In the 1st quarterfinal battle, Croatia faces Brazil on Friday with kickoff from Education City Stadium set for 10 a.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Croatia vs. Brazil odds, and make our best World Cup bets, picks and predictions.
Croatia finished 2nd in Group F play, recording 2 draws (both 0-0) and a win. They ended group stage play with 4 goals scored and 1 allowed, all in their sole win over Canada. They outlasted Japan in the Round of 16 on penalty kicks. Croatia ended with 17 shots (4 on target) and 59% possession. They won 3-1 in penalties.
Brazil, No. 1 in the FIFA rankings and the favorite to win the title, abused South Korea 4-1 in their Round of 16 matchup. Brazil had 3 more shots on target than South Korea and managed just 54% possession. Brazil won Group G by beating Serbia 2-0 and Switzerland 1-0 before allowing some players to get rest in a 1-0 loss to Cameroon.
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Croatia vs. Brazil odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1:22 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Croatia +750 (bet $100 to win $750) | Brazil -270 (bet $270 to win $100) | Draw +420
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -130 | U: +110)
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Prediction
Brazil 2, Croatia 0
Moneyline (ML)
PASS.
There’s no value on the moneyline. Brazil scored 4 on South Korea with ease, all in the 1st half. They are far more talented than Croatia.
Aside from 4 against Canada, Croatia didn’t score in the group stage. That justifies the value of these moneyline odds. That said, ultimately this is a pass.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (+110).
Brazil might be a high-paced side, but they haven’t dominated most games from an offensive standpoint. They went Under this total in all group stage games and only beat Switzerland 1-0.
Their match with Switzerland should be similar to this match with Croatia as both the Swiss and Croatian strength comes in their technical midfield. There were just 5 shots on target in that battle.
For Croatia, they have gone Under this total in 3 of their 4 World Cup matches and had 2 group stage matches ended without a single goal. The best offensive team Croatia has faced, Belgium, ended with just 3 shots on target.
Expect both defenses to come to play, and the UNDER 2.5 (+110) is the best value on the table in this battle.
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