Croatia battles Spain in the UEFA Nations League final on Sunday. Kickoff is set for 2:45 p.m. ET from De Kuip in Rotterdam, Netherlands. Below, we preview BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Croatia vs. Spain odds, and make our best soccer bets, picks and predictions.
Croatia took down the Netherlands 4-2 in extra time Wednesday to advance to the final. It is one of the best teams in Europe and proved that during the World Cup, reaching the semifinals and losing 3-0 to Argentina, which won the tournament. Croatia was 4-1-1 in Nations League group stage play and is led by long-time captain M Luka Modric.
Spain took down Italy 2-1 in full time, more than doubling the Italian’s shots on goal (7-3). It didn’t quite perform up to pair in the World Cup, making the knockout stage but losing to Morocco in the first round. It went 3-1-2 (2 draws) in group stage play. M Gavi, M Rodri and F Alvaro Morata will be the names to keep an eye on for the Spanish side.
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Croatia vs. Spain odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Croatia +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Spain +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Draw +230
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +105 | U: -145)
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Croatia vs. Spain picks and predictions
Prediction
Spain 1, Croatia 0
Moneyline (ML)
LEAN SPAIN (+105).
Spain’s talent is just a level above Croatia’s. Gavi plays for Barcelona and Rodri is on Manchester City, both clubs that won their respective league. Spain had a dominant performance against Italy as well, possessing the ball for 62% of the match.
While Croatia won, it didn’t quite have that convincing performance. Also, Modric is 37 years old and will eventually start to slow down, likely being given all the minutes he can handle for the 2nd time in 5 days.
With the value here, take SPAIN (+105).
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (-145).
While I don’t see Croatia coming out on top, what it has consistently done well and why it performed well in the World Cup is that it forces its opponent to play at its pace. Expect that on Sunday.
Croatia has gone Under this total in 3 of 4 games in 2023 and went under in 4 of the 7 World Cup matches is was part of. It also had 54% of the possession against the Netherlands. It should slow the pace down.
Also, while Morata should get the start up top for Spain, he hasn’t produced well lately, tallying just 13 goals in 36 matches for Atletico Madrid. Put it all together and take the UNDER 2.5 (-145).
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