Mallory Swanson has been world-class for nearly two full years now. U.S. women’s national team fans have seen her go from a teenager blessed with rare field vision and speed, to a player whose ability to influence games with those gifts would come and go. Over the last two years though, she’s grown in consistency and control, becoming a player that could start for any team on the planet. The potential has been fulfilled.
Cruelly for her and the USWNT, she’s also being robbed of the chance to show that to the biggest audience possible. Swanson hasn’t been ruled out of the World Cup by U.S. Soccer, but a torn patellar tendon is generally a six-month recovery at best, and the World Cup is in July. The USWNT’s quest to become the first team to win three straight World Cups will almost certainly require doing it without the player who is currently their most potent goal threat.
Any dominant team — and that’s what the USWNT aspires to be, but only sometimes is these days — creates high expected goal (xG) opportunities at a higher rate than average or bad teams, but in truth those chances are rare for everyone. Winning sides create more chances, period, whether we’re talking 0.03 xG no-hopers or 0.83 tap-ins from five yards. Volume is the way forward.
What Swanson has been doing for club and country is taking those far more common low-quality chances, and putting them into the furthest reaches of whatever corner of the goal she’s aiming for. Over the last 18 months or so, Swanson has been reliably improving the odds of her team getting a goal by turning the raw material that is their chances into higher-quality shots, as this piece from Kim McCauley for The Athletic breaks down in depth.
This matters a lot to the USWNT, who have seen their chance volume dip overall, and as a result seem to have to work harder or be more fortunate to get wins against top teams.
The SheBelieves Cup might be instructive. Facing three competitors that should all make the World Cup knockout round, a USWNT team missing Sophia Smith won all three games. That said, only one (their opener against an understandably distracted Canada) was remotely easy. The U.S. xG haul sat at 4.66, and they scored five goals. An average of over 1.55 on a per-game basis is pretty decent, but it’s not the kind of number that says this team is swaggering their way to a coronation Down Under. “Pretty decent” isn’t going to win this particular World Cup.
Swanson scored four of those goals, and at the time Pro Soccer Wire referred to her as “arguably the decisive player in women’s soccer right now.” This team has been working through some troubling faults: being too predictable in building from the back, struggling to recognize the shape and location of an opposing press until the game is already underway, a midfield shape that should have been readjusted to suit the starting group months before it actually was, and an attack that can at times go curiously stagnant. There are varying degrees of progress on all of these fronts, but Swanson conjuring up a goal has been the team’s “get out of jail free” card.
The USWNT was able to win the SheBelieves Cup without one dynamite attacker in Smith, so they know they can get the job done while not at full strength. This is the world’s deepest team, and by a wide margin.
However, we’re still talking about three games on home soil, and in truth there won’t be many bets on Canada, Japan, or Brazil to win the World Cup this summer. They’re not England, Germany, or Spain, and it stands to reason that the USWNT’s narrow wins get so narrow that we’re talking about a coin flip, or even a repeat of the 3-0 meltdown against Sweden back in 2021’s Olympic opener.
In other words, the USWNT had problems to solve with a cheat code in the form of Swanson, and now they have to solve those problems without her.
Change is a must, but how much change?
Speaking minutes after the USWNT’s win over Ireland on Tuesday, Vlatko Andonovski was understandably not ready to commit to whether the team would simply plug another player into Swanson’s spot, make a couple of tweaks and get on with it, or if the team would need to make more significant alterations.
“Losing Mal, obviously conceptually, we may look slightly different, right?” the coach said. “Because you’re looking at this team, the team was going to build around Mal and Soph [Smith] and their attacking power. Now with Mal not being there, we’re gonna have to make a decision. What are we going to go for? Like for like, and try the same way? Or, [Swanson’s production] is going to be replaced by a group of players? … It’s hard.”
It’s very tempting for the USWNT to avoid trying to rebuild their game model this close to the World Cup. That opens them up to even more risk: What if the new approach isn’t quite right? What if it takes too long to work out? There aren’t enough games to try it out in, and the grass is not always greener on the other side.
If continuity is the plan, it appears Andonovski is leaning towards deploying Trinity Rodman. She was the choice off the bench after Swanson’s injury, she got the start on Tuesday, and on raw talent she’s the best option available. She also just so happens to have scored the most Mallory Swanson-looking goal anyone has produced in this NWSL season:
Trinity Rodman really said, "Fine… I'll do it myself."
What a run and finish to give @WashSpirit a 1-0 lead! pic.twitter.com/Pn3YSQonXb
— National Women’s Soccer League (@NWSL) March 26, 2023
However, she’s not Swanson, and fitting her game into the USWNT system will require adjustment. Rodman has been less of the focal point of the Washington Spirit’s attacks than Swanson is with the Chicago Red Stars, and as such doesn’t pile up the same sort of sky-high xG on volume. Where Swanson wants to get into the left half-space to ping shots from the top of the box into various corners of the goal, Rodman may opt to go wide to find a cross to another player, or look to combine.
On the other hand, you gain some noteworthy positives with Rodman: a better aerial presence, and a player who was much more able to contribute progressive carries (per FBref, 87 to Swanson’s 58 in the 2022 NWSL season) and progressive receptions (160 to 127).
This might actually help the USWNT avoid that aforementioned sluggishness moving the ball forward. Swanson beats defenders in the attacking third to score, which is great. Rodman has been beating defenders closer to midfield, which is less flashy but may boost the USWNT’s ability to generate chance volume. If they’re better at progressing the ball, it stands to reason they’ll be closer to goal with the ball for more of the game, which generally speaking means more looks.
