has a 2.77 FIP vs. active Brewers hitters.

However, Peralta has a .205 expected wOBA, .123 expected batting average, .183 expected slugging percentage and 34.5% strikeout rate.

Hendricks has a .297 expected wOBA, .248 expected batting average, .371 expected slugging percentage and 23.7% strikeout rate.

Finally, Chicago’s lineup has been atrocious recently, ranking dead-last in WAR, wRC+ and wOBA over the past two weeks.

Since Peralta has some of the nastiest stuff in the league—92nd percentile of whiff rate, 99th percentile of expected batting average and 95th percentile of expected wOBA—the play is to BET the BREWERS (-155) for a 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Milwaukee’s lineup has been terrible at home this season (more on that below) and the Brewers are just 14-18 ATS as a home favorite while the Cubs are 15-12 ATS as a road underdog in 2021.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7 (-105) for a half unit because Peralta has been one of the best pitchers in the NL so far this season and Hendricks has righted the ship after struggling to start the year.

Hendricks has eight straight quality starts and hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two outings (12 innings pitched). Also, the Under is 6-2-1 in the nine Cubs-Brewers meeting this season.

Furthermore, Chicago’s lineup is one of the least productive on the road. The Cubs rank 23rd in both wRC+ and wOBA on the road with the 22nd-ranked hard-hit rate.

Conversely, the Brewers are in the bottom 6 lineup of the majors at home in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (5-6) and Milwaukee Brewers (6-5) put a lid on their NL Central series at American Family Field Wednesday at 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jake Arrieta is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. In 11 starts over the last two seasons (2020-21), Arrieta is 6-4 with a 4.47 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 1/3 IP. The veteran right-hander has a history of fast starts: he owns a .650 OPS-against in 42 career March/April starts. He also has a fine history in Milwaukee’s home park (.578 OPSA in seven starts).

RHP Corbin Burnes draws the home start for the Brewers. Over 14 games the last two seasons, Burnes is 4-2 with a 1.87 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in 72 IP. He has only allowed 1 ER on two hits through 12 1/3 IP in two turns this season. Over those two starts, Burnes fanned 20 batters without issuing a walk.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Cubs at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Brewers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-135) | Brewers -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Brewers 5, Cubs 3

Money line (ML)

The Chicago offense typically is not at its best against right-handed pitchers and thus far in 2021, that certainly holds true for the Cubs. They are 2-6 against right-handed starters.

The Cubs won Tuesday’s contest, 3-2, but are still too far off their game offensively with just 2.90 runs per game (30th in MLB) to make them an attractive side. Arrieta does not have a good line against current Brewers hitters (high-contact .801 OPS allowed), and his surface stats through two starts are generous compared to the dangerous contact he has yielded. He’s a fly-ball pitcher living dangerously. And in this get-away matinee contest, he’s backed by the more taxed bullpen.

Milwaukee is the lean. The price on the ML is too rich, though.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

It’s no slam dunk against a Cubs team plating a bunch of low-scoring games thus far, but the run-line price on Milwaukee is workable in what figures as an Over lean on the total. BACK THE BREWERS -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Peg both offenses as being snake bitten by low batting averages on balls in play. Add in the fade lean on Arrieta and TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (4-5) and Milwaukee Brewers (5-4) open a three-game series at American Family Field Monday at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Adbert Alzolay is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. In seven appearances last season and this April, Alzolay is 1-2 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9 over 26 1/3 IP. He faced these Brewers Tuesday and allowed 4 runs on 4 hits with 4 strikeouts and 2 walks over 5 innings in a loss.

RHP Freddy Peralta draws the home start for the Brewers. Over two starts and 15 relief appearances the last two seasons, Peralta is 4-1 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 15.1 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 over 36 1/3 IP. Tuesday, he pitched 5 scoreless frames against Chicago. Current Cubs batters own a strikeout-laden .499 OPS against Peralta.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Cubs at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs +1.5 (-175) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Brewers 5, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

The Milwaukee offense typically is not at its best against right-handed pitchers. Thus far in 2021, that certainly holds true for Chicago, as the Cubs are 1-5 against right-handed starters.

The earlier matchup swings favor to the Brewers, and the Cubs just come in too far off their game offensively with just 2.89 runs per game to make them an attractive side.

TAKE MILWAUKEE (-130).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Cubs have the better bullpen, and that chips away at taking the home favorite to win by multiple runs. PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Mostly neutral signals here. Tag the OVER 8.5 (-115) with just the slightest of leans.

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