They can’t replace Swanson’s finishing, but the USWNT can be better at creating chances and hoping the math works out from there. Rodman seems to be the option that requires the least disruption to a team that frankly doesn’t need any more uncertainty.
Pressing machine?
Andonovski’s best periods as a coach, whether with the USWNT or in NWSL, have involved a withering high press. The USWNT hasn’t been as overwhelming on that front as they were in the past, but that’s by design: Swanson deserves all the flowers you can give her, but she’s not a pressing monster.
Swanson’s numbers with the ball are outrageous, but as a pressing force, she’s more in the category of denying passing lanes and funneling play towards someone else to force the turnover. If you build an attack around her, as Andonovski did, you accept that being a buzzsaw-style high press isn’t your forte.
Losing its ace finisher means the USWNT needs to bump its chance volume up and hope that the goals arrive, and in the last decade, it’s been reliably proven that you can create more chances by pressing than other methods. A beautiful, intricate build-up is the platonic ideal for soccer, but getting vertical after a turnover, with your opponent in disarray, is a lot easier than connecting 25 passes in a row.
That brings us to pressing champion Lynn Williams. The NJ/NY Gotham FC forward lost virtually all of 2022 to injury, but in 2021 her NWSL per-90 xG was a virtual dead heat with Swanson’s in 2022 (Williams was at 0.56, Swanson at 0.59). She’d also be completing a front line featuring two other forwards who are very used to a high press: Smith and the Portland Thorns are experts at disrupting opposition build patterns, while Alex Morgan and the San Diego Wave are extraordinarily well-drilled as a pressing unit.
Going this route — which may also leave Rodman in the frame, given both her excellent pressing numbers as well as the Spirit’s move towards centering a high press in 2023 — requires changes elsewhere. Pressing isn’t just about effort; it takes so much work to get 11 players to do it perfectly as a group, and one error in a press can undo the whole thing.
Andonovski would need to consider the make-up of his entire team, rather than just his front line. Given the need to push up high as a unit, can you afford a slower player on the back line? One-on-one defending becomes far more important, as does winning headers and (in the midfield) quickness to get to second balls. Stamina, physical durability, and an unyielding focus all matter more for pressing teams than they do for mid-block sides.
On top of that, Williams is a) just barely back to playing after a torn hamstring tendon kept her out for months, and b) dealing with an elbow injury of unclear severity. She played through it with Gotham FC and was present and in uniform for the USWNT in this camp, but didn’t play. Maybe it’s nothing, or maybe not.
At her best, though, Williams changes the center of gravity in games through her pressing instincts. She makes the right choice about when to take the risk of pursuing the ball, and due to her speed and tough tackling, teams have to plan around avoiding her or risk a series of turnovers. Williams breaks other team’s schemes in a way that makes the rest of the team more dangerous, and a high-pressing USWNT could take advantage of a non-summer World Cup (average highs around 58-59 degrees in the cities the USWNT would play in) to grind opponents into pulp.
Get weird with it
Andonovski has other options here as well. Alyssa Thompson is legitimately in the mix rather than getting call-ups to help her down the road. A healthy Megan Rapinoe was unstoppable for OL Reign late last season, and over the last year has been Swanson’s only peer as a set piece taker in the U.S. player pool. Given the fine margins and the USWNT’s laundry list of potential targets, a dead ball expert on her level will get serious consideration.
However, there’s one option that feels like a longshot even though it shouldn’t be. The USWNT has a series of fullbacks vying to be second-choice, while one of their starters is known to prefer playing further up the field.
Crystal Dunn’s return to an attacking role might read as fan service, but she’s also been so good as an attacker that it deserves to be thought about extensively. The USWNT would lose something at the back — Andonovski starts Dunn at left back not out of cruelty, but because she is the best left back on the team — but it could also gain something with her restored to a more free, attack-first role that she clearly desires. The talent as a Swanson-style goals/assists double threat, the invention, the balance on the dribble, is all there.
Realistically, for Andonovski to take that step, he’d need a fullback to also step up in a big way. Casey Krueger was the most impressive of the group given minutes on Tuesday, but that’s a very small sample size, and she has a vanishingly small number of games to make the case that she is even going to make the 23-player roster, much less become a starter. Sofia Huerta and Kelley O’Hara seem to be the other candidates here, but it feels like they’ve fallen on Andonovski’s depth chart.
But since we’re getting out there, what if a 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 lifer like Andonovski concludes that he has to change his formation? If Andonovski’s solution to losing a starting forward is to simply pair Smith and Morgan and use the extra player somewhere else, the option to deploy a diamond 4-4-2 jumps out as a real possibility.
In a diamond, Andonovski has options. He could bring Julie Ertz into a midfield with Andi Sullivan and Lindsey Horan rather than having an either/or decision to make. He’s also looked at ways to get Rose Lavelle and Ashley Sanchez into games at the same time, and a diamond (with Lavelle deeper) makes that far easier. It also opens the door for Kristie Mewis to play in her best position, which in turn means another high-quality set piece taker is on the field more regularly.
“It’s hard for me to answer this question right at this moment, but once this camp is over and we review it, we hope to have a little better answer, or at least clearer understanding, of the direction that we want to take,” was how Andonovski closed his remarks on the team’s Swanson-less near-term future.
The coach has had a difficult tenure: the Covid-19 pandemic wiped away the perfect moment to institute a generational switch within the squad, the Olympics went worse than the bronze medal finish indicates, and Swanson is hardly the first locked-in starter to become unavailable or be majorly hampered this close to a big tournament since he took the job.
Sorting out how to adjust to the loss of such a crucial player while still improving a team that needs to get better will be his biggest challenge yet.
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